Area Forecast Discussion
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114
FXUS64 KLUB 112107
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
307 PM CST THU DEC 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PRETTY MUCH ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL...LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG DEVELOPS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN DISSIPATES BY LATE
AFTERNOON ONLY TO DO THE SAME THING AGAIN THE NEXT DAY.  TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WILL BE NO EXCEPTION.  LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT AERIAL COVERAGE IS LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN THIS TIME THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BY SUNSET
ACROSS ALL BUT THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BUT THEN START TO FILTER
BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE
CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING WITH A RISK OF A RAPID DROP IN
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES.  MULESHOE CRATERED TO JUST BELOW
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT THEN STARTED A SLOW CLIMB AS LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG PUSHED BACK OVER THIS WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE.  HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS SKIES CLEAR OUT A BIT FASTER AND AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY SATURDAY MORNING AS
LIGHT WINDS COUPLED WITH A LLJ OF 15-25 KTS AND DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL ALL AID IN THE
FORMATION OF FOG. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT A MORE W-SW WIND
IMPINGING ON THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE/NW SOUTH PLAINS THUS LEADING TO
THE FILTERING OF DRYER AIR WHICH COULD POSSIBLY MAKE FOG FORMATION A
BIT MORE DIFFICULT THERE. DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...UA RIDGING WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD WHILST SFC LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS A BIT...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UA
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE NEARING THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTN. AS SUCH...INTERMITTENT S-SW BREEZES AND TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE
NORM /60S AND 70S/ WILL OCCUR. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA DISTURBANCE WILL BE NEARING THE
PANHANDLE REGION. MOISTENING LOW LEVELS AND THE LLJ RAMPING UP TO
25-35 KTS MAY ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH...NOT TO
SURE HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE GIVEN DEEPENING SFC LEE TROUGHING
WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. CONCURRENTLY...
INCREASING UL SUPPORT WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 0.50-1.10 INCHES
/HIGHEST PWATS OFF THE CAPROCK/ WILL LEAD TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...COMMENCING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTN. AS THE UA DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES...ITS PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE CWA...HENCE CAUSING DRYING CONDITIONS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A
COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE REGION WHICH WILL PROMOTE 850 MB TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE. WITH THE DISTURBANCE/S ANTICIPATED TRACK BEING CONSISTENT
FOR THE LAST FEW MODEL RUN ITERATIONS...THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE/WINTRY PRECIP TO AFFECT THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE IS
LOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...NRLY WINDS AND NEARBY SFC RIDGING WILL LEAD TO
COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT INTO THE 50S. ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS VEER TO THE S-SE BY MID-WEEK...THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORM. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE HOWEVER...THAT WITH THE RETURN OF THE UPSLOPE
WIND COMPONENT BY MID-WEEK...PWATS WILL GRADUALLY CREEP UP TO NEAR
1.00 INCH ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER PACIFIC
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE BAJA OF CALI TO ACROSS NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK ATTM. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT
AT LIGHT QPF SIGNALS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTN. IT IS
TOO SOON TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT THIS TRACK WILL REMAIN THE SAME IN
THE COMING DAYS...SO THE ANALYZING OF FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR
CONSISTENCY WILL BE HIGHLY DESIRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        38  69  40  68  40 /   0   0   0   0  30
TULIA         45  68  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  10  30
PLAINVIEW     43  67  44  69  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
LEVELLAND     42  68  45  71  44 /   0   0   0  10  40
LUBBOCK       46  68  47  70  47 /   0   0   0  10  40
DENVER CITY   46  69  45  70  43 /   0   0   0  10  40
BROWNFIELD    46  68  46  70  46 /   0   0   0  10  40
CHILDRESS     43  67  50  71  51 /  10   0  10  10  30
SPUR          52  67  50  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     55  69  53  70  50 /  10  10   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29

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