Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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546
FXUS64 KLUB 250550
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

.AVIATION...
AN MCV HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITH THE AXIS OF ROTATION VIRTUALLY CENTERED OVER KLBB. THIS HAS
KEPT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON STATION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...LIGHTNING AND COVERAGE ARE ON THE
DECLINE PER LATEST RADAR UPDATES AS KLBB CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCAL
POINT OF THE ACTIVITY...THUS KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS UNTIL
07Z. ONCE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THERE WILL BE
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...WITH ALL THE RAINFALL...PATCHY FOG MAY BE AN
ISSUE LEADING UP TO SUNRISE AND A COUPLE HOURS FOLLOWING SUNRISE BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PLACE IN THE TAFS.

KCDS WILL HAVE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014/

AVIATION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE KLBB AT TIME OF ISSUANCE.
THUNDERSTORM ON STATION PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH VISIBILITY DOWN
TO 3/4MI. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR FROM IFR TO MVFR BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 03Z-04Z. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WAKE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. DUE TO PRECIP FROM THUNDERSTORMS AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY DROPPING VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR...LIFTING BY 13Z-
14Z...BECOMING VFR AFTER THAT.

KCDS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
MOVING IN DUE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE WEST...EVENTUALLY
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AT 230 PM...A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS CONTINUES TO
PROGRESS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE CWA. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROUGHLY ON THE SAME TRACK THROUGH OUR
CWA...FOLLOWING THE INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DOES
GRADUALLY DECREASE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PANHANDLE...SO THE STORMS
MAY EXHIBIT A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND...AT LEAST FOR HAIL
POTENTIAL...BUT WE COULD SEE SOME COLD POOL/OUTFLOW ORGANIZATION
WHICH COULD MAINTAIN/INCREASE THE WIND THREAT. BY 7 OR 8 PM...THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE EXITING OUR SRN-SW COUNTIES AND WE
WOULD EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZED. BUT WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA...WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
SOME REDEVELOPMENT EARLY THU MORNING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THIS
OCCURRENCE WITHIN A BROAD BAND RUNNING FROM THE WRN SPLNS INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WEST
DURING THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD DRAG THE BEST T-STORM CHANCES WITH
IT...AND WE EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE WEAKER IN GENERAL
THURSDAY...BUT ML-CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN SPLNS MAY
SUPPORT SOME STRONGER PULSE-TYPE CELLS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WE COULD SEE A BIT MORE WARMING IN THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS AS DRIER AIR AND LESS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED IN
THAT AREA.

LONG TERM...
A CHANGE TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC PATTERN REMAINS IN THE
OFFING BY LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS OUR RECENT
STRETCH OF STAGNANT FLOW IS REPLACED BY STRONGER WESTERLIES. UNTIL
THEN...MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF A
DECAYING AND LARGELY STATIONARY UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH BEFORE
WEAK RIDGING SHUNTS THIS FEATURE TO OUR EAST BY THE WEEKEND. SAID
LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH STILL LOOK TO RETROGRADE TO OUR WEST BY
FRI WHILE ADVECTING DRIER EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT...SO LOWER PWATS
AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY AFTER THU.

BY SAT...A DEEP CYCLONE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL HELP
SPUR RISING HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM INTO ERN NM. THIS PROCESS WILL
SLOSH THE REMNANTS OF THE DECAYING UPPER LOW BACK TO THE EAST AND
IN THE PROCESS PUSH A SLIVER OF DEEPER MOISTURE ATOP THE CWA. NOT
YET SOLD ON THE LIGHT QPF FROM THE GFS AND ECM BY SAT EVENING AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS RETAIN ENOUGH OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT
WHICH SHOULD CAP PARCELS SHY OF THEIR LFC HEIGHTS...ESPECIALLY IN
SUCH A WEAKLY FORCED SETUP.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SIT SQUARELY OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST BY MONDAY AHEAD OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW. DESPITE A SURFACE TROUGH PROGGED
TO SIT OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE ON MONDAY...THE DRYLINE
IS SHOWN TO LAG WELL BEHIND THIS FEATURE. NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE
MOISTURE AND BREAKABLE CAPPING MAY WARRANT SOME POPS IN LATER
FORECASTS IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES. THEREAFTER...THE DRYLINE
SHOULD PUSH THRU LATE MON/EARLY TUE AHEAD OF DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WRN RED RIVER OR EVEN
FARTHER WEST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. THIS COULD PROLONG POPS FOR
AT LEAST THE ROLLING PLAINS THRU MID/LATE WEEK UNDER A BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        77  55  76  56  76 /  30  10  10  10  10
TULIA         79  55  78  57  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     78  56  77  57  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     78  57  76  57  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       78  57  76  57  78 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   77  57  76  58  77 /  30  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    78  58  77  58  77 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     85  60  82  60  82 /  20   0  10  10  10
SPUR          81  58  80  60  80 /  10   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     83  61  83  62  83 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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