Area Forecast Discussion
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878
FXUS64 KLUB 152101
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
401 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...
IT HAS BEEN A COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY THANKS TO LAST NIGHT/S
FRONT. 3 PM TEMPS WERE STILL IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS...BUT HAD
WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SPLNS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING THOUGH...AND WITH SOME BETTER
HEATING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WE COULD STILL SEE SOME SHOWER AND
TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOP. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS SHOULD BE FOUND
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING. ACROSS OUR WRN
ZONES...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHICH COULD IN TURN LEAD TO SOME MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE
THINKING IS THAT THIS THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AND PRETTY SHORT-LIVED
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...THE LOW-LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER WITH A
WEAK WAA PATTERN DEVELOPING. WITH DEEP MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE
AREA...THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVERNIGHT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A TSTM COMPLEX
MOVING SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES CLIPPING OUR NE ZONES...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER NORTH...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS
THAT AREA. HOWEVER WE WILL KEEP A MODERATE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
GOING AREA-WIDE.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL RETREAT/WASH OUT WITH MOIST SRLY
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IF
THERE IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY A MCS MOVING ACROSS IN WRN
THAT OKLA. SUCH A BOUNDARY COULD SET UP ACROSS THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE PER THE 12 UTC RUN OF THE TTU-WRF AND BE A FOCUS FOR
CI...BUT THIS OCCURRENCE AND LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. IN THE ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY...THE FORCING FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PRETTY NEBULOUS. WARMER
TEMPS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HIGHER CAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAIN COVERAGE/THICKNESS OF CLOUD COVER MAY PROVE TO BE A
COMPLICATING FACTOR. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
IMPROVE LATE IN THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...BUT THIS WON/T BE FULLY FELT UNTIL
LATER WED EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A
LITTLE BIT DURING THE DAY WED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IF
THERE HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIVE HEATING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE BEST COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL OVERLAP. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
IN THE VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IF IT IS REALIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE AXIS OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.  AS
THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE TOWARDS THE SSE...AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT FORCING FROM BOTH THE UPPER WAVE AND COLD FRONT IS
LIKELY TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF NE NM AND FAR NW TX...WHICH IS THEN LIKELY TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MOST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND LATER THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.  WHILE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING DURING THE EARLY EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED WILL QUICKLY GROW
UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS COMPLEXES...AND OVERTAKE WHATEVER
ISOLATED STORMS STILL REMAIN.  WHILE THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
GIVEN DISCREPANCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS /NAM...FAST AND FARTHER NORTH
VS. GFS SLOW AND FARTHER SOUTH/ IT APPEARS THAT THE REGION MOST
LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.  GIVEN VERY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENTLY FAST PROPAGATION SPEEDS MAY
PREVENT WIDESPREAD TOTALS EXCEED TWO INCHES.  THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE EVENT THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON PRODUCES LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN IN THE SAME AREAS.  IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL GIVEN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE MCS.

THINGS WILL THEN LIKELY BEGIN TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER WAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN ALOFT.  GIVEN
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS/EMCWF SOLUTIONS...SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THURSDAY...WITH PERHAPS EVEN REDEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS
IF THIS SLOWING TREND CONTINUES.  BEYOND THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND AFTER A RELATIVELY COOL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  NOT ALL HOPE IS
LOST...HOWEVER...AS THE CORE OF THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY TO REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST AND WITH TIME EXPAND TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL
MOST LIKELY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO FAR ABOVE
NORMAL...AND ALSO MAINTAINS NORTHWEST FLOW AND ALLOWS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW IMPULSES IN THE UPPER FLOW TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA.  AND...GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE WILL QUICKLY REGAIN OUR LOST
MOISTURE DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW...IT WONT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION TO SEE PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  90  62  76  60 /  40  40  70  20  20
TULIA         62  86  64  75  59 /  40  50  70  30  10
PLAINVIEW     65  87  66  75  59 /  40  40  60  30  10
LEVELLAND     66  90  67  77  61 /  40  30  50  20  20
LUBBOCK       68  89  69  77  62 /  40  30  60  30  10
DENVER CITY   65  90  67  87  63 /  40  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  89  67  82  62 /  40  20  50  30  20
CHILDRESS     65  88  69  76  64 /  40  50  70  40  10
SPUR          67  89  69  80  63 /  30  30  60  30  10
ASPERMONT     68  91  73  81  66 /  20  30  60  40  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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