Area Forecast Discussion
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125
FXUS64 KLUB 240912
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
KINEMATIC PROFILES LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY WHEN NO CONVECTION
WAS OBSERVED. THERE IS STILL LITTLE TO NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH
THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHED WELL BACK WEST INTO NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HEIGHTS FROM THE
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THERE WILL STILL BE A VERY SMALL
AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK
WITH. FURTHERMORE...HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL TRY TO WORK
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. LESS HIGH CLOUD
COVER WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE MIXING AND HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR WILL GIVE RISE TO SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITIES ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THIS MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK WHILE A
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST CLOSE TO OUR
WESTERN BORDER. EARLIER RUNS INDICATED A WAVE EDGING NEAR ENOUGH TO
OUR BORDER MONDAY FOR CHANCE OF THUNDER...THOUGH LATEST WRF/NAM
HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY. STILL...WE ADDED LOW MENTION MONDAY
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES. LARGEST ISSUE THIS FORECAST REMAINS
PASSAGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT AND ALSO THE MONSOON FLOW LIKELY BENDING THROUGH THE AREA.
PROBLEMS START EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. ALTHOUGH
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS IDEA...A FEW LED NOTABLY
BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS...REMAIN MUCH QUICKER WITH AN OPEN TROUGH
PASSING TO OUR NORTH AT LEAST A DAY AHEAD OF THE OTHER CAMP.
ALTHOUGH WE DONT HAVE TREMENDOUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY OUTCOME...OUR
LEAN IS TOWARDS THE MAJORITY SOLUTION WHICH DELAYS AN OUTFLOW
ENHANCED COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA UNTIL THURSDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED
WEDNESDAY A BIT DRIER AND WARMER WHILE FAVORING SHOWER MENTION FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL. ALSO EXTENDED LOW THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. RETAINED DRY AND WARMER TREND FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        92  67  92  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  10
TULIA         94  69  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  70  94  68  94 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  69  93  68  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  95  70  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   95  71  94  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    95  71  95  69  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    102  74 101  73 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  73  98  71  98 /  10  10  10   0   0
ASPERMONT    101  75 100  73 100 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05

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