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878
FXUS64 KLUB 191152
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
SET TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT. KLBB
CURRENTLY UNDER LIFR CEILINGS AND EXPECTING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH -SHRA APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO DROP TO IFR OR BELOW AS RAINFALL
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED DISTURBANCE DRAWS NEARER COINCIDENT WITH AT LEAST SOME
HEATING. AT LEAST IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE OFFING AGAIN
TONIGHT FOLLOWING A POTENTIAL REPRIEVE TO PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. KCDS WILL EXPERIENCE IFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING BEFORE LIKELY BECOMING VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON AS -SHRA
MOVE IN. HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT THIS FAR TO THE
NORTHEAST...SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE. SATURATED
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS HERE BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31
068
FXUS64 KLUB 190916
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
416 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MOISTURE TRIFECTA IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS IS
THANKS TO MOISTURE ALOFT SOURCING THE REMNANTS OF ODILE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO/SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND TROPICAL STORM POLO OFF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE FEEDING THE
LOW LEVELS. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY HIGH PWATS OF NEAR 2 INCHES WILL BE
IN PLACE AHEAD OF PLENTY OF UPPER LIFT OWING TO UPPER ENERGY
REMAINING FROM ODILE. THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE
RAINFALL THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE AREAS TO THE EAST
SEE INCREASING CHANCES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE/WATER VAPOR
SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY POCKET IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL SEE THIS ERODE AND SATURATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

PERSISTENT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY AMOUNTS FALLING AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT MAINTAINED
THUNDER MENTION AS MESOSCALE LIFT WILL BE NOTHING SHORT OF
IMPRESSIVE DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER SUPPORT. IMPRESSIVE OMEGA FIELDS
THROUGHOUT THE DEPTHS OF A SATURATED TROPOSPHERE WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE OVERCAST SKIES AND A
LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AS TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ON THE CAPROCK AND MID 70S TO LOW 80S EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT.

HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING
PLAINS AS LIFT OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA. THOSE ATTENDING HIGH
SCHOOL FOOTBALL GAMES AND OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXPECT
TO SEE RAIN AT SOME TIME THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. PLEASE KEEP THIS
IN MIND WHEN DRIVING HOME IN THE DARK AS ALREADY SATURATED SOIL
WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER AND FLOODING ON AREA
ROADWAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WE SHOULD SEE THE REMAINS OF T.C. ODILE
LOCATED PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD BEFORE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
CALIFORNIA LOW ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE WITH A TRAILING TROUGH APPROACHING
US LATE TUESDAY.  AT THIS POINT...HIGH PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS
BAJA WHILE ANOTHER STRONG LOW DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NW
BEFORE STALLING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.  BY NEXT SATURDAY...LOW MAY
APPROACH THE FOUR CORNERS GIVING US ANOTHER SHOT OF ACTIVE WEATHER.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.  GIVEN THE PATTERN...AM A BIT
SURPRISED THAT MOS HAS COME IN CLOSER TO 50 PCT POPS.  WILL KEEP THE
LIKELY TO DEFINITE CATEGORY GOING FOR THE EAST.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT LESS IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF LIFT THOUGH THERE SHOULD EASILY BE
SOME STORMS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST AS THE REMNANT DEPRESSION
SINKS TOWARD THE DAVIS MTNS.  WHAT REDUCES POPS IN THE NORTHEAST IS
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP FILTER A BIT LESS JUICY AIR INTO
THE AREA.  WITH PWATS STAYING QUITE JUICY INTO MONDAY...SEE LITTLE
REASON TO TOTALLY DRY THINGS OUT YET.  IN FACT ECM MOS KEEPS
RESPECTABLE POPS GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. THAT SAID...
GIVEN THE ECMWF PENCHANT FOR OVERZEALOUS POP FCSTS OUT
HERE...WILL KEEP POPS SILENT BEYOND DAY 5.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        68  64  74  63  79 /  90  80  40  30  40
TULIA         72  65  73  65  82 /  80  80  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     72  65  74  65  80 /  80  80  60  50  40
LEVELLAND     71  65  75  65  75 /  90  80  50  50  50
LUBBOCK       73  65  75  65  77 /  90  80  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   71  65  76  66  75 / 100  80  60  40  50
BROWNFIELD    72  66  76  66  75 /  90  80  60  50  60
CHILDRESS     82  69  79  67  86 /  60  90  70  40  30
SPUR          78  67  78  67  82 /  80  90  70  60  40
ASPERMONT     79  68  83  69  84 /  70  90  70  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

31/26
049
FXUS64 KLUB 190448
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
WILL LIKELY BEGIN AFFECTING THE KLBB TERMINAL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IFR CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE AT KLBB WILL LIKELY LOWER FURTHER
INTO LIFR TERRITORY AND POSSIBLY VLIFR. AS THE REMNANTS OF A
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH SEVERAL MORE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY FIRST
AFFECTING KLBB. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
BUT WILL NOT PLACE IN THE TAF DUE TO THE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
EXPECTED STORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

01
965
FXUS64 KLUB 182338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OF HIGHER IMPACT WILL BE LOW
CIGS/VISBYS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS TONIGHT OF THE OCCURRENCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KEEPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY NON-VFR...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

01
646
FXUS64 KLUB 182034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

05/23
451
FXUS64 KLUB 181750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
REMAINS OF TS ODILE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO DEEP MOISTURE...THIS WILL FAVOR
DEEP LIFT AND PREVAILING RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES FOR KLBB.
AIRMASS JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KLBB APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY
DESTABILIZING AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDER CHANCES. A WESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
NOW IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE THROUGH KCDS BY 20Z AND APPROACH
KLBB 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THUNDER
CHANCES. DO NOT ANTICIPATE NECESSARILY CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT KLBB BUT THE BREAKS ARE DIFFICULT TO SUPPORT OR TIME.
MORE STRATIFORM ENVIRONMENT SEEMS MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RISK KLBB ESPECIALLY AND MOSTLY IFR
POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCLUDING HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FA...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS
GOING TO TEND TO CONVERGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD. POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO ADDED TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  74  61  82  59 /  60  70  60  30  30
TULIA         64  77  63  80  62 /  50  70  60  50  30
PLAINVIEW     64  77  63  80  62 /  60  70  60  50  30
LEVELLAND     65  76  63  81  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
LUBBOCK       67  77  66  81  65 /  70  70  60  50  40
DENVER CITY   66  78  64  84  63 /  70  70  60  40  40
BROWNFIELD    67  78  64  83  64 /  70  70  60  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  83  67  80  66 /  50  50  60  60  40
SPUR          67  80  65  82  66 /  60  50  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     69  85  69  85  68 /  60  50  60  50  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

99/99/05
656
FXUS64 KLUB 181505 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1005 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED EASTWARD TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE
CWA...EXCLUDING HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. A LARGE AREA OF
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO ENVELOP MUCH OF THE FA...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL IS
GOING TO TEND TO CONVERGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...AND FOR THIS REASON WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH EASTWARD. POP...WEATHER AND QPF GRIDS WERE ALSO
ADJUSTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO ADDED TO A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WHILE MAINTAINING THE HEAVY RAIN MENTION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  70  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  70  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  90  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  65  80 /  90  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  80  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  80  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  70  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  90  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  80  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

05/23
685
FXUS64 KLUB 181130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FLYING WEATHER FOR VFR PILOTS WILL BE A DISAPPOINTMENT NEXT 24
HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. WE MAY SEE SOME PERIOD OF MVFR/VFR AT
KLBB BUT THIS IS LIKELY ONLY TO EXIST BETWEEN STORMS AS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON BREAK
THEN MORE AGAIN TONIGHT. IFR AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IMPACTED MUCH LESS
HEAVILY THOUGH MANEUVERING AROUND CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL BE
NECESSARY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL VEER TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE /WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH A NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  65  80 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/26
699
FXUS64 KLUB 180822
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SHORT TERM TO SAY THE LEAST.  H2 RIDGING IS NOTED ON NWP
INITIALIZATION AS WOULD BE EXPECTED ABOVE A VIBRANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  LOOKING AT H7 AND BELOW...WE SEE A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE
/WHAT IS LEFT OF ODILE/ WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS SERN AZ.  STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE AND
IS QUITE EVIDENT ON WV AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE TSTM
COMPLEX RUNNING FROM THE SIERRA DIABLO MTNS UP INTO THE SACRAMENTOS
IS RATHER HEALTHY FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT.  IT IS FORMED ALONG ONE OF
THE BANDED FEATURES.  THE HRRR SEEMS TO BE ONTO SOMETHING AND HAD
CORRECTLY FORECAST THE ESTABLISHMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.  IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE...AS THE SACRAMENTO
RANGE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEVELOP
BEFORE 12Z ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

LOOKING AHEAD AFTER 12Z...Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DECENT LARGE
SCALE LIFT PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ESPECIALLY WEST
OF THE ESCARPMENT.  THIS FORCING APPEARS TO WANE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING...ALBEIT MORE
WEAKLY...OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING AND COOLING OF
THE MID LEVEL SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG/SKINNY CAPE WHICH SHOULD KEEP
LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO...BOTTOM LINE...WILL CONTINUE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MOST AREAS CATEGORIZED AS LIKELY.  IN REVIEWING NWP DERIVED QPF AND
HPC FCST FIELDS...THIS ASSESSMENT SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL.

WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE VERY WET THIS SEPTEMBER IN LUBBOCK WITH MANY
DAYS OF RAINFALL...WE ARE STILL ONLY ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF THE WAY TO
THE RECORD RAINFALL OF 2008 WHERE 8.7 INCHES FELL.  STILL...WITH
MANY MORE DAYS OF RAINFALL STARING AT US LATER THIS WEEK...WE COULD
SEE THIS CHALLENGED.

GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PROTRACTED RAIN EVENT...HAVE ELECTED
TO ISSUE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES GENERALLY WEST OF THE
ESCARPMENT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD LATER IN TIME BUT WANT RAISE AWARENESS
THAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS COULD POSE SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS.
THOUGH...WE CAN USE THE RAIN AFTER THE DEFICIT SINCE LATE 2010.

&&

.LONG TERM...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WAS LOCATED ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS ERN OLD MEXICO GUIDING
ODILE/S REMNANTS ENE TO ACROSS THE DESERT SW. CONTINUED AMPLE
MOISTURE PROVIDED BY ODILE AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE WILL RESULT
IN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.50-2.10 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE SAID DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EXHIBITS THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ENE ACROSS NERN NM/WRN PANHANDLES TOMORROW
EVENING...TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED EWRD PROGRESSION /THUS EXITING THE
REGION/. THE CURRENT ECMWF RUN IS QUITE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS AS IT NOT ONLY MOVES THE DISTURBANCE ALMOST
SQUARELY ACROSS THE CWA TOMORROW NIGHT...IT THEN BECOMES
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER IT
COMMENCES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION. THE OBVIOUSLY SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION WOULD MEAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL/ LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS AN UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE GFS SOLUTION ATTM...GIVEN IT IS A BIT MORE PERSISTENT FROM MODEL
RUN TO MODEL RUN. THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE THREAT FOR MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING EAST TO WEST WITH TIME...WILL BE BEST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THUS COINCIDING WITH WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
PASSES NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SRLY FLOW AT THE SFC WILL VEER
TO THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
/WHICH IS NO LONGER SHOWN VIA THE ECMWF SOLUTION/. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A
NOTABLE DECLINE NORTH TO SOUTH.

AS AN UA RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN
AND PROMOTE TOP-DOWN DRYING...WHICH IS THE REASON FOR PWATS
DECLINING A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THOUGH...AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.30
INCHES WILL ENDURE.  SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE UPSLOPE SFC
REGIME ON TUESDAY HENCE CAUSING PWATS TO JUMP BACK UP A BIT.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF NRN
CA/OR...THAT IS SET TO WEAKEN WHILST PROGRESSING ENE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO ACROSS PANHANDLE REGION/CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INCREASING UL SUPPORT MAY
LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN MENTIONABLE
POPS ON TUESDAY. WILL OF COURSE NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW ODILE/S
REMNANTS WILL IN FACT BEHAVE BECAUSE IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT...POPS
WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE RAMPED UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS /70S AND 80S/ WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  63  74  61  82 /  60  60  70  60  30
TULIA         78  64  77  63  80 /  40  50  70  60  50
PLAINVIEW     78  64  77  63  80 /  60  60  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     77  65  76  63  81 /  80  70  70  60  40
LUBBOCK       78  67  77  66  81 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   77  66  78  64  84 /  90  70  70  60  40
BROWNFIELD    77  67  78  64  83 /  90  70  70  60  40
CHILDRESS     84  67  83  67  80 /  40  50  50  60  60
SPUR          80  67  80  65  82 /  60  60  50  60  50
ASPERMONT     83  69  85  69  85 /  60  60  50  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

26/29
144
FXUS64 KLUB 180444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT NEAR KCDS
AND WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO KLBB BY LATER IN THE
MORNING. SKIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AT KCDS. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...REDUCTIONS IN CIGS AND VISBYS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KLBB
ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE TO WHICH IT WILL BE REDUCED IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
110
FXUS64 KLUB 172334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT KLBB DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARILY RAIN SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE MOIST
GROUND...LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PROGRESS. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BOTH
AT KLBB AND KCDS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KCDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
629
FXUS64 KLUB 172041
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
341 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE EXPECTED TO CROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
LATER TONIGHT INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILE SPREADING INTO THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH
INCREASING DEEP LIFT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LESSER
CHANCES REMAINING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON ARE MORE INTENSE THAN
YESTERDAY SHOWING 20 MINUTE PERIODS OR SO OF DEEPENING ROTATION
BUT NONE SO FAR HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STICK LONGER THAN THAT.
STILL...A FEW STORMS LIKELY APPROACHING LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS EVENTUALLY
SHOULD MORPH INTO A LARGER MORE HEAVY RAIN-PRONE TYPE OF SYSTEM
THIS EVENING AND WE ANTICIPATE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORIES. FLOOD THREAT POTENTIAL THURSDAY MAY NEED RE-EVALUATION
FOLLOWING THIS EVENINGS RAINFALL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH AS IS TYPICAL...THE EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

NEAR RECORD HIGH PWATS FOR SEPTEMBER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY. THIS RICH MOISTURE WILL BE WORKED ON BY A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...THE MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE HURRICANE ODILE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST
RECENT NWP CARRY THE VORT MAX FROM ODILE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE EMERGING JUST TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY...THOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND DIRECTED
MORE SQUARELY OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. OBVIOUSLY...THESE DETAILS WILL
BE CRITICAL IN HOW THINGS PLAY OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS. FOR NOW WE
HAVE FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS APPROACH...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES EXPANDING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD...FAVORING THE ROLLING
PLAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE FURTHER BOOSTED POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEFINITELY BE A THREAT...AND WE HAVE BEGUN TO HEIGHTEN
THIS THROUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT DOES APPEAR THE DEEPER-LAYER MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY...UNLESS THE SLOWER ECMWF IS CORRECT...AND
THIS COULD SPELL LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...A RESERVOIR OF ABOVE
AVERAGE MOISTURE MAY NOT MOVE THAT FAR AWAY AND THIS COULD KEEP AT
LEAST SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THESE
RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF
THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT EMERGES FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. WE DID MAINTAIN
A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WHEN WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MAY BRIEFLY GLIDE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
UNCERTAIN. WE DID EXTEND MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
WELL AS ADDING POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH.

THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...AND PERIODS OF
RAINFALL WILL FAVOR COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THIS WEEKEND. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MOVE IN BY
LATE WEEKEND BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  75  62  74  61 /  40  60  50  70  60
TULIA         62  79  63  77  63 /  30  40  40  70  60
PLAINVIEW     63  76  63  78  64 /  50  60  40  70  60
LEVELLAND     62  74  63  76  63 /  60  60  50  70  60
LUBBOCK       64  75  66  77  66 /  60  60  50  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  73  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
BROWNFIELD    63  74  64  77  64 /  60  60  50  70  60
CHILDRESS     68  86  68  82  67 /  20  40  20  50  60
SPUR          66  78  66  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  69  86  69 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
300
FXUS64 KLUB 171754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL THIN BRIEFLY NEAR AND WEST OF KLBB EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING RAPID SURFACE WARMING...WHICH THEN WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ERUPTION BY MIDDAY AS SHOWN BY SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS. ALREADY SEEING TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF
CLOVIS. THIS VALIDATES A TEMPO -TSRA GROUP FOR KLBB LATER TODAY.
LIFT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO MORE GENERAL
RAIN. MOST SOLUTIONS STILL KEEP BULK OF ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
KCDS...THOUGH CERTAINLY EXPECT SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KCDS AT SOME
POINT AS THIS WET REGIME OVERTAKES AREAS JUST TO THE WEST. WITH
SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS...KLBB VERY WELL WILL HAVE CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS...AND ALSO LATER TONIGHT AS THE
COOLER RAIN PREVAILS. LIGHT FOG ALSO GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KLBB.
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS HOWEVER WILL NOT BE EXPLICITLY FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM T.C. ODILE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...KLBB IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF -RA THOUGH FIELD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SW OF KLBB AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  60  77  60 /  40  60  50  60  60
TULIA         62  81  62  80  62 /  30  40  40  60  60
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  50  60  40  60  60
LEVELLAND     63  77  62  78  63 /  60  60  50  60  60
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  65 /  60  60  50  60  50
DENVER CITY   64  76  63  80  64 /  60  60  50  60  60
BROWNFIELD    64  78  63  79  64 /  60  60  50  60  60
CHILDRESS     66  86  66  81  66 /  20  40  20  50  50
SPUR          66  82  65  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  50
ASPERMONT     68  84  68  84  68 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
132
FXUS64 KLUB 171109
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.AVIATION...
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM T.C. ODILE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...KLBB IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF -RA THOUGH FIELD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SW OF KLBB AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  64  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
789
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29
789
FXUS64 KLUB 170757
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  60  78  60  77 /  30  30  30  50  60
TULIA         80  62  81  62  80 /  20  20  30  40  60
PLAINVIEW     78  63  80  62  80 /  20  30  30  40  60
LEVELLAND     75  63  77  62  78 /  50  40  40  50  60
LUBBOCK       78  64  79  65  79 /  40  30  40  50  60
DENVER CITY   78  64  76  63  80 /  70  50  50  50  60
BROWNFIELD    77  64  78  63  79 /  60  50  50  50  60
CHILDRESS     87  66  86  66  81 /  20  20  20  20  50
SPUR          80  66  82  65  81 /  30  30  30  40  50
ASPERMONT     82  68  84  68  84 /  30  30  30  40  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/29
903
FXUS64 KLUB 162348 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
648 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. KLBB IS A DIFFERENT STORY. VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT
NOW WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. THIS SHOULD HELP
KEEP CEILINGS VFR UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CEILING HEIGHTS DOWN INTO LOW MVFR RANGE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IS LOW ON
HOW THINGS WILL UNFOLD AND WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT
ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITIES POSSIBLY
DROPPING INTO MVFR RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
646
FXUS64 KLUB 162027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
DEFORMATION AXIS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STRICT BOUNDARY BETWEEN DECENT SHOWER CHANCES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE AXIS AND LESSER THOUGH NOT ZERO CHANCES NORTH
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION AND WIDTH OF THE AXIS IS NOT VERY CLEAR.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN INTENSE ENOUGH...ON ORDER OF THIRD TO HALF INCH
OF RAIN IN 5-10 MINUTES...INTO THE EVENING FOR RISK OF AT LEAST
MINOR STREET FLOODING OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND HAVE ADDED MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. CLOUD SHIELD AND EXTRA DEWPOINTS
SHOULD KEEP MORE MILD MINIMUMS TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES ALL-IN-ALL.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A CONTINUATION OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS THE THEME IN THE EXTENDED...
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

ABUNDANT AND DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER
WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL OCCUR AS MOISTURE FROM ODILE
STREAMS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND SQUARELY ACROSS WEST TEXAS WHILE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
FEEDS NORTHWARD AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE TRICK WILL BE TIMING THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS NOT A TRIVIAL TASK.
GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE NOT ATTEMPTED TO GET TOO CUTE AND CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN SOLID CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA MAY BE MOST FAVORED FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/DEFORMATION ZONE REMAINS SITUATED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS. MORE FOCUSED AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS WHAT REMAINS OF THE CENTER OF ODILE TRACKS PAST...THOUGH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS TAKE ITS VORTICITY MAXIMUM JUST TO
OUR NORTH OF THE FA. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE EXPANDED AND INCREASED
POPS FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...BUT HAVE LEFT THEM JUST BELOW A
LIKELY MENTION AT THIS POINT. GIVEN ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY AND WE
HAVE ADDED THIS MENTION TO THE HWO.

A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE PASSING OF WHAT REMAINS OF ODILE ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BRIEFLY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES...THEN BRING
MODESTLY DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED
OFF ON THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRYING IT WAS SHOWING EARLIER...THOUGH
THERE WILL BE MID-LEVEL DRYING REGARDLESS. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH LOW RAIN CHANCES COULD PERSIST ON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE RAIN CHANCES AGAIN. WE HAVE
DECIDED NOT TO RAISE POPS INTO MENTIONABLE LEVELS BEYOND
SUNDAY JUST YET...BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO KEEP THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
MUTED...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE LOWS AND BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAD THIS WELL IN HAND AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  60  78  61 /  20  20  30  30  40
TULIA         63  82  62  81  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     64  77  63  78  63 /  30  30  40  40  40
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  64 /  20  30  30  30  40
DENVER CITY   64  78  63  76  63 /  30  50  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    65  79  64  78  64 /  30  40  40  40  40
CHILDRESS     68  88  67  86  67 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  66  83  65 /  20  30  30  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  86  69  84  68 /  30  30  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23
863
FXUS64 KLUB 161722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST WITH MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TODAY. WEAK
DEFORMATION AXIS ALOFT WILL FAVOR BEST SHOWER AND THUNDER CHANCES
SOUTH OF KCDS TODAY...AND LIKELY JUST SOUTHWEST OF KLBB AS WELL
THOUGH A CLOSER CALL HERE. SURFACE FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT
PERHAPS ADVECTING TOWARDS KLBB. ADDED A LOW SCATTERED CLOUD
TOMORROW MORNING TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING BY 18Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED TS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES SW OF KLBB. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FCST
WILL REMOVE SHOWER MENTION AND REEVALUATE AT 18Z ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  81  60  79  61 /  20  20  20  30  40
TULIA         62  83  62  80  63 /  20  20  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  81  62  79  62 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  78  63  78  64 /  20  30  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       66  79  65  79  65 /  20  30  20  40  30
DENVER CITY   65  76  63  76  64 /  30  50  40  40  40
BROWNFIELD    66  78  65  78  65 /  20  40  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     67  86  66  86  66 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          67  83  67  82  66 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  84  69  84  68 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
096
FXUS64 KLUB 161131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH CIGS LIFTING BY 18Z. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED -SHRA AND ISOLATED TS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO KEEP PRIMARY RAIN
CHANCES SW OF KLBB. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN FIRST 9 HOURS OF THE FCST
WILL REMOVE SHOWER MENTION AND REEVALUATE AT 18Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

RB/TL
594
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
594
FXUS64 KLUB 160849
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
ODILE WILL MOVE SLOWLY UP THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TODAY WITH
ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EWD FROM IT. MODELS
PROG A MODEST UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTING ACROSS SRN NEW MEXICO.
IT IS HARD TO VERIFY THAT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE MOISTURE
DOWNSTREAM FROM ODILE. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BE WORKING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK...
THE JET STREAK MOVING FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SEWD OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PULL UP
STATIONARY ACROSS THE FCST THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT WITH
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS RETURNING THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
INTO THE EVENING WITH BEST LIFT OVER THE SWRN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES
FAVORING HIGHEST POPS THERE WHILE THE NERN ZONES GETTING THE SHORT
END OF THE STICK...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INGREDIENTS THERE TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE IN THE FCST. PROGGED MLCAPE VALUES THIS AFTN MAINLY IN A
RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG BUT SPREAD OUT FAIRLY EVENLY THROUGH THE
TROPOSPHERE WITH A NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDING SUGGESTS SHOWERS
FAVORED BUT THUNDER NOT RULED OUT. FINALLY...WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS BUT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT WILL BE LEAST
LIKELY TO WORK OUT ACROSS THE NERN ZONES WHERE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TO BE THINNEST AND RAIN CHANCES THE LEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE DOMINATING ACROSS THE GULF REGION IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
WEST TO NEAR FAR SWRN TX/NERN OLD MEXICO BY MID-WEEK...THUS CAUSING
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TO MOVE NNE ACROSS THE DESERT SW. OUR PERSISTENT
FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL GO UNDISTURBED...AS PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSLATED AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE REGION...AND MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CAUSE PWATS TO GO ON THE RISE /1.20-1.80
INCHES BY MID-WEEK/. ODILE IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT BY WESTERLIES
ALOFT...AND EVOLVE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLES REGION BY LATE WEEK. THUS...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE...COUPLED WITH A PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK /HIGHEST POPS NOTED THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION/. WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP EXITS THE REGION IS A BIT
QUESTIONABLE AS LONG TERM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S
SPEED. THE GFS QUICKLY PUSHES THE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
EAST OF THE FA BY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE IMPINGEMENT OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL CLEAR THE SRN ZONES BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE GFS
SOLUTION SHOWS THIS FRONT BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIP...THOUGH THE SRN
AND ERN ZONES ARE HIGHLY FAVORED. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND IS A
TAD SLOWER...AS THE DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO
THE GFS...BUT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IS EXPANDED TO THE ENTIRE CWA. THE
ECMWF IN GENERAL TENDS TO BE A BIT BETTER IN PREDICTING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM THAN THE GFS.
THUS...WILL ELECT TO MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN.

HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL. AS SUCH...SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  61  81  60  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
TULIA         78  62  83  62  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     78  63  81  62  79 /  30  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     76  65  78  63  78 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       78  66  79  65  79 /  40  20  30  20  40
DENVER CITY   73  65  76  63  76 /  40  30  50  40  40
BROWNFIELD    75  66  78  65  78 /  40  20  40  30  40
CHILDRESS     83  67  86  66  86 /  20  20  20  20  20
SPUR          81  67  83  67  82 /  40  20  30  20  30
ASPERMONT     83  70  84  69  84 /  40  20  30  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29
347
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
347
FXUS64 KLUB 160442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE WAS HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF LOW
CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS...WHERE WE HAVE ADDED A TEMPO MVFR
GROUP. WE HAVE KEPT KLBB VFR FOR NOW...HOWEVER AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED. SCATTERED -TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY IMPACT KLBB...WITH A
LOWER LIKELIHOOD AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
605
FXUS64 KLUB 160219 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
919 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
CWA...ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS...WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE. WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND REMOVED
THUNDER MENTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT IN OUR SRN COUNTIES...OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/31
394
FXUS64 KLUB 152341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS....BUT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER CEILINGS AND ALSO BRIEF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH SHRA OR TSRA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT IN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH EITHER TERMINAL BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. ALSO...SOME LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUES MORNING
BUT WE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS DUE TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  66  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
543
FXUS64 KLUB 152033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF TODAY BUT CLOUD BASES HAVE
GRADUALLY LIFTED.  A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE
EVEN SEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WHILE MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
HAS BEEN SOCKED IN WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. FURTHER NORTH...COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT IS RAPIDLY
LOSING MOMENTUM AND HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS
MORNING.  MODELS GRADUALLY SLIDE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING IT OUT AFTER SUNRISE.  ANOTHER CHANGE IS THAT MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  LOOKING AT VARIOUS POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE MODELS...THERE
IS ANYWHERE FROM 500-1250 J/KG SBCAPE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CAP BY THE AFTERNOON.  LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE LIFT WILL
BE AVAILABLE EITHER TO HELP INITIATE STORMS SO COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO THE LOW END OF SCATTERED AT BEST.  THERE IS A POSSIBLE
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS SUNRISE TUESDAY BUT THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT IMPACT POP CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING.  ONLY
DIFFERENCE MAY BE A FEW COOLER SPOTS WHEREVER RAINFALL CAN DEVELOP.
HIGHS TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET
ANY KIND OF INSOLATION BUT PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SHOWS THAT THIS WILL
BE HARD TO ACHIEVE.  KEPT TEMPS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY.

JORDAN


&&

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.
MOISTURE FROM THIS PREVIOUS WEEKENDS RAINFALL STILL LINGERS AROUND
THE FA WHILE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO
WEST TX. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL COME FROM A LOBE
OF VORTICITY THAT PINCHES OFF FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND SETTLES OVER
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THE ONLY OTHER LIFT BEFORE THE FROPA LATER THIS
WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MID WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL JET. WITH THAT SAID THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS VERY ABUNDANT. AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...PWATS RARELY GO BELOW 1.6 INCHES AND
REGULARLY STAY AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER SLIGHTLY
ON TIMING BUT THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES PRE FROPA OCCUR BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS ODILE IS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

ONE OF THE BIGGER QUESTIONS THAT REMAINS IS THE TIMING OF THE FROPA
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD FRONT
AND SWIFTLY PUSHES IT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING LEAVING
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT BY
HAVING IT SPEND THE NIGHT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE FULLY MOVING THROUGH THE FA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY. THIS
WOULD PROVIDE MORE TIME TO ALLOW SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AIDED
WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. FOR THE TIME BEING I HAVE STAYED IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH A SLIGHT LEAN TO THE ECMWF. DESPITE  THE
DIFFERENCES...THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE CLOUDY PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  79  61  81  59 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         62  79  63  83  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     60  78  63  81  61 /  30  30  20  20  10
LEVELLAND     61  77  63  78  63 /  40  40  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  77  65  79  64 /  40  40  20  30  20
DENVER CITY   62  77  63  76  63 /  40  40  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    61  78  64  78  64 /  40  40  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  68  86  66 /  30  30  20  20  20
SPUR          64  79  65  83  67 /  40  40  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     68  83  68  84  69 /  40  40  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/51
910
FXUS64 KLUB 151726 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF CYCLE. MVFR
CEILINGS AT BOTH KLBB AND KCDS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING AND MAY MAKE
IT TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. SKIES ARE TRYING TO CLEAR
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION AND SHOWERS/STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...TIMING AND LOCATION ARE VERY UNCERTAIN AND
COULD NOT PINPOINT A MORE FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS IN THE FIRST 6-9
HOURS OF THE TAFS. SECOND ISSUES IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SWING THE WIND AROUND TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND COULD BE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PREVAILING
TSRA GOING IN THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT AM UNSURE HOW LONG TO KEEP THEM
GOING. CEILINGS WILL ALSO RETURN TO THE MVFR RANGE WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF IFR IN AND AROUND ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT WILL KEEP
VFR FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED WANING -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. COMPUTER MODELS HINT
AT ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...WHICH
MAY AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A PROB30 FOR
THIS PLAUSIBILITY. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO NEAR KCDS AND PERHAPS BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
-SHRA/-TSRA FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
APPEARS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AND THEREFORE A PREVAILING MENTION
HAS BEEN INSERTING FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT MVFR
CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KLBB...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ODILE...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND ENDURING MOIST
LOW LEVELS /PWATS OF 1.30-1.60 INCHES/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
SFC...COURTESY OF YESTERDAY/S PASSING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE /AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY...AS IT EITHER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THUS EXITING THE FA OR THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY RE-GENERATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER OUTCOME...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN NOT BE IGNORED. FURTHERMORE...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVEN TEMP-DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 1-3 DEGREES C NOTED ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
SW WIND COMPONENT OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL AT BAY /ESPECIALLY IF THIS WIND COMPONENT DOES INDEED HOLD
UP/.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT/S SPEED AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ARE WHAT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH DECIPHERING. WITH THAT SAID...A BLEND OF CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA/RETREATING
NORTH THEREAFTER. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...COUPLED WITH THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BRIEF CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTN WILL ALSO AID IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS COMING INTO
FRUITION.

LONG TERM...
WILL BE TRENDING THE FORECAST WETTER AND COOLER THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES STILL IN THE PICTURE TUESDAY AS HURRICANE ODILE MOVES
UP BAJA CALIFORNIA KEEPING A TAP OF RICH MOISTURE DIRECTED EASTWARD...
AS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS...
AND AS AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF A RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL SEE A HIATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CNTL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES HELPING DRY SOME DRIER MID LEVEL SWD... IN TURN
SHUNTING THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM ODILE SWD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SWRN FCST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THERE.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LACK SOME
CLARITY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE PROGGED TO BE KICKED EWD AS A TROUGH COMES ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST IN TURN MOVING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY THEN TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW THURSDAY AND THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THAT
TIME FRAME. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THEN
COMING UP QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD KEEP SWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT THE HURRICANE
CENTER IS EXPECTING A DEPRESSION WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DEVELOP
INTO A NAMED STORM THAT WOULD THEN TRAVEL NWWD PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AND IN TURN ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WHICH WOULD
HELP HEIGHTEN PRECIP CHANCES BY ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND/OR AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG IN RELATION TO
RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANNOT PICK A DOWN PERIOD THIS WEEK AND HAVE
THUS INSERTED POPS INTO EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  59  78  61  81 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  60  78  63  83 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     80  61  77  63  81 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     80  62  76  63  78 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  64  76  65  79 /  20  40  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   80  63  76  63  76 /  20  40  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  63  77  64  78 /  20  40  40  30  30
CHILDRESS     83  65  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  20  20
SPUR          82  65  78  65  83 /  30  40  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  67  82  68  84 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
556
FXUS64 KLUB 151121
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED WANING -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KCDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. COMPUTER MODELS HINT
AT ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING...WHICH
MAY AFFECT BOTH TAF SITES. HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A PROB30 FOR
THIS PLAUSIBILITY. THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO NEAR KCDS AND PERHAPS BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
-SHRA/-TSRA FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY
APPEARS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE AND THEREFORE A PREVAILING MENTION
HAS BEEN INSERTING FOR BOTH TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...FEW-SCT MVFR
CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KLBB...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ODILE...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND ENDURING MOIST
LOW LEVELS /PWATS OF 1.30-1.60 INCHES/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
SFC...COURTESY OF YESTERDAY/S PASSING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE /AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY...AS IT EITHER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THUS EXITING THE FA OR THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY RE-GENERATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER OUTCOME...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN NOT BE IGNORED. FURTHERMORE...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVEN TEMP-DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 1-3 DEGREES C NOTED ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
SW WIND COMPONENT OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL AT BAY /ESPECIALLY IF THIS WIND COMPONENT DOES INDEED HOLD
UP/.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT/S SPEED AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ARE WHAT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH DECIPHERING. WITH THAT SAID...A BLEND OF CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA/RETREATING
NORTH THEREAFTER. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...COUPLED WITH THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BRIEF CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTN WILL ALSO AID IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS COMING INTO
FRUITION.

LONG TERM...
WILL BE TRENDING THE FORECAST WETTER AND COOLER THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES STILL IN THE PICTURE TUESDAY AS HURRICANE ODILE MOVES
UP BAJA CALIFORNIA KEEPING A TAP OF RICH MOISTURE DIRECTED EASTWARD...
AS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS...
AND AS AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF A RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL SEE A HIATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CNTL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES HELPING DRY SOME DRIER MID LEVEL SWD... IN TURN
SHUNTING THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM ODILE SWD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SWRN FCST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THERE.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LACK SOME
CLARITY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE PROGGED TO BE KICKED EWD AS A TROUGH COMES ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST IN TURN MOVING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY THEN TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW THURSDAY AND THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THAT
TIME FRAME. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THEN
COMING UP QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD KEEP SWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT THE HURRICANE
CENTER IS EXPECTING A DEPRESSION WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DEVELOP
INTO A NAMED STORM THAT WOULD THEN TRAVEL NWWD PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AND IN TURN ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WHICH WOULD
HELP HEIGHTEN PRECIP CHANCES BY ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND/OR AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG IN RELATION TO
RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANNOT PICK A DOWN PERIOD THIS WEEK AND HAVE
THUS INSERTED POPS INTO EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  59  78  61  81 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  60  78  63  83 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     80  61  77  63  81 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     80  62  76  63  78 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  64  76  66  79 /  20  40  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   80  63  76  63  76 /  20  40  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  63  77  64  78 /  20  40  40  30  30
CHILDRESS     83  65  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  20  20
SPUR          82  65  78  65  83 /  30  40  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  67  82  68  84 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
348
FXUS64 KLUB 150758
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
258 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE ODILE...CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...LEADING TO BKN-OVC SKY COVER AND ENDURING MOIST
LOW LEVELS /PWATS OF 1.30-1.60 INCHES/. LOOKING CLOSER AT THE
SFC...COURTESY OF YESTERDAY/S PASSING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE /AND
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS/...LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS PER
0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WRT THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PRECIP ACTIVITY...AS IT EITHER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THUS EXITING THE FA OR THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY WANE AS ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY RE-GENERATES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL TEND TO LEAN
TOWARDS THE LATTER OUTCOME...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN NOT BE IGNORED. FURTHERMORE...WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOK OUT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING...GIVEN TEMP-DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS OF 1-3 DEGREES C NOTED ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT
SW WIND COMPONENT OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS COULD KEEP FOG
POTENTIAL AT BAY /ESPECIALLY IF THIS WIND COMPONENT DOES INDEED HOLD
UP/.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS EVENING...AS THE FRONT/S SPEED AND WHETHER OR
NOT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ARE WHAT MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD
TIME WITH DECIPHERING. WITH THAT SAID...A BLEND OF CONSENSUS APPEARS
TO BE IN ORDER WHICH LEADS TO THE COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE NRN
ZONES BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...AND WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA/RETREATING
NORTH THEREAFTER. THIS FRONT COULD SERVE AS A MESOSCALE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...COUPLED WITH THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. DESPITE THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY /UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THE CAPROCK TO LOWER 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. AS IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BRIEF CLOUD BREAKS DURING
THE AFTN WILL ALSO AID IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS COMING INTO
FRUITION.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WILL BE TRENDING THE FORECAST WETTER AND COOLER THIS MORNING. GOOD
RAIN CHANCES STILL IN THE PICTURE TUESDAY AS HURRICANE ODILE MOVES
UP BAJA CALIFORNIA KEEPING A TAP OF RICH MOISTURE DIRECTED EASTWARD...
AS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS...
AND AS AN UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS SOUTH OF A RETREATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEDNESDAY SHOULD STILL SEE A HIATUS FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND CNTL
ROCKIES AMPLIFIES HELPING DRY SOME DRIER MID LEVEL SWD... IN TURN
SHUNTING THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM ODILE SWD. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SWRN FCST AREA WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES THERE.

THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO LACK SOME
CLARITY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN...BUT
CONSISTENCY AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE ARE PROGGED TO BE KICKED EWD AS A TROUGH COMES ONTO THE
PACIFIC COAST IN TURN MOVING THE ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE EWD ONTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY THEN TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. AS THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DESERT SW THURSDAY AND THE
PANHANDLE FRIDAY SHOULD SEE A WET PERIOD ACROSS THE FCST AREA THAT
TIME FRAME. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST COAST TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS THEN
COMING UP QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE DURATION OF THE WEEKEND. THAT
WOULD KEEP SWLY WINDS ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC. QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT THE HURRICANE
CENTER IS EXPECTING A DEPRESSION WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO DEVELOP
INTO A NAMED STORM THAT WOULD THEN TRAVEL NWWD PARALLEL TO THE
MEXICAN COAST AND IN TURN ADDING MORE MOISTURE TO THE AREA...PER
THE GFS IN PARTICULAR. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL WHICH WOULD
HELP HEIGHTEN PRECIP CHANCES BY ADDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND/OR AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT. STILL A LOT THAT COULD GO WRONG IN RELATION TO
RAIN CHANCES...BUT CANNOT PICK A DOWN PERIOD THIS WEEK AND HAVE
THUS INSERTED POPS INTO EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        79  59  78  61  81 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         80  60  78  63  83 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     80  61  77  63  81 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     80  62  76  63  78 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       80  64  76  65  79 /  20  40  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   80  63  76  63  76 /  20  40  40  30  30
BROWNFIELD    80  63  77  64  78 /  20  40  40  30  30
CHILDRESS     83  65  82  68  86 /  30  40  30  20  20
SPUR          82  65  78  65  83 /  30  40  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     83  67  82  68  84 /  30  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
545
FXUS64 KLUB 150449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014


.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY FORECAST IS TRICKY FOR THIS MORNING. A NUMBER OF
MESONET SITES SOUTH AND WEST OF KLBB ARE INDICATING NEAR SATURATED
CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED JUST UNDER 10 SM BUT
SUSPECT THAT REDUCTIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN
SPITE OF SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH TENDS TO MITIGATE
FOG PRODUCTION ALONG WITH MODIFICATION OVER THE CITY. AT THIS
POINT...WILL CALL FOR LOW-END MVFR TO DEVELOP WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND...LOOKS
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...
CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO LOOK AT BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT SOME MESONET SITES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
LUBBOCK DOWN TO TWO DEGREES OR LESS. IN ADDITION...MESONET LEAF
WETNESS...WHICH IS A PROXY FOR FOG OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...HAS
STARTED TO SPIKE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD MENTION TO OVERNIGHT FOG
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
943
FXUS64 KLUB 150228
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
928 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
CONDITIONS ARE STARTING TO LOOK AT BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AT SOME MESONET SITES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
LUBBOCK DOWN TO TWO DEGREES OR LESS. IN ADDITION...MESONET LEAF
WETNESS...WHICH IS A PROXY FOR FOG OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION...HAS
STARTED TO SPIKE. THEREFORE...WILL ADD MENTION TO OVERNIGHT FOG
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED...PROSPECTS INCREASING FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB THOUGH
FCST REMAINS TRICKY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT TYPICALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THOUGH WITH THE COPIOUS GROUND
MOISTURE...THIS CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL FOR BEING A NON-TYPICAL
SITUATION. MESONET OBSERVATIONS SHOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS DROPPING
QUICKLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE KLBB TERMINAL AND WILL CONTINUE
ANALYSIS. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR VISIBILITY
WILL DROP.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
211
FXUS64 KLUB 142334
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE KLBB TERMINAL WITH
SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE NIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY COME INTO
PLAY LATER THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME BRIEFLY LOWER
CONDITIONS DUE INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AT KCDS...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
332
FXUS64 KLUB 142033
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO BREAK OUT OF THE 60S TODAY WHERE
LOW STRATUS WAS PREVALENT WHICH WAS MOST OF THE CAPROCK. OFF THE
CAPROCK...WHERE LESS LOW STRATUS WAS OBSERVED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A SHORTWAVE WAS OBSERVED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING NORTH OUT OF FAR WEST TEXAS INTO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GFS IS BY FAR THE MOST OPTIMISTIC WITH
PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WERE SEEN IN THE GFS WITH
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH
OTHER MODELS DO SHOW SOME SORT OF SIMILAR FIELDS RESULTING IN
INCREASING LIFT...IT DOES NOT TRANSLATE TO MUCH PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TODAY. MODELS HAVE
NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THIS EVENING.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED ANY SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WAS PROGGED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WHICH WAS MOSTLY DUE TO THE NEARLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS. MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM INTO THE REGION COURTESY
OF HURRICANE ODILE OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO. THIS RESULTED
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 150-200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH THE INTERACTION
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY EARLY IN THE EVENING...MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE FRONT ON OUR DOORSTEP. BECAUSE OF
THIS...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOLUTIONS DO NOT EXACTLY INSPIRE ANY
CONFIDENCE IN WHAT EXACTLY WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES.
CLOUD COVER AGAIN WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LESS CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY.
BIGGEST CHANGE IS THAT THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT BREAKING OFF A
LOBE OF INCREASED VORTICITY OFF OF ODILE AND BRINGING THAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. THIS LOOKS TO ENHANCE LIFT A BIT LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS
MAY HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE ABOVE THE CAP. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS
ARE STRUGGLING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW ON
HOW THEY ARE HANDLING THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
AMPLE MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT AND ANY AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE MAY BE ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING.

12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED AGREEMENT WITH HOW
THINGS MAY UNFOLD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A TROF SWINGING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PHASES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS WILL HELP SWING A SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDE FOR QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER. REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE
AREA AT SOME POINT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SEVERAL OTHER
WEAKER WAVES AHEAD OF THAT STARTING AS EARLY AS THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING OF THESE WAVES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AND HELD OFF INCREASING POPS FOR NOW. PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPS AND DID NOT NEED TO MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THOSE EITHER.

JORDAN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  79  58  79  60 /  20  20  30  20  20
TULIA         59  80  60  78  62 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     59  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     60  80  61  78  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       61  80  63  79  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   59  80  61  77  63 /  20  30  40  40  20
BROWNFIELD    60  80  62  76  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     65  83  65  83  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
SPUR          63  82  64  81  65 /  20  30  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     66  83  67  84  67 /  20  20  40  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
580
FXUS64 KLUB 141719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
A BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NOT HANDLED BY THE MODELS WILL MOVE INTO
THE KLBB TERMINAL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS
REPORT LIFR CIGS ALONG WITH MVFR VISBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...AFTER THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PASS...MVFR
CIGS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VISBYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION ANY REDUCTIONS IN THE TAF FOR TONIGHT. CHANCES ARE HIGH
THAT KCDS WILL REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BUT THERE IS
A CHANCE AT REDUCED CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
-SHRA HAS PASSED ACROSS KLBB EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
-SHRA NOTED WELL SOUTH OF THE SAID TAF SITE. THE -SHRA ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH COULD AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND PROMOTES ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES. HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES...KEYING
IN ON KLBB RECEIVING IT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS VFR FOG. COULD SEE
THIS PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER...SCT MVFR DECKS
WILL BE COMMON BEFORE RISING TO LOW VFR DECKS BY THE EVENING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING AT KCDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND RISING TO LOW VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS AIDING IN CONTINUING THE ERN
PACIFIC FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
HURRICANE ODILE AS WELL. AS SUCH...MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED
IN PLACE...WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS PROMOTES ENDURING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES/. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A
MODERATELY STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
GENERALLY CARVING A PATH FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL
LIKELY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE RAINFALL...WITH THUNDER BEING A
POTENTIAL DUE TO DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IN FACT...RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS...WHICH IS A PROMISING
SIGN FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT...WHICH FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTN. THESE BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW
SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY /70S ON THE CAPROCK TO 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND S-SW SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT /UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.

LONG TERM...
RAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. 00Z NAM BEGINNING TO FAVOR SHIFTING
PRECIP MORE QUICKLY SWD TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS
AMPLIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHING DRIER AIR SWD WHILE THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF SOME OF THE ERN
PACIFIC DEEP MOISTURE. STILL...A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME
UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT POINTS TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE AND A FURTHER
NUDGING OF POPS UPWARDS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS THAT TAKES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE WEEK. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF
ODILE. THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FCST
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH
MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND PASS ON INSERTING POPS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT AND ROLE OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE LATE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        57  80  58  80  60 /  20  20  20  20  20
TULIA         59  81  60  80  62 /  20  20  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     60  81  61  80  62 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     59  81  61  80  62 /  20  30  40  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  81  63  80  66 /  20  30  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   60  81  61  79  63 /  20  30  40  30  20
BROWNFIELD    61  81  62  80  62 /  20  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     64  84  65  84  67 /  30  20  30  30  20
SPUR          63  83  64  82  65 /  20  30  40  30  20
ASPERMONT     66  84  67  84  67 /  20  30  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
315
FXUS64 KLUB 141120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
-SHRA HAS PASSED ACROSS KLBB EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL
-SHRA NOTED WELL SOUTH OF THE SAID TAF SITE. THE -SHRA ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH COULD AFFECT KLBB LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A MENTION ATTM. CONFIDENCE
INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND PROMOTES ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-TSRA CHANCES. HAVE
INSERTED A PROB30 FOR THIS POSSIBILITY AT BOTH TAF SITES...KEYING
IN ON KLBB RECEIVING IT LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING AND MORE SO THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AT KCDS. OTHERWISE...IFR CLOUD DECKS HAVE
DEVELOPED AT KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS VFR FOG. COULD SEE
THIS PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING WHERE THEREAFTER...SCT MVFR DECKS
WILL BE COMMON BEFORE RISING TO LOW VFR DECKS BY THE EVENING.
COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT MVFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPING AT KCDS LATER
THIS MORNING...AND RISING TO LOW VFR BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS AIDING IN CONTINUING THE ERN
PACIFIC FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
HURRICANE ODILE AS WELL. AS SUCH...MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED
IN PLACE...WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS PROMOTES ENDURING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES/. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A
MODERATELY STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
GENERALLY CARVING A PATH FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL
LIKELY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE RAINFALL...WITH THUNDER BEING A
POTENTIAL DUE TO DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IN FACT...RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS...WHICH IS A PROMISING
SIGN FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT...WHICH FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTN. THESE BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW
SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY /70S ON THE CAPROCK TO 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND S-SW SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT /UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.

LONG TERM...
RAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. 00Z NAM BEGINNING TO FAVOR SHIFTING
PRECIP MORE QUICKLY SWD TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS
AMPLIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHING DRIER AIR SWD WHILE THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF SOME OF THE ERN
PACIFIC DEEP MOISTURE. STILL...A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME
UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT POINTS TO INCRESING CONFIDENCE AND A FURTHER
NUDGING OF POPS UPWARDS...PATICULARLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS THAT TAKES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE WEEK. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF
ODILE. THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FCST
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH
MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND PASS ON INSERTING POPS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT AND ROLE OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE LATE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  57  80  58  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
TULIA         78  59  81  60  80 /  20  20  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     74  59  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
LUBBOCK       75  62  81  64  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
DENVER CITY   71  60  81  61  79 /  30  20  30  40  30
BROWNFIELD    74  61  81  62  80 /  30  20  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     81  64  84  65  84 /  10  30  20  30  30
SPUR          78  63  83  64  82 /  20  20  30  40  30
ASPERMONT     80  66  84  67  84 /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
441
FXUS64 KLUB 140846
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
346 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THUS AIDING IN CONTINUING THE ERN
PACIFIC FETCH OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
HURRICANE ODILE AS WELL. AS SUCH...MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINED
IN PLACE...WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS PROMOTES ENDURING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.50 INCHES/. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A
MODERATELY STRONG EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE SWRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UA RIDGE TO ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
GENERALLY CARVING A PATH FROM THE SWRN ZONES TO ACROSS THE NERN
ZONES. WITH ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE...IT WILL
LIKELY NOT TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE RAINFALL...WITH THUNDER BEING A
POTENTIAL DUE TO DECENT MID-UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY THE
DISTURBANCE. IN FACT...RATHER LIGHT RADAR ECHOES WERE NOTED ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 0730Z RADAR ANALYSIS...WHICH IS A PROMISING
SIGN FOR PRECIP CHANCES LATER TODAY. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS THE FAR WRN AND SWRN ZONES THIS AFTN...AND
ALSO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT...WHICH FOLLOWS THE PATH OF THE
ANTICIPATED DISTURBANCE.

ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREAKS IN THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY
LATE AFTN. THESE BREAKS IN CLOUDS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW
SFC WINDS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER DAY /70S ON THE CAPROCK TO 80S OFF
THE CAPROCK/. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND S-SW SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT /UPPER 50S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE...BUT CERTAINLY LOOKING
LIKE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THAT TIME FRAME. 00Z NAM BEGINNING TO FAVOR SHIFTING
PRECIP MORE QUICKLY SWD TUESDAY AS UPPER FLOW OVER THE CONUS
AMPLIFIES WITH A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER FLOW OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS PUSHING DRIER AIR SWD WHILE THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SW ATTEMPTS TO CUT OFF SOME OF THE ERN
PACIFIC DEEP MOISTURE. STILL...A PERIOD OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH SOME
UPPER JET INTERACTION AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT POINTS TO INCRESING CONFIDENCE AND A FURTHER
NUDGING OF POPS UPWARDS...PATICULARLY FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA.

OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS
ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BE. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND GFS THAT TAKES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTL
PLAINS VERY LATE IN THE WEEK. SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO LINGER ACROSS THE DESERT SW...POSSIBLY ABSORBING REMNANTS OF
ODILE. THAT POTENTIALLY COULD BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE FCST
AREA FOR THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH
MODEL INCONSISTENCY WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY AND PASS ON INSERTING POPS ATTM.

TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A BIT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING EXTENT AND ROLE OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY THEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS PATTERN AND
MAGNITUDE LATE WEEK. HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A BLEND OF RAW
MODEL OUTPUT AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OF MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        76  57  80  58  80 /  30  20  20  20  20
TULIA         78  59  81  60  80 /  20  20  20  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  60  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     74  59  81  61  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
LUBBOCK       75  62  81  63  80 /  20  20  30  40  30
DENVER CITY   71  60  81  61  79 /  30  20  30  40  30
BROWNFIELD    74  61  81  62  80 /  30  20  30  40  40
CHILDRESS     81  64  84  65  84 /  10  30  20  30  30
SPUR          78  63  83  64  82 /  20  20  30  40  30
ASPERMONT     80  66  84  67  84 /  20  20  30  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
179
FXUS64 KLUB 140401
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1101 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014


.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IFR CONDITIONS AT
KLBB LOOKING MORE LIKELY WITH CEILING PROBABLY REMAINING IN THE
5OO TO 1000 FT RANGE. AT THIS POINT...BEST IFR CHANCES WILL BE
AFTER 07Z THOUGH AN EARIER ONSET IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS LOOK TO
IMPROVE AROUND MID SUNDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. KCDS LOOKS TO PRIMARILY
REMAIN VFR THOUGH AN EXCURSION INTO MVFR TERRITORY IS POSSIBLE
TOWARD SUNRISE.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SUNDAY WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED TO ANOTHER RAW DAY TODAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
THE DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
UNTIL THEN...LIFT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL GARNER SOME RETURN OF INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH CAPES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MODELS PROG
INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE SHOWN TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING INTO THAT AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
MODELS TAKE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND ROTATE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP SOME AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE. COVERAGE IN THE MODELS IS A
BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ROUGH TRACK OF
THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE 12Z RUNS...
THE NAM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING BUT WEAKER WITH THE PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO MIX OUT LATE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE DEEP TROF FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST AND THE SLOWLY MOVING HURRICANE ODILE. RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST OF US BY THURSDAY BUT BEYOND THAT MODELS ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW IT HAD IN THE 00Z RUN AND KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE/CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS NOW FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SWINGS A TROF OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY THE SAME TIME FRAME...OPPOSITE OF THE 06Z RUN.
SO...LEFT LAST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ALONE UNTIL WE SEE HOW
THINGS UNFOLD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  77  57  79  58 /  10  20  10  30  30
TULIA         52  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     53  77  60  81  60 /  10  10  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  75  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       57  76  62  80  63 /  10  20  20  20  40
DENVER CITY   55  70  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    55  73  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     58  81  64  84  64 /  10  10  20  30  40
SPUR          57  77  63  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  40
ASPERMONT     58  80  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
708
FXUS64 KLUB 132345
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILING FCST A BIT TRICKY AT KLBB THIS CYCLE. MOIST NEAR SURFACE
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ONTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THERE APPEARS TO
BE ABOUT A 30 PCT PROBABILITY THAT FLIGHT RULES WILL DROP TO LIFR
THOUGH THE CURRENT DATA SUGGEST THAT MVFR APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO
PERSIST. GIVEN THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF MVFR...WILL STEER THAT
WAY FOR THE TIME BEING THOUGH IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTS
ALOFT...SOME DRIZZLE COULD BRING THINGS DOWN IN A HURRY. BOTTOM
LINE...VFR OPERATIONS SHOULD CONDUCT OPERATIONS SOONER THAN LATER
THIS EVENING AND LOW...BUT NON-ZERO POTENTIAL EXIST FOR IFR
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SUNDAY WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED TO ANOTHER RAW DAY TODAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
THE DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
UNTIL THEN...LIFT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL GARNER SOME RETURN OF INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH CAPES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MODELS PROG
INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE SHOWN TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING INTO THAT AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME TOMORROW.

LONG TERM...
MODELS TAKE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND ROTATE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP SOME AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE. COVERAGE IN THE MODELS IS A
BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ROUGH TRACK OF
THE PROGGED SHORTWAVE.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE 12Z RUNS...
THE NAM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING BUT WEAKER WITH THE PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO MIX OUT LATE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE DEEP TROF FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST AND THE SLOWLY MOVING HURRICANE ODILE. RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST OF US BY THURSDAY BUT BEYOND THAT MODELS ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW IT HAD IN THE 00Z RUN AND KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE/CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS NOW FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SWINGS A TROF OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY THE SAME TIME FRAME...OPPOSITE OF THE 06Z RUN.
SO...LEFT LAST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ALONE UNTIL WE SEE HOW
THINGS UNFOLD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  77  57  79  58 /  10  20  10  30  30
TULIA         52  79  59  81  59 /  10  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     53  77  60  81  60 /  10  10  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  75  60  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       57  76  62  80  63 /  10  20  20  20  40
DENVER CITY   55  70  61  81  62 /  10  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    55  73  62  81  63 /  10  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     58  81  64  84  64 /  10  10  20  30  40
SPUR          57  77  63  84  66 /  10  10  20  30  40
ASPERMONT     58  80  66  85  67 /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
847
FXUS64 KLUB 132028
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SUNDAY WILL FEEL PLEASANT COMPARED TO ANOTHER RAW DAY TODAY. THERE
WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY FORCING FOR THE REST OF TODAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE MAY STILL OCCUR THIS EVENING BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY.
THE DAYTIME TOMORROW WILL ROUGHLY BE THE SAME AS TODAY WITH
POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WITH THIS SHORT WAVE WILL NOT LIKELY
AFFECT THE AREA UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TOMORROW.
UNTIL THEN...LIFT WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL GARNER SOME RETURN OF INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH CAPES
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK WITH THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS. MODELS PROG
INSTABILITY VALUES ON THE ORDER OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA ARE SHOWN TO BE STRONGLY CAPPED
WITH LOW STRATUS HANGING INTO THAT AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
MODELS TAKE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND ROTATE
IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP ERODE THE
AFOREMENTIONED CAP SOME AND A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE
EXTRA LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE. COVERAGE IN THE MODELS IS A
BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HOW WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COINCIDES WITH A ROUGH TRACK OF
THE FORECASTED SHORTWAVE.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH THE MODELS ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. OUT OF THE 12Z RUNS...
THE NAM WAS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
ECMWF WAS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TIMING BUT WEAKER WITH THE PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THE
FRONT STARTING TO MIX OUT LATE TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL START
TO TAPER OFF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS STRUGGLE
WITH WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE DEEP TROF FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST AND THE SLOWLY MOVING HURRICANE ODILE. RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO THE WEST OF US BY THURSDAY BUT BEYOND THAT MODELS ARE
REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE. ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE APPROACH OF THE CLOSED LOW IT HAD IN THE 00Z RUN AND KEEP
THE RIDGE IN PLACE/CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. GFS NOW FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND SWINGS A TROF OUT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES BY THE SAME TIME FRAME...OPPOSITE OF THE 06Z RUN.
SO...LEFT LAST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST ALONE UNTIL WE SEE HOW
THINGS UNFOLD.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  51  77  57  79 /  20  10  20  10  30
TULIA         67  52  79  59  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     64  53  77  60  81 /  10  10  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     64  55  75  60  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  57  76  62  80 /  20  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   63  55  70  61  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    63  55  73  62  81 /  20  10  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     69  58  81  64  84 /  10  10  10  20  30
SPUR          64  57  77  63  84 /  10  10  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     66  58  80  66  85 /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
684
FXUS64 KLUB 131708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS FINALLY BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT TO THE KLBB TERMINAL BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL
THEN...KLBB WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS. LOW CIGS MAY
RETURN TONIGHT AT KLBB BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING MUCH DISAGREEMENT
WITH THIS REGARD DEPICTING ANYWHERE BETWEEN VFR TO LIFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW-OVC CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL MAKE A RETURN
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
STRUGGLING TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL OPT TO NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
ATTM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF -RA/-DZ OCCURRING AT KLBB TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        52  78  57  78  58 /  10  10  10  30  30
TULIA         53  78  59  80  59 /  10  10  10  20  30
PLAINVIEW     54  77  60  80  60 /  10  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     55  76  60  80  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
LUBBOCK       56  77  62  79  63 /  10  10  10  20  30
DENVER CITY   57  75  61  80  62 /  10  10  10  20  30
BROWNFIELD    57  77  62  80  63 /  10  10  10  20  30
CHILDRESS     57  81  64  83  64 /  10  10  10  30  30
SPUR          58  79  63  83  66 /  10  10  10  30  30
ASPERMONT     59  80  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
629
FXUS64 KLUB 131540
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1040 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE NEW 12Z GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWS TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLOW
WARMING TREND EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE MAY SEE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW-OVC CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL MAKE A RETURN
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
STRUGGLING TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL OPT TO NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
ATTM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF -RA/-DZ OCCURRING AT KLBB TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         67  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     64  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       63  56  77  62  79 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   63  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    63  57  77  62  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     69  57  81  64  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          64  58  79  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     66  59  80  66  84 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
754
FXUS64 KLUB 131120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
FEW-OVC CLOUD DECKS HAVE PERSISTED AT BOTH TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR MOST OF THE TAF
CYCLE...WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CLOUD DECKS WILL MAKE A RETURN
OVERNIGHT. -SHRA WERE NOTED SOUTH OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
STRUGGLING TO MAKE HEADWAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. WILL OPT TO NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE TAF
ATTM...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF -RA/-DZ OCCURRING AT KLBB TODAY.
OTHERWISE...NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH BY THE
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         65  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     65  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       65  57  77  62  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  57  77  62  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  57  81  64  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          66  58  79  63  83 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     68  59  80  66  84 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
935
FXUS64 KLUB 130748
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         65  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     65  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       65  56  77  62  79 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  57  77  62  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  57  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          66  58  79  63  84 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     68  59  80  66  86 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
935
FXUS64 KLUB 130748
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
248 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH TO ACROSS FAR SOUTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE INTERMITTENT GUSTY
N-NE SFC WINDS. DESPITE FLEETING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LINGERING
LIGHT SHOWERS ENSUED MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN-HALF OF THE CWA LIKELY
DUE TO A PERSISTENT FETCH OF ERN PACIFIC MID-UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE...AS WELL AS MODEST /ALBEIT SLIGHTLY DECLINED/ LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.20-1.40 INCHES/. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT PRECIP TO STICK AROUND THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO
BORDER NEAREST TO WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE WSW FLOW
ALOFT. PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED THE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO BRIEFLY SCATTER OUT A BIT BY LATE AFTN...WHILST THE SFC
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION MAKING WAY FOR A WEAK NEARBY SFC
TROUGH. THE RESULT WILL BE SFC WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH THUS
ENCOURAGING TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S /WHICH IS
STILL APPROX 20 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. TONIGHT...THE RETURN OF LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH SRLY SFC FLOW WILL CAUSE OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT /50S/.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS COMBINATION
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE...AND MODEST UPPER
DYNAMICS COURTESY OF SRN BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER THE
WRN CONUS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER LIKELY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL BRING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ADVECTING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR SWD WHILE THE RIDGE ALSO CUTS OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL CONNECTION TO ODILE IN THE ERN PACIFIC. WARMEST TEMPS
MAY COME VERY LATE IN THE WEEK WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN
THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...ROLLING THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE EWD
TOWARD WEST TEXAS. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FCST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE
WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE...MASSAGING POPS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AND TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  52  78  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  30
TULIA         65  53  78  59  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  54  77  60  80 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     65  55  76  60  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       65  56  77  62  79 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  57  75  61  80 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  57  77  62  81 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     68  57  81  64  85 /  10  10  10  10  30
SPUR          66  58  79  63  84 /  10  10  10  10  30
ASPERMONT     68  59  80  66  86 /  10  10  10  10  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/07
857
FXUS64 KLUB 130444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WHILE KLBB HAS SEEN VFR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY RETURN TO KLBB BY EARLY-MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  43  65  52  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  45  64  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  45  64  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  46  64  55  77 /  90  40  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  46  64  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  47  64  56  76 / 100  50  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  47  64  57  77 /  90  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  67  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  49  66  57  79 /  80  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  51  68  59  81 /  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
857
FXUS64 KLUB 130444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WHILE KLBB HAS SEEN VFR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY RETURN TO KLBB BY EARLY-MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  43  65  52  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  45  64  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  45  64  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  46  64  55  77 /  90  40  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  46  64  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  47  64  56  76 / 100  50  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  47  64  57  77 /  90  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  67  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  49  66  57  79 /  80  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  51  68  59  81 /  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
872
FXUS64 KLUB 122344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
BOTH SITES...BEFORE CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CRITERIA LATER
THIS EVENING AT KCDS. KLBB ON THE OTHER HAND WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
LIGHT RAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS. STILL EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
SATURDAY AT KLBB...BEFORE POTENTIALLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND
VEER SOUTHEASTERLY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  65  52  76  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         45  64  53  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  64  54  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  64  55  77  61 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       46  64  56  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  64  56  76  60 /  50  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  64  57  77  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     48  67  57  81  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          49  66  57  79  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  59  81  66 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
991
FXUS64 KLUB 122017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  65  52  76  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         45  64  53  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     45  64  54  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     46  64  55  77  61 /  40  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       46  64  56  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  64  56  76  60 /  50  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    47  64  57  77  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     48  67  57  81  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          49  66  57  79  64 /  30  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     51  68  59  81  66 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/14
141
FXUS64 KLUB 121717
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE KLBB
TERMINAL AND POINTS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER HAS
IMPROVED CONDITIONS AT KCDS TO MVFR AND IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. KLBB WILL
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER IFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH BRIEF CHANGES TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR CIGS. VISBYS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL THE EVENING WHEN VISBYS
AND CIGS UNDERGO SOME IMPROVEMENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
BKN-OVC IFR AND LIFR CLOUD DECKS DEVELOPED AT KCDS AND KLBB
RESPECTIVELY EARLY THIS MORNING. FURTHERMORE...MVFR FOG HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED AT BOTH TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RA WAS
MOVING ACROSS KCDS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHILST ISOLATED -SHRA SOUTH OF THE KLBB COULD POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE TERMINAL LEADING TO INTERMITTENT -SHRA. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS BOTH TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING LEADING TO N-NE
SFC WINDS AT 15-20 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RA. WILL
EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CLOUD DECKS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF
CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UA RIDGE WAS STRETCHED FROM THE SERN CONUS TO NEAR FAR SW TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SAID UA RIDGE HAS AIDED IN
TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER LEVEL EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH AN ENDURING UPSLOPE SFC REGIME /PWATS
RANGING FROM THE 1.40-1.60 INCHES/ AND AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN
THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA RIDGE...TO PROMOTE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. RAINFALL RATES RANGED FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR UP TO THREE-QUARTER INCH OR SO PER
HOUR...WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS MOVING EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND ALSO MOVING IN FROM EAST NEW MEXICO TO
ACROSS THE FAR SWRN SOUTH PLAINS PER 08Z RADAR ANALYSIS.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UA TROUGH WAS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS AND WILL BE HEADED TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH ITS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE FA...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE HEADED
OUR WAY AS IT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND SRN KS PER 08Z
METARS. IT IS PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE FAR SWRN TX PANHANDLE
BETWEEN 12Z-15Z...AND QUICKLY ADVANCE SOUTH OF THE SRN ZONES BY
THE AFTN. THE 1030 MB SFC RIDGE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WILL
PROMOTE PRESSURE RISES OF 2-4 MB/3 HRS WHICH IS NOT VERY
STRONG...BUT NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
FURTHERMORE...COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT ADDITIONAL LIGHT-MODERATE
RAINFALL ALONG THE FRONT...NOT TO MENTION DECENT CAA /ALONG WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS/ WHICH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS STRUGGLING TO GET
OUT OF THE 50S AND 60S TODAY.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE
SFC RIDGE NEARS THE REGION...THUS CAUSING LIGHTER N-NE SFC WIND
SPEEDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WANE AS THE COLD FRONT AND ITS
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER..COULD
PERHAPS SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...SRN AND
SWRN ZONES. RAIN-FREE AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE CHILLY DUE TO THE FROPA AND RECENT RAINFALL...WITH MIDDLE
40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS ARE ANTICIPATED.

LONG TERM...
FCST AREA WILL KEEP A CONNECTION TO SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
STREAMING NWD FROM THE ERN PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM ODILE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LIFT THAT
HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA YESTERDAY AND TODAY WILL DIMINISH
AS A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL JET SHIFTS QUICKLY EWD TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT WILL KEEP COOL TEMPS AND
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE SMALL. THIS BEGINS TO CHANGE AGAIN FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...
AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SRN BRANCH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
MOVES EWD OVER THE DESERT SW AND IMPINGES ON THE FCST AREA
PROVIDING ANOTHER ROUND OF ALBEIT WEAKER LIFT THAN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FCST AREA. LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
MOIST...AND THERE MIGHT BE A WEAK FRONT THAT CAN MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE FCST AREA POSSIBLY PROVIDING EITHER A LOW LEVEL FOCUS
OR MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW. UPSHOT IS THAT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK REASONABLE FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THAT PERIOD TO PROVIDE A NARROWER
DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS THAN SEEN IN MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPS PROBABLY
WILL NOT RETURN TO MOS PROGS UNTIL LATE WEEK WHEN FCST AREA BEGINS
TO LOSE THE DEEP MOISTURE CONNECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        45  67  53  76  58 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         47  66  53  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     47  66  54  77  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     48  66  56  77  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       48  66  56  77  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   49  66  58  76  61 /  40  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    49  66  58  77  62 /  30  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     50  68  57  81  65 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          51  67  58  79  64 /  20  10  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     53  69  59  81  66 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/99

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