Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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516
FXUS64 KLUB 231739
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
-TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL FROM 20 UTC TO 03
UTC...WHICH COULD BRING SHORT DURATION REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND
CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. ALSO...SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY WED MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS ATTM. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK /10 PCT/ OF MVFR BR AT EITHER TERMINAL THROUGH 15Z. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING A 20 PCT OF TSRA WILL EXIST AT BOTH KLBB AND
KCDS.  THERE ALSO EXIST SOME RISK OF FG WEDNESDAY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED NEAR 32N115W WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A
NE/SW ORIENTATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
DAKOTA OPENS LEAVING A TROUGH AXIS BACK TOWARD WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL
HELP OVERSPREAD SOME WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AS EVIDENCED BY
Q-VECTOR ANALYSIS THROUGH 12Z WED.

AT THE SURFACE...MOIST ADVECTION FROM OUR SOUTH BRINGS JUICY NEAR
SFC AIR BACK INTO OUR AREA AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING.  THIS IS BEST
VISUALIZED IN THE HRRR BUT ALSO EVIDENT IN THE NAM.  GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF STANDING WATER TO OUR SOUTH...SUSPECT THAT THE DEWPOINTS
MAY BE A BIT HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED.  THIS TYPE OF WEAKLY
FORCED SCENARIO USUALLY IS HANDLED BEST BY EXAMINING THE BEST SFC
THETA-E FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT.  THIS IS A RATHER BROAD AREA COVERING
ALMOST THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PARMER COUNTY
AND THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.  FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A LONG/SKINNY
CAPE SITUATION ABOVE ABOUT 750MB.  BEST SURFACE DIVERGENCE FIELDS
LOOK TO REMAIN S OF THE AREA FROM NEAR ASPERMONT BACK TOWARD
ODESSA.  ALL IN ALL...NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT ACROSS OUR AREA TO
IDENTIFY PREFERRED AREAS OF CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED
THETA-E MAX.  TURNING TO THE MODEL PARAMETRIZED PRECIPITATION
ESTIMATES...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT POPS OUT.  WILL THEREFORE MAKE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC TO CHC WITH BETTER POPS SOUTH CENTRAL THENCE
DIMINISHING TOWARD THE E/W/N.  PWAT WILL BE A FAIR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
SO SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  FCST INSTABILITY WILL PERMIT
A FEW STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH 1-2 KJ/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH.  1-6KM
SHEAR IS BEST ACROSS THE NORTH.  SUSPECT THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING
SOME MODERATE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT AND SO WILL HIGHLIGHT THAT POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.  THE
BULK OF ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF IN THE EVENING THOUGH SOME
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
LAST TWO WEEKS.

LONG TERM...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL ELONGATE AND STRETCH BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...POTENTIALLY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW SOMEWHERE IN
VICINITY OF THE PERMIAN BASIN. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP AN UPPER
RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AS IT STRETCHES FROM BAJA INTO MANITOBA.
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ALONG WITH THIS FORCING WILL KEEP STORM
CHANCES IN PLAY FOR ALL LOCALES WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE AS CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG. CHANCES
BEGIN TO SHIFT WEST THURSDAY WITH DRY AIR INTRUDING FROM THE EAST.
THIS WILL SHUTDOWN PROSPECTS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AS PWATS TAKE A NOTICEABLE PLUMMET TO WELL BELOW ONE INCH.

AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OFFSHORE OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO
THE GREAT BASIN FOR THE WEEKEND...SHOVING THE CUTOFF LOW/TROUGHINESS
EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. BACKING FLOW WILL OCCUR WITH THIS
TRANSITION OF UPPER FEATURES...BUT MOISTURE RECOVERY AND TIMING
REMAIN A LARGE UNCERTAINTY BY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES SILENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD SLIDE
OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY RESIDING LOW. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST...MAY SEE
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURN ALOFT WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS...BUT SEE NOWHERE CLOSE TO A CLEAR ENOUGH SIGNAL TO INSERT
MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

MOIST SOIL AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S/LOW 80S ON THE CAPROCK WITH 80S IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S/60S WEST OF THE ESCARPMENT AND 60S EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  80  58  78  57 /  10  30  30  20  20
TULIA         61  81  59  80  58 /  20  30  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     62  80  59  79  57 /  20  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     62  80  60  78  58 /  20  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       63  80  60  79  58 /  20  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   61  80  61  77  58 /  20  30  30  20  10
BROWNFIELD    62  80  61  79  58 /  20  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     66  85  62  84  61 /  20  20  20  20  10
SPUR          64  83  61  81  59 /  20  30  20  20  10
ASPERMONT     65  85  62  83  61 /  20  20  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33

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