Area Forecast Discussion
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579
FXUS64 KLUB 132131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIKE YESTERDAY AROUND THIS TIME...THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH A LINGERING THIN STRATUS DECK
NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE PER 21Z VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS SUCH...TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. SLIGHTLY DEEPENED SFC LEE TROUGHING
HAS LED TO MODESTLY BREEZY S-SW WINDS LATE THIS AFTN...WITH SPEEDS
OF 10-15 MPH BEING COMMON.

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE UA TROUGH
TRANSLATING EAST TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE THIS AFTN. IT
IS THIS SAME STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
AND CONSEQUENTLY MUDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA. THE UA
DISTURBANCE IS ANTICIPATED TO CLOSE OFF WHILST MOVING ENE ACROSS NRN
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...TO ACROSS THE NRN TX PANHANDLE/SRN OK PANHANDLE
TOMORROW. THIS TRACK IS A TAD FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS. TONIGHT...SHALLOW YET PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH THE LLJ KICKING UP INTO THE 20-40 KT RANGE WILL LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUD FORMATION AND PERHAPS FOG. THOUGH...NOT
SURE HOW DENSE THE FOG WILL BE ABLE TO GET...GIVEN THE SRLY SFC WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A BIT COURTESY OF A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROMOTED BY SFC LEE TROUGHING. CONCURRENTLY...UL SUPPORT WILL
COMMENCE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FA AOA MIDNIGHT...LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID
TIME-FRAME...BUT THE IMPINGEMENT OF A BREEZY PACIFIC FRONT FILTERING
IN FROM WEST TO EAST COULD SERVE AS A CONVECTION FOCUS. THUS...THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY COULD BLOSSOM INTO A LINE OF STORMS /PERHAPS A
RAGGED LINE/ THAT WILL MOVE ENE FROM THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT TO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. ANY LINGERING FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARED OUT BY THE PACIFIC FRONT.
FURTHERMORE...WITH STEEPENED LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH UL
SUPPORT...MUCAPE OF AOA 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AOA 40
KTS...COULD SUPPORT STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...WITH WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

TOMORROW AFTN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE...LEADING TO RATHER BREEZY WRLY WIND SPEEDS
THAT COULD FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS /31 MPH OR GREATER/...AS
HINTED AT BY MOS GUIDANCE. AS SUCH...SOME LIGHT DUST COULD BECOME
LOFTED IN THE AIR AND CREATE THAT BROWN HUE WE ARE ALL TOO FAMILIAR
WITH. BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A
BIT...THOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY /15-20 MPH OR SO/.
ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPS ARE IN STORE /UPPER 30S NW TO LOWER 50S
SE/ FOLLOWED BY A COOLER SUNDAY THAN WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THE
LAST FEW DAYS /50S AND 60S/. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAYS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH AXIS EXPECTED TO PASS LATE TUESDAY. THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE WEEK STILL APPEAR RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY
WITH NO THREAT OF FOG AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE WEAK UPPER TROUGH DUE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AT LEAST ONE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THAT MAY BE CAPABLE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY EASTERN ZONES...WHILE A LATE WEEK SYSTEM
STILL CONTINUES TO GENERATE EXTREME RUN TO RUN AND SOLUTION TO
SOLUTION CHANGES SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY INDIVIDUAL OUTCOME REMAINS
SMALL. OUR BLENDED LONG RANGE SOLUTION REMAINS REASONABLY CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GENERALLY PREFERRED AT THIS TIME. WE CHOSE
TO MINOR OUT SHOWER CHANCES SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
UNTIL WE CAN RELY BETTER ON LIFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY STILL SEEMS A REASONABLE BET AND TEMPERATURES BY
EARLY FRIDAY MAY BE THREATENINGLY CLOSE TO CAPABLE OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TYPES. BUT AS NOTED ABOVE WE ARE NOT SEEING ANY
SIGNALS THAT GIVE CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR OUTCOME LET ALONE ONE
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...WILL RAISE CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE RATHER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE /SPEEDS FLIRTING WITH WIND
ADVISORY SPEEDS OF 31 MPH/. HOWEVER...THERE LIES SOME UNCERTAINTY
WRT HOW FUELS WILL RESPOND ESPECIALLY SINCE FUELS ENCOMPASS ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS
WHICH IF FAVORABLE...WILL ONLY AID IN MITIGATING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  55  27  51  24 /  60  20   0   0   0
TULIA         44  56  29  53  24 /  60  20   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  57  30  54  25 /  60  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  58  31  54  27 /  60  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  60  33  55  27 /  50  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  60  33  56  30 /  50  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    44  60  33  55  29 /  50  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  63  36  57  29 /  30  60   0   0   0
SPUR          46  63  36  58  29 /  30  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     54  66  38  59  32 /  20  40   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05

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