Area Forecast Discussion
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255
FXUS64 KLUB 252147
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
347 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY SEWD OVER COLORADO AS OF MID-
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT NOTED AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NERN NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND OBS WITH A RAPIDLY INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THIS
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
FCST AREA BY MID EVENING AIDED BY SOME MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL BE MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
INTO THE FCST AREA. DYNAMIC LIFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD MID-MORNING WITH SNOW COMING TO AN END BY
NOON. AGREE WITH MODELS IN THAT THE SNOW-PRONE AREAS OF THE NWRN
FCST AREA STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 1 TO MAYBE 2 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH THIS EVENT AND WILL HOIST A WINTER WX ADVISORY LATE THIS
EVENING TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN
PRECIP TO THE SOUTH...A LITTLE LESS TO THE EAST.

COLD...CLOUDY AND BLUSTERY DAY IN STORE THURSDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY A
LITTLE COOLER THAN MODELS AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTATION
OF THICK CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. LIKELY PRECIP-FREE DURING THE
AFTN IN LULL BETWEEN TONIGHTS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE THAT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...
NEXT UPPER IMPULSE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR WESTERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS COME THURSDAY
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL FROM THE
FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT VERY AMPLIFIED...THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE
SUPPORT OF A 100+ KNOT POLAR JET. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ALONG WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY. SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS SHOULD PUSH AROUND 15:1 WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FIRMLY
IN PLACE AND STOUT OMEGA PROFILES STRETCHING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. AREAS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...TOPPING OUT IN THE 3-4 INCH RANGE FROM
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK TO
STILL MAINLY RESIDE IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM
MOVES EAST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL
ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 20S
UNDERNEATH OVERCAST SKIES. BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS FRIDAY MORNING TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...BUT THE BRUNT OF THIS ONE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME...PERHAPS LENDING TO ANOTHER
DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING GIVEN THE
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-MID LEVEL SATURATION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CARVING OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD BAJA. THIS REGIME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ATOP A COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SNOW SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM NOSE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS BEFORE WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN ENCROACH FROM THE NORTH BY LATER
SUNDAY...KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE OFFING WITH PHASE
DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE. STILL
EXPECTING A WARMUP INTO THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH DURING
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT IN
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND ON HOW FAST OR IF THE COLD AIR CAN RETREAT NORTH THUS PLACING
WEST TEXAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY IN REGARDS TO THUNDER
CHANCES. NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH AND USHERS IN ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  27  10  21 /  90  30  80  50
TULIA         23  29  12  20 /  80  20  70  70
PLAINVIEW     25  30  13  21 /  70  20  60  60
LEVELLAND     26  32  14  25 /  60  20  50  50
LUBBOCK       26  32  13  24 /  60  20  50  60
DENVER CITY   29  34  17  26 /  10  20  40  40
BROWNFIELD    29  34  16  25 /  20  20  40  40
CHILDRESS     27  33  15  23 /  20  10  40  80
SPUR          27  34  16  24 /  30  20  30  60
ASPERMONT     29  35  20  27 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>023-027-028.

&&

$$

07/31

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