Area Forecast Discussion
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935
FXUS64 KLUB 250952
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/05

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