Area Forecast Discussion
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328
FXUS64 KLUB 161602 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1102 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE COMPLETED A MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST SEVERAL OF THE GRIDDED
FIELDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
LIGHT BUT SOMEWHAT CHAOTIC SURFACE WINDS /MOSTLY WESTERLY TO
NORTHERLY/ WERE IN PLACE AS OF 15Z...IN THE WAKE OF A GOOD SURGE
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE THAT WAS NOW SHIFTING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. THIS MOISTURE AND AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
WAS GENERATING A FEW SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED STORM
ARCHING FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN...WITH A LIGHT DIMINISHING BAND OF ELEVATED SHOWERS ALSO
NOTED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVERGENT 850 MB FLOW. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
RESIDE OUTSIDE OF THE FA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL AS TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...WE DID MAINTAIN A SLIM SHOWER MENTION FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE WILL RENEWED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION FIRE? IT APPEARS A WEAKLY CONVERGENT SURFACE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SETUP SOMEWHERE NEAR OR IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES...AND THIS COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
FIRE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NM AS WELL AS THE
WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES /AIDED BY A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE/. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE DIRECTED SOUTHWARD AND
WILL AFFECT OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. PWATS
WILL BE DOWN SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY...THOUGH STILL RESPECTABLE
AOA 1 INCH...AND COULD SUPPORT A FEW LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. IN
ADDITION...A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL FAVOR GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH ANY STRONGER PRECIPITATION CORES. WE DID RECONFIGURE
POPS SLIGHTLY...WHILE MAINTAINING A SCATTERED MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST/WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FA WHERE FORCING IS LESS CERTAIN.
THE UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EXISTS AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AND HAS NOT BEEN
INCLUDED IN THIS TAF CYCLE BUT THE TAFS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS
THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE ROLLING
PLAINS. SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NM MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CURRENTLY TO OUR WEST. SHOWER
COVERAGE WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE LESS THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
BULK OF THE ENERGY WITH THE WAVE WILL BE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE BEST
COVERAGE CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FA
AS A LINGERING SURFACE TROF STAYS IN THE AREA. ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL LIFT
WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER
NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY
AVERAGING AROUND THE MID 90S ON THE CAPROCK WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR
100 OFF THE CAPROCK.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED THIS FCST PACKAGE AS UPPER HIGH
CONTINUES OUT NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILST UPPER HIGH SLOWLY MOVES BACK IN OUR
DIRECTION. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT MORE CLEAR THAN LAST NIGHT
THOUGH BEYOND TUESDAY SOLUTIONS DIFFER AS THE ECM EJECTS THE
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WHEREAS THE GFS HANGS IT OUT WEST.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL CONTINUE TRENDS OF DRYING THINGS NEXT WEEK
ALONG WITH SLOWLY INCREASING TEMPS. STORMS MAY APPROACH OUR
WESTERN ZONES LATE NEXT WEEK BUT WILL KEEP POPS SILENT FOR NOW AS
DYNAMICS REMAIN QUITE WEAK WITH HIGH MODEL SPREAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  64  94  64  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
TULIA         92  66  95  65  95 /  20  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     91  66  94  65  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     92  66  95  65  95 /  20  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  69  95  69  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   93  66  94  65  94 /  20  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    93  66  95  66  95 /  20  30  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     98  72 100  71  99 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          95  68  95  67  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72  98  70  99 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/07

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