Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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291
FXUS64 KLUB 232123
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
323 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES IN CONJUNCTION WITH RISING
HEIGHTS...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH BROUGHT
THE EARLIER WEEK RAIN/SNOW...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND 40S IN LOCATIONS WITHOUT SNOWPACK.
SHOULD SEE SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERALL. ALTHOUGH
WARMER THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
STORE WITH READINGS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ATOP SNOWPACK WITH
MID-UPPER 20S SOUTH AND EAST. ANY FOG POTENTIAL SHOULD BE NEGATED BY
WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE WHILE MAINTAINING A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT.

LIGHT DOWNSLOPE BREEZES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...CONTINUED EXPENSE OF
SOLAR ENERGY ON THE LATENT HEAT FLUX WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ON THE CAPROCK...RANGING FROM THE MID 40S NEAR FRIONA TO LOW
50S NORTH AND WEST OF LUBBOCK. SNOW FREE AREAS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
RIDGING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO A HEALTHY WARM UP IN
TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A CLOSED LOW WILL SIT OUT
OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN AS IT COMES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE LEE TROUGHING FURTHER BUMPING TEMPERATURES
EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
REACH THE 70S AGAIN AROUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BECOME
CUT OFF...OFF SHORE. MODELS SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING A REX
BLOCK TYPE PATTERN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO WEST TEXAS.
FURTHERMORE...SEVERAL LEAD SHORT WAVES OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH AT THE MOMENT SO
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS VERY LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        15  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         19  48  26  58 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     22  49  27  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     23  51  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       23  53  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   22  51  28  63 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    25  51  28  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     26  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          28  55  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     29  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

31/01

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