Area Forecast Discussion
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725
FXUS64 KLUB 181721
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1121 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 14-20 KTS AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. IN GENERALLY...THE SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED AT 15-22 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND
PERSIST UNTIL AOA SUNSET. THEREAFTER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW
12 KTS AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WHILST VEERING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE SKC AND
FEW VFR DECKS WILL PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MILD AND BREEZY TO WINDY DAY WILL CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND...
THOUGH TODAY THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY TAKEN HOLD OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE. THESE
WINDS WILL INTENSIFY LATER THIS MORNING AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH
AND ROLLING PLAINS...WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...WINDS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 15-25 MPH
RANGE. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PROVIDE A MILD WINTER DAY...WITH HIGHS WELL
INTO THE 60S...WITH EVEN LOWER 70S A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMTH...WIND AND DRY WEATHER WILL
ALSO RAISE THE FIRE DANGER /SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS/.

THE WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF THIS EVENING...THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH SAGS INTO
THE REGION. THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ON THE CAPROCK TO MID/UPPER
30S AT MANY SPOTS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION FOR THE
MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES PERSIST
FOR OUR AREA.

THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO START OUT DRY AND MILD WITH TEMPS ON MLK
DAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AS A RESULT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL DROP BACK
TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND 60 SOUTH...AND NRLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY IN
THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A STRONGLY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL
SLIDE SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN REGIONS INTO
THE 4-CORNERS AND DESERT SW. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. IN GENERAL...THE
PRIMARY FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED TO OUR
SOUTH AS THE TROUGH SAGS INTO NRN MEXICO ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A SECONDARY AREA OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN NM AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WESTERN TX
PANHANDLE LATE WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SMALL SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME...THIS MAY GENERATE SOME LIFT FARTHER NORTH. THE EXACT
TIMING AND TRACKS OF THESE FEATURES ARE STILL IN FLUX AND POPS ARE
LIMITED TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH WE BUMPED THEM UP TO NEAR 40 PERCENT IN OUR SRN
ZONES. GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT WARMER...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 40S AND NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN THE 20S
AND 30S. THUS WE WILL INDICATE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR NOW WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING QUITE LIMITED. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND WE EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO
END BY LATE THURSDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WARMER TEMPS
ARRIVING FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT.

FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY...MILD AND DRY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST WINDS /SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH AT THE 20 FT LEVEL/ WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. THESE WINDS WILL BE PAIRED WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND RH VALUES FALLING
TO 10-17 PERCENT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST A RED FLAG WARNING
FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF THE CWA...EXCLUDING THE FAR
WESTERN COLUMN WHERE WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER AND HUMIDITIES A
TOUCH HIGHER. TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE RED FLAG WARNING...WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE LOWER...BUT THE MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL STILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AND A
FIRE DANGER WILL BE ISSUED. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  28  63  34  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         67  29  65  33  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     67  31  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     66  31  67  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       67  32  67  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   66  31  68  34  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    66  30  66  33  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     73  37  70  36  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          68  37  68  35  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     70  38  69  37  61 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ022>026-028>032.

&&

$$

29

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