Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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599
FXUS64 KLUB 311752
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1252 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS VEERING SOUTHERLY BY SAT MORNING.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ALL TREATS AND NO TRICKS FOR THIS HALLOWEEN DAY. SHORT WAVE RIDGING
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL BATTLE THE COOL SURFACE RIDGE FOR
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIKELY
WIN OUT KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A
THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY OFF THE
CAPROCK IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. IT IS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER THE CLOUDS WILL BE TOO LATE TO PREVENT A FREEZE FROM
OCCURRING.

LONG TERM...
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH LITTLE DISAGREEMENT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST FEATURES EARLY IN THE WEEK ARE QUITE
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE ALLOWED US TO RAMP SHOWER CHANCES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WHAT APPEARS THE MOST PROMISING PERIOD OF RAIN
CHANCE...LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN
ZONES. FOLLOWING AN UPPER RIDGE PASSAGE SATURDAY WE WILL ENTER AN
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOWLY APPROACHING LONG-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. AND
LEADING TO CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUESDAY. AN EJECTING WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY APPEARS
CAPABLE OF ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A LOW CONDITIONAL THUNDER CHANCE
SUNDAY AND IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST CHANGES FOR THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD
IN ADDITION TO THOSE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES LATER MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE INCREASINGLY POSITIVE TILTED
AS NORTHERN STREAM DEAMPLIFIES AND ACCELERATED...THUS SHOULD LEAD
TO NOTABLE DRYING WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER...STARTING TUESDAY WE HAVE
LESS SOLUTION SIMILARITY WITH HOW LOW PRESSURE CUTTING OFF ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEHAVE. THIS MORNINGS TRENDS
INDICATE MODEST SIMILARITY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN EASTWARD DRIFT TOWARDS OUR
AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH LARGE SOLUTION
SPREADS EXIST...THE IDEA OF A WEAK APPROACHING UPPER LOW LOOKS
SUPPORTED ENOUGH FOR A LOW MENTION FOR SHOWERS. WE ARE NOT WILLING
TO ADD MORE THAN THAT JUST YET GIVEN THE PHASING PROBLEMS WEVE
BEEN SEEING WITH THIS PATTERN BETWEEN THE ACTIVE AND DEAMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM AND A CUTOFF SLOWER SOUTHERN STREAM. STILL...THE
INTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS MID-WEEK WAS THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FOR
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  33  63  43  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     61  33  62  44  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     63  34  64  45  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       64  35  63  46  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
DENVER CITY   64  36  65  47  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    64  36  65  46  72 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     62  34  61  43  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
SPUR          64  35  63  46  70 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     65  36  63  47  72 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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