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264
FXUS64 KLUB 212154
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AS A
VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. THIS ENERGY WILL HELP SHARPEN THE TROUGH AND CLOSE OFF A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IN
THE MEANTIME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP DEEPEN A SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVE IT
EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP KEEP WINDS MIXED AND
COMBINED WITH ADVANCING CIRRUS RESULT IN RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH OR WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPING
VICINITY THE RED RIVER. SOME FOG MAY FORM VERY NEAR THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA AS A RESULT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
THE TROUGH SHIFTS WELL EAST BY DAWN.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE TROUGH AS A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ALOFT MAY TEMPORARILY
MIX TO THE SURFACE EARLY IN THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AS A LINGERING THERMAL RIDGE ALLOWS TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM
THERE. MEANWHILE H8 COLD ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CREATE A
GOOD N/S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ANY FORCING FOR ASCENT THAT BEGINS TO
SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS LATE IN
THE DAY WILL BE BATTLING RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS SO DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY DAYTIME POPS OF NOTE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SHARP TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY THROUGH
MID-DAY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STRONG LIFT
SPREADING OVER OUR NW COUNTIES MONDAY EVENING. MUCH OF THE INITIAL
LIFT WILL GO TOWARD MOISTENING AND COOLING THE COLUMN...BUT LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 7 PM OR SO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS
EARLY AS 9 PM IN THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND BY MIDNIGHT WE COULD SEE
SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AS THE TRANSITION ZONE
ADVANCES SEWD. FORECAST X-SECTIONS SHOW A PERIOD OF STRONG LIFT IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ALTHOUGH THE CROSSOVER BETWEEN LIFT AND
SATURATION SHOULD BE NARROW. WITH SURFACE TEMPS HOVERING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT HOW MUCH
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE REALIZED. SREF MEANS ARE ON THE
ORDER OF A HALF INCH TO INCH WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD
PRESENT IN THE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS. QPF FIELDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WESTERN SPLNS IF TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT...HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL IMPROVE CLARITY
WITH TEMPS. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT PRECIP AT LOWER ELEVATIONS OFF
THE CAPROCK TO REMAIN LIQUID...ALTHOUGH AGAIN...SURFACE TEMPS WILL
BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING THAT A LIGHT MIX CAN/T BE RULED OUT.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IN THE HWO AND THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD IMPACT THE
TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE AROUND LUBBOCK.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN. THE GFS
MOS GUIDANCE GIVES US POSSIBLE ADVISORY WIND SPEEDS. WE WILL KEEP
THE WIND SPEED JUST SHY OF ADVISORY FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
CLOUD COVER. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE BLUSTERY ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILLS ONLY IN THE 20S AND 30S
ACROSS ALL BUT THE SE.

WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE
COOL NW FLOW WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. SE BREEZES WILL RETURN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ANOTHER COLD SURGE
NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE OF CLIMO FOR MUCH OF THAT PERIOD BUT PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SLIM AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  52  24  40  18 /   0  10  60   0   0
TULIA         35  52  26  40  22 /   0  10  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  55  28  41  24 /   0  10  60  10   0
LEVELLAND     39  60  28  43  23 /   0  10  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       39  59  30  43  25 /   0  10  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   43  67  30  45  25 /   0  10  50  20   0
BROWNFIELD    41  65  30  44  25 /   0  10  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     41  58  34  47  30 /   0   0  20  10   0
SPUR          41  61  33  47  28 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     43  65  37  50  30 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/33
803
FXUS64 KLUB 211750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS CLEARED KCDS EARLIER WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER ERN NM WILL KEEP WESTERLY WINDS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS VEER OVERNIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES EAST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH WAS FOUND PUSHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AT 09Z AHEAD OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. EAST OF THIS TROUGH
IS WHERE STRATUS HAS BEEN ANCHORED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER UNLIKE RECENT DAYS WE EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM W-E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOTORS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOG-WISE...AREA
CAMERAS AND METARS AT 09Z SHOW THE LOWEST VISBYS OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SEMINOLE TO LUBBOCK TO
LAMESA. HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
BUT ITS VISBYS REMAIN TOO PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO GROUND TRUTH AND
THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ANY NEED FOR
A HEADLINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS...
BUT EVEN THIS WINDOW IS SHRINKING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
EDGING CLOSER WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP RID ANY
LINGERING STRATUS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDDAY WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO BOOST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO NEARLY 561 DAM. OPTED
FOR THE BCCONSALL WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS REMAINING GUIDANCE
LOOKED TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN OF DEEP WLY FLOW AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THESE MILD THICKNESS VALUES FALL VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT THANKS TO AN IMPRESSIVE LL THERMAL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH
AHEAD OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT...SO MIN TEMPS WERE BOOSTED 2 TO 5
DEGREES. THESE SEEMINGLY MILD LOW TEMPS MAY STILL PROVE TOO COOL
GIVEN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

LONG TERM...
COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST ONE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL LOCATION IS WAFFLING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE TIME OF THE RUN. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WIND WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH THIS WILL SET UP ABOUT A 10-14 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 140-160KT JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS THE TROF AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE REGION. A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AT
THE SAME TIME THE TROF IS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING SATURATION. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN
SO THAT WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUCH STRONG LIFT AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 06Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START
A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW LINE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A LUBBOCK TO DENVER CITY LINE LEAVING
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS ALL RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BUMP UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY FAST END BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE PRETTY COLD WITH SOME MID 20 F READINGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
LEE SURFACE TROF HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE BREEZY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP WIND SPEEDS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS WAS BELIEVED 2-3 DAYS AGO. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION
MAKING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL CHRISTMAS. HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
KIND OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.

AFTER CHRISTMAS AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT OF A WARMUP WILL ENSUE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        34  56  25  41  22 /   0   0  50   0   0
TULIA         35  56  28  42  24 /   0   0  50   0   0
PLAINVIEW     36  58  29  42  25 /   0   0  50  10   0
LEVELLAND     37  63  30  44  26 /   0   0  50  10   0
LUBBOCK       38  61  31  44  26 /   0   0  50  10   0
DENVER CITY   39  68  32  46  27 /   0   0  50  10   0
BROWNFIELD    38  67  32  45  27 /   0   0  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     37  59  35  48  29 /   0   0  30  10   0
SPUR          39  63  36  48  30 /   0   0  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     42  67  38  51  31 /   0   0  40  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/24
947
FXUS64 KLUB 211137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF IFR STRATUS RECENTLY EXITED PVW AND WILL DO THE
SAME AT LBB BEFORE 14Z AS DRIER WSW WINDS ARRIVE AND RESTORE
VFR LEVELS. VISBYS ARE ALSO ON THE REBOUND...THOUGH THESE MAY
STILL FALL TO 1SM OR LESS BEFORE 14Z. DURATION AND UNCERTAINTY
OF THIS SCENARIO PRECLUDES A TEMPO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TIMING THE DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO CDS STILL YIELDS A
17Z TARGET TIME FROM EARLIER TAFS. UNTIL THEN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL WITH JUST FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOB 1K FEET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH WAS FOUND PUSHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AT 09Z AHEAD OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. EAST OF THIS TROUGH
IS WHERE STRATUS HAS BEEN ANCHORED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER UNLIKE RECENT DAYS WE EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM W-E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOTORS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOG-WISE...AREA
CAMERAS AND METARS AT 09Z SHOW THE LOWEST VISBYS OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SEMINOLE TO LUBBOCK TO
LAMESA. HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
BUT ITS VISBYS REMAIN TOO PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO GROUND TRUTH AND
THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ANY NEED FOR
A HEADLINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS...
BUT EVEN THIS WINDOW IS SHRINKING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
EDGING CLOSER WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP RID ANY
LINGERING STRATUS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDDAY WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO BOOST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO NEARLY 561 DAM. OPTED
FOR THE BCCONSALL WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS REMAINING GUIDANCE
LOOKED TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN OF DEEP WLY FLOW AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THESE MILD THICKNESS VALUES FALL VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT THANKS TO AN IMPRESSIVE LL THERMAL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH
AHEAD OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT...SO MIN TEMPS WERE BOOSTED 2 TO 5
DEGREES. THESE SEEMINGLY MILD LOW TEMPS MAY STILL PROVE TOO COOL
GIVEN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

LONG TERM...
COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST ONE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL LOCATION IS WAFFLING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE TIME OF THE RUN. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WIND WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH THIS WILL SET UP ABOUT A 10-14 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 140-160KT JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS THE TROF AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE REGION. A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AT
THE SAME TIME THE TROF IS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING SATURATION. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN
SO THAT WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUCH STRONG LIFT AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 06Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START
A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW LINE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A LUBBOCK TO DENVER CITY LINE LEAVING
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS ALL RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BUMP UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY FAST END BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE PRETTY COLD WITH SOME MID 20 F READINGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
LEE SURFACE TROF HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE BREEZY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP WIND SPEEDS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS WAS BELIEVED 2-3 DAYS AGO. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION
MAKING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL CHRISTMAS. HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
KIND OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.

AFTER CHRISTMAS AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT OF A WARMUP WILL ENSUE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NIL.
&&

$$

93/14/93
102
FXUS64 KLUB 211034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
434 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE TROUGH WAS FOUND PUSHING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COLUMN OF
COUNTIES AT 09Z AHEAD OF MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS. EAST OF THIS TROUGH
IS WHERE STRATUS HAS BEEN ANCHORED SINCE EARLY LAST NIGHT...
HOWEVER UNLIKE RECENT DAYS WE EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO QUICKLY
ERODE FROM W-E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOTORS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
S/W TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOG-WISE...AREA
CAMERAS AND METARS AT 09Z SHOW THE LOWEST VISBYS OF 1/2 TO 1 MILE
CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA FROM SEMINOLE TO LUBBOCK TO
LAMESA. HRRR HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR FOG FOR SEVERAL RUNS...
BUT ITS VISBYS REMAIN TOO PESSIMISTIC COMPARED TO GROUND TRUTH AND
THIS REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND ANY NEED FOR
A HEADLINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN NOWCASTS...
BUT EVEN THIS WINDOW IS SHRINKING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
EDGING CLOSER WITH IMPROVING VISBYS.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED S/W TROUGH WILL HELP RID ANY
LINGERING STRATUS FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS BY MIDDAY WHILE ALSO
SERVING TO BOOST 1000-500MB THICKNESSES TO NEARLY 561 DAM. OPTED
FOR THE BCCONSALL WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS REMAINING GUIDANCE
LOOKED TOO COOL FOR THIS PATTERN OF DEEP WLY FLOW AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THESE MILD THICKNESS VALUES FALL VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT THANKS TO AN IMPRESSIVE LL THERMAL RIDGE MIGRATING SOUTH
AHEAD OF MONDAY/S COLD FRONT...SO MIN TEMPS WERE BOOSTED 2 TO 5
DEGREES. THESE SEEMINGLY MILD LOW TEMPS MAY STILL PROVE TOO COOL
GIVEN WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT OF 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COMPLICATED LONG TERM FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE AREA. FIRST ONE WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. FRONTAL LOCATION IS WAFFLING NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON THE MODEL AND
THE TIME OF THE RUN. HOWEVER...GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE FRONT
TO MAKE IT INTO ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH WIND WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT ENOUGH THIS WILL SET UP ABOUT A 10-14 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY...A CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG 140-160KT JET WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW HELPING TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW AS THE TROF AXIS IS JUST
WEST OF THE REGION. A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AT
THE SAME TIME THE TROF IS MOVING OVERHEAD WHICH WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAIN ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE COLUMN WILL
MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING SATURATION. STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL HELP TO COOL THE COLUMN
SO THAT WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUCH STRONG LIFT AND A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AROUND 06Z MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS IN A BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION WILL START OFF AS RAIN AND THEN START
A TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN
ALL SNOW. SNOW LINE WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT TO THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK AND AS FAR SOUTH AS A LUBBOCK TO DENVER CITY LINE LEAVING
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AS ALL RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD BUMP UP CLOSE
TO AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO A FAIRLY FAST END BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS. COMBINED WITH THE STRONG NORTH WIND...WIND CHILL READINGS
WILL BE PRETTY COLD WITH SOME MID 20 F READINGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
LEE SURFACE TROF HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. CHRISTMAS DAY STILL APPEARS TO
BE BREEZY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A BROWN CHRISTMAS...MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP WIND SPEEDS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...MODELS NOW HAVE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH DOES
NOT FAVOR WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS WAS BELIEVED 2-3 DAYS AGO. LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WIND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE REGION
MAKING FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL CHRISTMAS. HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
KIND OF BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER AND HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT THE PEAK WIND SPEEDS WILL BE.

AFTER CHRISTMAS AND HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...A COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY AS THE BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. A BIT OF A WARMUP WILL ENSUE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW VEERS BACK TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  34  56  25  41 /   0   0   0  50   0
TULIA         58  35  56  28  42 /   0   0   0  50   0
PLAINVIEW     59  36  58  29  42 /   0   0   0  50  10
LEVELLAND     63  37  63  30  44 /   0   0   0  50  10
LUBBOCK       63  38  61  31  44 /   0   0   0  50  10
DENVER CITY   62  39  68  32  46 /   0   0   0  50  10
BROWNFIELD    62  38  67  32  45 /   0   0   0  50  10
CHILDRESS     61  37  59  35  48 /   0   0   0  30  10
SPUR          63  39  63  36  48 /   0   0   0  40  10
ASPERMONT     64  42  67  38  51 /   0   0   0  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
690
FXUS64 KLUB 210541
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPING ABOUT AS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SE WINDS
STAYING UP ENOUGH THAT DENSE FOG MAY NOT END UP BEING AS BIG A
CONCERN OVERNIGHT. TIME WILL TELL. STILL...SHOULD SEE IFR TO LIFR
CIGS ON THE CAPROCK AFFECTING BOTH KLBB AND KPVW WHILE OFF THE
CAPROCK CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH A THREAT FOR IFR TOWARD
SUNRISE. SFC TROUGH WITH DRIER SW TO WEST WINDS TO SCOUR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EWD WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

AVIATION...
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND PERSISTING PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY...PARTICULARY ON THE CAPROCK.
BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF KPVW AND KLBB BUT STAND POISED
NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM A RETURN. SHOULD THEY RETURN FIRST...
PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DECREASES AND/OR IS DELAYED UNTIL
SFC SATURATION CAN OCCUR. KCDS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR
CIGS BY MID EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT LIFR PROBABILITY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT STAVING OFF A PERIOD OF IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. MID TO LATE
MORNING SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH COMBINATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RECURRENT CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK TO BE A FACTOR AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SPLIT SHORTWV TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MORNINGS
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING
PLAINS OWING TO THE QUALITY OF THE LATE FALL MOISTURE. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL
ALLOW FOG AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT. WILL BANK ON LOWEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TO KEEP SURFACES FROM ACCUMULATING
LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THICKER LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS SATURATES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION AS WELL BUT SATURATION AND LIFT EXPECTED
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF DRIZZLE.

EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER TRANSITION TO CLEARING SKIES JUST BEYOND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWV AXIS PASSES AND
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTN SUN AHEAD
OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ON SUN EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT TIGHTER MID LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAILING SHORTWV. BUMPED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EARLY EXIT OF CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY...DRY WEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA RESULT IN MILD DAY-TIME TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE
SOUTH WITH A STRONG ULJ DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG IT/S WESTERN FLANK. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG COUPLED LIFT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 03 UTC AND
09 UTC. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY...SO IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG LIFT AND SATURATED PARCELS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE PRECIP RATES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN SOUTH PLAINS. AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE COVERAGE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOWERS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIQUID BEFORE ABOUT 05 UTC...BUT EVAPORATION
AND DIABATIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NW CWA. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WE EXPECT A LIGHT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A COLD...LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COOL
AND BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEPENING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUMPING UP INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILAR SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...TAKING A TRACK OUT OF THE NW THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIP BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST A
GLANCING BLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF BUILDS IN THE COLD AIRMASS MORE
SOLIDLY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TULIA         30  58  34  62  25 /   0   0   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     30  58  34  64  28 /   0   0   0   0  50
LEVELLAND     27  60  35  65  27 /   0   0   0   0  40
LUBBOCK       30  60  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0  50
DENVER CITY   28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
CHILDRESS     36  57  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  40
SPUR          41  62  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  40
ASPERMONT     41  62  39  67  36 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
893
FXUS64 KLUB 202341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
541 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND PERSISTING PAST SUNRISE SUNDAY...PARTICULARY ON THE CAPROCK.
BKN MVFR CIGS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF KPVW AND KLBB BUT STAND POISED
NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM A RETURN. SHOULD THEY RETURN FIRST...
PROBABILITY OF LIFR CONDITIONS DECREASES AND/OR IS DELAYED UNTIL
SFC SATURATION CAN OCCUR. KCDS LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR
CIGS BY MID EVENING WHICH WILL LIMIT LIFR PROBABILITY...ALTHOUGH
LIKELY NOT STAVING OFF A PERIOD OF IFR TOWARD SUNRISE. MID TO LATE
MORNING SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL AND SFC TROUGH COMBINATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RECURRENT CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK TO BE A FACTOR AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SPLIT SHORTWV TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MORNINGS
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING
PLAINS OWING TO THE QUALITY OF THE LATE FALL MOISTURE. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL
ALLOW FOG AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT. WILL BANK ON LOWEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TO KEEP SURFACES FROM ACCUMULATING
LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THICKER LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS SATURATES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION AS WELL BUT SATURATION AND LIFT EXPECTED
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF DRIZZLE.

EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER TRANSITION TO CLEARING SKIES JUST BEYOND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWV AXIS PASSES AND
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTN SUN AHEAD
OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ON SUN EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT TIGHTER MID LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAILING SHORTWV. BUMPED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EARLY EXIT OF CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY...DRY WEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA RESULT IN MILD DAY-TIME TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE
SOUTH WITH A STRONG ULJ DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG IT/S WESTERN FLANK. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG COUPLED LIFT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 03 UTC AND
09 UTC. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY...SO IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG LIFT AND SATURATED PARCELS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE PRECIP RATES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN SOUTH PLAINS. AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE COVERAGE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOWERS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIQUID BEFORE ABOUT 05 UTC...BUT EVAPORATION
AND DIABATIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NW CWA. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WE EXPECT A LIGHT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A COLD...LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COOL
AND BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEPENING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUMPING UP INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILAR SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...TAKING A TRACK OUT OF THE NW THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIP BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST A
GLANCING BLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF BUILDS IN THE COLD AIRMASS MORE
SOLIDLY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TULIA         30  58  34  62  25 /   0   0   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     30  58  34  64  28 /   0   0   0   0  50
LEVELLAND     27  60  35  65  27 /   0   0   0   0  40
LUBBOCK       30  60  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0  50
DENVER CITY   28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
CHILDRESS     36  57  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  40
SPUR          41  62  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  40
ASPERMONT     41  62  39  67  36 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
538
FXUS64 KLUB 202151
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
351 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RECURRENT CLOUDS AND FOG LOOK TO BE A FACTOR AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF
SPLIT SHORTWV TROUGHS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS MORNINGS
STRATUS HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BURN OFF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND ROLLING
PLAINS OWING TO THE QUALITY OF THE LATE FALL MOISTURE. BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S WILL
ALLOW FOG AND SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG TO DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK
OVERNIGHT. WILL BANK ON LOWEST TEMPERATURES AROUND SUNRISE WHEN
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN TO KEEP SURFACES FROM ACCUMULATING
LIGHT GLAZE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THICKER LOW STRATUS
IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP FURTHER EAST WHERE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS SATURATES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME
LIGHT QPF IN THIS REGION AS WELL BUT SATURATION AND LIFT EXPECTED
TO BE SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF DRIZZLE.

EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER TRANSITION TO CLEARING SKIES JUST BEYOND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWV AXIS PASSES AND
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO ADVECT IN DRIER AIR. OTHERWISE SOME
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTN SUN AHEAD
OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION JUST BEYOND THE SHORT
TERM. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART ON SUN EXCEPT FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER INTO THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT TIGHTER MID LEVEL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH TRAILING SHORTWV. BUMPED SPEEDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS. TEMP GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EARLY EXIT OF CLOUDS AND WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON MONDAY. INITIALLY...DRY WEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA RESULT IN MILD DAY-TIME TEMPS...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT...THE STORM SYSTEM WILL DIG TO THE
SOUTH WITH A STRONG ULJ DIVING SOUTHWARD ALONG IT/S WESTERN FLANK. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES...A COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
AS WELL. THIS WILL CREATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG COUPLED LIFT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAXIMIZED BETWEEN ABOUT 03 UTC AND
09 UTC. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE DRY...SO IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE COLUMN TO SATURATE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT QPF
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR THE
INTERSECTION OF STRONG LIFT AND SATURATED PARCELS...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF MODERATE PRECIP RATES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO ACROSS
THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN SOUTH PLAINS. AS CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED IN THE COVERAGE OF AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP...WE HAVE
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE...SHOWERS
SHOULD INITIALLY BE LIQUID BEFORE ABOUT 05 UTC...BUT EVAPORATION
AND DIABATIC COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NW CWA. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH IN THAT AREA...BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THINGS COME TOGETHER JUST
RIGHT. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WE EXPECT A LIGHT MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A COLD...LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A COOL
AND BLUSTERY DAY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

WE SHOULD SEE A MODEST WARM-UP ON WEDNESDAY WITH NW FLOW
CONTINUING ALOFT. THEN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...DEEP-LAYER FLOW SHOULD
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DEEPENING SFC LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS JUMPING UP INTO THE 60S DURING THE
DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KNOCKING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY BUT PRECIP CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILAR SYSTEM MAY FOLLOW FOR NEXT
WEEKEND...TAKING A TRACK OUT OF THE NW THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
PRECIP BUT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER SHOT OF COLD AIR.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AS THE GFS SUGGESTS JUST A
GLANCING BLOW WHEREAS THE ECMWF BUILDS IN THE COLD AIRMASS MORE
SOLIDLY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  60  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  10  50
TULIA         30  58  34  62  25 /   0   0   0  10  50
PLAINVIEW     30  58  34  64  28 /   0   0   0   0  50
LEVELLAND     27  60  35  65  27 /   0   0   0   0  40
LUBBOCK       31  60  36  66  29 /   0   0   0   0  50
DENVER CITY   28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
BROWNFIELD    28  62  36  67  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
CHILDRESS     36  57  36  63  36 /   0   0   0   0  40
SPUR          41  62  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  40
ASPERMONT     41  62  39  67  36 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/33
955
FXUS64 KLUB 201751
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
TRICKY TAF FORECAST WITH THIN STRATUS EROSION UNDERWAY AND RINSE
REPEAT CYCLE ON FOR REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO ADVECT NORTH OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING A QUICK END
TO MVFR/IFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK AT KLBB AND KPVW SITES RESPECTIVELY WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING AT KCDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD WHERE
MOISTURE REMAINS. ONSET OF STRATUS APPEARS TO OCCUR RATHER
UNIFORMLY BUT VEERING SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF LOW
CIGS ON THE CAPROCK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ON TRACK TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF STEADY SWLY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE AGAIN
SATURATED WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN ERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD STRATUS SHIELD. PROVIDED STRATUS
DOES NOT LOWER TO THE DECK...WE FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE DENSE FOG
WILL SPARE THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
STRATUS IS 1-2K FEET THINNER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...SO THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND SECURE MILDER TEMPS THAN
FRIDAY.

THE LARGER PICTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT PAINTS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGGED TO REACH WEST TX AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO POSITION A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TX-NM BORDER BY 06Z...SO SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE
VEERED THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. IMPLIED UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING OUT FROM
WEST-EAST BEHIND THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY CLEARING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT HANG ON AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SURFACE TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS THE
FRONT ALMOST THROUGH OUR AREA...ECMWF STALLS IT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...AND THE NAM HAS IT UP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SO...WHEREVER THE FRONT WILL END UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG JET WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THIS JET DIGS SOUTH...THE
TROF WILL DEEPEN ALOFT AND SHARPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE
FRONT. LIFT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...AND COUPLING WITH STRONG LIFT WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF ARE LOOKING TO ALL BE IN PLACE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS AND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OFF
ALL LIQUID. AS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT TAKES PLACE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...PROFILES MAY MANAGE TO SLIDE
BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOME AREAS OF ALL SNOW. AGAIN...
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF TRACE AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF...CARRYING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS US. THIS TOO PRODUCES
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF DUMPS A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR. WILL KEEP THINGS IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS OPPOSED TO
LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  59  35  62  29 /   0   0   0   0  30
TULIA         28  59  35  61  31 /   0   0   0   0  30
PLAINVIEW     30  59  36  63  31 /   0   0   0   0  30
LEVELLAND     28  61  38  64  32 /   0   0   0   0  20
LUBBOCK       32  61  37  64  33 /   0   0   0   0  30
DENVER CITY   31  63  37  67  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    31  63  38  66  33 /   0   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     35  57  37  65  36 /  10   0   0   0  20
SPUR          35  63  40  65  36 /   0   0   0   0  20
ASPERMONT     38  62  41  67  38 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/24
738
FXUS64 KLUB 201134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
534 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTN. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS WILL
LINGER AT LBB AND PVW /MVFR AT CDS/ THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE LIKELY
SCATTERING OUT BY 21Z OR SO. OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR A FEW HOURS
OF M1/4 VISBYS AT LBB AND PVW FROM 13Z-16Z...BUT THE ONE MODEL
INDICATING THIS IS OVERDOING THE EXTENT OF DENSE FOG AT 11Z AS
COMPARED TO REGIONAL METARS AND SKYCAMS...SO WILL KEEP DENSE FOG
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

MODELS SUGGEST STRATUS IS THINNER THAN FRI...SO A SOLID WINDOW
FOR VFR WILL BE KEPT OPEN LATER THIS AFTN. MVFR CIGS HOWEVER ARE
LIKELY TO REVISIT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH LOW VISBYS AND
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT LBB AND PVW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ON TRACK TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF STEADY SWLY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE AGAIN
SATURATED WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN ERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD STRATUS SHIELD. PROVIDED STRATUS
DOES NOT LOWER TO THE DECK...WE FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE DENSE FOG
WILL SPARE THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
STRATUS IS 1-2K FEET THINNER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...SO THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND SECURE MILDER TEMPS THAN
FRIDAY.

THE LARGER PICTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT PAINTS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGGED TO REACH WEST TX AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO POSITION A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TX-NM BORDER BY 06Z...SO SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE
VEERED THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. IMPLIED UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING OUT FROM
WEST-EAST BEHIND THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY CLEARING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT HANG ON AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SURFACE TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS THE
FRONT ALMOST THROUGH OUR AREA...ECMWF STALLS IT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...AND THE NAM HAS IT UP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SO...WHEREVER THE FRONT WILL END UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG JET WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THIS JET DIGS SOUTH...THE
TROF WILL DEEPEN ALOFT AND SHARPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE
FRONT. LIFT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...AND COUPLING WITH STRONG LIFT WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF ARE LOOKING TO ALL BE IN PLACE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS AND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OFF
ALL LIQUID. AS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT TAKES PLACE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...PROFILES MAY MANAGE TO SLIDE
BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOME AREAS OF ALL SNOW. AGAIN...
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF TRACE AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF...CARRYING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS US. THIS TOO PRODUCES
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF DUMPS A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR. WILL KEEP THINGS IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS OPPOSED TO
LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NIL.
&&

$$

93/14/93
537
FXUS64 KLUB 201019
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
419 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE BACK EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS ON TRACK TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY AHEAD OF STEADY SWLY WINDS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING...LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET ARE AGAIN
SATURATED WITH SOME DENSE FOG IN ERN NM AND THE PERMIAN BASIN
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD STRATUS SHIELD. PROVIDED STRATUS
DOES NOT LOWER TO THE DECK...WE FEEL THE BRUNT OF THE DENSE FOG
WILL SPARE THE REGION THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE
STRATUS IS 1-2K FEET THINNER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO...SO THIS SHOULD BODE WELL FOR AN EARLIER ONSET OF CLEARING
FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND SECURE MILDER TEMPS THAN
FRIDAY.

THE LARGER PICTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT PAINTS AN IMPRESSIVE SPLIT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PAC NW WITH A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
PROGGED TO REACH WEST TX AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENHANCED WESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL SERVE TO POSITION A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG
THE TX-NM BORDER BY 06Z...SO SURFACE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE
VEERED THAN IN PAST NIGHTS. IMPLIED UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT
ADDITIONAL STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT SHOULD BEGIN MIXING OUT FROM
WEST-EAST BEHIND THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH...LIKELY CLEARING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT HANG ON AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL HELP
TO KEEP HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE SURFACE TROF AXIS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS HELPING TO KEEP DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MONDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKY
AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
POSSIBLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. GFS HAS THE
FRONT ALMOST THROUGH OUR AREA...ECMWF STALLS IT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE AREA...AND THE NAM HAS IT UP
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. SO...WHEREVER THE FRONT WILL END UP
WILL DETERMINE WHAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...READINGS SHOULD MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE MAY HAVE A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG JET WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE BACK SIDE OF A BROAD TROF
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THIS JET DIGS SOUTH...THE
TROF WILL DEEPEN ALOFT AND SHARPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH IN THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS WITH THE
FRONT. LIFT ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE FRONT...AND COUPLING WITH STRONG LIFT WITH
THE DEEPENING TROF ARE LOOKING TO ALL BE IN PLACE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOW MUCH WILL FALL AND WHAT TYPE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
BUT EXPECT LIGHT AMOUNTS AND FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO START OFF
ALL LIQUID. AS STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT TAKES PLACE AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS AT THE SURFACE...PROFILES MAY MANAGE TO SLIDE
BELOW FREEZING. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOME AREAS OF ALL SNOW. AGAIN...
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXPECTATION
OF TRACE AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY WILL BE 10-12 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THANKS TO THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH THE ECMWF NOW BRINGING ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WOULD PRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WHICH MAY BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GFS
IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROF...CARRYING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS US. THIS TOO PRODUCES
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WIND FOR CHRISTMAS DAY BUT SPEEDS ARE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE ECMWF. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF DUMPS A PRETTY COLD AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE DEPTH OF THE COLD
AIR. WILL KEEP THINGS IN LINE WITH THE SUPERBLEND AS OPPOSED TO
LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL OR THE OTHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  23  59  35  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         52  28  59  35  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     51  30  59  36  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     52  28  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  32  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   53  31  63  37  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  31  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     52  35  57  37  65 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPUR          50  35  63  40  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     52  38  62  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
565
FXUS64 KLUB 200521
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ALL THREE TAF SITES KEPT BOUNCING BETWEEN FEW-OVC MVFR CLOUD DECKS
TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS DO HINT AT DECKS DETERIORATING TO IFR TO
LIFR CLOUD DECKS OVERNIGHT. VIS HAS COMMENCED TO DROP TO 7SM AND
6SM DUE TO FOG AT KPVW AND KLBB RESPECTIVELY...AND IS EXPECTED TO
FALL TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CRITERIA OVERNIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH SATURDAY LATE MORNING. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND HAS VFR VIS
AND IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO MVFR CRITERIA. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL COMMENCE TO SCOUR OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KLBB AND KPVW...THOUGH MVFR DECKS WILL
LIKELY LINGER AT KCDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
854
FXUS64 KLUB 192325
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...THOUGH THE CLEARING LINE WAS NEARING KLBB AND KPVW AND
COULD THEREFORE RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT-BKN MVFR DECKS.
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WITH IFR CLOUD DECKS MAKING A
RETURN AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR FOG
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL VEER
TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND VEER FURTHER TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THEREAFTER THE SCOURING OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN OCCUR AT KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS WILL LIKELY HOLD
ON TO MVFR CLOUD DECKS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
765
FXUS64 KLUB 192213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
413 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTANT LOW CLOUD DECK AND FOG HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE.  CLEARING LINE HAS ALMOST MADE IT TO
LBB AND WE MAY SEE BRIEF CLEARING BEFORE MOISTURE RACES EASTWARD
TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN. INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN THIS EVENING PERHAPS THICKEST OUT WEST.  WITH FORECAST LOWS
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES...HAVE KEPT /THOUGH SHRUNK/
FZFG ACROSS PARMER/BAILEY/CASTRO COUNTIES TONIGHT.  INTO
SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO PUSH EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY THOUGH
REMAINING LONGEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT THE AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50.  WE
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW ON LEE SIDE OF ROCKIES FROM
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST FOR THE BEGINNING
OF LONGTERM. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROUGH AXIS CENTERED TO OUR EAST PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LATER MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA GIVEN
PROXIMITY TO HIGHER DEWPTS AND STEEPER PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS DROP TUESDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES DIVES
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MIDWEEK IS WHERE THE GFS/ECMWF BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. BOTH INDICATE AN UPPER TROUGH AND VORTMAX ENTERING THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY. THE GFS QUICKLY SHIFTS AND
FLATTENS THE TROUGH TO THE EAST RESULTING IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS THROUGH CHRISTMAS AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH
DEEPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE
WEST FRIDAY...IN FACT THE ECMWF INDICATES A JETMAX MOVING ACROSS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY UPWARDS OF 120KTS AT 300MB...WHILE THE GFS POSITIONS THE
JET FARTHER NORTH INTO KANSAS AND IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER. GFS SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT WITH OTHER LONGTERM GUIDANCE LEANING
TOWARD MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

EITHER WAY CHRISTMAS WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND POTENTIALLY WINDY AS WELL. THERES
PLENTY OF TIME TO WAIT FOR THE MODELS TO BUILD CONSENSUS AND HAMMER
OUT THE DETAILS FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NEXT
WEEK AND FOR NOW HAVE NO MENTION OF EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE POPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  53  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         30  53  33  58  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     32  53  34  59  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     30  54  35  60  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       32  53  36  61  37 /   0   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   31  54  35  61  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    32  54  37  62  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  49  37  57  37 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          33  52  39  60  38 /   0   0  10  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  53  39  60  40 /   0   0  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/55
078
FXUS64 KLUB 191817
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE IFR/LIFR CIGS WITH MVFR VSBYS
THROUGH FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS.
WRN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAS JUST MOVED E OF NM/TX STATE LINE
AND ANTICIPATE IT TO REACH KPVW/KLBB AROUND 20Z WITH CIGS/VSBYS
QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH MVFR TO VFR. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF FCST AT KCDS WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CIGS. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/99/99
423
FXUS64 KLUB 191213
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
LEVELS AT LBB AND PVW BY MID AFTN...HOWEVER CDS SHOWS LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF LIFTING BEYOND MVFR BY THAT TIME. OCNL MVFR CIGS AT
CDS ALREADY FROM -RA SHOULD UNDOUBTEDLY REVERT TO IFR IN A FEW
HOURS AFTER PRECIP DEPARTS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SWIFT MOVING
IMPULSE.

BY LATE THIS EVNG...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT LOW CIGS WILL
EXPAND WEST ATOP THE LBB AND PVW AIRSPACES. PREFERRED MODELS IN
THIS MOIST SETUP FAVOR IFR DECKS FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW VISBYS FROM FOG AND FREEZING FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14/93
698
FXUS64 KLUB 191017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT SHOWERS WERE MAKING A STEADY PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WELL
DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NEAR FT SUMNER/NM AT 09Z. SATELLITE
TRENDS REVEAL THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL
QUICKLY EXIT OUR ERN ZONES BY 15Z OR SO...SO POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED
BACK MARKEDLY THEREAFTER WITH NO PRECIP MENTION BY LATE MORNING.

THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY CONCERNS THE FIELD OF STRATUS ALREADY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPS. WEAK FLOW AT THE
SURFACE IN THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR LOW CLOUDS REMAINING INTACT FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER
COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING
TO MIX EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. SIDED WITH THE REALISTIC-
LOOKING NAM WHICH KEEPS STRATUS ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA ALL AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS IN THESE AREAS WERE THEREFORE
NUDGED DOWN IN LINE WITH THE LATEST CONSALL.

ONCE DAYTIME MIXING CEASES WEST OF THE STRATUS...CLOUDS SHOULD
UNDERGO A GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD AS COOL SURFACE RIDGING OOZES
WEST. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS ADVANCING STRATUS WOULD SEEM THE
MOST FAVORED FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME ICE
DEPOSITION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN FREEZING TEMPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP A BROAD MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY. MIN TEMPS FROM THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS
LOOK VERY MUCH ON PAR IN THIS FOGGY AND MOIST PATTERN WHICH AFTER
ALL WAS THE STORY NEARLY EVERY DAY LAST WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS A PRETTY GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL KEEP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT HOW FAR EAST SKIES WILL BE
ABLE TO CLEAR RESULTING IN A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH WARMER
SOUTHWEST TO COOLER NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BE
DRY HOWEVER AS MOISTURE WILL BE PRETTY SHALLOW AND STRONGEST
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
THE BRUNT OF THE COLD AIR WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LEAVING OUR AREA WITH MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW WHICH WILL RESULT IN
A SECOND PUSH OF COOL AIR TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DROP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY
AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A DRY PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT
BREEZY DEPENDING ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE GFS IS ABOUT 10
KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS SO WENT WITH A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN ALL THE MODELS FOR NOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE TRYING TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LACKING RIGHT NOW AND
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.

CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A DRY DAY. THE GFS
WANTS TO DEVELOP A STRONG WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. SUPERBLEND
FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND OPTED TO BUMP UP TEMPS 2-3
DEGREES FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT AS THE
GFS APPEARS TO BE FASTER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A
CLOSED LOW. ASIDE FROM BUMPING UP TEMPERATURES...WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK UNTOUCHED
FROM SUPERBLEND AS WE SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  26  53  26  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  29  54  30  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  31  54  32  58 /  10   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     50  29  54  30  60 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  30  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  31  54  32  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    51  31  54  33  61 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     45  35  53  37  55 /  30  10   0   0   0
SPUR          47  34  53  37  59 /  20   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  36  54  39  60 /  30  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
577
FXUS64 KLUB 190520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CLOUD DECKS PERSISTED AT KCDS...AND IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT KCDS
DECKS DETERIORATING TO IFR CRITERIA AS WELL OVERNIGHT. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MID-LATE
MORNING WHERE IT WILL SCATTER OUT THEREAFTER AT KPVW AND
KLBB...BUT RAISE BACK TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS. VISIBILITY HAS
INTERMITTENTLY FALLEN AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW...THUS VFR CONDITIONS
ENSUED. VISIBILITY BECOMING RESTRICTED TO AROUND 6 MILES OR SO
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW LOW IT WILL
GO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING WEATHER INTEREST. ATTENTION TURNS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHICH HAS
PROMOTED -SHRA WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW TONIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW
THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD SHIFT EAST AND AFFECT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY KCDS IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER /THUS
VISIBILITY MAY BECOME REDUCED FOR ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD/. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A TEMPO FOR -SHRA AT KLBB AND KPVW AT
THIS TIME...AND WILL PREFER TO SEE HOW RADAR TRENDS GO BEFORE
ADDING A PRECIP MENTION TO KCDS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
051
FXUS64 KLUB 182321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CLOUD DECKS AFFECTED KCDS EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHILE SCT-BKN VFR DECKS PASS OVERHEAD ACROSS KPVW AND
KLBB. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT CLOUD DECKS EXPANDING BACK TO ACROSS
KPVW AND KLBB TONIGHT...WITH DECKS LOWERING TO IFR CRITERIA AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES. MVFR FOG LOOKS MORE PLAUSIBLE FOR KPVW AND KLBB
FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR -SHRA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST FOR KLBB TO
BECOME AFFECTED BY THE PRECIPITATION...THUS A PROB30 WILL REMAIN
INSERTED FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. HARD TO SAY WHETHER THE ACTIVITY WILL
NEAR KPVW AND KCDS. WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
070
FXUS64 KLUB 182101
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
STRATUS POISED TO MOVE BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE
EVENING AS SFC WINDS VEER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN RESPONSE
TO PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THAT TROUGH
WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOCATED ACROSS SERN ARIZONA AND SWRN NEW MEXICO. MODELS
REMAIN GENERALLY CONSISTENT...ESPECIALLY WRF-NAM AND HI-RES
MODELS...IN SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE WRN ZONES ABOUT MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THEN TRACKING EWD DURING THE NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTN. IN GENERAL EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE LIGHT...ALTHOUGH MODELS
DO INDICATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO INCREASE FROM THE SRN ZONES SWD
WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME SLIGHTLY HEAVIER PRECIP THERE. MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIX IN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES...ALTHOUGH THAT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. WILL NUDGE POPS UP SOME INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT.
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT MILDER
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO RAW MODEL OUTPUT THAN MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE LONG TERM. WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY BRING MORE FOG TO THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST PUSHING
WARMER AND DRYER AIR IN TO THE FA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LEE TROF.
THE LEE TROF WILL BUILD AND GATHER COLD AIR BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE TROF WILL
TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
MONDAY AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MIDWEST SENDING THE COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTHWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY MID WEEK AS ANOTHER POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT STEPS UP ON DECK. UNFORTUNATELY THE GRINCH LOOKS TO BE HOLDING
THIS ONE ON THE TOP OF MOUNT CRUMPIT UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPS UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S...POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER...BY CHRISTMAS DAY. THAT WILL HAVE US
SINGING MELE KALIKIMAKA INSTEAD OF WHITE CHRISTMAS THIS YEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE SCALED BACK THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROF THAT WILL
BRING THIS FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK FROM A CLOSED 534 DM LOW TO AN OPEN
WAVE. DESPITE THAT TREND...AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE COLD
AS THE TROF WILL FUNNEL COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        32  50  23  54  25 /  30  10  10   0   0
TULIA         35  46  28  54  31 /  30  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  48  30  55  32 /  30  30  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     35  52  29  56  32 /  40  30  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       36  50  31  56  34 /  30  30  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   36  54  30  56  34 /  40  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    35  52  31  55  34 /  40  30  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  46  33  54  37 /  20  30  10   0  10
SPUR          36  48  32  55  37 /  30  40  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     40  49  35  58  40 /  20  30  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
018
FXUS64 KLUB 181720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
IFR OR LOWER END OF MVFR CATEGORY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
RETREAT SLOWLY NEWD...ENOUGH TO CLEAR KPVW THIS AFTN BUT NOT AT
KCDS. A SURGE OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DRAW THIS STRATUS BACK TO THE WEST THIS WEEK AND
IFR CIGS LIKELY AT KPVW AND KLBB. 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE SCATTERED...GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES
SOUTH OF A KPVW TO KCDS LINE. WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THOSE
TERMINALS ATTM BUT INSERT A MENTION OF -SHRA AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW WHILE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
HANGING ON AT KCDS. EXPECT TO SEE KCDS IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR
RANGE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE THROUGH
THE DAY. KLBB SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. KPVW IS
PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS
THIS TERMINAL. COMPUTER FORECASTS HAVE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KPVW THIS MORNING AND AWOS/ASOS SITES BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE ALL LIFR TO VLIFR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THAT
LIFR SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KLBB TERMINAL AND HAVE WRITTEN TAFS
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO MVFR AGAIN TONIGHT AND THEN
IFR TO LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT LOW IN THE TIMING. OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING CAN BE FIRMED UP
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MOST FAVORED TIME WILL BE 06Z - 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING AT KLBB AND KPVW...12Z-18Z KCDS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BLANKETED THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING WHILE
IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE CAPROCK
HAS STARTED TO VEER TO THE WEST WHICH IS HELPING TO PULL IN SOME
DRIER AIR AS WELL AS KEEP MIXING UP TO PREVENT FORMATION OF FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IS HOLDING MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WILL LIKELY DO SO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO
STORM SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES.  NEXT ONE TO IMPACT US WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL MAKE FAST PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL SEE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH COOL UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPROACHES THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...SURFACE WIND WILL START TO SWING BACK
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOIST UPSLOPE AND
RETURN FLOW.  MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL START TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE STORM SYSTEM.  BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY MORNING STARTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE
ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM THE BIG WINNER WITH SOME
HALF-INCH TOTALS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH LOWER IN LIQUID
AMOUNTS.

BIGGEST QUESTION...OTHER THAN WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING AT THE SURFACE THAT
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF A LEVELLAND TO SILVERTON LINE MAY SEE A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY BE NOTICEABLE ONLY ON GRASSY
OR ELEVATED SURFACES BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A TENTH OR TWO. REST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN LIQUID. TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY AS MODEL
BLENDS AND CONSENSUS DROPS AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS AND OPTED
TO GO 33-34 DEGREES AS OPPOSED TO 30-32 IN THIS REGION.
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE STORM SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
TRANSLATING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS ARE A
BIT SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THUS WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AS THE WAVE PASSES. IN TURN...MOST GUIDANCE GENERATES AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HINTS AT POSSIBLE BANDING THAT COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES. THESE BANDED FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING NARROW LAYERS OF EPV NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO WITH EVEN MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE IN A
FEW POCKETS. GIVEN THIS...WE CAN NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW BANDED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...THOUGH THE UPRIGHT INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER
MEAGER AND WE HAVE LEFT THE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED GREATER LIFT /VERSUS WHAT WAS PROGGED
24 HOURS AGO/ AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDED ELEMENTS...WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL MENTION ACROSS THE WEST. IT APPEARS A CHILLY RAIN WILL BE
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION MODE. THE LATEST PROGGED SOUNDINGS
EVEN SUGGEST THE NORTHWEST ZONES MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE P-TYPE LIQUID...BUT WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW HEAVIER
BANDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE ADDED DYNAMIC COOLING PULL
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE DOWN ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN...AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. HENCE...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH IT COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OFF THE CAPROCK...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY EVENING.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES/ WILL
RESULT IN A COOL DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
ABOVE THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH LOCATIONS NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE MAY ECLIPSE THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

BRIEF AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY/S STORM
SYSTEM BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH RACES PAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE DEVOID OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS SHOULD BE
A DRY PASSAGE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT WEST TEXAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MAY TRAVERSE
THE REGION WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THEY WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK ON...SO OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER APPEAR
THE MOST LIKELY BET...THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. REGARDLESS...THE PROSPECT OF ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS. MONDAY COULD
BE EVEN WARMER...THOUGH THIS IS IN QUESTION NOW WITH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGING A DECENT COLD FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH/ THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...INSTEAD OF DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. IN EITHER
CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING INTO THE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  33  48  23  53 /   0  30  10   0   0
TULIA         48  34  46  26  54 /   0  30  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     51  35  46  28  54 /   0  30  30   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  34  49  26  55 /   0  30  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  36  47  29  55 /   0  30  30   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  37  52  27  56 /   0  40  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  36  49  28  55 /   0  40  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  37  45  31  54 /   0  30  30  10   0
SPUR          57  35  45  30  55 /   0  30  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     59  39  47  32  56 /   0  40  40  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
135
FXUS64 KLUB 181130 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
530 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW WHILE LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
HANGING ON AT KCDS. EXPECT TO SEE KCDS IMPROVE BACK INTO MVFR
RANGE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE THROUGH
THE DAY. KLBB SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. KPVW IS
PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TOWARDS
THIS TERMINAL. COMPUTER FORECASTS HAVE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KPVW THIS MORNING AND AWOS/ASOS SITES BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE ALL LIFR TO VLIFR. GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THAT
LIFR SHOULD STAY NORTH OF KLBB TERMINAL AND HAVE WRITTEN TAFS
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GO MVFR AGAIN TONIGHT AND THEN
IFR TO LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT LOW IN THE TIMING. OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OF
PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW UNTIL TIMING CAN BE FIRMED UP
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MOST FAVORED TIME WILL BE 06Z - 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING AT KLBB AND KPVW...12Z-18Z KCDS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BLANKETED THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING WHILE
IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE CAPROCK
HAS STARTED TO VEER TO THE WEST WHICH IS HELPING TO PULL IN SOME
DRIER AIR AS WELL AS KEEP MIXING UP TO PREVENT FORMATION OF FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IS HOLDING MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WILL LIKELY DO SO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO
STORM SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES.  NEXT ONE TO IMPACT US WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL MAKE FAST PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL SEE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH COOL UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPROACHES THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...SURFACE WIND WILL START TO SWING BACK
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOIST UPSLOPE AND
RETURN FLOW.  MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL START TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE STORM SYSTEM.  BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY MORNING STARTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE
ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM THE BIG WINNER WITH SOME
HALF-INCH TOTALS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH LOWER IN LIQUID
AMOUNTS.

BIGGEST QUESTION...OTHER THAN WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING AT THE SURFACE THAT
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF A LEVELLAND TO SILVERTON LINE MAY SEE A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY BE NOTICEABLE ONLY ON GRASSY
OR ELEVATED SURFACES BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A TENTH OR TWO. REST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN LIQUID. TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY AS MODEL
BLENDS AND CONSENSUS DROPS AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS AND OPTED
TO GO 33-34 DEGREES AS OPPOSED TO 30-32 IN THIS REGION.
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE STORM SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
TRANSLATING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS ARE A
BIT SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THUS WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AS THE WAVE PASSES. IN TURN...MOST GUIDANCE GENERATES AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HINTS AT POSSIBLE BANDING THAT COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES. THESE BANDED FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING NARROW LAYERS OF EPV NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO WITH EVEN MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE IN A
FEW POCKETS. GIVEN THIS...WE CAN NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW BANDED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...THOUGH THE UPRIGHT INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER
MEAGER AND WE HAVE LEFT THE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED GREATER LIFT /VERSUS WHAT WAS PROGGED
24 HOURS AGO/ AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDED ELEMENTS...WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL MENTION ACROSS THE WEST. IT APPEARS A CHILLY RAIN WILL BE
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION MODE. THE LATEST PROGGED SOUNDINGS
EVEN SUGGEST THE NORTHWEST ZONES MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE P-TYPE LIQUID...BUT WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW HEAVIER
BANDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE ADDED DYNAMIC COOLING PULL
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE DOWN ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN...AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. HENCE...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH IT COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OFF THE CAPROCK...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY EVENING.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES/ WILL
RESULT IN A COOL DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
ABOVE THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH LOCATIONS NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE MAY ECLIPSE THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

BRIEF AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY/S STORM
SYSTEM BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH RACES PAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE DEVOID OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS SHOULD BE
A DRY PASSAGE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT WEST TEXAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MAY TRAVERSE
THE REGION WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THEY WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK ON...SO OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER APPEAR
THE MOST LIKELY BET...THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. REGARDLESS...THE PROSPECT OF ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS. MONDAY COULD
BE EVEN WARMER...THOUGH THIS IS IN QUESTION NOW WITH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGING A DECENT COLD FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH/ THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...INSTEAD OF DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. IN EITHER
CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING INTO THE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  33  48  23  53 /   0  30  10   0   0
TULIA         48  34  46  26  54 /   0  30  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     51  35  46  28  54 /   0  30  30   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  34  49  26  55 /   0  30  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  36  47  29  55 /   0  30  30   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  37  52  27  56 /   0  40  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  36  49  28  55 /   0  40  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  37  45  31  54 /   0  30  30  10   0
SPUR          57  35  45  30  55 /   0  30  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     59  39  47  32  56 /   0  40  40  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
380
FXUS64 KLUB 181000
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
400 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BLANKETED THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS MORNING WHILE
IT HAS BEEN FLIRTING WITH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  SURFACE WIND ACROSS THE CAPROCK
HAS STARTED TO VEER TO THE WEST WHICH IS HELPING TO PULL IN SOME
DRIER AIR AS WELL AS KEEP MIXING UP TO PREVENT FORMATION OF FOG.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WIND ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS IS HOLDING MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WILL LIKELY DO SO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.  ALOFT...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO
STORM SYSTEMS THAT ARE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES.  NEXT ONE TO IMPACT US WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND WILL MAKE FAST PROGRESS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

WILL SEE A SIMILAR TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY THAT WE SAW YESTERDAY WITH COOL UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS TO NEAR 60 ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
AS THE STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA APPROACHES THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...SURFACE WIND WILL START TO SWING BACK
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING MOIST UPSLOPE AND
RETURN FLOW.  MODELS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF OVERNIGHT HOURS.  AT THE
SAME TIME...SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT WILL START TO INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE STORM SYSTEM.  BEST TIME FRAME FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME FRIDAY MORNING STARTING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE PRETTY AGGRESSIVE
ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM THE BIG WINNER WITH SOME
HALF-INCH TOTALS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH LOWER IN LIQUID
AMOUNTS.

BIGGEST QUESTION...OTHER THAN WHERE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE...IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO FREEZING AT THE SURFACE THAT
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF A LEVELLAND TO SILVERTON LINE MAY SEE A
MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND WILL PROBABLY BE NOTICEABLE ONLY ON GRASSY
OR ELEVATED SURFACES BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO A TENTH OR TWO. REST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN LIQUID. TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY AS MODEL
BLENDS AND CONSENSUS DROPS AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LINE TO AROUND 30 DEGREES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN WHAT GUIDANCE HAS AND OPTED
TO GO 33-34 DEGREES AS OPPOSED TO 30-32 IN THIS REGION.
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH WILL RESULT IN ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE STORM SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION WILL BE
TRANSLATING OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST NWP TRENDS ARE A
BIT SHARPER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND THUS WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING AS THE WAVE PASSES. IN TURN...MOST GUIDANCE GENERATES AT
LEAST SCATTERED LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME HINTS AT POSSIBLE BANDING THAT COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES. THESE BANDED FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING NARROW LAYERS OF EPV NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO WITH EVEN MINIMAL ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE IN A
FEW POCKETS. GIVEN THIS...WE CAN NOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW BANDED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER...THOUGH THE UPRIGHT INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE RATHER
MEAGER AND WE HAVE LEFT THE THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED GREATER LIFT /VERSUS WHAT WAS PROGGED
24 HOURS AGO/ AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDED ELEMENTS...WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND RAISED POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING WHILE MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL MENTION ACROSS THE WEST. IT APPEARS A CHILLY RAIN WILL BE
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION MODE. THE LATEST PROGGED SOUNDINGS
EVEN SUGGEST THE NORTHWEST ZONES MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE P-TYPE LIQUID...BUT WITH THE THREAT FOR A FEW HEAVIER
BANDS...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE ADDED DYNAMIC COOLING PULL
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE DOWN ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW TO MIX
IN...AS ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. HENCE...A RAIN/SNOW
MIX WAS MAINTAINED OVER THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH IT COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OFF THE CAPROCK...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE CWA BY EVENING.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES/ WILL
RESULT IN A COOL DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY NOT MAKING IT
ABOVE THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH LOCATIONS NEAR
THE TX/NM LINE MAY ECLIPSE THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

BRIEF AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY/S STORM
SYSTEM BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH RACES PAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE DEVOID OF DEEP MOISTURE AND THUS SHOULD BE
A DRY PASSAGE. A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO FORM
ACROSS THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN EDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT WEST TEXAS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A FEW EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MAY TRAVERSE
THE REGION WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THEY WILL HAVE LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK ON...SO OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN CLOUD COVER APPEAR
THE MOST LIKELY BET...THOUGH AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. REGARDLESS...THE PROSPECT OF ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS. MONDAY COULD
BE EVEN WARMER...THOUGH THIS IS IN QUESTION NOW WITH THE LATEST
ECMWF BRINGING A DECENT COLD FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WELL TO THE NORTH/ THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...INSTEAD OF DELAYING IT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. IN EITHER
CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TOWARD AVERAGE BEHIND THIS
FRONT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF
THIS FORECAST...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOVING INTO THE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        49  33  48  23  53 /   0  30  10   0   0
TULIA         48  34  46  26  54 /   0  30  30   0   0
PLAINVIEW     51  35  46  28  54 /   0  30  30   0   0
LEVELLAND     56  34  49  26  55 /   0  30  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       55  36  47  29  55 /   0  30  30   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  37  52  27  56 /   0  40  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    58  36  49  28  55 /   0  40  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  37  45  31  54 /   0  30  30  10   0
SPUR          57  35  45  30  55 /   0  30  30  10   0
ASPERMONT     59  39  47  32  56 /   0  40  40  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23
263
FXUS64 KLUB 180530
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LIFR FOG AND CLOUD DECKS DOMINATES AT KCDS TONIGHT...WHILE IFR
AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS OCCURRED AT KPVW AND KLBB RESPECTIVELY. VFR
FOG HAS INTERMITTENTLY OCCURRED AT KLBB...AND ACCORDING TO
COMPUTER MODELS...WILL FALL TO MVFR FOG AT BOTH KPVW AND KLBB
OVERNIGHT. HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AS WINDS
VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AT
KLBB AND KPVW...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SCOUR OUT...THOUGH A
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WIND AT KCDS WILL CAUSE PREVAILING
DETERIORATED CLOUD DECKS AND FOG. IN FACT...FOG WILL EVENTUALLY
SCOUR AT KCDS BY MID-MORNING...THOUGH BKN-OVC MVFR DECKS WILL
LIKELY LINGER. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...SFC WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSE THE COMMENCEMENT OF CLOUD DECKS AND
VISIBILITY TO DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVING SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WORKING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TO NEAR CHILDRESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP IN BEHIND IT AND WILL DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE FCST AREA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THEN ABOUT HOW FAR THAT
CLEARING WILL GET TONIGHT AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY. CONCERNED THIS SCENARIO PLAYS INTO THE NAM/S BIAS...BUT
ALSO CAN SEE IT AS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE
TRENDED SKY AND TEMP FCST TOWARD A MODEL BLEND ATTM. FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NM EARLY FRIDAY WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE
MORE MOISTURE WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE. A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED BE CARRIED FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN. ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AS GROUND SURFACE
TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW FREEZING. THE TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY AS WILL
OUR PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LOW DUE TO SUCH A SHORT
WINDOW BETWEEN TROFS. THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT COULD BE A FACTOR OF THE WET BIAS OF THE MODEL AND IS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER TROF SHOULD SOON FOLLOW LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THE TIME BEING IS THIS TROF WILL ALSO BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIP DUE
TO A LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY TIME. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW STRATIFORM
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PRODUCT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT BUT HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  50  28  47  23 /   0   0  20  10  10
TULIA         33  48  30  45  26 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     33  51  31  46  28 /  10   0  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     33  56  30  49  26 /   0   0  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       35  55  32  49  29 /   0   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   35  58  33  52  27 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    35  58  33  50  28 /   0   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     36  50  35  47  31 /  10  10  20  20  10
SPUR          37  57  34  48  30 /  10   0  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     40  59  39  49  32 /  10  10  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
150
FXUS64 KLUB 172356
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
556 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT THIS PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS SPREAD TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS
AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE UPDATED THE
WEATHER PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED AT KCDS...AND WILL MORE
OR LESS REMAIN IN THAT STATE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT /COULD INTERMITTENTLY DROP CATEGORIES BUT A BIT HARD TO
SAY HOW LOW THE DECKS AND FOG WILL GO/. AT KLBB AND KPVW...CLOUD
DECKS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CRITERIA...THOUGH COMPUTER MODELS HINT
AT MVFR VIS AND FOG FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW...THUS AIDING TO SCOUR ANY LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE...LEADING TO MVFR CLOUD DECKS AT
KCDS...AND SCT-BKN VFR DECKS AT KLBB AND KPVW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVING SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WORKING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TO NEAR CHILDRESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP IN BEHIND IT AND WILL DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE FCST AREA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THEN ABOUT HOW FAR THAT
CLEARING WILL GET TONIGHT AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY. CONCERNED THIS SCENARIO PLAYS INTO THE NAM/S BIAS...BUT
ALSO CAN SEE IT AS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE
TRENDED SKY AND TEMP FCST TOWARD A MODEL BLEND ATTM. FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NM EARLY FRIDAY WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE
MORE MOISTURE WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE. A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED BE CARRIED FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN. ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AS GROUND SURFACE
TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW FREEZING. THE TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY AS WILL
OUR PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LOW DUE TO SUCH A SHORT
WINDOW BETWEEN TROFS. THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT COULD BE A FACTOR OF THE WET BIAS OF THE MODEL AND IS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER TROF SHOULD SOON FOLLOW LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THE TIME BEING IS THIS TROF WILL ALSO BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIP DUE
TO A LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY TIME. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW STRATIFORM
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PRODUCT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT BUT HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  50  28  47  23 /   0   0  20  10  10
TULIA         33  48  30  45  26 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     33  51  31  46  28 /  10   0  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     33  56  30  49  26 /   0   0  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       35  55  32  49  29 /   0   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   35  58  33  52  27 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    35  58  33  50  28 /   0   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     36  50  35  47  31 /  10  10  20  20  10
SPUR          37  57  34  48  30 /  10   0  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     40  59  39  49  32 /  10  10  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
421
FXUS64 KLUB 172318
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR FOG AND IFR CLOUD DECKS WERE NOTED AT KCDS...AND WILL MORE
OR LESS REMAIN IN THAT STATE THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT /COULD INTERMITTENTLY DROP CATEGORIES BUT A BIT HARD TO
SAY HOW LOW THE DECKS AND FOG WILL GO/. AT KLBB AND KPVW...CLOUD
DECKS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR CRITERIA...THOUGH COMPUTER MODELS HINT
AT MVFR VIS AND FOG FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SFC
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AT BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW...THUS AIDING TO SCOUR ANY LINGERING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE...LEADING TO MVFR CLOUD DECKS AT
KCDS...AND SCT-BKN VFR DECKS AT KLBB AND KPVW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVING SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WORKING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TO NEAR CHILDRESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP IN BEHIND IT AND WILL DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE FCST AREA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THEN ABOUT HOW FAR THAT
CLEARING WILL GET TONIGHT AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY. CONCERNED THIS SCENARIO PLAYS INTO THE NAM/S BIAS...BUT
ALSO CAN SEE IT AS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE
TRENDED SKY AND TEMP FCST TOWARD A MODEL BLEND ATTM. FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NM EARLY FRIDAY WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE
MORE MOISTURE WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE. A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED BE CARRIED FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN. ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AS GROUND SURFACE
TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW FREEZING. THE TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY AS WILL
OUR PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LOW DUE TO SUCH A SHORT
WINDOW BETWEEN TROFS. THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT COULD BE A FACTOR OF THE WET BIAS OF THE MODEL AND IS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER TROF SHOULD SOON FOLLOW LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THE TIME BEING IS THIS TROF WILL ALSO BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIP DUE
TO A LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY TIME. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW STRATIFORM
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PRODUCT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT BUT HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  50  28  47  23 /   0   0  20  10  10
TULIA         33  48  30  45  26 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     33  51  31  46  28 /  10   0  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     33  56  30  49  26 /   0   0  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       35  55  32  49  29 /   0   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   35  58  33  52  27 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    35  58  33  50  28 /   0   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     36  50  35  47  31 /  10  10  20  20  10
SPUR          37  57  34  48  30 /  10   0  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     40  59  39  49  32 /  10  10  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
851
FXUS64 KLUB 172058
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
258 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA EARLIER TODAY NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAVING SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FCST AREA. CLEARING SKIES WORKING SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SHOULD SEE THAT TREND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER...A SFC LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TO NEAR CHILDRESS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS IT DOES A COLD FRONT WILL
SLIP IN BEHIND IT AND WILL DRAW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE FCST AREA. QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THEN ABOUT HOW FAR THAT
CLEARING WILL GET TONIGHT AND HOW AGGRESSIVELY IT MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY. CONCERNED THIS SCENARIO PLAYS INTO THE NAM/S BIAS...BUT
ALSO CAN SEE IT AS A REAL POSSIBILITY. GIVEN LACK OF CONFIDENCE HAVE
TRENDED SKY AND TEMP FCST TOWARD A MODEL BLEND ATTM. FCST AREA
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
MOVES OVERHEAD BY EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE AXIS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL NM EARLY FRIDAY WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOME RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FA. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE
MORE MOISTURE WILL BE READILY AVAILABLE. A MENTION OF SNOW SHOWERS
MIXED WITH RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUED BE CARRIED FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING WHICH MAY RESULT IN A FEW FLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN. ANY
SNOW THAT DOES FALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AS GROUND SURFACE
TEMPS WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO RESPOND TO AMBIENT AIR TEMPS DROPPING TO
BELOW FREEZING. THE TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY AS WILL
OUR PRECIP CHANCES. ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT SHOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIP. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LOW DUE TO SUCH A SHORT
WINDOW BETWEEN TROFS. THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF SATURDAY
NIGHT BUT COULD BE A FACTOR OF THE WET BIAS OF THE MODEL AND IS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

ANOTHER TROF SHOULD SOON FOLLOW LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FOR
THE TIME BEING IS THIS TROF WILL ALSO BE DRY IN TERMS OF PRECIP DUE
TO A LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY TIME. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW STRATIFORM
PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT AS A PRODUCT OF FRONTOGENETIC LIFT BUT HAS
BEEN RELATIVELY INCONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  50  28  47  23 /   0   0  20  10  10
TULIA         33  48  30  45  26 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     33  51  31  46  28 /  10   0  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     33  56  30  49  26 /   0   0  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       35  55  32  49  29 /   0   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   35  58  33  52  27 /   0   0  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    35  58  33  50  28 /   0   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     36  50  35  47  31 /  10  10  20  20  10
SPUR          37  57  34  48  30 /  10   0  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     40  59  39  49  32 /  10  10  30  30  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
772
FXUS64 KLUB 171736
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
LAST BATCH OF SHRA AND TS EXITING THE SERN PANHANDLE AND SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF KCDS BY 19Z.

OBSERVING CLEARING OF MVFR CIGS TO THE SW OF KLBB. THIS TREND
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTN WITH LIFTING TO VFR CIGS AT KLBB
AND KPVW LATE THIS AFTN AND WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE WEST.
SITUATION AT KCDS MORE DIFFICULT AS A SFC LOW PROGGED TO DEVELOP
IN THE VCNTY WITH WINDS MORE LIKELY TO BACK THAN VEER WHICH WOULD
HAVE THE EFFECT OF KEEPING LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. 12Z WRF-NAM
WANTING TO LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO IFR WITH A WEAK FRONT SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. THIS MAY AGAIN BE A CASE OF PLAYING INTO THAT
MODEL/S BIAS. WILL KEEP CIGS MVFR THERE AND LET LATER SHIFTS
REEVALUATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...

A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND HAS NOW MOVED EASTWARD INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A
COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AS
WELL AS A PLUME OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE OF
200-400 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PEA SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS IS THE
RESULT OF VERY LOW MELTING LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 21Z...BUT QUICKLY TAPER
THEM BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION BY THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS IS VFR BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
VIRGA OR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AT OR
UNDER 12 KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AMPLE LOW...MID...AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COMING IN FROM
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING AS A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 3KFT.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET
THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF BAJA.  THIS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  WEAK AND BROAD LIFT UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ABOVE A DEEP DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700HPA.  THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND.

UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  COLUMN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO FULLY MOISTEN TO ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN TAPER IT
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF
THUNDER BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS MEAGER
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON
FOR THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
MAY BREAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO HELP BOOST TEMPS
GENERALLY IN TO THE MID 50S WITH SOME NEAR 60 READINGS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
HELP TO DROP MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONG
ENOUGH ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE LATEST ITERATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF SOME
FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THIS QUICK WAVE TRAIN...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR ANY GIVEN DISTURBANCE TO PULL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS TO BRING MORE THAN BRIEF AND RELATIVELY MEAGER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO WEST TEXAS.

THE MOST NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A PORTION OF THIS ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING MORE EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WANTING PRECIPITATION...THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS TAKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH...FROM THE BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL STILL RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS WILL BE WASTED AS IT WILL
BE SATURATING THE TROPOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. BY THE TIME THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIPITATION THE LIFT WILL
LIKELY BE SUBSIDING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NWP HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF ON QPF LOCALLY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW
EXPECTED TO ELUDE US TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. STILL...WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS WE HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY TO BRING A RISK OF A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIP...THOUGH THE ODDS OF ANY PRECIP AT ALL NOW APPEAR TO
BE QUITE LOW. ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS NOW PROJECTED TO PASS AS AN OPEN TROUGH LATE
THIS WEEKEND /SO MUCH FOR A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED IN THE
GUIDANCE A FEW DAYS AGO/...THOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A VALID TREND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE SHORT ON MOISTURE...THOUGH THE DEEPER ECMWF DOES GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF AS IT PASSES. THIS APPEARS A BIT OPTIMISTIC /THOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION/...AND AT THIS POINT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE DAY 7 FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY MILD WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SUPERBLEND
OUTPUT. IT APPEAR MONDAY WILL THEN BE THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. WE
HAVE EDGE FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...THOUGH
DEPENDING HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SOME SPOTS COULD PUSH TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK. A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL FOLLOW MONDAY
NIGHT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY SUGGEST A BUILDING RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE
TO COME TO FRUITION WEST TEXAS COULD RECEIVE THE GIFT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WITH SOURCES NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE /NEAR THE NORTH
POLE?/ SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  30  51  29  48 /  10   0  10  20  10
TULIA         49  33  49  30  47 /  20   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     51  33  52  31  48 /  10   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     57  33  57  31  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       54  35  57  32  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   59  35  59  34  53 /  10   0  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    58  35  58  33  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     47  36  53  35  49 /  70  10  10  20  20
SPUR          52  37  59  34  50 /  30  10  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     52  40  62  39  50 /  30  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/16
121
FXUS64 KLUB 171640
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1040 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...

A ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND HAS NOW MOVED EASTWARD INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A
COMBINATION OF UPPER FORCING FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...AS
WELL AS A PLUME OF MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO THE TUNE OF
200-400 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND PEA SIZED HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS IS THE
RESULT OF VERY LOW MELTING LEVELS. HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 21Z...BUT QUICKLY TAPER
THEM BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE REGION BY THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS IS VFR BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
VIRGA OR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AT OR
UNDER 12 KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AMPLE LOW...MID...AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COMING IN FROM
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING AS A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 3KFT.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET
THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF BAJA.  THIS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  WEAK AND BROAD LIFT UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ABOVE A DEEP DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700HPA.  THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND.

UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  COLUMN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO FULLY MOISTEN TO ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN TAPER IT
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF
THUNDER BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS MEAGER
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON
FOR THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
MAY BREAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO HELP BOOST TEMPS
GENERALLY IN TO THE MID 50S WITH SOME NEAR 60 READINGS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
HELP TO DROP MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONG
ENOUGH ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE LATEST ITERATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF SOME
FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THIS QUICK WAVE TRAIN...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR ANY GIVEN DISTURBANCE TO PULL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS TO BRING MORE THAN BRIEF AND RELATIVELY MEAGER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO WEST TEXAS.

THE MOST NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A PORTION OF THIS ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING MORE EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WANTING PRECIPITATION...THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS TAKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH...FROM THE BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL STILL RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS WILL BE WASTED AS IT WILL
BE SATURATING THE TROPOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. BY THE TIME THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIPITATION THE LIFT WILL
LIKELY BE SUBSIDING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NWP HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF ON QPF LOCALLY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW
EXPECTED TO ELUDE US TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. STILL...WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS WE HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY TO BRING A RISK OF A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIP...THOUGH THE ODDS OF ANY PRECIP AT ALL NOW APPEAR TO
BE QUITE LOW. ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS NOW PROJECTED TO PASS AS AN OPEN TROUGH LATE
THIS WEEKEND /SO MUCH FOR A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED IN THE
GUIDANCE A FEW DAYS AGO/...THOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A VALID TREND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE SHORT ON MOISTURE...THOUGH THE DEEPER ECMWF DOES GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF AS IT PASSES. THIS APPEARS A BIT OPTIMISTIC /THOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION/...AND AT THIS POINT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE DAY 7 FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY MILD WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SUPERBLEND
OUTPUT. IT APPEAR MONDAY WILL THEN BE THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. WE
HAVE EDGE FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...THOUGH
DEPENDING HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SOME SPOTS COULD PUSH TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK. A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL FOLLOW MONDAY
NIGHT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY SUGGEST A BUILDING RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE
TO COME TO FRUITION WEST TEXAS COULD RECEIVE THE GIFT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WITH SOURCES NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE /NEAR THE NORTH
POLE?/ SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  30  51  29  48 /  10   0  10  20  10
TULIA         49  33  49  30  47 /  20   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     51  33  52  31  48 /  10   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     57  33  57  31  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       54  35  57  32  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   59  35  59  34  53 /  10   0  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    58  35  58  33  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     47  36  53  35  49 /  70  10  10  20  20
SPUR          52  37  59  34  50 /  30  10  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     52  40  62  39  50 /  30  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99
816
FXUS64 KLUB 171136 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
536 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KPVW TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS IS VFR BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
VIRGA OR LIGHT RAINSHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KCDS THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE TAF BEFORE ENDING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS AT OR
UNDER 12 KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AMPLE LOW...MID...AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COMING IN FROM
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING AS A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 3KFT.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET
THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF BAJA.  THIS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  WEAK AND BROAD LIFT UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ABOVE A DEEP DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700HPA.  THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND.

UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  COLUMN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO FULLY MOISTEN TO ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN TAPER IT
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF
THUNDER BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS MEAGER
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON
FOR THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
MAY BREAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO HELP BOOST TEMPS
GENERALLY IN TO THE MID 50S WITH SOME NEAR 60 READINGS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
HELP TO DROP MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONG
ENOUGH ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE LATEST ITERATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF SOME
FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THIS QUICK WAVE TRAIN...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR ANY GIVEN DISTURBANCE TO PULL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS TO BRING MORE THAN BRIEF AND RELATIVELY MEAGER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO WEST TEXAS.

THE MOST NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A PORTION OF THIS ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING MORE EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WANTING PRECIPITATION...THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS TAKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH...FROM THE BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL STILL RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS WILL BE WASTED AS IT WILL
BE SATURATING THE TROPOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. BY THE TIME THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIPITATION THE LIFT WILL
LIKELY BE SUBSIDING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NWP HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF ON QPF LOCALLY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW
EXPECTED TO ELUDE US TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. STILL...WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS WE HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY TO BRING A RISK OF A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIP...THOUGH THE ODDS OF ANY PRECIP AT ALL NOW APPEAR TO
BE QUITE LOW. ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS NOW PROJECTED TO PASS AS AN OPEN TROUGH LATE
THIS WEEKEND /SO MUCH FOR A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED IN THE
GUIDANCE A FEW DAYS AGO/...THOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A VALID TREND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE SHORT ON MOISTURE...THOUGH THE DEEPER ECMWF DOES GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF AS IT PASSES. THIS APPEARS A BIT OPTIMISTIC /THOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION/...AND AT THIS POINT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE DAY 7 FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY MILD WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SUPERBLEND
OUTPUT. IT APPEAR MONDAY WILL THEN BE THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. WE
HAVE EDGE FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...THOUGH
DEPENDING HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SOME SPOTS COULD PUSH TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK. A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL FOLLOW MONDAY
NIGHT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY SUGGEST A BUILDING RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE
TO COME TO FRUITION WEST TEXAS COULD RECEIVE THE GIFT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WITH SOURCES NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE /NEAR THE NORTH
POLE?/ SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  30  51  29  48 /  10   0  10  20  10
TULIA         49  33  49  30  47 /  10   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     51  33  52  31  48 /  10   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     57  33  57  31  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       54  35  57  32  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   59  35  59  34  53 /  10   0  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    58  35  58  33  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     47  36  53  35  49 /  20  10  10  20  20
SPUR          52  37  59  34  50 /  20  10  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     52  40  62  39  50 /  20  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
118
FXUS64 KLUB 170954
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AMPLE LOW...MID...AND HIGH CLOUD COVER COMING IN FROM
DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS.  LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING AS A FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED AND IS HELPING TO TRANSPORT
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 3KFT.  MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET
THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF BAJA.  THIS SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.  WEAK AND BROAD LIFT UNDER THE
SUBTROPICAL JET HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ABOVE A DEEP DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 700HPA.  THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN THROUGH THE
DAY WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REACH
THE GROUND.

UNFORTUNATELY THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  COLUMN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO FULLY MOISTEN TO ALLOW LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO REACH THE GROUND BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE IS EAST OF
THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING AND THEN TAPER IT
DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED CLAP OF
THUNDER BUT MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS MEAGER
INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AS INDICATED BY ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AT OR UNDER 500 J/KG AND NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH IS PART OF THE REASON
FOR THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...AND THIS WILL ALSO HELP
TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
MAY BREAK ENOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO HELP BOOST TEMPS
GENERALLY IN TO THE MID 50S WITH SOME NEAR 60 READINGS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.

SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE
BEHIND A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
HELP TO DROP MIN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY TO NEAR OR JUST UNDER
FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONG
ENOUGH ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S BY THURSDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LATEST ITERATION OF SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE PASSAGE OF SOME
FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVERY COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
UNFORTUNATELY...WITH THIS QUICK WAVE TRAIN...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR ANY GIVEN DISTURBANCE TO PULL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS TO BRING MORE THAN BRIEF AND RELATIVELY MEAGER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO WEST TEXAS.

THE MOST NOTABLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE
EXTENDED IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A PORTION OF THIS ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING MORE EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE WANTING PRECIPITATION...THE MOST RECENT
TRENDS TAKE THE BULK OF THE ENERGY/LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO OUR
SOUTH...FROM THE BIG BEND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL STILL RECEIVE A GLANCING SHOT OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT...BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS WILL BE WASTED AS IT WILL
BE SATURATING THE TROPOSPHERE FROM THE TOP DOWN. BY THE TIME THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR PRECIPITATION THE LIFT WILL
LIKELY BE SUBSIDING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE NWP HAS REALLY BACKED
OFF ON QPF LOCALLY...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOW
EXPECTED TO ELUDE US TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. STILL...WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE TRENDS WE HAVE REDUCED POPS DOWN INTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE
CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD WORK INTO
THE NORTHWEST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY TO BRING A RISK OF A LITTLE
WINTRY PRECIP...THOUGH THE ODDS OF ANY PRECIP AT ALL NOW APPEAR TO
BE QUITE LOW. ANY PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE IS NOW PROJECTED TO PASS AS AN OPEN TROUGH LATE
THIS WEEKEND /SO MUCH FOR A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED IN THE
GUIDANCE A FEW DAYS AGO/...THOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE APPEAR
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS DROPPED
POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A VALID TREND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE SHORT ON MOISTURE...THOUGH THE DEEPER ECMWF DOES GENERATE A
LITTLE LIGHT QPF AS IT PASSES. THIS APPEARS A BIT OPTIMISTIC /THOUGH
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION/...AND AT THIS POINT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS FOR THE DAY 7 FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING READINGS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK. CLEARING SKIES AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE A PLEASANTLY MILD WEEKEND AND WE HAVE
TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE SUPERBLEND
OUTPUT. IT APPEAR MONDAY WILL THEN BE THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. WE
HAVE EDGE FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S...THOUGH
DEPENDING HOW THINGS PLAY OUT SOME SPOTS COULD PUSH TOWARD THE 70
DEGREE MARK. A COLD FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL FOLLOW MONDAY
NIGHT...KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE. BEYOND
THAT...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF CURRENTLY SUGGEST A BUILDING RIDGE
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE
TO COME TO FRUITION WEST TEXAS COULD RECEIVE THE GIFT OF MUCH
COLDER AIR WITH SOURCES NORTH OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE /NEAR THE NORTH
POLE?/ SOMETIME AROUND CHRISTMAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  30  51  29  48 /  10   0  10  20  10
TULIA         49  33  49  30  47 /  10   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     51  33  52  31  48 /  10   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     57  33  57  31  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       54  35  57  32  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   59  35  59  34  53 /  10   0  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    58  35  58  33  51 /  10   0  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     47  36  53  35  49 /  20  10  10  20  20
SPUR          52  37  59  34  50 /  20  10  10  30  20
ASPERMONT     52  40  62  39  50 /  20  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23
884
FXUS64 KLUB 170557
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER IN CRITICAL MID
LAYER OF ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON SHOWER
PROSPECTS SPREADING INTO KLBB AND KPVW JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE SHOWER MENTION FOR THIS VERSION OF
THE TAF. FOR KCDS...SOLUTIONS NOT IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
SHOWER PROSPECTS THERE AS WELL FOR LATER ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
BETTER CHANCE FOR BEING NEARBY. STILL...WITHHOLDING SHOWERS FROM
KCDS AS WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO TAKE HOLD FOR BOTH
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY IN THE MORNING AND NOT LET GO UNTIL EARLY OR
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR MORE OF AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR KCDS...BUT BETTER
IF SHOWERS DO COME TOGETHER AFTER ALL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDING NORTH A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
LEADING TO A DECK NEAR 4000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND AT KLBB AND SOON
TO SPREAD TO KPVW. SATELLITE AND RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BREAK SKIRTING CLOSE TO BOTH KLBB AND KPVW BY MID EVENING BUT
UNCLEAR IF CEILING WILL BREAK...CHOSE TO KEEP A CONSTANT LAYER FOR
NOW. THIS LAYER SHOULD SPREAD INTO KCDS AS WELL BY MID EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE CROSSING NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND NOW FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH RAP AND
WRF/NAM NOW DEPICT MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING OF CLOUD
DECKS FOR KPVW AND KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS
WELL AS SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEARBY. WE WILL WATCH SOLUTION TRENDS
ON THIS AND DECIDE BY THE 06Z TAF IF SHOWERS AND A CLOUD DECK
LOWERING TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF MVFR LEVELS WORTHY TO INCLUDE FOR
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH...
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CALI/BAJA CALI COAST AS OF EARLY AFTN...TO
SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY END UP OCCURRING
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AS A BATCH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LITTLE HINT
ATTM OF DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO HOLD
BACK ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EJECTING EWD THURSDAY. BEFORE THEN AN INITIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE. WRF-NAM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS CLOSER
TO 30 PCT NOT COMPLETELY UNFOUNDED...BUT APPEARS TO PLAY INTO THE
MODEL BIAS OF OVERPRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALSO...LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
DISAPPOINTMENTS RELATIVE TO THE MODEL PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT. THAT
SAID...PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A LESSER CONCERN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD
NIGHT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS LOOKING GOOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A BIT
TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
TROUGH. SOME SORT OF BLEND BETWEEN MET AND MAV MOS NUMBERS WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER END IS REASONABLE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
A NEG TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE FA EARLY THURSDAY
WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY PLACED JUST TO OUR EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE QUICKLY KICKED OUT OF THE AREA BY AN APPROACHING TROF FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LESS AMPLIFIED TROF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM AND CMC WHICH HAVE A DEEPER AND
SHARPER TROF. MINUS THE CMC...THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE TROF BETTER IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH MOISTURE RETURN/AVAILABILITY. THE GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER HAVING A DRY FORECAST DESPITE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
FOR FRIDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIP TYPE.
MOST OF THE FA SHOULD SEE LIQUID PRECIP. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AS THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING
BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED
AS SOIL TEMPS WOULD HAVE NO TIME TO RESPOND AND WOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER
TROF...THIS ONE DEEPER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AS LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE
TO THE POS TILT OF THE TROF. THE TROF WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  53  30  53  29 /  10  10   0  10  30
TULIA         32  48  33  51  31 /  10  10   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     32  50  33  54  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     35  57  33  58  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LUBBOCK       35  55  35  58  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
DENVER CITY   36  58  35  60  35 /  10  10   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    36  57  35  59  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     33  47  36  53  36 /  10  20  10  10  30
SPUR          35  51  37  59  35 /  10  20  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     38  52  39  62  38 /  10  20  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
425
FXUS64 KLUB 170557
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1157 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER IN CRITICAL MID
LAYER OF ATMOSPHERE...AND THUS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON SHOWER
PROSPECTS SPREADING INTO KLBB AND KPVW JUST AFTER DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL NOT INCLUDE SHOWER MENTION FOR THIS VERSION OF
THE TAF. FOR KCDS...SOLUTIONS NOT IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
SHOWER PROSPECTS THERE AS WELL FOR LATER ON WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH
BETTER CHANCE FOR BEING NEARBY. STILL...WITHHOLDING SHOWERS FROM
KCDS AS WELL. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO TAKE HOLD FOR BOTH
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY IN THE MORNING AND NOT LET GO UNTIL EARLY OR
MID AFTERNOON. MVFR MORE OF AN OUTSIDE RISK FOR KCDS...BUT BETTER
IF SHOWERS DO COME TOGETHER AFTER ALL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 524 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDING NORTH A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
LEADING TO A DECK NEAR 4000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND AT KLBB AND SOON
TO SPREAD TO KPVW. SATELLITE AND RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BREAK SKIRTING CLOSE TO BOTH KLBB AND KPVW BY MID EVENING BUT
UNCLEAR IF CEILING WILL BREAK...CHOSE TO KEEP A CONSTANT LAYER FOR
NOW. THIS LAYER SHOULD SPREAD INTO KCDS AS WELL BY MID EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE CROSSING NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND NOW FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH RAP AND
WRF/NAM NOW DEPICT MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING OF CLOUD
DECKS FOR KPVW AND KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS
WELL AS SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEARBY. WE WILL WATCH SOLUTION TRENDS
ON THIS AND DECIDE BY THE 06Z TAF IF SHOWERS AND A CLOUD DECK
LOWERING TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF MVFR LEVELS WORTHY TO INCLUDE FOR
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH...
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CALI/BAJA CALI COAST AS OF EARLY AFTN...TO
SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY END UP OCCURRING
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AS A BATCH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LITTLE HINT
ATTM OF DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO HOLD
BACK ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EJECTING EWD THURSDAY. BEFORE THEN AN INITIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE. WRF-NAM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS CLOSER
TO 30 PCT NOT COMPLETELY UNFOUNDED...BUT APPEARS TO PLAY INTO THE
MODEL BIAS OF OVERPRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALSO...LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
DISAPPOINTMENTS RELATIVE TO THE MODEL PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT. THAT
SAID...PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A LESSER CONCERN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD
NIGHT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS LOOKING GOOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A BIT
TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
TROUGH. SOME SORT OF BLEND BETWEEN MET AND MAV MOS NUMBERS WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER END IS REASONABLE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
A NEG TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE FA EARLY THURSDAY
WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY PLACED JUST TO OUR EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE QUICKLY KICKED OUT OF THE AREA BY AN APPROACHING TROF FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LESS AMPLIFIED TROF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM AND CMC WHICH HAVE A DEEPER AND
SHARPER TROF. MINUS THE CMC...THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE TROF BETTER IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH MOISTURE RETURN/AVAILABILITY. THE GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER HAVING A DRY FORECAST DESPITE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
FOR FRIDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIP TYPE.
MOST OF THE FA SHOULD SEE LIQUID PRECIP. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AS THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING
BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED
AS SOIL TEMPS WOULD HAVE NO TIME TO RESPOND AND WOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER
TROF...THIS ONE DEEPER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AS LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE
TO THE POS TILT OF THE TROF. THE TROF WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  53  30  53  29 /  10  10   0  10  30
TULIA         32  48  33  51  31 /  10  10   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     32  50  33  54  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     35  57  33  58  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LUBBOCK       35  55  35  58  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
DENVER CITY   36  58  35  60  35 /  10  10   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    36  57  35  59  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     33  47  36  53  36 /  10  20  10  10  30
SPUR          35  51  37  59  35 /  10  20  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     38  52  39  62  38 /  10  20  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
627
FXUS64 KLUB 162324
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
524 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPANDING NORTH A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
LEADING TO A DECK NEAR 4000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND AT KLBB AND SOON
TO SPREAD TO KPVW. SATELLITE AND RAP SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THERE MAY
BE A BREAK SKIRTING CLOSE TO BOTH KLBB AND KPVW BY MID EVENING BUT
UNCLEAR IF CEILING WILL BREAK...CHOSE TO KEEP A CONSTANT LAYER FOR
NOW. THIS LAYER SHOULD SPREAD INTO KCDS AS WELL BY MID EVENING.
SATELLITE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED IMPULSE CROSSING NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME AND NOW FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH RAP AND
WRF/NAM NOW DEPICT MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOWERING OF CLOUD
DECKS FOR KPVW AND KLBB NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...AS
WELL AS SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEARBY. WE WILL WATCH SOLUTION TRENDS
ON THIS AND DECIDE BY THE 06Z TAF IF SHOWERS AND A CLOUD DECK
LOWERING TO NEAR THE BOTTOM OF MVFR LEVELS WORTHY TO INCLUDE FOR
THE NEXT ISSUANCE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH...
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CALI/BAJA CALI COAST AS OF EARLY AFTN...TO
SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY END UP OCCURRING
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AS A BATCH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LITTLE HINT
ATTM OF DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO HOLD
BACK ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EJECTING EWD THURSDAY. BEFORE THEN AN INITIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE. WRF-NAM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS CLOSER
TO 30 PCT NOT COMPLETELY UNFOUNDED...BUT APPEARS TO PLAY INTO THE
MODEL BIAS OF OVERPRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALSO...LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
DISAPPOINTMENTS RELATIVE TO THE MODEL PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT. THAT
SAID...PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A LESSER CONCERN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD
NIGHT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS LOOKING GOOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A BIT
TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
TROUGH. SOME SORT OF BLEND BETWEEN MET AND MAV MOS NUMBERS WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER END IS REASONABLE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
A NEG TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE FA EARLY THURSDAY
WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY PLACED JUST TO OUR EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE QUICKLY KICKED OUT OF THE AREA BY AN APPROACHING TROF FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LESS AMPLIFIED TROF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM AND CMC WHICH HAVE A DEEPER AND
SHARPER TROF. MINUS THE CMC...THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE TROF BETTER IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH MOISTURE RETURN/AVAILABILITY. THE GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER HAVING A DRY FORECAST DESPITE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
FOR FRIDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIP TYPE.
MOST OF THE FA SHOULD SEE LIQUID PRECIP. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AS THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING
BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED
AS SOIL TEMPS WOULD HAVE NO TIME TO RESPOND AND WOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER
TROF...THIS ONE DEEPER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AS LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE
TO THE POS TILT OF THE TROF. THE TROF WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  53  30  53  29 /  10  10   0  10  30
TULIA         32  48  33  51  31 /  10  10   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     32  50  33  54  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     35  57  33  58  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LUBBOCK       35  55  35  58  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
DENVER CITY   36  58  35  60  35 /  10  10   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    36  57  35  59  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     33  47  36  53  36 /  10  20  10  10  30
SPUR          35  51  37  59  35 /  10  20  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     38  52  39  62  38 /  10  20  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
651
FXUS64 KLUB 162100
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH...
LOCATED JUST OFF THE SRN CALI/BAJA CALI COAST AS OF EARLY AFTN...TO
SPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE FCST OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY END UP OCCURRING
MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED AS A BATCH LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD THROUGH THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH LITTLE HINT
ATTM OF DISSIPATING THIS AFTN. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO HOLD
BACK ACROSS THE WRN CONUS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DAMPENING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND EJECTING EWD THURSDAY. BEFORE THEN AN INITIAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND AS
THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE. WRF-NAM AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS GUIDANCE WITH POPS CLOSER
TO 30 PCT NOT COMPLETELY UNFOUDNED...BUT APPEARS TO PLAY INTO THE
MODEL BIAS OF OVERPRODUCING LIGHT PRECIP WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. ALSO...LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN
DISAPPOINTMENTS RELATIVE TO THE MODEL PROGS AND MOS OUTPUT. THAT
SAID...PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS FINE ATTM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPS A LESSER CONCERN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD
NIGHT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE MOS LOOKING GOOD. HIGHS WEDNESDAY A BIT
TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND MUCH ON HOW QUICKLY SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE
TROUGH. SOME SORT OF BLEND BETWEEN MET AND MAV MOS NUMBERS WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER END IS REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A NEG TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE FA EARLY THURSDAY
WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY PLACED JUST TO OUR EAST. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
BE QUICKLY KICKED OUT OF THE AREA BY AN APPROACHING TROF FROM THE
WEST. OVERALL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A LESS AMPLIFIED TROF BY
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM AND CMC WHICH HAVE A DEEPER AND
SHARPER TROF. MINUS THE CMC...THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
HANDLING THE TROF BETTER IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE BIGGER
DIFFERENCES ARE WITH MOISTURE RETURN/AVAILABILITY. THE GFS IS
SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER HAVING A DRY FORECAST DESPITE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. FOR NOW POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN
FOR FRIDAY AS LIFT AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP. ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRECIP TYPE.
MOST OF THE FA SHOULD SEE LIQUID PRECIP. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT WOULD
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW TEMPS
ALOFT COOLING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AS THE AXIS OF THE TROF MOVES
OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO BELOW FREEZING
BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED
AS SOIL TEMPS WOULD HAVE NO TIME TO RESPOND AND WOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THIS TROF WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST BY SATURDAY WHILE ANOTHER
TROF...THIS ONE DEEPER THAN ITS PREDECESSOR...MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM
BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE LIGHT AS LIFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK DUE
TO THE POS TILT OF THE TROF. THE TROF WILL GIVE WAY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
AVERAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  53  30  53  29 /  10  10   0  10  30
TULIA         32  48  33  51  31 /  10  10   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     32  50  33  54  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     35  57  33  58  32 /  10  10   0  10  30
LUBBOCK       35  55  35  58  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
DENVER CITY   36  58  35  60  35 /  10  10   0  10  30
BROWNFIELD    36  57  35  59  34 /  10  10   0  10  30
CHILDRESS     33  47  36  53  36 /  10  20  10  10  30
SPUR          35  51  37  59  35 /  10  20  10  10  40
ASPERMONT     38  52  39  62  38 /  10  20  10  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
649
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1122 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NWD FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN OVERNIGHT. CIGS LIKELY TO START IN THE MVFR CATEGORY. THE
NAM SEEMS TO BE PLAYING TO ITS BIASES WITH OVERSATURATION IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND WILL THUS STAY AWAY FROM LOWER RESTRICTIONS ATTM.
COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD 12Z MAINLY OFF THE
CAPROCK...BUT OF TOO LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE TO INSERT INTO THE KCDS
TAF ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
06 UTC. A EXPANDING LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS AT KLBB FIRST AND THEN AT KPVW SHORTLY AFTER...WITH
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT KCDS TO LEAVE THEM VFR FOR NOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
DEEP TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WE EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
TODAY TO HELP KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCELERATE AND
BEGIN TO ADVECT ELEVATED MOISTURE...AROUND 850-750 MB...NORTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FIRST TO OUR
SOUTH...THEN SPREADING QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES LIKELY BY 12 UTC. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
POPS JUST BELOW MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RESPECTIVE WAVES HAVE TRENDED
LOWER IN THE MOST RECENT NWP.

INITIALLY...A LEAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST. GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY YIELD WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE WAA REGIME....FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL RESIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS...PROSPECTS FOR
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TOO GOOD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE BULK OF THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FURTHER SOUTH MEANING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY SKIRT THE FA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. EVEN SO...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT...COUPLED WITH ADDED FORCING OVER A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT BACKDOORING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO KEEP AT LEAST THE
PROSPECTS OF LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...WE HAVE DECREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK...WHILE BOOSTING THEM
MODESTLY IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
EVEN ADVECT IN TO BRING THE RISK OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY AMOUNTS WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL.

LASTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY
LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONALLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
NWP HAVE ADVERTISED A POTENT CLOSED LOW TAKING UP RESIDENCE
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST OF THE REGION...THOUGH TODAY THE GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WOULD HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WITH COORDINATION OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL SHOWER
MENTION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A DEEPER/SLOWER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...THESE POPS MAY NEED SHIFTED EARLIER OR REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH NO BIG SHOT OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY ON THE
HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  28  55  31  53 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         50  30  52  34  51 /   0  10  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     50  32  52  34  53 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     51  32  58  33  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  35  56  35  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  34  60  35  59 /   0  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    51  35  58  35  58 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     50  33  49  36  52 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          51  35  53  38  57 /   0  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  37  54  39  60 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
373
FXUS64 KLUB 161144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT
06 UTC. A EXPANDING LOW STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR
CEILINGS AT KLBB FIRST AND THEN AT KPVW SHORTLY AFTER...WITH
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AT KCDS TO LEAVE THEM VFR FOR NOW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
DEEP TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WE EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
TODAY TO HELP KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCELERATE AND
BEGIN TO ADVECT ELEVATED MOISTURE...AROUND 850-750 MB...NORTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FIRST TO OUR
SOUTH...THEN SPREADING QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES LIKELY BY 12 UTC. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
POPS JUST BELOW MENTION FOR NOW.

LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RESPECTIVE WAVES HAVE TRENDED
LOWER IN THE MOST RECENT NWP.

INITIALLY...A LEAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST. GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY YIELD WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE WAA REGIME....FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL RESIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS...PROSPECTS FOR
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TOO GOOD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE BULK OF THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FURTHER SOUTH MEANING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY SKIRT THE FA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. EVEN SO...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT...COUPLED WITH ADDED FORCING OVER A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT BACKDOORING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO KEEP AT LEAST THE
PROSPECTS OF LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...WE HAVE DECREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK...WHILE BOOSTING THEM
MODESTLY IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
EVEN ADVECT IN TO BRING THE RISK OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY AMOUNTS WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL.

LASTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY
LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONALLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
NWP HAVE ADVERTISED A POTENT CLOSED LOW TAKING UP RESIDENCE
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST OF THE REGION...THOUGH TODAY THE GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WOULD HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WITH COORDINATION OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL SHOWER
MENTION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A DEEPER/SLOWER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...THESE POPS MAY NEED SHIFTED EARLIER OR REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH NO BIG SHOT OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY ON THE
HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  28  55  31  53 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         50  30  52  34  51 /   0  10  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     50  32  52  34  53 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     51  32  58  33  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  35  56  36  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  34  60  35  59 /   0  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    51  35  58  35  58 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     50  33  49  36  52 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          51  35  53  38  57 /   0  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  37  54  39  60 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
284
FXUS64 KLUB 160953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A
DEEP TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN
AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SWLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WAS ALREADY RESULTING IN INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. WE EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
TODAY TO HELP KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER TO
WEST TEXAS TONIGHT...THE SRLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ACCELERATE AND
BEGIN TO ADVECT ELEVATED MOISTURE...AROUND 850-750 MB...NORTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING FIRST TO OUR
SOUTH...THEN SPREADING QUICKLY NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT...WITH OVERCAST SKIES LIKELY BY 12 UTC. IT IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION THAT ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
POPS JUST BELOW MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RESPECTIVE WAVES HAVE TRENDED
LOWER IN THE MOST RECENT NWP.

INITIALLY...A LEAD LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
OVER ON WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST. GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY YIELD WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS HAS BEEN ALLUDED TO IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS DEVELOP
IN THE WAA REGIME....FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THOUGH
THE DEEPER MOISTURE/LIFT WILL RESIDE FURTHER TO THE EAST AND BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS...PROSPECTS FOR
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TOO GOOD ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE.

A RELATIVE LULL WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE BULK OF THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FURTHER SOUTH MEANING THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY SKIRT THE FA TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. EVEN SO...THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT...COUPLED WITH ADDED FORCING OVER A SHALLOW COLD
FRONT BACKDOORING THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS...TO KEEP AT LEAST THE
PROSPECTS OF LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EVEN SO...WE HAVE DECREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY OVER MUCH OF THE CAPROCK...WHILE BOOSTING THEM
MODESTLY IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD
EVEN ADVECT IN TO BRING THE RISK OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS ANY AMOUNTS WOULD
BE VERY LIGHT IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL.

LASTLY...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION BY
LATE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. OCCASIONALLY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS
NWP HAVE ADVERTISED A POTENT CLOSED LOW TAKING UP RESIDENCE
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR WEST OF THE REGION...THOUGH TODAY THE GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF ON THIS. OBVIOUSLY...THIS WOULD HAVE BIG IMPLICATIONS ON
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR NOW...WITH COORDINATION OF
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL SHOWER
MENTION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WHEN A DEEPER/SLOWER TROUGH COULD
POSSIBLY BRING A SHOT OF SOME PRECIP. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...THESE POPS MAY NEED SHIFTED EARLIER OR REMOVED ALTOGETHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH NO BIG SHOT OF COLD AIR CURRENTLY ON THE
HORIZON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  28  55  31  53 /   0   0  10   0  10
TULIA         50  30  52  34  51 /   0  10  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     50  32  52  34  53 /   0  10  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     51  32  58  33  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  35  56  35  57 /   0  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   51  34  60  35  59 /   0  10  10   0  10
BROWNFIELD    51  35  58  35  58 /   0  10  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     50  33  49  36  52 /   0  10  20  10  10
SPUR          51  35  53  38  57 /   0  10  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  37  54  39  60 /   0  10  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
909
FXUS64 KLUB 160549
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
BASED ON TRENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN AT A BIT MORE RAPID PACE THAN FORECAST...HAVE LOWERED
MINIMUMS A FEW DEGREES. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A BRIEF
RISE THOUGH LOW 20S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 18 HOURS WITH SOME RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS COMING AFTER
00Z WEDNESDAY AS LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGIN STREAMING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE MAY PLAY A BIT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK WITH THE WINDS DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER FAIRLY QUICKLY. A
COOLER DAY SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY WITH INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE RIDGE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HINDERING INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION. WE CHOSE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE
BIAS METHODS...WHICH ALSO RESEMBLED PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A LLJ WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FA BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. SOME LIFT
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS THE LIFT APPEARS IT
WILL BE SHALLOW AND WEAK MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED AND
REPLACED WITH ISO SPRINKLES. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW QPF
DURING THIS TIME AND IS LIGHT AT BEST. THE NAM AT TIMES WILL SHOW
SOME QPF WHEN A LAYER IS SATURATED WHEN THE END RESULT IS ONLY
STRATUS. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. A MAGIC EIGHT
BALL BECOMES HANDY AS WE GET INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS STILL
PROGGED TO PUSH THIS WAY BY LATE WEEK...BUT MODELS LARGE AND SMALL
ALIKE DISAGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION AND SPEED OF THE TROF. 12Z RUNS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...MINUS THE CMC...HAVE PRODUCED A DRY FORECAST
FOR LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER BY FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THAN THE GFS BUT DIFFERS GREATLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
00Z RUN. THE CMC HAS AN EVEN DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THE ONLY MODEL TO RESEMBLE THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z RUNS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS IS THE NAM. DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE IN COURSE AND LACK
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z RUNS POPS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
REMOVAL OF SNOW MENTION AS TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW REGARDLESS IF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OR
NOT DUE TO THE LOW HAVING DIFFICULTY TAPPING INTO COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTH.

AS THE TROF PASSES TO OUR EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND ANOTHER TROF
SHOULD BE COMING ON DECK TOWARDS SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF
RATHER WEAK AND SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE TROF. THIS
IN TURN MAKES THE GFS A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
MORE CONSISTENT PATTERN TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAS MORE INFLUENCE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF TAPS INTO
GULF MOISTURE VIA A LLJ AND PRODUCES PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT CAN BE BROUGHT
DOWN BY THIS TROF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW
THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT JUST LIQUID PRECIP GIVEN THE TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        20  50  29  57  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         25  50  31  54  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     26  51  32  54  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     26  51  34  58  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       28  51  35  57  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   29  51  34  59  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    29  52  35  58  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     29  51  34  51  36 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          28  52  36  55  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     30  52  39  55  41 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/99/26
907
FXUS64 KLUB 152316
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
516 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE MAY PLAY A BIT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK WITH THE WINDS DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER FAIRLY QUICKLY. A
COOLER DAY SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY WITH INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE RIDGE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HINDERING INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION. WE CHOSE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE
BIAS METHODS...WHICH ALSO RESEMBLED PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A LLJ WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FA BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. SOME LIFT
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS THE LIFT APPEARS IT
WILL BE SHALLOW AND WEAK MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED AND
REPLACED WITH ISO SPRINKLES. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW QPF
DURING THIS TIME AND IS LIGHT AT BEST. THE NAM AT TIMES WILL SHOW
SOME QPF WHEN A LAYER IS SATURATED WHEN THE END RESULT IS ONLY
STRATUS. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. A MAGIC EIGHT
BALL BECOMES HANDY AS WE GET INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS STILL
PROGGED TO PUSH THIS WAY BY LATE WEEK...BUT MODELS LARGE AND SMALL
ALIKE DISAGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION AND SPEED OF THE TROF. 12Z RUNS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...MINUS THE CMC...HAVE PRODUCED A DRY FORECAST
FOR LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER BY FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THAN THE GFS BUT DIFFERS GREATLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
00Z RUN. THE CMC HAS AN EVEN DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THE ONLY MODEL TO RESEMBLE THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z RUNS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS IS THE NAM. DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE IN COURSE AND LACK
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z RUNS POPS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
REMOVAL OF SNOW MENTION AS TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW REGARDLESS IF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OR
NOT DUE TO THE LOW HAVING DIFFICULTY TAPPING INTO COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTH.

AS THE TROF PASSES TO OUR EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND ANOTHER TROF
SHOULD BE COMING ON DECK TOWARDS SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF
RATHER WEAK AND SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE TROF. THIS
IN TURN MAKES THE GFS A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
MORE CONSISTENT PATTERN TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAS MORE INFLUENCE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF TAPS INTO
GULF MOISTURE VIA A LLJ AND PRODUCES PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT CAN BE BROUGHT
DOWN BY THIS TROF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW
THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT JUST LIQUID PRECIP GIVEN THE TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  50  29  57  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         25  50  31  54  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     26  51  32  54  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     26  51  34  58  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       28  51  35  57  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   29  51  34  59  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    29  52  35  58  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     29  51  34  51  36 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          28  52  36  55  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     30  52  39  55  41 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
851
FXUS64 KLUB 152117
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BUILD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD UP INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE MAY PLAY A BIT ON LOW
TEMPERATURES LATER TONIGHT...BUT THINK WITH THE WINDS DROPPING
QUICKLY THIS EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD CRATER FAIRLY QUICKLY. A
COOLER DAY SHOULD FOLLOW TUESDAY WITH INFLUENCE FROM A SURFACE RIDGE
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS HINDERING INCOMING
SOLAR RADIATION. WE CHOSE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE ENSEMBLE
BIAS METHODS...WHICH ALSO RESEMBLED PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD RECOVER BACK TO SOUTHERLY MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A LLJ WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE FA BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS. SOME LIFT
WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AS THE LIFT APPEARS IT
WILL BE SHALLOW AND WEAK MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE BEEN DROPPED AND
REPLACED WITH ISO SPRINKLES. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW QPF
DURING THIS TIME AND IS LIGHT AT BEST. THE NAM AT TIMES WILL SHOW
SOME QPF WHEN A LAYER IS SATURATED WHEN THE END RESULT IS ONLY
STRATUS. TEMPS WILL WARM SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FA AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO SCATTER OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. A MAGIC EIGHT
BALL BECOMES HANDY AS WE GET INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND
BEYOND. A TROF CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS STILL
PROGGED TO PUSH THIS WAY BY LATE WEEK...BUT MODELS LARGE AND SMALL
ALIKE DISAGREE ON THE AMPLIFICATION AND SPEED OF THE TROF. 12Z RUNS
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...MINUS THE CMC...HAVE PRODUCED A DRY FORECAST
FOR LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL THE GFS APPEARS TO BE THE BIGGEST
OUTLIER BY FLATTENING OUT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROF THAN THE GFS BUT DIFFERS GREATLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
00Z RUN. THE CMC HAS AN EVEN DEEPER TROF THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.
THE ONLY MODEL TO RESEMBLE THE MORE CONSISTENT 00Z RUNS OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS IS THE NAM. DUE TO THE SUDDEN CHANGE IN COURSE AND LACK
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z RUNS POPS HAVE REMAINED MAINLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE
REMOVAL OF SNOW MENTION AS TEMPS APPEAR TO BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT
SNOW REGARDLESS IF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY OR
NOT DUE TO THE LOW HAVING DIFFICULTY TAPPING INTO COLDER AIR FROM
THE NORTH.

AS THE TROF PASSES TO OUR EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND ANOTHER TROF
SHOULD BE COMING ON DECK TOWARDS SUNDAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROF
RATHER WEAK AND SUPPRESSED WHILE THE ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE TROF. THIS
IN TURN MAKES THE GFS A FASTER AND DRIER SOLUTION. THE ECMWF KEEPS A
MORE CONSISTENT PATTERN TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THUS HAS MORE INFLUENCE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF TAPS INTO
GULF MOISTURE VIA A LLJ AND PRODUCES PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE TROF. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT CAN BE BROUGHT
DOWN BY THIS TROF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW
THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT JUST LIQUID PRECIP GIVEN THE TIME RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        22  50  29  57  32 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         25  50  31  54  34 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     26  51  32  54  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     26  51  34  58  35 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       28  51  35  57  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   29  51  34  59  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    29  52  35  58  36 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     29  51  34  51  36 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          28  52  36  55  38 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     30  52  39  55  41 /   0   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
221
FXUS64 KLUB 151721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY VFR WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND A COOL
SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIN HIGH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF CYCLE. IN ADDITION...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE /COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/...THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY AT KCDS BEFORE THEY DROP
OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE WIND TO WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY WAS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY WELL OUT OF TOWN...SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS
OF 08Z. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TODAY /THOUGH NOTHING IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/...WHILE LIGHTER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS VISIT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL
FURTHER DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL COOL
MID-DECEMBER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FOR NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK
AROUND MULESHOE TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
BEFORE THEN...FULL INSOLATION WILL SECURE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A COOL AND QUIET TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LARGER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A LLJ AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING CAUSING
STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE SPOTTY AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH EDGES INTO THE
AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND DEPTH ISSUES TO BE HASHED
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE TRENDS INDICATE A MORE CLOSED...AND
SLOWER SYSTEM...WHICH COULD END UP BEING BETTER FOR OUR PRECIP
CHANCES. THE CURRENT MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES
COULD BE HIGHEST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE ALSO PRESENT A CHALLENGE AS
THE ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND
WOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS...WHILE IN THE GFS SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED
TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-FRI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.

A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SW BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS TEXAS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO AFFECT
OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES START TO RAMP
UP POPS ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO
SOME INDICATION OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE SAME
TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP...JUST IN TIME
FOR THE BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL WINTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  21  51  28  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         53  24  51  29  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  24  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     56  25  52  33  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  27  52  34  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   58  27  52  33  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    58  27  52  34  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  29  51  33  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          60  29  52  36  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     61  30  52  37  54 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
516
FXUS64 KLUB 151137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL DOMINATE WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF CYCLE. IN ADDITION...WINDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE /COMPARED TO YESTERDAY/...THOUGH BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY AT KCDS BEFORE THEY DROP
OFF EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE WIND TO WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY WAS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY WELL OUT OF TOWN...SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS
OF 08Z. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TODAY /THOUGH NOTHING IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/...WHILE LIGHTER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS VISIT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL
FURTHER DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL COOL
MID-DECEMBER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FOR NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK
AROUND MULESHOE TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
BEFORE THEN...FULL INSOLATION WILL SECURE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF AVERAGE.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A COOL AND QUIET TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LARGER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A LLJ AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING CAUSING
STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE SPOTTY AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH EDGES INTO THE
AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND DEPTH ISSUES TO BE HASHED
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE TRENDS INDICATE A MORE CLOSED...AND
SLOWER SYSTEM...WHICH COULD END UP BEING BETTER FOR OUR PRECIP
CHANCES. THE CURRENT MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES
COULD BE HIGHEST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE ALSO PRESENT A CHALLENGE AS
THE ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND
WOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS...WHILE IN THE GFS SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED
TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-FRI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.

A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SW BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS TEXAS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO AFFECT
OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES START TO RAMP
UP POPS ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO
SOME INDICATION OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE SAME
TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP...JUST IN TIME
FOR THE BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL WINTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  21  51  28  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         53  24  51  29  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  24  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     56  25  52  33  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  27  52  34  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   58  27  52  33  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    58  27  52  34  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  29  51  33  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          60  29  52  36  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     61  30  52  37  54 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
498
FXUS64 KLUB 150937
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE WIND TO WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY WAS NOW
MAKING ITS WAY WELL OUT OF TOWN...SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS
OF 08Z. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE
QUAD CITIES AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING WILL NOSE INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM. A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TODAY /THOUGH NOTHING IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/...WHILE LIGHTER
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS VISIT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THE WINDS WILL
FURTHER DROP OFF EARLY THIS EVENING SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL COOL
MID-DECEMBER NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FOR NEAR THE 20 DEGREE MARK
AROUND MULESHOE TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
BEFORE THEN...FULL INSOLATION WILL SECURE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A COOL AND QUIET TUESDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT DOWNSTREAM
OF THE LARGER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A LLJ AND ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING CAUSING
STRATUS TO FILL IN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE UNIMPRESSIVE AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
BE SPOTTY AND ON THE LIGHT SIDE. WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN TROUGH EDGES INTO THE
AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND DEPTH ISSUES TO BE HASHED
OUT WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THE TRENDS INDICATE A MORE CLOSED...AND
SLOWER SYSTEM...WHICH COULD END UP BEING BETTER FOR OUR PRECIP
CHANCES. THE CURRENT MODEL BLEND SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP CHANCES
COULD BE HIGHEST IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE ALSO PRESENT A CHALLENGE AS
THE ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND
WOULD SUPPORT A CHANCE OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX FOR ALL BUT THE
LOWEST ELEVATIONS...WHILE IN THE GFS SNOW POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED
TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE AND NW SPLNS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WED-FRI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S TO 50S.

A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CARVED OUT ACROSS THE
DESERT SW BY NEXT WEEKEND...WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS TEXAS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE NEAR ENOUGH TO AFFECT
OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES START TO RAMP
UP POPS ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO
SOME INDICATION OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA AROUND THE SAME
TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN PRECIP...JUST IN TIME
FOR THE BEGINNING OF ASTRONOMICAL WINTER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  21  51  28  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         53  24  51  29  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     54  24  52  31  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     56  25  52  33  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  27  52  34  54 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   58  27  52  33  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    58  27  52  34  56 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  29  51  33  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
SPUR          60  29  52  36  54 /   0   0   0  10  20
ASPERMONT     61  30  52  37  54 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
087
FXUS64 KLUB 150520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL DECLINE TO AOA 10
KTS AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW...BUT STAY UP A BIT KCDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS /AOA 16 KTS/. TOMORROW EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 KTS AT THREE TAF SITES WHILE FEW-SCT VFR
DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIND SPEEDS RAMPED UP FOR THE MOST PART AS EXPECTED AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX/OK PANHANDLES
THANKS TO THE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN THE
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND AND EXPECT THAT SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WORST OF THE BLOWING DUST APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOFTED DUST FOR
IT TO BE NOTICED ALL ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH MINOR DROPS IN
VISIBILITY.  SKIES HAVE PRETTY WELL CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO ENCROACH
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL CONTINUE THIS
PRODUCT THROUGH 6PM.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S ACROSS ROLLING
PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE...WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE A COOL DAY THANKS TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE
A WEAK EJECTING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WAVE IS DISPLAYING NOW
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT PRODUCING MODEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS A 100-150 MILLIBAR DEEP MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
SPREADS MAINLY INTO EASTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY. BULK OF LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES LOWER FOR MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
DUE TO THE LIMITED EXPECTED DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL WEAKNESS
OF THE DISTURBANCE.

A BREAK SHOULD FOLLOW MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE JUST IN ADVANCE OF A
MODERATE STRENGTH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS DEEPENED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE OPEN. OUR SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT VERY NEARLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS PREFERRED ONCE
AGAIN. THIS PRESENTS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN OR SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT IF AIRMASS WILL EVEN SUPPORT FROZEN PHASE SO EXPECT TO
HONE IN ON VARIOUS ELEMENTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. IN ANY CASE...MOST
RECENT SOLUTIONS STILL DO NOT SHOW A MAJOR ACCUMULATING TYPE
SYSTEM IN OUR AREA FRIDAY THOUGH ALSO DO NOT QUITE RULE THIS OUT.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE FAVORED BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO DIG SOUTHWARD SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST...
LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE PREFER
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  53  23  51  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         31  54  25  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     31  54  25  53  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     33  55  26  52  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       33  56  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   34  58  27  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    35  57  28  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     37  58  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          36  59  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     39  60  29  53  39 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
230
FXUS64 KLUB 150006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
606 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE WX PACKAGE TO REFLECT SUSTAINED WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS DROPPING BELOW 31 MPH /THUS ALLOWING THE WIND ADVISORY
TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6 PM CST/...AS WELL AS SHOWING IMPROVED
VISIBILITY WITH DUST NO LONGER BEING AN ISSUE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

AVIATION...
RATHER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS PERSISTED AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING /19-27 KTS SUSTAINED/...THOUGH IT IS
HAS COME DOWN A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTN. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A BIT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
CONCURRENTLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SPEEDS AT KPVW AND KLBB /AOA 10
KTS/ BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT KCDS /AOA 16 KTS/ DURING THE AFTN
HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIND SPEEDS RAMPED UP FOR THE MOST PART AS EXPECTED AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX/OK PANHANDLES
THANKS TO THE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN THE
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND AND EXPECT THAT SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WORST OF THE BLOWING DUST APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOFTED DUST FOR
IT TO BE NOTICED ALL ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH MINOR DROPS IN
VISIBILITY.  SKIES HAVE PRETTY WELL CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO ENCROACH
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL CONTINUE THIS
PRODUCT THROUGH 6PM.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S ACROSS ROLLING
PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE...WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE A COOL DAY THANKS TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE
A WEAK EJECTING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WAVE IS DISPLAYING NOW
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT PRODUCING MODEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS A 100-150 MILLIBAR DEEP MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
SPREADS MAINLY INTO EASTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY. BULK OF LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES LOWER FOR MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
DUE TO THE LIMITED EXPECTED DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL WEAKNESS
OF THE DISTURBANCE.

A BREAK SHOULD FOLLOW MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE JUST IN ADVANCE OF A
MODERATE STRENGTH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS DEEPENED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE OPEN. OUR SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT VERY NEARLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS PREFERRED ONCE
AGAIN. THIS PRESENTS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN OR SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT IF AIRMASS WILL EVEN SUPPORT FROZEN PHASE SO EXPECT TO
HONE IN ON VARIOUS ELEMENTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. IN ANY CASE...MOST
RECENT SOLUTIONS STILL DO NOT SHOW A MAJOR ACCUMULATING TYPE
SYSTEM IN OUR AREA FRIDAY THOUGH ALSO DO NOT QUITE RULE THIS OUT.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE FAVORED BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO DIG SOUTHWARD SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST...
LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE PREFER
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  53  23  51  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         31  54  25  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     31  54  25  53  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     33  55  26  52  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       33  56  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   34  58  27  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    35  57  28  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     37  58  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          36  59  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     39  60  29  53  39 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
211
FXUS64 KLUB 142318
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
518 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
RATHER BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS PERSISTED AT ALL THREE
TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING /19-27 KTS SUSTAINED/...THOUGH IT IS
HAS COME DOWN A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTN. AS SUCH...EXPECT A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER WIND
SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A BIT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND NIGHT.
CONCURRENTLY WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SPEEDS AT KPVW AND KLBB /AOA 10
KTS/ BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT KCDS /AOA 16 KTS/ DURING THE AFTN
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIND SPEEDS RAMPED UP FOR THE MOST PART AS EXPECTED AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX/OK PANHANDLES
THANKS TO THE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN THE
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND AND EXPECT THAT SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WORST OF THE BLOWING DUST APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOFTED DUST FOR
IT TO BE NOTICED ALL ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH MINOR DROPS IN
VISIBILITY.  SKIES HAVE PRETTY WELL CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO ENCROACH
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL CONTINUE THIS
PRODUCT THROUGH 6PM.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S ACROSS ROLLING
PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE...WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE A COOL DAY THANKS TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE
A WEAK EJECTING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WAVE IS DISPLAYING NOW
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT PRODUCING MODEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS A 100-150 MILLIBAR DEEP MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
SPREADS MAINLY INTO EASTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY. BULK OF LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES LOWER FOR MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
DUE TO THE LIMITED EXPECTED DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL WEAKNESS
OF THE DISTURBANCE.

A BREAK SHOULD FOLLOW MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE JUST IN ADVANCE OF A
MODERATE STRENGTH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS DEEPENED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE OPEN. OUR SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT VERY NEARLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS PREFERRED ONCE
AGAIN. THIS PRESENTS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN OR SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT IF AIRMASS WILL EVEN SUPPORT FROZEN PHASE SO EXPECT TO
HONE IN ON VARIOUS ELEMENTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. IN ANY CASE...MOST
RECENT SOLUTIONS STILL DO NOT SHOW A MAJOR ACCUMULATING TYPE
SYSTEM IN OUR AREA FRIDAY THOUGH ALSO DO NOT QUITE RULE THIS OUT.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE FAVORED BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO DIG SOUTHWARD SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST...
LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE PREFER
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  53  23  51  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         31  54  25  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     31  54  25  53  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     33  55  26  52  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       33  56  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   34  58  27  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    35  57  28  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     37  58  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          36  59  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     39  60  29  53  39 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

29

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