Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
165
FXUS64 KLUB 210541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG REMAIN EAST OF BOTH KLBB AND KCDS...BUT EXPECT
SOME PATCHY FOG AND ASSOCIATED LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP NEAR KCDS BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEARER LONGER TONIGHT AS
HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SAVING GRACE TO MUCH
FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE WINDS BACKING NORTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AS
OPPOSED TO REMAINING EASTERLY WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION. NONETHELESS...A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES
LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING AT KCDS WITH CONDITIONS
RETURNING TO VFR CRITERIA BY LATE MORNING AS MIXING COMMENCES.
KLBB SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF ANY MENTIONABLE FOG DEVELOPMENT...SO
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR NOW. COULD SEE SOME
DEGRADATION FOR BOTH SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD COME
FRIDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES AFTER 00Z SATURDAY
AS A RESPECTABLE LOW CUTS OFF ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA. THIS WILL
BE COVERED IN THE LONG TERM BELOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHWEST ACROSS OUR CWFA THIS EVENING BEFORE WASHING OUT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...WIND DIRECTION...WHILE QUITE LIGHT BY WEST TEXAS
STANDARDS...WILL BE VARIABLE AND HARD TO NAIL DOWN AT ANY ONE
LOCATION THOUGH THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WINDS TO REMAIN NORTHERLY
IN THE NE AND SRLY IN THE SW. MUCH OF THE EVENING SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INVADE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AT LEAST FOR PART OF THE
NIGHT IN THE WEST. OFF ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HOWEVER...THE
HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD HOLD OFF SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A
RESULT...WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT
BEFORE CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHWARD
TROUGH FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME WHICH WILL NOT BODE WELL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL PLACE THE PRECIPITATION EVENT MORE TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING
THAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS LIFT WILL QUICKLY SCOOT EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR OVER
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE CAPROCK WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS BUT STILL A GOOD INCREASE IN WINDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE VEERED
ON THE CAPROCK.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. MODELS SHOW VALUES OVER ONE INCH OFF THE
CAPROCK WITH VALUES NEARING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AROUND KLBB.
THIS MAY LEND TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. GOOD SHEAR COMBINING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG MAY PROMOTE SOME STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.

A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THIS TROUGHS
PASSAGE COMPLETE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. LARGER INCONSISTENCIES
ENTER THE FORECAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC AIR
DUMP AROUND THANKSGIVING DAY. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN MUCH BETTER RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE GFS IN SHOWING THIS COLD AIR DUMP ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL DEPICTING A HIGH
SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  25  62  36  64 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         60  28  61  39  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  29  61  41  65 /   0   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     65  31  65  41  64 /   0   0   0  30  20
LUBBOCK       65  32  64  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
DENVER CITY   67  34  67  43  64 /   0   0   0  40  10
BROWNFIELD    66  33  66  43  65 /   0   0   0  40  20
CHILDRESS     62  36  61  44  61 /   0   0  10  60  60
SPUR          66  33  66  45  64 /   0   0   0  60  50
ASPERMONT     68  39  67  48  64 /   0   0   0  80  80

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.