Area Forecast Discussion
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822
FXUS64 KLUB 020838
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT IS BARRELING SOUTH TOWARD THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH TUCUMCARI AND
DALHART. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS WERE
OBSERVED ALONG AND THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH. THE FRONT WILL ENTER OUR NW COUNTIES AROUND 5 AM...AND CLEAR
OUR SE COUNTIES AROUND 10 AM OR SO. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AFTER
SUNRISE AND WE/LL SEE BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS MOST OF THE MORNING.
GENERALLY...GUSTS SHOULD PEAK AROUND 35 MPH...BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH ACROSS THE FAR SRN PANHANDLE AND NRN SPLNS. THE
WIND WILL COME DOWN GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING. COOL AND DRIER
AIR WILL SPILL SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE 70S OUTSIDE OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHARP MID-LVL TROUGH CROSSING THE SRN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. AS IT
TRAVERSES THE PANHANDLES...WE WILL SEE SOME CLOUDINESS SLIDE ACROSS
OUR NRN ZONES. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR SRN TEXAS
PANHANDLE MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW SPRINKLES
AREN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THIS AREA BUT MOISTURE IS IN A SHALLOW
LAYER AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER MUCH RICHER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE FRONT IS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...DRY AIR...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND WRN
ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY IN THE LONG TERM. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR FROM THE SURFACE RIDGE ON FRIDAY WILL
KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
COOL MORNING ON SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S AREA WIDE WITH POSSIBLE 30S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AFTER SATURDAY UNDER RISING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT LIKELY EVEN BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE EAST PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO
BE STRUGGLING ON HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ANY IMPACTS ARE LIKELY BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  43  68  41  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
TULIA         72  42  69  42  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  44  70  43  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     72  43  71  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  46  71  44  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   75  45  72  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  46  73  46  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     79  50  74  47  81 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPUR          78  49  74  47  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     83  53  77  49  81 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01

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