Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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596
FXUS64 KLUB 160434
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR BUT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT BOTH TAF
SITES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
SATURDAY EVENING AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND IMPROVING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMERGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE HELPED TO SUPRESS THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS EXERTED A STRONG INFLUENCE ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS AND PROVIDED DRY WEATHER. THIS
MODEST PATTERN SHIFT HAS ALLOWED THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH THE 18Z SATELLITE DERIVED
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWING VALUES OF 100-120 PERCENT
OF NORMAL NOW SPILLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
THE IMPROVED MOISTURE ALOFT...COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH THAT
HAS ALSO BEEN DRAGGED EASTWARD AND WAS TRAILING FROM THE CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...A FEW SHOWERS WERE
ALREADY NOTED DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF LAZBUDDIE TO MULESHOE LINE AS
OF 1940Z. THIS ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING IN AN ATMOSPHERE
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS /NEAR 1.4 INCHES/...MODEST
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG/...WEAK WIND SHEAR AND RATHER
LIGHT STEERING FLOW. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ORGANIZATION TO THE
ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE SLOW STORM MOTIONS COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY...DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 DEGREES ALONG WITH A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION CORES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
EASTWARD...THOUGH THE EASTWARD EXTENT MAY BE THWARTED SOMEWHAT AS IT
ADVANCES OUT OF THE THETAE RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS A LESS
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST NWP SUGGEST THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION WILL STAY ALONG AND WEST OF A QUITAQUE TO LUBBOCK TO NEW
MOORE LINE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
NEW MEXICO MAY ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE INTO A SMALL MCS AND TRANSLATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD FURTHER ENHANCE STORM
CHANCES FOR MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THE BEST UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...WILL THEN SAG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP
AT LEAST LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WHILE ALSO EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FA.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS COULD LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WELL INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IF THIS
DOES HAPPEN IT WOULD BOTH KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM WHAT ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS WELL AS LIMIT RENEWED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT OVERLY
HIGH...THOUGH WE DID TRIM FORECAST HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL AGAIN BE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...LIKELY DISPLACED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY. IN
ADDITION...ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HOW TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY PLAYS OUT WILL HELP
DICTATE THE DETAILS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO
LOWER 70S ON THE CAPROCK...AND LOW TO MIDDLE 70S COMMON IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 90S.

LONG TERM...
RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING AS GOOD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY WORK WEEK
AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SWD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN BY SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT WILL SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TRANS
PECOS...PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY AFTN. WILL HOLD
ONTO SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS EXTREME SRN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW MOVING SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. MID
AND UPPER LEVELS PROGGED TO BEGIN DRYING MONDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ROTATING NWD AROUND THE FCST AREA FROM NM NEWD TO THE
CNTL HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT GETS PICKED UP BY STRONGER WESTERLIES
ALOFT. AS A RESULT APPEARS UPCOMING WEEK DOMINATED BY VERY LIMITED
RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  93  64  92  65 /  30  20  20  10  10
TULIA         66  94  66  93  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  93  65  92  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  94  66  91  66 /  30  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  95  69  93  69 /  30  20  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  93  66  92  67 /  30  20  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    67  95  66  92  67 /  20  20  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     71 100  71  98  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
SPUR          68  97  69  95  69 /  20  20  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  72  97  72 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01

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