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599
FXUS64 KLUB 311752
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS VEERING SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ALL TREATS AND NO TRICKS FOR THIS HALLOWEEN DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BATTLE THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
WIN OUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL BE TOO LATE TO PREVENT A FREEZE FROM
OCCURRING.

LONG TERM...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LITTLE DISAGREEMENT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST FEATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE QUITE
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ALLOWED US TO RAMP SHOWER CHANCES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WHAT APPEARS THE MOST PROMISING PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANCE...LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
ZONES. FOLLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE PASSAGE SATURDAY WE WILL ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING LONG-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. AN EJECTING WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY APPEARS
CAPABLE OF ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A LOW CONDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCE
SUNDAY AND IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
IN ADDITION TO THOSE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILTED
AS NORTHERN STREAM DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATED...THUS SHOULD LEAD
TO NOTABLE DRYING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...STARTING TUESDAY WE HAVE
LESS SOLUTION SIMILARITY WITH HOW LOW PRESSURE CUTTING OFF ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEHAVE. THIS MORNINGS TRENDS
INDICATE MODEST SIMILARITY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EASTWARD DRIFT TOWARDS OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE SOLUTION
SPREADS EXIST...THE IDEA OF A WEAK APPROACHING UPPER LOW LOOKS
SUPPORTED ENOUGH FOR A LOW MENTION FOR SHOWERS. WE ARE NOT WILLING
TO ADD MORE THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THE PHASING PROBLEMS WEVE
BEEN SEEING WITH THIS PATTERN BETWEEN THE ACTIVE AND DEAMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM AND A CUTOFF SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL...THE
INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK WAS THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  33  63  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     63  34  64  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       64  35  63  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   64  36  65  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    64  36  65  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     62  34  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          64  35  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     65  36  63  47  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
972
FXUS64 KLUB 311118
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
618 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ALL TREATS AND NO TRICKS FOR THIS HALLOWEEN DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BATTLE THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
WIN OUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL BE TOO LATE TO PREVENT A FREEZE FROM
OCCURRING.

LONG TERM...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LITTLE DISAGREEMENT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST FEATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE QUITE
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ALLOWED US TO RAMP SHOWER CHANCES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WHAT APPEARS THE MOST PROMISING PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANCE...LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
ZONES. FOLLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE PASSAGE SATURDAY WE WILL ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING LONG-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. AN EJECTING WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY APPEARS
CAPABLE OF ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A LOW CONDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCE
SUNDAY AND IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
IN ADDITION TO THOSE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILTED
AS NORTHERN STREAM DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATED...THUS SHOULD LEAD
TO NOTABLE DRYING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...STARTING TUESDAY WE HAVE
LESS SOLUTION SIMILARITY WITH HOW LOW PRESSURE CUTTING OFF ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEHAVE. THIS MORNINGS TRENDS
INDICATE MODEST SIMILARITY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EASTWARD DRIFT TOWARDS OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE SOLUTION
SPREADS EXIST...THE IDEA OF A WEAK APPROACHING UPPER LOW LOOKS
SUPPORTED ENOUGH FOR A LOW MENTION FOR SHOWERS. WE ARE NOT WILLING
TO ADD MORE THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THE PHASING PROBLEMS WEVE
BEEN SEEING WITH THIS PATTERN BETWEEN THE ACTIVE AND DEAMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM AND A CUTOFF SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL...THE
INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK WAS THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  33  63  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     63  34  64  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       64  35  63  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   64  36  65  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    64  36  65  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     62  34  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          64  35  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     65  36  63  47  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
062
FXUS64 KLUB 310954
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ALL TREATS AND NO TRICKS FOR THIS HALLOWEEN DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BATTLE THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
WIN OUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL BE TOO LATE TO PREVENT A FREEZE FROM
OCCURRING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LITTLE DISAGREEMENT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST FEATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE QUITE
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ALLOWED US TO RAMP SHOWER CHANCES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WHAT APPEARS THE MOST PROMISING PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANCE...LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
ZONES. FOLLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE PASSAGE SATURDAY WE WILL ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING LONG-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. AN EJECTING WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY APPEARS
CAPABLE OF ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A LOW CONDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCE
SUNDAY AND IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
IN ADDITION TO THOSE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILTED
AS NORTHERN STREAM DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATED...THUS SHOULD LEAD
TO NOTABLE DRYING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...STARTING TUESDAY WE HAVE
LESS SOLUTION SIMILARITY WITH HOW LOW PRESSURE CUTTING OFF ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEHAVE. THIS MORNINGS TRENDS
INDICATE MODEST SIMILARITY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EASTWARD DRIFT TOWARDS OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE SOLUTION
SPREADS EXIST...THE IDEA OF A WEAK APPROACHING UPPER LOW LOOKS
SUPPORTED ENOUGH FOR A LOW MENTION FOR SHOWERS. WE ARE NOT WILLING
TO ADD MORE THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THE PHASING PROBLEMS WEVE
BEEN SEEING WITH THIS PATTERN BETWEEN THE ACTIVE AND DEAMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM AND A CUTOFF SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL...THE
INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK WAS THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  33  63  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     63  34  64  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       64  35  63  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   64  36  65  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    64  36  65  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     62  34  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          64  35  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     65  36  63  47  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
747
FXUS64 KLUB 310442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS TAF
CYCLE. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS OF 2 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE CWA ASIDE
FROM THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE
55-60F RANGE AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT HOWEVER SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM OF ANY T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
EVEN IN STONEWALL COUNTY....AND WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT
BELOW MENTION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE MODEST MOISTURE HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
NOTHING SUGGESTS A HARD FREEZE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE THE RULE.

LIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS
UNDER JUST A FEW STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
TRENDED FEWER ON THE 12Z RUNS WHICH NOW DEPICT A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION FROM THE PREVIOUSLY FAST GFS AND SLOW ECM. THE LATEST ECM
STILL CLOSES OFF MORE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NRN
MEXICO BY TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOOT POINT FOR
OUR AREA AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME COMPLETE WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
MUCH LOWER PWATS. POPS WERE REFINED A BIT TO BETTER ILLUSTRATE A
CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF PRECIP LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE CORE
OF HEIGHT FALLS REACHES THE AREA AND PROVIDES THE DEEPEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT. A STRONG UL JET STREAK OF 130 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME
APPEARS CLASSIC FOR MAINTAINING A ROUND OF TRAINING PRECIP
EMBEDDED IN DEEP SWLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS TROUGH IS STILL
LURKING OFF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE...OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSISTENCY DEPICTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WARRANT
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LIKELY POPS WERE
CONSIDERED...BUT SINCE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 5-6 DAYS
OUT THERE IS A VALID CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
EMERGING. SO WE/LL LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS ON THE ROTISSERIE FOR NOW
UNTIL THEY SHOW BETTER CARAMELIZATION.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FRIDAY NIGHT/S
COOL SURFACE RIDGE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO DEPART THE REGION A TOUCH
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED WHICH COULD COMPLETELY
STAVE OFF A LIGHT FREEZE FOR OUR NERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP NEAR
FREEZING LOWS INTACT FOR THE CHILDRESS-SILVERTON AREA AS MOS IS
STILL COMING IN QUITE CHILLY THERE. ALSO...SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUN NIGHT SHOULD GARNER SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER FORCING
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. CHILLY COLD FROPA BY EARLY TUE
SHOULD STUNT MAX TEMPS WHICH MAY PLAY A HAND IN THE THREAT OF A
FREEZE BY TUE NIGHT UNDER LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER SOIL
MOISTURE FROM ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY OFFSET STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALTOGETHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  61  39  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  60  36  62  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     39  60  36  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  62  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  63  37  64  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  63  38  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    41  62  38  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     42  63  34  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          43  63  36  63  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  65  36  64  51 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
486
FXUS64 KLUB 302324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
624 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FRIDAY AS THEY GRADUALLY VEER TO
EASTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS OF 2 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE CWA ASIDE
FROM THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE
55-60F RANGE AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT HOWEVER SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM OF ANY T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
EVEN IN STONEWALL COUNTY....AND WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT
BELOW MENTION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE MODEST MOISTURE HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
NOTHING SUGGESTS A HARD FREEZE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE THE RULE.

LIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS
UNDER JUST A FEW STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS.

LONG TERM...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
TRENDED FEWER ON THE 12Z RUNS WHICH NOW DEPICT A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION FROM THE PREVIOUSLY FAST GFS AND SLOW ECM. THE LATEST ECM
STILL CLOSES OFF MORE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NRN
MEXICO BY TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOOT POINT FOR
OUR AREA AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME COMPLETE WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
MUCH LOWER PWATS. POPS WERE REFINED A BIT TO BETTER ILLUSTRATE A
CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF PRECIP LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE CORE
OF HEIGHT FALLS REACHES THE AREA AND PROVIDES THE DEEPEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT. A STRONG UL JET STREAK OF 130 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME
APPEARS CLASSIC FOR MAINTAINING A ROUND OF TRAINING PRECIP
EMBEDDED IN DEEP SWLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS TROUGH IS STILL
LURKING OFF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE...OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSISTENCY DEPICTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WARRANT
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LIKELY POPS WERE
CONSIDERED...BUT SINCE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 5-6 DAYS
OUT THERE IS A VALID CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
EMERGING. SO WE/LL LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS ON THE ROTISSERIE FOR NOW
UNTIL THEY SHOW BETTER CARAMELIZATION.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FRIDAY NIGHT/S
COOL SURFACE RIDGE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO DEPART THE REGION A TOUCH
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED WHICH COULD COMPLETELY
STAVE OFF A LIGHT FREEZE FOR OUR NERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP NEAR
FREEZING LOWS INTACT FOR THE CHILDRESS-SILVERTON AREA AS MOS IS
STILL COMING IN QUITE CHILLY THERE. ALSO...SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUN NIGHT SHOULD GARNER SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER FORCING
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. CHILLY COLD FROPA BY EARLY TUE
SHOULD STUNT MAX TEMPS WHICH MAY PLAY A HAND IN THE THREAT OF A
FREEZE BY TUE NIGHT UNDER LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER SOIL
MOISTURE FROM ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY OFFSET STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALTOGETHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  61  39  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  60  36  62  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     39  60  36  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  62  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  63  37  64  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  63  38  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    41  62  38  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     42  63  34  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          43  63  36  63  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  65  36  64  51 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
142
FXUS64 KLUB 302045
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AS OF 2 PM...THE COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH CLEARED THE CWA ASIDE
FROM THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE RUNNING IN THE
55-60F RANGE AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SWD
MOVING FRONT HOWEVER SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SO CHANCES LOOK VERY SLIM OF ANY T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
EVEN IN STONEWALL COUNTY....AND WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK A BIT
BELOW MENTION. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WHILE MODEST MOISTURE HOLDS IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. SLACKENING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP
PRETTY QUICKLY. NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
NOTHING SUGGESTS A HARD FREEZE IN THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE THE RULE.

LIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO...WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S FOR HIGHS
UNDER JUST A FEW STREAMING HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE
TRENDED FEWER ON THE 12Z RUNS WHICH NOW DEPICT A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION FROM THE PREVIOUSLY FAST GFS AND SLOW ECM. THE LATEST ECM
STILL CLOSES OFF MORE ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS NRN
MEXICO BY TUE NIGHT...HOWEVER THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOOT POINT FOR
OUR AREA AS THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME COMPLETE WITH DEEPENING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
MUCH LOWER PWATS. POPS WERE REFINED A BIT TO BETTER ILLUSTRATE A
CONCENTRATED PERIOD OF PRECIP LATE MON AND MON NIGHT AS THE CORE
OF HEIGHT FALLS REACHES THE AREA AND PROVIDES THE DEEPEST FORCING
FOR ASCENT. A STRONG UL JET STREAK OF 130 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME
APPEARS CLASSIC FOR MAINTAINING A ROUND OF TRAINING PRECIP
EMBEDDED IN DEEP SWLY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH THIS TROUGH IS STILL
LURKING OFF THE PACIFIC COASTLINE...OPER MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
CONSISTENCY DEPICTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WARRANT
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LIKELY POPS WERE
CONSIDERED...BUT SINCE THE BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 5-6 DAYS
OUT THERE IS A VALID CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL DPROG/DT CONCERNS
EMERGING. SO WE/LL LEAVE THE HIGHER POPS ON THE ROTISSERIE FOR NOW
UNTIL THEY SHOW BETTER CARAMELIZATION.

OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. FRIDAY NIGHT/S
COOL SURFACE RIDGE ACTUALLY LOOKS TO DEPART THE REGION A TOUCH
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODELS INDICATED WHICH COULD COMPLETELY
STAVE OFF A LIGHT FREEZE FOR OUR NERN ZONES...BUT WILL KEEP NEAR
FREEZING LOWS INTACT FOR THE CHILDRESS-SILVERTON AREA AS MOS IS
STILL COMING IN QUITE CHILLY THERE. ALSO...SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUN NIGHT SHOULD GARNER SOME LIGHT
PRECIP WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER FORCING
EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY/MON NIGHT. CHILLY COLD FROPA BY EARLY TUE
SHOULD STUNT MAX TEMPS WHICH MAY PLAY A HAND IN THE THREAT OF A
FREEZE BY TUE NIGHT UNDER LIGHT NORTH WINDS...HOWEVER SOIL
MOISTURE FROM ANTECEDENT RAINFALL MAY OFFSET STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING ALTOGETHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  61  39  63  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  60  36  62  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     39  60  36  62  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  62  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  63  37  64  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  63  38  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    41  62  38  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     42  63  34  62  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          43  63  36  63  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     45  65  36  64  51 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
460
FXUS64 KLUB 301757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1257 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BREEZY N-NE WINDS WILL DIE OFF THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG MENTION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIVER ACROSS SRN STONEWALL COUNTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.

HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  61  37  64  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         38  60  33  63  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     39  60  34  63  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     37  62  36  65  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       40  63  36  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  63  38  66  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    41  63  38  66  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  63  34  63  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          42  63  37  64  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     44  65  37  65  48 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
956
FXUS64 KLUB 301500 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG MENTION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIVER ACROSS SRN STONEWALL COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.

HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  34  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         72  38  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  39  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     73  37  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  40  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  40  63  38  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  41  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  43  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  42  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  44  65  37  65 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
303
FXUS64 KLUB 301136
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.

HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  34  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         72  38  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  39  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     73  37  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  40  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  40  63  38  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  41  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  43  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  42  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  44  65  37  65 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
912
FXUS64 KLUB 300935
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.

HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIRMASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARMUP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  34  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         72  38  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  39  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     73  37  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  40  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  40  63  38  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  41  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  43  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  42  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  44  65  37  65 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/16
883
FXUS64 KLUB 300437
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1137 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST MAY STILL
BRING THE RISK OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT KLBB THURSDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME IS LESS THAN DESIRED.
IF THE CIGS/BR CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO KLBB...FLIGHT CATEGORIES
COULD DROP AS LOW AS MVFR TO LIFR. DECIDED TO PLAY THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD...MAINTAINING A TEMPO GROUP WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
12-16Z TIME-FRAME...AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. IT STILL APPEARS THE
RICHEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KCDS SO VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
HERE. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY WITH FROPA EXPECTED
AROUND MIDDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
RISEN TO RIGHT ROUND SEASONAL NORMS...NAMELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
COMBINATION OF RADIATION AND ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
MOISTURE GOES AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HEADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED NUDGING
LOWS TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES SAT MORNING WHILE
EDGING POPS UPWARD TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING THURSDAY/S BACKDOOR FRONT...COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OVERWHELM THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING SLOWLY EAST BY FRI
NIGHT. THIS EARLY DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS EAST INTO OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEEING THEIR FIRST FREEZE /ALBEIT LIGHT/. GRADUAL INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ATOP A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW COULD
KEEP ANY FREEZE VERY SPOTTY...BUT WE THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD A
LIGHT FREEZE MENTION TO THE HWO.

RETURN FLOW ONLY AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SPUR LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMPLETE WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ALREADY BY SUN EVENING THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH COULD GARNER SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FOR LIGHT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. DETAILS
THEREAFTER ARE LESS CERTAIN AS THE CORE MODELS /ECMWF AND GFS/
MAINTAIN A WEALTH OF SPREAD WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER HAS ENJOYED BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE...BUT THIS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISMISS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE MODELS
IS BEST ADVISED BY THE WPC EXTENDED DESK WHICH TENDS TO FIT WELL
WITH THE GEFS MEAN FOR NOW. THIS FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS LATER IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH AND SETS UP A SW-NE
RIBBON LIFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO BOOT. FORCING MAY VERY WELL BE
AS GOOD AS THE ECM SUGGESTS WITH THE GFS EVEN PROGGING A 110 KNOT
JET MAX ALOFT. PROVIDED THE APPROACHING TROUGH LAGS ENOUGH ENERGY
IN ITS BASE OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY...THIS ANAFRONTAL FLOW
REGIME LOOKS GOOD FOR A SOAKING RAIN EVENT MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK
AS PWATS SHOULD CURTAIL MARKEDLY FARTHER WEST. DID BOOST POPS TO
50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY IN OUR SERN ZONES AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE DEPTH OF SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING...THEY ALL AGREE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 500MB
MEAN TROUGH BY TUE/WED THAN BEFORE. THIS ARGUES IN FAVOR OF STEADY
DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND A RETURN TO COOL SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  69  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  71  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  74  42  65  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  74  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  75  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  75  43  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  76  44  67  36 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
147
FXUS64 KLUB 292340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT
BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ENOUGH SHALLOW
MOISTURE MAY ADVECT INTO KLBB TO BRING THE RISK OF LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG BY AROUND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IN FOG/CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AT
KLBB IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...BUT IF IT OCCURS MVFR TO IFR /PERHAPS
EVEN LIFR/ CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
OCCURRENCE...WE HAVE HEDGED WITH A MVFR TEMPO GROUND FROM 12Z TO
16Z. THE BETTER MOISTURE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KCDS...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DOMINATING THERE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ON
THURSDAY WITH FROPA AROUND MIDDAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. MODESTLY
BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE
FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
RISEN TO RIGHT ROUND SEASONAL NORMS...NAMELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
COMBINATION OF RADIATION AND ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
MOISTURE GOES AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HEADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED NUDGING
LOWS TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES SAT MORNING WHILE
EDGING POPS UPWARD TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING THURSDAY/S BACKDOOR FRONT...COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OVERWHELM THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING SLOWLY EAST BY FRI
NIGHT. THIS EARLY DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS EAST INTO OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEEING THEIR FIRST FREEZE /ALBEIT LIGHT/. GRADUAL INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ATOP A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW COULD
KEEP ANY FREEZE VERY SPOTTY...BUT WE THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD A
LIGHT FREEZE MENTION TO THE HWO.

RETURN FLOW ONLY AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SPUR LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMPLETE WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ALREADY BY SUN EVENING THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH COULD GARNER SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FOR LIGHT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. DETAILS
THEREAFTER ARE LESS CERTAIN AS THE CORE MODELS /ECMWF AND GFS/
MAINTAIN A WEALTH OF SPREAD WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER HAS ENJOYED BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE...BUT THIS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISMISS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE MODELS
IS BEST ADVISED BY THE WPC EXTENDED DESK WHICH TENDS TO FIT WELL
WITH THE GEFS MEAN FOR NOW. THIS FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS LATER IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH AND SETS UP A SW-NE
RIBBON LIFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO BOOT. FORCING MAY VERY WELL BE
AS GOOD AS THE ECM SUGGESTS WITH THE GFS EVEN PROGGING A 110 KNOT
JET MAX ALOFT. PROVIDED THE APPROACHING TROUGH LAGS ENOUGH ENERGY
IN ITS BASE OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY...THIS ANAFRONTAL FLOW
REGIME LOOKS GOOD FOR A SOAKING RAIN EVENT MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK
AS PWATS SHOULD CURTAIL MARKEDLY FARTHER WEST. DID BOOST POPS TO
50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY IN OUR SERN ZONES AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE DEPTH OF SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING...THEY ALL AGREE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 500MB
MEAN TROUGH BY TUE/WED THAN BEFORE. THIS ARGUES IN FAVOR OF STEADY
DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND A RETURN TO COOL SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  69  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  71  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  74  42  65  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  74  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  75  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  75  43  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  76  44  67  36 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
472
FXUS64 KLUB 292040
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SRLY WINDS...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
RISEN TO RIGHT ROUND SEASONAL NORMS...NAMELY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN IN THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL WASH OUT
TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL BRING MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY MORNING. SOME
COMBINATION OF RADIATION AND ADVECTION FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS...AND POSSIBLY FARTHER NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE
MOISTURE GOES AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HEADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION...SOME LOW STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE
AROUND DAYBREAK AND MOVE THROUGH THE WHOLE CWA BY MIDDAY. THE WINDS
WILL BECOME A BIT BREEZY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH PRETTY
QUICKLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD NOT
CHANGE MUCH FROM TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ONLY CHANGES OF SIGNIFICANCE IN THIS PACKAGE INVOLVED NUDGING
LOWS TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS OUR NERN ZONES SAT MORNING WHILE
EDGING POPS UPWARD TO HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING THURSDAY/S BACKDOOR FRONT...COOL SURFACE RIDGING WILL
OVERWHELM THE REGION ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING SLOWLY EAST BY FRI
NIGHT. THIS EARLY DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPS EAST INTO OKLAHOMA...HOWEVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE TO
SEEING THEIR FIRST FREEZE /ALBEIT LIGHT/. GRADUAL INFLUX OF HIGH
CLOUDS ATOP A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW COULD
KEEP ANY FREEZE VERY SPOTTY...BUT WE THOUGHT IT PRUDENT TO ADD A
LIGHT FREEZE MENTION TO THE HWO.

RETURN FLOW ONLY AMPLIFIES THEREAFTER AS HEIGHT FALLS SPUR LEE
TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHWEST COMPLETE WITH BREEZY SLY WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND. ALREADY BY SUN EVENING THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS
WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH COULD GARNER SUFFICIENT TOP-DOWN
MOISTENING FOR LIGHT PRECIP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. DETAILS
THEREAFTER ARE LESS CERTAIN AS THE CORE MODELS /ECMWF AND GFS/
MAINTAIN A WEALTH OF SPREAD WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF. THE LATTER HAS ENJOYED BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AS OF LATE...BUT THIS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DISMISS
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CMC. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE MODELS
IS BEST ADVISED BY THE WPC EXTENDED DESK WHICH TENDS TO FIT WELL
WITH THE GEFS MEAN FOR NOW. THIS FAVORS THE HIGHEST POPS LATER IN
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH AND SETS UP A SW-NE
RIBBON LIFT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO BOOT. FORCING MAY VERY WELL BE
AS GOOD AS THE ECM SUGGESTS WITH THE GFS EVEN PROGGING A 110 KNOT
JET MAX ALOFT. PROVIDED THE APPROACHING TROUGH LAGS ENOUGH ENERGY
IN ITS BASE OVER THE DESERT SW BY MONDAY...THIS ANAFRONTAL FLOW
REGIME LOOKS GOOD FOR A SOAKING RAIN EVENT MAINLY OFF THE CAPROCK
AS PWATS SHOULD CURTAIL MARKEDLY FARTHER WEST. DID BOOST POPS TO
50 PERCENT FOR LATE MONDAY IN OUR SERN ZONES AS THIS AREA LOOKS TO
STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP. DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE DEPTH OF SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING...THEY ALL AGREE IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE 500MB
MEAN TROUGH BY TUE/WED THAN BEFORE. THIS ARGUES IN FAVOR OF STEADY
DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY MIDWEEK FOLLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS AND A RETURN TO COOL SURFACE RIDGING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  69  35  61  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  38  61  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     43  71  39  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  37  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  40  64  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  74  42  65  39 /   0   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  74  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     46  75  42  63  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  75  43  65  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     51  76  44  67  36 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
129
FXUS64 KLUB 291735
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1235 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS THAT COULD IMPACT KLBB. WE HAVE HINTED AT
POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS...CEILING REDUCTIONS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN.
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH WILL
PRODUCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NW...BUT WIND GUSTS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 12 TO 18 KT RANGE WITH THE FROPA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE...REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY AND MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL NORTHWEST FLOW ON TAP TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT. A MOISTURE-STARVED WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WILL SAG SOUTHEAST MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST ALTHOUGH WE WILL REMAIN
IN SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC CURVED ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN AS WELL ALONG WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE
WARMING COULD LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS AS WELL ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE WEAK PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE A WARMER DAY CLOSE TO
NORMAL IS ON THE WAY. SHOULD ELEVATE TO VERY NICE BY MOST STANDARDS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT WITH UPPER FLOW TRENDING
MORE ANTICYCLONIC AS UPPER RIDGE BULGES JUST TO OUR WEST. MINIMAL
SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRATUS LAYER MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A SEASONAL COOL NIGHT. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE THE APPROACH AND EVOLUTION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF TEXAS
BEGINNING POTENTIALLY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PLACEMENT AND
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS
TO ADDRESS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.
FIRST...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND WILL INTERACT WITH SOME MODEST
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT DOES. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WOULDNT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOL BEHIND THIS FRONT AS WELL...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO FREEZING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY IN THE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING ON THE HIGH PLAINS...AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED APPROACHING TROUGH.

MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS NEXT EVENT IS MAINLY DUE TO
THE TENUOUS HANDLE THAT MODELS HAVE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS APPEAR TO BE LATCHING ONTO THE IDEA
THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SPLIT AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT DIVIDE
LATE THIS WEEKEND...SENDING A PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND DIGGING A CLOSED LOW SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTH WEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY EJECTING THIS LOW
EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE ALL
SEEMS TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM OF SOME
VARIETY WILL BECOME DRAWN INTO THE WIND FIELD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...BRINGING VERY UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE INTO TEXAS BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND.  TO TOP IT ALL OFF...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PLUNGE SOUTHWARD SOMETIME LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHERE IT
INTERACTS WITH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
QPF TOTALS.  AT THIS POINT...WHILE MODELS HAVE VERY MUCH STRUGGLED
TO COME TO A CONSENSUS...RAIN ACROSS AT LEAST EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...AND THUS HAVE INCREASED
POPS SOLIDLY INTO CHC PROBABILITIES FOR THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  FARTHER WEST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
LESS CERTAIN AT THIS POINT...BUT OPTED TO BRING SCHC POPS WESTWARD
DURING THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE WESTERLY TRACK OF
THE UPPER LOW IN LATEST GUIDANCE.  BY LATE TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FORCED SOUTHWARDS BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT...BUT AT 7 DAYS OUT WITH POOR MODEL AGREEMENT LITTLE CAN BE
SAID OTHER THAN THE LIKELIHOOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  69  38  61  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         42  70  41  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  70  43  62  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  71  44  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       47  72  45  64  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   47  77  49  65  42 /   0   0  10  10   0
BROWNFIELD    47  76  48  64  42 /   0   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     47  76  46  64  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  75  47  65  41 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  81  48  67  41 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
180
FXUS64 KLUB 282046
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE BRIEFLY SETTLES IN
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF YSTDY/S COLD FRONT. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS NOT EXCEEDINGLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY RUNNING
NEAR 30F IN THE NORTH TO NEAR 40F IN THE SOUTH...SO THE THREAT OF A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS LOOKS PRETTY
LOW. STILL...IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME OF
THE LOCAL DRAINAGES ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CURRENT CIRRUS
FIELD SHOULD SHOULD PASS EAST THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGER FROM THE UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW COMPELTE WITH ONE MORE DRY COLD FRONT BY
LATE THURSDAY WILL BUCKLE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID-WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS FORESEEN DURING THIS TIME...MANY LOCALES
ACROSS THE CWA SHOULD EASILY SURPASS THEIR AVERAGE FIRST FREEZE
DATES BY A WEEK IF NOT EVEN LONGER.

THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED REALM CONCERNS PRECIP
CHANCES...THE FIRST ON FRIDAY WITH A SECOND AND MORE PRONOUNCED
OPPORTUNITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY BACKDOOR COLD
FROPA LATE THURSDAY...A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS SHOULD ADVECT NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE STALLING FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS. DRY SURFACE
RIDGING HOWEVER LOOKS QUITE STOUT ACROSS THE CWA ALL DRY FRI WITH
ONLY SOME THICKER CLOUDS ADVANCING ACROSS THE TX-NM STATE LINE...
SO PRECIP CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO BELOW MENTION AREA WIDE.
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING OVERHEAD DURING THIS
TIME FURTHER LIMITING BACKGROUND ASCENT.

BREEZY RETURN FLOW ENSUES THIS WEEKEND AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD
THE WESTERN CONUS AND SPUR LEE TROUGHING ACROSS NERN NM AND ERN
CO. MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RAMP UP BY SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME
LOW CLOUDS FOR SUN MORNING...BUT THIS MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE
SHALLOW UNTIL PEAKING BY MONDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT.
DEEP SWLY FLOW COULD SHUNT MUCH OF THIS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
REMAINING ELSEWHERE. LOW RESOLUTION RUNS OF THE ECMWF SINCE LAST
EVENING HAVE ABANDONED THE ANOMALOUS CLOSED LOW IN THE DESERT SW
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN FAVOR OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH VERY MUCH AKIN
TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS TRENDED
DRIER EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WITH DECENT RAIN
CHANCES /FOR DAY 7 STANDARDS/ REMAINING OFF THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  70  43  70  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         37  69  44  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     38  70  45  72  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  70  48  74  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       40  70  48  75  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  71  50  75  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    40  71  50  74  51 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     41  74  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          40  72  49  77  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     43  74  50  81  52 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/93
048
FXUS64 KLUB 281712
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1212 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE
VFR THROUGHT THE PERIOD WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AT
KLBB. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT...DECREASING TO
BELOW 10 KT LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ENTIRE CWFA WITH LITTLE EFFORT.  WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ON THE ANEMIC SIDE AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED /BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO/ BUT IMPORTANT THING IS THAT IT WILL
FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE AUTUMN TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE THINGS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION /ALOFT FROM THE NW AND FROM THE NE AT THE
SFC./  GIVEN THE FAST INITIATION OF RETURN FLOW OUT WEST...THIS
SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE
TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE UP TOWARD CHILDRESS WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY.

LONG TERM...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALSO SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH READINGS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MODEST
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND
IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A RESULT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION FOR NOW...AS THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS SOMEWHAT REMOTE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND...WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS.  AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALITIES CAN
BE DRAWN.  FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE ENTITIES...SENDING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND LEAVING BEHIND A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH THAT MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH...AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  STILL...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIGGING TROUGH TO
OUR WEST SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION MENTION IS WARRANTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  36  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  41  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  40  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  42  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  43  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  41  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  44  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          69  43  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  47  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
296
FXUS64 KLUB 281117
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
617 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ENTIRE CWFA WITH LITTLE EFFORT.  WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ON THE ANEMIC SIDE AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED /BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO/ BUT IMPORTANT THING IS THAT IT WILL
FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE AUTUMN TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE THINGS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION /ALOFT FROM THE NW AND FROM THE NE AT THE
SFC./  GIVEN THE FAST INITIATION OF RETURN FLOW OUT WEST...THIS
SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE
TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE UP TOWARD CHILDRESS WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY.

LONG TERM...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALSO SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH READINGS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MODEST
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND
IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A RESULT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION FOR NOW...AS THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS SOMEWHAT REMOTE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND...WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS.  AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALITIES CAN
BE DRAWN.  FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE ENTITIES...SENDING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND LEAVING BEHIND A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH THAT MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH...AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  STILL...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIGGING TROUGH TO
OUR WEST SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION MENTION IS WARRANTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  36  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  41  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  40  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  42  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  43  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  41  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  44  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          69  43  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  47  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
023
FXUS64 KLUB 280933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
433 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED ENTIRE CWFA WITH LITTLE EFFORT.  WIND SPEEDS
CONTINUE TO BE A BIT ON THE ANEMIC SIDE AS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS
EXPECTED /BY ABOUT 5 KTS OR SO/ BUT IMPORTANT THING IS THAT IT WILL
FEEL JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE LIKE AUTUMN TODAY THAN THE PAST
SEVERAL.  NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE THINGS COMPLETELY CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION /ALOFT FROM THE NW AND FROM THE NE AT THE
SFC./  GIVEN THE FAST INITIATION OF RETURN FLOW OUT WEST...THIS
SHOULD HELP TEMPS FROM FREEZING IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS
DEWPOINTS CREEP UPWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THAT SAID...WE COULD SEE
TEMPS FALL A BIT MORE THAN GUIDANCE UP TOWARD CHILDRESS WHERE SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND
SHORTWAVES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND ALSO SEND YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH WEST TEXAS SOMETIME THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH READINGS
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND A BIT COOLER THAN
NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. WHILE THIS
FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE DRY...IT WILL ENCOUNTER SOME MODEST
RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...AND
IT WOULDNT BE TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS A RESULT. WILL
LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES BELOW MENTION FOR NOW...AS THIS POSSIBILITY
SEEMS SOMEWHAT REMOTE AT THIS POINT GIVEN A LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT
UNDERNEATH A BUILDING RIDGE.

BY THE WEEKEND...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND...WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS.  AT THIS POINT...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH SOME GENERALITIES CAN
BE DRAWN.  FIRST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SPLIT INTO TWO
SEPARATE ENTITIES...SENDING A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS AND LEAVING BEHIND A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERLY TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS SECOND TROUGH THAT MODELS
SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING THE MOST WITH...AND AS A RESULT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
REMAIN SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  STILL...DESPITE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND DIGGING TROUGH TO
OUR WEST SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION MENTION IS WARRANTED BEGINNING
SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  36  70  43  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         65  39  71  44  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     65  41  71  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  40  71  48  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       66  42  71  48  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   67  43  71  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    67  41  71  50  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     70  44  75  46  80 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          69  43  73  49  77 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  47  75  50  81 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/16
482
FXUS64 KLUB 280508 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT RAMPED UP AS MUCH
AND HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCDS AND WILL ARRIVE AT KLBB
SHORTLY. THIS WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH AND COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WAS POISED JUST
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PICKING UP STEAM AFTER SUNSET. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE VEERED NICELY AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD BE A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE RISES
INCREASE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD
SUNRISE...WILL RUN ON COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
COOL AND QUIET DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
AND VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST LOOK FINE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT. LOWS WED MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...UPPER
30S/LOW 40S...BUT WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND. HIGHS WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT...THIS ONE WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR...WILL COOL
TEMPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
NOTICEABLE. A RIDGE WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP AID IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS WELL
TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CA/US BOUNDARY WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF
POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR WEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROF ON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN ITS FULL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AND HAVE ALSO TURNED THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE A FRONT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
THE ECMWF...AS IT USUALLY IS...IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUES. PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
WEST TX. FOR NOW I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THE END OF NEXT MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
AS WELL AS THE PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WHAT WOULD HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ATM IS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MONDAY RUSHES ACROSS KS PUSHING THE FRONT IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  63  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  65  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  65  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  66  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  66  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  66  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  71  44  73  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          44  69  42  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  72  45  73  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
044
FXUS64 KLUB 272336 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS FORECAST.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KCDS AND WILL ARRIVE AT KLBB
SHORTLY. THIS WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH AND COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WIND SPEEDS
WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY
SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WAS POISED JUST
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PICKING UP STEAM AFTER SUNSET. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE VEERED NICELY AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD BE A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE RISES
INCREASE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD
SUNRISE...WILL RUN ON COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
COOL AND QUIET DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
AND VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST LOOK FINE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT. LOWS WED MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...UPPER
30S/LOW 40S...BUT WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND. HIGHS WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT...THIS ONE WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR...WILL COOL
TEMPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
NOTICEABLE. A RIDGE WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP AID IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS WELL
TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CA/US BOUNDARY WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF
POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR WEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROF ON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN ITS FULL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AND HAVE ALSO TURNED THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE A FRONT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
THE ECMWF...AS IT USUALLY IS...IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUES. PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
WEST TX. FOR NOW I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THE END OF NEXT MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
AS WELL AS THE PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WHAT WOULD HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ATM IS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MONDAY RUSHES ACROSS KS PUSHING THE FRONT IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  63  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  65  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  65  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  66  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  66  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  66  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  71  44  73  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          44  69  42  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  72  45  73  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
981
FXUS64 KLUB 271953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WAS POISED JUST
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PICKING UP STEAM AFTER SUNSET. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE VEERED NICELY AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD BE A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE RISES
INCREASE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD
SUNRISE...WILL RUN ON COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
COOL AND QUIET DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
AND VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST LOOK FINE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT. LOWS WED MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...UPPER
30S/LOW 40S...BUT WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND. HIGHS WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT...THIS ONE WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR...WILL COOL
TEMPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
NOTICEABLE. A RIDGE WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP AID IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS WELL
TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CA/US BOUNDARY WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF
POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR WEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROF ON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN ITS FULL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AND HAVE ALSO TURNED THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE A FRONT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
THE ECMWF...AS IT USUALLY IS...IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUES. PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
WEST TX. FOR NOW I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THE END OF NEXT MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
AS WELL AS THE PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WHAT WOULD HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ATM IS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MONDAY RUSHES ACROSS KS PUSHING THE FRONT IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  63  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  65  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  65  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  66  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  66  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  66  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  71  44  73  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          44  69  42  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  72  45  73  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
544
FXUS64 KLUB 271953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AT 2 PM THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WAS POISED JUST
NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING...PICKING UP STEAM AFTER SUNSET. ANY PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
HAVE VEERED NICELY AND DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DROP. SHOULD BE A BIT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE RISES
INCREASE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF WIND SPEEDS DROPPING OFF TOWARD
SUNRISE...WILL RUN ON COOLER END OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
COOL AND QUIET DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COOL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH
INTO THE AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST BELOW MOS
AND VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST LOOK FINE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN EARLY WEEK COLD
FRONT. LOWS WED MORNING WILL STILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE...UPPER
30S/LOW 40S...BUT WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND. HIGHS WILL
FLUCTUATE SLIGHTLY BUT WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER FRONT...THIS ONE WEAKER THEN ITS PREDECESSOR...WILL COOL
TEMPS SLIGHTLY GOING INTO FRI BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE EXTREMELY
NOTICEABLE. A RIDGE WILL SET IN BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
WARM IN THE MID 70S AREA WIDE. RETURN FLOW WILL HELP AID IN SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS WHILE ALSO HELPING TO FUNNEL IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THE PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...HOWEVER SOME DISCREPANCIES REMAIN. THE MAIN LOW WILL PASS WELL
TO OUR NORTH ALONG THE CA/US BOUNDARY WHILE A LONG WAVE TROF
POSITIONS ITSELF TO OUR WEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TIMING OF THIS TROF ON WHEN IT WILL BEGIN ITS FULL EASTWARD MOVEMENT
AND HAVE ALSO TURNED THE TROF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY TUESDAY. DURING
THIS TIME THE LOW WILL BE NEAR SOUTHWESTERN NM. WHILE A FRONT IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE LOW...PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL IN QUESTION.
THE ECMWF...AS IT USUALLY IS...IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LATE MON INTO TUES. PWAT VALUES ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1.2 INCHES ON AVERAGE WHICH IS ADEQUATE FOR
WEST TX. FOR NOW I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT
THE END OF NEXT MONDAY AS THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT
AS WELL AS THE PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER. WHAT WOULD HINDER PRECIP CHANCES ATM IS IF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF LATE MONDAY RUSHES ACROSS KS PUSHING THE FRONT IN
FAIRLY QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  63  37  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         39  64  39  69  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     41  65  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     39  65  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       43  66  42  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   41  66  41  70  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    42  66  41  69  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  71  44  73  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          44  69  42  70  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  72  45  73  50 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
383
FXUS64 KLUB 271109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 KTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT CDS FIRST AT ROUGHLY
23Z...AND LATER AT LBB. EXPECT SUSTAINED NNE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS AT
LBB LIKELY TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN BETWEEN SUNSET AND THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TO WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A REASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE REGION
AND PUTS AN END TO THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH THAT HAS PERSISTED
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THIS FRONT WILL COME COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS BOUNDARY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 22-00Z. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SOME CONFLICTING FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...SUBSTANTIAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SHOULD OUTWEIGH BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS TO RESULT IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAYS READINGS...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3-8 DEGREES OR SO.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH...AS
CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS THICK AND THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL
BE AT ITS PEAK. NOT ONLY THIS...BUT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ACT TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS. GIVEN ALL OF THE FACTORS DISCUSSED...OPTED TO
SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH RESULTS
IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR A REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
CURRENTLY STAND AT 87 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 90 DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS.

BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  OPTED TO BUMP WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MODELS TO
UNDER FORECAST POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATIONS.  AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH OKLAHOMA TEXAS...BUT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.  THUS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES /I.E.
CHILDRESS...COTTLE...KING...STONEWALL/.

LONG TERM...
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE INDICATED FOR THE EXTENDED.  BY SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWFA. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AFTER A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD
SIMPLY SEE TEMPS ONLY LOWER TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER 3 COMES
IN ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MEAGER IN OUR FA. AREAS TO
OUR EAST MAY BE A BIT MORE FORTUNATE IN THAT REGARD. THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME LATE NEXT MONDAY. NWP HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM SO THAT IS A POSITIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  36  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  41  64  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  43  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  40  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  45  67  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  43  66  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  45  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  49  71  46  73 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          90  47  69  45  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  52  72  47  72 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16
033
FXUS64 KLUB 270826
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TO WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A REASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE REGION
AND PUTS AN END TO THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH THAT HAS PERSISTED
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THIS FRONT WILL COME COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS BOUNDARY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 22-00Z. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SOME CONFLICTING FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...SUBSTANTIAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SHOULD OUTWEIGH BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS TO RESULT IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAYS READINGS...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3-8 DEGREES OR SO.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH...AS
CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS THICK AND THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL
BE AT ITS PEAK. NOT ONLY THIS...BUT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ACT TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS. GIVEN ALL OF THE FACTORS DISCUSSED...OPTED TO
SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH RESULTS
IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR A REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
CURRENTLY STAND AT 87 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 90 DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS.

BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  OPTED TO BUMP WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MODELS TO
UNDER FORECAST POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATIONS.  AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH OKLAHOMA TEXAS...BUT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.  THUS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES /I.E.
CHILDRESS...COTTLE...KING...STONEWALL/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE INDICATED FOR THE EXTENDED.  BY SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWFA. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AFTER A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD
SIMPLY SEE TEMPS ONLY LOWER TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER 3 COMES
IN ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MEAGER IN OUR FA. AREAS TO
OUR EAST MAY BE A BIT MORE FORTUNATE IN THAT REGARD. THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME LATE NEXT MONDAY. NWP HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM SO THAT IS A POSITIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  36  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  41  64  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  43  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  40  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  45  67  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  43  66  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  45  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  49  71  46  73 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          90  47  69  45  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  52  72  47  72 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26
033
FXUS64 KLUB 270826
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TO WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A REASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE REGION
AND PUTS AN END TO THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH THAT HAS PERSISTED
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THIS FRONT WILL COME COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS BOUNDARY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 22-00Z. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SOME CONFLICTING FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...SUBSTANTIAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SHOULD OUTWEIGH BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS TO RESULT IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAYS READINGS...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3-8 DEGREES OR SO.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH...AS
CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS THICK AND THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL
BE AT ITS PEAK. NOT ONLY THIS...BUT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ACT TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS. GIVEN ALL OF THE FACTORS DISCUSSED...OPTED TO
SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH RESULTS
IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR A REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
CURRENTLY STAND AT 87 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 90 DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS.

BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  OPTED TO BUMP WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MODELS TO
UNDER FORECAST POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATIONS.  AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH OKLAHOMA TEXAS...BUT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.  THUS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES /I.E.
CHILDRESS...COTTLE...KING...STONEWALL/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE INDICATED FOR THE EXTENDED.  BY SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWFA. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AFTER A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD
SIMPLY SEE TEMPS ONLY LOWER TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER 3 COMES
IN ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MEAGER IN OUR FA. AREAS TO
OUR EAST MAY BE A BIT MORE FORTUNATE IN THAT REGARD. THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME LATE NEXT MONDAY. NWP HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM SO THAT IS A POSITIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  36  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  41  64  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  43  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  40  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  45  67  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  43  66  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  45  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  49  71  46  73 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          90  47  69  45  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  52  72  47  72 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26
320
FXUS64 KLUB 270826
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY TO WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS A REASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT TAKES AIM ON THE REGION
AND PUTS AN END TO THE RECORD-SETTING WARMTH THAT HAS PERSISTED
THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THIS FRONT WILL COME COURTESY OF A PROGRESSIVE LONG-WAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES...AND
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THIS BOUNDARY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 22-00Z. GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THIS BOUNDARY...SOME CONFLICTING FACTORS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...SUBSTANTIAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
DECREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SHOULD OUTWEIGH BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS TO RESULT IN A DROP IN TEMPERATURES
FROM TODAYS READINGS...PERHAPS ON THE ORDER OF 3-8 DEGREES OR SO.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH...AS
CLOUDS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS THICK AND THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT WILL
BE AT ITS PEAK. NOT ONLY THIS...BUT COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY ALSO ACT TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS. GIVEN ALL OF THE FACTORS DISCUSSED...OPTED TO
SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES WHICH RESULTS
IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD-SETTING WARMTH ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR A REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
CURRENTLY STAND AT 87 DEGREES AT LUBBOCK AND 90 DEGREES AT
CHILDRESS.

BETWEEN 00 AND 12Z...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA...BRINGING WITH IT A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE BY EARLY IN THE MORNING.  OPTED TO BUMP WIND
SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS OR SO GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MODELS TO
UNDER FORECAST POST FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATIONS.  AS FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH OKLAHOMA TEXAS...BUT THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA.  THUS...OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
THE ROLLING PLAINS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BRIEFLY CLIP OUR EASTERN COUNTIES /I.E.
CHILDRESS...COTTLE...KING...STONEWALL/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE INDICATED FOR THE EXTENDED.  BY SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY...COLD FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE CWFA. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  AFTER A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WE SHOULD
SIMPLY SEE TEMPS ONLY LOWER TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE COLD FRONT NUMBER 3 COMES
IN ON MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK QUITE MEAGER IN OUR FA. AREAS TO
OUR EAST MAY BE A BIT MORE FORTUNATE IN THAT REGARD. THE NEXT
MEANINGFUL CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME LATE NEXT MONDAY. NWP HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM SO THAT IS A POSITIVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  36  62  40  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         83  41  64  41  68 /   0  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     82  43  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  40  65  42  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  45  67  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  43  66  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    85  45  66  45  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  49  71  46  73 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          90  47  69  45  71 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  52  72  47  72 /   0  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26
142
FXUS64 KLUB 270428
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES. MODEST SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WITH 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CENTERED PLAINVIEW TO 40
MILES NORTH OF KCDS...BUT SURFACE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH
TONIGHT TO AVOID A WIND SHEAR REMARK. GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH AND
THEN MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS KCDS AROUND 00Z AND APPROACH KLBB NEAR 06Z TUESDAY.
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF KCDS LATE MONDAY
BUT CHANCES TOO SMALL FOR TAF AT THIS TIME. TAF CHANGE GROUPS
MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTY WIND PERIODS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

AVIATION...
DOMINANT VFR WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALTHOUGH A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR BOTH TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WILL
REASSESS IF A WIND SHEAR REMARK WILL BE NEEDED AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KCDS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY
AND KLBB BY 06Z TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER WARM LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH 19Z
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...ASIDE FROM A FEW UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. WE STILL COULD SEE RECORD
HIGHS THREATENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT RECORDS FOR LUBBOCK
AND CHILDRESS ARE 88 DEGREES /1979/ AND 93 DEGREES
/1950/...RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE ADDITION TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE
BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS DEEPER THERMALLY-DRIVEN
MIXING ENDS...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KNOT LLJ AND THE
MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS ELEVATED
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT NIGHTS. THE MECHANICAL MIXING ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ARGUE FOR A MILDER OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 60S MIX IN ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST.

MONDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR
MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK. THE MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
UA TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TRANSLATES STEADILY EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY
WELL TO THE NORTH...LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND AN INCREASED TAP
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE /AND THUS CLOUD COVER/ WILL
PROVIDE THE COOLING. HOWEVER...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GREET THE
CWA TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT...AND THESE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THEY WILL THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ONE MORE DAY. IN FACT THE RECORD HIGH OF 90 DEGREES /1975/ AT
CHILDRESS COULD BE THREATENED. A COLD FRONT MAY EDGE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING AND THUS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A RATHER
DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP
THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY.

LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TODAY AS FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTAINED IN THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA...
FINALLY REPLACING THE VERY WARM AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SEEMINGLY
LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY WITH AN
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS. A MODEST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEFORE THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS LATTER
FEATURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH ATTM THE RIDGE IS
LOOKING WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION SO A
RETURN TO RECORD WARMTH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SMALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS EXPECTED MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ANY QPF WITH EITHER FRONTAL PASSAGE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  77  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  80  39  66  38 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  80  42  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  81  43  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  83  45  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  82  45  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  84  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  90  47  71  42 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          58  87  48  69  41 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  51  71  42 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
910
FXUS64 KLUB 262359
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
659 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
DOMINANT VFR WITH SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MODEST SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ALTHOUGH A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR BOTH TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. WILL
REASSESS IF A WIND SHEAR REMARK WILL BE NEEDED AND/OR ELEVATED
SURFACE WINDS. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KCDS AROUND 00Z TUESDAY
AND KLBB BY 06Z TUESDAY...JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER WARM LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH 19Z
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...ASIDE FROM A FEW UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. WE STILL COULD SEE RECORD
HIGHS THREATENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT RECORDS FOR LUBBOCK
AND CHILDRESS ARE 88 DEGREES /1979/ AND 93 DEGREES
/1950/...RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE ADDITION TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE
BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS DEEPER THERMALLY-DRIVEN
MIXING ENDS...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KNOT LLJ AND THE
MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS ELEVATED
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT NIGHTS. THE MECHANICAL MIXING ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ARGUE FOR A MILDER OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 60S MIX IN ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST.

MONDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR
MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK. THE MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
UA TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TRANSLATES STEADILY EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY
WELL TO THE NORTH...LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND AN INCREASED TAP
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE /AND THUS CLOUD COVER/ WILL
PROVIDE THE COOLING. HOWEVER...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GREET THE
CWA TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT...AND THESE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THEY WILL THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ONE MORE DAY. IN FACT THE RECORD HIGH OF 90 DEGREES /1975/ AT
CHILDRESS COULD BE THREATENED. A COLD FRONT MAY EDGE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING AND THUS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A RATHER
DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP
THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY.

LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TODAY AS FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTAINED IN THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA...
FINALLY REPLACING THE VERY WARM AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SEEMINGLY
LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY WITH AN
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS. A MODEST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEFORE THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS LATTER
FEATURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH ATTM THE RIDGE IS
LOOKING WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION SO A
RETURN TO RECORD WARMTH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SMALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS EXPECTED MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ANY QPF WITH EITHER FRONTAL PASSAGE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  77  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  80  39  66  38 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  80  42  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  81  43  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       57  83  45  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  82  45  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  84  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  90  47  71  42 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          58  87  48  69  41 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  51  71  42 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
308
FXUS64 KLUB 261940
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
240 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER WARM LATE OCTOBER DAY WITH 19Z
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S...ASIDE FROM A FEW UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. WE STILL COULD SEE RECORD
HIGHS THREATENED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CURRENT RECORDS FOR LUBBOCK
AND CHILDRESS ARE 88 DEGREES /1979/ AND 93 DEGREES
/1950/...RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE ADDITION TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IS AN INCREASE IN WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 15-25 MPH/ FOR THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE
BREEZY WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING AS DEEPER THERMALLY-DRIVEN
MIXING ENDS...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KNOT LLJ AND THE
MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS ELEVATED
IN COMPARISON TO RECENT NIGHTS. THE MECHANICAL MIXING ALONG WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS ARGUE FOR A MILDER OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 60S MIX IN ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST.

MONDAY WILL BRING ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...THOUGH LIKELY SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY FOR
MANY SPOTS ON THE CAPROCK. THE MINOR COOLING WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD
UA TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TRANSLATES STEADILY EASTWARD.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE BY
WELL TO THE NORTH...LOWER HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES AND AN INCREASED TAP
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE /AND THUS CLOUD COVER/ WILL
PROVIDE THE COOLING. HOWEVER...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GREET THE
CWA TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF A LATE DAY COLD FRONT...AND THESE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LARGELY OFFSET THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THEY WILL THREATEN THE 90 DEGREE
MARK ONE MORE DAY. IN FACT THE RECORD HIGH OF 90 DEGREES /1975/ AT
CHILDRESS COULD BE THREATENED. A COLD FRONT MAY EDGE INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST ZONES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING AND THUS SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY AFFECT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS...A RATHER
DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER ALONG WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP
THE SOUTH PLAINS DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS GOOD WITH LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED TODAY AS FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE
UPPER PATTERN WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
CONTAINED IN THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA...
FINALLY REPLACING THE VERY WARM AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN SEEMINGLY
LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY WITH AN
AMPLIFICATION IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS. A MODEST SHORT
WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR BEFORE THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS LATTER
FEATURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH ATTM THE RIDGE IS
LOOKING WEAKER THAN THE ONE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION SO A
RETURN TO RECORD WARMTH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. PRECIP CHANCES
LOOK SMALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS EXPECTED MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH
ANY QPF WITH EITHER FRONTAL PASSAGE FURTHER TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  77  35  64  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         56  80  39  66  38 /   0  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  80  42  66  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  81  43  66  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  83  45  67  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  82  45  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    55  84  46  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  90  47  71  42 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          58  87  48  69  41 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  51  71  42 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07
144
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MODESTLY BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND
BACK AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH A BRIEF PEAK IN WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS A 35 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS OVERHEAD. BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF A FROPA MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS TIME AROUND...ALTHOUGH
HINTS OF CHANGES TO COME WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.  IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
APPEAR TO BE KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  OPTED TO TWEAK THE MORNING LOWS
UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  LIKEWISE...THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF SHALLOW FOG
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE TEMP/DPT SPREADS
ARE SMALLEST.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NUDGED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WHILE THIS WILL ACT TO REDUCE 1000-500MB HEIGHTS...ANY MINUSCULE
COOLING EFFECT THIS MAY HAVE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN MITIGATED BY
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  THESE
WINDS...BROUGHT ON BY AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL LIKELY PICK
UP TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS WILL YET AGAIN PUT THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 88 AND 93 DEGREES AT
LBB AND CDS...RESPECTIVELY. HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT ON BY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER IN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING
BREEZY SW WINDS HELP KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
OVERNIGHT. OPTED TO SIDE WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO REFLECT
THIS POSSIBILITY.

LONG TERM...
FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM
LAST NIGHT/S WRAP-UP.  A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THUS WILL GIVE US A COUPLE OF FRONTS BETWEEN NOW AND
NEXT WEEKEND.  OUR FIRST FRONT MONDAY NIGHT IS NOW DRY...AS
EXPECTED...ON ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR EAST.  WILL CONTINUE NON-ZERO
POPS...BUT PROBABILITIES CERTAINLY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FCST
ATTM.  TIMING ON THE NEXT FRONT CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME TIME
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE OF A
BACK-DOOR TRAJECTORY FOR US ON THE SECONDARY SURGE WHICH COMES IN
FRIDAY MORNING.  SATURDAY THEN SEES AN ONSET OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS
RETURN FLOW AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.  SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY WILL YIELD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEK IN
WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  77  37  63  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         58  80  41  65  41 /   0   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     57  79  44  65  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  80  42  65  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       59  82  46  66  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   57  83  46  66  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    57  85  46  66  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     62  87  49  70  47 /   0  10  10   0   0
SPUR          58  86  48  68  45 /   0   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     60  88  52  70  47 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
932
FXUS64 KLUB 261059
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
559 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH CDS AND LBB. SSW WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY AT CDS WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM
15-20 KTS...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. EXPECT LIGHTER SPEEDS OF 10-15
KTS AT LBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS TIME AROUND...ALTHOUGH
HINTS OF CHANGES TO COME WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.  IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
APPEAR TO BE KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  OPTED TO TWEAK THE MORNING LOWS
UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  LIKEWISE...THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF SHALLOW FOG
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE TEMP/DPT SPREADS
ARE SMALLEST.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NUDGED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WHILE THIS WILL ACT TO REDUCE 1000-500MB HEIGHTS...ANY MINUSCULE
COOLING EFFECT THIS MAY HAVE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN MITIGATED BY
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  THESE
WINDS...BROUGHT ON BY AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL LIKELY PICK
UP TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS WILL YET AGAIN PUT THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY... WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 88 AND 93 DEGREES AT LBB
AND CDS...RESPECTIVELY.  HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT ON BY THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING BREEZY SW WINDS HELP
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT.  OPTED TO SIDE
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

LONG TERM...
FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM
LAST NIGHT/S WRAP-UP.  A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THUS WILL GIVE US A COUPLE OF FRONTS BETWEEN NOW AND
NEXT WEEKEND.  OUR FIRST FRONT MONDAY NIGHT IS NOW DRY...AS
EXPECTED...ON ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR EAST.  WILL CONTINUE NON-ZERO
POPS...BUT PROBABILITIES CERTAINLY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FCST
ATTM.  TIMING ON THE NEXT FRONT CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME TIME
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE OF A
BACK-DOOR TRAJECTORY FOR US ON THE SECONDARY SURGE WHICH COMES IN
FRIDAY MORNING.  SATURDAY THEN SEES AN ONSET OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS
RETURN FLOW AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.  SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY WILL YIELD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEK IN
WEST TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  77  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         87  58  80  41  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     87  57  79  44  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     87  57  80  42  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  59  82  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  57  83  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    86  57  85  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  62  87  49  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  58  86  48  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     89  60  88  52  70 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16
881
FXUS64 KLUB 260800
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
YET ANOTHER QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS TIME AROUND...ALTHOUGH
HINTS OF CHANGES TO COME WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW.  IN THE MORE IMMEDIATE TIME FRAME...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
APPEAR TO BE KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN OUR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  OPTED TO TWEAK THE MORNING LOWS
UPWARDS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.  LIKEWISE...THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WELL ABOVE THE THRESHOLD
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF SHALLOW FOG
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE TEMP/DPT SPREADS
ARE SMALLEST.

FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE NUDGED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AN APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH.
WHILE THIS WILL ACT TO REDUCE 1000-500MB HEIGHTS...ANY MINUSCULE
COOLING EFFECT THIS MAY HAVE WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN MITIGATED BY
THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  THESE
WINDS...BROUGHT ON BY AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WILL LIKELY PICK
UP TO BETWEEN 15-20 MPH BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  EXPECT HIGHS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND PERHAPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ON THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS WILL YET AGAIN PUT THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY... WHICH ARE CURRENTLY 88 AND 93 DEGREES AT LBB
AND CDS...RESPECTIVELY.  HIGH CLOUDS BROUGHT ON BY THE APPROACHING
TROUGH AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN BY
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MAY COMBINE WITH LINGERING BREEZY SW WINDS HELP
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVERNIGHT.  OPTED TO SIDE
WITH WARMER GUIDANCE NUMBERS TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FROM A SYNOPTIC PERSPECTIVE...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM
LAST NIGHT/S WRAP-UP.  A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THUS WILL GIVE US A COUPLE OF FRONTS BETWEEN NOW AND
NEXT WEEKEND.  OUR FIRST FRONT MONDAY NIGHT IS NOW DRY...AS
EXPECTED...ON ALL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR EAST.  WILL CONTINUE NON-ZERO
POPS...BUT PROBABILITIES CERTAINLY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN FCST
ATTM.  TIMING ON THE NEXT FRONT CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME TIME
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE OF A
BACK-DOOR TRAJECTORY FOR US ON THE SECONDARY SURGE WHICH COMES IN
FRIDAY MORNING.  SATURDAY THEN SEES AN ONSET OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS
RETURN FLOW AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST.  SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH MONDAY WILL YIELD TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.  LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEK IN
WEST TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  54  77  37  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         87  58  80  41  65 /   0   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     87  57  79  44  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     87  57  80  42  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  59  82  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  57  83  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    86  57  85  46  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     93  62  87  49  70 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  58  86  48  68 /   0   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     89  60  88  52  70 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26
737
FXUS64 KLUB 260438
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR REMAINING DOMINANT. ONLY CHANGE OF NOTE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS TO ADD A CHANGE GROUP SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR KCDS AS WINDS APPEAR
WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THAT
AREA. HIGH CLOUD INCREASE LATE IN FORECAST NOT WORTH SIGNIFICANT
MENTION AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EDGING
A BIT EAST AS WELL WITH VERY WARM DOWN-SLOPE FLOW FAVORED. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS LATE NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER
WEATHER. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS
WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE:

              TODAY /OCT 25/       TOMORROW /OCT 26/
LUBBOCK:    91 DEGREES /1959/      88 DEGREES /1979/
CHILDRESS:  94 DEGREES /2011/      93 DEGREES /1950/

AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WERE COMMONPLACE...WITH
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...AT OR AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THIS FALL WARMTH WAS BEING PROVIDED BY A STOUT LATE SEASON UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEST TEXAS...THOUGH ONLY MINOR HEIGHT
FALLS SHOULD BE CANCELED OUT BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE
80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH A FEW LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW NORMAL TO THE
MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH IN TURN
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE GET CARRIED OVER
TOMORROW...WITH PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS BREAKING UP THE CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES OF LATE.

BEFORE THEN...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD
ANOTHER COOL /BUT ABOVE AVERAGE/ NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...A LITTLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON THE CAPROCK...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AT BEST AND WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.

LONG TERM...
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN-
TO-RUN RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG
IT...PRIMARILY EASTERN ZONES. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 50S...BUT TIME OF DAY MEANS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CAPE LESS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CONCURRENTLY WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GENERATE MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT EITHER. OBVIOUSLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO...BUT THERE
ARE STILL TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED TO INSERT MENTION
ATTM.

A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NO LIFT WITH
NO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN NWLY FLOW OVERHEAD.

WARM TEMPS MONDAY TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT COULD LEAD TO
COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  86  52  75  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         50  87  54  78  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  86  54  80  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     50  86  54  81  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       53  87  56  82  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  87  54  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    49  87  55  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  92  60  86  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  55  86  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  88  57  87  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
915
FXUS64 KLUB 252237
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EDGING
A BIT EAST AS WELL WITH VERY WARM DOWN-SLOPE FLOW FAVORED. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS LATE NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER
WEATHER. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS
WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE:

              TODAY /OCT 25/       TOMORROW /OCT 26/
LUBBOCK:    91 DEGREES /1959/      88 DEGREES /1979/
CHILDRESS:  94 DEGREES /2011/      93 DEGREES /1950/

AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WERE COMMONPLACE...WITH
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...AT OR AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THIS FALL WARMTH WAS BEING PROVIDED BY A STOUT LATE SEASON UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEST TEXAS...THOUGH ONLY MINOR HEIGHT
FALLS SHOULD BE CANCELED OUT BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE
80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH A FEW LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW NORMAL TO THE
MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH IN TURN
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE GET CARRIED OVER
TOMORROW...WITH PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS BREAKING UP THE CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES OF LATE.

BEFORE THEN...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD
ANOTHER COOL /BUT ABOVE AVERAGE/ NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...A LITTLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON THE CAPROCK...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AT BEST AND WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.

LONG TERM...
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN-
TO-RUN RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG
IT...PRIMARILY EASTERN ZONES. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 50S...BUT TIME OF DAY MEANS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CAPE LESS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CONCURRENTLY WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GENERATE MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT EITHER. OBVIOUSLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO...BUT THERE
ARE STILL TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED TO INSERT MENTION
ATTM.

A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NO LIFT WITH
NO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN NWLY FLOW OVERHEAD.

WARM TEMPS MONDAY TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT COULD LEAD TO
COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  86  52  75  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         50  87  54  78  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  86  54  80  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     50  86  54  81  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       53  87  56  82  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  87  54  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    49  87  55  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  92  60  86  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  55  86  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  88  57  87  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
455
FXUS64 KLUB 252011
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE WEEKEND WILL CLOSE OUT WITH MORE WARM AND DRY LATE OCTOBER
WEATHER. THE ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF ANY ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS
WILL FALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
POINT OF REFERENCE...THE CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE:

              TODAY /OCT 25/       TOMORROW /OCT 26/
LUBBOCK:    91 DEGREES /1959/      88 DEGREES /1979/
CHILDRESS:  94 DEGREES /2011/      93 DEGREES /1950/

AS OF 19Z...TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S WERE COMMONPLACE...WITH
EVEN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING CHILDRESS...AT OR AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THIS FALL WARMTH WAS BEING PROVIDED BY A STOUT LATE SEASON UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR WEST TEXAS...THOUGH ONLY MINOR HEIGHT
FALLS SHOULD BE CANCELED OUT BY A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES ON SUNDAY. THUS...EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY TO TOMORROW...WITH ANOTHER AFTERNOON IN THE
80S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH A FEW LOWER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK. THE
APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH AND INCREASING FLOW NORMAL TO THE
MOUNTAINS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SURFACE LEE TROUGH WHICH IN TURN
WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS ON SUNDAY...
PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES...WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST. IN ADDITION...WE COULD SEE A LITTLE
HIGH-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE GET CARRIED OVER
TOMORROW...WITH PATCHES OF THIN CIRRUS BREAKING UP THE CRYSTAL CLEAR
SKIES OF LATE.

BEFORE THEN...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL YIELD
ANOTHER COOL /BUT ABOVE AVERAGE/ NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON THE CAPROCK...WHILE 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL BE COMMON
FURTHER EAST. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...A LITTLE PATCHY GROUND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN ON THE CAPROCK...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LIMITED AT BEST AND WE HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS AGAIN SHOWING GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN THEMSELVES AND RUN-
TO-RUN RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE ON A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST
AREA MONDAY EVENING AND POSSIBILY OF THUNDER DEVELOPING ALONG
IT...PRIMARILY EASTERN ZONES. PROGGED SFC DEW POINTS AS HIGH AS
THE LOWER 50S...BUT TIME OF DAY MEANS ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
CAPE LESS LIKELY TO BE TAPPED. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO FAIRLY
MODEST...AND THE WEAK AND VERY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CONCURRENLY WILL PROBABLY BE UNABLE TO GENERATE MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT EITHER. OBVIOUSLY PRECIP CHANCES ARE NON-ZERO...BUT THERE
ARE STILL TOO MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED TO INSERT MENTION
ATTM.

A SECOND COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA
THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE EVEN LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND NO LIFT WITH
NO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EVIDENT IN NWLY FLOW OVERHEAD.

WARM TEMPS MONDAY TO BE REPLACED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THEN ONLY TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS. REINFORCING COOL AIR BEHIND THURSDAYS FRONT COULD LEAD TO
COOLEST NIGHTTIME TEMPS OF THE SEASON LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  86  52  75  38 /   0   0   0  10   0
TULIA         50  87  54  78  39 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  86  54  80  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     50  86  54  81  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       53  87  56  82  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  87  54  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    49  87  55  83  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  92  60  86  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  55  86  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  88  57  87  49 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07
435
FXUS64 KLUB 251719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FANTASTIC FLYING WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.
THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY GROUND FOG TOWARD DAWN
SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES OF ANY FOG DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING EITHER
TERMINAL IS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  85  54  79  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         53  86  56  81  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     53  85  56  82  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     52  85  57  83  47 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       54  86  58  84  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   52  85  57  83  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    53  86  57  84  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     59  90  60  89  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  86  57  87  53 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     58  87  58  87  56 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23
269
FXUS64 KLUB 251105
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
605 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH LBB AND CDS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  50  85  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  53  86  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  53  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     85  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  54  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  59  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          88  54  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  58  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26/16
999
FXUS64 KLUB 250807
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS ITERATION OF THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AS THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES OVERHEAD.  WHILE 24 HOURS AGO WEST TEXAS WAS DEALING
WITH PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD KEEP FOG AT BAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT.  THE INHERITED LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK FOR THIS
MORNING...WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON
THE SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THE ROLLING PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES YET
AGAIN...AND PERHAPS EVEN A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
RECORDS FOR TODAY AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 AND 94 DEGREES
RESPECTIVELY...AND WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY JUST A
SHADE BELOW THOSE NUMBERS IT IS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY TO SEE A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RECORD HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
THE READINGS THIS MORNING...AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 10 TO 15 MILES PER
HOUR DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY...AND BLUEBIRD SKIES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO A
TROUGHINESS OUT WEST THIS WEEKEND.  THIS WILL YIELD BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL THE TROUGH
AXIS SHARPENS ON MONDAY.  SOME RESIDUAL ENERGY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE AN EVEN HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS
POSITIONED FROM THE DESERT SW ALL THE WAY UP THE NORTHERN PART OF
ALASKA.  IN LOOKING AT THE ECM...LAST NIGHT WE MENTIONED THE
POTENTIAL OF A FREEZE AROUND HALLOWEEN.  HOWEVER...THE MJO DOES NOT
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY FOR SUPPORT OF AN EVENT FOR
US...THUS...PROBABLY BEST TO NOT GET TOO EXCITED FOR THOSE PROSPECTS
QUITE YET.  IN FACT...USING THE MJO ALONE AS AN INDICATOR...IT MAY
TAKE US UNTIL ABOUT MID-NOVEMBER TO GET A GOOD COLD-AIR DUMP INTO
THE REGION.  BUT I DIGRESS.

AFTER MILDLY BREEZY DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AN INTERESTING PERIOD
COMES MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  THE GFS/ECM
SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS TIME OF YEAR...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE NAM...ON THE OTHER
HAND...IS AN OUTLIER AS IT DEVELOPS PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
PUSHES THROUGH OUR EASTERN ZONES.  GIVEN THAT THIS SO RARELY
HAPPENS...AM INCLINED TO DISCOUNT THAT SOLUTION ATTM. DRIER AIR
STAYS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN DEWPOINTS
START CREEPING BACK INTO THE 40S. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT DOES LOOK
TO ENTER THE PICTURE ON THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY DRY AS WELL.  AFTER A
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO GET BACK TO JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  50  85  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  53  86  56  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  53  85  56  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     85  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       87  54  86  58  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  52  85  57  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  53  86  57  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     94  59  90  60  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          88  54  86  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  58  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/26
202
FXUS64 KLUB 250434
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGHS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 DEGREES /1959/ AND 94 DEGREES
/2011/...RESPECTIVELY...FOR OCTOBER 25TH /SATURDAY/. BEFORE
THEN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE
BACK DOWN INTO 50S FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE LOWS BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE
OF MIDDLE 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEWPOINT...BUT THE RISK LOOKS EVEN MORE
LIMITED THAN THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED THE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THICKNESSES LOWER
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL COUNTERACT MUCH OF THE COOLING
DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY HELPING LOWER TEMPS
TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE FOR THE WEEK. PRECIP LOOKING
UNLIKELY WITH TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT UNFAVORABLE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITED FOR THE FRONT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY NWLY MID TO UPPER FLOW AND A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  85  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  84  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  92  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
178
FXUS64 KLUB 242307
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
607 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AT EITHER TAF SITE BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGHS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 DEGREES /1959/ AND 94 DEGREES
/2011/...RESPECTIVELY...FOR OCTOBER 25TH /SATURDAY/. BEFORE
THEN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE
BACK DOWN INTO 50S FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE LOWS BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE
OF MIDDLE 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEWPOINT...BUT THE RISK LOOKS EVEN MORE
LIMITED THAN THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED THE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THICKNESSES LOWER
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL COUNTERACT MUCH OF THE COOLING
DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY HELPING LOWER TEMPS
TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE FOR THE WEEK. PRECIP LOOKING
UNLIKELY WITH TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT UNFAVORABLE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITED FOR THE FRONT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY NWLY MID TO UPPER FLOW AND A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  85  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  84  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  92  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
251
FXUS64 KLUB 242007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER WEST TEXAS THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE LATE OCTOBER AVERAGES. IN FACT...AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL PEAK IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW
LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OFF THE CAPROCK. THESE HIGHS ARE AROUND 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD LEVELS. THE RECORD
HIGHS AT LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ARE 91 DEGREES /1959/ AND 94 DEGREES
/2011/...RESPECTIVELY...FOR OCTOBER 25TH /SATURDAY/. BEFORE
THEN...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE
BACK DOWN INTO 50S FOR MOST SPOTS TONIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK MAY SEE LOWS BRIEFLY TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WITH EVEN A COUPLE
OF MIDDLE 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE SANDY SOILS OF OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES...LIKE WE SAW THIS MORNING. THERE MAY AGAIN BE AT LEAST SOME
RISK OF PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE DEWPOINT...BUT THE RISK LOOKS EVEN MORE
LIMITED THAN THIS MORNING AND WE HAVE EXCLUDED THE MENTION FROM THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS AFTERNOON WITH WHAT IS A FAIRLY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD FORECAST. WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHT COOLING MONDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THICKNESSES LOWER
ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER WINDS VEERING TO THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE WILL COUNTERACT MUCH OF THE COOLING
DUE TO LOWERING THICKNESSES. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY HELPING LOWER TEMPS
TO OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER FRONT THURSDAY WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS IN A FAIRLY NARROW RANGE FOR THE WEEK. PRECIP LOOKING
UNLIKELY WITH TIMING OF INITIAL FRONT UNFAVORABLE AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LIKELY LIMITED FOR THE FRONT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY NWLY MID TO UPPER FLOW AND A
LIMITED AMOUNT OF RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN FRONTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        46  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         54  86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     49  85  53  87  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       51  85  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  84  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    54  84  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  92  58  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          53  88  55  88  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     59  90  57  88  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07

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