Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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931
FXUS64 KLUB 251125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH STEADY NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AT PVW AND LBB...HIGHER
AT CDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX SPIRALING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AHEAD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE HAD
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRINGES OF A NORTHERLY LLJ OCCUPYING
WESTERN OK. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SPELLS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN
MAX TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THICKNESSES BY
LATE AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MILD
SURFACE RIDGING THEN OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WEST TX TONIGHT FROM NEW
MEXICO COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
DRY AIR AND MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
S/SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.
LOCALLY...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL AID TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
70 BY WED. AND LOWER 70S BOTH TUE/WED OFF THE CAPROCK. IMPRESSIVE
WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEVERELY DIVERGE ON THURSDAY. GFS IS MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE WEST COAST TROF CLOSER TO W TX ALONG
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ECM IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. IN
EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT CAN SNEAK SOUTH FROM THE PERSISTENT NWLY
FLOW...PART OF NORTHERN STREAM JET. HAVE REFLECTED COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY IN THE 50S... AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93

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