Area Forecast Discussion
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843
FXUS64 KLUB 241730
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LOW OVER AZ LATE THIS MORNING WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. FORCING FOR PRECIP WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR STRONG
UPPER JET STREAK EJECTING AHEAD OF THE LOW...IE PRECIP SHOULD STAY
TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF ALL THREE TERMINALS. ONLY EFFECT AT EACH
SITE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BY EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW CEILINGS ARE CLEARING OUT ACROSS THE AREA AND WE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND THERE
IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WED MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY TODAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH
THE AREA BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS. MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CROSSES
OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND JUST A HINT OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE KEPT
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA A FAIRLY CONSTANT LOW 20S OVERNIGHT...IN FACT
THE CURRENT TEMP OF 23F AT LUBBOCK IS A DEGREE WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY/S HIGH! THERE IS ALSO SOME VERY LIGHT FOG REPORTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH PLAINS BUT WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY MAJOR CONCERNS WITH
LOW VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEST TO
EAST BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND WEST
TEXAS...CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO SW NM. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OVER
UTAH AND NRN AZ. THIS LOW WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD TODAY AND PASS
OVER WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO IT/S APPROACH...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTIAL CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S TODAY.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE THIS
EVENING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING THAT WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSES OVERHEAD AND BRINGS A PERIOD OF MODERATE LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT. THERE ARE SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE LIFT...THE NAM INDICATES A CONSOLIDATED LOW WITH
STRONG LIFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST THE LOW WILL BE SPLIT INTO TWO CORES...DIFFUSING THE LIFT
AND GIVING THE SRN LOBE A BETTER MOISTURE FETCH. IN THIS CASE...WE
THINK THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SRN-MOST
COUNTIES OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...IN THE VICINITY
OF THE 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. A SEPARATE AREA OF SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE FOUND UNDERNEATH THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NM INTO EASTERN NM IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN
PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING. WE ARE
UNCERTAIN IF THESE SHOWERS WILL SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND WILL KEEP POP MENTION OUT OF THE NRN ZONES FOR
NOW. BACK TO THE SOUTH...IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT WILL THEN COOL
QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. A
WARM NOSE IN THE SOUNDINGS COULD SUPPORT SOME FREEZING RAIN AS
WELL. THE FORECAST MOISTURE PROFILE NEVER SHOWS DEEP
SATURATION...AND WE EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT...ALTHOUGH ME MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AT
THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY ADVISORIES...BUT SOME ROADS COULD
BECOME SLICK OVERNIGHT ACROSS THOSE AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 20S...LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
PLENTY TO CONSIDER IN THE EXTENDED WITH RELATIVELY FAST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE REGION...A COUPLE MORE INTRUSIONS OF COLD AIR...AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

EARLY ON...THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION SHOULD ENJOY ONE RELATIVELY WARM
DAY BEHIND TONIGHT/S DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. DOWNSLOPING
BREEZES AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION SHOULD HELP LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS
WARM UP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING
DOWN THE ROCKIES WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING THE
RISK FOR A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNTS AND
EASTWARD COVERAGE. ATTM WE ARE ONLY ADVERTISING A DUSTING OF SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AFTER THE RELATIVELY WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO THE 40 DEGREE MARK...WITH
LOCATIONS AROUND FRIONA ONLY TOPPING OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.
THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES BY EARLY FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS...PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY LIKELY LINGER IN
THE 20S FOR MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...ATTENTION WILL TURN TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
EARLY FRIDAY AND PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WAVE WILL
INITIALLY BE BATTLING THE DRY LOW-LEVELS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME IT...WITH THE LATEST NWP SUGGESTING ABOUT ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF LIQUID BEING SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE COLD
TEMPERATURES...THIS COULD SUPPORT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

A LARGE UPPER LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING US TO A
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW OVERRUNNING THE COOL
AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD KEEP LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY
ERODES AND TEMPERATURES WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND. THIS WARM UP TOO MAY BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT
PROVIDE AS BIG OF A CHILL AS THE PRIOR FRONT. IN ADDITION...WHAT
REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN LOW IS PROGGED TO BEGIN APPROACHING...
PROVIDING RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  21  52  23 /  10  10   0  30
TULIA         43  22  54  25 /   0  10   0  20
PLAINVIEW     44  24  57  27 /   0  10   0  20
LEVELLAND     44  26  62  29 /   0  10   0  10
LUBBOCK       44  26  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   43  27  62  30 /   0  20   0  10
BROWNFIELD    43  27  63  30 /   0  10   0  10
CHILDRESS     45  27  57  27 /   0  10   0  10
SPUR          44  27  63  29 /   0  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     43  29  62  31 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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