Area Forecast Discussion
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697
FXUS64 KLUB 280042
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECLINING THE LAST FEW
HOURS...WHICH RESULTED IN CURRENT TEMPERATURES EQUATING FORECASTED
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE TO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPERATURE AND SEE IF ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL
BE WARRANTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE IMPACTING ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING. FURTHERMORE...-SN HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT ALL THREE TAF-
SITES WHICH COULD BE AFFECTING VIS. COMPUTER MODELS HINT AT A LULL
OF THE -SN LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION RETURNING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS TIME IN THE
FORM OF -FZDZ /AT KLBB AND KPVW/ AND -FZDZSN /AT KCDS/. HAVE
ELECTED TO INSERT A PROB30 FOR THIS PLAUSIBILITY. NOT EXPECTING
MAJOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS BUT COULD STILL MAKE RUNWAYS A BIT SLICK
AS OVERNIGHT TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. DURING THE RE-
ESTABLISHMENT OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...CIGS WILL
DETERIORATED IFR TO POSSIBLY LIFR CRITERIA...AND VIS
REMAINING/FALLING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. OTHERWISE...LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
THE THREAT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE DIGGING ACROSS ARIZONA INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST...BRINGING THE
INITIAL SHOT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DESPITE THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT REMAINING WELL
NORTH INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. WOULD EXPECT ANY
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO BE CONFINED TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH AS
THIS WAVE PASSES BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

THE LARGER CYCLONIC FLOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WAVE WILL DIG ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AND BEGIN TO BACK THE LOCAL UPPER FLOW TO MORE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...HELPING TO BRING A HEALTHY DOSE OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AS TEMPERATURES WARM...WILL SEE A
TRANSITION FROM ALL SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AS A WARM NOSE DEVELOPS
NEAR H75. WARMING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN
THIS REGIME WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH TAKING PLACE FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TIME HEIGHT AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW SATURATION DECREASING TO ONLY
ENCOMPASS LOWER LEVELS INTO THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY LEADING TO MORE
OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT...THUS THE EXPECTED LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
AFTER RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY-MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN...IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND OVERCAST SKIES
AS THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL DOMINATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

GIVEN THE LIGHT AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WILL
FOREGO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AND HIGHLIGHT THE
THREAT OF LIGHT ICING AND ADDITIONAL SNOW IN THE HWO AND A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

LONG TERM...
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE FIRST WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ATOP THE SHALLOW COLD
AIRMASS...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD...MAINLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.
THE TEMP FORECAST ON SUNDAY LOOKS PRETTY TRICKY DUE TO TIMING AND
EXTENT OF PARTIAL CLEARING DURING THE DAY...AND THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD AIR SURGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW A PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN HIGH
TEMPS...FROM 40S NORTHEAST TO LOW 60S SOUTHWEST.

MEANWHILE...OFF TO OUR WEST...AN UPPER LOW WILL BE DIGGING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE SW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RENEW THE
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASE THE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.
COLD NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS MAY SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ENOUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE ALL
LIQUID DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PRECIP AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MONDAY AND WE EXPECT THE
REMAINING COLD AIR TO QUICKLY ERODE IN THE FACE OF INCREASING
SWERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY MILD TEMPS BY TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S AND 60S. DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SHOVE PRECIP CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST DESPITE A SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE TAP CONTINUING ALOFT. WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE
HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE GOES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SW-NE
ORIENTED AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE COULD HOLD UP ACROSS SOME OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN...AND POSSIBLY T-STORMS
GOING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THE LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A POSITIVE
TILT TO THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE TROUGH/S PASSAGE. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE
COUPLED LIFT MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIP. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY
FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        11  38  31  50 /  40  20  10  10
TULIA         11  34  30  52 /  40  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     13  35  30  55 /  40  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     13  40  34  64 /  30  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       13  37  33  59 /  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   16  43  34  68 /  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    15  41  34  64 /  30  30  10  10
CHILDRESS     15  32  29  49 /  40  40  30  20
SPUR          15  33  32  56 /  40  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     18  35  33  60 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/99

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