Area Forecast Discussion
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783
FXUS64 KLUB 250912
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
412 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
MID LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST WEST OF KLBB EARLY THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST TO NEAR EUNICE-JAL BY
00Z. DEFORMATION MAXIMUM ALSO NEAR LUBBOCK SHOULD SHIFT CLOSER TO
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOLID CHANCE LEVELS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES TODAY...THEN LIMITED CLOSER TO THE NEW MEXICO BOUNDARY THIS
EVENING. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS WHILE INSTABILITY LEVELS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSE TO 500 TO
1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM...THOUGH AS HIGH AS 1500 JOULES COULD DEVELOP
WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSOLATION. WE DO NOT EXPECT QUITE THE LEVEL
OF STORM INTENSITY THAT RESULTED WEDNESDAY THOUGH BELIEVE THE RICH
MOISTURE COULD STILL YIELD A FEW DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS MINOR
FLOODING POTENTIAL. WE ALSO WE DO NOT NECESSARILY THINK THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING GUN AS YESTERDAY...
SHOULD BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST. BUYING INTO SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES WESTERN ZONES GIVEN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS THOUGH THIS
IS DIFFICULT TO READ AS CURRENT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM LIKELY TO
CONTINUE DOWNWARD PULSE THIS MORNING BEFORE FLARING BACK UP THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ROLLING PLAINS TODAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS MAY IMPROVE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
THOUGH DO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
SLUGGISH UPPER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ATTEMPT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ROLLING PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS-PECOS...HELPING TO USHER UPPER 50/NEAR 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
BACK INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL
LOBE OF ENERGY SERVING AS THE FOCUS FOR LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
NEAR ASPERMONT SHOW CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH
NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS...BUT
RECENT TRENDS POINT TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF
LOW-TOPPED STORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY...CREATING SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOCALLY AS THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW EJECTS EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THIS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE WEEKEND DRY BEFORE THE WEST COAST
LOW BARRELS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT TAKES ON A POSITIVE
TILT. RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW
EXTENDING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO EMBED WEST TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE TROUGH REACHING SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS ALONG WITH DRYLINE FORMATION IN VICINITY OF
THE REGION. THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE REMAIN A
BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
STORMS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY CORRESPONDING WITH THE TIME OF
MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS AND THE MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR THE
DRYLINE MOVING INTO/THROUGH THE AREA.

THE DEGREE OF CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MID-LATE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH/LOW SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS. VERY WELL COULD SEE EXTENDED STORM
CHANCES WITH A SLOSHING DRYLINE AND POSSIBLE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH BY WEEK/S END.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  53  76  55  77 /  30  20  10  10  10
TULIA         78  53  77  56  78 /  30  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     78  53  77  56  78 /  40  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     77  55  76  57  78 /  40  20  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       78  55  76  57  78 /  40  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   78  57  76  59  78 /  40  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  57  77  59  78 /  40  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  58  82  61  82 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          82  58  79  61  81 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     83  60  82  62  83 /  20  10  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/31

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