Area Forecast Discussion
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864
FXUS64 KLUB 261727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
SNOW BASICALLY AT AN END WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES LINGERING.
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS NEAR 1200 FT AGL ON THE CAPROCK MAY AFFECT
KPVW AND KLBB EARLY AFTN BUT PREVAILING CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
5KFT AGL. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT.
THIS NEXT ONE LOOKS TO A BIT STRONG THAN THIS MORNINGS WITH A GOOD
6 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW OF SNOWFALL AFFECTING KPVW AND KLBB BY 09Z AND
KCDS TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW END MVFR /IF NOT IFR/ VSBY AND CIG COMBO
LIKELY WITH THE ACCUMLATING SNOWFALL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THIS SNOW EVENT IS WINDING DOWN SLOWLY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AND FLURRIES ALL THAT REMAIN. ALL MODELS HANG ONTO SOME LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL NOON THEN ARE DRY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
DECREASED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND KEPT PRECIP
MENTION OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MESSY START TO THE MORNING WITH A BAND OF SNOW OCCASIONALLY MIXED
WITH RAIN AT KLBB WHILE KPVW AND KCDS ARE MOSTLY DRY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT KLBB ARE IN THE IFR RANGE WHILE KPVW IS MVFR AND
KCDS IS VFR. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END LATE THIS MORNING AT KLBB
WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. KPVW SHOULD TRANSITION TO AND KCDS REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
TONIGHT. EXPECT A DECREASE BACK INTO MVFR RANGE AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES AFTER SUNSET WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME AND
IMPACT KLBB AND KPVW AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME SO EXPECT SOME
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE SNOWFALL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...WET BULB EFFECT HAS HELPED TO RAPIDLY
DROP TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  NWS
OFFICE STATION SAW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS BUT THE RATE OF COOLING INCREASED DRAMATICALLY
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0930 UTC AS PRECIPITATION STARTED TO MOVE OVER THE
STATION.  RAPID TRANSITION TO SNOW HAS TAKEN PLACE AND EXPECT THIS
TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE
PRECIPITATION BAND SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH.  RAIN/SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A
RESULT OF STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE HELPING TO MOISTEN
THE COLUMN FROM TOP DOWN.  ALSO HELPING WAS STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALTHOUGH THIS WAS SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH
WITH TIME.  WITH SUCH STRONG FORCING...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AREAS OF
LOCALIZED 1 INCH AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS WHERE REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN THE HIGHEST
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SEES UNDER ONE INCH.  WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO EXPEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SOUTH AND EAST BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF OR MOVE SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY NOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY WITH THE MODELS TRYING TO DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OVERCAST CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
BECOMING CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. USUALLY IN THESE SITUATIONS...WE SEE
LOW OVERCAST DECK REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AS UPSLOPE SURFACE
FLOW HELPS TO KEEP SOME WEAK TOPOGRAPHIC LIFT IN PLACE.  WITH DRY
AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON...HARD TO TELL WHAT WILL HAPPEN.  WE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
KEEP CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY WHICH WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.  TRENDED TOWARDS THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS...THE FREEZING MARK RUNNING ALONG A LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...
TURKEY...TO CHILDRESS LINE...AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH OF THAT LINE.
IF WE DO INDEED CLEAR OUT...THAT MAY BE TOO COOL OF A FORECAST AS
SOME SUNSHINE WILL HELP TO OFFSET CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
ANOTHER ONE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  ONCE AGAIN...MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 700 AND 600 HPA WHICH
WILL MOISTEN THE COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN.  STRONG LIFT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME LAYER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP PRECIPITATION.  ADD IN STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES WELL BELOW FREEZING AND THE SETUP LOOKS TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  MOST FAVORED AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
DEVELOP IN A SATURATED DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE.  FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS LUBBOCK...STRONGEST LIFT APPEARS TO BE JUST BELOW THE GROWTH
ZONE SO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY TAPER OFF PRETTY DRASTICALLY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.  ANY SNOWFALL BANDS OR SHIFT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS 50 MILES NORTH OR SOUTH WILL CHANGE THE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
LASTLY...THE MOST FAVORED TIME FOR SNOWFALL APPEARS TO START AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.  WITH
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS FROZEN ONCE IT HITS THE SURFACE.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER WE ARE IMMERSED IN WILL CONTINUE ON
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY
BY 12Z FRIDAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
INTO THE THE EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE DEEPEST
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK SHALLOW LIFT...NEAR
SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COULD STILL YIELD
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. IN ADDITION...WIND CHILL VALUES
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO...MODERATING INTO THE 5-15 DEGREE RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINTRY END TO THE
WEEK. THE SNOW EVENT LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NEED AN
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST/ALL OF THE CWA...THOUGH
WE ARE GOING TO DEFER THIS UNTIL WE FINISH WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF
SNOW AFFECTING THE SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. REGARDING
AMOUNTS...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FA SHOULD SEE A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1-
3 INCHES...WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE 4 INCH
THRESHOLD. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE N/NW
ZONES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SW SOUTH PLAINS.

ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RACE BY ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP LIFT
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. STILL...LOW LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE PROSPECTS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES...BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY MODERATE. THESE WARMING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE /LIGHT SLEET...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE/ AS TEMPERATURE WARM QUICKEST ALOFT.
EVENTUALLY ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD MOVE IN AT GROUND LEVEL TO SWITCH
THE PRECIPITATION TO A COLD RAIN/DRIZZLE BY LATE SATURDAY...THOUGH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ZONES INTO EARLY SUNDAY. OVERALL...ANY ADDITIONAL SN/PL/FZDZ AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT THEY COULD STILL CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES INITIALLY IN PLACE.

THE WARMER AIR MAY BRIEFLY WIN OUT ON SUNDAY...THOUGH EVEN THIS IS
IN QUESTION...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE REGION
SOMETIME SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO ACCEPT THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BLENDED GUIDANCE UNTIL THE TIMING OF THE FRONT CAN BE
BETTER RESOLVED. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS
NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS NOT PROJECTED
TO BE AS COLD AS THE ONE CURRENTLY INVADING...BUT IT COULD STILL
DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE FREEZING MARK...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
NORTH...AND BRING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE.

EVENTUALLY...DRIER/WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE PROGGED TO WIN OUT
BY TUESDAY AS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STORM SYSTEM EJECTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
WARM TO OR EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE...THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COME WITH
GUSTY WINDS TOO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE EJECTING
WAVE...THOUGH WHETHER OR NOT IT MAKES HEADWAY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
IS STILL SUBJECT TO DEBATE. REGARDLESS...THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RELOAD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE...IN ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER...ON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS DEFINITELY A
FUN AND CHALLENGING TIME TO BE A METEOROLOGIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        28  10  20  15 /  50  80  70  30
TULIA         29  10  20  16 /  40  70  80  30
PLAINVIEW     30  12  21  18 /  50  60  80  30
LEVELLAND     32  13  23  19 /  40  50  60  30
LUBBOCK       32  13  22  18 /  50  50  70  30
DENVER CITY   34  16  24  21 /  30  40  40  30
BROWNFIELD    34  15  24  20 /  50  40  50  30
CHILDRESS     33  15  22  19 /  20  40  80  30
SPUR          34  15  22  20 /  60  30  70  30
ASPERMONT     35  17  24  22 /  60  20  70  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

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