Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Graphics & Text | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
630
FXUS64 KLUB 302321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE LIKELY
TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MINOR OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS SFC AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS RICH. WILL KEEP BOTH TAFS UNRESTRICTED ATTM.
FINALLY...LEE SFC TROUGH TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND BROAD UA TROUGHING IMPINGING ON
THE NW PACIFIC...HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
CO/NRN NM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO ACROSS THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
SINCE WANED. THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH S-SE SFC FLOW AND
PWATS OF 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE AIDING IN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OF THE CWA IN CURRY
COUNTY. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS EVENING...DOES RAISE
CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS TO POSSIBLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS /GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL GIVEN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIP MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SERN TX
PANHANDLE AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS ESEWRD OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. TOMORROW...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN COURTESY OF THE BROAD UA TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS SUCH...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN A BIT...LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20 MPH/. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MORE SO ACROSS THE
ERN PANHANDLES. A CAPPING INVERSION IS APPARENTLY MAINTAINING A GRIP
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...THUS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPEEDING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY IN BROAD
BUT WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE... WITH SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREEMENT BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP NEAR OR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRYING STILL LOOK TOO PRONOUNCED
FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON LABOR DAY...AND WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL THOUGH WEAKER
SHOVE BY AN EVEN SHALLOWER WAVE RIPPLING TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...WE WILL CONTINUE SIDING WITH THE GENERAL STRONG WARM-UP
THAT WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...IE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL COOL PUSH AT THIS POINT. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DEEP
MOISTURE UNABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THOUGH SOME AMOUNT OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. FOR THE XTH DAY IN A
ROW...THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE PROXIMITY. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND HAVE RETAINED SUB-
MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW MAY LEAN CLOSER TO OUR AREA AT SOME POINT
LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  96  64  96  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  96  66  97  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  96  66  97  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  97  70  99  70 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  98  67  99  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70 100  73 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  73 100  74 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.