Area Forecast Discussion
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703
FXUS64 KLUB 111134
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWING AROUND FROM NORTHERLY THIS MORNING TO
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...WITH CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNTS OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WE WILL SEE A RATHER QUIET NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WEATHER DEPARTMENT
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS OF 07Z...A WEAK COLD
FRONT HAS BACKDOORED THROUGH ALL BUT SOUTHWEST YOAKUM COUNTY.
POST-FRONTAL AIR WAS MODESTLY COOLER AND MOISTURE FILLED...THOUGH IT
IS ALL RELATIVE. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE
TODAY...PROVIDING LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING SOUTHERLY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGING MOVES EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD OUT OF
THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS IT EDGES
EASTWARD. A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
FLOW AND OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS...BUT IT WILL BRING LITTLE FANFARE
OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...BEHIND YESTERDAY/S STALLING COLD FRONT...BUT
EVEN WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL THEN FOLLOW...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE 40S NORTHWEST TO MID-50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
A BIT OF A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS SHAPING UP FOR SAT/SUN/MON WEATHER WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PARTICULARS. SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SRN SPLNS AND ROLLING PLAINS SAT MORNING SHOULD MIX OUT WITH A
DRYLINE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ERN ROLLING PLAINS...PERHAPS
SIGHTLY FARTHER EAST IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE
DAY...WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...THE DRYLINE SHOULD HALT AND RETREAT WWD IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS TO THE WEST. THERE IS SOME INDICATIONS THAT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE
DRYLINE...PERHAPS FOCUSED IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE. WE/VE ADDED A
SLGT CHC OF TSRA FOR THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...INCOMING MID-LVL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD SPARK A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS BACK
TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. AS THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE LITTLE
MORE THAN VIRGA...WE/VE MAINTAINED A DRY FCST FOR NOW. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY...LIKELY WITHOUT PRODUCING
ANY RAIN CHANCES AS MOISTURE RACES OFF TO THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION
OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACCOMPANYING THE FROPA...BUT WE DO EXPECT
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND LOW STRATUS TO FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S...AND PERHAPS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. IN
ADDITION...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS WTX DURING THE
DAY...AND BOTH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP SOME LIGHT QPF
ACROSS OUR WRN AND NRN ZONES...SO WE/VE ADDED A SLGT CHC MENTION
FOR THAT POTENTIAL. CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO NOSE-DIVE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WE COULD SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK.

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPS
RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS...COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEK...HANDLING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST QUITE DIFFERENTLY.
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY WE/VE MAINTAINED MAX AND MIN TEMPS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO WITH A DRY FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CAPROCK..AS SW BREEZES INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH A WARM AND DRY
AIRMASS. DEWPOINT GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT SUSPECT...PROGGING
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE DRY AIR TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE. EVEN SO...RH VALUES STILL DROP UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE AND SPLNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  46  85  50  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         81  50  88  52  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     82  53  88  54  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     85  54  88  56  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       84  56  89  57  78 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   88  53  87  57  81 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    87  55  89  59  80 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     84  54  91  61  80 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          85  56  90  60  81 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     85  59  90  65  84 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

&&

$$

23/33/23

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