Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

650
FXUS64 KLUB 140850
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OF THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE FORECAST ARE TEMPERATURES THAT
ARE BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  WEST TEXAS
MESONET STATIONS AT FRIONA AND MULESHOE ARE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING
AND HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DROPPING HOUR BY HOUR.  AT 315 AM...MULESHOE
WAS COMING IN AT 34 DEGREES WHILE FRIONA WAS SITTING AT 35.
TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR TEMPS TO FALL WHEN WIND SPEEDS GO BELOW 5 MPH
AND THEN JUMP BACK UP INTO THE MID 30S IF WIND SPEEDS GO ABOVE
THAT.  IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE AT THE MERCY OF LOCAL
TERRAIN IMPACTS OR ANYTHING THAT CAN STIR UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE AT ALL.  BIGGEST QUESTION IS DO WE GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE ANY KIND OF FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING OR HOLD OFF.
BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE A FEW AREAS THAT DO HIT FREEZING
ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES
BUT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED SO WILL NOT ISSUE
ANYTHING...FOR NOW.

REST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.  DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE COOL START TO
THE MORNING WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO MUCH EVEN
UNDER FULL SUNSHINE.  WILL SEE RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS TO SOME MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.  CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MODELS DO KEEP SOMEWHAT
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND IN PLACE TOMORROW MORNING.  UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BUT HELD OFF GOING AS LOW AS
WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.  WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING AT LEAST
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS SURFACE WIND...TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS BUT SHOULD NOT CRATER LIKE
THEY HAVE THIS MORNING.  LOW TEMPS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM NEAR 40 TO NEAR 50 RESPECTIVELY.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE MINUSCULE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK ONCE A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OF PACIFIC ENERGY
BEGINS OCCUPYING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER FLOW WILL OTHERWISE
BE LARGELY PROGRESSIVE THANKS TO AN ENERGIZED POLAR JET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AT LEAST TWO DISTANT TROUGHS SHOULD
MUSTER THE STRENGTH TO DELIVER US COLD FRONTS...THE FIRST BY LATE
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER BY MONDAY. MOISTURE DEFICITS WITH THE FIRST
FRONT LOOK TOO HIGH FOR ANY PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER
FRONT MAY HAVE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY AS BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE STEADILY IMPROVE. THE BIGGEST FACTOR FOR PRECIP THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SRN PACIFIC
WAVES ENTERING THE DESERT SW. WITH MODEST RIDGING PROGGED ALONG
AND JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND LITTLE TO NO JET SUPPORT
ALOFT...OUR BELIEF IS THAT THIS TROUGHINESS WOULD SLOW AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE AND NOT REMAIN PROGRESSIVE A LA THE GFS.
RUNS OF THE ECM HAVE REMAINED STEADY WITH THIS ENERGY
SLOWING AND EVEN STALLING NEAR BAJA CA UPSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING
RIDGE. WE/RE INCLINED TO SIDE WITH THE SLOWER AND DRIER ECM
SOLUTION FOR NOW. AT THE VERY LEAST THE SECOND COLD FRONT BY MONDAY
COULD SET UP A PERIOD OF COOL AND MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
FLOW...BUT BETTER ASCENT FOR POPS MAY REMAIN TOO FAR WEST UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK.

ONLY CHANGE WORTH NOTING WAS TO BUMP UP HIGH TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ON
THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT. FAVORABLE POSITION OF
THE LL THERMAL RIDGE COMPLETE WITH A BONE-DRY MIXING LAYER LOOK
CLASSIC FOR STRONG DAYTIME TEMP RECOVERIES THAT AFTN FOLLOWING
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         73  41  81  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  41  81  47  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  38  82  47  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  44  82  49  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  42  82  48  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     77  47  85  49  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          75  45  83  49  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     75  47  85  52  90 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.