Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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857
FXUS64 KLUB 130444
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS A PLETHORA OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG WITH A
COOL AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. KCDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR
CATEGORY WHILE KLBB HAS SEEN VFR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WILL
LIKELY RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
ULTIMATELY RETURN TO KLBB BY EARLY-MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
MORNING EVIDENT BY STRONG PRESSURE RISES SPREADING INTO THE AREA.
THIS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH OF A DIRECTIONAL
CHANGE WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WAS CAUSING THE PRECIPITATION TO WANE
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW FRONTOGENESIS WAS STILL
SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS ALSO
SEEN IN THE FORM OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE
ALTHOUGH THIS WAS WEAK AS WELL. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
THIS EVENING BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SEE A LITTLE DROP INTO TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND WARMING ON THE CLOUD TOPS. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL STAY DEEP WITH VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3.3 TO 3.6KM
COMBINED WITH NEARLY SATURATED SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO MODERATE RAIN UNDER SHALLOW CONVECTION
WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE. MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP THROUGH NEW MEXICO MAY BE ABLE TO ACT ON THE SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE TO CREATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE A DOWN DAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TOMORROW AS SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY WIND HELPS TO MODERATE THE
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. BY MONDAY...MODELS CREEP
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FRONT MAKING A RUN TOWARDS THE AREA. ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT AND HAS IT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS STALL IT OUT
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION AS 12Z MODELS KEEP SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION. SURFACE FRONT COULD ACT AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH PRECLUDES
CHANGING POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME. ALSO LEFT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST UNCHANGED AS PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DIURNAL RANGE IN CHECK.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  43  65  52  76 /  80  20  10  10  10
TULIA         58  45  64  53  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     59  45  64  54  77 /  80  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  46  64  55  77 /  90  40  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       62  46  64  56  77 /  90  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  47  64  56  76 / 100  50  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  47  64  57  77 /  90  40  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     62  48  67  57  81 /  70  20  10  10  10
SPUR          65  49  66  57  79 /  80  30  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     68  51  68  59  81 /  60  40  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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