Area Forecast Discussion
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322
FXUS64 KLUB 162052
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
352 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF MLCAPE DEVELOPING FROM
THE WRN OKLA PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS AND THEN
BENDING EWD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNNING SOUTH
NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE IS INCREASING CONVERGENCE IN THIS AREA AND
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN SOME INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN LEA
COUNTY. UPPER-LVL NW FLOW IS STILL RATHER WEAK OVERHEAD...BUT
STRONGER WINDS ARE UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WAVE IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN NM. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT
WE WILL SEE IN THE AXIS RUNNING IN-BETWEEN NRN AND SE NM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT WE DO EXPECT THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. WE ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUR SE COUNTIES...WHICH
LIE JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WILL
FAVOR MORE PULSE TYPE STORMS INITIALLY...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
THIS EVENING...WE EXPECT THE STORMS IN NE NM AND THE WRN PANHANDLE
TO ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR COMPLEX AND PROPAGATE SEWD. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK AND EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX. IN GENERAL...THE HIGHER RES MODELS FAVOR A MORE WWD
PATH/EXTENT...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE FAVORS A MORE NEWD TRACK
ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OKLA...SKIRTING THE FAR SRN
PANHANDLE AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS. WE CAN/T REALLY RULE OUT EITHER
CASE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT THERE WILL BE A
COMPLEX AND THAT IT WILL IMPACT A PORTION OF OUR CWA...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE/MOST IMPACT LIKELY TO BE ACROSS OUR NRN COUNTIES. WE
EXPECT SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS COMPLEX AS PWAT VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH AND THE SRLY LLJ WILL PROVIDE MOIST INFLOW. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS POCKETS OF 3 INCHES
OR MORE. THERE MAY ALSO BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD AND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COMPLEX...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE RAINFALL. THE
REGION OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME WILL BE ALONG THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT IN BRISCOE COUNTY...INCLUDING CAPROCK CANYONS...AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING EWD ALONG THE WASHES AND RIVERBEDS FEEDING INTO
THE RED RIVER. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COMPLEX SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...AND A COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND IT...PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A COOLER AIRMASS AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE AREA
PRETTY STABLE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
RAIN GOING ACROSS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL ZONE.
HIGH THU WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S NORTH...WITH LOW 80S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
BY TOMORROW EVENING...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE COMPLETELY PASSED THROUGH BOTH THE SOUTH AND ROLLING
PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  WHILE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW THE WAVE PASSAGE AND NOW MAINTAIN SOME LINGERING
ELEVATED POST-FRONTAL CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CEASED ACROSS THE LUB
CWA BEYOND 00Z DUE TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED SCHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS BEYOND 00Z TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE A FEW UPSLOPE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN NM BEFORE
COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.

BEYOND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS A
VERY STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND PERHAPS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN
ORIGINALLY DEPICTED IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTION. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BE BAD NEWS FOR THE REGION FOR TWO REASONS...AS RAIN CHANCES
WOULD BE VERY HARD TO COME BY UNDER THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE...AND
TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY SOAR. IN FACT...SHOULD THE MORE DRASTIC
SCENARIO PLAY OUT IN WHICH THE CORE OF THIS UPPER RIDGE MOVES
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY EASILY REACH INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. CONSIDERING THAT THIS SHIFT IN
THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY DRASTIC FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT...WILL
HOLD OFF ON INCREASING TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE THE ALREADY WARM
CURRENT FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. AS
FOR RAIN CHANCES...OPTED TO LEAVE SCHC MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS FOR SATURDAY EVENING...AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE AND AN
INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. SHOULD
THIS TREND CONTINUE THOUGH...THIS MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  75  60  82  64 /  70  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  75  60  78  64 /  80  30  10   0  10
PLAINVIEW     64  76  60  79  65 /  70  30  10   0  10
LEVELLAND     65  82  59  82  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  81  61  82  68 /  60  30  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  87  62  83  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    68  85  60  81  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     64  78  64  81  67 /  90  70  10  10  10
SPUR          68  82  62  82  67 /  60  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  84  65  85  70 /  60  60  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ023>026.

&&

$$

33/16

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