Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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572
FXUS64 KLUB 230127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
727 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS EVENINGS SNOWFALL VERY
WELL. TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS ANOTHER 1/2 INCH WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
WHICH LIKELY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING ICING ON HIGHWAYS. ADVISORY
ENDS CURRENTLY AT MIDNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

AVIATION...
WE HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE LAST OF THE LIFR FOR THIS EVENT.
CEILINGS AT KPLV ARE CURRENTLY IN THE IFR RANGE AND ARE FORECASTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CURRENT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM AND THE LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN THEIR NORTHERLY COMPONENT
BEFORE BACKING TOWARD THE WEST LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN NEW MEXICO. THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH /FROM SRN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/ PRODUCING THE LAST BIT OF LIFT
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. 18Z WRF-NAM AND
MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL SEWD IN TIME. SOME MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS
BEEN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOWFALL FROM LUBBOCK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE.

PRECIP LIKELY TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA WHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW END CHANCE MENTION ATTM.

SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE. THAT CLEARING
ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
THERE TO DROP TO OR BELOW COLD END OF MOS GUIDANCE WHILE FARTHER
EAST LOW TEMPS NEAR A MOS BLEND MORE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY. INSOLATION AND MODEST WEST WIND TO BE COUNTERACTED
ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY THE SNOW FIELD. WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THERE AND LEAN CLOSER TO MOS FURTHER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMUP UNDERNEATH INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS
AND TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING POINTS EAST. ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS SATURDAY...OWING TO ENERGY ALOFT BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF
LOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 40S/50S SATURDAY AND NEAR 50 IN VICINITY OF
LINGERING SNOWPACK IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO MID 60S IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT BY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE LOCALLY. FURTHER WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MAY SEE A COOLDOWN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-LATE WEEK IF
PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SERIES OF PROGGED
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         8  36  14  41 /  40   0   0   0
TULIA         12  38  22  43 /  40   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     15  37  23  46 /  50   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     14  38  22  47 /  70   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  23  48 /  70   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  38  25  49 /  70  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  40  23  49 /  70  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     23  45  29  55 /  40   0   0   0
SPUR          22  43  27  53 /  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     27  47  28  55 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99

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