Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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304
FXUS64 KLUB 091127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. S-SW WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY
MORE SO AT KCDS. A 40 TO 50 KT SWERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT...HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
KEEP LLWS BELOW MENTION IN THE TAF. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO
INCREASE EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED APR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...
DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS TODAY WITH
A MINOR PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALLOWING FOR SOME DEEPENING OF A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WTX AND ERN NM. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED AND WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY ATMOSPHERE...TEMPS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE 80S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 80S FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS. S-SW BREEZES AT THE SFC THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE W-SW
AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC TROUGH MIGRATES EAST ACROSS
THE CAPROCK...THEN RETURN BACK TO THE S-SW THIS EVENING. IT WILL BE
MILD OVERNIGHT AS THE WIND WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND LOWS
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...
AN UNEVENTFUL WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE UNTIL SUNDAY. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THIS WAVE WILL NOT DO MUCH EXCEPT BRING IN SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND BEGIN TO DRAW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. DEEP
MIXING AND DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE 90 AS SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS STILL IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AS
IT REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL. A CLOSED LOW MOVING ON SHORE
ON SATURDAY WILL GREATLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
WEST TEXAS. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION AS WELL. ALSO AS SEEN PREVIOUSLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF RUN. MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO A WINDY DAY.
A FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AGAIN BRINGING
STRONG WINDS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER. HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
SHOT AT A FREEZE ON MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON DEPICTING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -2C.

FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 15
PERCENT FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE SE
ROLLING PLAINS....WITH SUB 10 PERCENT RH ACROSS THE CAPROCK. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW-END OF RED FLAG CRITERIA...AS A
MODEST 20-30 KT 700MB MAX PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FOUND ACROSS THE FAR SRN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...TAPERING OFF GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LINGERING UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL MEET THE RED
FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS...WE HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE FA ASIDE
FROM STONEWALL COUNTY. WITH RAINFALL GENERALLY LACKING...DELAYING
GREEN-UP...THE FUELS WILL REMAIN VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID FIRE
SPREAD WITH THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.

BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY AIR SPREADING TO THE SURFACE.
FURTHERMORE...TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AT FIVE
PERCENT OR LESS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AGAIN BRING
STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  44  88  45  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         85  48  89  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  49  90  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     86  49  90  50  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  53  91  51  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   85  50  90  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    86  50  91  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  55  94  54  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          86  52  93  54  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     87  55  94  57  87 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>043.

&&

$$

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