Area Forecast Discussion
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288
FXUS64 KLUB 192026
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AT 230 PM...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED W-SW FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR
PLAINVIEW TO NEAR DORA IN EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S IN PARMER COUNTY TO UPPER 70S IN STONEWALL COUNTY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH THE BROKEN CIRRUS AS THE REMAINING CAP
DWINDLES. WELL TO OUR WEST...CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING PRETTY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL NM HIGHLANDS. THE SPC/RAP 19 UTC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A SBCAPE AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE FAR SW
TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
A 110 KT JET STREAK PASSING OVER THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PICK
UP SOME SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM. THE LATEST HIGHER-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH THE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WE STILL THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST ON
THE CAPROCK...MORE LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE
WEAK SIDE...HOWEVER WITH AMBIENT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH OR SO
WITH THE FROPA...DOWNDRAFT GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 40-45 MPH.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SINKS IN TO NW MX. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND MAINTAIN SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AND THUS THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY. WE HAVE
INDICATED LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY BE A BIT ON THE
HIGH SIDE IF THE CLOUDS LINGER ON MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
CURRENT UNSETTLED THEME GOVERNED BY SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL
BREATH ONE FINAL GASP ACROSS WEST TX ON SAT BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRENDS QUIETER AND MORE ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING COOL SURFACE RIDGING ON FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL
ENSUE ON SATURDAY AT WHICH TIME THE BASE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
MODELS /INCLUDING THE ECM/ ARE TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS TROUGH AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN OUR REVISED POPS FOR
SAT. POPS WERE ALSO REDUCED IN DURATION SAT NIGHT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AS THIS WAVE DAMPENS AND ACCELERATES GRADUALLY IN FASTER
WESTERLY FLOW.

HEIGHT FIELDS WILL REBOUND NICELY ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE EFFECTS OF A S/W TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NONETHELESS...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
TX PANHANDLE LATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRACKING TO
OUR NORTH BY TUE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ATOP OUR AREA BY THIS POINT
SPELLS DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS MILD THEME APPEARS DOOMED BY MID-LATE WEEK
AS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS FAVOR L/W RIDGING TAKING AIM
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST INTO ALASKA. THIS CLASSIC PATTERN SPELLS
BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION INCLUDING A FEW MORE FREEZES FULLY
TYPICAL FOR EARLY SPRING IN THESE PARTS. INITIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE ON/AROUND WED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH A
COLDER REINFORCEMENT ON ITS HEELS SOMETIME LATE WEEK.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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