Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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537
FXUS64 KLUB 151031
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
431 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MINOR TROUGH EMBEDDED IN A FAST SEMI-ZONAL FLOW WAS IN THE PROCESS
OF CROSSING THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHARP MOISTURE VOIDS
IN THE LOWEST 10K FEET HAVE LIMITED THE EFFECTS OF THIS WAVE TO A
SWATH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME VIRGA AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL
88DS. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE AFTER SUNRISE AND THE
DEPARTURE OF MID CLOUDS...SELY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW AND AID
IN DEVELOPING A LEGITIMATE WARM FRONT FORECAST TO LATER STALL FROM
NEAR CHILDRESS NORTHWEST TO DALHART BY MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY BE CONSUMED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT ALREADY FOUND
CREEPING SOUTH AT 09Z FROM NEAR CHEYENNE TO KIMBALL. BUT UNTIL
THEN...MUCH OF THE CWA WILL FALL UNDER BREEZY WEST/DOWNSLOPE WINDS
AND THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SIMILAR TO OUR
LAST ARCTIC FROPA ON TUE...THE EVENING ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT
ARGUES NUDGING MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER. MOS WAS 3-5 DEG TOO COOL
YESTERDAY AND TODAY/S PATTERN SEEMS JUSTIFIED FOR HIGHS STILL
NORTH OF THE ALREADY MILD MOS NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK
WHERE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED FROM 15 TO 20 MPH.

BY EVENING...WE OPTED TO SPEED UP THE ARCTIC FROPA BY A FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE USUAL MODEL SHORTCOMINGS OF
THESE DENSE AND SHALLOW AIRMASSES ACCELERATING SOUTH ONCE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES IN THE EVENING. RECALL THIS WAS THE CASE
LAST TUE WHEN THE 12Z-18Z MODELS WERE 2-3 HOURS LATE WITH FROPA.
GIVEN THE NUMBER OF SAT EVENING EVENTS AROUND THE AREA...WE/D
PREFER PEOPLE PREPARE FOR AN EARLIER FROPA ANYWAYS. POST-FRONTAL
STRATUS APPEARS INEVITABLE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE SHARP INVERSION
LAYER...BUT DEEPER SATURATION AND LIFT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z SUNDAY ONCE A RESPECTABLE TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF LIFT
THAT WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. STRONGEST LIFT
CENTERED BETWEEN 700 AND 500 HPA WILL ENTER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY
12Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
BEST LIFT WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z MONDAY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA AND STRONGEST LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH GOOD SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ONLY COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A WEAK WARM
NOSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF A MORTON...LUBBOCK...GUTHRIE LINE...THAT MAY RESULT
IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF SLEET EARLY ON IN THE DAY SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
AS STRONGER LIFT STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL...EXPECT TO SEE COLUMN GO BELOW
FREEZING AND A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONABLE BUT BUMPED UP AMOUNTS SO THAT WE ARE
APPROACHING ONE INCH FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HELD OFF ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR
NOW BUT CONCERN IS THAT THE STRONG LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME PERIODS
OF MODERATE SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON THAT COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME ISSUES FOR
ROAD SURFACES. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT RELAXES THROUGH
THE DAY SO BLOWING SNOW DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE.
WILL NEED TO EVALUATE THE 12Z DATA TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DECIDE IF
WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED.

FLIP SIDE IS THAT THE TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER
00Z MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO PRECIP ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM. STILL MAY BE SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS
BEHIND THE TROF WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH
BUT MONDAY MORNING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS ACROSS ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. KEPT ON
THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS MONDAY MORNING. FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK...QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH OVERHEAD
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE
THAN INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE A
COLD FRONT THAT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD
KEEP THE WARM UP IN CHECK.

LAST THING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE UNITED STATES THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF DRIVES ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS WARM. THERE IS A GENERAL INDICATION
THAT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ABLE TO WORK NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THIS STORM IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT TIMING DIFFERENCES
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT. SUPERBLEND WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW IN THE
EXTENDED UNTIL THE MODELS CAN SORT THINGS OUT BUT I DID REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF POPS FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  18  27  14  36 /   0  10  50  10  10
TULIA         66  20  28  16  36 /   0  10  50  20   0
PLAINVIEW     67  21  29  18  37 /   0  10  50  20   0
LEVELLAND     70  24  31  22  38 /   0  10  50  20  10
LUBBOCK       71  24  30  21  39 /   0  10  50  20  10
DENVER CITY   69  26  35  23  39 /   0   0  40  20  10
BROWNFIELD    70  25  33  23  39 /   0   0  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     60  25  31  21  39 /   0  10  50  20   0
SPUR          65  26  33  24  41 /   0   0  50  20  10
ASPERMONT     64  29  35  24  42 /  10  10  40  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14

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