Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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839
FXUS64 KLUB 080433
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1133 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD TRANSLATE TO CIGS AND/OR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS
NARROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR KLBB AND WILL KEEP IFR CONDITIONS
THERE. KCDS NOT AS FAVORED IN THE MODELS BUT NARROWING TEMP-DEW
SPREAD THERE A CONCERN. ANTICIPATE LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS IN THAT
TAF BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

AVIATION...
QUESTION THIS EVENING IS HOW LOW CIGS GO AND FOR HOW LONG. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN ABUNDANCE...PARTICULARLY AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND SW OF KLBB. AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER AROUND TO THOSE
DIRECTIONS WILL SEE THAT MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. AS A RESULT KLBB LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT PAST SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. KCDS MORE
QUESTIONABLE AS IT IS DEEPER INTO DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. WILL HOLD
OFF ON INSERTING ANY RESTRICTIONS THERE ATTM AND REEVALUATE WITH
EVENING MODEL RUNS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WHILE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...OVERALL COVERAGE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.  CLOUDS HAVE ESSENTIALLY BROKEN ACROSS
MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AT THIS POINT...AND CIGS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AS WELL.  THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD DECK ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ARE ESSENTIALLY ON TRACK THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WITH
HIGHS LIKELY RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TO
NEAR 80 ON THE ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED.

THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...AS LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH WILL ADD A WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LLANO
ESTACADO.  THIS PATTERN CAN OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.
WHILE ONLY THE NAM SEEMS TO BE PARTICULARLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT THIS
POSSIBILITY...THE PATTERN SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT
AND BREAK UP...LEADING TO A PLEASANT AFTERNOON OF PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD.  MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION...CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO KICK UP A NOTCH INTO THE
15-20 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN A
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND RESULT IN SRLY BREEZES
AS WELL AS PUMP UP TEMPS...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S
FOR THE MOST PART. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF SOME
T-STORMS LATE TUES AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MID-LVL MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. LOW-LVL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE NOT GREAT SO WE THINK ACTIVITY
WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO THE NW-N ZONES. MEANWHILE...A
SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
AS A DEEP UPPER LOW PIVOTS ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA
WED...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. VEERING/DRYING
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NOT MUCH SUPPORT ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT
FRONTAL-FORCED POPS TO OUR ERN ZONES LATE WED AND WED
NIGHT...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD RESIDE. A SECOND SURGE
OF COOL AIR SHOULD MOVE IN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. AND 1030 HIGH DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
HIGH PLAINS. MODELS STILL VARY ON THE DEGREE OF PRECIP IN THE
PORT-FRONTAL REGIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BE VERY
COOL AND CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. THURSDAY TEMPS LOOK VERY
CHILLY...PERHAPS NOT OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH. THUNDER
CHANCES ALSO LOOK PRETTY SLIM AFTER SOMETIME ON THURSDAY ONCE THE
REINFORCED FRONT SLIDES WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT WE KEPT TRW-
MENTION FOR NOW. A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND SHOULD ENSUE
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  84  64  89  63 /  10  10  10  20  20
TULIA         62  86  66  91  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     62  85  66  91  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     62  85  66  91  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       63  86  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   63  84  66  91  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  86  67  92  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     66  92  71  95  72 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          66  90  69  94  71 /  10  10  10   0  10
ASPERMONT     68  93  72  96  74 /  10  10  10   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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