Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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861
FXUS64 KLUB 130436
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT AND STRONG LIFT
FROM DYNAMIC SYSTEM PUSHING AWAY FROM BOTH TERMINALS. QUESTION NOW
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD COVER. SIGHTS UPSTREAM FROM KCDS
SUGGEST MAY END UP SEEING SOME PERIODIC MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH
MODELS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. ATTM WILL PLAN ON THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
ROUTE...BUT WILL MAKE ONE FINAL REEVALUATION AT ISSUANCE TIME.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BUT THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHER
ISSUE IS WINDS. STRONGER WINDS SLOW TO ARRIVE...BUT SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH PEAK WINDS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED THE SEVERE THREAT TO HAVE SHIFTED TO
ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THOUGH...RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED THE WX PACKAGE TO
REFLECT THIS CHANGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGHLY DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM TO CROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WILL
BRING STRONG WEST THEN NORTH WINDS AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WILL RUN WITH A PERIOD OF TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS KCDS LATER TONIGHT ALONG WITH POSSIBLITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS.
GUSTY WEST AND SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND NW WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 04Z. GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW BEFORE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX MONDAY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO COLORADO
AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS SCARCE WITH THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...DYNAMIC LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED ~130 KNOT JET STREAK ON ITS
WESTERN FLANK WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT THIS
EVENING AS A DIFFUSE DRYLINE RETREATS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT TO INITIATE UNTIL A
COLD FRONT...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN KANSAS/WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...DRAWS NEARER AND PROVIDES THE LOW LEVEL FOCUS
FOR ASCENT TO OVERCOME LOCAL CAPPING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS WITH ORIENTATION PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...LIKELY LEADING TO LINEAR STORM MODES AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE
CELLS. STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS OF
30-40 DEGREES. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BECOME A POSSIBILITY WITH TIME
AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH FALLING HEIGHTS/COOLING ALOFT.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
IT PASSES EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALL EVENING AND
NIGHT AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. THE
LARGEST PRESSURE RISES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GREATEST WINDS ALOFT SHOULD MAINLY CLEAR THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...KEEPING SPEEDS FROM BECOMING TOO
OUT OF CONTROL AS THEY MAY IF OCCURRING SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH PEAK
HEATING AND TURBULENT MIXING. 700 MB 200 NAUTICAL MILE HEIGHT
GRADIENTS OF 60 METERS OR GREATER SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT
LEAST 25 MPH...WITH SPEEDS OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER LIKELY AT TIMES OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FROM 4 AM
UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 15 MPH. SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

LONG TERM...
DRY...WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A BIG DIURNAL TEMP RANGE.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE CHILLY...WITH LOWS LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW 40 ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RECOVER
BACK INTO THE 70S...THEN WARM FURTHER INTO THE 70S AND 80S ON WED
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES WHICH
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY/S TEMP FORECAST. EVEN SO...A BIG COOL
DOWN IS NOT EXPECTED. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS UPSLOPE/EASTERLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS WASHES IT OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPS...MOISTURE LEVELS AND CLOUD COVER. WE/LL ALSO
BE WATCHING A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SW STATES THAT
COULD APPROACH THE CWA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  64  39  73  43 /  30   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  65  40  74  43 /  30  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  66  41  74  43 /  40   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  66  41  74  44 /  40   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  67  42  75  46 /  50   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  68  41  75  45 /  20   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  68  41  75  45 /  30   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  70  44  76  46 /  70  10   0   0   0
SPUR          50  70  43  76  47 /  70  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  72  46  76  48 /  70  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>038.

&&

$$

07

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