Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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762
FXUS64 KLUB 211717 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CWA REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY THINNING SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME. MID-LVL HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH LITTLE DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...SO WE EXPECT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROBUST THAN
YESTERDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE WRN
SPLNS WITH ACTIVITY MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK...BUT WE CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE OF -TSRA AT EITHER TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BETTER ODDS AT KLBB. AMENDMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...A T-STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY
INTERFERE WITH THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS FOR A
PERIOD. AFTER THE STANDARD PRE-DAWN LULL...BREEZY WINDS WILL
RETURN FRI MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

AVIATION...
DEEP MONSOON FLOW CONTINUES JUST WEST OF KLBB TODAY...WHILE KCDS
WILL BE ENOUGH EAST TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE. BULK OF SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT INTO THE
TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL KEEP MENTION OUT
OF KLBB FOR NOW. HIGH CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOCKING LOWER LEVEL
SATELLITE VIEWS ARE NOW THINNING ENOUGH TO GIVE AT LEAST PARTIAL
VIEW NEAR THE GROUND...NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS SOUTH OF KCDS OR
SOUTHEAST OF KLBB THIS MORNING THOUGH STILL WATCHING. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES
TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.6 INCHES NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS ALSO IS WITHIN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHEAR ZONE
AS WELL AS A MODEST SURFACE TROUGH. DISTURBANCES ALOFT CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN
THIS MORNING. A REMNANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY NEAR THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS POTENTIALLY COULD FACTOR IN LATER
TODAY. BUT IF ANYTHING...FLOW SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
CURVATURE TODAY VERSUS YESTERDAY FAVORING LESS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN ZONES. SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
GENERATING PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN
ZONES VERY SIMILAR TO OUR GOING FORECAST. WITHOUT CONVINCING
ARGUMENT TO FAVOR EITHER A DRY OR WET FORECAST TODAY...WE WILL
RETAIN THE GIST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TILTING BEST CHANCES
SLIGHTLY TO THE MODEL FAVORED AREAS. EDGED TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS UP
A HALF-NOTCH IN LINE WITH TRENDS AND CLOSER TO YESTERDAYS MAXIMUMS.
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN MODERATELY BREEZY FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PEAK IN THUNDER
CHANCES SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING TREND BY LATE EVENING...
ALSO FAVORING CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A FEW STORMS MAY
EXTEND JUST PAST MIDNIGHT SO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z
PERIOD NEAR THE STATE LINE AS WELL. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRECIP CHANCES STILL SEEM TO BE ON TRACK FOR TOMORROW EVENING ACROSS
OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST WILL THE
PRECIP PUSH. THE GFS/NAM KEEP A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE TROF ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE CO-LOCATED WITH
FORCING AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF. CONVECTION THAT
FORMS WILL MOST LIKELY STAY PRETTY CONFINED TO THIS AREA AS STEERING
FLOW IN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOME STORMS MAY
PROPAGATE EAST ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT THAT SCENARIO IS
UNKNOWN. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT FROM THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WESTWARD WHILE CHANCE POPS WERE KEPT ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL
HAVE LOST SOME OF ITS ENERGY AS IT DEAMPLIFIES. WHILE WEAKER...THE
SHORTWAVE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CONVECT ALONG A SURFACE TROF
REMAINING FROM FRIDAY. WITH THIS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED EASTWARD TO COVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FA. UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY BUT WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT AS HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE RELAXED AS WE ARE DOMINATED MAINLY BY
THE RIDGE TO OUR EAST. A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHILE CONTINUING TO
TAP MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE FORECAST BY MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS FUZZY BUT SOMEWHAT
DISCERNIBLE. THE GFS BRINGS A DEEPER TROF EASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT
PLAINS KEEPING OUR REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE TROF IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONT WHICH PUSHES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY
THURSDAY AS RIDGING SETS UP TO OUR WEST. THE ECMWF GOES BY THE
PHILOSOPHY THAT SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE AND PROLONGS THE FROPA
TILL NEXT WEEKEND. UNTIL THAT TIME IT KEEPS A CLOSED LOW OVER NV.
FOR THE TIME BEING THE FORECAST WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
UNTIL A CONSENSUS CAN BE MADE ON FROPA TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  90  61  86  61 /  30  30  30  20  20
TULIA         67  92  64  89  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     67  91  64  89  63 /  20  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  90  63  87  63 /  30  20  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  67  92  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  89  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  92  65  91  64 /  20  20  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     74  98  70  97  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
SPUR          68  95  66  94  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  98  69  97  70 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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