Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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434
FXUS64 KLUB 202329
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE KCDS TAF SITE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME
STORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WY AND CO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP SUPPORT THE E/SE MOVEMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN LINCOLN
COUNTY NWD THROUGH CLINES CORNERS...LAS VEGAS AND RATON. 12Z WRF-NAM
AS WELL AS VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE TTU-WRF EACH SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING MAINLY EWD BUT WITH A BIT OF A SWD COMPONENT AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER ATTM WITH SFC DEW POINT TEMPS MID
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...BUT WITH
THE UPPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT PRETTY FAR
EWD...EVEN IF THEY DO NOT REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES STILL LOOKS FINE
ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTN. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS/WRN PANHANDLE AND
LIKELY NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INROADS EWD. PROGGED CAPE UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-27 POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS A HAIL
POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CAP WITH THE MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERSION HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 750 MB. WHETHER THAT
DETAIL WORKS OUT OR IS TOO SMALL TO HOLD STORMS AT BAY IS AN
IMPORTANT QUESTION. CERTAINLY THE MODELS ARE VERY LIMITED IN THEIR
QPF AMOUNT PROGS /THEY ALSO VARY WIDELY IN THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL
PLACEMENT OF INITIATION/. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TRY TO GET GOING LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
LACKING CONFIDENCE IN A LOCATION OTHER THAN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE WILL RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING TUESDAY AFTN.

LONG TERM...
TODAYS FORECAST WAS NOT THE EASIEST BUT DEFINITELY WAS NOT THE
HARDEST. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE LITTLE...AT MOST
RETREAT WESTWARD...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUMP IN FROM THE GULF. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD PEAK DURING THIS TIME. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH RIDGING ALOFT...OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
THAT FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONVECT AS CAPE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM
PUSHES A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT INTO THE REGION AND COLLIDES IT WITH
THE DRYLINE. WHILE NO CONVECTION IS SHOWN BY THE NAM IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY
COLLISION WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP ALOFT. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW A FRONT BUT DOES PUSH THE DRYLINE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT SLOWER WITH THE FROPA. WHILE THE
PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IS UNCERTAIN...EACH SOLUTION SHOWN BY
THE MODEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CONVECTION AT LEAST OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST SO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THAT AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL
SETTLE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING
A PUSH EASTWARD LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WINDY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE WEEKEND THUS FAR LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  77  43  80 /  20  20  20  20
TULIA         42  78  48  80 /  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     44  78  50  81 /  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     45  80  51  83 /   0  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       47  80  53  85 /  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   45  80  51  82 /   0  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    46  80  53  84 /   0  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     48  79  55  81 /  20  20  40  30
SPUR          47  78  56  84 /  10  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     49  80  59  86 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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