Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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263
FXUS64 KLUB 141750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW CLOUDS
BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW WILL LIKELY LINGER
ABOUT. CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KNOT CATEGORY. DRIER AIR AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS SHOULD ENSUE BY MID-LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH
TERMINALS...SO BE AWARE OF POSSIBLE LIGHT ICING IF HEADED NORTH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUED TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING AS CONFIRMED BY MOST WEST TX MESONET TEMPS RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. RAOBS FROM AMA AND MAF
HAVE SHOWN THE ARCTIC INVERSION ERODING NICELY FROM TOP-DOWN SINCE
ITS PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS THEME WILL ONLY AMPLIFY TODAY AS
WARM ADVECTION IMPROVES ON BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. KEPT MAX TEMPS ON
THE CAPROCK AOA MOS GUIDANCE AS EARLY MORNING STRATUS IS ALREADY
SEEN CLEARING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DEEPENING
SUBSIDENCE/DRIER AIR AROUND 800MB...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LESS OF
A FACTOR FOR A CHANGE. HIGHS FARTHER EAST LOOK TO BE HELD IN CHECK
A BIT MORE BY SELY WINDS STILL SOURCING CHILLY TRAJECTORIES FROM
THE DEPARTING CP AIRMASS.

LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM
WEST TO EAST AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ZONAL
FLOW. THE TREND AMONG THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR THIS SHEARING WAVE
TO MERELY GRAZE OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE THE CORE OF ITS
ASCENT TRACKS MUCH FARTHER NORTH FROM SE COLORADO INTO THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. THIS PRESENTS OUR AREA WITH AN EVEN SMALLER
OPPORTUNITY FOR TOP-DOWN MOISTENING AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIP...SO THE
EARLIER SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF A WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN NIXED FOR
THE TIME BEING. MIN TEMPS WERE RAISED A COUPLE DEGREES AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RISING DEWPOINTS AND CLOUDS ALL COMBINE TO LIMIT
THE DEGREE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AS SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY HELPS TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S
TO MID 60S. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN HOW WARM
WE MAY GET SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT DRY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
USUALLY RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES COMING IN ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ONLY OTHER THING THAT MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN WILL
BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THAT A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT.

NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE NEXT CANADIAN AIRMASS
INTRUSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WILL HOLD THE FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AFTER SUNSET. FRONT WILL THEN SURGE
SOUTH AND WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO PUSH MIN TEMPS SUNDAY
MORNING BACK INTO THE 20S. THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...ANOTHER WAVE
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS SHOW THAT
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COLUMN BUT BE BELOW THE LEVELS
OF BEST LIFT ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK LIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH ENHANCE MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SO THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW
WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ALL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WE COULD SEE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AND THE ECMWF EVEN KEEPS SNOW GOING WELL INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST OF ALL THE MODELS WITH THE
TROF AXIS STILL WEST OF THE AREA UNTIL MID-DAY MONDAY WHILE ALL
THE OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WAVE EAST IF THE AREA BY SUNSET SUNDAY.
LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH ALONE BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH
SOME SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE LOCATION OF CHANCE EARLY IN THE DAY
SUNDAY. HELD THE BETTER CHANCE OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
ALSO TAPERED THE POPS OFF A BIT SLOWER SUNDAY EVENING. AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER...THERE COULD BE A FEW SPOTS THAT PICK UP
AN INCH BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STAY UNDER
THAT AMOUNT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM UP ON MONDAY WITH DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND A RETURN TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS WILL TRY TO MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL ONLY
KNOCK TEMPS BACK ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY. THIS
MEANS THAT LOW TEMPS WILL STILL FALL BELOW FREEZING BUT HIGHS WILL
MANAGE TO REMAIN IN THE 50S AND 60S BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  30  60  19  30 /   0  10  10  10  30
TULIA         40  30  58  21  29 /   0  10  10  10  30
PLAINVIEW     41  30  59  22  30 /   0  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     41  30  64  25  33 /   0  10   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       41  30  64  25  32 /   0  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   42  31  66  27  35 /   0  10   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    41  31  64  26  35 /   0  10   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     39  27  54  27  32 /   0  10  10  10  30
SPUR          41  29  60  28  34 /   0  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     42  28  61  30  36 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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