Area Forecast Discussion
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965
FXUS64 KLUB 182338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
A LULL IN THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL BATCH OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...OF HIGHER IMPACT WILL BE LOW
CIGS/VISBYS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS TONIGHT OF THE OCCURRENCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE LIFR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON KEEPING FLIGHT CONDITIONS
LIKELY NON-VFR...PARTICULARLY AT KLBB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY AS
REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL LEAD TO EXPANSIVE RAIN AND THUNDER
CHANCES...THE REAL WEATHER WILL BE MORE DOMINATED BY THE MESO-
SCALE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. BY LATE FRIDAY...LIFT SHOULD
EXPAND FURTHER AND THIS MAY OVERWHELM UNDERLYING FEATURES AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES NEAR ENOUGH ESPECIALLY TO THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS. FOR THIS EVENING...A VERY COOL AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOLLOWING THE MORNING RAIN SYSTEM. SOME BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WERE CAUSING A BIT
MORE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...WHILE BETTER WARMING WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AS WELL. AN EARLIER OUTFLOW
APPROACHING THAT AREA WAS WEAKENING. STILL...THE NORTHEAST CORNER
MAY BE SOMEWHAT PRONE TO STRONG STORMS...WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MORE UNDER THE GUN FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. BY LATE
IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WE REVERT TO THE
DOMINATING MOISTURE AND LIFT DRIVING DECENT LIGHT RAIN OR THUNDER
CHANCES...AND WILL FOLLOW THE HPC QPF TRENDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME KIND OF A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH GREATEST FLOOD THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE REMAINS OF
ODILE. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES CONTINUE. LIGHT FOG SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY.
RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND PERHAPS THROUGH THE WHOLE
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

A NEARLY SATURATED TROPOSPHERE /WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AT
TIMES/ IS PROGGED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE LEVELS GRADUALLY SHIFTING INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTIONS AT THE LOWER LEVELS
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS BEING SUPPLIED BY THE REMNANTS OF T.C. ODILE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...AS WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FORCING TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH THE
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS AND WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. THAT
SAID...IT DOES APPEAR THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED
WITH ODILE WILL MOVE FAIRLY SQUARELY OVER THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MAY LINGER OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. PORTIONS OF THE SHORTWAVE MAY BE
PICKED UP AND CARRIED EASTWARD...BUT AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENERGY IS
NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE MEAN FLOW AND LINGER
NEARBY...PERHAPS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LIKELY SHIFTING FROM
THE WESTERN ZONES TOMORROW TO THE EASTERN ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WHERE THEY MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A GOOD
POSSIBILITY THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE...AND AT SOME POINT HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS WELL.

THERE MAY FINALLY BE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER DRYING BY MONDAY TO REDUCE
THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG WITH A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES MAY KEEP AT LEAST LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS LONGER. ATTM...WE HAVE RAISED POPS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE WEEKEND WHILE MAINTAINING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SUB-MENTIONABLE POPS
THEREAFTER.

THE DEEP MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES SUPPRESSED WITH RATHER COOL DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS.
WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  71  62  76  61 /  60  80  70  30  40
TULIA         63  74  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  50  40
PLAINVIEW     64  73  64  75  63 /  60  70  70  60  50
LEVELLAND     65  73  65  76  64 /  70  80  70  50  50
LUBBOCK       65  75  66  75  65 /  70  70  70  60  50
DENVER CITY   66  75  66  79  64 /  70  80  60  50  50
BROWNFIELD    66  75  66  77  65 /  70  80  70  60  50
CHILDRESS     67  82  68  77  67 /  40  60  70  70  60
SPUR          67  78  67  79  67 /  60  70  70  70  60
ASPERMONT     69  83  70  82  69 /  60  60  60  70  60

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>024-027>044.

&&

$$

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