Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Next Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off

Skip product version selection by date and time.   

667
FXUS64 KLUB 212035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
235 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
MESHING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A 100+ KNOT
JET STREAK EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED A SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT REACHING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE
UNTIL SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
OWING TO A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE.

COOLING WILL ENSUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLUMN MOISTENING...
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SEEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW COME MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIQUID INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAINTAINING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT DAYBREAK. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AREAS EAST OF
ASPERMONT TO ABOUT GUTHRIE WILL COOL QUITE ENOUGH TO SEE MUCH
SNOW...BUT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET
BULB COOLING SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER TO ALLOW
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ATTEMPTS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...WHILE ALL SNOW FALLS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
DEPARTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY RUSH HOUR.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN PARMER COUNTY...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN REGARDS TO DEFORMATION
BANDING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE
EAST...VALID FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT RATHER
STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS
WITH A BLOCKING TYPE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIF. THAT UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS...BUT EVEN THE
MORE ERN SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR WEST. ANY SNOW FIELD/WET
GROUND MAY AFFECT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE THOSE AREAS IN PARTICULAR.
MIDLER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  26   8  34  13 / 100 100  30   0   0
TULIA         27  28  12  35  21 / 100 100  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     27  28  15  36  22 / 100 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     28  28  15  38  21 / 100 100  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       29  29  17  38  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   28  29  18  38  24 / 100 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    28  29  18  39  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
CHILDRESS     31  33  22  44  28 / 100 100  20  10   0
SPUR          30  30  22  43  26 / 100 100  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     32  37  26  46  27 / 100 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

31/07

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.