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704
FXUS64 KLUB 262321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THRU FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EDGE
THROUGH CDS AND PERHAPS PVW AFTER SUNRISE AHEAD OF N-NE
WINDS BEFORE DISSOLVING SOON THEREAFTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN PLACE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  SURFACE RIDGE HAS
SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE CAN KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BUT MODELS DO
GRADUALLY VEER WIND DIRECTIONS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
SUNRISE AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BOTH OF WHICH MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

RETURN TO WEST WIND IS SHORT LIVED AS A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
DURING THE DAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPACTING THE WRN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWRD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THUS PROMOTING
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. AS
SUCH...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED DESPITE AN ERWD
PROPAGATING UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN. MEXMOS HAS BACKED OFF ON
ADVERTISING LOWER 90 DEGREE TEMPS ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE AFTN
VERSUS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TEMP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NWRN
ZONES /DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT/ TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS ATTM.

THEREAFTER 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL DECLINE AS AN UA DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH AND
STRONGEST WITH THE SAID DISTURBANCE AS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER
DEPICTION PER THE ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE WHILST OPENING UP INTO AN UA
TROUGH...HENCE POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. RATHER
LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE STILL BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES
PER THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE PER THE ECMWF. MEXMOS TEMPS AS
A RESULT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS...GIVEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN EXPANSIVE PRECIP AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION EXHIBITING HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES
TUESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
303
FXUS64 KLUB 262029
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN PLACE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  SURFACE RIDGE HAS
SETTLED IN OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG WE CAN KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BUT MODELS DO
GRADUALLY VEER WIND DIRECTIONS MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BY
SUNRISE AND INCREASE SPEEDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...BOTH OF WHICH MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT.

RETURN TO WEST WIND IS SHORT LIVED AS A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS MAY RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
DURING THE DAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPACTING THE WRN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EWRD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...THUS PROMOTING
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN UPTICK IN 850 MB TEMPS. AS
SUCH...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS STILL EXPECTED DESPITE AN ERWD
PROPAGATING UA DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SENDING A COLD
FRONT TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA SUNDAY AFTN. MEXMOS HAS BACKED OFF ON
ADVERTISING LOWER 90 DEGREE TEMPS ON SUNDAY...GIVEN THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT CURRENTLY BEING SHOWN TO AFFECT THE REGION IN THE AFTN
VERSUS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TEMP ON
SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FROPA.
WILL LEAN TOWARDS TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NWRN
ZONES /DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT/ TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
LOW ROLLING PLAINS ATTM.

THEREAFTER 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL DECLINE AS AN UA DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GFS IS STILL THE MOST BULLISH AND
STRONGEST WITH THE SAID DISTURBANCE AS COMPARED TO THE WEAKER
DEPICTION PER THE ECMWF. HOWEVER THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER
AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE WHILST OPENING UP INTO AN UA
TROUGH...HENCE POSSIBLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE ECMWF. AS A
RESULT...BEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. RATHER
LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ARE STILL BEING SHOWN ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES
PER THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE PER THE ECMWF. MEXMOS TEMPS AS
A RESULT ARE NOT QUITE AS COOL NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUS
ITERATIONS...GIVEN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN EXPANSIVE PRECIP AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION EXHIBITING HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES
TUESDAY APPEAR REASONABLE ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        35  75  40  81 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         36  75  40  83 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     37  76  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     38  78  44  85 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       39  78  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   40  79  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    40  79  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     43  75  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          42  77  46  86 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     44  78  49  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
917
FXUS64 KLUB 261721 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1221 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DECREASING TREND TO VERY LIGHT WINDS BY 00 UTC/7PM. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SW THEN WEST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  38  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  39  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  42  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          63  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
919
FXUS64 KLUB 261127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A
DECREASING TREND TO VERY LIGHT WINDS BY 00 UTC/7PM. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SW THEN WEST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  38  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  39  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  42  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          63  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
339
FXUS64 KLUB 260832
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
332 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AT 230 AM...THE COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT THROUGH WEST TEXAS YESTERDAY
WAS ALREADY MOVING THROUGH DALLAS TO THE EAST AND SONORA TO THE
SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WERE FINALLY BEGINNING TO RELAX ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AREA...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM OR SO. ALSO...IR IMAGERY SHOWED A BAND
OF LOW STRATUS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY...WE WILL SEE
THE NORTH WINDS COME BACK UP BRIEFLY AROUND SUNRISE AS WE GET SOME
INITIAL MIXING OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT THE WIND WILL RELAX
MID-MORNING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. MODESTLY
COOL NRLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY
COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN WEST. LOWS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
30S ON THE CAPROCK AND LOW 40S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL LARGELY REMAIN UNEVENTFUL. LONG WAVE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BREAK DOWN AND MOVE EAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THIS
WILL LEAD TO RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MEXMOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S BY SUNDAY. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEND A COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BRINGING A BRIEF
BREAK TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH. ALTHOUGH BY THE TIME THE FRONT
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE WEAK AND WE WILL STILL SEE
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL INSISTENT ON A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS
SOLUTION DOES NOT AGREE WITH MUCH ELSE. THE ECMWF/GFSE/NAEFS SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEAKER WAVE WITH A POSITIVE TILT. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  35  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         62  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  36  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     62  38  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  38  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   62  39  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    63  39  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     66  42  76  46 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          63  41  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     64  44  78  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
341
FXUS64 KLUB 260435
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1135 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR LOOKS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW
MVFR DECKS MAY SNEAK SOUTH INTO CDS AT TIMES. NORTH WINDS HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN BELOW 30 KNOTS AT PVW FOLLOWING THE STRONGEST
PRESSURE RISES...SO THE AWW AT LBB MAY BE CANX`D AHEAD OF ITS 4 AM
EXPIRATION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN SPREADS CLOSE TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER SUNRISE COMPLETE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT N WINDS ON THURSDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT AT 415 PM
EXTENDED FROM MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW TO NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY
WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

93
436
FXUS64 KLUB 252354
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
654 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

...AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR LBB UNTIL 4AM THURSDAY FOR 30 KNOT
OR GREATER WINDS...

COLD FRONT IS JUST NORTH OF LBB AHEAD OF 15-25 KT NLY WINDS. EVEN
STRONGER WINDS ARE LAGGING FARTHER NORTH BUT WILL REACH LBB BY
01Z-02Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 KNOTS AND SOME BLDU. VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS
FROM SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST A LOWER
CHANCE OF THIS SO HAVE KEPT VFR LEVELS INTACT. STRONG WINDS WILL
CURTAIL FROM 07Z-10Z AND TREND LIGHT AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT AT 415 PM
EXTENDED FROM MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW TO NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY
WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

93
231
FXUS64 KLUB 252226 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCELERATE FROPA BY 1-2 HOURS GIVEN RECENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO
INSUFFICIENT WIND SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRONT AT 415 PM
EXTENDED FROM MULESHOE TO PLAINVIEW TO NORTHERN COTTLE COUNTY
WITH STEADY PRESSURE RISES AND RISING DEWPOINTS IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THE WIND SHIFT. NO OTHER UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A TUCUMCARI...
FRIONA...TULIA...TO CLARENDON LINE AND WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 MPH.  THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
CHILDRESS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY.  THIS HAS LEFT THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS IN
A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND WE ARE JUST NOW SEEING SOME AREAS REACH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AS MODELS ALL HAVE STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT OF AROUND 2-3 MILLIBARS PER HOUR THROUGH AT
LEAST 1 AM.  THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BARRIER JET ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH AFTER SUNSET THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STATIONS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL ISSUE ONE FROM 00Z
THROUGH 9Z TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

STRONG FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 55 MPH AT TIMES. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER
LIGHT HOWEVER AND WILL ONLY CARRY A TRACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. OTHER ISSUE WITH THE WIND SPEED WILL BE LOFTING OF THE
FINER SOIL PARTICLES RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. HARD TO
TELL HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE AND KEPT THEM GENERALLY AROUND
5-6 MILES FOR NOW. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAPID SCAN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO SEE IF WE GET A
GLIMPSE OF ANY BLOWING DUST/HABOOB ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH.

MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING SO THAT WE ARE AROUND 10
MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND COOL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW COURTESY OF TONIGHT/S RATHER BREEZY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE RETURN OF A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS RETURNING TO A SRLY FLOW BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TREK SEWRD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THUS RESULTING IN A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-
WEST AND ERN CONUS ON FRIDAY...TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST...THUS THE
WARM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE /HIGHS IN THE 70S/.
MEANWHILE...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPINGING ON THE WRN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION WHILST DE-AMPLIFYING.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
IS DESPITE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WHICH IS WHY IT IS INTERESTING THAT MEX GUIDANCE
IS WARMEST ON SUNDAY...SO MUCH SO THAT IT HINTS AT LOWER 90S FOR
KLBB...WHICH COULD NEAR/TIE THE RECORD OF 91 DEGREES SET IN 2012.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT TREND...BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE
90S FOR NOW.

THEREAFTER...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE
MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SAID DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...AS THERE REMAINS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL EXHIBITING
LOWERED TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK /BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S/ AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY REMAINS VALID ATTM.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-
035>038-041>044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

93
289
FXUS64 KLUB 252053
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
353 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND LATEST RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE INITIAL
WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR A TUCUMCARI...
FRIONA...TULIA...TO CLARENDON LINE AND WAS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD AROUND 10 MPH.  THE SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF
CHILDRESS WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE WESTERN
CONCHO VALLEY.  THIS HAS LEFT THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS IN
A VERY DRY AIRMASS AND WE ARE JUST NOW SEEING SOME AREAS REACH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS.

AS WE LOSE DAYTIME MIXING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...EXPECT
THE FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD AS MODELS ALL HAVE STRONG PRESSURE
RISES BEHIND THE FRONT OF AROUND 2-3 MILLIBARS PER HOUR THROUGH AT
LEAST 1 AM.  THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT DEVELOPS ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE BARRIER JET ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH AFTER SUNSET THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STATIONS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL ISSUE ONE FROM 00Z
THROUGH 9Z TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

STRONG FRONTOGENSIS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 55 MPH
AT TIMES.  ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT HOWEVER AND
WILL ONLY CARRY A TRACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  OTHER ISSUE
WITH THE WIND SPEED WILL BE LOFTING OF THE FINER SOIL PARTICLES
RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.  HARD TO TELL HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL BE AND KEPT THEM GENERALLY AROUND 5-6 MILES FOR
NOW.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAPID SCAN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AS LONG AS POSSIBLE TO SEE IF WE GET A GLIMPSE OF ANY
BLOWING DUST/HABOOB ACTIVITY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.

MIN TEMPS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MOSTLY COOLER ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH LATE MORNING SO THAT WE ARE AROUND 10
MPH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
AND COOL AIR IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN TOMORROW COURTESY OF TONIGHT/S RATHER BREEZY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE RETURN OF A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS RETURNING TO A SRLY FLOW BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO TREK SEWRD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN THUS RESULTING IN A
BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
COOLER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-
WEST AND ERN CONUS ON FRIDAY...TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST...THUS THE
WARM MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE /HIGHS IN THE 70S/.
MEANWHILE...AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING IMPINGING ON THE WRN CONUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION WHILST DE-AMPLIFYING.
INCREASING 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL RESULT IN
HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND /15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL/. THIS
IS DESPITE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND SENDING DOWN A COLD FRONT TO AFFECT THE CWA LATE SUNDAY
AFTN/EARLY EVENING. WHICH IS WHY IT IS INTERESTING THAT MEX GUIDANCE
IS WARMEST ON SUNDAY...SO MUCH SO THAT IT HINTS AT LOWER 90S FOR
KLBB...WHICH COULD NEAR/TIE THE RECORD OF 91 DEGREES SET IN 2012.
HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT TREND...BUT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE
90S FOR NOW.

THEREAFTER...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS A PACIFIC UA DISTURBANCE
MAKES IT WAY TOWARD THE AREA. THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
SAID DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...AS THERE REMAINS
HIGH SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. THE SUPERBLEND MODEL EXHIBITING
LOWERED TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK /BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S/ AND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY REMAINS VALID ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  61  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         33  63  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     34  62  35  73 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     34  63  36  76 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       35  64  37  76 /  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   37  63  37  76 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    37  64  38  77 /  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     40  67  40  72 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          40  65  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     44  66  43  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-
035>038-041>044.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

14/29
902
FXUS64 KLUB 251758 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1258 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 00Z/7PM LOCAL TIME
WHICH WILL SWING WIND DIRECTION OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 25-30 KTS AND GUSTS 30-38 KTS. THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS THAT WILL IMPACT KPVW BUT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
KLBB AND KCDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A MVFR CEILING THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS BY LATE IN THE
DAY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS FOR A PERIOD
THIS EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TONIGHT...A LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
06 UTC...BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SW MT/WRN WY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE ENTERING OUR NRN ZONES AROUND 6 PM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SHALLOW MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL GET SCOURED EASTWARD ON RISING W-SW BREEZES AS A
SURFACE LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
QUICKLY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S...AND NEAR 90F
ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S AS THEY/LL
SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING
TROUGH. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN WILL
PROMOTE A HIGH FIRE DANGER...DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. STEEP
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 39 MPH...FOR A PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...EVEN IF THE WINDS DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH WE ARE IN THE PLOWING SEASON WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
AVAILABILITY OF DIRT TO BE READILY LOFTED. FINALLY...WE MAY ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME HIGH-BASED RAIN OR VIRGA SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NW SPLNS AND FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AS THE STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COMBINES WITH LIFT AND SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A COOL...DRY AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A VERY BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO VALUES MUCH
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LARGE
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS. A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS/WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
NONE OF THESE ARE SHOWN TO QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. A
SUCCESSFUL FRONT MAY MAKE IT DOWN LATE ON SUNDAY BREAKING THE
STREAK OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A TROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
THIS TROUGH BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
AIR...AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ROUGHLY EAST OF I-27/US-87 AND SOUTH
OF US-70...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
SURROUNDING THIS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AND WE WILL
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. ALSO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...POSSIBLY CAUSING A SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  31  62  36 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         77  34  63  37 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     81  34  62  37 /   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  36  63  38 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       85  37  64  39 /   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     87  41  66  42 /   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  40  65  41 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  43  65  43 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-
035>038-041>044.

&&

$$
939
FXUS64 KLUB 251153
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
653 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS COULD APPROACH 30 KTS FOR A PERIOD
THIS EVENING. PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. TONIGHT...A LOW STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER
06 UTC...BUT WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SW MT/WRN WY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE ENTERING OUR NRN ZONES AROUND 6 PM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SHALLOW MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL GET SCOURED EASTWARD ON RISING W-SW BREEZES AS A
SURFACE LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
QUICKLY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S...AND NEAR 90F
ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S AS THEY/LL
SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING
TROUGH. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN WILL
PROMOTE A HIGH FIRE DANGER...DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. STEEP
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 39 MPH...FOR A PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...EVEN IF THE WINDS DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH WE ARE IN THE PLOWING SEASON WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
AVAILABILITY OF DIRT TO BE READILY LOFTED. FINALLY...WE MAY ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME HIGH-BASED RAIN OR VIRGA SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NW SPLNS AND FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AS THE STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COMBINES WITH LIFT AND SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A COOL...DRY AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

LONG TERM...
AFTER A VERY BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO VALUES MUCH
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LARGE
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS. A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS/WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
NONE OF THESE ARE SHOWN TO QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. A
SUCCESSFUL FRONT MAY MAKE IT DOWN LATE ON SUNDAY BREAKING THE
STREAK OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A TROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
THIS TROUGH BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
AIR...AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ROUGHLY EAST OF I-27/US-87 AND SOUTH
OF US-70...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
SURROUNDING THIS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AND WE WILL
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. ALSO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...POSSIBLY CAUSING A SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  31  62  36 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         77  34  63  37 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     81  34  62  37 /   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  36  63  38 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       85  37  64  39 /   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     87  41  66  42 /   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  40  65  41 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  43  65  43 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ030>032-035>038-041>044.

&&

$$

33
487
FXUS64 KLUB 250855
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
355 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER SW MT/WRN WY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL
BE ENTERING OUR NRN ZONES AROUND 6 PM GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SHALLOW MOISTURE RESIDING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL GET SCOURED EASTWARD ON RISING W-SW BREEZES AS A
SURFACE LOW MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THE DRYING AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP
QUICKLY AND AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S...AND NEAR 90F
ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ROLLING PLAINS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE WHERE THEY SHOULD STAY IN THE 70S AS THEY/LL
SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION WITH THE INCOMING
TROUGH. THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE WARM...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN WILL
PROMOTE A HIGH FIRE DANGER...DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL BELOW. STEEP
PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 39 MPH...FOR A PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP
WIND SPEEDS JUST UNDER THIS THRESHOLD FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE STRONG WINDS.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING DUST
ACROSS THE CAPROCK...EVEN IF THE WINDS DON/T QUITE REACH ADVISORY
STRENGTH WE ARE IN THE PLOWING SEASON WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
AVAILABILITY OF DIRT TO BE READILY LOFTED. FINALLY...WE MAY ALSO
HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME HIGH-BASED RAIN OR VIRGA SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NW SPLNS AND FAR SW TX PANHANDLE AS THE STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING COMBINES WITH LIFT AND SOME MID-LVL MOISTURE FROM
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF RAIN...BUT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE WIND GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST.

THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A COOL...DRY AIRMASS
SETTLING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPS MAY FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE NW ZONES WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER A VERY BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY FOLLOWING TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM BACK UP TO VALUES MUCH
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A LARGE
SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BUT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER
SOLUTIONS. A FEW SURFACE TROUGHS/WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO ENTER THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
NONE OF THESE ARE SHOWN TO QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. A
SUCCESSFUL FRONT MAY MAKE IT DOWN LATE ON SUNDAY BREAKING THE
STREAK OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A TROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE
MODELS ARE OBVIOUSLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGH SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE. IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH
THIS TROUGH BUT WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE COMBINATION OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY
AIR...AND GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
CRITICAL FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MOST CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ROUGHLY EAST OF I-27/US-87 AND SOUTH
OF US-70...AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA.
SURROUNDING THIS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AND WE WILL
ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. ALSO...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SHARP WIND SHIFT AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...POSSIBLY CAUSING A SUDDEN CHANGE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        73  31  62  36 /  10  10   0   0
TULIA         77  34  63  37 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     81  34  62  37 /   0  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     82  36  63  38 /   0  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       85  37  64  39 /   0  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   83  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  38  63  39 /   0  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     87  41  66  42 /   0  10  10   0
SPUR          87  40  65  41 /   0  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     89  43  65  43 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
639
FXUS64 KLUB 250451
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1151 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLIES DURING THE
DAY...STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD AROUND 26/00Z WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING HAS CHANGED TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  WIND HAS GRADUALLY VEERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS THE CAPROCK TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL SEE
THE WIND DIRECTION COME FULL CIRCLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET FALLING TO
BELOW 10 MPH AND POSSIBLY GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
CAPROCK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD ON THE CAPROCK WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOLDS ON TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.  NO ONE MODEL HAD A
GOOD GRASP ON EXPECTED MIN TEMPS SO STARTED WITH SUPERBLEND...COOLED
THE CAPROCK BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES...THEN RAISED THE ROLLING PLAINS
AROUND 7 DEGREES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON PREVIOUS MORNINGS
TEMPS AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING TOMORROW AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA.  COULD SEE SOME LOW 90S ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AS BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH WEST WIND PROVIDES A GOOD
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BIGGEST COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOMETIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS HAVE SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST.  THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT IS STILL MORE OF A
MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT...IT COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES AND TRENDED TEMPS THIS WAY A BIT BUT NOT AS COOL AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE COMING IN.  BREEZY WEST WIND AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS...SENDING DOWN A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 7-12 MB PER 3 HRS
SUGGEST NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AS HINTED AT BY MEX
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /31 MPH
SUSTAINED/. WOULD THEREFORE NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BIT OF DUST GETS
LOFTED IN THE AIR AND BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...THESE
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A SFC RIDGE SETTLES
NEAR THE REGION AOA 26/12Z AND PROMOTE MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
EXHIBITED SPARSE AND LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE FRONT. PROGGED
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE FROPA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND...THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS COURTESY OF SLIGHT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CAN NOT BE OVER RULED. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS TO 7-12 PERCENT ATTM. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES.

THANKS TO TOMORROW NIGHT/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS /THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING THANKS TO A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE CWA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SWING SFC WINDS TO THE
N-NE. FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BATTLING
WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-WEST AND ERN CONUS AND
WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF THE COLD AIR COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPILL
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ITERATIONSCONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE COLD AIR REMAINING NE OF THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOR NOW /HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S/. MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL
COMMENCE TO BREAK DOWN WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION. AS
SUCH...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL
OCCUR LEADING TO TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA
DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
DE-AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE...THUS PROMOTING LOWERED
HEIGHTS...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILS SUCH AS THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...BUT TEMPS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY PER THE SUPER-BLENDED MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM.

FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER
DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS A WEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF HAND SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED ONCE
AGAIN BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  72  32  62 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         44  78  35  63 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     45  82  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  83  36  63 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       48  85  36  64 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   44  81  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    44  83  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  87  39  66 /   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  89  43  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
260
FXUS64 KLUB 242333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING SWINGING
AROUND SLOWLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING HAS CHANGED TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  WIND HAS GRADUALLY VEERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS THE CAPROCK TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL SEE
THE WIND DIRECTION COME FULL CIRCLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET FALLING TO
BELOW 10 MPH AND POSSIBLY GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
CAPROCK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD ON THE CAPROCK WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOLDS ON TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.  NO ONE MODEL HAD A
GOOD GRASP ON EXPECTED MIN TEMPS SO STARTED WITH SUPERBLEND...COOLED
THE CAPROCK BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES...THEN RAISED THE ROLLING PLAINS
AROUND 7 DEGREES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON PREVIOUS MORNINGS
TEMPS AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING TOMORROW AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA.  COULD SEE SOME LOW 90S ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AS BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH WEST WIND PROVIDES A GOOD
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BIGGEST COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOMETIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS HAVE SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST.  THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT IS STILL MORE OF A
MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT...IT COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES AND TRENDED TEMPS THIS WAY A BIT BUT NOT AS COOL AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE COMING IN.  BREEZY WEST WIND AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS...SENDING DOWN A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 7-12 MB PER 3 HRS
SUGGEST NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AS HINTED AT BY MEX
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /31 MPH
SUSTAINED/. WOULD THEREFORE NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BIT OF DUST GETS
LOFTED IN THE AIR AND BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...THESE
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A SFC RIDGE SETTLES
NEAR THE REGION AOA 26/12Z AND PROMOTE MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
EXHIBITED SPARSE AND LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE FRONT. PROGGED
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE FROPA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND...THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS COURTESY OF SLIGHT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CAN NOT BE OVER RULED. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS TO 7-12 PERCENT ATTM. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES.

THANKS TO TOMORROW NIGHT/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS /THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING THANKS TO A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE CWA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SWING SFC WINDS TO THE
N-NE. FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BATTLING
WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-WEST AND ERN CONUS AND
WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF THE COLD AIR COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPILL
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ITERATIONSCONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE COLD AIR REMAINING NE OF THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOR NOW /HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S/. MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL
COMMENCE TO BREAK DOWN WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION. AS
SUCH...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL
OCCUR LEADING TO TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA
DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
DE-AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE...THUS PROMOTING LOWERED
HEIGHTS...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILS SUCH AS THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...BUT TEMPS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY PER THE SUPER-BLENDED MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM.

FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER
DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS A WEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF HAND SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED ONCE
AGAIN BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  72  32  62 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         44  78  35  63 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     45  82  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  83  36  63 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       48  85  36  64 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   44  81  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    44  83  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  87  39  66 /   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  89  43  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
396
FXUS64 KLUB 242049
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
349 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING HAS CHANGED TO
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  WIND HAS GRADUALLY VEERED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
ACROSS THE CAPROCK TO NORTHERLY ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL SEE
THE WIND DIRECTION COME FULL CIRCLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY.  WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET FALLING TO
BELOW 10 MPH AND POSSIBLY GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
CAPROCK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURES GRADIENT
AS RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD ON THE CAPROCK WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS HOLDS ON TO WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW.  NO ONE MODEL HAD A
GOOD GRASP ON EXPECTED MIN TEMPS SO STARTED WITH SUPERBLEND...COOLED
THE CAPROCK BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES...THEN RAISED THE ROLLING PLAINS
AROUND 7 DEGREES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON PREVIOUS MORNINGS
TEMPS AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE WEST IN THE MORNING TOMORROW AND WILL
ONCE AGAIN HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
SOUTHERN THREE QUARTERS OF THE AREA.  COULD SEE SOME LOW 90S ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS AS BREEZY 15 TO 25 MPH WEST WIND PROVIDES A GOOD
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT.  SOUTH PLAINS SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER 80S.
BIGGEST COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOMETIME IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING INTO THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS HAVE SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE
SLOWEST.  THE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT IS STILL MORE OF A
MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION.  DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT...IT COULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROW OF
COUNTIES AND TRENDED TEMPS THIS WAY A BIT BUT NOT AS COOL AS SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE COMING IN.  BREEZY WEST WIND AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

JORDAN

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING EWRD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THUS...SENDING DOWN A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL IMPINGE ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
EVENING/NIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF 7-12 MB PER 3 HRS
SUGGEST NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AS HINTED AT BY MEX
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS NEARING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA /31 MPH
SUSTAINED/. WOULD THEREFORE NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BIT OF DUST GETS
LOFTED IN THE AIR AND BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. HOWEVER...THESE
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A SFC RIDGE SETTLES
NEAR THE REGION AOA 26/12Z AND PROMOTE MUCH LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS.
NEXT CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS
EXHIBITED SPARSE AND LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ALONG THE FRONT. PROGGED
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER DRY LOW LEVELS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MID-LEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE FROPA. THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND...THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS COURTESY OF SLIGHT
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING CAN NOT BE OVER RULED. HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED POPS TO 7-12 PERCENT ATTM. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL
LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
RESIDES.

THANKS TO TOMORROW NIGHT/S COLD FRONT...TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE
COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS /THOUGH NOT TERRIBLY COLD FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR/ WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S EXPECTED. NORTH WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING THANKS TO A WEAK SFC LOW NW OF THE CWA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS SHOWN TO PROGRESS SEWRD ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRIEFLY SWING SFC WINDS TO THE
N-NE. FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN BATTLING
WITH A BROAD UA TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID-WEST AND ERN CONUS AND
WHETHER OR NOT SOME OF THE COLD AIR COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SPILL
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ITERATIONSCONTINUE
TO HINT AT THE COLD AIR REMAINING NE OF THE AREA SO WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY FOR NOW /HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S/. MEANWHILE...AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL
COMMENCE TO BREAK DOWN WHILST SHIFTING EWRD TOWARDS THE REGION. AS
SUCH...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS WILL
OCCUR LEADING TO TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UA
DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
DE-AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE...THUS PROMOTING LOWERED
HEIGHTS...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILS SUCH AS THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
UA DISTURBANCE STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT...BUT TEMPS DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY PER THE SUPER-BLENDED MODEL SEEMS REASONABLE ATTM.

FIRE WEATHER...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER
DAY OF ENHANCED FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AS A WEST WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10 TO 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OUT OF HAND SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE CRITICAL/RED FLAG FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP. MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED ONCE
AGAIN BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  72  32  62 /   0   0  10   0
TULIA         44  78  35  63 /   0   0  10   0
PLAINVIEW     45  82  36  62 /   0   0  10   0
LEVELLAND     44  83  36  63 /   0   0  10   0
LUBBOCK       48  85  36  64 /   0   0  10   0
DENVER CITY   44  81  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
BROWNFIELD    44  83  37  63 /   0   0  10   0
CHILDRESS     56  87  39  66 /   0   0  10  10
SPUR          54  87  40  65 /   0   0  10   0
ASPERMONT     58  89  43  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
329
FXUS64 KLUB 241727 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE WEST WILL START AFTER SUNRISE WITH A
RETURN OF A GUSTY WEST WIND BY LATE MORNING AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING EAST.
MODEST COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY MID MORNING WITH GENERAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIRMASS WITH
VFR DOMINATING OTHERWISE. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. MODEST 6 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AROUND 4-6 MB WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES AND WILL LEAD TO SURFACE WINDS INCREASING CLOSE TO 20 MPH FROM
MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. BACK WEST...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...LEADING TO LOW END SOUTHERLY
BREEZES AGAIN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. TODAYS WEAK FRONT SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY ON THE
CAP-ROCK...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. EASTERN ZONES WITH A
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAIL OFF A FEW DEGREES LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER OKLAHOMA SKIRTS THIS
AREA. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
TROUGH TAKING BACK OVER AND PROBABLY AT LEAST THIN CIRRUS SPREADING
OVER DURING THE NIGHT. MINOR CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DELIVER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS BY ON THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK
TO BE FLEETING. THERE WILL BE VERY BRIEF LIFT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY DRY. CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED MUCH FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

THE MAIN IMPACT AND POINT OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...DIFFERENCES
THEN AMPLIFY. A PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING ANOTHER COLD PUNCH
ON FRIDAY HAS BACKED OFF NOW. COLDER AIR IS NOW SHOWN TO STRUGGLE
IN MAKING ITS WAY DOWN INTO THIS PART OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A RESEMBLANCE OF THESE PREVIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. VERY WIDE TEMPERATURE
RANGES ARE DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF COLDER AIR DIMINISHING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DO SHOW THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US BREAKING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US AS SHOWN IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. ALTHOUGH JUST
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME
BRIEF THUNDER AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGEST BREEZES TODAY NORTHEAST ZONES WILL TEAM WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CONCERN WOULD
BE THIS AREA...THE NORTHERN TWO OR THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LOW END BREEZES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  41  73  31 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         79  44  75  35 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     80  45  77  35 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     82  46  81  36 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  48  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  48  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  48  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  52  83  42 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          86  52  85  41 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  54  88  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
517
FXUS64 KLUB 241122
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
622 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS MOVING EAST.
MODEST COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY MID MORNING WITH GENERAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS LASTING UNTIL EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. DRY AIRMASS WITH
VFR DOMINATING OTHERWISE. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. MODEST 6 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AROUND 4-6 MB WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES AND WILL LEAD TO SURFACE WINDS INCREASING CLOSE TO 20 MPH FROM
MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. BACK WEST...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...LEADING TO LOW END SOUTHERLY
BREEZES AGAIN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. TODAYS WEAK FRONT SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY ON THE
CAP-ROCK...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. EASTERN ZONES WITH A
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAIL OFF A FEW DEGREES LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER OKLAHOMA SKIRTS THIS
AREA. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
TROUGH TAKING BACK OVER AND PROBABLY AT LEAST THIN CIRRUS SPREADING
OVER DURING THE NIGHT. MINOR CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DELIVER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS BY ON THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK
TO BE FLEETING. THERE WILL BE VERY BRIEF LIFT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY DRY. CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED MUCH FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

THE MAIN IMPACT AND POINT OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...DIFFERENCES
THEN AMPLIFY. A PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING ANOTHER COLD PUNCH
ON FRIDAY HAS BACKED OFF NOW. COLDER AIR IS NOW SHOWN TO STRUGGLE
IN MAKING ITS WAY DOWN INTO THIS PART OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A RESEMBLANCE OF THESE PREVIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. VERY WIDE TEMPERATURE
RANGES ARE DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF COLDER AIR DIMINISHING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DO SHOW THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US BREAKING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US AS SHOWN IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. ALTHOUGH JUST
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME
BRIEF THUNDER AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGEST BREEZES TODAY NORTHEAST ZONES WILL TEAM WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CONCERN WOULD
BE THIS AREA...THE NORTHERN TWO OR THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LOW END BREEZES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  41  73  31 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         79  44  75  35 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     80  45  77  35 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     82  46  81  36 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  48  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  48  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  48  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  52  83  42 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          86  52  85  41 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  54  88  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
436
FXUS64 KLUB 240848
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
348 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
BREEZES WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER. MODEST 6 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISES AROUND 4-6 MB WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES AND WILL LEAD TO SURFACE WINDS INCREASING CLOSE TO 20 MPH FROM
MID MORNING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
QUICKLY WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS THEN WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. BACK WEST...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...LEADING TO LOW END SOUTHERLY
BREEZES AGAIN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. TODAYS WEAK FRONT SHOULD
BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS FROM YESTERDAY ON THE
CAP-ROCK...BUT NOT SEEING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. EASTERN ZONES WITH A
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM AGAIN TODAY
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAIL OFF A FEW DEGREES LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER OKLAHOMA SKIRTS THIS
AREA. SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
TROUGH TAKING BACK OVER AND PROBABLY AT LEAST THIN CIRRUS SPREADING
OVER DURING THE NIGHT. MINOR CHANGES. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL DELIVER MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE MARCH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS BY ON THURSDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK
TO BE FLEETING. THERE WILL BE VERY BRIEF LIFT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE
BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. LOW LEVELS
WILL BE ESPECIALLY DRY. CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED MUCH FARTHER EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.

THE MAIN IMPACT AND POINT OF CONTENTION IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
WILL BE THE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS...DIFFERENCES
THEN AMPLIFY. A PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING ANOTHER COLD PUNCH
ON FRIDAY HAS BACKED OFF NOW. COLDER AIR IS NOW SHOWN TO STRUGGLE
IN MAKING ITS WAY DOWN INTO THIS PART OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A RESEMBLANCE OF THESE PREVIOUS OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS
ARE STILL SEEN IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. VERY WIDE TEMPERATURE
RANGES ARE DEPICTED IN THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS BUT WILL SIDE WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES OF COLDER AIR DIMINISHING.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS DO SHOW THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US BREAKING DOWN WHICH MAY ALLOW A TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US AS SHOWN IN BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS. ALTHOUGH JUST
BEYOND THE RANGE OF THIS FORECAST...THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME
BRIEF THUNDER AROUND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONGEST BREEZES TODAY NORTHEAST ZONES WILL TEAM WITH WARMEST
TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING HUMIDITY. ALTHOUGH HIGHEST CONCERN WOULD
BE THIS AREA...THE NORTHERN TWO OR THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES WILL
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST LOW END BREEZES AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR MID MORNING
TO MID AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS NORTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST TO THE ROLLING PLAINS. RMCQUEEN

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  41  73  31 /   0   0   0  10
TULIA         79  44  75  35 /   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     80  45  77  35 /   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     82  46  81  36 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       83  48  83  38 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   82  48  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    83  48  83  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     85  52  83  42 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          86  52  85  41 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     88  54  88  44 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01
980
FXUS64 KLUB 240409
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1109 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU THE FCST PERIOD. SOUTH TO SW WINDS
TO VEER TO NW TO NORTH AND BRIEFLY INCREASE ABOVE 12 KTS MID-
MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AND MOVING AROUND TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SCOOT TO OUR NORTH DRIVING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK SUCH THAT RETURN FLOW SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AS SUCH...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND QUIET WITH NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS
OTHER SOME STREAMING CIRRUS.

LOOKING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMBINE
WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES NEAR 10
PCT.

LONG TERM...
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ON WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THEY
SHOULD BE SAFE FROM SETTING NEW RECORDS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
FROPA TIMING...AFTER 00Z THURS...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FROPA
THROUGH THE FA BY 00Z THURS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND OF
THE THREE TIMES HAVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA BY 04Z. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15-20KTS WHICH IN ADDITION TO WARM AND
DRY AIR WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT MORE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. ALSO IN QUESTION WITH THE FRONT IS THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...HAVE
BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
SUPPLYING QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AT NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...CONDITIONS GO FROM DRY /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C/ TO
MOIST /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 5C/ IN AN HOUR. WHILE THIS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN EXTREME TEMP CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT THE
NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. IT HAS LITTLE IN TEMP CHANGE BUT INSTEAD
RAISES THE DEWPOINT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SUCH A RISE IN THE
DEWPOINT IS NOT AS CONVINCING AS IF DEEP GULF MOISTURE WAS TO BE
PUMPED INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CAA AT
THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPS
THURS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPS
MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AND SHOULD STICK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY WHILE PUSHING
EASTWARD AND WILL REST OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEKEND HELPING TO
RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  78  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  85  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  87  51  86 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  85  52  85 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     60  89  53  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
218
FXUS64 KLUB 232251
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
551 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO SW WINDS OVERNIGHT
MAINLY AOB 12 KTS /SLIGHTLY STRONGER THRU THE EVENING KCDS/ TO
VEER TO NW TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SCOOT TO OUR NORTH DRIVING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK SUCH THAT RETURN FLOW SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AS SUCH...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND QUIET WITH NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS
OTHER SOME STREAMING CIRRUS.

LOOKING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMBINE
WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES NEAR 10
PCT.

LONG TERM...
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ON WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THEY
SHOULD BE SAFE FROM SETTING NEW RECORDS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
FROPA TIMING...AFTER 00Z THURS...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FROPA
THROUGH THE FA BY 00Z THURS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND OF
THE THREE TIMES HAVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA BY 04Z. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15-20KTS WHICH IN ADDITION TO WARM AND
DRY AIR WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT MORE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. ALSO IN QUESTION WITH THE FRONT IS THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...HAVE
BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
SUPPLYING QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AT NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...CONDITIONS GO FROM DRY /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C/ TO
MOIST /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 5C/ IN AN HOUR. WHILE THIS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN EXTREME TEMP CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT THE
NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. IT HAS LITTLE IN TEMP CHANGE BUT INSTEAD
RAISES THE DEWPOINT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SUCH A RISE IN THE
DEWPOINT IS NOT AS CONVINCING AS IF DEEP GULF MOISTURE WAS TO BE
PUMPED INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CAA AT
THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPS
THURS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPS
MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AND SHOULD STICK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY WHILE PUSHING
EASTWARD AND WILL REST OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEKEND HELPING TO
RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  78  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  85  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  87  51  86 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  85  52  85 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     60  89  53  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
605
FXUS64 KLUB 232031
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH
A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SCOOT TO OUR NORTH DRIVING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.  HOWEVER...THE PUSH IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK SUCH THAT RETURN FLOW SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE IN THE DAY.  AS SUCH...SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND QUIET WITH NOT JUST A WHOLE LOT OF CLOUDS
OTHER SOME STREAMING CIRRUS.

LOOKING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS THE GREATEST CONCERN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE VERY DRY FUELS WILL COMBINE
WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND RH VALUES NEAR 10
PCT.

.LONG TERM...
TEMPS WILL BE WARM ON WED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE THEY
SHOULD BE SAFE FROM SETTING NEW RECORDS. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
IN FRONTAL TIMING BETWEEN MODELS. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR
FROPA TIMING...AFTER 00Z THURS...WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FROPA
THROUGH THE FA BY 00Z THURS. FOR NOW THE FORECAST WILL BE A BLEND OF
THE THREE TIMES HAVING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE FA BY 04Z. WINDS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL BE AROUND 15-20KTS WHICH IN ADDITION TO WARM AND
DRY AIR WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE
A BIT MORE GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT...20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. ALSO IN QUESTION WITH THE FRONT IS THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIP. MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...HAVE
BEEN TRENDING DRIER WITH EACH RUN. THE NAM IS THE ONLY MODEL
SUPPLYING QPF BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOKING AT NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...CONDITIONS GO FROM DRY /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20C/ TO
MOIST /DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 5C/ IN AN HOUR. WHILE THIS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AN EXTREME TEMP CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT THE
NAM DOES NOT SHOW THIS. IT HAS LITTLE IN TEMP CHANGE BUT INSTEAD
RAISES THE DEWPOINT RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT. SUCH A RISE IN THE
DEWPOINT IS NOT AS CONVINCING AS IF DEEP GULF MOISTURE WAS TO BE
PUMPED INTO THE REGION. FOR THIS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WED WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THURS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED CAA AT
THE SURFACE WITH HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. TEMPS
THURS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE TEMPS
MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY AND SHOULD STICK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY WHILE PUSHING
EASTWARD AND WILL REST OVER THE REGION BY MID WEEKEND HELPING TO
RAISE TEMPS INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  78  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         46  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  82  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     47  83  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  85  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  81  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  83  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     55  87  51  86 /   0   0   0  10
SPUR          54  85  52  85 /   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     60  89  53  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51
669
FXUS64 KLUB 231734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY BECOME A BIT BREEZY AT KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE BUT OTHER THAN BEING A
BIT BUMPY FROM DEEP MIXING. SMOOTHER AIR IS PROBABLY OUT OF REACH
FOR NORMALLY ASPIRATED AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
INVERSION UP ABOVE 14KFT.  A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING WITH IT LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND
SHIFT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL BEEF UP
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. A DRYLINE WILL MAKE A GOOD PUSH INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEEPER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING US BACK TO REALITY WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
WEST TEXAS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAXES ARE WEAK AND WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TO SEE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON SURFACE WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK 20-25KT MAX AT 700MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS BUT THIS IS NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WE WILL
SEE DEEP MIXING TO APPROXIMATELY 600MB BUT WINDS AT THIS LEVEL STILL
TOP OUT AT 15-20KT. THIS IS ALSO IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
DOES NOT GET IN THE WAY OF DEEP MIXING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS WEEK
GRADUALLY CARVING OUT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS BY THURSDAY. INITIALLY...PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
AND BREEZY PERIODS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COOL PUSHES SUCH AS
TUESDAY. BUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD AIR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY WHILE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ADDITIONAL LIFT THOUGH WITH HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CENTERED
ON THURSDAY AS THE LAST COUPLE WRF/NAM RUNS SEEM TO BE QUITE WET
COMPARED TO ANYTHING ELSE. THEN...A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH BY FRIDAY APPEARS WILL ALLOW A TAP OF BONAFIDE
COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THOUGH
LOOKING MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD BE FORCED EAST AND FLATTENED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS NEW PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOLID WEEKEND WARMUP STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE ANY SUCH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK.

BIGGEST CHANGES THIS TIME INVOLVED A BIT MORE BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS PERSISTING WEDNESDAY. THEN...CONSIDERATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY THOUGH MINIMIZED FOR NOW AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. ALSO...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER NOTCH FOR
FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE WARMING NEXT WEEKEND. A COOL DOWN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS LEAVING MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 MPH
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AT THESE SPEEDS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY INTERMITTENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THEN PERHAPS INTO
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MODEST COOL PUSH TUESDAY UNLIKELY TO
DISLODGE THE WARM DRY PATTERN. ENOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY
LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TRENDING
MORE LIKELY AS WELL TO SEE AREA-WIDE TYPE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING. STRONGER WIND FLOW STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. RMCQUEEN

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  42  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  46  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  47  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     84  47  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     86  54  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          85  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
451
FXUS64 KLUB 231127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOG WILL REMAIN VERY PATCHY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING.
A LARGER AREA OF VLIFR FOG TO THE EAST OF KCDS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE TERMINAL. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET BUT WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BREEZY AT KCDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL BEEF UP
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. A DRYLINE WILL MAKE A GOOD PUSH INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEEPER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING US BACK TO REALITY WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
WEST TEXAS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAXES ARE WEAK AND WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TO SEE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON SURFACE WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK 20-25KT MAX AT 700MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS BUT THIS IS NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WE WILL
SEE DEEP MIXING TO APPROXIMATELY 600MB BUT WINDS AT THIS LEVEL STILL
TOP OUT AT 15-20KT. THIS IS ALSO IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
DOES NOT GET IN THE WAY OF DEEP MIXING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS WEEK
GRADUALLY CARVING OUT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS BY THURSDAY. INITIALLY...PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
AND BREEZY PERIODS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COOL PUSHES SUCH AS
TUESDAY. BUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD AIR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY WHILE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ADDITIONAL LIFT THOUGH WITH HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CENTERED
ON THURSDAY AS THE LAST COUPLE WRF/NAM RUNS SEEM TO BE QUITE WET
COMPARED TO ANYTHING ELSE. THEN...A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH BY FRIDAY APPEARS WILL ALLOW A TAP OF BONAFIDE
COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THOUGH
LOOKING MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD BE FORCED EAST AND FLATTENED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS NEW PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOLID WEEKEND WARMUP STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE ANY SUCH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK.

BIGGEST CHANGES THIS TIME INVOLVED A BIT MORE BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS PERSISTING WEDNESDAY. THEN...CONSIDERATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY THOUGH MINIMIZED FOR NOW AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. ALSO...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER NOTCH FOR
FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE WARMING NEXT WEEKEND. A COOL DOWN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS LEAVING MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 MPH
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AT THESE SPEEDS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY INTERMITTENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THEN PERHAPS INTO
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MODEST COOL PUSH TUESDAY UNLIKELY TO
DISLODGE THE WARM DRY PATTERN. ENOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY
LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TRENDING
MORE LIKELY AS WELL TO SEE AREA-WIDE TYPE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING. STRONGER WIND FLOW STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. RMCQUEEN

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  42  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  46  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  47  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     84  47  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     86  54  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          85  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
590
FXUS64 KLUB 230923
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
423 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SHORT WAVE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL BEEF UP
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING. A DRYLINE WILL MAKE A GOOD PUSH INTO THE
ROLLING PLAINS WITH DEEPER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BRING US BACK TO REALITY WITH INCREASED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC FIRE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
WEST TEXAS. MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAXES ARE WEAK AND WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION TO SEE ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACT ON SURFACE WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A WEAK 20-25KT MAX AT 700MB CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS BUT THIS IS NOT ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WE WILL
SEE DEEP MIXING TO APPROXIMATELY 600MB BUT WINDS AT THIS LEVEL STILL
TOP OUT AT 15-20KT. THIS IS ALSO IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MOVING IN
DOES NOT GET IN THE WAY OF DEEP MIXING. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC WAVES WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THIS WEEK
GRADUALLY CARVING OUT A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS BY THURSDAY. INITIALLY...PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR DRY
AND BREEZY PERIODS WITH RELATIVELY WEAK COOL PUSHES SUCH AS
TUESDAY. BUT BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A STRONGER PUSH OF
COLD AIR SHOULD BE UNDERWAY WHILE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE CAPABLE OF
ADDITIONAL LIFT THOUGH WITH HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION CHANCES CENTERED
ON THURSDAY AS THE LAST COUPLE WRF/NAM RUNS SEEM TO BE QUITE WET
COMPARED TO ANYTHING ELSE. THEN...A MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH BY FRIDAY APPEARS WILL ALLOW A TAP OF BONAFIDE
COLD CANADIAN AIR SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS THOUGH
LOOKING MORE LIKE A GLANCING BLOW FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE WESTERN RIDGE SHOULD BE FORCED EAST AND FLATTENED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS NEW PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A
SOLID WEEKEND WARMUP STILL LOOKS REASONABLE BEFORE ANY SUCH UPPER
TROUGH APPROACH EARLY IN THE NEXT WEEK.

BIGGEST CHANGES THIS TIME INVOLVED A BIT MORE BREEZY AND MILD
CONDITIONS PERSISTING WEDNESDAY. THEN...CONSIDERATION OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY THOUGH MINIMIZED FOR NOW AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. ALSO...LOWERED TEMPERATURES ANOTHER NOTCH FOR
FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE WARMING NEXT WEEKEND. A COOL DOWN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED NEXT SUNDAY LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
INTO THE MID 80S WHICH IS NEAR RECORD TERRITORY. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS WILL
CAUSE AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 PERCENT
ON THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE. A DRYLINE WILL STALL
OUT OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS LEAVING MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL CAUSE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE 20 FOOT LEVEL WILL LIKELY APPROACH 20 MPH
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUSTAINED AT THESE SPEEDS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. BECAUSE OF THIS...ONLY INTERMITTENT
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND THEN PERHAPS INTO
NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM LIKELY
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. MODEST COOL PUSH TUESDAY UNLIKELY TO
DISLODGE THE WARM DRY PATTERN. ENOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS EARLY TUESDAY
LOOK LIKE ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DAY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY TRENDING
MORE LIKELY AS WELL TO SEE AREA-WIDE TYPE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REFORM ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP MIXING. STRONGER WIND FLOW STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. RMCQUEEN

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        84  42  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         84  46  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     84  47  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     84  47  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       86  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   84  48  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    84  48  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     86  54  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          85  54  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     85  59  87  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
255
FXUS64 KLUB 230440
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ASIDE FROM A
BOUT WITH PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING. THE FOG MAY AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WE
WILL LIMIT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15 UTC. SW
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BECOMING
SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. THE WIND WILL REMAIN BREEZY MONDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AT KCDS...EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WE HAVE INDICATED A MVFR PERIOD IN THE TAFS. ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15 UTC. SW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. DIFFUSE
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH TO THE TX-
NM BORDER AND WILL REDUCE IN LENGTH AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT SETTLES
INTO THE NW PANHANDLE BY MON MORNING. RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN INTACT TONIGHT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR EARLY A.M. FOG GENERALLY OFF THE CAPROCK.

BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE EXITED
EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DEEPER W-SW FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL AID IN BIRTHING AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ALL THE WHILE PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH IN COLORADO. SCANT BACKGROUND ASCENT THIS FAR
SOUTH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE SPELLS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CU
ALONG THE DRYLINE.

OUR ONLY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS FOR NEAR-CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
MAINLY IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES NEAR THE EDGE OF 20-30 KNOT WIND MAX
FROM 850-700MB. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS /RECORD HIGH LIKELY AT
LBB/ WILL SINK RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS...BUT THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF 20-FT WIND SPEEDS NECESSARY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE TOO MARGINAL.

LONG TERM...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND OF DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH BELOW
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY MORNING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM NEAR RECORD VALUES IN SOME SPOTS
ON MONDAY. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WHICH IS APPROX 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH WILL PEAK IN THE MID/LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND SUBSIDE A
LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP OUR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW.

ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A BROAD TROUGH AXIS SETTING
UP WEDNESDAY TO OUR WEST WITHIN A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE BUT GFS
PICKS UP ON SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG COLD FRONT THAT REACHES OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE
UNDER STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MANY OF US
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER CHANCES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE AND TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INDICATE
SOME QPF BUT LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION AT THIS POINT GIVEN DOUBT IN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN AN OTHERWISE DRY MODIFIED AIR MASS.

RIDGING PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST SIGN OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NOT
COMING UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  84  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  84  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  86  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
175
FXUS64 KLUB 230013
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
713 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AT KCDS...EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WE HAVE INDICATED A MVFR PERIOD IN THE TAFS. ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15 UTC. SW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. DIFFUSE
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH TO THE TX-
NM BORDER AND WILL REDUCE IN LENGTH AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT SETTLES
INTO THE NW PANHANDLE BY MON MORNING. RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN INTACT TONIGHT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR EARLY A.M. FOG GENERALLY OFF THE CAPROCK.

BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE EXITED
EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DEEPER W-SW FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL AID IN BIRTHING AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ALL THE WHILE PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH IN COLORADO. SCANT BACKGROUND ASCENT THIS FAR
SOUTH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE SPELLS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CU
ALONG THE DRYLINE.

OUR ONLY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS FOR NEAR-CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
MAINLY IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES NEAR THE EDGE OF 20-30 KNOT WIND MAX
FROM 850-700MB. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS /RECORD HIGH LIKELY AT
LBB/ WILL SINK RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS...BUT THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF 20-FT WIND SPEEDS NECESSARY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE TOO MARGINAL.

LONG TERM...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND OF DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH BELOW
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY MORNING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM NEAR RECORD VALUES IN SOME SPOTS
ON MONDAY. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WHICH IS APPROX 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH WILL PEAK IN THE MID/LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND SUBSIDE A
LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP OUR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW.

ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A BROAD TROUGH AXIS SETTING
UP WEDNESDAY TO OUR WEST WITHIN A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE BUT GFS
PICKS UP ON SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG COLD FRONT THAT REACHES OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE
UNDER STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MANY OF US
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER CHANCES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE AND TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INDICATE
SOME QPF BUT LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION AT THIS POINT GIVEN DOUBT IN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN AN OTHERWISE DRY MODIFIED AIR MASS.

RIDGING PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST SIGN OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NOT
COMING UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  84  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  84  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  86  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
813
FXUS64 KLUB 221958
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
258 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. DIFFUSE
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH TO THE TX-
NM BORDER AND WILL REDUCE IN LENGTH AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT SETTLES
INTO THE NW PANHANDLE BY MON MORNING. RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN INTACT TONIGHT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR EARLY A.M. FOG GENERALLY OFF THE CAPROCK.

BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE EXITED
EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DEEPER W-SW FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL AID IN BIRTHING AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ALL THE WHILE PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH IN COLORADO. SCANT BACKGROUND ASCENT THIS FAR
SOUTH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE SPELLS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CU
ALONG THE DRYLINE.

OUR ONLY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS FOR NEAR-CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
MAINLY IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES NEAR THE EDGE OF 20-30 KNOT WIND MAX
FROM 850-700MB. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS /RECORD HIGH LIKELY AT
LBB/ WILL SINK RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS...BUT THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF 20-FT WIND SPEEDS NECESSARY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE TOO MARGINAL.

.LONG TERM...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND OF DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH BELOW
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY MORNING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHLTY FROM NEAR RECORD VALUES IN SOME SPOTS
ON MONDAY. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WHICH IS APPROX 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH WILL PEAK IN THE MID/LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND SUBSIDE A
LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP OUR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW.

ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A BROAD TROUGH AXIS SETTING
UP WEDNESDAY TO OUR WEST WITHIN A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE BUT GFS
PICKS UP ON SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG COLD FRONT THAT REACHES OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE
UNDER STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MANY OF US
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER CHANCES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE AND TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INDICATE
SOME QPF BUT LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION AT THIS POINT GIVEN DOUBT IN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN AN OTHERWISE DRY MODIFIED AIR MASS.

RIDGING PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST SIGN OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NOT
COMING UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  84  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  84  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  86  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/55
709
FXUS64 KLUB 221704
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1204 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR AND SKC WILL PREVAIL AT LBB AND PVW THRU 18Z MONDAY...THOUGH
CDS STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR VISBYS BY EARLY
MON MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AREA WIDE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE
IMMEDIATE DEPARTURE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ENOUGH RAIN
FELL TO GREATLY BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LESS OR
NO RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT OF
THE FOG TODAY WITH LESS MIXING IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
TODAY WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
DRYING AND WARMING STILL EXPECTED TO KICK IN WITH EARNEST MONDAY
THOUGH MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG OFF THE CAPROCK MONDAY MORNING. BUT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN M0NDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PULL EAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE DOWNSLOPE WARMING
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK AT LEAST WILL
BE SOARING INTO RECORD TERRITORY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHILE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE MARCH 23RD RECORD OF 92 AT
CHILDRESS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX TO ABOVE 700
MB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND COULD RAISE WINDS INTO WINDY CATEGORY AT
TIMES FOR NORTHERN ZONES AT LEAST. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO
RESULT NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH A SHOT OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY RESEMBLING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ALSO SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAYS
READINGS. THE WIND MAXIMUM FROM THE WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TO RENEW SURFACE TROUGHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AGAINST THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A BETTER
QUALITY PUSH OF COOL AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT OVERLY GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION OUTPUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH IN THE VICINITY
TO RETAIN A SMALL MENTION FOR SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF AGAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY ANCHORING THE SOUTH END OF A REX BLOCK
AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. BLOCK MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BEYOND
THAT FOR A CLIPPER WAVE TO SEND MORE COOL AIR OUR WAY BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT DRYNESS LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
UNLESS THE OLD CUT-OFF LOW SOMEHOW FINDS A WAY TO CURL BACK
NORTHEAST...THAT SEEMS DOUBTFUL FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS LOOK A GOOD BET MONDAY FOR AREAS
ON THE CAP-ROCK AND AT LEAST THE PART OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT. 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15
PERCENT FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM CHILDRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH STONEWALL. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
FLOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEEP MIXING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF WINDS MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY...EXPECTED TO EXCEED RECORD LEVELS
ON THE CAP-ROCK...AND ALSO MAY FACTOR INTO FIRE BEHAVIOR.
ANYWAY... USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE BURN PLANS FOR MONDAY AS
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG LEVELS AT TIMES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
512
FXUS64 KLUB 221135
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
635 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
RECENT RAINFALL HAS SET THE STAGE FOR FOG THIS MORNING.
INTERMITTENT VLIFR VISBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT
ALL TAF SITES. VISBYS AND CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES. LOW CIGS AND VISBYS MAY
RETURN TO KCDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE
IMMEDIATE DEPARTURE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ENOUGH RAIN
FELL TO GREATLY BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LESS OR
NO RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT OF
THE FOG TODAY WITH LESS MIXING IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
TODAY WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

LONG TERM...
DRYING AND WARMING STILL EXPECTED TO KICK IN WITH EARNEST MONDAY
THOUGH MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG OFF THE CAPROCK MONDAY MORNING. BUT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN M0NDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PULL EAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE DOWNSLOPE WARMING
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK AT LEAST WILL
BE SOARING INTO RECORD TERRITORY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHILE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE MARCH 23RD RECORD OF 92 AT
CHILDRESS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX TO ABOVE 700
MB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND COULD RAISE WINDS INTO WINDY CATEGORY AT
TIMES FOR NORTHERN ZONES AT LEAST. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO
RESULT NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH A SHOT OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY RESEMBLING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ALSO SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAYS
READINGS. THE WIND MAXIMUM FROM THE WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TO RENEW SURFACE TROUGHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AGAINST THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A BETTER
QUALITY PUSH OF COOL AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT OVERLY GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION OUTPUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH IN THE VICINITY
TO RETAIN A SMALL MENTION FOR SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF AGAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY ANCHORING THE SOUTH END OF A REX BLOCK
AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. BLOCK MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BEYOND
THAT FOR A CLIPPER WAVE TO SEND MORE COOL AIR OUR WAY BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT DRYNESS LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
UNLESS THE OLD CUT-OFF LOW SOMEHOW FINDS A WAY TO CURL BACK
NORTHEAST...THAT SEEMS DOUBTFUL FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS LOOKS A GOOD BET MONDAY FOR AREAS
ON THE CAP-ROCK AND AT LEAST THE PART OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT. 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15
PERCENT FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM CHILDRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH STONEWALL. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
FLOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEEP MIXING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF WINDS MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY...EXPECTED TO EXCEED RECORD LEVELS
ON THE CAP-ROCK...AND ALSO MAY FACTOR INTO FIRE BEHAVIOR. ANYWAY...
USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE BURN PLANS FOR MONDAY AS CONDITIONS MAY
APPROACH RED FLAG LEVELS AT TIMES. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  41  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         78  43  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     79  44  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  43  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  46  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   78  44  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    77  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  49  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  51  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
655
FXUS64 KLUB 220935 CCA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE
IMMEDIATE DEPARTURE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ENOUGH RAIN
FELL TO GREATLY BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LESS OR
NO RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT OF
THE FOG TODAY WITH LESS MIXING IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
TODAY WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...
DRYING AND WARMING STILL EXPECTED TO KICK IN WITH EARNEST MONDAY
THOUGH MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG OFF THE CAPROCK MONDAY MORNING. BUT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN M0NDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PULL EAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE DOWNSLOPE WARMING
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK AT LEAST WILL
BE SOARING INTO RECORD TERRITORY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHILE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE MARCH 23RD RECORD OF 92 AT
CHILDRESS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX TO ABOVE 700
MB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND COULD RAISE WINDS INTO WINDY CATEGORY AT
TIMES FOR NORTHERN ZONES AT LEAST. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO
RESULT NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH A SHOT OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY RESEMBLING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ALSO SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAYS
READINGS. THE WIND MAXIMUM FROM THE WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TO RENEW SURFACE TROUGHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AGAINST THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A BETTER
QUALITY PUSH OF COOL AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT OVERLY GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION OUTPUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH IN THE VICINITY
TO RETAIN A SMALL MENTION FOR SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF AGAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY ANCHORING THE SOUTH END OF A REX BLOCK
AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. BLOCK MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BEYOND
THAT FOR A CLIPPER WAVE TO SEND MORE COOL AIR OUR WAY BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT DRYNESS LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
UNLESS THE OLD CUT-OFF LOW SOMEHOW FINDS A WAY TO CURL BACK
NORTHEAST...THAT SEEMS DOUBTFUL FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS LOOKS A GOOD BET MONDAY FOR AREAS
ON THE CAP-ROCK AND AT LEAST THE PART OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT. 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15
PERCENT FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM CHILDRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH STONEWALL. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
FLOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEEP MIXING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF WINDS MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY...EXPECTED TO EXCEED RECORD LEVELS
ON THE CAP-ROCK...AND ALSO MAY FACTOR INTO FIRE BEHAVIOR. ANYWAY...
USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE BURN PLANS FOR MONDAY AS CONDITIONS MAY
APPROACH RED FLAG LEVELS AT TIMES. RMCQUEEN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  41  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         78  43  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     79  44  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  43  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  46  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   78  44  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    77  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  49  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  51  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
944
FXUS64 KLUB 220935
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
435 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD FOG HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS IN THE
IMMEDIATE DEPARTURE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. ENOUGH RAIN
FELL TO GREATLY BOOST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS BUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FOG WILL DEVELOP WITH LESS OR
NO RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE ROLLING PLAINS WILL BE SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT OF
THE FOG TODAY WITH LESS MIXING IN THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
SURFACE LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD
TODAY WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO VALUES SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...
DRYING AND WARMING STILL EXPECTED TO KICK IN WITH EARNEST MONDAY
THOUGH MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF SHALLOW MOISTURE
AND PERHAPS PATCHY FOG OFF THE CAPROCK MONDAY MORNING. BUT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN M0NDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PULL EAST ENOUGH TO INITIATE DOWNSLOPE WARMING
FOR MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THE CAPROCK AT LEAST WILL
BE SOARING INTO RECORD TERRITORY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...WHILE
MOISTURE TO THE EAST SHOULD KEEP THE MARCH 24TH RECORD OF 92 AT
CHILDRESS SAFE FOR ANOTHER YEAR. ATMOSPHERE WILL MIX TO ABOVE 700
MB DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAP INTO STRONGER FLOW MOVING
OUT OF THE ROCKIES...AND COULD RAISE WINDS INTO WINDY CATEGORY AT
TIMES FOR NORTHERN ZONES AT LEAST. LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY ALSO
RESULT NEAR THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT.

SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WITH A SHOT OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE
MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY RESEMBLING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ALSO SHOULD LOWER A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAYS
READINGS. THE WIND MAXIMUM FROM THE WAVE EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES SHOULD BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY...BUT FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TO RENEW SURFACE TROUGHING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE
WINDS WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME BREEZY
AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AGAINST THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A BETTER
QUALITY PUSH OF COOL AIR SHOULD MOVE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT OVERLY GENEROUS WITH PRECIPITATION OUTPUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH IN THE VICINITY
TO RETAIN A SMALL MENTION FOR SHOWERS. ENERGY WILL CUT-OFF AGAIN
TO OUR SOUTHWEST BRIEFLY ANCHORING THE SOUTH END OF A REX BLOCK
AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
WARMING OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. BLOCK MAY BREAK DOWN ENOUGH BEYOND
THAT FOR A CLIPPER WAVE TO SEND MORE COOL AIR OUR WAY BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEKEND. BUT DRYNESS LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND
UNLESS THE OLD CUT-OFF LOW SOMEHOW FINDS A WAY TO CURL BACK
NORTHEAST...THAT SEEMS DOUBTFUL FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS LOOKS A GOOD BET MONDAY FOR AREAS
ON THE CAP-ROCK AND AT LEAST THE PART OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
ADJACENT TO THE CAP-ROCK ESCARPMENT. 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWER THAN 15
PERCENT FOR ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EASTERN COUNTIES FROM CHILDRESS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH STONEWALL. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WE MAY SEE ENOUGH
FLOW OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH DEEP MIXING
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF WINDS MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA. VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR MONDAY...EXPECTED TO EXCEED RECORD LEVELS
ON THE CAP-ROCK...AND ALSO MAY FACTOR INTO FIRE BEHAVIOR. ANYWAY...
USE CAUTION IF YOU HAVE BURN PLANS FOR MONDAY AS CONDITIONS MAY
APPROACH RED FLAG LEVELS AT TIMES. RMCQUEEN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        78  41  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         78  43  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     79  44  86  46 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     79  43  86  47 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       80  46  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   78  44  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    77  45  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  51  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  49  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     76  51  88  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
310
FXUS64 KLUB 220438 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPPED THE TIMING AND WORDING OF FOG ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AT KLBB AND WE EXPECT THE FOG TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THIS POTENTIAL TO THE
HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS AT KLBB AND
KPVW OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS IS ALSO LIKELY
CENTERED AROUND 11 OR 12 UTC. THE DEGREE AND DURATION OF VSBY AND
CEILING REDUCTIONS IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT KCDS...AND WE HAVE KEPT
MVFR CONDITIONS THERE. VSBYS AND CEILINGS SHOULD LAST UNTIL ABOUT
15 UTC SUNDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE QUICKLY...BUT COULD LINGER TO
16 UTC OR SO. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W-SW SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN SWING BACK TO THE S-SE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

UPDATE...
ONE MORE MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS GIVEN THE RECENT
LATE EVENING RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HIGH-RES NWP GUIDANCE.
NAMELY...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WHILE EXPANDING/INCREASING
THEM OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IT DOES APPEAR THE LIGHT RAIN MAY
LINGER A FEW HOURS PAST 06Z OFF THE CAPROCK AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS THE RAIN COMES TO AN END AND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT IT WILL EXPOSE THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT WINDS...IT STILL
APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE FA AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION IN
THE GRIDS FROM 06-15Z. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS OF CONSEQUENCE WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...WHERE LOW-LEVELS ARE DRIER AND UPWARD FORCING IS WEAKER...WILL
ONLY SEE SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS. THE OVERALL FORECAST
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH WE DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 06Z...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOIST LOW-LEVELS...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG EARLY SUNDAY...AND
WE HAVE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 06-15Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REMAINING GRIDS WERE MADE.
THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT MORE LIKELY AT KLBB...THROUGH
ABOUT 03 UTC. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TONIGHT AND WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS AS WELL AT KLBB AND KPVW. A PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND 12 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS
SUSTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MATURE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEAST BEFORE ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THIS LOW AND STIPPLING OF CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INDICATE NO
SHORTAGE OF LIFT...BUT PRECIP CLOSER TO HOME HAS HAD TO OVERCOME
GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS CENTERED AROUND 700MB WHICH CONTINUES TO
HINDER THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. DESPITE
THIS CONCERN...APPROACH OF DEEPER ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN YOAKUM COUNTY AT 230 PM POINTS TO A SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN S PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR NIL STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
COULD DELIVER SOAKING RAINS TO SOME LOCALES...BUT AMOUNTS OF A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SHOULD BE THE RULE.

FOLLOWING THE PRECIP TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY
WHICH LOOKS TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. HEIGHT FIELDS
AND THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT...WENT WITH MILDER MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIOD OF FORECAST WILL SPAN A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN FOR WEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI ZONAL
SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES LAT SUNDAY IN WAKE OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ZIPPING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW TO W FLOW AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING WARM PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...LIKELY BREAKING SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD HIGH FOR KLBB IS 84...WHICH IS A
LOW OUTLIER COMPARED WITH SURROUNDING DATES. RECORD HIGH AT KCDS
OF 92 WILL PROBABLY STAND...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE THREATENED AS
WELL. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH SUB 15 PERCENT RH AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO MAX OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TUESDAY ESPECIALLY EARLY...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE MITIGATED OVERALL WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AS
SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF NEAR BAJA BY LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT DUE SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK. GFS/ECM DO SUGGEST SOME
MOISTENING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH
ECM CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SOME RAIN SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN BLENDED
SMALL POPS/LIGHT PRECIP NEAR NM BORDER FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE THOSE SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO FADE WITH LATER RUNS.
WEAK NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A NICE POSITIVE BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY WARMER THAN CURRENT BLENDED SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  40  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         64  43  78  46 /   0  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     62  44  79  45 /  10  20   0   0
LEVELLAND     60  43  79  45 /  20  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       62  44  80  47 /  20  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   54  43  78  45 /  50  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  44  77  46 /  60  30   0   0
CHILDRESS     63  50  79  51 /  10  30   0   0
SPUR          61  48  78  51 /  40  80  10   0
ASPERMONT     63  50  78  53 /  60 100  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
562
FXUS64 KLUB 220327 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1027 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ONE MORE MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST POP/WX GRIDS GIVEN THE RECENT
LATE EVENING RADAR TRENDS AND RECENT HIGH-RES NWP GUIDANCE.
NAMELY...HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
ZONES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WHILE EXPANDING/INCREASING
THEM OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IT DOES APPEAR THE LIGHT RAIN MAY
LINGER A FEW HOURS PAST 06Z OFF THE CAPROCK AND WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS ACCORDINGLY. AS THE RAIN COMES TO AN END AND THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT IT WILL EXPOSE THE
MOIST LOW LEVELS. GIVEN THIS AND THE LIGHT WINDS...IT STILL
APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER
MUCH OF THE FA AND WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE PATCHY FOG MENTION IN
THE GRIDS FROM 06-15Z. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS OF CONSEQUENCE WERE
MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...WHERE LOW-LEVELS ARE DRIER AND UPWARD FORCING IS WEAKER...WILL
ONLY SEE SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS. THE OVERALL FORECAST
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH WE DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 06Z...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOIST LOW-LEVELS...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG EARLY SUNDAY...AND
WE HAVE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 06-15Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REMAINING GRIDS WERE MADE.
THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT MORE LIKELY AT KLBB...THROUGH
ABOUT 03 UTC. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TONIGHT AND WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS AS WELL AT KLBB AND KPVW. A PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND 12 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS
SUSTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MATURE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEAST BEFORE ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THIS LOW AND STIPPLING OF CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INDICATE NO
SHORTAGE OF LIFT...BUT PRECIP CLOSER TO HOME HAS HAD TO OVERCOME
GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS CENTERED AROUND 700MB WHICH CONTINUES TO
HINDER THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. DESPITE
THIS CONCERN...APPROACH OF DEEPER ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN YOAKUM COUNTY AT 230 PM POINTS TO A SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN S PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR NIL STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
COULD DELIVER SOAKING RAINS TO SOME LOCALES...BUT AMOUNTS OF A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SHOULD BE THE RULE.

FOLLOWING THE PRECIP TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY
WHICH LOOKS TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. HEIGHT FIELDS
AND THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT...WENT WITH MILDER MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIOD OF FORECAST WILL SPAN A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN FOR WEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI ZONAL
SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES LAT SUNDAY IN WAKE OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ZIPPING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW TO W FLOW AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING WARM PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...LIKELY BREAKING SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD HIGH FOR KLBB IS 84...WHICH IS A
LOW OUTLIER COMPARED WITH SURROUNDING DATES. RECORD HIGH AT KCDS
OF 92 WILL PROBABLY STAND...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE THREATENED AS
WELL. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH SUB 15 PERCENT RH AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO MAX OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TUESDAY ESPECIALLY EARLY...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE MITIGATED OVERALL WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AS
SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF NEAR BAJA BY LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT DUE SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK. GFS/ECM DO SUGGEST SOME
MOISTENING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH
ECM CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SOME RAIN SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN BLENDED
SMALL POPS/LIGHT PRECIP NEAR NM BORDER FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE THOSE SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO FADE WITH LATER RUNS.
WEAK NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A NICE POSITIVE BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY WARMER THAN CURRENT BLENDED SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  77  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  79  45  86 /  20   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  79  45  86 /  20   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  47  88 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  78  45  84 /  20   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    44  77  46  86 /  30   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  79  51  89 /  30   0   0   0
SPUR          48  78  51  88 /  80  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  78  53  88 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
710
FXUS64 KLUB 220022 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
722 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...WHERE LOW-LEVELS ARE DRIER AND UPWARD FORCING IS WEAKER...WILL
ONLY SEE SPRINKLES OR BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS. THE OVERALL FORECAST
HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS...THOUGH WE DID ADJUST POPS UPWARD
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 06Z...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING THE
MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS MOIST LOW-LEVELS...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG EARLY SUNDAY...AND
WE HAVE ADDED A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 06-15Z.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REMAINING GRIDS WERE MADE.
THE UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT MORE LIKELY AT KLBB...THROUGH
ABOUT 03 UTC. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TONIGHT AND WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS AS WELL AT KLBB AND KPVW. A PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND 12 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS
SUSTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MATURE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEAST BEFORE ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THIS LOW AND STIPPLING OF CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INDICATE NO
SHORTAGE OF LIFT...BUT PRECIP CLOSER TO HOME HAS HAD TO OVERCOME
GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS CENTERED AROUND 700MB WHICH CONTINUES TO
HINDER THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. DESPITE
THIS CONCERN...APPROACH OF DEEPER ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN YOAKUM COUNTY AT 230 PM POINTS TO A SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN S PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR NIL STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
COULD DELIVER SOAKING RAINS TO SOME LOCALES...BUT AMOUNTS OF A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SHOULD BE THE RULE.

FOLLOWING THE PRECIP TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY
WHICH LOOKS TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. HEIGHT FIELDS
AND THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT...WENT WITH MILDER MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIOD OF FORECAST WILL SPAN A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN FOR WEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI ZONAL
SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES LAT SUNDAY IN WAKE OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ZIPPING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW TO W FLOW AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING WARM PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...LIKELY BREAKING SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD HIGH FOR KLBB IS 84...WHICH IS A
LOW OUTLIER COMPARED WITH SURROUNDING DATES. RECORD HIGH AT KCDS
OF 92 WILL PROBABLY STAND...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE THREATENED AS
WELL. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH SUB 15 PERCENT RH AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO MAX OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TUESDAY ESPECIALLY EARLY...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE MITIGATED OVERALL WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AS
SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF NEAR BAJA BY LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT DUE SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK. GFS/ECM DO SUGGEST SOME
MOISTENING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH
ECM CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SOME RAIN SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN BLENDED
SMALL POPS/LIGHT PRECIP NEAR NM BORDER FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE THOSE SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO FADE WITH LATER RUNS.
WEAK NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A NICE POSITIVE BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY WARMER THAN CURRENT BLENDED SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  77  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  78  46  87 /  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  79  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  79  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  47  88 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  78  45  84 /  50   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    44  77  46  86 /  30   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  79  51  89 /  20   0   0   0
SPUR          48  78  51  88 /  50  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  78  53  88 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
042
FXUS64 KLUB 220000
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
700 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
-SHRA ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT MORE LIKELY AT KLBB...THROUGH
ABOUT 03 UTC. OTHERWISE...CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE TONIGHT AND WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT VSBY
REDUCTIONS AS WELL AT KLBB AND KPVW. A PERIOD OF IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE CENTERED AROUND 12 UTC. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS
SUSTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
MATURE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEAST BEFORE ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THIS LOW AND STIPPLING OF CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INDICATE NO
SHORTAGE OF LIFT...BUT PRECIP CLOSER TO HOME HAS HAD TO OVERCOME
GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS CENTERED AROUND 700MB WHICH CONTINUES TO
HINDER THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. DESPITE
THIS CONCERN...APPROACH OF DEEPER ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN YOAKUM COUNTY AT 230 PM POINTS TO A SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN S PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR NIL STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
COULD DELIVER SOAKING RAINS TO SOME LOCALES...BUT AMOUNTS OF A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SHOULD BE THE RULE.

FOLLOWING THE PRECIP TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY
WHICH LOOKS TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. HEIGHT FIELDS
AND THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT...WENT WITH MILDER MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIOD OF FORECAST WILL SPAN A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN FOR WEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI ZONAL
SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES LAT SUNDAY IN WAKE OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ZIPPING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW TO W FLOW AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING WARM PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...LIKELY BREAKING SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD HIGH FOR KLBB IS 84...WHICH IS A
LOW OUTLIER COMPARED WITH SURROUNDING DATES. RECORD HIGH AT KCDS
OF 92 WILL PROBABLY STAND...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE THREATENED AS
WELL. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH SUB 15 PERCENT RH AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO MAX OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TUESDAY ESPECIALLY EARLY...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE MITIGATED OVERALL WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AS
SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF NEAR BAJA BY LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT DUE SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK. GFS/ECM DO SUGGEST SOME
MOISTENING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH
ECM CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SOME RAIN SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN BLENDED
SMALL POPS/LIGHT PRECIP NEAR NM BORDER FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE THOSE SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO FADE WITH LATER RUNS.
WEAK NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A NICE POSITIVE BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY WARMER THAN CURRENT BLENDED SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  77  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  78  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  79  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  79  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  47  88 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  78  45  84 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    44  77  46  86 /  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  79  51  89 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          48  78  51  88 /  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  78  53  88 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
931
FXUS64 KLUB 212003
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
303 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...
MATURE UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE DAVIS MTNS WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING NORTHEAST BEFORE ITS DEFORMATION ZONE EXITS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF
THIS LOW AND STIPPLING OF CLOUDS IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE INDICATE NO
SHORTAGE OF LIFT...BUT PRECIP CLOSER TO HOME HAS HAD TO OVERCOME
GREATER MOISTURE DEFICITS CENTERED AROUND 700MB WHICH CONTINUES TO
HINDER THE NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS. DESPITE
THIS CONCERN...APPROACH OF DEEPER ASCENT RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN YOAKUM COUNTY AT 230 PM POINTS TO A SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN S PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING INTO NORTHWEST
TX AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR NIL STEERING FLOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE
COULD DELIVER SOAKING RAINS TO SOME LOCALES...BUT AMOUNTS OF A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SHOULD BE THE RULE.

FOLLOWING THE PRECIP TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY
WHICH LOOKS TO MINIMIZE THE THREAT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IN AN
OTHERWISE MOIST NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. OPTED TO KEEP FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. HEIGHT FIELDS
AND THICKNESSES REBOUND NICELY TOMORROW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
RIDGE. WITH CLEAR SKIES...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT...WENT WITH MILDER MOS HIGH TEMPS FOR
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIOD OF FORECAST WILL SPAN A VERY PLEASANT WEATHER
PATTERN FOR WEST TEXAS. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO QUASI ZONAL
SOUTH OF 40 DEGREES LAT SUNDAY IN WAKE OF WAVE MOVING ACROSS SW
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED LEE SURFACE TROUGHING AND
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ZIPPING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN DEEP SW TO W FLOW AND BREEZY SURFACE
WINDS...PARTICULARLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CLASSIC SPRING WARM PATTERN AND WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S...LIKELY BREAKING SOME
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. RECORD HIGH FOR KLBB IS 84...WHICH IS A
LOW OUTLIER COMPARED WITH SURROUNDING DATES. RECORD HIGH AT KCDS
OF 92 WILL PROBABLY STAND...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE THREATENED AS
WELL. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH SUB 15 PERCENT RH AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

HEIGHT GRADIENTS LOOKS TO MAX OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH RELAXING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. STILL MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES TUESDAY ESPECIALLY EARLY...ALTHOUGH THESE
SHOULD BE MITIGATED OVERALL WITH WINDS DECREASING AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH VALUES.

THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE REGION MID WEEK AS
SOME ENERGY DROPS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF NEAR BAJA BY LATE WEEK. COLD FRONT DUE SOME TIME ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK. GFS/ECM DO SUGGEST SOME
MOISTENING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THURSDAY...WITH
ECM CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SOME RAIN SHOWERS. WILL MAINTAIN BLENDED
SMALL POPS/LIGHT PRECIP NEAR NM BORDER FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY SEE THOSE SMALL CHANCES CONTINUE TO FADE WITH LATER RUNS.
WEAK NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN WE SHOULD SEE A NICE POSITIVE BOUNCE IN
TEMPERATURES...PROBABLY WARMER THAN CURRENT BLENDED SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST. JW
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        40  77  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  78  46  87 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  79  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     43  79  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       44  80  47  88 /  20   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   43  78  45  84 /  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    44  77  46  86 /  20   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  79  51  89 /  10   0   0   0
SPUR          48  78  51  88 /  40  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  78  53  88 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/13
185
FXUS64 KLUB 211759
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1259 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND POSSIBLY IFR AT LBB TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY GENERATING -RA ABOUT 20S-SE LBB. THIS LIGHT PRECIP
SHOULD FALL SHORT OF PVW AND CDS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DISRUPT
VFR AT LBB LATER THIS AFTN. BEHIND THIS PRECIP TONIGHT...MOIST LOW
LEVELS COULD YIELD SOME FOG AT LBB BUT CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS
APPEAR BETTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION. REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY NORTHWARD
EXPANSION TO A N-S AXIS OF RAIN FROM O`DONNELL TO MIDLAND. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 114 AS THE UPPER LOW /NOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND/ BEGINS
MOVING MORE EAST THAN NORTH. POPS TONIGHT MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
RAMPED UP MAINLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKS
TO ASSUME A FAVORABLE TRACK COMPLETE WITH SOME STEADY RAINFALL
RATES.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/13/93
109
FXUS64 KLUB 211643
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION. REGIONAL RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE A CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY NORTHWARD
EXPANSION TO A N-S AXIS OF RAIN FROM O`DONNELL TO MIDLAND. THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS PRECIP MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 114 AS THE UPPER LOW /NOW WEST OF THE BIG BEND/ BEGINS
MOVING MORE EAST THAN NORTH. POPS TONIGHT MAY ALSO NEED TO BE
RAMPED UP MAINLY IN OUR SE COUNTIES AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE LOOKS
TO ASSUME A FAVORABLE TRACK COMPLETE WITH SOME STEADY RAINFALL
RATES.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH HAS SUPPLIED A HEALTHY PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AS IT
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS IS NOT CLEARLY
AS DEFINED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS IT CROSSES OVER WEST TEXAS.
ALSO...WHAT IS LEFT OF IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE
WILL BE A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AROUND THE TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. MID LEVELS
DRIED OUT YESTERDAY BUT TOP DOWN MOISTENING SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR
THIS MORNING. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
SO MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MODEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO FOLLOW FROM THE
WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
WARMER YET FOR SUNDAY AND WE FOLLOW SUITE WITH THIS FORECAST.
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS NOW
MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY
OUT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LEADING TO BREEZY OR LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID OR UPPER
80S MANY AREAS. A MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A SOMEWHAT RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT LIKELY BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A TAD COOLER AIR SEEPING INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER-TYPE DAY...WHILE
UNCLEAR IF WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO REMAIN IN ELEVATED
CATEGORY THOUGH SEEMS MORE PROBABLE EASTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN
ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BUCKLING UPPER FLOW
MAY REINFORCE COOLER AIR BY THURSDAY BUT PATTERN BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A NEW CUT-OFF LOW FORMING NEAR
BAJA. MODIFICATION LOOKS PLAUSIBLE NOW BY FRIDAY. AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT SEEMED SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE YESTERDAY WITH A TROUGH IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CENTERED ON NEXT THURSDAY NOW LOOK MORE
FLEETING. WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES BACK JUST TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY ANTICIPATING POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL MODEL DRYING WITH
LATER RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/13
683
FXUS64 KLUB 211131
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
631 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MAY LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF ALL THE TERMINALS. KLBB
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING ANY LIGHT RAIN. AT THE VERY
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WIDESPREAD FOG MAY DEVELOP BUT IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH HAS SUPPLIED A HEALTHY PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AS IT
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS IS NOT CLEARLY
AS DEFINED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS IT CROSSES OVER WEST TEXAS.
ALSO...WHAT IS LEFT OF IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE
WILL BE A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AROUND THE TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. MID LEVELS
DRIED OUT YESTERDAY BUT TOP DOWN MOISTENING SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR
THIS MORNING. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
SO MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MODEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO FOLLOW FROM THE
WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
WARMER YET FOR SUNDAY AND WE FOLLOW SUITE WITH THIS FORECAST.
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS NOW
MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY
OUT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LEADING TO BREEZY OR LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID OR UPPER
80S MANY AREAS. A MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A SOMEWHAT RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT LIKELY BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A TAD COOLER AIR SEEPING INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER-TYPE DAY...WHILE
UNCLEAR IF WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO REMAIN IN ELEVATED
CATEGORY THOUGH SEEMS MORE PROBABLE EASTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN
ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BUCKLING UPPER FLOW
MAY REINFORCE COOLER AIR BY THURSDAY BUT PATTERN BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A NEW CUT-OFF LOW FORMING NEAR
BAJA. MODIFICATION LOOKS PLAUSIBLE NOW BY FRIDAY. AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT SEEMED SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE YESTERDAY WITH A TROUGH IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CENTERED ON NEXT THURSDAY NOW LOOK MORE
FLEETING. WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES BACK JUST TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY ANTICIPATING POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL MODEL DRYING WITH
LATER RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  40  76  41 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         66  42  78  44 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  43  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  42  78  44 /  30  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  44  79  46 /  30  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  42  77  45 /  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  43  77  46 /  40  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  49  78  50 /  10  20   0   0
SPUR          65  48  78  49 /  40  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  77  50 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
317
FXUS64 KLUB 210840
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH HAS SUPPLIED A HEALTHY PLUME OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN UP AS IT
APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS IS NOT CLEARLY
AS DEFINED IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS IT CROSSES OVER WEST TEXAS.
ALSO...WHAT IS LEFT OF IT HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THERE
WILL BE A NOTABLE ABSENCE OF LOW LEVEL FORCING AROUND THE TIME THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PROVIDES SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. MID LEVELS
DRIED OUT YESTERDAY BUT TOP DOWN MOISTENING SHOULD QUICKLY OCCUR
THIS MORNING. LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL
SO MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY RAPIDLY
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A MODEST UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO FOLLOW FROM THE
WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT
WARMER YET FOR SUNDAY AND WE FOLLOW SUITE WITH THIS FORECAST.
ZONAL FLOW TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH SOLUTIONS NOW
MOVING PACIFIC ENERGY FASTER FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY MONDAY
OUT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY. SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LEADING TO BREEZY OR LOW-END WINDY CONDITIONS
MONDAY ALONG WITH EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID OR UPPER
80S MANY AREAS. A MID LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
WITH A SOMEWHAT RELAXED SURFACE GRADIENT LIKELY BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A TAD COOLER AIR SEEPING INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER-TYPE DAY...WHILE
UNCLEAR IF WINDS TUESDAY WILL BE ADEQUATE TO REMAIN IN ELEVATED
CATEGORY THOUGH SEEMS MORE PROBABLE EASTERN AND/OR SOUTHERN
ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN TIER. BUCKLING UPPER FLOW
MAY REINFORCE COOLER AIR BY THURSDAY BUT PATTERN BECOMES MORE
MUDDLED NOW LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A NEW CUT-OFF LOW FORMING NEAR
BAJA. MODIFICATION LOOKS PLAUSIBLE NOW BY FRIDAY. AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THAT SEEMED SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE YESTERDAY WITH A TROUGH IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST CENTERED ON NEXT THURSDAY NOW LOOK MORE
FLEETING. WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES BACK JUST TO NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THURSDAY ANTICIPATING POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL MODEL DRYING WITH
LATER RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  40  76  41 /  10   0   0   0
TULIA         66  42  78  44 /  10  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     66  43  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     63  42  78  44 /  30  20   0   0
LUBBOCK       65  44  79  46 /  30  20   0   0
DENVER CITY   60  42  77  45 /  60  20   0   0
BROWNFIELD    62  43  77  46 /  40  20   0   0
CHILDRESS     69  49  78  50 /  10  20   0   0
SPUR          65  48  78  49 /  40  40  10   0
ASPERMONT     64  50  77  50 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
276
FXUS64 KLUB 210450
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1150 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF SUB-VFR CIGS/BR TOWARD DAWN...THOUGH
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER ON SATURDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. IN
ADDITION...RAIN SHOWERS COULD THREATEN KLBB FROM THE SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW STILL CHURNING OVER BAJA CA. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR FROM
800-700 MB HAS BEEN ADVECTING SOUTH WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA AND HELPING TO RID US OF STUBBORN
STRATUS. AS THE BAJA LOW MOBILIZES NEWD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RICHER PLUME OF PWATS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF OUR SRN COUNTIES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THE RATE OF
SATURATION PROGGED BY A FEW MODELS FROM 06Z-12Z...SO FEEL PRECIP
STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING OUR AREA THEREAFTER WITH A
SHARP N-S GRADIENT LIKELY AS THIS MOISTENING BATTLES SHARP MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICITS. DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING LOOKS TO UNFOLD
LOCALLY BY SAT AFTERNOON ONCE THE 700MB LOW DRAWS TRACKS ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...SO POPS WERE BUMPED UP EVEN FURTHER TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SOME THUNDER
WAS RETAINED...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH
MINIMAL CAPE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR PRECIP
AND DENSE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
EXITING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED
SKEPTICISM EXPRESSED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT ABOUT NORTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OUR AREA. 12Z RUN OF GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH
OVER AN INCH OF QPF FROM BROWNFIELD UP TO PADUCAH AND FARTHER SOUTH
TO ASPERMONT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
NAM/ECMWF POSITION BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AS A RESULT LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE WHICH HAD LIKELY POPS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

IMPROVING WEATHER IN WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
TO THE WEST BRINGS MILD AND DRY AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE THE OTHERWISE STRONG ZONAL
NORTHERN JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS AT MID 80S WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING
AT ALMOST 90.

DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO APPROACH 90 MID WEEK...WE ARE
LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER TRANSIENT COLD AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. ARCTIC BLASTS ARE MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE IN LATE MARCH THOUGH...WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE PROGGED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
LEAN...BUT EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  63  40  75 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         40  63  43  77 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     41  60  43  76 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     42  54  41  76 /   0  30  10   0
LUBBOCK       43  54  44  77 /   0  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   43  54  41  75 /  10  70  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  54  43  75 /  10  60  10  10
CHILDRESS     47  64  50  78 /   0  10  10  10
SPUR          45  57  47  76 /   0  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     47  60  50  75 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/31/23
212
FXUS64 KLUB 202339
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
639 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
THAT SAID...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LOW CIGS/FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK SATURDAY...BUT THE ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MITIGATE
THIS POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE TOP DOWN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS COULD EVEN IMPACT THE
KLBB TAF SITE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BUT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW STILL CHURNING OVER BAJA CA. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR FROM
800-700 MB HAS BEEN ADVECTING SOUTH WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA AND HELPING TO RID US OF STUBBORN
STRATUS. AS THE BAJA LOW MOBILIZES NEWD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RICHER PLUME OF PWATS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF OUR SRN COUNTIES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THE RATE OF
SATURATION PROGGED BY A FEW MODELS FROM 06Z-12Z...SO FEEL PRECIP
STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING OUR AREA THEREAFTER WITH A
SHARP N-S GRADIENT LIKELY AS THIS MOISTENING BATTLES SHARP MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICITS. DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING LOOKS TO UNFOLD
LOCALLY BY SAT AFTERNOON ONCE THE 700MB LOW DRAWS TRACKS ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...SO POPS WERE BUMPED UP EVEN FURTHER TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SOME THUNDER
WAS RETAINED...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH
MINIMAL CAPE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR PRECIP
AND DENSE CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM...
EXITING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED
SKEPTICISM EXPRESSED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT ABOUT NORTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OUR AREA. 12Z RUN OF GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH
OVER AN INCH OF QPF FROM BROWNFIELD UP TO PADUCAH AND FARTHER SOUTH
TO ASPERMONT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
NAM/ECMWF POSITION BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AS A RESULT LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE WHICH HAD LIKELY POPS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

IMPROVING WEATHER IN WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
TO THE WEST BRINGS MILD AND DRY AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE THE OTHERWISE STRONG ZONAL
NORTHERN JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
ARE CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS AT MID 80S WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING
AT ALMOST 90.

DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO APPROACH 90 MID WEEK...WE ARE
LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER TRANSIENT COLD AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. ARCTIC BLASTS ARE MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE IN LATE MARCH THOUGH...WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE PROGGED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY
LEAN...BUT EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  63  40  75 /   0  10   0   0
TULIA         40  63  43  77 /   0  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     41  60  43  76 /   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     42  54  41  76 /   0  30  10   0
LUBBOCK       43  54  44  77 /   0  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   43  54  41  75 /  10  70  10  10
BROWNFIELD    44  54  43  75 /  10  60  10  10
CHILDRESS     47  64  50  78 /   0  10  10  10
SPUR          45  57  47  76 /   0  40  20  20
ASPERMONT     47  60  50  75 /  10  40  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
858
FXUS64 KLUB 202054
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
354 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF UPPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WELL AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING UPPER
LOW STILL CHURNING OVER BAJA CA. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR FROM
800-700 MB HAS BEEN ADVECTING SOUTH WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY BISECTING THE CWA AND HELPING TO RID US OF STUBBORN
STRATUS. AS THE BAJA LOW MOBILIZES NEWD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...A
RICHER PLUME OF PWATS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF OUR SRN COUNTIES. AM SKEPTICAL OF THE RATE OF
SATURATION PROGGED BY A FEW MODELS FROM 06Z-12Z...SO FEEL PRECIP
STANDS A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING OUR AREA THEREAFTER WITH A
SHARP N-S GRADIENT LIKELY AS THIS MOISTENING BATTLES SHARP MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE DEFICITS. DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING LOOKS TO UNFOLD
LOCALLY BY SAT AFTERNOON ONCE THE 700MB LOW DRAWS TRACKS ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...SO POPS WERE BUMPED UP EVEN FURTHER TO HIGH
CHANCE AND LIKELIES IN OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SOME THUNDER
WAS RETAINED...BUT LAPSE RATES ARE LARGELY MOIST ADIABATIC WITH
MINIMAL CAPE. ONLY OTHER CHANGE OF SIGNIFICANCE WAS TO LOWER MAX
TEMPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR PRECIP
AND DENSE CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...
EXITING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONTINUES TO INDICATE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. HAVE ALSO CONTINUED
SKEPTICISM EXPRESSED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT ABOUT NORTHERN EXTENT OF
PRECIP REACHING THE SOUTHERN HALF OUR AREA. 12Z RUN OF GFS CONTINUES
TO BE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH
OVER AN INCH OF QPF FROM BROWNFIELD UP TO PADUCAH AND FARTHER SOUTH
TO ASPERMONT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A BIT OVERDONE CONSIDERING THE
NAM/ECMWF POSITION BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AS A RESULT LOWERED POPS FROM GUIDANCE WHICH HAD LIKELY POPS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE
AND CHANCE ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

IMPROVING WEATHER IN WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING
TO THE WEST BRINGS MILD AND DRY AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE THE OTHERWISE STRONG ZONAL
NORTHERN JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MAY RESULT IN ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS AT MID 80S WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT
ALMOST 90.

DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO APPROACH 90 MID WEEK...WE ARE
LOOKING AT YET ANOTHER TRANSIENT COLD AIR MASS TO PLUNGE SOUTH OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURSDAY...ARCTIC BLASTS ARE MUCH MORE
TOLERABLE IN LATE MARCH THOUGH...WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE PROGGED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PRETTY LEAN...BUT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/55
806
FXUS64 KLUB 201746
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1246 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS AT LBB ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT TO VFR
AROUND 20Z OR SO AS THE EDGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH. THIS IS ALREADY THE CASE AT PVW AND CDS AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SO THRU 21/18Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING.

LOW THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW STRATUS
TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT EARLIER. THIS
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...THIS WILL KEEP OVERCAST SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE
A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEADING TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA STILL IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY. BUT RECENT TRENDS FROM THE
00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AN EVER SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND SLOWER. AS SUCH...BOTH WRF/NAM AND
GFS WERE DEPICTING DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WE HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS IF THIS IS A VIABLE
TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AS WELL AS IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO AVAIL ITSELF INTO ANY
FORM OF EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESS. THE 06Z WRF/NAM RUN AS
WELL NOW FAVORS PRECIPITATION EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...
THOUGH WE CAUTION AGAINST THE ODD 06Z CHANGES WE FREQUENTLY SEE.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED PART WAY TOWARDS WHAT THESE SOLUTIONS WERE
SHOWING...WITH CHANCE MENTION THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE
SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE FOR THE NEXT MOVE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS EAST EARLY SUNDAY...WEATHERMAN SHOULD
BECOME MORE POPULAR AS FLAT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE SUNDAY IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS
ENERGY EMERGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES PERHAPS WELL INTO THE 80S.

BUT ANOTHER GATHERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF ACROSS
THE BAJA REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH BENDS INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY-ISH...A BIT UNCERTAIN ON TIMING YET...AND PROBABLY
OVERALL DOWNHILL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF CLARITY WITH HOW PRECIPITATION MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY
OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
ARGUE TOO MUCH AGAINST A MINIMAL MENTION NOW CENTERED THURSDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
128
FXUS64 KLUB 201127
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
627 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS WILL MAKE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TODAY. KLBB AND KPVW
WILL BE IN IFR OR NEAR IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH
MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO KCDS BY THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT AT
KLBB AND KPVW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015/

SHORT TERM...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING.

LOW THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW STRATUS
TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT EARLIER. THIS
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...THIS WILL KEEP OVERCAST SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE
A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEADING TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS.

LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA STILL IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY. BUT RECENT TRENDS FROM THE
00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AN EVER SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND SLOWER. AS SUCH...BOTH WRF/NAM AND
GFS WERE DEPICTING DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WE HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS IF THIS IS A VIABLE
TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AS WELL AS IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO AVAIL ITSELF INTO ANY
FORM OF EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESS. THE 06Z WRF/NAM RUN AS
WELL NOW FAVORS PRECIPITATION EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...
THOUGH WE CAUTION AGAINST THE ODD 06Z CHANGES WE FREQUENTLY SEE.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED PART WAY TOWARDS WHAT THESE SOLUTIONS WERE
SHOWING...WITH CHANCE MENTION THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE
SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE FOR THE NEXT MOVE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS EAST EARLY SUNDAY...WEATHERMAN SHOULD
BECOME MORE POPULAR AS FLAT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE SUNDAY IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS
ENERGY EMERGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES PERHAPS WELL INTO THE 80S.

BUT ANOTHER GATHERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF ACROSS
THE BAJA REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH BENDS INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY-ISH...A BIT UNCERTAIN ON TIMING YET...AND PROBABLY
OVERALL DOWNHILL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF CLARITY WITH HOW PRECIPITATION MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY
OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
ARGUE TOO MUCH AGAINST A MINIMAL MENTION NOW CENTERED THURSDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  40  66  40 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         63  41  66  43 /  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  42  66  43 /  10   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     61  43  64  42 /  10   0  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  43  65  44 /  10   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   61  43  60  43 /  10  10  40  30
BROWNFIELD    61  44  61  44 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     66  45  70  49 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          62  45  66  48 /  10   0  30  30
ASPERMONT     61  47  66  50 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
375
FXUS64 KLUB 200917
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL LATE
MORNING. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS MORNING.

LOW THETA-E AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGING SETTLES IN. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW STRATUS
TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW STRATUS MAY STICK AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT EARLIER. THIS
WILL MAKE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TRICKY FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY IN THE PANHANDLE WHERE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT SOONER. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT...THIS WILL KEEP OVERCAST SKIES FROM HIGH
CLOUDS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE
A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY LEADING TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ALOFT OVER WEST TEXAS.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR BAJA STILL IS EXPECTED TO SWING OUT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATE SATURDAY. BUT RECENT TRENDS FROM THE
00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS WERE SHOWING AN EVER SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
TOWARDS SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND SLOWER. AS SUCH...BOTH WRF/NAM AND
GFS WERE DEPICTING DEFORMATION AXIS PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WE HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS IF THIS IS A VIABLE
TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...AS WELL AS IF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO AVAIL ITSELF INTO ANY
FORM OF EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESS. THE 06Z WRF/NAM RUN AS
WELL NOW FAVORS PRECIPITATION EVEN INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES...
THOUGH WE CAUTION AGAINST THE ODD 06Z CHANGES WE FREQUENTLY SEE.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED PART WAY TOWARDS WHAT THESE SOLUTIONS WERE
SHOWING...WITH CHANCE MENTION THROUGH SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE
SATURDAY. WILL ALLOW NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE FOR THE NEXT MOVE.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS EAST EARLY SUNDAY...WEATHERMAN SHOULD
BECOME MORE POPULAR AS FLAT ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE LATE SUNDAY IS
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND MILD ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS
ENERGY EMERGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES PERHAPS WELL INTO THE 80S.

BUT ANOTHER GATHERING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL SPLIT OFF ACROSS
THE BAJA REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT LARGE
SCALE UPPER TROUGH BENDS INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO PASS SOUTHWARD
WEDNESDAY-ISH...A BIT UNCERTAIN ON TIMING YET...AND PROBABLY
OVERALL DOWNHILL TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS NOT A LOT OF CLARITY WITH HOW PRECIPITATION MAY OR MAY NOT PLAY
OUT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WILL NOT
ARGUE TOO MUCH AGAINST A MINIMAL MENTION NOW CENTERED THURSDAY.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  40  66  40 /  10   0  10  10
TULIA         63  41  66  43 /  10   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  42  66  43 /  10   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     61  43  64  42 /  10   0  20  20
LUBBOCK       63  43  65  44 /  10   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   61  43  60  43 /  10  10  40  30
BROWNFIELD    61  44  61  44 /  10  10  30  30
CHILDRESS     66  45  70  49 /  10   0  10  20
SPUR          62  45  66  48 /  10   0  30  30
ASPERMONT     61  47  66  50 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01/05
205
FXUS64 KLUB 200442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS WERE IN PLACE LATE THIS EVENING WELL BEHIND THE
EARLY EVENING FROPA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. IN ADDITION...AS OF 430Z...SCATTERED
SHOWERS WERE ROAMING THE AREA...WITH EVEN A COUPLE OF SMALL
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KPVW. THE STORMS SHOULD BE PAST KPVW BY
06Z...AND THE ODDS THEY PERSIST TO KCDS IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO NO
THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS. HOWEVER...A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 09 TO 12Z BEFORE THEY
COMPLETELY DIMINISH. IN ADDITION...THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THOUGH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT...FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED. KCDS MAY
RETURN VFR BEFORE 12Z...BUT KPVW AND KLBB WILL LIKELY NOT SEE VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING OR EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
AT 230 PM...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED W-SW FROM A SURFACE LOW NEAR
PLAINVIEW TO NEAR DORA IN EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S IN PARMER COUNTY TO UPPER 70S IN STONEWALL COUNTY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SOME BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH THE BROKEN CIRRUS AS THE REMAINING CAP
DWINDLES. WELL TO OUR WEST...CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING PRETTY
QUICKLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL NM HIGHLANDS. THE SPC/RAP 19 UTC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWED A SBCAPE AXIS OF 500-1000 J/KG FROM THE FAR SW
TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED
A 110 KT JET STREAK PASSING OVER THE AREA. WE ARE EXPECTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THIS AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PICK
UP SOME SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM. THE LATEST HIGHER-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS
NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH WITH THE COVERAGE OR INTENSITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER WE STILL THINK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELLS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. FARTHER WEST ON
THE CAPROCK...MORE LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION ON THE
WEAK SIDE...HOWEVER WITH AMBIENT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 MPH OR SO
WITH THE FROPA...DOWNDRAFT GUSTS COULD EASILY REACH 40-45 MPH.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN TO WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM SINKS IN TO NW MX. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO NORTH TEXAS AND MAINTAIN SUBTLE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
ERODE AND THUS THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST WILL BE TRICKY. WE HAVE
INDICATED LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY BE A BIT ON THE
HIGH SIDE IF THE CLOUDS LINGER ON MUCH OF THE DAY.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST. THE
CURRENT UNSETTLED THEME GOVERNED BY SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHS WILL
BREATH ONE FINAL GASP ACROSS WEST TX ON SAT BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW
TRENDS QUIETER AND MORE ZONAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOLLOWING COOL SURFACE RIDGING ON FRIDAY...WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL
ENSUE ON SATURDAY AT WHICH TIME THE BASE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS PROGGED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
MODELS /INCLUDING THE ECM/ ARE TRENDING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THIS TROUGH AND THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN OUR REVISED POPS FOR
SAT. POPS WERE ALSO REDUCED IN DURATION SAT NIGHT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AS THIS WAVE DAMPENS AND ACCELERATES GRADUALLY IN FASTER
WESTERLY FLOW.

HEIGHT FIELDS WILL REBOUND NICELY ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE EFFECTS OF A S/W TROUGH RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NONETHELESS...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
TX PANHANDLE LATE ON SUNDAY BEFORE RETREATING IN RESPONSE TO
PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRACKING TO
OUR NORTH BY TUE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ATOP OUR AREA BY THIS POINT
SPELLS DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS. HOWEVER...THIS MILD THEME APPEARS DOOMED BY MID-LATE WEEK
AS ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS FAVOR L/W RIDGING TAKING AIM
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST INTO ALASKA. THIS CLASSIC PATTERN SPELLS
BLO NORMAL TEMPS FOR OUR REGION INCLUDING A FEW MORE FREEZES FULLY
TYPICAL FOR EARLY SPRING IN THESE PARTS. INITIAL COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE ON/AROUND WED BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WITH A
COLDER REINFORCEMENT ON ITS HEELS SOMETIME LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        37  59  40  67 /  60  10   0  10
TULIA         39  60  41  67 /  60  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     40  61  42  67 /  50  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     41  61  43  67 /  40  10   0  20
LUBBOCK       42  62  43  68 /  50  10   0  20
DENVER CITY   44  60  43  64 /  40  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    44  61  44  65 /  40  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     44  63  45  70 /  70  10   0  10
SPUR          44  61  45  67 /  60  10   0  20
ASPERMONT     47  61  47  65 /  70  20  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07/23

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