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869
FXUS64 KLUB 260520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS
OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME SLIGHTLY BREEZY /10-12 KTS/ MORE SO FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL
OCCUR AT KCDS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BREACHING INTO THE 60S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD...BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FINAL WEEK
OF JANUARY. FULL INSOLATION AND H85 THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
.INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS WEST
TEXAS TO THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A
WHOLE LOT...PERHAPS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND KEEP US IN A COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY END UP TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND
SATURDAY...IT COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A
DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY. OR IT COULD ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NRN MX AND TX...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT COULD DIP BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS IT LOOKS LIKE
SNOW POTENTIAL COULD ENTER THE MIX EARLY SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT
NIGHT IF THE PRECIP LINGERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     38  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
229
FXUS64 KLUB 252321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
521 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY NW WINDS /ESPECIALLY AT KCDS/ WILL DECLINE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BACK A BIT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL COMMENCE TO COME UP JUST A
BIT TO 10-11 KTS...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS NOTED AT KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BREACHING INTO THE 60S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD...BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FINAL WEEK
OF JANUARY. FULL INSOLATION AND H85 THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
..INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS WEST
TEXAS TO THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A
WHOLE LOT...PERHAPS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND KEEP US IN A COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY END UP TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND
SATURDAY...IT COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A
DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY. OF IT COULD ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NRN MX AND TX...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT COULD DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS
IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW POTENTIAL COULD ENTER THE MIX EARLY SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT IF THE PRECIP LINGERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     38  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
956
FXUS64 KLUB 252145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS BREACHING INTO THE 60S ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TONIGHT AS AN APPROACHING
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BRINGS A TRANSITION TO ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN WAKE
OF A STOUT UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS
TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S ON MOST OF THE CAPROCK AND MID 30S
TO LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN THE LOWER ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE MONDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD...BRINGING EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE FINAL WEEK
OF JANUARY. FULL INSOLATION AND H85 THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN 10-20 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...REACHING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS
WITH UPPER 60 TO LOW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD PEAK WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SKIRTS WEST
TEXAS TO THE NORTH...TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
RESULTING IN BREEZY...WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 60S AND 70S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY/S HIGHS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS WE SEE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST...DOWNSTREAM OF A UPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO AND CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEDIUM-
RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
EXPAND FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS IN SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE A
WHOLE LOT...PERHAPS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A STEADY STREAM OF MID-LVL MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND KEEP US IN A COOL...CLOUDY AND MOIST PATTERN. THE BEST
PRECIP CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIP TOTALS MAY END UP TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP LOOKS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN
RAISED INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND
SATURDAY...IT COULD DRIFT FARTHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...BRINGING A
DECREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES BY SUNDAY. OF IT COULD ADVANCE EAST
ACROSS NRN MX AND TX...WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP TYPE...WE EXPECT TEMPS TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT COULD DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH COLDER TEMPS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THUS
IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW POTENTIAL COULD ENTER THE MIX EARLY SAT AND
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT IF THE PRECIP LINGERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         32  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     32  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   33  68  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    33  68  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     36  73  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          38  70  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     38  72  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33
155
FXUS64 KLUB 251734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES WILL
IMPACT KCDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BELOW 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING. KPVW AND KLBB WILL SEE 10-15 KNOT SUSTAINED
WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF BY SUNSET.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX SPIRALING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AHEAD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE HAD
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRINGES OF A NORTHERLY LLJ OCCUPYING
WESTERN OK. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SPELLS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN
MAX TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THICKNESSES BY
LATE AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MILD
SURFACE RIDGING THEN OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WEST TX TONIGHT FROM NEW
MEXICO COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
DRY AIR AND MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
S/SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.
LOCALLY...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL AID TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
70 BY WED. AND LOWER 70S BOTH TUE/WED OFF THE CAPROCK. IMPRESSIVE
WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEVERELY DIVERGE ON THURSDAY. GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE WEST COAST TROF CLOSER TO W TX ALONG
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ECM IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. IN
EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT CAN SNEAK SOUTH FROM THE PERSISTENT NWLY
FLOW...PART OF NORTHERN STREAM JET. HAVE REFLECTED COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY IN THE 50S... AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  27  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  29  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     52  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  33  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          62  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  33  70  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
931
FXUS64 KLUB 251125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
525 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH STEADY NORTH WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AT PVW AND LBB...HIGHER
AT CDS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX SPIRALING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AHEAD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE HAD
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRINGES OF A NORTHERLY LLJ OCCUPYING
WESTERN OK. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SPELLS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN
MAX TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THICKNESSES BY
LATE AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MILD
SURFACE RIDGING THEN OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WEST TX TONIGHT FROM NEW
MEXICO COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

LONG TERM...
DRY AIR AND MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
S/SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.
LOCALLY...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL AID TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
70 BY WED. AND LOWER 70S BOTH TUE/WED OFF THE CAPROCK. IMPRESSIVE
WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEVERELY DIVERGE ON THURSDAY. GFS IS MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE WEST COAST TROF CLOSER TO W TX ALONG
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ECM IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. IN
EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT CAN SNEAK SOUTH FROM THE PERSISTENT NWLY
FLOW...PART OF NORTHERN STREAM JET. HAVE REFLECTED COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY IN THE 50S... AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
938
FXUS64 KLUB 250924
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
324 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE VORT MAX SPIRALING SOUTHEAST OVER EASTERN KS THIS MORNING
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BEFORE DAYBREAK
AHEAD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS. STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE HAD
IN OUR EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE FRINGES OF A NORTHERLY LLJ OCCUPYING
WESTERN OK. LACK OF COLD ADVECTION SPELLS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN
MAX TEMPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK WHERE THICKNESSES BY
LATE AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO BE EVEN HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MILD
SURFACE RIDGING THEN OVERSPREADS MUCH OF WEST TX TONIGHT FROM NEW
MEXICO COMPLETE WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...
DRY AIR AND MILD PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BECOMES ELONGATED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
S/SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
DRIVES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES.
LOCALLY...DOWNSLOPING WEST WINDS WILL AID TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR
70 BY WED. AND LOWER 70S BOTH TUE/WED OFF THE CAPROCK. IMPRESSIVE
WARMTH FOR LATE JANUARY WITH TEMPS 15-20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AT THE SAME TIME THE
MODELS BEGINNING TO SEVERELY DIVERGE ON THURSDAY. GFS IS MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING THE WEST COAST TROF CLOSER TO W TX ALONG
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. ECM IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER. IN
EITHER SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND. PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE MARGINAL FOR ANY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THAT WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH
OF RESIDUAL COLD AIR THAT CAN SNEAK SOUTH FROM THE PERSISTENT NWLY
FLOW...PART OF NORTHERN STREAM JET. HAVE REFLECTED COOLER TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY IN THE 50S... AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH CLOUD COVER
AND SOME POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. JAMES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        50  27  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         51  29  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     52  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     57  29  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       58  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   59  30  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    59  30  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  33  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          62  33  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     63  33  70  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/06
502
FXUS64 KLUB 250530
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS VEER TO NORTH/NNW AND INCREASE
BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTN BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. MOSTLY LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME NW/NORTH AND INCREASE SOME BY NOON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS STILL
HOLDING ONTO SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RATIONALE
FOR BUMPING LOWS UP A TAD. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS WHILE OTHER LOCALES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO
THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. ONLY
EXPECT THIS TO TEMPER THE ONGOING WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK WITH 60S TAKING PLACE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL
TURN EAST AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STARTING A COOLING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL FORM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THUS
HAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE POPS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUPPRESSES THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SW AS A SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...KEEPING US IN COOLER...DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER POPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES EITHER WAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN THE LATEST RUNS AS THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS
RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIP-TYPE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. FURTHER
COOLING MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX BY SATURDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP IS
ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  50  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  52  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          33  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
918
FXUS64 KLUB 242317
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
517 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY. MOSTLY LIGHT WEST WINDS TONIGHT TO
BECOME NW/NORTH AND INCREASE SOME BY NOON SUNDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS STILL
HOLDING ONTO SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RATIONALE
FOR BUMPING LOWS UP A TAD. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS WHILE OTHER LOCALES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO
THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. ONLY
EXPECT THIS TO TEMPER THE ONGOING WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK WITH 60S TAKING PLACE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

LONG TERM...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL
TURN EAST AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STARTING A COOLING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL FORM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THUS
HAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE POPS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUPPRESSES THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SW AS A SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...KEEPING US IN COOLER...DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER POPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES EITHER WAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN THE LATEST RUNS AS THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS
RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIP-TYPE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. FURTHER
COOLING MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX BY SATURDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP IS
ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  50  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  52  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          33  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
754
FXUS64 KLUB 242145
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES ALONG WITH INCREASING
THICKNESSES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 60S OVER
PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS STILL
HOLDING ONTO SNOWPACK REMAINING IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST AND AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT...THUS THE RATIONALE
FOR BUMPING LOWS UP A TAD. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS WHILE OTHER LOCALES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S
TO MID 30S.

ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM DAY REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MAKING HEADWAY INTO
THE MIDWEST WILL VEER WINDS MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. ONLY
EXPECT THIS TO TEMPER THE ONGOING WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK WITH 60S TAKING PLACE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE.

.LONG TERM...
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEAKENING WAVE WILL
TURN EAST AND SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS...AND LIKELY PUSH TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS ON THE
CAPROCK. A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...STARTING A COOLING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A DEEP TROUGH
WILL FORM NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE LOCATION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTS A DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO
DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THUS
HAS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE POPS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND...SUPPRESSES THE CLOSED LOW WELL TO OUR SW AS A SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST...KEEPING US IN COOLER...DRIER NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND RESULTING IN MUCH LOWER POPS. BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES ROUGHLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE UNTIL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES EITHER WAY. FORECAST
850MB TEMPS ARE QUITE A BIT WARMER IN THE LATEST RUNS AS THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION...THUS
RAIN IS THE FAVORED PRECIP-TYPE...AT LEAST INITIALLY. FURTHER
COOLING MAY BRING SNOW INTO THE MIX BY SATURDAY NIGHT IF PRECIP IS
ONGOING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        25  50  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         28  52  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     28  53  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     28  58  31  63 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       29  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   30  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    30  59  31  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     35  61  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          33  61  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     34  62  35  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/33
677
FXUS64 KLUB 241741
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1141 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW CIRRUS
FILTERING IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR BELOW FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
RETROGRADING LOW NEAR BAJA CA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS BEEN DIRECTING A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO HOME SHOULD KEEP
THESE CLOUDS FROM DISRUPTING OUR SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT
FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOOST HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...HOWEVER MAX
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT
TONIGHT AREA WIDE GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY W-NW WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH HAVE THUS FAR KEPT TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVER THE
THICKEST OF SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE
AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE JET STREAM AND MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
REGION AND A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SECOND CLOSED DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO DRAW SOME OF THE MOISTURE
OVER THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES EXIST JUST PAST THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. 850HPA TEMPS
IN THE GFS DROP TO AROUND -10 C WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 0C
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  26  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          54  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
715
FXUS64 KLUB 241127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
527 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WLY WINDS THRU 12Z SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
RETROGRADING LOW NEAR BAJA CA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS BEEN DIRECTING A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO HOME SHOULD KEEP
THESE CLOUDS FROM DISRUPTING OUR SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT
FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOOST HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...HOWEVER MAX
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT
TONIGHT AREA WIDE GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY W-NW WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH HAVE THUS FAR KEPT TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVER THE
THICKEST OF SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE
AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE JET STREAM AND MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
REGION AND A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SECOND CLOSED DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO DRAW SOME OF THE MOISTURE
OVER THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES EXIST JUST PAST THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. 850HPA TEMPS
IN THE GFS DROP TO AROUND -10 C WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 0C
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
525
FXUS64 KLUB 241011
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
411 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UNEVENTFUL PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNDER WEAK AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW.
RETROGRADING LOW NEAR BAJA CA WITH AN ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JET
HAS BEEN DIRECTING A THICK PLUME OF CIRRUS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS
ALL NIGHT...BUT CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW CLOSER TO HOME SHOULD KEEP
THESE CLOUDS FROM DISRUPTING OUR SUNNY SKIES TODAY. THIS SUBSIDENT
FLOW WILL SERVE TO BOOST HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES...HOWEVER MAX
TEMPS WERE NUDGED TOWARD THE COOLER MET NUMBERS FOR MOST AREAS ON
THE CAPROCK GIVEN LINGERING SNOW COVER AND MORE TOPSOIL MOISTURE
COMPARED TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS A BIT
TONIGHT AREA WIDE GIVEN ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY W-NW WINDS
EXPECTED WHICH HAVE THUS FAR KEPT TEMPS FROM CRATERING OVER THE
THICKEST OF SNOW PACK IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
A RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S BY MONDAY THANKS TO THE RIDGE
AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE WIND. THE RIDGE WILL
START TO SHIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST IS PICKED UP BY THE JET STREAM AND MOVED ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE
REGION AND A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
START TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY BUT WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DRYLINE DEVELOPS AS THE REMNANTS
OF THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE REMNANTS MOVE OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A COLD FRONT
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL
FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
SOMEWHERE NEAR OR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SECOND CLOSED DEVELOPS OFF
THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRENGTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION AND HELP TO DRAW SOME OF THE MOISTURE
OVER THE FRONT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODELS STILL HAVE
DIFFERENCES ON THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION BUT WILL
CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS
FORECAST CYCLE ONCE AGAIN. BIGGEST DIFFERENCES EXIST JUST PAST THE
END OF THE FORECAST WHERE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER BLAST OF
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER. 850HPA TEMPS
IN THE GFS DROP TO AROUND -10 C WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER TO 0C
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  24  53  26 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         45  26  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     45  27  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     49  25  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   51  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    52  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          54  31  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  33  66  38 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
294
FXUS64 KLUB 240538
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AT THE SURFACE. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY GROUND FOG AROUND
REMAINING SNOW PACK OVERNIGHT...AND IF SO ADVECTING NEAR TO EITHER
KPVW OR KLBB BUT SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY NOT EXPICITLY INDICATING THIS.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER DRY NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
THE EARLIER WEEK RAIN/SNOW...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND 40S IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOWPACK.
SHOULD SEE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERALL. ALTHOUGH
WARMER THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
STORE WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ATOP SNOWPACK WITH
MID-UPPER 20S SOUTH AND EAST. ANY FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGATED BY
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT.

LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONTINUED EXPENSE OF
SOLAR ENERGY ON THE LATENT HEAT FLUX WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ON THE CAPROCK...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NEAR FRIONA TO LOW
50S NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. SNOW FREE AREAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT OUT
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN AS IT COMES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LEE TROUGHING FURTHER BUMPING TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE 70S AGAIN AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BECOME
CUT OFF...OFF SHORE. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A REX
BLOCK TYPE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST TEXAS.
FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH AT THE MOMENT SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         19  48  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  49  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  53  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  51  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  51  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     26  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
888
FXUS64 KLUB 232304
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
504 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE REGION UNDER DRY NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
THE EARLIER WEEK RAIN/SNOW...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND 40S IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOWPACK.
SHOULD SEE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERALL. ALTHOUGH
WARMER THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
STORE WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ATOP SNOWPACK WITH
MID-UPPER 20S SOUTH AND EAST. ANY FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGATED BY
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT.

LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONTINUED EXPENSE OF
SOLAR ENERGY ON THE LATENT HEAT FLUX WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ON THE CAPROCK...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NEAR FRIONA TO LOW
50S NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. SNOW FREE AREAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT OUT
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN AS IT COMES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LEE TROUGHING FURTHER BUMPING TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE 70S AGAIN AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BECOME
CUT OFF...OFF SHORE. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A REX
BLOCK TYPE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST TEXAS.
FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH AT THE MOMENT SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         19  48  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  49  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  53  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  51  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  51  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     26  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
291
FXUS64 KLUB 232123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
323 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
THE EARLIER WEEK RAIN/SNOW...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND 40S IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOWPACK.
SHOULD SEE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERALL. ALTHOUGH
WARMER THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
STORE WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ATOP SNOWPACK WITH
MID-UPPER 20S SOUTH AND EAST. ANY FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGATED BY
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT.

LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONTINUED EXPENSE OF
SOLAR ENERGY ON THE LATENT HEAT FLUX WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ON THE CAPROCK...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NEAR FRIONA TO LOW
50S NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. SNOW FREE AREAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT OUT
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN AS IT COMES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LEE TROUGHING FURTHER BUMPING TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE 70S AGAIN AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BECOME
CUT OFF...OFF SHORE. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A REX
BLOCK TYPE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST TEXAS.
FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH AT THE MOMENT SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         19  48  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  49  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  53  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  51  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  51  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     26  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/01
629
FXUS64 KLUB 231747
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BUT NO RISK OF CEILINGS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 09Z...A DECAYING UPPER LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN WITH ITS PARENT TROUGH AXIS ALREADY HAVING CLEARED
THE WESTERN HALF OUR CWA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTINCT
DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR MIDLAND...HOWEVER ASCENT FARTHER NORTH HAS
BEEN WANING ALL NIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES FILLING AHEAD OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING
SKIES. SURFACE RIDGE ALREADY NW OF SAID LOW WILL DAMPEN TODAY
BEFORE REDEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM TONIGHT. STEADY W-NW WINDS ALL
DAY AND FULL SUN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM ERODING THE 1-2 INCH
SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL PROVE
TOUGHER IN OUR SW PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE THICK SNOW COULD EASILY
LINGER FOR DAYS. DESPITE UNDER DOING THE SNOW DEPTH AMOUNTS IN OUR
NW...THE NAM SNOW COVERAGE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. AS SUCH...MAX
TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THIS MODEL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SWATH FROM PARMER COUNTY EAST TO SWISHER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE...THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IS DECIDING HOW
MUCH TEMPS WILL CRATER OVER THE REMAINING SNOW PACK UNDER LIGHT NW
WINDS. MOS IS CLEARLY MISSING THE SNOW COVER IN OUR NW ZONES AND
IS SIMPLY MUCH TOO WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP. UNDERCUT
MOS LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS BY A GOOD 10 DEGREES...THOUGH LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE EVEN FURTHER.

LONG TERM...
AFTER THE HECTIC START TO THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE...THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES WEST OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL SPIN OUT WEST OF BAJA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING A RETURN OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT IS
CARRIED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING A RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS AND HOLDS OFF THE START OF PRECIPITATION BY
ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER. GFS STARTS PRECIP AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY MORNING SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD AS WE MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  15  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  19  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  22  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     40  23  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  22  51  27 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  51  27 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     48  26  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  29  54  30 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  28  57  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
123
FXUS64 KLUB 231120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
520 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH WNW WINDS OF 5-12 KNOTS THRU 12Z SAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 09Z...A DECAYING UPPER LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN WITH ITS PARENT TROUGH AXIS ALREADY HAVING CLEARED
THE WESTERN HALF OUR CWA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTINCT
DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR MIDLAND...HOWEVER ASCENT FARTHER NORTH HAS
BEEN WANING ALL NIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES FILLING AHEAD OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING
SKIES. SURFACE RIDGE ALREADY NW OF SAID LOW WILL DAMPEN TODAY
BEFORE REDEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM TONIGHT. STEADY W-NW WINDS ALL
DAY AND FULL SUN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM ERODING THE 1-2 INCH
SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL PROVE
TOUGHER IN OUR SW PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE THICK SNOW COULD EASILY
LINGER FOR DAYS. DESPITE UNDER DOING THE SNOW DEPTH AMOUNTS IN OUR
NW...THE NAM SNOW COVERAGE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. AS SUCH...MAX
TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THIS MODEL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SWATH FROM PARMER COUNTY EAST TO SWISHER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE...THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IS DECIDING HOW
MUCH TEMPS WILL CRATER OVER THE REMAINING SNOW PACK UNDER LIGHT NW
WINDS. MOS IS CLEARLY MISSING THE SNOW COVER IN OUR NW ZONES AND
IS SIMPLY MUCH TOO WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP. UNDERCUT
MOS LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS BY A GOOD 10 DEGREES...THOUGH LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE EVEN FURTHER.

LONG TERM...
AFTER THE HECTIC START TO THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE...THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES WEST OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL SPIN OUT WEST OF BAJA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING A RETURN OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT IS
CARRIED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING A RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS AND HOLDS OFF THE START OF PRECIPITATION BY
ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER. GFS STARTS PRECIP AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY MORNING SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD AS WE MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
502
FXUS64 KLUB 231027
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AT 09Z...A DECAYING UPPER LOW WAS DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE
PERMIAN BASIN WITH ITS PARENT TROUGH AXIS ALREADY HAVING CLEARED
THE WESTERN HALF OUR CWA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTINCT
DEFORMATION ZONE NEAR MIDLAND...HOWEVER ASCENT FARTHER NORTH HAS
BEEN WANING ALL NIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MID-
LEVEL DRYING. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES FILLING AHEAD OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING
SKIES. SURFACE RIDGE ALREADY NW OF SAID LOW WILL DAMPEN TODAY
BEFORE REDEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM TONIGHT. STEADY W-NW WINDS ALL
DAY AND FULL SUN SHOULD HAVE LITTLE PROBLEM ERODING THE 1-2 INCH
SNOW COVER OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL PROVE
TOUGHER IN OUR SW PANHANDLE COUNTIES WHERE THICK SNOW COULD EASILY
LINGER FOR DAYS. DESPITE UNDER DOING THE SNOW DEPTH AMOUNTS IN OUR
NW...THE NAM SNOW COVERAGE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. AS SUCH...MAX
TEMPS WERE WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THIS MODEL TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
HEAVIER SNOW SWATH FROM PARMER COUNTY EAST TO SWISHER COUNTY.
OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTH TONIGHT DOWNSTREAM OF A
FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE...THE ONLY REAL CHALLENGE IS DECIDING HOW
MUCH TEMPS WILL CRATER OVER THE REMAINING SNOW PACK UNDER LIGHT NW
WINDS. MOS IS CLEARLY MISSING THE SNOW COVER IN OUR NW ZONES AND
IS SIMPLY MUCH TOO WARM TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP. UNDERCUT
MOS LOW TEMPS IN THESE AREAS BY A GOOD 10 DEGREES...THOUGH LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE EVEN FURTHER.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE HECTIC START TO THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE...THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY BENIGN. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS A CUTOFF LOW MOVES WEST OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS CLOSED LOW
WILL SPIN OUT WEST OF BAJA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
WHICH WILL ALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL KEEP DRY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
BRING A RETURN OF A WEAK LEE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE. THE CLOSED LOW
WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT IS
CARRIED OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND THE END
OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...THE MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING A RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM THAN THE GFS AND HOLDS OFF THE START OF PRECIPITATION BY
ABOUT 24 HOURS LATER. GFS STARTS PRECIP AS EARLY AS MIDNIGHT
FRIDAY MORNING SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD AS WE MOVE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        33  15  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  19  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     40  22  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     40  23  51  25 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       41  23  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   42  22  51  27 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    43  25  51  27 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     48  26  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          47  29  54  30 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     49  28  57  34 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14
639
FXUS64 KLUB 230554
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS POSITIONED JUST TO OUR WEST WILL PASS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 6HRS. BEST LIFT TO OUR SOUTH HAS
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL AT KLBB AND IS EXPECTED TAPER OFF OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL TERMINALS IN VFR AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED AND GRADUALLY BACK
WESTWARD BY SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         8  36  14  41 /  40   0   0   0
TULIA         12  38  22  43 /  40   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     15  37  23  46 /  50   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     14  38  22  47 /  70   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  23  48 /  70   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  38  25  49 /  70  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  40  23  49 /  70  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     23  45  29  55 /  40   0   0   0
SPUR          22  43  27  53 /  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     27  47  28  55 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/55
572
FXUS64 KLUB 230127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
727 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON THIS EVENINGS SNOWFALL VERY
WELL. TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS ANOTHER 1/2 INCH WITH OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S
WHICH LIKELY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING ICING ON HIGHWAYS. ADVISORY
ENDS CURRENTLY AT MIDNIGHT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

AVIATION...
WE HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE LAST OF THE LIFR FOR THIS EVENT.
CEILINGS AT KPLV ARE CURRENTLY IN THE IFR RANGE AND ARE FORECASTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CURRENT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM AND THE LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN THEIR NORTHERLY COMPONENT
BEFORE BACKING TOWARD THE WEST LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN NEW MEXICO. THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH /FROM SRN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/ PRODUCING THE LAST BIT OF LIFT
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. 18Z WRF-NAM AND
MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL SEWD IN TIME. SOME MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS
BEEN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOWFALL FROM LUBBOCK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE.

PRECIP LIKELY TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA WHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW END CHANCE MENTION ATTM.

SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE. THAT CLEARING
ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
THERE TO DROP TO OR BELOW COLD END OF MOS GUIDANCE WHILE FARTHER
EAST LOW TEMPS NEAR A MOS BLEND MORE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY. INSOLATION AND MODEST WEST WIND TO BE COUNTERACTED
ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY THE SNOW FIELD. WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THERE AND LEAN CLOSER TO MOS FURTHER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMUP UNDERNEATH INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS
AND TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING POINTS EAST. ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS SATURDAY...OWING TO ENERGY ALOFT BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF
LOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 40S/50S SATURDAY AND NEAR 50 IN VICINITY OF
LINGERING SNOWPACK IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO MID 60S IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT BY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE LOCALLY. FURTHER WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MAY SEE A COOLDOWN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-LATE WEEK IF
PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SERIES OF PROGGED
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         8  36  14  41 /  40   0   0   0
TULIA         12  38  22  43 /  40   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     15  37  23  46 /  50   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     14  38  22  47 /  70   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  23  48 /  70   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  38  25  49 /  70  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  40  23  49 /  70  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     23  45  29  55 /  40   0   0   0
SPUR          22  43  27  53 /  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     27  47  28  55 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

05/99
975
FXUS64 KLUB 222357
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
557 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.AVIATION...
WE HAVE LIKELY SEEN THE LAST OF THE LIFR FOR THIS EVENT.
CEILINGS AT KPLV ARE CURRENTLY IN THE IFR RANGE AND ARE FORECASTED
TO IMPROVE AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT CURRENT MVFR CIGS TO GIVE
WAY TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM AND THE LIGHT SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS SOUTH AND EAST. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND MAINTAIN THEIR NORTHERLY COMPONENT
BEFORE BACKING TOWARD THE WEST LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN NEW MEXICO. THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH /FROM SRN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/ PRODUCING THE LAST BIT OF LIFT
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. 18Z WRF-NAM AND
MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL SEWD IN TIME. SOME MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS
BEEN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOWFALL FROM LUBBOCK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE.

PRECIP LIKELY TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA WHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW END CHANCE MENTION ATTM.

SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE. THAT CLEARING
ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
THERE TO DROP TO OR BELOW COLD END OF MOS GUIDANCE WHILE FARTHER
EAST LOW TEMPS NEAR A MOS BLEND MORE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY. INSOLATION AND MODEST WEST WIND TO BE COUNTERACTED
ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY THE SNOW FIELD. WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THERE AND LEAN CLOSER TO MOS FURTHER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMUP UNDERNEATH INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS
AND TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING POINTS EAST. ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS SATURDAY...OWING TO ENERGY ALOFT BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF
LOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 40S/50S SATURDAY AND NEAR 50 IN VICINITY OF
LINGERING SNOWPACK IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO MID 60S IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT BY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE LOCALLY. FURTHER WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MAY SEE A COOLDOWN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-LATE WEEK IF
PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SERIES OF PROGGED
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         8  36  14  41 /  20   0   0   0
TULIA         12  38  22  43 /  30   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     15  37  23  46 /  30   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     14  38  22  47 /  50   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  23  48 /  50   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  38  25  49 /  60  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  40  23  49 /  60  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     23  45  29  55 /  30   0   0   0
SPUR          22  43  27  53 /  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     27  47  28  55 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027-028-033-034-039>042.

&&

$$

07/31/55
043
FXUS64 KLUB 222106
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM CONTINUING TO
MOVE SEWD THROUGH SRN NEW MEXICO. THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH /FROM SRN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/ PRODUCING THE LAST BIT OF LIFT
ACROSS THE WRN AND CNTL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. 18Z WRF-NAM AND
MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL SEWD IN TIME. SOME MODEST
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1/2 INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT HAS
BEEN AT OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTN. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOWFALL FROM LUBBOCK TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...SO CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY SHOULD SUFFICE.

PRECIP LIKELY TO COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
OF THE FAR SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA WHERE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO
LOW END CHANCE MENTION ATTM.

SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE BY SUNRISE. THAT CLEARING
ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES COMBINED WITH SNOW COVER SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
THERE TO DROP TO OR BELOW COLD END OF MOS GUIDANCE WHILE FARTHER
EAST LOW TEMPS NEAR A MOS BLEND MORE LIKELY. HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY
WILL BE TRICKY. INSOLATION AND MODEST WEST WIND TO BE COUNTERACTED
ACROSS THE NWRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA BY THE SNOW FIELD. WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THERE AND LEAN CLOSER TO MOS FURTHER
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AND A STEADY WARMUP UNDERNEATH INCREASING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES ALOFT WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE WESTERN CONUS
AND TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING POINTS EAST. ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS SATURDAY...OWING TO ENERGY ALOFT BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF
LOW...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE IN THE OFFING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 40S/50S SATURDAY AND NEAR 50 IN VICINITY OF
LINGERING SNOWPACK IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE TO MID 60S IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT MAY BRING A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT BY MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE DIVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE LOCALLY. FURTHER WARMING WELL INTO THE 60S
SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MAY SEE A COOLDOWN BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE BY MID-LATE WEEK IF
PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN ADVECT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A SERIES OF PROGGED
DISTURBANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA         8  36  14  41 /  20   0   0   0
TULIA         12  38  22  43 /  30   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     15  37  23  46 /  30   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     14  38  22  47 /  50   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       16  39  23  48 /  50   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   19  38  25  49 /  60  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    18  40  23  49 /  60  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     23  45  29  55 /  30   0   0   0
SPUR          22  43  27  53 /  70  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     27  47  28  55 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027-028-033-034-039>042.

&&

$$

07/31
420
FXUS64 KLUB 221756
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1156 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN THE PROCESS OF WINDING DOWN FOR THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. DRY AIR WORKING INTO THE NERN ZONES HAVE KILLED
PRECIP THERE. THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS PRECIP CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH NM WITH BEST LIFT EVIDENT PER
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN. SOME MOISTENING VCNTY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL WORK
EWD AS WELL. EXPECT RESULT TO BE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATION /LESS THAN AN INCH/ WRN ZONES AND SRN ZONES. WILL
TRIM POPS AND SNOW WORDING ACCORDINGLY AS WELL AS DOWNGRADE OR
DROP THE WARNING AND TRIM THE ADVISORY IN AREAL EXTENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRECIPITIATION SLOWLY COMING TO AN END AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN
FROM THE NE AND AS LIFT DIMINISHING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW WORK EWD FROM ERN NM AND ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AS
THE UPPER LOW OVER NM CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD. ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. BIGGER ISSUE IS IFR AND MVFR CIGS.
THINGS MORE OPTIMISTIC KCDS WHO MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
AFTN. KPVW AND KLBB SHOULD STAY IFR OR LOW END MVFR. CLEARING
EXPECTED EARLY EVENING...WHICH MAY SET UP POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ON TOP OF THE SNOW FIELD. CONFIDENCE IN
THAT SCENARIO LOW ATTM AND WILL RUN WITH VFR CONDITIONS FROM EARLY
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND OCCASINALLY PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW. SNOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AT KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN KPVW AND KLBB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE
PERIODS WHERE CEILINGS BRIEFLY GO MVFR BUT A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF US UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH USUALLY
PRECLUDES ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. EVENTUALLY WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT
AND CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL...ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT AND ANOTHER CASE WHERE MOTHER
NATURE DECIDED TO LAUGH AT OUR FORECAST.  IN THIS CASE...AS IS MOST
OF THE CASES WHERE SNOWFALL DOES NOT DEVELOP AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
OUR AREA...DRY AIR FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID-LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP. ALSO HAMPERING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT FOR THE MOST PART HOVERED RIGHT AROUND 32
DEGREES.  TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BUT A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF FREEZING.  THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOLDOUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT THESE SHOULD FALL BELOW
AROUND SUNRISE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE INITIAL AREA OF LIFT WITH THE TROF
PUSHING OUT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.  THE SECOND AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WAS SLOWLY DIVING SOUTH.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE TROF AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY.  MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH THE SECOND CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  THE DRIER AIR
AROUND 700HPA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO RISE BACK TO
AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL OCCUR.

HARD TO GET ANY ADDITIONAL REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AT THIS EARLY
HOUR BUT 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ON THE GROUND WITH GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  ROAD CONDITIONS AROUND
THE HUB CITY APPEAR TO BE SLUSHY WITH A FEW ICY SPOTS REPORTED ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.  GRAND TOTAL BY THE TIME THINGS ARE DONE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REDUCED AMOUNTS WE HAVE IN OUR
GRAPHICAST...6-8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HANDLE THIS NICELY AND WILL CONTINUE THESE
TO THEIR COMPLETION TIME.

WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO SEE SNOWFALL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS
APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD.  THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE SNOW SHUT OFF.  CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SET UP A
CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CAPROCK...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IF WINDS GO CALM
AND SKIES MANAGE TO TOTALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S WINTER
STORM. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BECOMES SITUATED
BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT AND
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT
A SOLID WARMING TREND...THOUGH WE HAVE TEMPERED THE WARMING A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE. EVEN SO...HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SHOULD
BECOME COMMONPLACE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND /ASIDE
FROM MAYBE A FEW 40S LINGERING NORTHWEST/...WITH PLENTY OF SUN TO GO
AROUND. THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFTED EASTWARD MORE SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES MAY ATTEMPT TO RIDE UP AND INTO/THROUGH THE RIDGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29   8  36  13 / 100  10   0   0
TULIA         30  12  38  21 / 100  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  15  38  22 / 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     31  14  39  21 / 100  40  10   0
LUBBOCK       32  16  40  22 / 100  40  10   0
DENVER CITY   32  19  39  24 / 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    32  18  40  22 / 100  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     35  23  45  28 / 100  20  10   0
SPUR          32  22  44  26 / 100  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  27  47  27 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021-
022-027-028-033-034-039>042.

&&

$$

07
071
FXUS64 KLUB 221147 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
547 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.AVIATION...
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL MAINLY BE DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND OCCASINALLY PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW. SNOW WILL ALSO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AT KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN KPVW AND KLBB AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE
PERIODS WHERE CEILINGS BRIEFLY GO MVFR BUT A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF US UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH USUALLY
PRECLUDES ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. EVENTUALLY WE SHOULD SEE A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT
AND CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL...ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT AND ANOTHER CASE WHERE MOTHER
NATURE DECIDED TO LAUGH AT OUR FORECAST.  IN THIS CASE...AS IS MOST
OF THE CASES WHERE SNOWFALL DOES NOT DEVELOP AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
OUR AREA...DRY AIR FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID-LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP. ALSO HAMPERING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT FOR THE MOST PART HOVERED RIGHT AROUND 32
DEGREES.  TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BUT A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF FREEZING.  THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOLDOUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT THESE SHOULD FALL BELOW
AROUND SUNRISE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE INITIAL AREA OF LIFT WITH THE TROF
PUSHING OUT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.  THE SECOND AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WAS SLOWLY DIVING SOUTH.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE TROF AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY.  MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH THE SECOND CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  THE DRIER AIR
AROUND 700HPA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO RISE BACK TO
AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL OCCUR.

HARD TO GET ANY ADDITIONAL REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AT THIS EARLY
HOUR BUT 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ON THE GROUND WITH GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  ROAD CONDITIONS AROUND
THE HUB CITY APPEAR TO BE SLUSHY WITH A FEW ICY SPOTS REPORTED ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.  GRAND TOTAL BY THE TIME THINGS ARE DONE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REDUCED AMOUNTS WE HAVE IN OUR
GRAPHICAST...6-8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HANDLE THIS NICELY AND WILL CONTINUE THESE
TO THEIR COMPLETION TIME.

WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO SEE SNOWFALL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS
APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD.  THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE SNOW SHUT OFF.  CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SET UP A
CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CAPROCK...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IF WINDS GO CALM
AND SKIES MANAGE TO TOTALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S WINTER
STORM. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BECOMES SITUATED
BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT AND
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT
A SOLID WARMING TREND...THOUGH WE HAVE TEMPERED THE WARMING A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE. EVEN SO...HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SHOULD
BECOME COMMONPLACE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND /ASIDE
FROM MAYBE A FEW 40S LINGERING NORTHWEST/...WITH PLENTY OF SUN TO GO
AROUND. THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFTED EASTWARD MORE SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES MAY ATTEMPT TO RIDE UP AND INTO/THROUGH THE RIDGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29   8  36  13 / 100  10   0   0
TULIA         30  12  38  21 / 100  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  15  38  22 / 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     31  14  39  21 / 100  40  10   0
LUBBOCK       32  16  40  22 / 100  40  10   0
DENVER CITY   32  19  39  24 / 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    32  18  40  22 / 100  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     35  23  45  28 / 100  20  10   0
SPUR          32  22  44  26 / 100  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  27  47  27 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ024>026-028>044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021>023-
027.

&&

$$
174
FXUS64 KLUB 221007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WELL...ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER EVENT AND ANOTHER CASE WHERE MOTHER
NATURE DECIDED TO LAUGH AT OUR FORECAST.  IN THIS CASE...AS IS MOST
OF THE CASES WHERE SNOWFALL DOES NOT DEVELOP AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
OUR AREA...DRY AIR FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE MID-LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SNOW TO
DEVELOP. ALSO HAMPERING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR AREA WERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT FOR THE MOST PART HOVERED RIGHT AROUND 32
DEGREES.  TEMPS HAVE DROPPED A BIT MORE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS BUT A LARGE SWATH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO
OF FREEZING.  THERE ARE STILL A FEW HOLDOUTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT THESE SHOULD FALL BELOW
AROUND SUNRISE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE INITIAL AREA OF LIFT WITH THE TROF
PUSHING OUT ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS.  THE SECOND AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO/NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WAS SLOWLY DIVING SOUTH.  THIS WILL
KEEP THE TROF AXIS WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY.  MUCH OF THE LIFT WITH THE SECOND CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NEW MEXICO BUT THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF WEAK LIFT THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  THE DRIER AIR
AROUND 700HPA WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO ADVECT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE OFF AND ON
THROUGH THE DAY AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO RISE BACK TO
AROUND 30 TO 31 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW WILL OCCUR.

HARD TO GET ANY ADDITIONAL REPORTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AT THIS EARLY
HOUR BUT 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ON THE GROUND WITH GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.  ROAD CONDITIONS AROUND
THE HUB CITY APPEAR TO BE SLUSHY WITH A FEW ICY SPOTS REPORTED ON
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.  GRAND TOTAL BY THE TIME THINGS ARE DONE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REDUCED AMOUNTS WE HAVE IN OUR
GRAPHICAST...6-8 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...1-4
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS HANDLE THIS NICELY AND WILL CONTINUE THESE
TO THEIR COMPLETION TIME.

WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO SEE SNOWFALL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TROF AXIS
APPROACHES THE REGION AND THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD.  THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SNOW FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES BY SUNRISE FRIDAY BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE SNOW SHUT OFF.  CLEARING SKIES
BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL SET UP A
CHILLY MORNING FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS HIGH SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND TEENS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CAPROCK...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH IF WINDS GO CALM
AND SKIES MANAGE TO TOTALLY CLEAR OUT BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
RATHER TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S WINTER
STORM. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BECOMES SITUATED
BETWEEN TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT AND
RIDGING OVER THE WEST. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT
A SOLID WARMING TREND...THOUGH WE HAVE TEMPERED THE WARMING A
BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...WHERE SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK
WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE. EVEN SO...HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S SHOULD
BECOME COMMONPLACE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND /ASIDE
FROM MAYBE A FEW 40S LINGERING NORTHWEST/...WITH PLENTY OF SUN TO GO
AROUND. THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFTED EASTWARD MORE SQUARELY OVER THE REGION. ONE OR MORE
DISTURBANCES MAY ATTEMPT TO RIDE UP AND INTO/THROUGH THE RIDGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ALL THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO MUSTER LOCALLY WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28   8  36  13 / 100  10   0   0
TULIA         30  12  38  21 / 100  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     30  15  38  22 / 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     31  14  39  21 / 100  40  10   0
LUBBOCK       32  16  40  22 / 100  40  10   0
DENVER CITY   32  19  39  24 / 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    32  18  40  22 / 100  50  10   0
CHILDRESS     35  23  45  28 / 100  20  10   0
SPUR          32  22  44  26 / 100  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     36  27  47  27 / 100  50  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
TXZ024>026-028>044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TXZ021>023-
027.

&&

$$

14/23
574
FXUS64 KLUB 220554
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVIER SNOW RATES APPEAR TO BE MOVING THROUGH WITH MOSTLY LIGHTER
RATES TO FOLLOW. AFTER A LET UP EARLY THIS MORNING...WE STILL
EXPECT SNOW TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY LIGHT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAVORED. WE
HAVE TRIMMED BACK OFF ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...EXCEPT OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY IFR WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A
FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH LIKELY WILL LOWER TO LIFR
AT TIMES...BUT IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AT THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

AVIATION...
A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS TAF PACKAGE. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL SITES THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. BEST GUESSES ON TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...ABOUT 02Z-04Z
AT KPVW...04Z-06Z AT KLBB...AND 06Z-08Z AT KCDS. THIS WAS OUR
PRIMARY EMPHASIS THIS FORECAST WHILE WE RETAINED PREVIOUS LOWERING
OF CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES. WE STILL EXPECT TO CHANGE TO
HEAVIER SNOW RATES AT SOME POINT EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONSWHICH
WE WILL ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS FURTHER FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL
SOLUTIONS KEEP CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW IFR LEVELS FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

.SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHORT TERM...
MESHING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A 100+ KNOT
JET STREAK EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED A SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT REACHING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE
UNTIL SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
OWING TO A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE.

COOLING WILL ENSUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLUMN MOISTENING...
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SEEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW COME MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIQUID INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAINTAINING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT DAYBREAK. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AREAS EAST OF
ASPERMONT TO ABOUT GUTHRIE WILL COOL QUITE ENOUGH TO SEE MUCH
SNOW...BUT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET
BULB COOLING SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER TO ALLOW
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ATTEMPTS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...WHILE ALL SNOW FALLS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
DEPARTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY RUSH HOUR.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN PARMER COUNTY...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN REGARDS TO DEFORMATION
BANDING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE
EAST...VALID FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT RATHER
STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS
WITH A BLOCKING TYPE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIF. THAT UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS...BUT EVEN THE
MORE ERN SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR WEST. ANY SNOW FIELD/WET
GROUND MAY AFFECT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE THOSE AREAS IN PARTICULAR.
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  26   8  34 / 100  90  30   0
TULIA         28  28  12  36 / 100  90  30   0
PLAINVIEW     27  28  15  35 / 100 100  40  10
LEVELLAND     29  29  15  37 /  90 100  60  10
LUBBOCK       29  29  17  38 / 100 100  60  10
DENVER CITY   28  29  17  37 /  90 100  60  10
BROWNFIELD    28  29  18  39 /  90 100  60  10
CHILDRESS     31  34  22  44 / 100  90  20  10
SPUR          30  30  21  42 / 100 100  50  10
ASPERMONT     32  37  26  46 / 100 100  50  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ024>026-028>044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ021>023-027.

&&

$$

05/99/05
292
FXUS64 KLUB 212342
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
542 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...
A POTENT WINTER STORM WILL BE MOVING IN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THIS TAF PACKAGE. RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS ALL SITES THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. BEST GUESSES ON TRANSITION
TO SNOW IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...ABOUT 02Z-04Z
AT KPVW...04Z-06Z AT KLBB...AND 06Z-08Z AT KCDS. THIS WAS OUR
PRIMARY EMPHASIS THIS FORECAST WHILE WE RETAINED PREVIOUS LOWERING
OF CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITIES. WE STILL EXPECT TO CHANGE TO
HEAVIER SNOW RATES AT SOME POINT EITHER LATER TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONSWHICH
WE WILL ATTEMPT TO ADDRESS FURTHER FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. ALL
SOLUTIONS KEEP CONDITIONS AT OR BELOW IFR LEVELS FOR THE LATER
PERIODS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX/

..SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHORT TERM...
MESHING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A 100+ KNOT
JET STREAK EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED A SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT REACHING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE
UNTIL SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
OWING TO A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE.

COOLING WILL ENSUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLUMN MOISTENING...
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SEEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW COME MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIQUID INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAINTAINING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT DAYBREAK. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AREAS EAST OF
ASPERMONT TO ABOUT GUTHRIE WILL COOL QUITE ENOUGH TO SEE MUCH
SNOW...BUT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET
BULB COOLING SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER TO ALLOW
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ATTEMPTS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...WHILE ALL SNOW FALLS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
DEPARTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY RUSH HOUR.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN PARMER COUNTY...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN REGARDS TO DEFORMATION
BANDING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE
EAST...VALID FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT RATHER
STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS
WITH A BLOCKING TYPE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIF. THAT UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS...BUT EVEN THE
MORE ERN SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR WEST. ANY SNOW FIELD/WET
GROUND MAY AFFECT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE THOSE AREAS IN PARTICULAR.
MILDER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  26   8  34  13 / 100 100  30   0   0
TULIA         27  28  12  35  21 / 100 100  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     27  28  15  36  22 / 100 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     28  28  15  38  21 / 100 100  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       29  29  17  38  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   28  29  18  38  24 / 100 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    28  29  18  39  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
CHILDRESS     31  33  22  44  28 / 100 100  20  10   0
SPUR          30  30  22  43  26 / 100 100  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     32  37  26  46  27 / 100 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

99/99/05
086
FXUS64 KLUB 212035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
235 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
MESHING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A 100+ KNOT
JET STREAK EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED A SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT REACHING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE
UNTIL SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
OWING TO A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE.

COOLING WILL ENSUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLUMN MOISTENING...
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SEEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW COME MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIQUID INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAINTAINING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT DAYBREAK. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AREAS EAST OF
ASPERMONT TO ABOUT GUTHRIE WILL COOL QUITE ENOUGH TO SEE MUCH
SNOW...BUT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET
BULB COOLING SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER TO ALLOW
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ATTEMPTS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...WHILE ALL SNOW FALLS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
DEPARTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY RUSH HOUR.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN PARMER COUNTY...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN REGARDS TO DEFORMATION
BANDING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE
EAST...VALID FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT RATHER
STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS
WITH A BLOCKING TYPE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIF. THAT UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS...BUT EVEN THE
MORE ERN SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR WEST. ANY SNOW FIELD/WET
GROUND MAY AFFECT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE THOSE AREAS IN PARTICULAR.
MIDLER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  26   8  34  13 / 100 100  30   0   0
TULIA         27  28  12  35  21 / 100 100  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     27  28  15  36  22 / 100 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     28  28  15  38  21 / 100 100  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       29  29  17  38  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   28  29  18  38  24 / 100 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    28  29  18  39  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
CHILDRESS     31  33  22  44  28 / 100 100  20  10   0
SPUR          30  30  22  43  26 / 100 100  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     32  37  26  46  27 / 100 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

31/07
988
FXUS64 KLUB 212035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
235 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
MESHING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A 100+ KNOT
JET STREAK EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED A SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT REACHING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE
UNTIL SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
OWING TO A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE.

COOLING WILL ENSUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLUMN MOISTENING...
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SEEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW COME MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIQUID INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAINTAINING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT DAYBREAK. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AREAS EAST OF
ASPERMONT TO ABOUT GUTHRIE WILL COOL QUITE ENOUGH TO SEE MUCH
SNOW...BUT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET
BULB COOLING SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER TO ALLOW
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ATTEMPTS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...WHILE ALL SNOW FALLS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
DEPARTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY RUSH HOUR.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN PARMER COUNTY...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN REGARDS TO DEFORMATION
BANDING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE
EAST...VALID FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT RATHER
STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS
WITH A BLOCKING TYPE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIF. THAT UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS...BUT EVEN THE
MORE ERN SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR WEST. ANY SNOW FIELD/WET
GROUND MAY AFFECT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE THOSE AREAS IN PARTICULAR.
MIDLER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  26   8  34  13 / 100 100  30   0   0
TULIA         27  28  12  35  21 / 100 100  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     27  28  15  36  22 / 100 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     28  28  15  38  21 / 100 100  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       29  29  17  38  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   28  29  18  38  24 / 100 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    28  29  18  39  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
CHILDRESS     31  33  22  44  28 / 100 100  20  10   0
SPUR          30  30  22  43  26 / 100 100  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     32  37  26  46  27 / 100 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

31/07
667
FXUS64 KLUB 212035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
235 PM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION THIS
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
MESHING OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGRATING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. A 100+ KNOT
JET STREAK EXTENDING OUT AHEAD OF THE LATTER DISTURBANCE INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED A SHIELD OF SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE
WESTERN EXTENT REACHING INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. FARTHER WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...RADAR RETURNS
CONTINUE TO FILL IN AS LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN
DISTURBANCE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO REMAIN IN THE LIQUID PHASE
UNTIL SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 40S/LOW 50S
OWING TO A GOOD DEAL OF EARLY DAY SUNSHINE.

COOLING WILL ENSUE THIS EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTERS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH CONTINUED COLUMN MOISTENING...
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM RAIN TO SNOW. SHOULD SEE
THIS TAKE PLACE EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
AND ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SEEING PREDOMINANTLY SNOW COME MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LIQUID INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ONLY
SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS MAINTAINING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT DAYBREAK. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER AREAS EAST OF
ASPERMONT TO ABOUT GUTHRIE WILL COOL QUITE ENOUGH TO SEE MUCH
SNOW...BUT COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WET
BULB COOLING SHOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH STRONG
LIFT AND SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER TO ALLOW
FROZEN HYDROMETEORS TO REACH THE GROUND.

A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD CONTINUE EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
THURSDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING ATTEMPTS TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW-MID 30S...WHILE ALL SNOW FALLS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS WRAP-AROUND SNOW
DEPARTS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY RUSH HOUR.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...3 TO 7 INCHES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY IN PARMER COUNTY...MAY VERY WELL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. THESE TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRANSITION TIME TO SNOW THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...AS WELL AS
INTENSITY OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IN REGARDS TO DEFORMATION
BANDING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WILL UPGRADE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT AND
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL COUNTIES TO THE
EAST...VALID FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER BENIGN.
UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS TO BE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED BUT RATHER
STAGNANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE ERN CONUS
WITH A BLOCKING TYPE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. A LOW IS
PROGGED TO CUT OFF SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIF. THAT UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW LEVEL FROM
THE WEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS AND EJECTS...BUT EVEN THE
MORE ERN SOLUTIONS KEEP PRECIP TO OUR WEST. ANY SNOW FIELD/WET
GROUND MAY AFFECT TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO HAVE CONTINUED
PREVIOUS TREND OF UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE THOSE AREAS IN PARTICULAR.
MIDLER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  26   8  34  13 / 100 100  30   0   0
TULIA         27  28  12  35  21 / 100 100  30  10   0
PLAINVIEW     27  28  15  36  22 / 100 100  30  10   0
LEVELLAND     28  28  15  38  21 / 100 100  60  10   0
LUBBOCK       29  29  17  38  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
DENVER CITY   28  29  18  38  24 / 100 100  60  10   0
BROWNFIELD    28  29  18  39  22 / 100 100  60  10   0
CHILDRESS     31  33  22  44  28 / 100 100  20  10   0
SPUR          30  30  22  43  26 / 100 100  60  10   0
ASPERMONT     32  37  26  46  27 / 100 100  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

$$

31/07
604
FXUS64 KLUB 211753
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.UPDATE...
PERUSAL OF 12Z MODEL SUITES SUGGEST PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING
DETAILS OF UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER/PRECIPITATION EVENT REMAIN ON
TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ATTM.

SRN STREAM JET STREAK EJECTING ACROSS NRN MEXICO WITH CONVECTION
HAVING BROKEN OUT ON THE NOSE OF THIS JET FROM THE BIG BEND INTO
THE TRANS PECOS AND MID LEVEL MOISTENING EVIDENT NWD AND EWD
TOWARD THE SOUTH PLAINS AND BIG COUNTRY. THE NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD ACROSS COLORADO AND UTAH. DIFFLUENCE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH HAS MOISTENED THINGS
CONSIDERABLY FROM NRN NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE NRN PANHANDLE WHERE
LIGHT SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SHIFT SEWD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOIST AND
RELATIVELY STRONG ISENTROPIC MID LEVEL LIFT FORMING ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA. 12Z MODEL RUNS AND LATER HI-RES RUNS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FCST AREA BTWN
00Z AND 06Z WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVING
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE THEN ON THE NOSE OF THE SRN STREAM
JET. BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS ONE OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW...BUT AGAIN...PREVIOUS THINKING STILL LOOKS FINE...AS DO
PRECIP AND SNOW TOTALS. WILL LET HEADLINES RIDE ATTM...BUT LIKELY
UPGRADES TO COME LATER THIS AFTN.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PAIR OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH MID
LEVELS MOISTENING ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP AND LOWERING CIGS BTWN 00Z AND
03Z. PRECIP PHASE A QUESTION WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING WARMED INTO THE
40S. PRECIP TO BEGIN AS RAIN. MIXING OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BY 06Z
AT KLBB AND KPVW. KCDS MORE PROBLEMATIC WITH LOWS NEAR 32F.
FINALLY...EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS.
STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION STARTING OFF AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS MAINLY AT KLBB AND KPVW AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS AT KLBB AND KPVW. SNOW WILL LAST PAST THE
END OF THIS TAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY AT KLBB
AND KPVW. KCDS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THAT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

.CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS PRODUCING A DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS
HELPING TO KEEP LOW 30 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS
INITIALIZED THE TROUGH DECENTLY ENOUGH BUT ARE ALREADY STRUGGLING
WITH WHETHER THIS FEATURE IS STILL AN OPEN WAVE OR HAS STARTED TO
CLOSE OFF.  MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY/POSSIBLY DEVELOP ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW CENTER WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WAVE...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ONSET TIMES OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION START OFF NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
WILL GRADUALLY START TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER IS
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AND
COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HELPING TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.  AN
INITIAL ROUND OF LIFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL HELP TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
THROUGH A THICK LAYER ACROSS THE REGION.  THE LAYERS BETWEEN 285K
AND 300K /OR ROUGHLY FROM 850HPA TO 600HPA/ ALL SHOW STRONG LIFT AND
SATURATION SIGNALS WHICH WOULD FAVOR MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.  THE EXACT TRANSITION TIME FROM LIQUID...TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...TO ALL SNOW REMAINS TRICKY AS ANY CHANGES IN SPEED
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FROM
THE FRONT...OR DRY/MOIST ADIABATIC COOLING FROM LIFT/PRECIPITATION
RESPECTIVELY ALL CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING THE COLUMN.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS NOT HOW HIGH OF POPS TO CARRY AS WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.  THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL.  CURRENT THINKING AND FORECAST WILL
START OFF WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH 6 PM AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL START AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE STARTS TO EXPAND.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO HEAVIER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH TIME.  THE SECOND AREA
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SPREADS TOWARDS THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.  AS THE COLUMN RAPIDLY COOLS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...ALL SNOW COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
9 PM.  RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND REACH THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW CLOSELY BEHIND.  HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ACROSS THAT REGION WHILE A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS KEEPS THE SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.  BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...THE ONLY
AREA THAT COULD STILL SEE ALL RAIN COULD BE THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS AROUND ASPERMONT AS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN
SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN 6 PM TONIGHT/00Z THURSDAY AND 6 AM/12Z THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 5-7 INCHES OF
SNOW.  BECAUSE SNOWFALL WILL START ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS FIRST...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE PARMER...CASTRO...AND
BAILEY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THAT GOES INTO EFFECT AT
6 PM TONIGHT.  WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THE ADDITION OF GARZA COUNTY.  OPTED TO HOLD
OFF UPGRADING THE REST OF THE AREA TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW AS IT
HEADS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EFFORTS IN THE EXTENDED WERE CENTERED STRICTLY AROUND THE
IMPENDING WINTER STORM...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM GRIDS
LARGELY UNTOUCHED.

THE CENTER OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY OPENING AND EJECTING
EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT FOR MOST THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS
LINGERING WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY IF THE
SLOWEST/DEEPEST SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT. THIS MEANS A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.

AT 12Z THURSDAY...IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...IT MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...FROM CHILDRESS THROUGH
JAYTON AND ASPERMONT...THAT THEY MAY SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THE THREAT OF A RAIN/SNOW WINTRY MIX MAY PERSIST MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST ZONES...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. OUT EAST...WHERE THE P-TYPE IS LESS CERTAIN...SNOW
TOTALS ARE ALSO MORE IFFY...BUT WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO FOR MOST SPOTS. THE SNOW MAY LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSEST
TO WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW. A LITTLE SNOW COULD EVEN PERSIST
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WHATEVER FALLS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXPIRATION TIME
OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS 06Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH COULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...SNOW TOTALS OF A HALF A FOOT OR
MORE APPEAR A GOOD BET FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...WITH 8 TO
10 INCHES OR MORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OUT IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEM POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS. BETWEEN THE TWO AREA...INCLUDING IN LUBBOCK...A GENERAL 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW PACK IS IN PLACE. BEYOND
FRIDAY...A MODERATING TREND WILL ENSUE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK
COULD TEMPER THIS WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  25  27   8  33 /  40 100  90  30   0
TULIA         43  28  29  12  36 /  40 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     45  28  30  15  35 /  20 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     45  29  30  15  37 /  20 100  90  50  10
LUBBOCK       47  30  31  17  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
DENVER CITY   44  29  32  18  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
BROWNFIELD    45  29  33  19  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
CHILDRESS     51  32  34  23  44 /  20 100  90  20  10
SPUR          50  31  34  23  43 /  20 100  90  50  10
ASPERMONT     52  33  38  27  46 /  20 100  90  50  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ023-024-028>030-033>036-039>042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027.

&&

$$

07
005
FXUS64 KLUB 211133 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY BUT EXPECT A
GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS MVFR CONDITIONS.
STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION STARTING OFF AS RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS MAINLY AT KLBB AND KPVW AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO RESULT IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE LIFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS AT KLBB AND KPVW. SNOW WILL LAST PAST THE
END OF THIS TAF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY AT KLBB
AND KPVW. KCDS MAY BE FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST THAT SNOW WILL TAPER
OFF BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015/

..CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS PRODUCING A DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS
HELPING TO KEEP LOW 30 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS
INITIALIZED THE TROUGH DECENTLY ENOUGH BUT ARE ALREADY STRUGGLING
WITH WHETHER THIS FEATURE IS STILL AN OPEN WAVE OR HAS STARTED TO
CLOSE OFF.  MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY/POSSIBLY DEVELOP ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW CENTER WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WAVE...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ONSET TIMES OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION START OFF NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
WILL GRADUALLY START TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER IS
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AND
COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HELPING TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.  AN
INITIAL ROUND OF LIFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL HELP TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
THROUGH A THICK LAYER ACROSS THE REGION.  THE LAYERS BETWEEN 285K
AND 300K /OR ROUGHLY FROM 850HPA TO 600HPA/ ALL SHOW STRONG LIFT AND
SATURATION SIGNALS WHICH WOULD FAVOR MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.  THE EXACT TRANSITION TIME FROM LIQUID...TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...TO ALL SNOW REMAINS TRICKY AS ANY CHANGES IN SPEED
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FROM
THE FRONT...OR DRY/MOIST ADIABATIC COOLING FROM LIFT/PRECIPITATION
RESPECTIVELY ALL CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING THE COLUMN.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS NOT HOW HIGH OF POPS TO CARRY AS WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.  THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL.  CURRENT THINKING AND FORECAST WILL
START OFF WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH 6 PM AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL START AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE STARTS TO EXPAND.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO HEAVIER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH TIME.  THE SECOND AREA
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SPREADS TOWARDS THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.  AS THE COLUMN RAPIDLY COOLS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...ALL SNOW COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
9 PM.  RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND REACH THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW CLOSELY BEHIND.  HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ACROSS THAT REGION WHILE A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS KEEPS THE SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.  BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...THE ONLY
AREA THAT COULD STILL SEE ALL RAIN COULD BE THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS AROUND ASPERMONT AS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN
SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN 6 PM TONIGHT/00Z THURSDAY AND 6 AM/12Z THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 5-7 INCHES OF
SNOW.  BECAUSE SNOWFALL WILL START ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS FIRST...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE PARMER...CASTRO...AND
BAILEY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THAT GOES INTO EFFECT AT
6 PM TONIGHT.  WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THE ADDITION OF GARZA COUNTY.  OPTED TO HOLD
OFF UPGRADING THE REST OF THE AREA TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW AS IT
HEADS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EFFORTS IN THE EXTENDED WERE CENTERED STRICTLY AROUND THE
IMPENDING WINTER STORM...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM GRIDS
LARGELY UNTOUCHED.

THE CENTER OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY OPENING AND EJECTING
EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT FOR MOST THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS
LINGERING WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY IF THE
SLOWEST/DEEPEST SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT. THIS MEANS A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.

AT 12Z THURSDAY...IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...IT MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...FROM CHILDRESS THROUGH
JAYTON AND ASPERMONT...THAT THEY MAY SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THE THREAT OF A RAIN/SNOW WINTRY MIX MAY PERSIST MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST ZONES...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. OUT EAST...WHERE THE P-TYPE IS LESS CERTAIN...SNOW
TOTALS ARE ALSO MORE IFFY...BUT WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO FOR MOST SPOTS. THE SNOW MAY LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSEST
TO WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW. A LITTLE SNOW COULD EVEN PERSIST
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WHATEVER FALLS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXPIRATION TIME
OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS 06Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH COULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...SNOW TOTALS OF A HALF A FOOT OR
MORE APPEAR A GOOD BET FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...WITH 8 TO
10 INCHES OR MORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OUT IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEM POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS. BETWEEN THE TWO AREA...INCLUDING IN LUBBOCK...A GENERAL 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW PACK IS IN PLACE. BEYOND
FRIDAY...A MODERATING TREND WILL ENSUE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK
COULD TEMPER THIS WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  25  27   8  33 /  40 100  90  30   0
TULIA         43  28  29  12  36 /  40 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     45  28  30  15  35 /  20 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     45  29  30  15  37 /  20 100  90  50  10
LUBBOCK       47  30  31  17  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
DENVER CITY   44  29  32  18  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
BROWNFIELD    45  29  33  19  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
CHILDRESS     51  32  34  23  44 /  20 100  90  20  10
SPUR          50  31  34  23  43 /  20 100  90  50  10
ASPERMONT     52  33  38  27  46 /  20 100  90  50  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023-024-028>030-033>036-039>042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027.

&&

$$

99/99/99
022
FXUS64 KLUB 211031
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
431 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL TO WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS PRODUCING A DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND IS
HELPING TO KEEP LOW 30 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  MODELS
INITIALIZED THE TROUGH DECENTLY ENOUGH BUT ARE ALREADY STRUGGLING
WITH WHETHER THIS FEATURE IS STILL AN OPEN WAVE OR HAS STARTED TO
CLOSE OFF.  MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO QUICKLY BRING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL HELP TO SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY/POSSIBLY DEVELOP ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW CENTER WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BASED ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE WAVE...PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS AND ONLY HAD TO MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND ONSET TIMES OF SNOW IN THE GRIDS.
EXPECT TO SEE PRECIPITATION START OFF NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
WILL GRADUALLY START TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  DEPENDING ON HOW THICK THE CLOUD COVER IS
THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AND
COOLER HIGHS THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICKER TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
HELPING TO COOL THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE EVENT PROGRESSES.  AN
INITIAL ROUND OF LIFT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL HELP TO INITIATE PRECIPITATION BUT THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS
THROUGH A THICK LAYER ACROSS THE REGION.  THE LAYERS BETWEEN 285K
AND 300K /OR ROUGHLY FROM 850HPA TO 600HPA/ ALL SHOW STRONG LIFT AND
SATURATION SIGNALS WHICH WOULD FAVOR MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION.  THE EXACT TRANSITION TIME FROM LIQUID...TO A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...TO ALL SNOW REMAINS TRICKY AS ANY CHANGES IN SPEED
OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS FROM
THE FRONT...OR DRY/MOIST ADIABATIC COOLING FROM LIFT/PRECIPITATION
RESPECTIVELY ALL CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING THE COLUMN.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS NOT HOW HIGH OF POPS TO CARRY AS WE ARE
PRETTY MUCH INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.  THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL.  CURRENT THINKING AND FORECAST WILL
START OFF WITH ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH 6 PM AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL START AFTER SUNSET ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE STARTS TO EXPAND.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TWO HEAVIER AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION...ONE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH WITH TIME.  THE SECOND AREA
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SPREADS TOWARDS THE
BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY.  AS THE COLUMN RAPIDLY COOLS ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...ALL SNOW COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS
9 PM.  RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND REACH THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW CLOSELY BEHIND.  HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD START TO
DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE STRONGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP
ACROSS THAT REGION WHILE A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS KEEPS THE SECOND AREA OF PRECIPITATION ALL LIQUID
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT.  BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING...THE ONLY
AREA THAT COULD STILL SEE ALL RAIN COULD BE THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS AROUND ASPERMONT AS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TRANSITION
TO ALL SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.

ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL BE BELOW THE FAVORED DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL RESULT IN
SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SNOW AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BETWEEN 6 PM TONIGHT/00Z THURSDAY AND 6 AM/12Z THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 5-7 INCHES OF
SNOW.  BECAUSE SNOWFALL WILL START ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS FIRST...OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE PARMER...CASTRO...AND
BAILEY COUNTIES TO A WINTER STORM WARNING THAT GOES INTO EFFECT AT
6 PM TONIGHT.  WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT WITH THE ADDITION OF GARZA COUNTY.  OPTED TO HOLD
OFF UPGRADING THE REST OF THE AREA TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR HOW THE
INCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW AS IT
HEADS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EFFORTS IN THE EXTENDED WERE CENTERED STRICTLY AROUND THE
IMPENDING WINTER STORM...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM GRIDS
LARGELY UNTOUCHED.

THE CENTER OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO BE NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE LOW SHOULD DIG SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY OPENING AND EJECTING
EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE SLOWER AND DEEPER
EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MEAN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LARGE
SCALE LIFT FOR MOST THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION ON THURSDAY...PERHAPS
LINGERING WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY IF THE
SLOWEST/DEEPEST SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT. THIS MEANS A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FOR THE REGION.

AT 12Z THURSDAY...IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION FALLING ON THE CAPROCK WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...IT MAY REMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...FROM CHILDRESS THROUGH
JAYTON AND ASPERMONT...THAT THEY MAY SEE SOME MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THE THREAT OF A RAIN/SNOW WINTRY MIX MAY PERSIST MUCH OF
THE DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST ZONES...THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FA SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW. SEVERAL MORE INCHES
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE CAPROCK THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. OUT EAST...WHERE THE P-TYPE IS LESS CERTAIN...SNOW
TOTALS ARE ALSO MORE IFFY...BUT WE CURRENTLY HAVE AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO FOR MOST SPOTS. THE SNOW MAY LINGER WELL INTO THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...CLOSEST
TO WHAT REMAINS OF THE UPPER LOW. A LITTLE SNOW COULD EVEN PERSIST
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT WHATEVER FALLS
SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. THUS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE EXPIRATION TIME
OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AS 06Z FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOW...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH COULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE THEY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE...SNOW TOTALS OF A HALF A FOOT OR
MORE APPEAR A GOOD BET FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN MOST ZONES...WITH 8 TO
10 INCHES OR MORE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. OUT IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS...SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SEEM POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE
TIMING OF THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THIS. BETWEEN THE TWO AREA...INCLUDING IN LUBBOCK...A GENERAL 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS...WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
RECOVER...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW PACK IS IN PLACE. BEYOND
FRIDAY...A MODERATING TREND WILL ENSUE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK
COULD TEMPER THIS WARMING TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  25  27   8  33 /  40 100  90  30   0
TULIA         43  28  29  12  36 /  40 100  90  30  10
PLAINVIEW     45  28  30  15  35 /  20 100  90  30  10
LEVELLAND     45  29  30  15  37 /  20 100  90  50  10
LUBBOCK       47  30  31  17  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
DENVER CITY   44  29  32  18  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
BROWNFIELD    45  29  33  19  36 /  20 100  90  50  10
CHILDRESS     51  32  34  23  44 /  20 100  90  20  10
SPUR          50  31  34  23  43 /  20 100  90  50  10
ASPERMONT     52  33  38  27  46 /  20 100  90  50  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023-024-028>030-033>036-039>042.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021-022-027.

&&

$$

14/23
106
FXUS64 KLUB 210534
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...
A DETERIORATING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A
POTENT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TAKES ROOT
JUST TO OUR WEST. MOST SOLUTIONS LEAD TO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CYCLE WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE
WEDNESDAY AND TRENDING TOWARDS SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING AT KPVW...
SWITCH OVER AT KLBB AND KCDS APPEARS MOSTLY LIKELY AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...CURRENT VFR SHOULD HOLD UNTIL EARLY
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY WHEN NEAR SURFACE SATURATED CONDITIONS
MAY STILL EVOLVE STARTING WITH KPVW AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO
KLBB THOUGH SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH TIMING AND DEGREE OF
DEGRADATION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR HOW SHORT TERM
SITUATION CHANGES LATER TONIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT
LEAST SLIGHT DROP IN VISIBILITIES AND EXISTENCE OF A VERY LOW
CLOUD DECK BOTH KPVW AND KLBB. NOW APPEARS A BETTER CHANCE OF A
SOLID MVFR LAYER DEVELOPING MIDDAY TO MID AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THAT
LOWERING AND DETERIORATING TREND MENTIONED ABOVE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

AVIATION...
COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE OVERNIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND A DECENT LIKELIHOOD
FOR AN MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK NEAR
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LAYER MAY EXPAND INTO KCDS AS WELL BY
AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR OR
JUST AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AND WE WILL READDRESS START TIMES FOR
MIXED PHASE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST HANDLES THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS THIS
EVENING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SOME STRATUS FILTER THROUGH THE NRN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT AS MODELS INDICATED THAT PROGRESSION HAS
STALLED. WRF-NAM IN PARTICULAR TRIES TO EDGE THOSE CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO
LINE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO LOW ATTM AND
WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN
ENERGY WILL DIG SEWD TO THE COLORADO ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WHILE A JET
STREAM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION WILL INDUCE
INCREASINGLY MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS ABLE TO SATURATE...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL EXIST. PRECIP PHASE HERE FAVORS RAIN INITIALLY BASED ON
LOW LEVEL TEMPS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH LATE IN
THE DAY FOR SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEFORE EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL SEE ISENTROPIC
LIFT COMBINE WITH THE LIFT FROM THE SRN STREAM JET STREAK TO CREATE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS PROGGED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SRN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
PHASING OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
KICKS INTO FULL SWING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE
A SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH EARLIER...BEFORE THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE
POSITIVELY TILTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING
DIV-Q FIELDS AND OMEGA PROFILES LOOK MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR
ABUNDANT LIFT ATOP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IN
TANDEM WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE OMEGA PROFILES...LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND LIKELY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
RATES AT TIMES.

THIS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S...BUT A SWITCH BACK TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THE PRESENCE OF A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...ALTHOUGH DECREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND AT LEAST A LITTLE DRYING ALOFT SHOULD BE TAKING HOLD
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR RISING MOTION.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK...WITH 4-6
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD GENERALLY SEE 1-3
INCHES...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE RAIN MAY REMAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION MODE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THESE RANGES SHOULD
GENERALLY REFLECT THE GRAND NATURE OF THE EVENT. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY WARMUP FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK...RISING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY TO 50S/60S
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  40  24  28  13 /   0  40 100  90  30
TULIA         32  42  27  30  16 /   0  40 100  90  30
PLAINVIEW     32  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LEVELLAND     31  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LUBBOCK       32  47  29  33  21 /   0  20 100  90  30
DENVER CITY   32  45  28  32  21 /   0  20  80  90  30
BROWNFIELD    32  46  28  32  21 /   0  20  90  90  30
CHILDRESS     36  48  30  38  25 /   0  20 100  80  20
SPUR          34  49  30  36  25 /   0  20 100  90  30
ASPERMONT     35  52  33  39  28 /   0  20 100  90  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

99/99/05
096
FXUS64 KLUB 202344
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
544 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...
COOL SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE OVERNIGHT WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AND A DECENT LIKELIHOOD
FOR AN MVFR CLOUD LAYER TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK NEAR
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LAYER MAY EXPAND INTO KCDS AS WELL BY
AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED TO COMMENCE NEAR OR
JUST AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AND WE WILL READDRESS START TIMES FOR
MIXED PHASE CHANGING TO SNOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST HANDLES THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS THIS
EVENING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SOME STRATUS FILTER THROUGH THE NRN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT AS MODELS INDICATED THAT PROGRESSION HAS
STALLED. WRF-NAM IN PARTICULAR TRIES TO EDGE THOSE CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO
LINE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO LOW ATTM AND
WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN
ENERGY WILL DIG SEWD TO THE COLORADO ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WHILE A JET
STREAM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION WILL INDUCE
INCREASINGLY MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS ABLE TO SATURATE...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL EXIST. PRECIP PHASE HERE FAVORS RAIN INITIALLY BASED ON
LOW LEVEL TEMPS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH LATE IN
THE DAY FOR SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEFORE EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL SEE ISENTROPIC
LIFT COMBINE WITH THE LIFT FROM THE SRN STREAM JET STREAK TO CREATE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS PROGGED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SRN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
PHASING OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
KICKS INTO FULL SWING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE
A SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH EARLIER...BEFORE THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE
POSITIVELY TILTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING
DIV-Q FIELDS AND OMEGA PROFILES LOOK MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR
ABUNDANT LIFT ATOP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IN
TANDEM WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE OMEGA PROFILES...LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND LIKELY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
RATES AT TIMES.

THIS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S...BUT A SWITCH BACK TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THE PRESENCE OF A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...ALTHOUGH DECREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND AT LEAST A LITTLE DRYING ALOFT SHOULD BE TAKING HOLD
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR RISING MOTION.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK...WITH 4-6
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD GENERALLY SEE 1-3
INCHES...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE RAIN MAY REMAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION MODE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THESE RANGES SHOULD
GENERALLY REFLECT THE GRAND NATURE OF THE EVENT. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY WARMUP FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK...RISING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY TO 50S/60S
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  40  24  28  13 /   0  40 100  90  30
TULIA         32  42  27  30  16 /   0  40 100  90  30
PLAINVIEW     32  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LEVELLAND     31  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LUBBOCK       32  47  29  33  21 /   0  20 100  90  30
DENVER CITY   32  45  28  32  21 /   0  20  80  90  30
BROWNFIELD    32  46  28  32  21 /   0  20  90  90  30
CHILDRESS     36  48  30  38  25 /   0  20 100  80  20
SPUR          34  49  30  36  25 /   0  20 100  90  30
ASPERMONT     35  52  33  39  28 /   0  20 100  90  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

99/99/05
618
FXUS64 KLUB 202147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST HANDLES THE QUIET BEFORE THE STORM.
POST-FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 10 KTS THIS
EVENING. HAVE BEEN WATCHING SOME STRATUS FILTER THROUGH THE NRN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE...BUT AS MODELS INDICATED THAT PROGRESSION HAS
STALLED. WRF-NAM IN PARTICULAR TRIES TO EDGE THOSE CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST UPSLOPE TYPE FLOW
COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP TOWARD THE NEW MEXICO
LINE BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO LOW ATTM AND
WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST. THE MAIN
ENERGY WILL DIG SEWD TO THE COLORADO ROCKIES WEDNESDAY WHILE A JET
STREAM AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM MOVE
QUICKLY EWD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION WILL INDUCE
INCREASINGLY MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND...DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS ABLE TO SATURATE...POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY. BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
AFTN ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES WHERE BEST COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND THE DYNAMIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WILL EXIST. PRECIP PHASE HERE FAVORS RAIN INITIALLY BASED ON
LOW LEVEL TEMPS...BUT COULD SEE TEMPS DROP QUICKLY ENOUGH LATE IN
THE DAY FOR SOME SNOW TO BEGIN MIXING IN BEFORE EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND CONCHO VALLEY WILL SEE ISENTROPIC
LIFT COMBINE WITH THE LIFT FROM THE SRN STREAM JET STREAK TO CREATE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS PROGGED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...POSSIBLY AS
FAR NORTH AS THE SRN PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PHASING OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED ENERGY WILL CONTINUE IN VICINITY OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION
KICKS INTO FULL SWING. A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD ENCOMPASS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING WHERE
A SURGE OF COOLER AIR FILTERS SOUTH EARLIER...BEFORE THIS
TRANSITION CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE
POSITIVELY TILTED NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DYNAMICS ALOFT INCLUDING
DIV-Q FIELDS AND OMEGA PROFILES LOOK MORE THAN FAVORABLE FOR
ABUNDANT LIFT ATOP MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER IN
TANDEM WITH THESE IMPRESSIVE OMEGA PROFILES...LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND LIKELY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
RATES AT TIMES.

THIS COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN IN THE FAR EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER
30S...BUT A SWITCH BACK TO SNOW SHOULD OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES. AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSES OVERHEAD THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT...THE PRESENCE OF A
DISTINCT TROWAL FEATURE COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE...ALTHOUGH DECREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND AT LEAST A LITTLE DRYING ALOFT SHOULD BE TAKING HOLD
LATER INTO THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR STRENGTH/PLACEMENT
OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH FOR ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR RISING MOTION.

WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE 6-8 INCH RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK...WITH 4-6
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.
AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD GENERALLY SEE 1-3
INCHES...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE EASTERN ROLLING
PLAINS WHERE RAIN MAY REMAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION MODE.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR...BUT THESE RANGES SHOULD
GENERALLY REFLECT THE GRAND NATURE OF THE EVENT. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO COVER THE PERIOD FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A STEADY WARMUP FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH A FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES
IN CHECK...RISING FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FRIDAY TO 50S/60S
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  40  24  28  13 /   0  40 100  90  30
TULIA         32  42  27  30  16 /   0  40 100  90  30
PLAINVIEW     32  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LEVELLAND     31  45  28  31  19 /   0  20 100  90  30
LUBBOCK       32  47  29  33  21 /   0  20 100  90  30
DENVER CITY   32  45  28  32  21 /   0  20  80  90  30
BROWNFIELD    32  46  28  32  21 /   0  20  90  90  30
CHILDRESS     36  48  30  38  25 /   0  20 100  80  20
SPUR          34  49  30  36  25 /   0  20 100  90  30
ASPERMONT     35  52  33  39  28 /   0  20 100  90  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

07/31
581
FXUS64 KLUB 201725
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXCEPTION COULD BE AT KCDS AND KLBB WHERE SOME MORNING FOG AND/OR
STRATUS MAY BACK IN FROM THE WEST. IN THE NEAR TERM NORTH TO NE
SFC WINDS AOA 15 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTN AS SFC PRESSURE
INCREASES BEHIND A COLD FRONT. PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX THIS
EVENING ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DECREASE. LIGHT NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME FOG OR LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
THE NM STATE LINE...AND AGAIN...WITH POTENTIAL TO BUILD EWD WITH
TIME. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AND WILL
KEEP RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE EXPECT CONTINUED DRY MILD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING OUT NEAR 15 OR 20 MPH AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY.  SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE PROSPECTS FOR A MID-WEEK WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES /NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK/ WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...VALID FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

THE RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS A RATHER MINOR WAVE
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHARPENS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHILE PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A FAVORED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL
APPEARS THE THRUST OF THIS INITIAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD GRAZE THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD THEN
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN
BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...LIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...WITH THE LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SUITE WHILE ALSO EXPANDING IN AREA TO
ENCOMPASS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET IN THE ACT. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING POPS THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE P-TYPE DURING THIS EVENT. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIXING IN OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING LIFT SHOULD QUICKLY COOL THE VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z NWP RUNS SHOWED LUBBOCK CHANGING TO SNOW
BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM NOW INDICATE
THE CHANGEOVER COULD BE DELAYED TO 9-12Z. OBVIOUSLY...THIS
CHANGEOVER TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL IN PREDICTING HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ATTM...WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MENTION PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY...EXPANDING
TO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SNOW
WOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...THOUGH RAIN OR SNOW COULD BE FALLING FURTHER
EAST...DEPENDING ON THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES /AROUND
ASPERMONT AND GUTHRIE/ MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN
MOSTLY/ALL RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY LATE
IN THE DAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST YIELDS SNOW TOTALS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
FA...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING
LUBBOCK...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY...THOUGH IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION OCCURS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AFTER THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WINTER STORM DEPARTS...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE NWP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND TEMPER THE WARMING TREND. OF COURSE...ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THE
LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE TREND AND
THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  42  24  29 /   0   0  30  70  60
TULIA         53  29  42  27  31 /   0   0  30  70  50
PLAINVIEW     55  30  45  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  50
LEVELLAND     58  29  47  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  47  29  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  30  44  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
BROWNFIELD    61  30  46  28  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
CHILDRESS     58  34  47  31  43 /   0   0  10  70  40
SPUR          59  31  49  31  38 /   0   0  10  70  60
ASPERMONT     61  33  51  34  40 /   0   0  20  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033-034.

&&

$$

07
097
FXUS64 KLUB 201148
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WE EXPECT CONTINUED DRY MILD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING OUT NEAR 15 OR 20 MPH AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY.  SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...
THE PROSPECTS FOR A MID-WEEK WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES /NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK/ WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...VALID FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

THE RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS A RATHER MINOR WAVE
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHARPENS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHILE PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A FAVORED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL
APPEARS THE THRUST OF THIS INITIAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD GRAZE THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD THEN
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN
BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...LIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...WITH THE LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SUITE WHILE ALSO EXPANDING IN AREA TO
ENCOMPASS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET IN THE ACT. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING POPS THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE P-TYPE DURING THIS EVENT. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIXING IN OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING LIFT SHOULD QUICKLY COOL THE VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z NWP RUNS SHOWED LUBBOCK CHANGING TO SNOW
BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM NOW INDICATE
THE CHANGEOVER COULD BE DELAYED TO 9-12Z. OBVIOUSLY...THIS
CHANGEOVER TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL IN PREDICTING HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ATTM...WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MENTION PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY...EXPANDING
TO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SNOW
WOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...THOUGH RAIN OR SNOW COULD BE FALLING FURTHER
EAST...DEPENDING ON THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES /AROUND
ASPERMONT AND GUTHRIE/ MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN
MOSTLY/ALL RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY LATE
IN THE DAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST YIELDS SNOW TOTALS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
FA...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING
LUBBOCK...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY...THOUGH IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION OCCURS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AFTER THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WINTER STORM DEPARTS...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE NWP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND TEMPER THE WARMING TREND. OF COURSE...ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THE
LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE TREND AND
THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  42  24  29 /   0   0  30  70  60
TULIA         53  29  42  27  31 /   0   0  30  70  50
PLAINVIEW     55  30  45  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  50
LEVELLAND     58  29  47  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  48  29  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  30  44  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
BROWNFIELD    61  30  46  28  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
CHILDRESS     58  34  47  31  43 /   0   0  10  70  40
SPUR          59  31  49  31  38 /   0   0  10  70  60
ASPERMONT     61  33  51  34  40 /   0   0  20  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033-034.

&&

$$

04/23/04
627
FXUS64 KLUB 201054 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
454 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WE EXPECT CONTINUED DRY MILD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING OUT NEAR 15 OR 20 MPH AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY.  SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE PROSPECTS FOR A MID-WEEK WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES /NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK/ WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...VALID FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

THE RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS A RATHER MINOR WAVE
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHARPENS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHILE PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A FAVORED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL
APPEARS THE THRUST OF THIS INITIAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD GRAZE THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD THEN
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN
BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...LIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...WITH THE LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SUITE WHILE ALSO EXPANDING IN AREA TO
ENCOMPASS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET IN THE ACT. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING POPS THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE P-TYPE DURING THIS EVENT. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIXING IN OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING LIFT SHOULD QUICKLY COOL THE VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z NWP RUNS SHOWED LUBBOCK CHANGING TO SNOW
BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM NOW INDICATE
THE CHANGEOVER COULD BE DELAYED TO 9-12Z. OBVIOUSLY...THIS
CHANGEOVER TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL IN PREDICTING HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ATTM...WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MENTION PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY...EXPANDING
TO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SNOW
WOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...THOUGH RAIN OR SNOW COULD BE FALLING FURTHER
EAST...DEPENDING ON THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES /AROUND
ASPERMONT AND GUTHRIE/ MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN
MOSTLY/ALL RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY LATE
IN THE DAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST YIELDS SNOW TOTALS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
FA...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING
LUBBOCK...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY...THOUGH IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION OCCURS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AFTER THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WINTER STORM DEPARTS...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE NWP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND TEMPER THE WARMING TREND. OF COURSE...ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THE
LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE TREND AND
THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  42  24  29 /   0   0  30  70  60
TULIA         53  29  42  27  31 /   0   0  30  70  50
PLAINVIEW     55  30  45  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  50
LEVELLAND     58  29  47  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  47  29  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  30  44  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
BROWNFIELD    61  30  46  28  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
CHILDRESS     58  34  47  31  43 /   0   0  10  70  40
SPUR          59  31  49  31  38 /   0   0  10  70  60
ASPERMONT     61  33  51  34  40 /   0   0  20  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033-034.

&&

$$

04/23
082
FXUS64 KLUB 201038
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WE EXPECT CONTINUED DRY MILD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  A COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS PEAKING OUT NEAR 15 OR 20 MPH AND LOWER
AFTERNOON HIGHS BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM MONDAY.  WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY.  SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE PROSPECTS FOR A MID-WEEK WINTER STORM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES /NORTH AND WEST AND LUBBOCK/ WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH...VALID FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

THE RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS A RATHER MINOR WAVE
CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHARPENS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHILE PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A FAVORED AREA OF LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY. IT STILL
APPEARS THE THRUST OF THIS INITIAL LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED TO OUR
NORTH...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD GRAZE THE FAR NORTHERN
ZONES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT SHOULD THEN
CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO BLOSSOM OVER THE TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN
BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO AT LEAST OUR SOUTHEASTERN MOST ZONES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...LIFT FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD...WITH THE LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING SUITE WHILE ALSO EXPANDING IN AREA TO
ENCOMPASS MOST/ALL OF THE CWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
THE SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST. BEFORE ALL IS SAID AND DONE...IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH EVERYONE SHOULD GET IN THE ACT. GIVEN
THIS...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY BEFORE QUICKLY DECREASING POPS THURSDAY
EVENING.

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE P-TYPE DURING THIS EVENT. INITIALLY IT
SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIXING IN OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ALONG WITH THE
INCREASING LIFT SHOULD QUICKLY COOL THE VERTICAL COLUMN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 00Z NWP RUNS SHOWED LUBBOCK CHANGING TO SNOW
BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH THE 06Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM NOW INDICATE
THE CHANGEOVER COULD BE DELAYED TO 9-12Z. OBVIOUSLY...THIS
CHANGEOVER TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL IN PREDICTING HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. ATTM...WE HAVE A RAIN/SNOW MIX
MENTION PRIMARILY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE 06Z THURSDAY...EXPANDING
TO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN SNOW
WOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE MODE NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY...LOCATIONS ON THE CAPROCK SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
SNOW...THOUGH RAIN OR SNOW COULD BE FALLING FURTHER
EAST...DEPENDING ON THE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THOUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES /AROUND
ASPERMONT AND GUTHRIE/ MAY STAY JUST WARM ENOUGH TO REMAIN
MOSTLY/ALL RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END BY LATE
IN THE DAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST YIELDS SNOW TOTALS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE
FA...WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THIS AREA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...INCLUDING
LUBBOCK...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY...THOUGH IT WILL
ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION OCCURS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD SEE LITTLE OR NO SNOW.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY WEATHER
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AFTER THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WINTER STORM DEPARTS...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE NWP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP BRING ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA
AND TEMPER THE WARMING TREND. OF COURSE...ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND
WILL ALSO AFFECT TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THE
LATEST BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS COOLED TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE TREND AND
THE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED AS IS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        53  28  42  24  29 /   0   0  30  70  60
TULIA         53  29  42  27  31 /   0   0  30  70  50
PLAINVIEW     55  30  45  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  50
LEVELLAND     58  29  47  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
LUBBOCK       58  30  47  29  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
DENVER CITY   63  30  44  28  33 /   0   0  20  70  60
BROWNFIELD    61  30  46  28  34 /   0   0  20  70  60
CHILDRESS     58  34  47  31  43 /   0   0  10  70  40
SPUR          59  31  49  31  38 /   0   0  10  70  60
ASPERMONT     61  33  51  34  40 /   0   0  20  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033-034.

&&

$$

04/23
332
FXUS64 KLUB 200536
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONTAL PROGRESS APPEARS TO BE A BIT
SLOWER IN THE LATEST DATA AND HAVE ADJUSTED FROPA AT EACH OF THE
SITES ACCORDINGLY. ASIDE FROM GUSTY NORTHEASTERLIES...CONDITIONS
APPEAR PRETTY TAME FOR OUR THREE SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. LATER TONIGHT...A MODEST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SHOVE SOUTH BUT WITH SLACKED PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RESULT SHOULD BE COOLING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH ONLY
MODEST NORTHEAST BREEZES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON SPLIT STREAM
ENERGY PHASING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
FROM 12Z CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS AND OVERALL FEW CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
GRIDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TWO MAIN AREAS OF LIFT WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST AREA OF LIFT WILL RESULT
IN PRECIP EXPANSION ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NEXT SHOT OF LIFT WILL FORCE EXPANDING PRECIP
FROM THE TRANS PECOS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS PUTTING A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE CWA. ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT TO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE
REGION AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS...SAVE MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. PHASE CHANGES ALWAYS MAKE SNOWFALL AMOUNT
FORECASTING A FUN TIME. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE COMING DAYS. MODEL QPFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OF 4 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW TYPE PRODUCER AND MODEL SOLUTIONS
TEND TO OVERESTIMATE QPF WITH POSITIVE TILT TROUGHS IN THIS NECK OF
THE WOODS. FOR THIS GO AROUND...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BUMPED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NOW.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING CLOUDS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN WILL EVOLVE FOR REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND BLENDED GRID SOLUTIONS OFFER A
BELIEVABLE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER EXISTS IN WAKE OF CURRENT
SYSTEM. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  52  30  43  26 /   0   0   0  30  60
TULIA         32  52  31  45  28 /   0   0   0  20  60
PLAINVIEW     32  54  31  47  29 /   0   0   0  20  60
LEVELLAND     31  57  32  48  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
LUBBOCK       32  57  32  49  30 /   0   0   0  10  60
DENVER CITY   31  62  32  45  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
BROWNFIELD    32  60  33  47  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
CHILDRESS     38  57  34  53  35 /   0   0   0  10  60
SPUR          36  58  34  52  32 /   0   0   0  10  60
ASPERMONT     38  60  35  55  35 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
992
FXUS64 KLUB 192333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
533 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015


.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BEFORE
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING BRING WITH IT SOME BRISK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. LATER TONIGHT...A MODEST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SHOVE SOUTH BUT WITH SLACKED PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RESULT SHOULD BE COOLING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH ONLY
MODEST NORTHEAST BREEZES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON SPLIT STREAM
ENERGY PHASING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
FROM 12Z CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS AND OVERALL FEW CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
GRIDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TWO MAIN AREAS OF LIFT WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST AREA OF LIFT WILL RESULT
IN PRECIP EXPANSION ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NEXT SHOT OF LIFT WILL FORCE EXPANDING PRECIP
FROM THE TRANS PECOS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS PUTTING A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE CWA. ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT TO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE
REGION AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS...SAVE MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. PHASE CHANGES ALWAYS MAKE SNOWFALL AMOUNT
FORECASTING A FUN TIME. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE COMING DAYS. MODEL QPFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OF 4 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW TYPE PRODUCER AND MODEL SOLUTIONS
TEND TO OVERESTIMATE QPF WITH POSITIVE TILT TROUGHS IN THIS NECK OF
THE WOODS. FOR THIS GO AROUND...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BUMPED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NOW.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING CLOUDS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN WILL EVOLVE FOR REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND BLENDED GRID SOLUTIONS OFFER A
BELIEVABLE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER EXISTS IN WAKE OF CURRENT
SYSTEM. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  52  30  43  26 /   0   0   0  30  60
TULIA         32  52  31  45  28 /   0   0   0  20  60
PLAINVIEW     32  54  31  47  29 /   0   0   0  20  60
LEVELLAND     31  57  32  48  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
LUBBOCK       32  57  32  49  30 /   0   0   0  10  60
DENVER CITY   31  62  32  45  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
BROWNFIELD    32  60  33  47  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
CHILDRESS     38  57  34  53  35 /   0   0   0  10  60
SPUR          36  58  34  52  32 /   0   0   0  10  60
ASPERMONT     38  60  35  55  35 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
740
FXUS64 KLUB 192110
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
310 PM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT RIPPLE IN MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WAS PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL SWING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. LATER TONIGHT...A MODEST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SHOVE SOUTH BUT WITH SLACKED PACKING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RESULT SHOULD BE COOLING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH ONLY
MODEST NORTHEAST BREEZES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON SPLIT STREAM
ENERGY PHASING OVER THE SOUTHEN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS
FROM 12Z CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
CONSISTENCY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD LENDING CONFIDENCE
TO GENERAL FORECAST TRENDS AND OVERALL FEW CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS
GRIDS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST TWO MAIN AREAS OF LIFT WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH AND CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. FIRST AREA OF LIFT WILL RESULT
IN PRECIP EXPANSION ACROSS COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NEXT SHOT OF LIFT WILL FORCE EXPANDING PRECIP
FROM THE TRANS PECOS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...THUS PUTTING A SQUEEZE PLAY ON THE CWA. ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS POINT TO PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER ALL OF THE
REGION AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A QUICK PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO SNOW AT MOST LOCATIONS...SAVE MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...AFTER
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. PHASE CHANGES ALWAYS MAKE SNOWFALL AMOUNT
FORECASTING A FUN TIME. NCEP GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WE WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE SNOW POTENTIAL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IN THE COMING DAYS. MODEL QPFS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SNOW OF 4 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT A CLASSIC HEAVY SNOW TYPE PRODUCER AND MODEL SOLUTIONS
TEND TO OVERESTIMATE QPF WITH POSITIVE TILT TROUGHS IN THIS NECK OF
THE WOODS. FOR THIS GO AROUND...WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BUMPED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
INTO THE 1-2 INCH RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NOW.

ANY RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY THURSDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY
DECREASING CLOUDS. DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN WILL EVOLVE FOR REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AND BLENDED GRID SOLUTIONS OFFER A
BELIEVABLE WARM UP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SNOW COVER EXISTS IN WAKE OF CURRENT
SYSTEM. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        30  52  30  43  26 /   0   0   0  30  60
TULIA         32  52  31  45  28 /   0   0   0  20  60
PLAINVIEW     32  54  31  47  29 /   0   0   0  20  60
LEVELLAND     31  57  32  48  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
LUBBOCK       32  57  33  50  30 /   0   0   0  10  60
DENVER CITY   31  62  32  45  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
BROWNFIELD    32  60  33  47  29 /   0   0   0  10  60
CHILDRESS     38  57  34  53  35 /   0   0   0  10  60
SPUR          36  58  34  52  32 /   0   0   0  10  60
ASPERMONT     38  60  35  55  35 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/13
228
FXUS64 KLUB 191716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1116 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR DOMINATED. VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT SEEPS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WILL VISIT NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY THOUGH IT
WILL COME WITHOUT THE GUSTY WINDS OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION BUT THEY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN TO BRING A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIGHT BREEZES WILL HAVE NO
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...THOUGH THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
TEMPER WARMING A BIT OFF THE CAPROCK IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE/. REGARDLESS...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP EFFICIENTLY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SUCH THAT GUSTY WINDS AREN/T
EXPECTED. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...THE VANGUARDS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA/S TEMPS
FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST TO EAST BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT DIFFERS ON
WHETHER THIS BAND WILL DIP INTO OUR CWA BEFORE 6 PM OR SO. WE/LL
MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS PARMER COUNTY. EARLY
WED EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND SPREAD NEWD WED NIGHT. THUS THE STAGE IS
SET FOR A SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...CAUGHT IN-
BETWEEN TOO STRONGER AREAS OF FORCING FOR PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. EVEN SO...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE PRETTY SOLID ACROSS
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EVEN BETTER FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WE/VE
TRENDED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS...WHILE HOLDING ON TO
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE ARE STILL LOOKING A BIT TRICKY. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH WED NIGHT. STILL...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD WITH FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL LACK AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND THE
RISK OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LOW ATTM. OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LEAST ON THE CAPROCK...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WELL. OFF THE CAPROCK...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WE SHOULD SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS. RIGHT NOW WE ARE GOING 1-2
INCHES ACROSS OUR /SNOW BELT/ OF PARMER...CASTRO AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK ON ROADS. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY AND SLICK THOUGH
MERITS MENTION IN THE HWO. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN FROZEN
PRECIP WOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TAIL OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND DESPITE
NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY FROPA OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  30  52  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         69  31  52  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     69  33  54  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     70  32  58  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  33  57  33  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   70  33  60  32  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    70  32  59  33  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  36  58  34  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          72  36  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  36  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
072
FXUS64 KLUB 191716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1116 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR DOMINATED. VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT SEEPS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WILL VISIT NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY THOUGH IT
WILL COME WITHOUT THE GUSTY WINDS OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION BUT THEY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN TO BRING A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIGHT BREEZES WILL HAVE NO
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...THOUGH THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
TEMPER WARMING A BIT OFF THE CAPROCK IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE/. REGARDLESS...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP EFFICIENTLY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SUCH THAT GUSTY WINDS AREN/T
EXPECTED. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...THE VANGUARDS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA/S TEMPS
FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST TO EAST BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT DIFFERS ON
WHETHER THIS BAND WILL DIP INTO OUR CWA BEFORE 6 PM OR SO. WE/LL
MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS PARMER COUNTY. EARLY
WED EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND SPREAD NEWD WED NIGHT. THUS THE STAGE IS
SET FOR A SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...CAUGHT IN-
BETWEEN TOO STRONGER AREAS OF FORCING FOR PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. EVEN SO...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE PRETTY SOLID ACROSS
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EVEN BETTER FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WE/VE
TRENDED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS...WHILE HOLDING ON TO
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE ARE STILL LOOKING A BIT TRICKY. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH WED NIGHT. STILL...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD WITH FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL LACK AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND THE
RISK OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LOW ATTM. OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LEAST ON THE CAPROCK...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WELL. OFF THE CAPROCK...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WE SHOULD SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS. RIGHT NOW WE ARE GOING 1-2
INCHES ACROSS OUR /SNOW BELT/ OF PARMER...CASTRO AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK ON ROADS. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY AND SLICK THOUGH
MERITS MENTION IN THE HWO. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN FROZEN
PRECIP WOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TAIL OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND DESPITE
NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY FROPA OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  30  52  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         69  31  52  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     69  33  54  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     70  32  58  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  33  57  33  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   70  33  60  32  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    70  32  59  33  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  36  58  34  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          72  36  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  36  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
145
FXUS64 KLUB 191716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1116 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR DOMINATED. VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT SEEPS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WILL VISIT NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY THOUGH IT
WILL COME WITHOUT THE GUSTY WINDS OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION BUT THEY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN TO BRING A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIGHT BREEZES WILL HAVE NO
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...THOUGH THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
TEMPER WARMING A BIT OFF THE CAPROCK IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE/. REGARDLESS...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP EFFICIENTLY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SUCH THAT GUSTY WINDS AREN/T
EXPECTED. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...THE VANGUARDS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA/S TEMPS
FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST TO EAST BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT DIFFERS ON
WHETHER THIS BAND WILL DIP INTO OUR CWA BEFORE 6 PM OR SO. WE/LL
MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS PARMER COUNTY. EARLY
WED EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND SPREAD NEWD WED NIGHT. THUS THE STAGE IS
SET FOR A SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...CAUGHT IN-
BETWEEN TOO STRONGER AREAS OF FORCING FOR PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. EVEN SO...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE PRETTY SOLID ACROSS
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EVEN BETTER FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WE/VE
TRENDED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS...WHILE HOLDING ON TO
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE ARE STILL LOOKING A BIT TRICKY. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH WED NIGHT. STILL...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD WITH FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL LACK AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND THE
RISK OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LOW ATTM. OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LEAST ON THE CAPROCK...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WELL. OFF THE CAPROCK...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WE SHOULD SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS. RIGHT NOW WE ARE GOING 1-2
INCHES ACROSS OUR /SNOW BELT/ OF PARMER...CASTRO AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK ON ROADS. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY AND SLICK THOUGH
MERITS MENTION IN THE HWO. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN FROZEN
PRECIP WOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TAIL OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND DESPITE
NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY FROPA OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  30  52  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         69  31  52  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     69  33  54  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     70  32  58  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  33  57  33  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   70  33  60  32  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    70  32  59  33  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  36  58  34  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          72  36  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  36  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
810
FXUS64 KLUB 191128
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
528 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WILL VISIT NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY THOUGH IT
WILL COME WITHOUT THE GUSTY WINDS OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION BUT THEY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN TO BRING A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIGHT BREEZES WILL HAVE NO
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...THOUGH THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
TEMPER WARMING A BIT OFF THE CAPROCK IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE/. REGARDLESS...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP EFFICIENTLY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SUCH THAT GUSTY WINDS AREN/T
EXPECTED. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...THE VANGUARDS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA/S TEMPS
FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST TO EAST BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT DIFFERS ON
WHETHER THIS BAND WILL DIP INTO OUR CWA BEFORE 6 PM OR SO. WE/LL
MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS PARMER COUNTY. EARLY
WED EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND SPREAD NEWD WED NIGHT. THUS THE STAGE IS
SET FOR A SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...CAUGHT IN-
BETWEEN TOO STRONGER AREAS OF FORCING FOR PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. EVEN SO...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE PRETTY SOLID ACROSS
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EVEN BETTER FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WE/VE
TRENDED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS...WHILE HOLDING ON TO
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE ARE STILL LOOKING A BIT TRICKY. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH WED NIGHT. STILL...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD WITH FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL LACK AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND THE
RISK OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LOW ATTM. OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LEAST ON THE CAPROCK...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WELL. OFF THE CAPROCK...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WE SHOULD SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS. RIGHT NOW WE ARE GOING 1-2
INCHES ACROSS OUR /SNOW BELT/ OF PARMER...CASTRO AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK ON ROADS. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY AND SLICK THOUGH
MERITS MENTION IN THE HWO. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN FROZEN
PRECIP WOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TAIL OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND DESPITE
NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY FROPA OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  30  52  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         69  31  52  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     69  33  54  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     70  32  58  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  33  57  32  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   70  33  60  32  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    70  32  59  33  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  36  58  34  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          72  36  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  36  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
964
FXUS64 KLUB 190935
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WILL VISIT NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY THOUGH IT
WILL COME WITHOUT THE GUSTY WINDS OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION BUT THEY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN TO BRING A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIGHT BREEZES WILL HAVE NO
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...THOUGH THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
TEMPER WARMING A BIT OFF THE CAPROCK IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE/. REGARDLESS...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP EFFICIENTLY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SUCH THAT GUSTY WINDS AREN/T
EXPECTED. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...THE VANGUARDS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA/S TEMPS
FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST TO EAST BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT DIFFERS ON
WHETHER THIS BAND WILL DIP INTO OUR CWA BEFORE 6 PM OR SO. WE/LL
MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS PARMER COUNTY. EARLY
WED EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND SPREAD NEWD WED NIGHT. THUS THE STAGE IS
SET FOR A SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...CAUGHT IN-
BETWEEN TOO STRONGER AREAS OF FORCING FOR PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. EVEN SO...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE PRETTY SOLID ACROSS
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EVEN BETTER FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WE/VE
TRENDED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS...WHILE HOLDING ON TO
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE ARE STILL LOOKING A BIT TRICKY. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH WED NIGHT. STILL...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD WITH FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL LACK AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND THE
RISK OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LOW ATTM. OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LEAST ON THE CAPROCK...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WELL. OFF THE CAPROCK...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WE SHOULD SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS. RIGHT NOW WE ARE GOING 1-2
INCHES ACROSS OUR /SNOW BELT/ OF PARMER...CASTRO AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK ON ROADS. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY AND SLICK THOUGH
MERITS MENTION IN THE HWO. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT.,,,AND FROZEN
PRECIP WOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TAIL OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND DESPITE
NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY FROPA OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  30  52  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         69  31  52  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     69  33  54  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     70  32  58  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  33  57  32  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   70  33  60  32  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    70  32  59  33  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  36  58  34  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          72  36  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  36  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33

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