Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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956
FXUS64 KLUB 301500 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO REMOVE THE MORNING FOG MENTION. THE COLD
FRONT IS PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA AT 10 AM. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT BUT WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MIDDAY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME PATCHY STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE MUCH OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FINALLY...TSTM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED TO A SLIVER ACROSS SRN STONEWALL COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
STRATUS/FOG THUS FAR HAS BEEN A NO-SHOW WHERE IT HAS BEEN EXPECTED...
MAINLY JUST WEST OR NORTHWEST OF KLBB. HIGH RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS
STILL INDICATE FOG AND/OR A VERY LOW STRATUS LAYER FORMING ANYTIME
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW FILLING INTO
SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SWEEP OUT THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE AND DRY/VFR WILL BECOME
DOMINANT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING JUST TO OUR WEST
SENDING A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE DISTURBANCE PAST US MOSTLY TO OUR EAST
AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. FAIRLY
STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH FEW MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS.

HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE A MODERATELY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR-MASS IN PLACE
THAT COULD YET BE PRONE TO PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
HRRR-NCEP VERSION AND RAP SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS ARE MOST BULLISH
INDICATING SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING FAVORING
WESTERN/SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WITH PATCHY FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT QUITE INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLE YET SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE PATCHY FOG POSSIBILITY
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEW MEXICO LINE EARLY THIS MORNING.

THIS FRONT WILL SHOVE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE
MORNING BUT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR
AREA...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ASPERMONT. WE HAVE ADDED LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER THIS AREA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER IN MOST RECENT SHORT
TERM SOLUTIONS IN SPITE OF A FAIRLY EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE INITIAL PUSH WILL BE SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT
FULL AFTERNOON SUN AND MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW HIGHS TO BOUNCE UP
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED LIKEWISE
WITH MOST HIGHS UP A NOTCH FROM PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED LEVELS. BUT A
COOLER AIR-MASS INDEED WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY BRISK NORTHEAST BREEZES TO 15 MPH. AND THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLIER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS PERHAPS DIPPING CLOSE
TO FREEZING ACROSS OUR HIGHER NORTHWEST ZONES...THOUGH MOST
SOLUTIONS NOT PERVASIVE ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO CONSIDER A FREEZE OR
FROST HIGHLIGHT FOR FRIDAY MORNING. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
NO WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THIS ITERATION OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST...AS THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE
IMPENDING RAIN EVENT DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
BIASES.

BEFORE WE GET TO THE GOOD STUFF THOUGH...THERE ARE A FEW MORE MINOR
ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE WEEKEND...THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WITH ORIGINS IN CENTRAL CANADA WILL
SNEAK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER LOW RAPIDLY DIVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AS A
RESULT...EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES WILL FLIRT WITH THE FREEZING
MARK...WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR FOR THAT AREA. AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THOUGH...HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
THIS FREEZE FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL LIKEWISE BE COOL...WITH A WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE AS LEE TROUGHING SHAPES UP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THE MUCH BALLEYHOOED APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO STICK TO
THEIR RESPECTIVE GUNS REGARDING THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THIS
SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST OPERATIONAL ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE BOTH
SLOWED THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER AND DEEPER SOLUTION...AND AS A
RESULT THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DEVELOPS
NEGLIGIBLE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF ROUGHLY A WOODWARD OK TO
LOVINGTON NM LINE. IN ANY CASE THOUGH...THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD TO
SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...AND DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES THE ROLLING
PLAINS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE HEAVY RAIN IN
OUR AREA. SO...OPTED TO NUDGE POPS NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY MONDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...AND OTHERWISE
MAINTAINED THE CURRENT DEPICTION OF HIGH END CHC POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE IT
CERTAINLY APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS REGION WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL SOMETIME DURING THIS PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON GETTING
TOO SPECIFIC AND BULLISH WITH POPS UNTIL BETTER GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
IS REACHED. BY LATE TUESDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR SHOULD CLEAR
THINGS OUT...MAKING FOR A LIKELY DRY MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS STAGE THOUGH...AS AGAIN MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING MIGHTILY WITH THE EASTWARD EJECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THE REGION COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IF THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS PAN OUT. TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LIKELY BE AMONG THE COOLEST OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  34  61  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         72  38  60  33  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  39  60  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     73  37  62  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       74  40  63  36  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   74  40  63  38  66 /   0  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    74  41  63  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     76  43  63  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          77  42  63  37  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     80  44  65  37  65 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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