Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Current Version | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
114
FXUS64 KLUB 211146
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
646 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF KCDS BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AT KPVW AND KLBB LATER THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
AND DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE APPEARS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE CAPROCK BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE 50 DEWPOINT ISODROSOTHERM STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST ONTO THE CAPROCK. GIVEN THE MEAGER GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND VARYING MAGNITUDE OF CAPPING ISSUES...ALONG
WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS CANNOT SEE A SCENARIO
THAT ALLOWS FOR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL FAILING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA LATER TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND
OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL NAM HINTS TOWARD CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE NM INTERACTING WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE LATER IN THE EVENING POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHWEST ZONES
ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. NOT GIVING MUCH CREDENCE TO THAT
PARTICULAR SOLUTION. DUE TO THE VERY POOR HANDLING OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TODAY. INITIALLY HAD NO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD BUT DID BUMP UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH NEIGHBORS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT OF NE NM INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RIGHT NOW THAT
ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT IF IT WERE TO DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH A RETREATING DRYLINE WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BUT EVEN
THAT IS A FAR REACH AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE PROFILES.

ADDING TO THE DIFFICULTY TO INITIATE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE DUE TO MODEST CLOUD COVER WHICH IS LIKELY THE
REASON GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE
OR TWO ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MILD GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A USUAL COOL POCKET IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
INTO THE MID 40S.

LONG TERM...
ONGOING CONVECTION STEMMING FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...COURTESY OF A
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...MAY STILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE/EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS COME DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY FURTHER
ADD TO BUSY SURFACE FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY A CLOSED LOW IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A DRYLINE IN
VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK. NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
ALOFT ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO SPILL IN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RAISING
CONCERNS AS TO AFTERNOON INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE DUE TO
CAPPING. THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT AND PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD HELP PROMOTE STORM GENERATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE IN THE PRESENCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING
OVERHEAD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LENGTHENING
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD PROMOTE ELEVATED STORMS INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL HELP BALANCE A DEVELOPING COLD POOL ORIGINATING FROM A
NOCTURNAL MCS. WILL THUS MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS
SETUP APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE TO DELIVER STORMS.

THURSDAY/S CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON WHAT
MATERIALIZES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN TERMS OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PROPAGATION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LOW EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL SEND THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE ATTEMPTS TO
HOLD THE DRYLINE NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY PEAK HEATING.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FIRE ACROSS THE
LOWER ROLLING TERRAIN...BUT INCREASING WARMTH ALOFT WILL IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE CAP.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY SPELLING A WINDY DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH. DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
SEND THE DRYLINE WELL EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LEAD TO A
TOASTY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEFORE A DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL QUESTIONS
AS TO THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THIS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE A
NOTABLE IMPACT ON MOISTURE RETURN...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT EAST
SEEM WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE BEFORE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS
ENSUE FOR EARLY-MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  43  81  43 /   0  20  20  10
TULIA         75  52  78  47 /   0  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  78  49 /   0  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     78  53  81  49 /  10  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  54  82  52 /   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   78  54  83  50 /   0  20  20   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  83  51 /   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  55  76  57 /  10  20  30  40
SPUR          77  57  79  55 /   0  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     79  60  81  60 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/99/
737
FXUS64 KLUB 211034
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
534 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE APPEARS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE CAPROCK BY LATE
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH THE 50 DEWPOINT ISODROSOTHERM STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH WEST ONTO THE CAPROCK. GIVEN THE MEAGER GULF
MOISTURE RETURN AND VARYING MAGNITUDE OF CAPPING ISSUES...ALONG
WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS CANNOT SEE A SCENARIO
THAT ALLOWS FOR ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HIRES NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL FAILING TO INITIATE
CONVECTION IN OUR AREA LATER TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND
OUT AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. OPERATIONAL NAM HINTS TOWARD CONVECTION
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE NM INTERACTING WITH THE RETREATING
DRYLINE LATER IN THE EVENING POSSIBLY REACHING SOUTHWEST ZONES
ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. NOT GIVING MUCH CREDENCE TO THAT
PARTICULAR SOLUTION. DUE TO THE VERY POOR HANDLING OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MONDAY INTO TODAY. INITIALLY HAD NO CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD BUT DID BUMP UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH NEIGHBORS.

AFTER MIDNIGHT THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OUT OF NE NM INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RIGHT NOW THAT
ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF OUR CWA BUT IF IT WERE TO DROP FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH AND INTERACT WITH A RETREATING DRYLINE WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES BUT EVEN
THAT IS A FAR REACH AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT IN THE PROFILES.

ADDING TO THE DIFFICULTY TO INITIATE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF
SURFACE BASED CAPE DUE TO MODEST CLOUD COVER WHICH IS LIKELY THE
REASON GUIDANCE HAS LOWERED HIGHS FOR TUESDAY BY ROUGHLY A DEGREE
OR TWO ACROSS OUR AREA...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CLOUD
COVER OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS INTO WEDNESDAY MILD GENERALLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH A USUAL COOL POCKET IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
INTO THE MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...
ONGOING CONVECTION STEMMING FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS...COURTESY OF A
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET...MAY STILL BE IN VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE/EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS COME DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONLY FURTHER
ADD TO BUSY SURFACE FIELDS...CHARACTERIZED BY A CLOSED LOW IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM/QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH A DRYLINE IN
VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK. NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
ALOFT ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO SPILL IN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RAISING
CONCERNS AS TO AFTERNOON INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE DUE TO
CAPPING. THE PRESENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT AND PLENTY OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD HELP PROMOTE STORM GENERATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE IN THE PRESENCE OF ANY SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS MOVING
OVERHEAD. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT LENGTHENING
HODOGRAPHS SHOULD PROMOTE ELEVATED STORMS INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL HELP BALANCE A DEVELOPING COLD POOL ORIGINATING FROM A
NOCTURNAL MCS. WILL THUS MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE THIS
SETUP APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE TO DELIVER STORMS.

THURSDAY/S CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON WHAT
MATERIALIZES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY IN TERMS OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PROPAGATION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY POSITIONING.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER
LOW EJECTING OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL SEND THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS LEE TROUGHING IN THE FRONT RANGE ATTEMPTS TO
HOLD THE DRYLINE NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY PEAK HEATING.
STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO FIRE ACROSS THE
LOWER ROLLING TERRAIN...BUT INCREASING WARMTH ALOFT WILL IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD FURTHER STRENGTHEN THE CAP.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY SPELLING A WINDY DAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS APPROACHING 25-30 MPH. DRY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
SEND THE DRYLINE WELL EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND LEAD TO A
TOASTY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN TAKE HOLD SATURDAY BEFORE A DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. STILL QUESTIONS
AS TO THE STRENGTH/SPEED OF THIS UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL HAVE A
NOTABLE IMPACT ON MOISTURE RETURN...BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OUT EAST
SEEM WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE BEFORE RIDGING AND DRY CONDITIONS
ENSUE FOR EARLY-MID WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        75  43  81  43 /   0  20  20  10
TULIA         75  52  78  47 /   0  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  78  49 /   0  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     78  53  81  49 /  10  20  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  54  82  52 /   0  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   78  54  83  50 /   0  20  20   0
BROWNFIELD    79  56  83  51 /   0  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  55  76  57 /  10  20  30  40
SPUR          77  57  79  55 /   0  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     79  60  81  60 /  10  20  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/31
327
FXUS64 KLUB 210508 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW. PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED OR IS NOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME GUSTY WINDS BUT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER
THERE WILL BE ANY STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TAF SITES AND
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT AGAIN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WIND WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WILL GRAUDALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE KCDS TAF SITE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME
STORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WY AND CO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP SUPPORT THE E/SE MOVEMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN LINCOLN
COUNTY NWD THROUGH CLINES CORNERS...LAS VEGAS AND RATON. 12Z WRF-NAM
AS WELL AS VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE TTU-WRF EACH SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING MAINLY EWD BUT WITH A BIT OF A SWD COMPONENT AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER ATTM WITH SFC DEW POINT TEMPS MID
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...BUT WITH
THE UPPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT PRETTY FAR
EWD...EVEN IF THEY DO NOT REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES STILL LOOKS FINE
ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTN. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS/WRN PANHANDLE AND
LIKELY NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INROADS EWD. PROGGED CAPE UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-27 POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS A HAIL
POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CAP WITH THE MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERSION HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 750 MB. WHETHER THAT
DETAIL WORKS OUT OR IS TOO SMALL TO HOLD STORMS AT BAY IS AN
IMPORTANT QUESTION. CERTAINLY THE MODELS ARE VERY LIMITED IN THEIR
QPF AMOUNT PROGS /THEY ALSO VARY WIDELY IN THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL
PLACEMENT OF INITIATION/. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TRY TO GET GOING LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
LACKING CONFIDENCE IN A LOCATION OTHER THAN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE WILL RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING TUESDAY AFTN.

LONG TERM...
TODAYS FORECAST WAS NOT THE EASIEST BUT DEFINITELY WAS NOT THE
HARDEST. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE LITTLE...AT MOST
RETREAT WESTWARD...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUMP IN FROM THE GULF. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD PEAK DURING THIS TIME. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH RIDGING ALOFT...OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
THAT FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONVECT AS CAPE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM
PUSHES A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT INTO THE REGION AND COLLIDES IT WITH
THE DRYLINE. WHILE NO CONVECTION IS SHOWN BY THE NAM IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY
COLLISION WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP ALOFT. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW A FRONT BUT DOES PUSH THE DRYLINE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT SLOWER WITH THE FROPA. WHILE THE
PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IS UNCERTAIN...EACH SOLUTION SHOWN BY
THE MODEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CONVECTION AT LEAST OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST SO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THAT AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL
SETTLE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING
A PUSH EASTWARD LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WINDY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE WEEKEND THUS FAR LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  80  43  80 /  20  20  20  10
TULIA         48  80  48  78 /  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     50  81  49  79 /  20  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     51  83  49  81 /  20  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  85  52  82 /  20  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   51  82  51  82 /  20  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    53  84  52  82 /  20  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     55  81  58  77 /  40  30  30  20
SPUR          56  84  56  79 /  30  20  20  20
ASPERMONT     59  86  60  82 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/01/14
434
FXUS64 KLUB 202329
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MAY HOLD TOGETHER AND IMPACT THE KCDS TAF SITE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS AND
DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. THERE IS ALSO A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME
STORMS NEAR THE TERMINAL SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WY AND CO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP SUPPORT THE E/SE MOVEMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN LINCOLN
COUNTY NWD THROUGH CLINES CORNERS...LAS VEGAS AND RATON. 12Z WRF-NAM
AS WELL AS VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE TTU-WRF EACH SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING MAINLY EWD BUT WITH A BIT OF A SWD COMPONENT AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER ATTM WITH SFC DEW POINT TEMPS MID
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...BUT WITH
THE UPPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT PRETTY FAR
EWD...EVEN IF THEY DO NOT REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES STILL LOOKS FINE
ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTN. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS/WRN PANHANDLE AND
LIKELY NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INROADS EWD. PROGGED CAPE UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-27 POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS A HAIL
POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CAP WITH THE MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERSION HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 750 MB. WHETHER THAT
DETAIL WORKS OUT OR IS TOO SMALL TO HOLD STORMS AT BAY IS AN
IMPORTANT QUESTION. CERTAINLY THE MODELS ARE VERY LIMITED IN THEIR
QPF AMOUNT PROGS /THEY ALSO VARY WIDELY IN THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL
PLACEMENT OF INITIATION/. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TRY TO GET GOING LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
LACKING CONFIDENCE IN A LOCATION OTHER THAN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE WILL RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING TUESDAY AFTN.

LONG TERM...
TODAYS FORECAST WAS NOT THE EASIEST BUT DEFINITELY WAS NOT THE
HARDEST. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE LITTLE...AT MOST
RETREAT WESTWARD...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUMP IN FROM THE GULF. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD PEAK DURING THIS TIME. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH RIDGING ALOFT...OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
THAT FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONVECT AS CAPE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM
PUSHES A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT INTO THE REGION AND COLLIDES IT WITH
THE DRYLINE. WHILE NO CONVECTION IS SHOWN BY THE NAM IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY
COLLISION WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP ALOFT. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW A FRONT BUT DOES PUSH THE DRYLINE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT SLOWER WITH THE FROPA. WHILE THE
PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IS UNCERTAIN...EACH SOLUTION SHOWN BY
THE MODEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CONVECTION AT LEAST OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST SO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THAT AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL
SETTLE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING
A PUSH EASTWARD LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WINDY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE WEEKEND THUS FAR LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  77  43  80 /  20  20  20  20
TULIA         42  78  48  80 /  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     44  78  50  81 /  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     45  80  51  83 /   0  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       47  80  53  85 /  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   45  80  51  82 /   0  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    46  80  53  84 /   0  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     48  79  55  81 /  20  20  40  30
SPUR          47  78  56  84 /  10  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     49  80  59  86 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
132
FXUS64 KLUB 202014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER WY AND CO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL HELP SUPPORT THE E/SE MOVEMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING. THAT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM NRN LINCOLN
COUNTY NWD THROUGH CLINES CORNERS...LAS VEGAS AND RATON. 12Z WRF-NAM
AS WELL AS VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUCH AS THE TTU-WRF EACH SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING MAINLY EWD BUT WITH A BIT OF A SWD COMPONENT AS
WELL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MEAGER ATTM WITH SFC DEW POINT TEMPS MID
20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...BUT WITH
THE UPPER SUPPORT WOULD EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT PRETTY FAR
EWD...EVEN IF THEY DO NOT REMAIN ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES STILL LOOKS FINE
ATTM.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTN. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS/WRN PANHANDLE AND
LIKELY NOT MAKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INROADS EWD. PROGGED CAPE UP TO
1500-2000 J/KG IN AN AXIS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-27 POINT TO
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...AND THUS A HAIL
POTENTIAL. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE CAP WITH THE MODELS SHOWING AN
INVERSION HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 750 MB. WHETHER THAT
DETAIL WORKS OUT OR IS TOO SMALL TO HOLD STORMS AT BAY IS AN
IMPORTANT QUESTION. CERTAINLY THE MODELS ARE VERY LIMITED IN THEIR
QPF AMOUNT PROGS /THEY ALSO VARY WIDELY IN THEIR GEOGRAPHICAL
PLACEMENT OF INITIATION/. CONTINUE TO THINK THAT AT LEAST AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO TRY TO GET GOING LATE IN THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
LACKING CONFIDENCE IN A LOCATION OTHER THAN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE WILL RUN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING TUESDAY AFTN.

.LONG TERM...
TODAYS FORECAST WAS NOT THE EASIEST BUT DEFINITELY WAS NOT THE
HARDEST. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE LITTLE...AT MOST
RETREAT WESTWARD...OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUMP IN FROM THE GULF. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRYLINE SHOULD PEAK DURING THIS TIME. WHILE LIFT
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH RIDGING ALOFT...OUTFLOW FROM STORMS
THAT FIRE TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CONVECT AS CAPE
AVAILABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE. SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE NAM
PUSHES A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT INTO THE REGION AND COLLIDES IT WITH
THE DRYLINE. WHILE NO CONVECTION IS SHOWN BY THE NAM IT WOULD
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. LIFT FROM THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE/BOUNDARY
COLLISION WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP ALOFT. THE
ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW A FRONT BUT DOES PUSH THE DRYLINE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WITH CONVECTION FIRING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT SLOWER WITH THE FROPA. WHILE THE
PATTERN THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IS UNCERTAIN...EACH SOLUTION SHOWN BY
THE MODEL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CONVECTION AT LEAST OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST SO SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THAT AREA. THE DRYLINE WILL
SETTLE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MAKING
A PUSH EASTWARD LEAVING THE POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WINDY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE WEEKEND THUS FAR LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  77  43  80 /  20  20  20  20
TULIA         42  78  48  80 /  20  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     44  78  50  81 /  10  20  20  20
LEVELLAND     45  80  51  83 /   0  20  20  20
LUBBOCK       47  80  53  85 /  10  20  20  20
DENVER CITY   45  80  51  82 /   0  20  20  10
BROWNFIELD    46  80  53  84 /   0  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     48  79  55  81 /  20  20  40  30
SPUR          47  78  56  84 /  10  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     49  80  59  86 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/51
639
FXUS64 KLUB 201716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. VERY SMALL CHANCE
STORMS THAT FORM IN NRN NEW MEXICO AND SRN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
WILL APPROACH KPVW AND KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES
TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS...VEERING WINDS SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
TURBULENT MIXING AND FALLING PRESSURES LOCALLY. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY ON THE WESTWARD EDGE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW...SERVING AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO/NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPT TO STEER INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STARVED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST POTENTIALLY
ENOUGH MID-UPPER MOISTENING THAT A HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE A JOURNEY EAST INTO THE LONE STAR STATE...ESPECIALLY
IF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS COURTESY OF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN HELP
ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE STORMS TO
PACK ENOUGH OF A PUNCH BY THE TIME THEY WOULD ARRIVE TO PRODUCE
SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT COULD SEE SOME COOL OUTFLOW BREEZES GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR TO SUPPORT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
THE LOWER ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
ENTERING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE BAJA
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGES BY FRIDAY.
PINPOINTING LOCATION OF DRYLINE CONVECTION BEGINNING TUESDAY IS NOT
WITHOUT ITS COMPLICATIONS AS THE CAP WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR EACH
DAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. DRYLINE APPEARS TO SET
UP JUST OFF THE CAPROCK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT PLACING BEST CHANCES IN OUR AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO INFLUENCE OF COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND DEEPEST SURFACE MOISTURE BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN DRIER FOR
OUR AREA DUE TO INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND HILL COUNTRY...THUS HAVE SCALED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY EVENING.

DIFFERENCES IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY LEND LITTLE
CLARITY TO SPATIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. GFS POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
OFF THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION WELL OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR WITH CI OCCURRING
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS SHORTWAVES ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE DRYLINE MAINTAINING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA.

DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THAT DRYLINE LOCATION ON
THURSDAY SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ROUGHLY ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR. WITH
DECREASING CHANCES OF CI IN OUR AREA DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ON A BIGGER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION
DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...TAPPING INTO WARMER SUBTROPICAL AIR AND
ADVECTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE CONVECTION TRIGGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS/TRANS-PECOS AREA POTENTIALLY FORMING AN MCS THAT
COULD SCRAPE OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND DRY WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 30KT- 40KTS
SUSTAINED ON THE CAPROCK AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
COUNTIES JUST OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. BY
SATURDAY THE EXITING LOW SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND
RIDGING PATTERN BUILDS IN DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  77  42 /  10  20  10  10
TULIA         68  43  78  48 /   0  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  45  78  50 /   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     69  46  79  51 /   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  47  80  53 /   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   72  45  81  51 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  47  80  53 /   0   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  48  79  55 /   0  20  30  30
SPUR          72  48  78  56 /   0   0  20  30
ASPERMONT     72  50  80  59 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
576
FXUS64 KLUB 201146
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
646 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF ALL
SITES THIS EVENING WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF ANY OF THESE
IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES
TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS...VEERING WINDS SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
TURBULENT MIXING AND FALLING PRESSURES LOCALLY. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY ON THE WESTWARD EDGE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW...SERVING AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO/NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPT TO STEER INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STARVED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST POTENTIALLY
ENOUGH MID-UPPER MOISTENING THAT A HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE A JOURNEY EAST INTO THE LONE STAR STATE...ESPECIALLY
IF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS COURTESY OF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN HELP
ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE STORMS TO
PACK ENOUGH OF A PUNCH BY THE TIME THEY WOULD ARRIVE TO PRODUCE
SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT COULD SEE SOME COOL OUTFLOW BREEZES GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR TO SUPPORT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
THE LOWER ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
ENTERING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE BAJA
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGES BY FRIDAY.
PINPOINTING LOCATION OF DRYLINE CONVECTION BEGINNING TUESDAY IS NOT
WITHOUT ITS COMPLICATIONS AS THE CAP WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR EACH
DAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. DRYLINE APPEARS TO SET
UP JUST OFF THE CAPROCK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT PLACING BEST CHANCES IN OUR AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO INFLUENCE OF COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND DEEPEST SURFACE MOISTURE BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN DRIER FOR
OUR AREA DUE TO INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND HILL COUNTRY...THUS HAVE SCALED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY EVENING.

DIFFERENCES IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY LEND LITTLE
CLARITY TO SPATIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. GFS POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
OFF THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION WELL OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR WITH CI OCCURRING
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS SHORTWAVES ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE DRYLINE MAINTAINING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA.

DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THAT DRYLINE LOCATION ON
THURSDAY SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ROUGHLY ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR. WITH
DECREASING CHANCES OF CI IN OUR AREA DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ON A BIGGER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION
DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...TAPPING INTO WARMER SUBTROPICAL AIR AND
ADVECTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE CONVECTION TRIGGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS/TRANS-PECOS AREA POTENTIALLY FORMING AN MCS THAT
COULD SCRAPE OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND DRY WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 30KT- 40KTS
SUSTAINED ON THE CAPROCK AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
COUNTIES JUST OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. BY
SATURDAY THE EXITING LOW SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND
RIDGING PATTERN BUILDS IN DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  77  42 /  10  20  10  10
TULIA         68  43  78  48 /   0  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  45  78  50 /   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     69  46  79  51 /   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  47  80  53 /   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   72  45  81  51 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  47  80  53 /   0   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  48  79  55 /   0  20  30  30
SPUR          72  48  78  56 /   0   0  20  30
ASPERMONT     72  50  80  59 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
029
FXUS64 KLUB 201043 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES
TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS...VEERING WINDS SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
TURBULENT MIXING AND FALLING PRESSURES LOCALLY. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY ON THE WESTWARD EDGE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW...SERVING AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO/NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPT TO STEER INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STARVED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST POTENTIALLY
ENOUGH MID-UPPER MOISTENING THAT A HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE A JOURNEY EAST INTO THE LONE STAR STATE...ESPECIALLY
IF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS COURTESY OF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN HELP
ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE STORMS TO
PACK ENOUGH OF A PUNCH BY THE TIME THEY WOULD ARRIVE TO PRODUCE
SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT COULD SEE SOME COOL OUTFLOW BREEZES GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR TO SUPPORT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
THE LOWER ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
ENTERING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE BAJA
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGES BY FRIDAY.
PINPOINTING LOCATION OF DRYLINE CONVECTION BEGINNING TUESDAY IS NOT
WITHOUT ITS COMPLICATIONS AS THE CAP WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR EACH
DAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. DRYLINE APPEARS TO SET
UP JUST OFF THE CAPROCK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT PLACING BEST CHANCES IN OUR AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO INFLUENCE OF COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT AND DEEPEST SURFACE MOISTURE BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN DRIER FOR
OUR AREA DUE TO INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
THE ROLLING PLAINS AND HILL COUNTRY...THUS HAVE SCALED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY EVENING.

DIFFERENCES IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY LEND LITTLE
CLARITY TO SPATIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. GFS POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
OFF THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION WELL OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR WITH CI OCCURRING
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS SHORTWAVES ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE DRYLINE MAINTAINING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA.

DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THAT DRYLINE LOCATION ON
THURSDAY SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ROUGHLY ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR. WITH
DECREASING CHANCES OF CI IN OUR AREA DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ON A BIGGER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION
DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH...TAPPING INTO WARMER SUBTROPICAL AIR AND
ADVECTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE CONVECTION TRIGGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS/TRANS-PECOS AREA POTENTIALLY FORMING AN MCS THAT
COULD SCRAPE OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND DRY WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 30KT- 40KTS
SUSTAINED ON THE CAPROCK AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR
COUNTIES JUST OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. BY
SATURDAY THE EXITING LOW SWEEPS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND
RIDGING PATTERN BUILDS IN DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  77  42 /  10  20  10  10
TULIA         68  43  78  48 /   0  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  45  78  50 /   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     69  46  79  51 /   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  47  80  53 /   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   72  45  81  51 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  47  80  53 /   0   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  48  79  55 /   0  20  30  30
SPUR          72  48  78  56 /   0   0  20  30
ASPERMONT     72  50  80  59 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55
272
FXUS64 KLUB 201037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
537 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING SLIDES
TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS...VEERING WINDS SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SPEEDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
TURBULENT MIXING AND FALLING PRESSURES LOCALLY. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY ON THE WESTWARD EDGE OF CYCLONIC
FLOW...SERVING AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO/NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY ATTEMPT TO STEER INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND PERHAPS EARLY
TONIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN STARVED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 30S. NONETHELESS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST POTENTIALLY
ENOUGH MID-UPPER MOISTENING THAT A HIGH-BASED STORM OR TWO MAY BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE A JOURNEY EAST INTO THE LONE STAR STATE...ESPECIALLY
IF INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS COURTESY OF A LOW LEVEL JET CAN HELP
ENHANCE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THESE STORMS TO
PACK ENOUGH OF A PUNCH BY THE TIME THEY WOULD ARRIVE TO PRODUCE
SEVERE CRITERIA...BUT COULD SEE SOME COOL OUTFLOW BREEZES GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR TO SUPPORT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL IN THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
THE LOWER ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
ENTERING AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING OUT OF THE BAJA AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PALMER AND RATON RIDGES BY FRIDAY.
PINPOINTING LOCATION OF DRYLINE CONVECTION BEGINNING TUESDAY IS
NOT WITHOUT ITS COMPLICATIONS AS THE CAP WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR
EACH DAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. DRYLINE APPEARS
TO SET UP JUST OFF THE CAPROCK BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PLACING BEST CHANCES IN OUR AREA ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO
INFLUENCE OF COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND DEEPEST SURFACE MOISTURE BUT
THE TREND HAS BEEN DRIER FOR OUR AREA DUE TO INGREDIENTS FOR
CONVECTION SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND HILL
COUNTRY...THUS HAVE SCALED POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY EVENING.

DIFFERENCES IN OPERATIONAL MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY LEND LITTLE
CLARITY TO SPATIAL EXTENT OF CONVECTION. GFS POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
OFF THE CAPROCK WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH CONVECTION WELL OUT OF THE AREA
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. ECMWF POSITIONS THE DRYLINE
ROUGHLY NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR WITH CI OCCURRING
WITHIN THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA AS SHORTWAVES ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE DRYLINE MAINTAINING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY WELL INTO THE NIGHT. LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF OUR AREA.

DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING THAT DRYLINE LOCATION ON
THURSDAY SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ROUGHLY ALONG THE I27 CORRIDOR. WITH
DECREASING CHANCES OF CI IN OUR AREA DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ON A BIGGER INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR REGION AND
DIGGING DEEPER SOUTH AMD TAPPING INTO WARMER SUBTROPICAL AIR...
ADVECTING IT NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE CONVECTION TRIGGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS/TRANS-PECOS AREA POTENTIALLY FORMING AN MCS THAT
COULD SCRAPE OUR SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO CLOSED LOW OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND DRY
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
30KT- 40KTS SUSTAINED ON THE CAPROCK AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR COUNTIES JUST OFF THE CAPROCK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE. BY SATURDAY THE EXITING LOW SWEEPS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND RIDGING PATTERN BUILDS IN DRYING US
OUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  77  42 /  10  20  10  10
TULIA         68  43  78  48 /   0  20  20  20
PLAINVIEW     68  45  78  50 /   0  10  20  20
LEVELLAND     69  46  79  51 /   0  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  47  80  53 /   0  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   72  45  81  51 /   0   0  20  20
BROWNFIELD    70  47  80  53 /   0   0  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  48  79  55 /   0  20  30  30
SPUR          72  48  78  56 /   0   0  20  30
ASPERMONT     72  50  80  59 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55
616
FXUS64 KLUB 200436
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE.
QUIET EXPECTED OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT WINDS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY
MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SHORTLY
BEFORE DUSK. HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS
INCLUDING KCDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MET WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. UNLIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN JUST SHREDS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENTS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW

LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.

FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST
AREA-WIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  69  42  77 /   0   0  20  20
TULIA         33  67  44  76 /   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     35  68  46  77 /   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     38  69  47  79 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  70  48  79 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   41  71  46  81 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    41  70  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     42  68  48  75 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          41  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     42  69  51  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
697
FXUS64 KLUB 192340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL NOSE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING...AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SHORTLY
BEFORE DUSK. HEALTHY CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS ROLLING PLAINS
INCLUDING KCDS WILL ALSO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MET WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. UNLIKELY TO SEE MORE THAN JUST SHREDS OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING GRADUAL RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
COMPONENTS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW

LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.

FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST
AREA-WIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  69  42  77 /   0   0  20  20
TULIA         33  67  44  76 /   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     35  68  46  77 /   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     38  69  47  79 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  70  48  79 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   41  71  46  81 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    41  70  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     42  68  48  75 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          41  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     42  69  51  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
852
FXUS64 KLUB 192014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WINDS HAVE BEEN ON A SLOW DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A RATHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. A SLUG OF MOISTURE AROUND 5K FT AGL
ADVECTED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BOTH THE
WINDS AND THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TOWARD SUNSET...WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT LATER THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WEST TEXAS. THE NAM DOES INDICATE SOME
DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND ITS TOUGH TO
EVALUATE HOW MUCH THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SHOULD REALIZE EXCELLENT COOLING FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
THINK THE TRADITIONAL COOL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE WILL APPROACH OR SURPASS THE FREEZING MARK ONCE AGAIN.
THESE LOCATIONS WERE BELOW FREEZING A COUPLE OF NIGHTS AGO AND
SINCE WE ARE RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE FOR THIS
AREA...WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS. FAVORED COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO SWING
BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING SPEEDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ON THE CAPROCK. BLENDED MOS/MODEL HIGHS
AROUND 70 AREA WIDE SHOULD DO THE TRICK. JW

.LONG TERM...
STILL SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEEK IN TERMS OF
GENERALLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS REMAINS ONE OF THAT IS SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE. NW FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY WEEK
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY AND FAST SW FLOW LATE WEEK AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM BAJA PAST THE 4-CORNERS TO THE CNTL HIGH
PLAINS.

FIRST SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
SRN PANHANDLE AS MAY SEE CONVECTION FORM ON THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
NRN NM AND SRN COLO WITH POTENTIAL TO MOVE INTO OR THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE. EACH RUN HAS LOOKED LESS LIKELY WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE 12Z RUN IS NO DIFFERENT. WILL HANG ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT
PULL THEM A BIT FURTHERTO THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE CHANCE FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOONS...BUT WEAKLY-FORCED NATURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
THE CAP HOLDING LEAD TO KEEPING 20-30 PCT POPS. CHANCES EXIST
AREAWIDE TUESDAY BUT THEN SHIFT EWD WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
COMES CLOSER. BEST CHANCE DURING THE WEEK MAY BE THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EJECT FROM BAJA...ALTHOUGH CAP STRENGTH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL NEGATIVE ATTM. MAY HAVE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY THAT COULD BOTH FOCUS CONVECTION
AND POOL SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL NUDGE POPS UP A BIT
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY TO SCOURED
EWD FRIDAY...AND CERTAINLY SATURDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WILL HANG ONTO PRECIP MENTION NERN THIRD FRIDAY
AFTN AND KEEP FCST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD NEAR CLIMO...A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL PROGS...CONTINUE
TO LOOK REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        29  69  42  77 /   0   0  20  20
TULIA         33  67  44  76 /   0   0  20  20
PLAINVIEW     35  68  46  77 /   0   0  20  20
LEVELLAND     38  69  47  79 /   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       39  70  48  79 /   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   41  71  46  81 /   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    41  70  48  81 /   0   0   0  20
CHILDRESS     42  68  48  75 /   0   0  20  30
SPUR          41  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  30
ASPERMONT     42  69  51  77 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07
354
FXUS64 KLUB 191731
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AROUND 00Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 20/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

UPDATE...
TTU MESONET INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN TOUCHING 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50...25 TO 35G40 AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK AS OF 1545Z. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CURRENTLY PEAKING WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THINK WINDS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
ADVISORY NOT NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
JW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13
478
FXUS64 KLUB 191548
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1048 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
TTU MESONET INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS HAVE REALLY RAMPED UP
THIS MORNING BEHIND EARLIER PASSAGE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE HAVE BEEN TOUCHING 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 50...25 TO 35G40 AT MANY OTHER LOCATIONS ON THE
CAPROCK AS OF 1545Z. HI RES SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST WINDS
SHOULD BE CURRENTLY PEAKING WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THINK WINDS
WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WIND
ADVISORY NOT NEEDED. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
JW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING TO ON THE ORDER OF 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL AS SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99
772
FXUS64 KLUB 191138
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT SOUTH OF ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS...INCREASING TO ON THE ORDER OF 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL AS SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS TRY TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  20
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
490
FXUS64 KLUB 191007
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
507 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. MAY VERY WELL SEE IT PLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS BY SUNRISE WITH SIGNIFICANT PUSH FROM AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER DISTURBANCE SPINNING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. IN
ADDITION...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND DRYLINE CONTINUE TO SIT
NEAR CHILDRESS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF FOG IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS
WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WRAP AROUND 50F DEWPOINT
AIR...BUT WILL SEE THIS MIX OUT AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT DIVES
SOUTH.

GREATEST PRESSURE RISES THIS MORNING WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS HERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
25 MPH RANGE...SUPPORTED BY AFOREMENTIONED PRESSURE RISES AND A LOW
LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AROUND H85 IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE BEING TAPPED
INTO AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. HIGHER SPEEDS MAY OCCUR AROUND
MID-LATE MORNING IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE BY THAT TIME TO
SOURCE 30+ KNOTS OF H85 WINDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WILL STILL SEE SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-25 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY...CORRELATING WELL WITH A 40 METER 200 NAUTICAL MILE
GRADIENT IN H70 HEIGHT FIELDS. NORTHWEST FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT
LOCALLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL KEEP ANY THREAT OF STORMS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS/FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TODAY. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE OFFING BEHIND THE FRONT TO FINISH OFF
THE WEEKEND WITH 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO
DROPOFF. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ATTEMPT TO STREAM IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE ONLY DETRIMENT TO A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. NONETHELESS...A CHILLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKS TO BE IN STORE AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE/NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON THE REMAINDER OF THE CAPROCK.
LOCALES EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOW-MID
40S.

.LONG TERM...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SCALE BACK PRECIP CHANCES ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING CLOSED LOW PUSHING FARTHER EAST
AND PULLED FARTHER NORTH AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR
JET...THE HASTENED EXITING OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST ALLOWS FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE
GULF ON TUESDAY. DRYLINE SET UP FOR TUESDAY HAS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST...APPROX TO THE I27 CORRIDOR. GFS STRUGGLES
TO CONVECT IN OUR AREA LIKELY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH OF A CAP BEING
PRESENT. ECMWF IS FAIRLY BULLISH RELATIVE TO THE GFS. WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE CONTINUED 20-30 PERCENT POPS BEING A DECENT MIDDLE
GROUND.

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...NOT UNEXPECTEDLY...STRUGGLE
WITH DRYLINE POSITIONING. GFS PUSHES THE DRYLINE ON WEDNESDAY WELL
TO THE EAST WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT OF
AREA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TEXAS AND FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR JUST EAST OF ABILENE...WHILE THE ECMWF
POSITIONS THE DRYLINE FARTHER WEST UNDER A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIEDRIDGE
RESULTING IN DRYLINE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.

DETAILS FOR THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ARE
STILL FUZZY AT THIS POINT BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING DECENT GULF MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OUT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW THAT WILL ALSO COLLECT AMPLE PACIFIC
MOISTURE AS IT DEEPENS ALONG THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. BOTH INDICATE A SHARP
DRYLINE ROUGHLY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER WITH STRONG FORCING FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
PUSHING SLIGHTLY EAST ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
HOVER AROUND SEASONAL NORMS...SLIGHTLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE LONG TERM BEFORE SHIFTING TO SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  29  67  41 /   0   0   0  30
TULIA         63  36  67  43 /   0   0   0  20
PLAINVIEW     65  38  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
LEVELLAND     70  39  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  39  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   72  40  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    71  41  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  41  70  47 /   0   0   0  20
SPUR          71  42  69  48 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     74  45  71  50 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55
153
FXUS64 KLUB 190454
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1154 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
IN GENERAL...UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KLBB AND KPVW
WILL TRANSITION TO NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE IN THE NIGHT. TRENDS INDICATE PERHAPS A BIT EARLIER PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT FOR THE AREA BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL AWAIT MIXING
AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AT KCDS...MORE COMPLEX WITH PLAY OF OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH RETREATING DRYLINE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. BELIEVE CURRENT LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
BACK TO THE EAST OR EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BEFORE FRONT ARRIVES
LATER IN THE NIGHT. STILL A THREAT FOR FOG AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS AND THIS COULD GO DOWN IN A HURRY SHOULD THE EASTERLY
COMPONENT ACTUALLY DEVELOP AT KCDS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO DOMINATING AT KCDS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
090
FXUS64 KLUB 190133
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
833 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH THE APPROACHING ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBE...WE GAVE
PLENTY OF TIME AND OPPORTUNITY FOR MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. AND THE DRYLINE
WILL RETREAT INTO THE AREA AFTER 900 PM. BUT NOT IN TIME TO
INTERACT WITH THE PASSING ENERGY AND TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ANY
LINGERING DAY-TIME WARMTH. SO...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS
SUFFICIENTLY LESSENED THIS EVENING THAT WE HAVE ENDED THE WATCH
FOR CHILDRESS...COTTLE...AND KING COUNTIES. STILL WOULD NOT BE A
SHOCK TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP NEAR THE OUTFLOW AND DRYLINE
INTERSECTION...OR SOUTHWARD ALONG THE DRY-LINE...BUT SEEMS LIKE A
LONG-SHOT RIGHT NOW. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY SHOULD RECOVER ADEQUATELY THIS AREA.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99
402
FXUS64 KLUB 190003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
703 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM ISSUES CENTERED AT KCDS. DRYLINE SLOWLY RETREATING WEST
BACK TOWARDS KCDS WILL ARRIVE EARLY EVENING...PERHAPS CLOSE TO
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER VORTICITY LOBE SLIDING OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ABOUT 02Z-04Z THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS
REMAIN MIXED IF THIS WILL LEAD TO ANY DEEPLY ROOTED CONVECTION OR
MERELY PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY ALOFT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WE WILL FAVOR THE LATER FOR NOW AND FOLLOW RADAR TRENDS FOR A
POSSIBLE UPDATE. AFTER PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...EXPECT KCDS TO HAVE
ANOTHER BONA-FIDE THREAT FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND
POSSIBLY A LOW CEILING. SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING SUCH
NEARBY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST OR SOUTH AS KCDS. WE HAVE INTRODUCED
MINOR INDICATIONS OF FOG AND A LOW STRATUS LAYER FOR NOW MAINLY
AFTER 07Z...AND READDRESS FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. BOTH KLBB AND
KPVW SHOULD SEE MAINLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAPERING OFF A LITTLE
AFTER SUNSET. SMALL CHANCE THE SURFACE DRYLINE COULD RETREAT AS
FAR WEST AS EITHER SITE LATER IN THE NIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT
INDICATE IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL SLICE SOUTHWARD
AROUND 12Z SUNDAY. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST PERHAPS A BRIEF IFR OR
MVFR CEILING PASSING OVER KCDS WITH DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW OTHERWISE.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AFTER THE FRONT SUNDAY SUPPORTS WIND SPEEDS IN
THE VICINITY OF 20 KNOTS BY MID MORNING...WITH STRONGEST GUSTS
PROBABLY IMPACTING KCDS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  62  35  69 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         42  64  37  68 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     43  65  40  68 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  68  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       46  70  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   46  71  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     49  71  42  70 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          47  71  43  70 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     50  75  46  72 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
860
FXUS64 KLUB 181959
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
259 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
PROGGED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
ADVECTS EAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. A SERIES OF FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS TIME. THE FIRST OF WHICH WAS IN THE PROCESS OF EJECTING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO QUITE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE THIS WAVE WAS ONLY GENERATING SOME HIGH BASED CU
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY HELP FORCE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRYLINE WHICH HAS MIXED TO THE FAR
EASTERN REACHES OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 19Z. LOOKING LESS AND LESS
LIKELY THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL FIRE IN FORECAST AREA...BUT WINDS
HAVE BEEN BACKING JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA WITH APPROACH OF SHORT
WAVE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG ON JUST
ENOUGH FOR SEVERE CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO.

AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH A STOUT NORTH WIND
IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY COMPARED WITH THIS AFTERNOON. METMOS SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG FOR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT BUT IT
IS AN OUTLIER AND THINK ANY POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY IMPENDING
SURFACE BOUNDARY BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS RETAIN
GOOD CONTINUITY. MONDAY STARTS THE WEEK FAIRLY COOL ALTHOUGH WITH
SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN. STILL SOME SIGNALS SHOWING HIGH
TERRAIN STORMS FIRING NRN NM/SRN COLO MOVING SEWD WITH NWLY UPPER
FLOW. STILL SOME CONCERN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE CAN BUILD AND HOW FAR
ANY MCS CAN TRAVEL BEFORE DISSIPATION GIVEN MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT QPF NWD...BUT MAINTAIN SOME
CHANCE INTO THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. WILL MAKE SUBTLE SHIFT
NWD WITH POP FCST FROM PREVIOUS FCST.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR DRYLINE STORMS EACH AFTN FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND UNKNOWNS SUCH AS
DRYLINE POSITIONING AND POTENTIAL FOR OTHER OUTFLOW OR WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 20-30 PCT POPS REMAIN BEST BET. TEMPS TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH HAVE FAVORED SLIGHTLY LESS WARM MODEL
BLEND NUMBERS OVER THE WARMER MEX OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  37  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         73  42  64  37 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     73  43  65  40 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  41 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  71  42 /  20  20   0   0
SPUR          79  47  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  75  46 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/07
060
FXUS64 KLUB 181733
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 19/18Z. REMOTE CHANCE OF TSRA
NEAR KCDS 20Z-24Z. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 19/12Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

13/99/13
385
FXUS64 KLUB 181120
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITIES HAVE CRATERED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE INTERSTATE 27/US 87 CORRIDOR. SHOULD SEE THIS MIX OUT AS
HEATING COMMENCES WITH SUNRISE THIS MORNING PROMPTING AN EASTWARD
MIXING DRYLINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BELOW AIRFIELD MINIMUMS AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. KPVW AND KLBB WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTWARD
EDGE OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITIES THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK...BUT KCDS COULD SEE A MUCH LONGER STINT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN ENSUE FOR ALL SITES BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TAKE PLACE. SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR/BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE VEERING
NORTHWEST AND INCREASING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  64  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  66  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  67  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       77  46  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  72  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  76  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ023>026-
029>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

31
319
FXUS64 KLUB 180943
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
443 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LOW CHURNING INTO EASTERN COLORADO THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST TODAY TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SURFACE LOW VEERS WINDS WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY THUS PROMOTING DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. AREAS OF FOG/LOW STRATUS JUST EAST
OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVECT IN EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE WHICH CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE CAPROCK. SHOULD SEE FOG MIX
OUT AND DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WITH EASTWARD MIXING OF THE DRYLINE.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE DRYLINE AS A LOBE OF VORTICITY BREAKS
OFF THE MAIN UPPER LOW AND SWINGS THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH PRESSURE FALLS LOCALLY AND
SLOW EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...COMBINED WITH
CONVECTION FARTHER EAST NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE
DRYLINE HANG UP IN VICINITY OF THE FAR SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. HAVE THEREFORE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A CHILDRESS TO
JAYTON LINE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT EXPECTED AND STOUT
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE 70S WITH A FEW LOW 80S...LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND DOWNBURST WINDS OF 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CLOSER TO A MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C
IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO
THE ADJACENT SOUTH PLAINS...ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING MAY OCCUR FOR
SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS. CANNOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION FROM ONE
OF THESE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT COULD SEE SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS UNDERNEATH VIRGA. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BREEZY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOW-MID TEENS...BUT ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PRECLUDE CONCERNS.

AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS TONIGHT...AN ENSUING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH AS THEY VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING MAINLY INTO THE 40S COME SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...
DRY COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NE NM/SE CO WILL WORK ITS WAY S AND SE BUT GIVEN SCANT
MOISTURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DONT ANTICIPATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WORKING THEIR WAY THIS FAR SOUTH. MORE HIGH TERRAIN
CONVECTION ON MONDAY STANDS A BETTER CHANCE AT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE GIVEN MODEST UPSLOPE RETURN FLOW
BUILDING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 40S
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

BY MIDWEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF A SLOWLY DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WEAKLY FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS. CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES TRANSLATING NE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATES FOR 20-30 PCT
STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE RELATIVELY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...MAYBE A FEW
TICKS WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  38  65  38 /  10  10   0  10
TULIA         73  43  67  39 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     73  44  68  41 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     75  44  70  42 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       76  46  71  42 /   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   74  46  71  44 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    76  46  72  44 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     79  49  73  44 /  10  10   0   0
SPUR          79  48  73  44 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     81  50  77  47 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55
724
FXUS64 KLUB 180447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE INSERTING A MENTION OF
FOG AND INCREASING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE
HAS MOVED FARTHER WEST THAN MODELS FORECAST BRINGING IN MOIST AIR
ON THE CAPROCK. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DEVELOPING FOG IN THE
MOIST AIR THROUGH MID MORNING. FURTHERMORE...T/TD SPREADS OFF THE
CAPROCK WERE ALREADY RUNNING BETWEEN 1-2 DEGREES. IT IS STILL
NEBULOUS ON WHETHER AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL SEE FOG OR NOT. THE
DRYLINE RECENTLY ENCOUNTERED A WESTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY WHICH HAS
GREATLY SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRYLINE. AT SOME POINT...THE
DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BEGIN MOVING EAST. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY RAISED ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPROCK WHERE THIS
MOISTURE HAS INVADED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY BRING FOG INTO THE
KCDS TERMINAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON
WHETHER FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO KLBB OR KPVW. A DRYLINE BOUNDARY IS
CLOSE TO BOTH TERMINALS WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STAY IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL.
IF MOISTURE DOES HANG ON...THEN FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KLBB AND KPVW. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         48  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     49  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     45  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       50  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     56  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          54  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     57  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
678
FXUS64 KLUB 172326
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
626 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WAS BREAKING UP NEAR KCDS EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE AT VLIFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL RETURN
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR STILL IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AT ALL TAF
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BECOME BREEZY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  70  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         43  73  44  67 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     44  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  75  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       45  76  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   44  74  47  71 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  79  51  73 /  20  10  10   0
SPUR          53  79  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     56  81  52  77 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
328
FXUS64 KLUB 172021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
DRYLINE AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM JUST WEST OF SILVERTON SOUTH TO WHITE
RIVER LAKE AND NEAR LAKE ALAN HENRY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FORCED
WEST ALL DAY BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FARTHER EAST AND RECENT RUNS OF
THE RUC HAVE THE DRYLINE ARRIVING ALONG INTERSTATE 27 BY THIS
EVENING...PERHAPS MUCH SOONER. INSTABILITY-WISE...A NARROW AXIS OF
SBCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG MAY FULFILL SOME TSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT VISUAL TRENDS OF TOWERING AND
MODERATE CU SUGGEST DEEPER ASCENT IS LACKING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THIS AREA IS BATTLING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO AN AXIS OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 60-100 MILES FARTHER EAST. BECAUSE OF
THIS AND LIMITED NWP SUPPORT...POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK TO SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK.

AS THE FOUR CORNERS LOW BEGINS LIFTING NORTHEAST TONIGHT...LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND HELP TO NUDGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BEFORE DAYBREAK
SAT. MODELS AGREE THE DRYLINE WILL MIX OUT OF OUR EASTERN ZONES BY
MIDDAY AHEAD OF BREEZY SW WINDS...BUT ANY DISRUPTION TO THIS SUCH AS
WE SAW TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD SUPPORT A MORE WESTERLY
DRYLINE LOCATION AND NECESSITATE MODIFICATIONS TO OUR DRY FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY. WHEREVER THE DRYLINE ENDS UP...DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD
EASILY UNFOLD BY SAT AFTN UNDER WEAK INHIBITION...STRONGER CYCLONIC
FLOW AND A FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET OF -20C AT 500MB.

.LONG TERM...
COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FCST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ENOUGH COLD ADVECTION TO RESULT IN HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S WHILE ALSO SCOURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT OF THE FCST
AREA. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ON THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF NRN NM/SRN COLO AND BE DRIVEN TO THE SE ON NWLY UPPER
FLOW...BUT WITH DRY LOW LEVELS WOULD EXPECT IT TO HAVE A HARD
TIME GETTING THIS FAR TO THE SE. SITUATION CHANGES SOME MONDAY
WHEN SOUTH AND SE WINDS BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE HIGH TERRAIN CONVECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE AND INTO NRN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA.

THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL THEN BE ONE WITH POSSIBILITY OF
WEAKLY-FORCED DIURNAL DRYLINE STORMS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING WITH TIME...CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO WEAK
UPPER RIDGING. 20-30 PCT STORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY LOOK
FINE WITH THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        72  40  70  40 /  10   0   0  10
TULIA         76  43  73  44 /  20   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     77  44  73  45 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     75  43  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       78  45  76  47 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    76  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     68  55  79  51 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          78  53  79  50 /  40  20   0   0
ASPERMONT     74  56  81  52 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07
263
FXUS64 KLUB 171720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AT LBB AND PVW WITH LOW CIGS PERSISTING AT CDS FOR
MUCH /IF NOT ALL/ OF THIS TAF CYCLE. IFR CIGS AT CDS ARE BEGINNING
TO LIFT...BUT COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY WINDS LOOK TO KEEP MVFR
LAYERS INTACT THRU 18Z SAT AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. THERE REMAINS A
WINDOW FOR TSRA NEAR CDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THE
CHANCE THAT THESE IMPACT THE SITE IS TOO LOW ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/07/93
046
FXUS64 KLUB 171142
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
TSRA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD COME TO AN END AT KCDS THIS
MORNING...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING AND EXACT SPATIAL EXTENT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO WARRANT KEEPING MENTION SILENT FOR NOW. MVFR
CEILINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD LIFT BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND NOON
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE. THREAT OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS AND EAST OF A
DRYLINE...BUT THIS PROBABILITY/TIMING AGAIN REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

KLBB AND KPVW SHOULD HOLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WEST OF THE
DRYLINE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING BREEZY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIAN FRONT STALLS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE
MONDAY AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK
QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE
OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR
PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31
579
FXUS64 KLUB 170821
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LINE OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE UPPER FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
CLOSED LOW ROTATING ABOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THURSDAY/S EDITION OF A RETREATING DRYLINE. STEERING FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIP THIS ACTIVITY OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
COMBINATION OF CAPE NEAR 1 KJ/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS
MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A BALANCE FOR UPDRAFTS TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES.
THIS LINE SHOULD PUSH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT...ATTENDANT
TO SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE PERMIAN
BASIN. WILL SEE MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE CAPROCK BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS STEADILY FALLING INTO THE TEENS/20S THIS
MORNING...THUS BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT.

AS ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE EASTWARD DRIFTING UPPER
LOW...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INITIATE IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
ALONG THE FARTHER EASTWARD DISPLACED DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 2-3
KJ/KG. STORMS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
WORK WITH...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KNOTS...THEREFORE ALLOWING FOR
BETTER ORGANIZATION AND STORM LONGEVITY. IN ADDITION...DYNAMICS MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE COUPLING OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KNOT POLAR JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
80-90 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS. THERE MAY ALSO BE A NARROW WINDOW FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WHERE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT EAST AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AS A WEAK DIURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WILL QUICKLY
RESULT IN ELEVATED INFLOW REGIONS AND DECREASE THIS PROBABILITY.

WILL SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES LOWER TODAY AS A RESULT OF
COOLING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION COURTESY OF THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC FRONT...BUT READINGS WILL STILL TOP OUT RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 70S. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE LOW-MID TEENS WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER...BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST
LARGER FUELS IN TANDEM WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL NEGATE THE
NEED FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS IN THE FORM OF A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO BE FORCED FARTHER EAST OVERNIGHT BY THE PARENT
UPPER LOW EJECTING TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS...ALLOWING
DRIER AIR TO BEGIN SPILLING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. STORM CHANCES
WILL THUS END OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 40S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW-MID 50S IN THE ROLLING TERRAIN
EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

.LONG TERM...
DRIER SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SLOWLY SPREADS ACROSS WEST TEXAS OVER
THE WEEKEND AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
EXITING CLOSED LOW TO THE NORTHEAST. SATURDAY DRYLINE ACTIVITY WILL
BE WELL TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLE. MODEST CANADIEN FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS/SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BEST BUT STILL LOW END PRECIP CHANCES ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT APPEAR TO BE IN THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE MONDAY AS
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN THE
SOUTHWEST EJECTS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK RIDGING PATTERN ALOFT MIDWEEK QUICKLY TRANSLATES EAST
AS LOW CONTINUES TO CUT-OFF AND ORGANIZE OVER FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK. COULD PROVIDE SIMILAR PATTERN AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE
WEEK THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  40  70  41 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         74  43  73  45 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  44  74  46 /  20  10  10   0
LEVELLAND     73  43  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       76  45  77  47 /  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  43  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    75  45  76  48 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  54  80  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  52  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     80  55  83  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/55
765
FXUS64 KLUB 170512
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1212 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS WEAKENING WITH IT CURRENTLY AFFECTING
BOTH KLBB AND KPVW ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR KCDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NEAR KCDS BRINGING IN POSSIBLE
LOWERED CIGS LATER THIS MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EAST OF THIS FEATURE. THIS MAY
BRING AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TO KCDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        71  41  70  42 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         75  44  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     74  45  73  46 /  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     74  44  74  46 /  10   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       76  46  75  47 /  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   73  44  74  47 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  46  76  48 /  10   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     78  55  78  52 /  50  20  10  10
SPUR          77  53  79  51 /  40  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     79  56  82  53 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
377
FXUS64 KLUB 162336
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING WILL AFFECT KCDS IN THE IMMEDIATE
TERM. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WAS OCCURRING WELL WEST
OF THE REGION IN NEW MEXICO. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REACH THE KLBB/KPVW TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF STORMS DO MAKE IT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
TERMINALS...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE ALSO EXISTS A CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/VISBYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BUT OCCURRENCE OF THIS IS
UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT AND MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS DO MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  71  41  70 /  40  10   0  10
TULIA         50  75  44  73 /  60  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     51  74  45  73 /  60  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     48  74  44  74 /  50  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       51  76  46  75 /  60  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   47  73  44  74 /  30  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  74  46  76 /  40  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     58  78  55  78 /  60  50  20  10
SPUR          53  77  53  79 /  60  40  10  10
ASPERMONT     58  79  56  82 /  60  50  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
516
FXUS64 KLUB 161933
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS DIFLUENT
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND DRY-
LINE. EXPECTED ENERGY LEVELS IN THE 1000-2500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR MOSTLY GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE
INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S.

INITIAL TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH WHILE OUR AREA REMAINS QUIET
AT THE MOMENT...THOUGH CUMULUS FIELD PERCOLATING ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES AND DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD STREET FEATURES POINT TO POTENTIAL
FOR HORIZONTAL ROLLS. SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS STILL INDICATE
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT NEAR AND EAST OF THE DRY-LINE JUST EAST
OF THE I-27 AND US 87 CORRIDOR AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST FAIRLY
QUICKLY...WHILE APPROACHING DYNAMIC ENERGY WILL PUT INCREASING
UPWARDS PRESSURE TO CONVECT CLOSER TO WESTERN BORDER DURING THE
EVENING. SOLUTIONS ALSO SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF SOME KIND OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SPREADING OVER THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT...THOUGH
UNCLEAR IF EARLY OR LATE...OR SEMI-DISCREET MULTI-CELL AND
SUPERCELLS VS. MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE. A LOT REMAINS UNCERTAIN EVEN
AT THIS LATE JUNCTURE. BUT GIVEN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT FAVORING AT
LEAST MODERATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDICES COMBINED WITH A KNOWN
SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING PATTERN...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE A HIGH
CHANCE OR LIKELY CATEGORY OF STORMS OVERNIGHT.

BY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...OUR CURRENT BEST GUESS IS THAT
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS WILL BE SPREADING THROUGH OR AWAY FROM
EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY. UPPER LOW SHOULD WOBBLE A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTHEAST WHICH SHOULD FAVOR DRIER LOW AND MID LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW. BETTER EXPECTATION THAT SURFACE DRY-LINE WILL BE SOMEWHERE
FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. WE HAVE EDGED
THUNDER CHANCES SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE AND STILL PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDER
THREAT THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THIS EXTENDED FCST DUE TO IMPENDING SEVERE
CONVECTION. OVERALL PATTERN FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING DEGREES OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. INITIAL
STACKED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL CRAWL EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND SPREAD STRONGER SW FLOW AND DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION BEFORE A MODEST CANADIAN FRONT ARRIVES SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN.
MEAN AFTERNOON DRYLINE POSITION SHOULD RESIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...SO POPS REMAIN NEXT TO NIL. BEHIND THE LOW...CYCLONIC NW
FLOW BY MON-TUE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA MAY FOSTER
THE NEXT LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL A MORE BONA FIDE PRECIP
PATTERN UNFOLDS BY MID-TO-LATE WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS LOOK TO STAY WITHIN 5 OR SO DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/93
992
FXUS64 KLUB 161719
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1219 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
TRICKY TIMING AROUND THUNDER CHANCES FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. LOOKS
LIKE MVFR CEILING AT KCDS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL AMEND IF LIFTS QUICKER...THEN HAVE ADDED A TEMPO
THUNDER GROUP LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLE WITH GOOD
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY. KPVW AND KLBB INITIALLY ON
THE DRY SIDE OF THE DRYLINE BUT EXPECT RETREATING DRYLINE THIS
EVENING WITH DYNAMIC LIFT AND MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX
STEERING BY JUST TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROB30
THUNDER GROUP LATER TONIGHT TO MEET WITH THIS POSSIBLE EVENT. WE
ARE NOT EXPLICITLY MENTIONING SEVERE THUNDER IN THE TAFS BUT WILL
AMEND IF A SUPERCELL APPROACHES ANY TAF SITE. ALSO...AS SHORT
RANGE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO ADJUST WE WILL LIKEWISE ADD OR REMOVE
THUNDER THREATS AS CONFIDENCE ALLOWS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...
FLUID SITUATION THIS MORNING WITH INGREDIENTS STILL PIECING
TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED WITH NEAR 60 SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE WIND COMPONENTS HAVE
VEERED SLIGHTLY ALREADY OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INDICATING
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS REGION WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO
FOLLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT COULD PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUT WEST...TRAILING DYNAMIC
ENERGY WAS LEADING TO LIGHT MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS ALONG THE STATE
LINE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED IN THIS AREA AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ALSO...TO
THE SOUTH WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A POCKET OF DYNAMIC ENERGY ALL
MORNING THAT HAS NOT PROVEN EFFECTIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INSISTENT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. FINALLY...BACK WEST...A NOTABLE SHORT-WAVE LOBE OF ENERGY
WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT ITSELF
WAS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS.

SO...LOTS ON THE TABLE AND PLENTY TO CONSIDER.

TO START...WE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE EXISTING CONVERGENCE AND
ANTICIPATE INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT
MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW LOW-END SUPERCELLS. THE LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE WEST MIGHT JUST REMAIN AND ACTUALLY MATURE WITH SURFACE
HEATING...OR COULD CLEAR OUT AS THE DYMAMICS SHEAR NORTH. HARD TO
SAY. WE EXPECT SEVERE WATCHES WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS PANHANDLE
MAYBE INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
EVEN INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AT LEAST. AND LATER TONIGHT WE THINK
A SECOND ROUND OF OVERTURNING CONVECTION IS A REAL POSSIBILITY
WITH ADEQUATE CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE AND
SHEARS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. IN BETWEEN...THIS EVENING...IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BACKING AND MOISTURE INCREASING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PACKING ALONG A RETREATING DRY-LINE BETWEEN 23Z-03Z
OR SO THIS AREA ALONG WITH NOTABLE 0-3KM HELICITIES AND RELATIVELY
LOW LCLS.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WE HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WE
PULLED HIGHER CHANCES WEST TO THE STATE LINE FOR A POSSIBLE
NOCTURNAL EVENT. CONTINUED MENTION OF SEVERE THREAT OF COURSE. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES UNLESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. KCDS HAS BEST CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP INTO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING KCDS. KPVW AND KLBB HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.

LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        43  68  41  70 /  50  10  10  10
TULIA         50  72  44  73 /  60  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     52  72  45  73 /  60  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     50  72  44  74 /  50  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       53  74  46  75 /  50  20  20  10
DENVER CITY   49  72  44  74 /  40  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    52  74  46  76 /  50  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     58  78  55  78 /  60  50  30  20
SPUR          56  76  53  79 /  60  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     60  77  56  82 /  60  50  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
949
FXUS64 KLUB 161555
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1055 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
FLUID SITUATION THIS MORNING WITH INGREDIENTS STILL PIECING
TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP WELL INTO THE
NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED WITH NEAR 60 SURFACE
DEWPOINTS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. SURFACE WIND COMPONENTS HAVE
VEERED SLIGHTLY ALREADY OVER SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INDICATING
MODEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE. THIS REGION WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO
FOLLOW INTO THE AFTERNOON AS IT COULD PROVE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. OUT WEST...TRAILING DYNAMIC
ENERGY WAS LEADING TO LIGHT MOSTLY ALOFT SHOWERS ALONG THE STATE
LINE. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED IN THIS AREA AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. ALSO...TO
THE SOUTH WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A POCKET OF DYNAMIC ENERGY ALL
MORNING THAT HAS NOT PROVEN EFFECTIVE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
THOUGH SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE INSISTENT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
QUICKLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. FINALLY...BACK WEST...A NOTABLE SHORT-WAVE LOBE OF ENERGY
WAS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT ITSELF
WAS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS.

SO...LOTS ON THE TABLE AND PLENTY TO CONSIDER.

TO START...WE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE EXISTING CONVERGENCE AND
ANTICIPATE INCREASING CONVECTION SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT
MAY LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW LOW-END SUPERCELLS. THE LIGHT SHOWERS
TO THE WEST MIGHT JUST REMAIN AND ACTUALLY MATURE WITH SURFACE
HEATING...OR COULD CLEAR OUT AS THE DYMAMICS SHEAR NORTH. HARD TO
SAY. WE EXPECT SEVERE WATCHES WILL BE CONSIDERED ACROSS PANHANDLE
MAYBE INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
EVEN INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES AT LEAST. AND LATER TONIGHT WE THINK
A SECOND ROUND OF OVERTURNING CONVECTION IS A REAL POSSIBILITY
WITH ADEQUATE CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM RANGE AND
SHEARS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. IN BETWEEN...THIS EVENING...IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ZONES THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE BACKING AND MOISTURE INCREASING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT PACKING ALONG A RETREATING DRY-LINE BETWEEN 23Z-03Z
OR SO THIS AREA ALONG WITH NOTABLE 0-3KM HELICITIES AND RELATIVELY
LOW LCLS.

BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WE HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT...WE
PULLED HIGHER CHANCES WEST TO THE STATE LINE FOR A POSSIBLE
NOCTURNAL EVENT. CONTINUED MENTION OF SEVERE THREAT OF COURSE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES UNLESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. KCDS HAS BEST CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP INTO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING KCDS. KPVW AND KLBB HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER 21Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.

LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  43  68  41 /  30  50  10  10
TULIA         76  50  72  44 /  70  60  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  72  45 /  60  60  30  10
LEVELLAND     76  50  72  44 /  30  50  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  53  74  46 /  50  50  20  20
DENVER CITY   76  49  72  44 /  20  40  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  52  74  46 /  30  50  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  78  55 /  70  60  50  30
SPUR          78  56  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
ASPERMONT     80  60  77  56 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/99
890
FXUS64 KLUB 161057
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
557 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES UNLESS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINALS. KCDS HAS BEST CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM PASSING OVERHEAD AS EARLY AS 22Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP INTO MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF
THE STRONGEST STORMS AFFECTING KCDS. KPVW AND KLBB HAVE POTENTIAL
FOR SIMILAR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL BEING PRIMARY THREAT AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.

LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  43  68  41 /  30  30  10  10
TULIA         76  50  72  44 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  72  45 /  50  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     76  50  72  44 /  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  53  74  46 /  50  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   76  49  72  44 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  52  74  46 /  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  78  55 /  70  60  50  30
SPUR          78  56  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
ASPERMONT     80  60  77  56 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55
648
FXUS64 KLUB 160943
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
443 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...
VORT MAX EMBEDDED IN SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST
TEXAS RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD
SUPPORT ACTIVITY THROUGH PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT THEM TO TAPER OFF BY
SUNRISE AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. ONGOING
CONVECTION IS ISOLATED AND WEAK...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
STABILIZING EFFECT OUT AHEAD OF DRYLINE CONVECTION EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN FACT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CURRENTLY
VISIBLE ON RADAR COULD SERVE AS INITIATION POINTS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DEEPENS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 30-40KTS...SURFACE
CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500J/KG AND A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT
WITH 700MB TEMPS IN LOW SINGLE DIGITS CELSIUS...STRONGEST UPDRAFTS
SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY IN PRODUCING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE LEVEL WIND GUSTS...UP TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED TORNADOES...HODOGRAPHS ALSO FAVOR THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH LCL/S ANY TORNADOES WOULD BE ON THE LOW END OF EF-
SCALE.

DECENT CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH CIPS ANALOG
GUIDANCE PROVIDING CONFIDENCE...OF A DRYLINE FORMING THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS...PRIMARILY JUST TO THE EAST OF LUBBOCK. SPC HAS ISSUED
AN ENHANCED DAY 1 RISK THAT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST AND NORTH FROM
PREVIOUS UPDATES...AND CURRENTLY COVERS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE...NORTHEAST SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP SOON AFTER 21Z WITH PEAK
HEATING...APPROX IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND ALSO COINCIDING WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF NEW MEXICO THAT TRANSECTS THE
DRYLINE AROUND THIS TIME. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY INTENSIFYING INTO
SUPERCELLS IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST INSTABILITY WHICH AT THIS TIME
WOULD EXTEND FROM CROSBY COUNTY EAST THROUGH KING COUNTY AND
NORTHWARD THROUGH BRISCOE AND CHILDRESS COUNTY. AS THE STORMS
EVOLVE AND THE DRYLINE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD INTO THE EVENING
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BACK BUILD TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST...THESE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT MAINLY WITH
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. LATEST INTERMEDIATE 6Z GUIDANCE HINTS
AT A WEAK SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE DRYLINE CONVECTION EVOLVES BEFORE HAVING MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SCENARIO.


.LONG TERM...
THE UA LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND THUS UL SUPPORT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING VIA
LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED EAST FROM THE ERN NM TO
ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE UA LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT TIED TO
THE PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN
CANADA...HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT IT PINCHING OFF LATER TODAY
AND THUS BECOME MORE CONCENTRIC. AS SUCH...THE SPEED OF THE UA LOW
COULD SLOW DOWN/BECOME WOBBLY AS THE CENTER GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST TO
ACROSS NM TONIGHT...AND TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY EARLY
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.

DESPITE BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS WRT TO THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE UA
LOW...THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH A FEW OF THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES. TOMORROW...THE GFS IS QUITE ROBUST IN SHIFTING THE DRYLINE
TO JUST EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE AFTN HOURS...GIVEN ITS
DEPICTION OF A DEEPER NEARBY SFC TROUGH AND THUS BREEZY W-SW SFC
WINDS INVADING THE FA. THE NAM AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER-HAND EXHIBITS
THE DRYLINE TO SHARPEN UP AOA THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT BY THE
AFTN...WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEPICTION OF THE SFC TROUGH...THEREBY
LEADING TO LIGHTER W-SW WIND SPEEDS. THIS COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN CI OCCURRING ACROSS OUR ERN FRINGES OF THE CWA PER THE
GFS...OR OFF THE CAPROCK PER THE NAM AND ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE /PWATS OF 1.00 INCH OR SO
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/...MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND 40-45 KTS OF 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR...STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...MAKING THE
LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT. SINCE THE GFS IS THE
OUTLIER...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE OTHER SOLUTIONS AND THEREFORE
MAINTAIN HIGHEST POPS OFF THE CAPROCK TOMORROW. THE DRYLINE WILL
RETREAT CLOSE TO ON THE CAPROCK TOMORROW NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED EWRD TO EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
BY SATURDAY AFTN...COURTESY OF A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY W-SW SFC WINDS. THIS IS A SIGN OF THE UA LOW/S NWRD
JOG TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND HENCE THE CWA GETTING DRYSLOTTED.
BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEREFORE SHIFT NORTH AND EAST SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPINGING ON
THE NRN AND NERN ZONES SUNDAY...BUT THAT WILL BE DEPEND ON THE UA
LOW/S EXACT TRACK /THE GFS IS A TAD QUICKER/FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UA LOW AND HENCE IS NOT SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/.

A SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY BUT
FLEETING LARGE SCALE ASCENT COULD MAKE ADDITIONAL PRECIP HARD-
PRESSED TO DEVELOP. THEREAFTER...W-NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL MONDAY-
TUESDAY...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO AN E-SE COMPONENT. THIS WILL
ENCOURAGE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT MAY BE THAT SYNOPTIC SPARK TO
INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY MID-WEEK...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH THE RETURN OF THE DRYLINE MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP.

CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND THEREFORE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPS AOA SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  43  68  41 /  30  30  10  10
TULIA         76  50  72  44 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     76  52  72  45 /  50  40  30  10
LEVELLAND     76  50  72  44 /  30  40  20  10
LUBBOCK       78  53  74  46 /  50  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   76  49  72  44 /  20  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    77  52  74  46 /  30  40  20  10
CHILDRESS     77  58  78  55 /  70  60  50  30
SPUR          78  56  76  53 /  60  60  40  20
ASPERMONT     80  60  77  56 /  60  60  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/29
055
FXUS64 KLUB 160449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT ANY TAF SITE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE AT SOME FOG MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY AT KCDS ON
THURSDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT. A MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCE MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY EVEN
RECEIVE A REINFORCING BOOST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT. LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
AT ALL TAF SITES BUT WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SEE FOG DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY AT ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  74  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         51  75  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     52  75  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     54  76  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       55  77  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   53  76  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  77  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  77  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          57  78  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  79  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
464
FXUS64 KLUB 152340
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY EVEN
RECEIVE A REINFORCING BOOST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE
MOMENT. LIGHT VISBY RESTRICTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING
AT ALL TAF SITES BUT WINDS MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SEE FOG DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON POTENTIALLY AT ALL TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  74  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         51  75  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     52  75  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     54  76  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       55  77  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   53  76  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  77  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  77  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          57  78  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  79  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/99/
077
FXUS64 KLUB 152006
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         52  71  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     53  72  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     53  75  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       54  76  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   54  74  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  76  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  75  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          56  77  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  78  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
308
FXUS64 KLUB 151953
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY. SKIP TO
FINAL PARAGRAPH IN THE SHORT TERM FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THURSDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LINEAR HIGH-BASED CUMULUS FIELD WAS PERCOLATING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER OUR WEST-NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS STARTING TO OVERSPREAD
FROM THE WEST. UPPER LOW NEAR VERNAL UTAH LATE TODAY WILL SWIRL
SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNER LATE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLE STRONGER LIFT AND DIFLUENCE
ZONE APPROACHES LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ENERGETIC LOBE SWINGING
NORTHEAST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

THIS EVENING...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BECOME DEPLETED AS
EXPECTED WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ON THE INCREASE. INSTABILITY
ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
OVER WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE INCREASING WIND FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGH-BASED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OUT EAST...A DRYLINE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE MAY EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AND COULD LEAD TO
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BREAK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING PERHAPS DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS HALL-
BRISCOE COUNTY AREA THOUGH WE ARE NOT YET SEEING CUMULUS IN THIS
REGION.

OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE THAT NEXT ROUND OF DYNAMIC LIFT...AND
COUPLED WITH IMPROVING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN THUNDER MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WESTERN
ZONES. HOW FAR THIS COULD SPREAD EAST IS UNCERTAIN BUT WE HAVE
RETAINED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER LATER TONIGHT FAVORING OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES. INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 JOULES PER KILOGRAM
COULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED HAIL WITH THIS BATCH. WE
CANT RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF A MATURE COLD POOL
SPREADING CONVECTION INTO FAR EASTERN ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT.

ALSO CANT RULE OUT PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TONIGHT MAINLY EASTERN
ZONES BUT SURFACE FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A NOTCH OR TWO STRONGER AND
SHOULD KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BETTER MIXED SO HAVE LEFT THIS MENTION
OUT. AND LATE THURSDAY MORNING COULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUD DEBRIS
AND A FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDER SWIRL OFF INTO EASTERN ZONES.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A DRY-LINE THAT MAY START OUT NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO LINE EARLIER SHOULD SURGE EAST TOWARDS CENTRAL ZONES WITH
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SOLID THUNDER CHANCES ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE FROM CENTRAL AREAS SPREADING INTO EASTERN LATE IN THE
DAY. INSTABILITY OF AT LEAST 1500 AND POSSIBLE 2500 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 25-50 KNOT RANGE INDICATE A
SOLID POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
CASE ANALOGS WITH PAST SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING EVENTS AND HAS LED
TO AN ENHANCED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA FOR THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS FOR LATE
THURSDAY. WE ALREADY HAVE RAMPED UP WORDING IN PRODUCTS TO INDICATE
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
BEST TORNADO THREAT SEEMINGLY WOULD BE LATE IN THE DAY MAINLY
EASTERN ZONES WITH LOCAL LENGTHENING OF THE LOWEST HODOGRAPH REGION
AS STRONGER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHIFTING OF THE DRY-LINE POSITION WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BASED ON
RECENT TRENDS RELATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW. THURSDAY
WILL CERTAINLY BE A DAY TO KEEP TUNED TO THE SKY AND FORECAST.
RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
THE DRYLINE ON FRIDAY WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY THE EARLY MORNING
BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF
THE RETREAT IS IN QUESTION AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER ON POSITION.
THE NAM RETREATS THE DRYLINE BACK INTO EASTERN NM WHILE THE ECMWF
ONLY BRINGS THE DRYLINE BACK TO JUST WEST OF THE EDGE OF THE
CAPROCK. REGARDLESS OF POSITION THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF SEEING CONVECTION TRIGGERED BY THE DRYLINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES OF THE FA. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SVR STORMS EXISTS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE UPWARDS OF
1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-55 KTS...DRY AIR ALOFT AND INVERTED
LOW LEVEL PROFILES. THE NAME SHOWS A CLOUD DECK AT 700H WHICH COULD
INHIBIT SOME OF THE SEVERITY OF STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THIS DECK WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT AS THE NAM IS THE MOST PERSISTENT
MODEL TO SHOW THIS. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW NEARS THE TX/NM
STATE LINE. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL PUT US IN A DRY SLOT WITH CHANCES OF RECEIVING WRAP
AROUND PRECIP DECREASING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH ON SUNDAY COOLING TEMPS TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE...MID
60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL DOMINATE UNTIL LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY WHEN FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH AGREE FAIRLY WELL THAT
SURFACE FLOW WILL TURN TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROF THAT WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPMENT A FEW EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES HELP KEEP PRECIP SUSTAINED THRU WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  41  67 /  30  40  30  10
TULIA         52  71  47  69 /  30  60  40  30
PLAINVIEW     53  72  48  69 /  30  60  40  30
LEVELLAND     53  75  48  71 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       54  76  50  72 /  30  60  40  20
DENVER CITY   54  74  48  71 /  30  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    55  76  50  72 /  30  40  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  75  55  74 /  20  60  60  50
SPUR          56  77  54  73 /  20  60  50  50
ASPERMONT     59  78  57  76 /  20  60  60  50

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
073
FXUS64 KLUB 151738
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FOUR-
CORNERS AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY BY LATE THURSDAY. WEAK
DYNAMIC LIFT WILL INCREASE WEST OF KLBB AND KPVW LATE TODAY AND
MAY ALLOW A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...
MOST LIKELY REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF KLBB BUT COULD ENCROACH UPON
KLBB MAINLY AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. THERE ALSO IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
ISOLATED DRY-LINE THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF KCDS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO PRECLUDES MENTION IN THIS TAF. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY KCDS BUT DOES NOT LOOK ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME. EARLY MORNING THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD WANE LATE
THURSDAY MORNING PRIOR TO A LARGER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING TAF SITES LATER THURSDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

AVIATION...
KCDS IS CURRENTLY IFR WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1/2MI
AND 1MI THE PAST FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOG LIFTING BY
14Z AS TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND MORNING INVERSION ERODES. KPVW
AND KLBB REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT- 15KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT THE TERMINALS...STRONGER
UP TO 20KTS SUSTAINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS
POINT DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS AS ADVERTISED. HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WITH AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW KS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT MORE IF NOT FOR SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F-40F. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
DID NOT RECEIVE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS THAT OTHER PARTS OF OUR
CWA DID OVER THE PAST WEEK. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTNING STRIKES A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. DO BELIEVE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
BOTH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BEST SURFACE FORCING.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD TOMORROW THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE UA TROUGH NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT GFS MODEL RUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...ECMWF AND DGEX/ WRT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH
OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WHILST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK-
WEEKEND. WITH THE UA LOW BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC...THAT USUALLY
SUGGESTS A SLOW AND AT TIMES WOBBLY MOVEMENT WHICH A FEW SOLUTIONS
DO EXHIBIT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN SYNCH IN SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...COURTESY OF
ANOTHER SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH IT TO THE
EAST.

AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AND AID IN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY
TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SRLY SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SE MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN...THUS FILTERING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. ON THE
CAPROCK...S-SW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A DEEPENING NEARBY
SFC TROUGH...THEREBY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL SHARPEN ON THE CAPROCK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CURRENT RUNS
HOLDS UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
RETREATS IT BY THE AFTN AS BREEZY SW SFC WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE /HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS/...DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COUPLED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG /WITHIN PROXIMITY
OF THE DRYLINE/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S /AOA 5000 FT AGL/
WITHIN THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE MAY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS STRONGER
THAN DEPICTED.

DRY SLOTTING IS BEING SHOWN TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS W-SW SFC WINDS
GETS USHERED IN BY THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA LOW. HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INVADE THE REGION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...BUT OVERALL BEST POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UA LOW
DEPARTS. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE AND SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UA LOW NEARS THE REGION AND PROMOTE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL /70S ON THURSDAY DROPPING TO 60S AND 70S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY/. NEAR NORM TEMPS WILL ENDURE INTO EARLY NEXT AS WE
COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP.

FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS COINCIDING WITH PEAK 20FT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20KTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHTNING FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        47  72  42  65 /  40  40  30  20
TULIA         52  71  46  67 /  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     53  72  47  67 /  30  40  50  30
LEVELLAND     53  75  46  69 /  30  40  40  20
LUBBOCK       54  76  48  70 /  30  40  50  30
DENVER CITY   54  74  47  69 /  30  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    55  76  48  70 /  30  30  40  20
CHILDRESS     56  75  56  72 /  30  60  60  40
SPUR          56  77  53  71 /  30  60  60  30
ASPERMONT     59  78  56  74 /  30  60  60  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
402
FXUS64 KLUB 151211
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
KCDS IS CURRENTLY IFR WITH VISIBILITIES FLUCUATING BETWEEN 1/2MI
AND 1MI THE PAST FEW HOURS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FOG LIFTING BY
14Z AS TEMPS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND MORNING INVERSION ERODES. KPVW
AND KLBB REMAINED VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10KT- 15KT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AT THE TERMINALS...STRONGER
UP TO 20KTS SUSTAINED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY BUT GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION AT THIS
POINT DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS AS ADVERTISED. HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WITH AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW KS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT MORE IF NOT FOR SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F-40F. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
DID NOT RECEIVE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS THAT OTHER PARTS OF OUR
CWA DID OVER THE PAST WEEK. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTNING STRIKES A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. DO BELIEVE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
BOTH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BEST SURFACE FORCING.

LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD TOMORROW THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE UA TROUGH NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT GFS MODEL RUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...ECMWF AND DGEX/ WRT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH
OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WHILST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK-
WEEKEND. WITH THE UA LOW BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC...THAT USUALLY
SUGGESTS A SLOW AND AT TIMES WOBBLY MOVEMENT WHICH A FEW SOLUTIONS
DO EXHIBIT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN SYNCH IN SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...COURTESY OF
ANOTHER SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH IT TO THE
EAST.

AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AND AID IN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY
TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SRLY SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SE MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN...THUS FILTERING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. ON THE
CAPROCK...S-SW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A DEEPENING NEARBY
SFC TROUGH...THEREBY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL SHARPEN ON THE CAPROCK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CURRENT RUNS
HOLDS UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
RETREATS IT BY THE AFTN AS BREEZY SW SFC WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE /HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS/...DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COUPLED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG /WITHIN PROXIMITY
OF THE DRYLINE/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S /AOA 5000 FT AGL/
WITHIN THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE MAY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS STRONGER
THAN DEPICTED.

DRY SLOTTING IS BEING SHOWN TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS W-SW SFC WINDS
GETS USHERED IN BY THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA LOW. HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INVADE THE REGION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...BUT OVERALL BEST POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UA LOW
DEPARTS. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE AND SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UA LOW NEARS THE REGION AND PROMOTE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL /70S ON THURSDAY DROPPING TO 60S AND 70S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY/. NEAR NORM TEMPS WILL ENDURE INTO EARLY NEXT AS WE
COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP.

FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS COINCIDING WITH PEAK 20FT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20KTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHTNING FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  47  72  42 /  20  40  40  30
TULIA         78  52  71  46 /  20  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     78  53  72  47 /  20  30  40  50
LEVELLAND     77  53  75  46 /  20  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       78  54  76  48 /  10  30  40  50
DENVER CITY   78  54  74  47 /  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    78  55  76  48 /  10  30  30  40
CHILDRESS     79  56  75  56 /  10  30  60  60
SPUR          79  56  77  53 /  10  30  60  60
ASPERMONT     81  59  78  56 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/55
366
FXUS64 KLUB 150927
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
427 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING
FOUR CORNERS AS ADVERTISED. HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY EVENTUALLY REACHING OUR NORTHWEST ZONES BY MID-
AFTERNOON...WITH AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW KS THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE WE MAY SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP AND WOULD EXPECT MORE IF NOT FOR SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RESULTING IN DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30F-40F. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
DID NOT RECEIVE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS THAT OTHER PARTS OF OUR
CWA DID OVER THE PAST WEEK. GIVEN DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION RESULTING IN LIGHTNING STRIKES A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS.

MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CWA...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASED SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION UNDERNEATH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. DO BELIEVE BEST CHANCES REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN THEIR PROXIMITY TO THE
BOTH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BEST SURFACE FORCING.

.LONG TERM...
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL STILL LOOKS GOOD TOMORROW THRU SUNDAY
MORNING...AS THE UA TROUGH NW OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING IS STILL PROGGED TO IMPINGE ON THE SRN PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RECENT GFS MODEL RUN LOOKS TO BE A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...ECMWF AND DGEX/ WRT TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. IT IS PROGGED TO PINCH
OFF FROM THE PARENT LOW TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA ON
THURSDAY...WHILST DIGGING SSE TO ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND
SETS ITS SIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEK-
WEEKEND. WITH THE UA LOW BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC...THAT USUALLY
SUGGESTS A SLOW AND AT TIMES WOBBLY MOVEMENT WHICH A FEW SOLUTIONS
DO EXHIBIT. LONG TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MORE IN SYNCH IN SHOWING THE
DISTURBANCE EXITING THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...COURTESY OF
ANOTHER SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS DISTURBANCE THAT WILL PUSH IT TO THE
EAST.

AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW AND AID IN INCREASING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT...THERE WILL ALSO BE MESOSCALE FEATURES AT PLAY
TO AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. SRLY SFC WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL
BACK TO THE SE MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK BY THE AFTN...THUS FILTERING
IN RICH GULF MOISTURE /PWATS INCREASING TO 0.50-1.00 INCH WITH
HIGHEST VALUES NOTED ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. ON THE
CAPROCK...S-SW SFC WINDS WILL BE THE RULE DUE TO A DEEPENING NEARBY
SFC TROUGH...THEREBY PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRYLINE THAT
WILL SHARPEN ON THE CAPROCK. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE HINTED AT A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CURRENT RUNS
HOLDS UP THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY AND
RETREATS IT BY THE AFTN AS BREEZY SW SFC WINDS BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS ERN NM. THE DRYLINE WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CI...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE /HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS/...DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE COUPLED WITH
STEEPENED LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF 1-2 KJ/KG /WITHIN PROXIMITY
OF THE DRYLINE/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE...RELATIVELY LOW LCL/S /AOA 5000 FT AGL/
WITHIN THE MOIST SIDE OF THE DRYLINE MAY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR ISOLATED
TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL ROTATION IS STRONGER
THAN DEPICTED.

DRY SLOTTING IS BEING SHOWN TO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY AS W-SW SFC WINDS
GETS USHERED IN BY THE SWRN FLANK OF THE UA LOW. HOW QUICKLY THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL INVADE THE REGION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...BUT OVERALL BEST POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS THE UA LOW
DEPARTS. THEREAFTER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL ENSUE AND SFC WINDS WILL
RETURN TO A SERLY FLOW BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONCURRENTLY...AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COULD INSTIGATE
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY. WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UA LOW NEARS THE REGION AND PROMOTE INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL /70S ON THURSDAY DROPPING TO 60S AND 70S
FRIDAY-SUNDAY/. NEAR NORM TEMPS WILL ENDURE INTO EARLY NEXT AS WE
COULD GET ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE RH VALUES ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS COINCIDING WITH PEAK 20FT SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 20KTS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW END FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. OUR NORTHWEST ZONES MISSED OUT ON SOME OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEKEND. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHTNING FROM ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL BE
ISSUING A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  47  72  42 /  20  40  40  30
TULIA         78  52  71  46 /  20  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     78  53  72  47 /  20  30  40  50
LEVELLAND     77  53  75  46 /  20  30  40  40
LUBBOCK       78  54  76  48 /  10  30  40  50
DENVER CITY   78  54  74  47 /  20  30  20  30
BROWNFIELD    78  55  76  48 /  10  30  30  40
CHILDRESS     79  56  75  56 /  10  30  60  60
SPUR          79  56  77  53 /  10  30  60  60
ASPERMONT     81  59  78  56 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

55/29
717
FXUS64 KLUB 150502 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 AM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KLBB AND KPVW THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS ARE APPROACHING CHILDRESS FROM THE WEST
AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN A FEW HOURS. THESE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP
DOWN INTO IFR RANGE BUT WILL KEEP KCDS MVFR RANGE FOR NOW.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK INTO VFR RANGE AT KCDS LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AT KLBB AND KPVW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT KCDS.
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME. LEFT AN INDICATION THAT THIS POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WILL
EVALUATE THROUGH THIS EVENING TO SEE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES FOR KCDS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING ALOFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS GRADUALLY TAKING
OVER LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
SURGE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS FOLLOWING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. QUESTIONABLE IF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REMAINING CAP CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
SO SHIFTED THUNDER MENTION TO FAVOR WESTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WOULD BE MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG NORTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MORE BACKED WHILE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS RETAIN HIGHEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE CANT RULE OUT
PERHAPS LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AREA OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN
THOUGH SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING AT THIS TIME SO ALSO LEAVING MENTION
OUT. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO REMAINING GRIDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20
MPH...POSSIBLY 25-30 MPH GUSTS NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. REFRAINING FROM
FIRE WEATHER MENTION GIVEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME RECENT RAINFALL THIS AREA.

RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WED AS A FRONT PUSHES
TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MEETS THE DRYLINE. BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO FOR THE MOST PART AGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN BEING LIKE A BOX OF CHOCOLATES...YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU/RE
GOING TO GET. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL AID IN LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITH SUPPLYING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A DECENT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ONE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR TO HAVING SVR STORMS WOULD BE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND DECREASE INSTABILITY. ONE THING THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER ON IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
LACKING AT THE SURFACE AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STANDING WATER IN PLAYA LAKES...FROM THE RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO HELP
ADD TO AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOWER AFTER
THURS AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WEST TX WILL GET DRY SLOTTED OR NOT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE POSITION OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD
DRYSLOT THE REGION THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THRU BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  76  43  67 /   0  20  30  50
TULIA         42  77  49  67 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  77  50  69 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     45  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  79  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
DENVER CITY   45  77  52  74 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    46  78  53  74 /   0  10  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  79  56  73 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          45  79  56  74 /   0  10  30  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  77 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
697
FXUS64 KLUB 142338 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TOMORROW AT KLBB AND KPVW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AT KCDS.
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AT OR BELOW 1000 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL
TIME. LEFT AN INDICATION THAT THIS POTENTIAL IS THERE AND WILL
EVALUATE THROUGH THIS EVENING TO SEE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES FOR KCDS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING ALOFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS GRADUALLY TAKING
OVER LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
SURGE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS FOLLOWING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. QUESTIONABLE IF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REMAINING CAP CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
SO SHIFTED THUNDER MENTION TO FAVOR WESTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WOULD BE MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG NORTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MORE BACKED WHILE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS RETAIN HIGHEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE CANT RULE OUT
PERHAPS LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AREA OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN
THOUGH SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING AT THIS TIME SO ALSO LEAVING MENTION
OUT. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO REMAINING GRIDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20
MPH...POSSIBLY 25-30 MPH GUSTS NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. REFRAINING FROM
FIRE WEATHER MENTION GIVEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME RECENT RAINFALL THIS AREA.

RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WED AS A FRONT PUSHES
TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MEETS THE DRYLINE. BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO FOR THE MOST PART AGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN BEING LIKE A BOX OF CHOCOLATES...YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU/RE
GOING TO GET. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL AID IN LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITH SUPPLYING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A DECENT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ONE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR TO HAVING SVR STORMS WOULD BE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND DECREASE INSTABILITY. ONE THING THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER ON IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
LACKING AT THE SURFACE AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STANDING WATER IN PLAYA LAKES...FROM THE RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO HELP
ADD TO AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOWER AFTER
THURS AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WEST TX WILL GET DRY SLOTTED OR NOT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE POSITION OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD
DRYSLOT THE REGION THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THRU BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  76  43  67 /   0  20  30  50
TULIA         42  77  49  67 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  77  50  69 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     45  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  79  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
DENVER CITY   45  77  52  74 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    46  78  53  74 /   0  10  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  79  56  73 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          45  79  56  74 /   0  10  30  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  77 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
854
FXUS64 KLUB 142000
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
300 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST OVERNIGHT LEADING TO INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DIGS TOWARDS THE FOUR-CORNERS. HEIGHT FALLS AND BACKING ALOFT
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN BORDER LATE IN THE DAY WITH WEAK MID
LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT. THE COOL AND STABLE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS GRADUALLY TAKING
OVER LEADING TO GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOWER LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND
SURGE TOWARDS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DRIER
LOWER LEVELS FOLLOWING MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. QUESTIONABLE IF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK REMAINING CAP CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
SO SHIFTED THUNDER MENTION TO FAVOR WESTERN ZONES. THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WOULD BE MOSTLY HIGH-BASED SO MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM. WE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG NORTHEAST ZONES
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MORE BACKED WHILE SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS RETAIN HIGHEST RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A FEW AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WE CANT RULE OUT
PERHAPS LIGHT FOG SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AREA OF RECENT HEAVY RAIN
THOUGH SOLUTIONS NOT INDICATING AT THIS TIME SO ALSO LEAVING MENTION
OUT. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES TO REMAINING GRIDS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
WILL WARM CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. SURFACE WINDS APPROACHING 20
MPH...POSSIBLY 25-30 MPH GUSTS NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT. REFRAINING FROM
FIRE WEATHER MENTION GIVEN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AND
WITH AT LEAST SOME RECENT RAINFALL THIS AREA.

RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WED AS A FRONT PUSHES
TO THE TX PANHANDLE AND MEETS THE DRYLINE. BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE RETREATING
DRYLINE PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO FOR THE MOST PART AGREE WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW WHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH EACH MODEL
RUN BEING LIKE A BOX OF CHOCOLATES...YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT YOU/RE
GOING TO GET. THE APPROACHING LOW WILL AID IN LIFT ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITH SUPPLYING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A DECENT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR
SVR POTENTIAL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG
ALONG THE DRYLINE IN ADDITION TO 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE ONE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTOR TO HAVING SVR STORMS WOULD BE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW A HIGH CLOUD DECK WHICH WOULD INHIBIT SOLAR
INSOLATION AND DECREASE INSTABILITY. ONE THING THAT CONFIDENCE IS A
BIT HIGHER ON IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MOISTURE SHOULD NOT BE
LACKING AT THE SURFACE AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
STANDING WATER IN PLAYA LAKES...FROM THE RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO HELP
ADD TO AVAILABLE SURFACE MOISTURE.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW
ENCROACHES UPON THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOWER AFTER
THURS AS THE NAM AND ECMWF DIFFER A BIT ON POSITION OF THE LOW WHICH
WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WEST TX WILL GET DRY SLOTTED OR NOT. THE
ECMWF HAS THE POSITION OF THE LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTH WHICH WOULD
DRYSLOT THE REGION THANKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. CHANCES WILL BE
GREATER OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS THANKS TO MOIST UPSLOPE EASTERLY
FLOW. A COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THRU BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.

ALDRICH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  76  43  67 /   0  20  30  50
TULIA         42  77  49  67 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  77  50  69 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     45  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  79  53  72 /   0  10  30  50
DENVER CITY   45  77  52  74 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    46  78  53  74 /   0  10  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  79  56  73 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          45  79  56  74 /   0  10  30  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  77 /   0  10  30  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/51
220
FXUS64 KLUB 141750
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS...MOVING EAST. AIRMASS STABILIZING ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERHAPS A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD WILL BUILD
UP MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDS-KLBB THIS AFTERNOON. LATE
TONIGHT STILL SEEING SIGNS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AND PERHAPS PATCHY
STRATUS NEAR KCDS...LESS SIGNAL SOUTHWEST OF KLBB WHERE THE BULK
OF THE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. WE ADDED A MINIMAL MENTION OF
FOG FOR KCDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE
TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS MANAGED TO DEVELOP AND NOW EXTEND ABOUT 30-60 MILES WEST
OF KPVW AND KLBB. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE FCST
AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER NW TEXAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA PER WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN PERSISTS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP PROBABLY
HANGING ON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO AT LEAST MID-MORNING. THE
AFTN SHOULD THEN BE PRECIP-FREE AS THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER NRN
OKLAHOMA BY 18Z. ABUNDANT MID CLOUD KEEPING STRATUS AND FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ALREADY WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF ERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLE WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DRY ADVECTION INTO THE NWRN FCST AREA TO KEEP THOSE CONCERNS AT BAY.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES TO WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER THE MOIST GROUND THIS
AFTN WITH DIURNAL WARMING. TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR MOS
VALUES LOOK FINE ATTM.

LONG TERM...
AFTER THE UA LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...A BRIEF
BREAK FROM PRECIP IS STILL PROGGED TO OCCUR THUS AFTN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OFF WHILST NEARING THE FOUR- CORNERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. DURING WHICH TIME A FEW THINGS WILL BE HAPPENING:
AN EWRD MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW WINDS. A DIFFUSED DRYLINE WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE FA /SETTLING AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT/...WITH A
TIGHTER/BETTER CONVERGENT SIGNAL NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THUS IT COULD PERHAPS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTN AS EXHIBITED PER THE BULLISH
NAM. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP DURING THE AFTN HOURS
LIKELY BECAUSE MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE /PWATS
AOA 0.50 INCHES/ AND AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
VERY SHARP ACROSS THE CWA. NONETHELESS...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL INSERT BARELY MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR LOCALES MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING- NIGHT...PWATS IMPROVE TO 0.90 INCHES AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE SOLUTIONS /INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES TTU WRF/ SHOW CI OCCURRING
MORE SO DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. FURTHERMORE...MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO 600 J/KG OR SO COUPLED WITH VEERING VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES /WITH SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING- NIGHT/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 25-35
KTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WRT TO THE BEHAVIOR OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW...AS IT IS SHOWN TO STILL BE CONNECTED TO THE
PARENT TROUGH TRANSLATING EWRD ACROSS SRN CANADA A LOT LONGER
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS...HENCE DEPICTING A MORE DAMPENED AND
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVING UA LOW NEARING THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...EMCWF AND DGEX/ EXHIBITS A
MORE CONCENTRIC UA LOW THAT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH...AND SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY WEEKEND.
NONETHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS VALID.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES BY
THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...SW FLOW ALOFT...MUCAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK
INCREASES FURTHER HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THEREAFTER...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT GIVEN THE ONSET OF DRYSLOTTING. THE
UA LOW WILL GET SWEPT UP ANOTHER FAST MOVING UA TROUGH DIVING SE
FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BUT LACK OF UL SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO NIL POPS. DRY NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION /70S AND
80S ON WEDNESDAY FALLING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/. WE WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  75  45  64 /   0  10  30  40
TULIA         43  76  49  66 /   0  20  30  50
PLAINVIEW     44  75  50  68 /   0  20  30  60
LEVELLAND     46  77  52  70 /   0  20  30  40
LUBBOCK       45  77  53  72 /   0  20  30  50
DENVER CITY   46  77  52  72 /   0  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    47  77  53  73 /   0  20  30  40
CHILDRESS     45  78  56  72 /   0  10  30  60
SPUR          46  78  56  74 /   0  10  40  60
ASPERMONT     47  80  58  78 /   0  10  40  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.