Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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914
FXUS64 KLUB 251906
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH.  A DROPPING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT/S AND
THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES.  IN GENERAL...WEAK CONVERGENGE IS
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD OF ALTOCU HAS
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  30  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  30  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  30  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51

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