Area Forecast Discussion
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471
FXUS64 KLUB 230853
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW WHICH PROVIDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE ROLLING PLAINS YESTERDAY...CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS ERN
TX PER 08Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOOKING AT THE SFC...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SW SFC WINDS ON THE CAPROCK EARLY THIS MORNING /10-20
MPH/ WHICH IN TURN IS FILTERING IN DRYER AIR ONTO THE CAPROCK
/DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S/. HOWEVER...MOIST LOW LEVELS LINGER
OFF THE CAPROCK THEREBY PROMOTING SCT-BKN STRATUS AND LIGHT PATCHY
FOG. SINCE THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE DRYLINE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO SHIFT EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AT 09Z-10Z...HENCE SCOURING
OUT THE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. NEAR SUNRISE...MOST OF THE
CWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BREEZY WRLY SFC WINDS.

AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NEAR ZONAL LATER THIS MORNING ATTENTION
WILL TURN TO AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON
THE REGION NEAR SUNRISE...AND PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTN. LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WIND SPEEDS BROUGHT IN BY
THIS DISTURBANCE. CWA ABL MIXING TO AOA 700 MB WILL TAP INTO AN
IMPRESSIVE 60 KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. AS SUCH...MODEL
GUIDANCE HINTING AT SFC WIND SPEEDS EQUATING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA /SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 31 MPH/ APPEARS VALID. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT BE DONE WITH US YET...AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA BY LATE AFTN. PRESSURE RISES ON THE
ORDER OF 8 MB PER 3 HRS WILL PROMOTE PERSISTENT WIND ADVISORY
SPEEDS BUT FROM A NRLY DIRECTION. WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUING A WIND
ADVISORY COMMENCING AT 16Z AND ENDING AT 00Z WHERE THEREAFTER...A
NOTABLE DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL OCCUR.

BOTH DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS DUE
TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ADVECTING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. HIGH
TEMPS WILL WARM ONLY INTO THE LOWER 50S NW TO MIDDLE 60S SE...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S NW TO MIDDLE 30S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER IN THE OFFING THIS WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WRN CONUS. ONE MORE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WILL
REINFORCE COOL AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE FCST AREA WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL. HOWEVER...INCREASES IN
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EWD POINT TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS
THOSE DAYS IN LINE WITH GFS MOS. LATE WEEK STILL HAS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE
FCST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CONTINUITY...RUN-TO- RUN
OR WITH EACH OTHER...AND ENSEMBLE MOS SHOWS A SPREAD OF 25 TO 30
DEGREES IN POSSIBLE TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
HOLD THE LINE FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO FCST NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  24  50  21  50 /  10  10   0   0   0
TULIA         52  28  53  24  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  29  53  25  51 /  10  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  30  53  24  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  30  54  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   58  30  53  26  51 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  30  53  27  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     57  34  58  31  54 /   0  10   0   0   0
SPUR          62  34  56  29  55 /   0  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     66  35  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

29/07

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