Area Forecast Discussion
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983
FXUS64 KLUB 310850
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  64  95  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         96  67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  66  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  66  98  68  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  98  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  66  98  67  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  66  99  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  73 101  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  68  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33

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