Area Forecast Discussion
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300
FXUS64 KLUB 171754
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1254 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS WILL THIN BRIEFLY NEAR AND WEST OF KLBB EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING RAPID SURFACE WARMING...WHICH THEN WILL LEAD
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ERUPTION BY MIDDAY AS SHOWN BY SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS. ALREADY SEEING TSRA DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTH OF
CLOVIS. THIS VALIDATES A TEMPO -TSRA GROUP FOR KLBB LATER TODAY.
LIFT SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO MORE GENERAL
RAIN. MOST SOLUTIONS STILL KEEP BULK OF ACTIVITY AWAY FROM
KCDS...THOUGH CERTAINLY EXPECT SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KCDS AT SOME
POINT AS THIS WET REGIME OVERTAKES AREAS JUST TO THE WEST. WITH
SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS...KLBB VERY WELL WILL HAVE CEILINGS IN THE
MVFR RANGE WITH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS...AND ALSO LATER TONIGHT AS THE
COOLER RAIN PREVAILS. LIGHT FOG ALSO GOOD POSSIBILITY AT KLBB.
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS HOWEVER WILL NOT BE EXPLICITLY FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

AVIATION...
COPIOUS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD FROM T.C. ODILE
ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...KLBB IS
EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF -RA THOUGH FIELD SHOULD REMAIN MVFR OR
ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY SW OF KLBB AND WE COULD SEE SOME OF THESE MOVE INTO THE
TERMINAL AREA. KCDS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...
OUR WEATHER WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ODILE WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING.  BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONE THROUGH TEXAS THENCE ALONG THE GULF
COAST.  NWP SUGGESTS THAT THE LIGHT ACTIVITY ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD WANE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH FOCUSED MORE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWFA.  IN FACT...THE NERN ZONES MAY STAY
DRY.  THAT SAID...PWAT VALUES ARE PEAKING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES
AND IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO GET AT LEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION GOING WITH THESE CONDITIONS.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP
THE MENTION GOING NORTHEAST THROUGH WILL KEEP THE QPF MORE OR LESS
SILENT WHILE INCREASING POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS FAIRLY MILD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM...
AN UA RIDGE ACROSS FAR SWRN TEXAS/NERN OLD MEXICO IS AIDING IN
TRANSLATING TROPICAL STORM ODILE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND PROGGED TO CONTINUE THIS NEWRD
TREK ACROSS THE DESERT SW THROUGH LATE WEEK. AS SUCH...ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM ODILE
AND ALSO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED PWATS
RANGING BETWEEN 1.60-1.90 INCHES. MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT ODILE
EVOLVING TO LINGERING REMNANTS/A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL LIFT
NNE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION COMMENCING
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
ON THE RISE AND WHEN COUPLED WITH AN ALREADY PRIMED MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...WITH MODERATE RAINFALL BEING A POSSIBILITY.
AS WAS SEEN TODAY...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WILL BE INITIALLY FAVORED TOMORROW...WITH
COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA FRIDAY...DUE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE UA DISTURBANCE.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE
NAM IS THE OUTLIER SOLUTION...AS IT IS FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE UA
DISTURBANCE...WHICH LEADS TO UL SUPPORT LACKING A BIT. LONG TERM
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE
THEREFORE TRENDED THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TOWARDS THE LATTER SOLUTIONS
WHICH REFLECT THE FOLLOWING: /1/ INCREASED POPS ON THE CAPROCK TO
LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY THUS TYING IN ON THE START OF THE UA
DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.../2/ THE DISTURBANCE WILL
EXIT THE REGION SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING...HOWEVER A SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA...AND HENCE PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.

WITH AN UA RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...DRYER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM ALOFT...AS EXHIBITED BY
TOP-DOWN DRYING PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS
TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS FOCUS WILL TURN TO YET ANOTHER UA DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP BY MID-WEEK. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH IN THIS
REGARD AS OPPOSED TO THE DRYER ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL HOLD OFF ON
INSERTING MENTIONABLE POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT ATTM...AND AWAIT MODEL
RUN CONSISTENCY.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S WHICH IS SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  78  60  77  60 /  40  60  50  60  60
TULIA         62  81  62  80  62 /  30  40  40  60  60
PLAINVIEW     63  80  62  80  63 /  50  60  40  60  60
LEVELLAND     63  77  62  78  63 /  60  60  50  60  60
LUBBOCK       64  79  65  79  65 /  60  60  50  60  50
DENVER CITY   64  76  63  80  64 /  60  60  50  60  60
BROWNFIELD    64  78  63  79  64 /  60  60  50  60  60
CHILDRESS     66  86  66  81  66 /  20  40  20  50  50
SPUR          66  82  65  81  65 /  60  60  40  50  50
ASPERMONT     68  84  68  84  68 /  60  60  40  50  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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