Area Forecast Discussion
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109
FXUS64 KLUB 211643
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION. REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY NORTHWARD
EXPANSION TO A N-S AXIS OF RAIN FROM O`DONNELL TO MIDLAND. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 114 AS THE UPPER LOW /NOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND/ BEGINS
MOVING MORE EAST THAN NORTH. POPS TONIGHT MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
RAMPED UP MAINLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKS
TO ASSUME A FAVORABLE TRACK COMPLETE WITH SOME STEADY RAINFALL
RATES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH HAS SUPPLIED A HEALTHY PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AS IT
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS IS NOT CLEARLY
AS DEFINED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS IT CROSSES OVER WEST TEXAS.
ALSO...WHAT IS LEFT OF IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE
WILL BE A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AROUND THE TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. MID LEVELS
DRIED OUT YESTERDAY BUT TOP DOWN MOISTENING SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR
THIS MORNING. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
SO MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MODEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO FOLLOW FROM THE
WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
WARMER YET FOR SUNDAY AND WE FOLLOW SUITE WITH THIS FORECAST.
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS NOW
MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY
OUT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LEADING TO BREEZY OR LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID OR UPPER
80S MANY AREAS. A MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A SOMEWHAT RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT LIKELY BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A TAD COOLER AIR SEEPING INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER-TYPE DAY...WHILE
UNCLEAR IF WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO REMAIN IN ELEVATED
CATEGORY THOUGH SEEMS MORE PROBABLE EASTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN
ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BUCKLING UPPER FLOW
MAY REINFORCE COOLER AIR BY THURSDAY BUT PATTERN BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A NEW CUT-OFF LOW FORMING NEAR
BAJA. MODIFICATION LOOKS PLAUSIBLE NOW BY FRIDAY. AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT SEEMED SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE YESTERDAY WITH A TROUGH IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CENTERED ON NEXT THURSDAY NOW LOOK MORE
FLEETING. WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES BACK JUST TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY ANTICIPATING POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL MODEL DRYING WITH
LATER RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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