Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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075
FXUS64 KLUB 201742
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT RICH MOISTURE HAS KEPT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
IN THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE DO EXPECT
KCDS TO SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KLBB AND HAVE ONLY INDICATED MVFR
CONDITIONS THERE. FOG AND LOW CIGS SHOULD THEN RE-ENVELOP KLBB THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN AT KCDS. FOR NOW...WE HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR CONDITIONS AT KCDS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
POSSIBILITY OF WORSE CONDITIONS. SHOWERS /PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM/ COULD ALSO AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND CATEGORY CHANGES
THE LIKELIHOOD OF AMENDMENTS IS HIGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO RECONFIGURE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS
SLIGHTLY TO BEST ACCOUNT FOR RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN...WITH SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE RAIN TOTALS. THE WTM
SITE NEAR GAIL HAS RECORDED OVER 10 INCHES SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH
NEARLY 4 INCHES AT FLUVANNA. OBSERVED 12 HOUR TOTALS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE NOT QUITE SO HIGH...THOUGH
MANY 1 TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS WERE NOTED...WITH RADAR INDICATING A FEW
POCKETS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES LIKELY FOR PARTS OF TERRY...LYNN AND
GARZA COUNTIES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...MANY ROADWAYS HAVE BEEN FLOODED
AND THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE VALID. WE DO EXPECT THIS
TROPICAL-LIKE ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH AT LEAST ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME MODEST DRYING ALOFT
INTO TONIGHT AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF MID/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SUPPORT AT LEAST POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE ACTIVITY LATER
TODAY TOO. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS PLAY OUT THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL THEN DECIDE ON WHETHER OR NOT TO MODIFY THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH. THE UPDATE FORECAST GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CEILINGS AT KLBB THIS MORNING BEFORE
LIKELY LIFTING TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING NEAR THE TERMINAL WITH SHOWERS
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AND GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH LOOKS TO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE TONIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR THIS IN LATER
FORECASTS. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE BRUNT OF THE NEXT 24
HOURS. DID INSERT A TEMPO FOR MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS REMAINS IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. RAIN CHANCES ARE LESS
LIKELY THAN AT KLBB...AND WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE BEST TIMING FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO REACH THE TERMINAL...HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER CIRCULATION/REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE CONTINUE TO
WOBBLE NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TRANS PECOS/PERMIAN
BASIN. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THIS UPPER LIFT...WITH OCCASIONAL
BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN
ROLLING PLAINS WITH A FEW APPROACHING THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TAKE PLACE PAST DAYBREAK AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE THIS ENERGY DIVES SOUTH TOWARD THE
PERMIAN BASIN PUSHING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE THE
RESULT OF INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTERED ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THIS OCCURS
WITH A JET STREAK NOSING INTO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE/ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

WHILE FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. AS OF 3 AM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT
POCKET OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. WITH THE PROGGED
SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ENTRAINING DRIER AIR ABOVE
H50 TODAY...SATURATION DEPTHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE THAN THOSE EXPERIENCED FRIDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ELECT TO
DROP THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHILE KEEPING EVERYWHERE ELSE COVERED AT THIS
TIME. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE TRAINING OF CELLS OVER SATURATED
LOCATIONS WITH ACTIVITY THIS MORNING SHIFTING A BIT NORTH THEN BACK
SOUTH AGAIN...POTENTIALLY OVER THE SAME AREAS...LATER TODAY.
AGAIN...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND WESTERN ROLLING
PLAINS HAVE SEEN HEALTHY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THREE
TO FOUR INCHES OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...THUS MAINTAINING THEIR
MENTION IN THE FLOOD WATCH.

CLOUDY SKIES AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE
80S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE. THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR A SMALL
DIURNAL SWING AGAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SIMPLE RIDGE ON THE H5 CHARTS IS ANYTHING BUT
AS ITS WHATS GOING ON UNDER 18KFT WHICH WILL SO KEENLY DRIVE THE
WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  UPPER LOW ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INTO
WYOMING GIVING US A WEAK POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH ON TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING EAST /WITH A TRAILING TROUGH AXIS/ LATE WEEK.  BY NEXT
WEEKEND TROUGHING IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE OUT WEST BUT EXACTLY WHERE
AND IN WHAT ORIENTATION REMAIN NEBULOUS.

SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH REGARD TO BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON THIS
MORNING/S RUNS THUS PAINTING A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION.
OVERALL...RUNS SHOW A DRIER /BUT NOT DRY/ PICTURE ACROSS OUR CWFA.
AS THE CHANGES ARE QUITE DRAMATIC FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS...WILL NOT
NECESSARILY EMBRACE IT WITH FULL DYNAMIC RANGE BUT NOTE THE TREND
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. THE SOUTH AND WEST SEEM TO KEEP THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE GETTING
SHUNTED WEST INTO ERN NM. INTO SUNDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION
BECOMES ENHANCED INVOF FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST. WILL NOT
TRY TO GET TOO CUTE WITH THE GRIDS AS WEAKLY FORCED SYSTEMS SUCH
AS THIS OFTEN DO NOT BEHAVE AS PROGGED. ON MONDAY...THE SLUG OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH IS PUSHED INTO NM STARTS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD A
BIT. ALL IN ALL...HAVE A HARD TIME ELIMINATING RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT ANY DAY NEXT WEEK AS ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. THAT SAID...IT WOULD APPEAR THE ROLLING PLAINS HAS THE
BEST SHOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY TUESDAY ONWARD. GIVEN THIS...WILL
CONTINUE INHERITED TREND OF LOWER THAN ADVERTISED DIURNAL RANGE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH SLOWLY DECREASING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  75  58  75  59 /  30  50  40  50  20
TULIA         62  77  61  76  60 /  30  50  30  40  20
PLAINVIEW     64  77  61  77  62 /  40  50  30  40  20
LEVELLAND     64  77  61  78  61 /  50  60  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       65  77  63  78  65 /  60  60  30  40  20
DENVER CITY   66  77  60  79  62 /  60  60  30  50  20
BROWNFIELD    66  77  60  79  61 /  60  60  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     69  83  66  81  65 /  30  30  30  30  30
SPUR          66  81  64  82  64 /  60  50  20  30  20
ASPERMONT     67  84  66  83  66 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ027>031-033>037-039>043.

&&

$$

23/07/23

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