Area Forecast Discussion
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212
FXUS64 KLUB 290801
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
301 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT BUT RELATIVELY
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. LIFT/MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DISPLACED
WELL TO OUR NORTH AS IT MAINTAINS AN EASTWARD TRAJECTORY...BUT IT
WILL DELIVER A COLD FRONT TO WEST TEXAS TODAY. AS OF 07Z...THE COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND
IT WILL CONTINUE MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND SHOULD ENTER
THE NORTHWEST ZONES AROUND 14Z. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...PERHAPS NOT EXITING THE
FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH 30+ KT JET AT 850 MB WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN GUSTY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON BEHIND THE
FRONT...PEAKING FROM AROUND MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD OCCASIONAL FLIRT WITH LOW-END WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND SPOTTY
AND NO ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY PLANNED.

THE FRONT WILL BRING MODEST COOLING WITH IT...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS/. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT. A FEW THIN/HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL THICKEN/LOWER SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. EVEN
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
40S...WITH A FEW 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWEST ZONES.

.LONG TERM...
LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO FLOW NWWD BACK INTO WTX ON THE LLJ
MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWER AND
T-STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER IN THE NM HIGHLANDS
AS A SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS REGION. IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS MONDAY
EVENING. THE NAM SUGGESTS IT COULD MAKE IT TO THE STATE
LINE...BUT IT MAY BE OVER-ZEALOUS WITH THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF NW MX INTO SW TX ON
TUESDAY...TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN THE NAM AND ECMWF THAN THE GFS.
THE GFS KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY AS THE BEST LIFT
REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND THE DEEPER MOISTER SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
THE NAM...SREF AND ECMWF ARE MORE BULLISH ON PRECIP CHANCES. IT IS
DIFFICULT TO ADJUST TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER AT THIS
POINT SINCE THE STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ABOUT 500 MILES OFF THE
COAST OF BAJA. BLENDED GUIDANCE POPS RANGE FROM ABOUT 20 PERCENT
IN THE NW TO 30 PERCENT IN THE SE...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE FOR NOW. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE TO BE TAPPED BY ANY MOIST CONVECTION. POSSIBLE LOW
STRATUS IN THE MORNING AND THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. IF SURFACE TEMPS CAN WARM INTO THE 80S AND THE MORE
ROBUST SURFACE DEWPOINTS VERIFY...WE COULD SEE CAPES IN THE RANGE
OF 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES...WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER T-STORM CELLS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR.

AFTER THAT WAVE PASSES...WE EXPECT A DRY...BREEZY AND WARM PERIOD
AS SWIFT WESTERLY FLOW SPREADS EAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS DOWNSTREAM
OF A UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...EXPOUNDED UPON BELOW. AS
IT LOOKS NOW...WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN SWEEPING THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THU AND FRIDAY...AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON SATURDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH INTERCEPTING RETURNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS NM
AND WTX...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THIS
TRANSITION AND THUS IS WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS
MORNING...EXITING THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND RELATIVELY HUMIDITIES FALLING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT...IT WILL
CREATE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING AND HUMIDITIES SLOWLY IMPROVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.

A PERIOD OF DEEP...DRY...WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS AREA LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPROCK BOTH
AFTERNOONS...AND POSSIBLY INTO ADJACENT PORTION OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO
DECISIVELY APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT ANY TREND TOWARD HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        74  38  73  45 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         74  39  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     76  40  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     80  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       80  42  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  43  73  51 /   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    83  44  73  52 /   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     82  45  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          84  46  74  55 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  49  76  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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