Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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544
FXUS64 KLUB 110503
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1203 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH
MENTION TONIGHT FOR KLBB AS INCREASING LIFT TRIES TO DEVELOP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWERING CEILINGS SHOULD COMMENCE BY THURSDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE LEFT MVFR MENTION IN UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS TAKE OVER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS TRIED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT JUST DIDN/T ALLOW
THEM TO TAKE ROOT. WE HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 06 UTC/1 AM AS IT
APPEARS THE WEATHER WILL BE PRETTY QUIET FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EDGES CLOSER
TOWARD WTX...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT /AS CAN BE SEEN WITH
SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER IN NM/. AND WE SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
LOW-LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE STALLING
FRONT IN THE PERMIAN BASIN. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FROM SE NM INTO THE SRN AND
WRN SOUTH PLAINS...AND POTENTIALLY SPREADING EAST THROUGH ABOUT 12
UTC. THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE FAVORED AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED...BUT COULD BRING SOME LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS. WE HAVE ALSO DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL COUNTIES IN THE FA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KENT AND STONEWALL. TEMPS HAVE BEHAVED PRETTY WELL THIS
AFTERNOON AS THIS FRONT WAS NOT OVERLY STRONG. CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PRETTY WELL BEHAVED AS WELL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING THE
FA AND WITH LOW STRATUS STAYING NORTH OF THE FA. THAT WILL CHANGE
LATER THIS EVENING. WV SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN...A SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND
WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN
LIFTING FORCE TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE ISENTROPIC LIFTING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH FORCING BEING RATHER
WEAK RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT DESPITE PWATS AVERAGING
OVER 1.5 INCHES. HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS IN AREAS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
BREAK AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL BE PRESENT INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO START TOMORROW
AFTERNOON STARTING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AS A UPPER LEVEL
JET MAX PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING TOMORROW AS THE FA GETS PUT ON
THE EDGE OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A MUCH STRONGER JET POSITIONED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO NIGHT DUE TO PWATS OVER
1.5 INCHES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW...AND MORE AVAILABLE LIFT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
PART THANKS TO THE FRONT BUT WILL BE MODERATED DUE TO CLOUD COVER.
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH WEAK CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TOMORROW WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS SEEING TEMPS
AROUND 80. ALDRICH

LONG TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GOOD RAIN CHANCES COMING THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED CLOUDY AND COOL SATURDAY WITH DIMINISHING
RAIN CHANCES.  WARMER SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY IS LEANING TOWARD IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION REINFORCING THE UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WHILE
FLOW ALOFT BRINGS MINOR DISTURBANCES AND VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.  SOUNDINGS SHOW THE
BEST LIFT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
AROUND NOON ON FRIDAY.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE WE HAVE
INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF THUNDER.  THE ONGOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOLLOWS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE.  THE COOLEST DAY
SHOULD BE OUR WET FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.  LIPE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        80  57  78  57  59 /  10  20  20  70  80
TULIA         83  57  78  56  61 /  10  20  20  70  80
PLAINVIEW     85  58  78  58  62 /  10  30  20  70  80
LEVELLAND     87  60  77  59  65 /  10  30  20  70  80
LUBBOCK       90  60  76  59  65 /  10  30  20  70  80
DENVER CITY   90  63  77  60  67 /  10  30  30  60  80
BROWNFIELD    91  62  78  60  66 /  10  30  40  70  80
CHILDRESS     89  62  80  61  65 /  10  20  20  60  80
SPUR          89  64  77  62  68 /  10  30  20  70  80
ASPERMONT     99  67  80  64  71 /  20  30  30  60  70

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31

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