Area Forecast Discussion
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410
FXUS64 KLUB 301723
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA
TO DEVELOP NEAR KCDS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AOA 15-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-22 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES. LIGHT VFR/MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL IS BECOMING
LESS INFLUENTIAL GIVEN DRIER GROUNDS. WILL HOLD OFF INSERTING A
MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
IT IS ANOTHER MILD AND MOIST START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 08Z. THE LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DO RAISE
EYEBROWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. HOWEVER...UP TO THIS POINT SATELLITE AND OBS CONFIRM CLEAR
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT KPVW HAS RECENTLY DROPPED TO
5SM. WE COULD YET SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT VEERING SURFACE FLOW AND DRIER GROUND
/IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/ SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL.

ALOFT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY UPSTREAM OF
YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS MINOR DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ON A
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TREK...BRUSHING BY OUR FAR NORTHERN AND AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WEAKNESS COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP A NOTCH FROM
YESTERDAY /AROUND 30 KNOTS/ WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK AND PROGGED SBCAPE IS
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG...SO OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED. STILL...A BRIEF STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...WITH THE PANHANDLE MOST FAVORED...THOUGH A LITTLE
ACTIVITY COULD LEAK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A HOT ONE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION
PROPELLING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW WITH RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS HELPING TO HOLD LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS KS...DEEPENING A SFC TROUGH AND
SRLY BREEZES ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HEATING ACROSS NW TX COULD
RESULT IN ISOLD TSTMS BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP IN THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE...BUT THE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR
AREA. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON LABOR DAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND COULD NEAR OUR NRN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY. IF IT DOES SO
IT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT ALOFT...BUT
THE FRONT MAY YET HOLD UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE QPF SIGNAL IS VERY
WEAK IN THE GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIER SW MID-LVL
FLOW DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY EASE DOWN. TUESDAY MAY ALSO SEE THE LAST GASP OF /WEAK/
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF. THIS
IS LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A REMNANT FOCUS FROM THE MONDAY/S FRONT
WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO ADD POPS AT THIS POINT. BEYOND TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...SLOWLY
GIVING WAY ON IT/S WRN FLANK AFTER MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY
MILD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MONSOON REGIME
RETURNING TO NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  96  64  95  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  97  66  96  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  96  66  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  97  68  97  69 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  96  68  98  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  68  99  70 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  99  72  99  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  97  70  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  75 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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