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508
FXUS64 KLUB 010840
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
340 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY
WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED WESTERLIES DOMINATING MUCH OF THE
CONUS...INCLUDING SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE IT WAS PROVIDING
THE IMPETUS FOR CONVECTION FROM THE LAND OF 10,000 LAKES THROUGH THE
SUNFLOWER STATE. MORE JET ENERGY WAS ALSO NOTED RACING OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THIS
EVENING WHERE IT WILL HELP DRIVE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG A
SLOW-MOVING FRONT LINGERING IN THE PLAINS. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT/FORCING WILL BE FOCUSED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY...WHERE THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE.

HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SINKING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AS
OF 08Z. A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND
BEGINS LOOSING DEFINITION WHILE A THERMAL LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS. DRY WESTERLY BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ON THE CAPROCK AND COUPLED
WITH STRONG INSOLATION IT WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER HOT DAY. IT APPEARS
THE RECORD AT LUBBOCK /99 DEGREES...LAST TOUCHED LAST YEAR/ WILL
AGAIN BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH MANY SPOTS AGAIN EXPERIENCING HIGHS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY
BE THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE DECAYING FRONT AND LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE WINDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S.

THERE IS ALSO SOME CONCERN THE STRONG HEATING/THERMALS MAY BE ABLE
TO BREACH THE CAP WHERE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF THE LINGERING FRONT AND TIGHTENING DRYLINE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS NOT VERY HIGH...BUT A LITTLE GREATER THAN
YESTERDAY...SUPPORTED BY SEVERAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS SHOWING
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. HENCE...WE HAVE ELECTED TO
INCLUDE A LOW CONDITIONAL STORM MENTION IN THE FORECAST FROM
21-06Z...PRIMARILY FOR BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES. IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP...0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH SBCAPES
OF 1500+ J/KG COULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...THOUGH THE
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL THEN LIKELY
MATERIALIZE LATER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET...BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO BE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. INSTEAD...MOIST SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL DELIVER
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT LOCALLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE FINAL DAY OF ACUTE WARMTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH HIGHS NEAR 100F AGAIN IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE NW CWA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. WED AND THU SHOULD
BRING PRETTY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL TX...WITH OUR CWA ON THE WRN PERIPHERY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE /POSSIBLY TIED
TO A TROPICAL WAVE/ UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOW STRATUS INVADING FROM THE SOUTH AS EARLY AS WED MORNING.
BUT LACK OF ANY LIFT SHOULD KEEP POPS VERY LOW DESPITE THE
INCREASING LOW-LVL MOISTURE. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND
AND SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE ECMWF IS STILL DEVELOPING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THE
INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A RICH SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...INCLUDING A POSSIBLE ENHANCEMENT BY A TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEAR SRN BAJA...AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
AREA PROVIDING A LOW-LVL FOCUS. THE 00 UTC GFS IS MORE PESSIMISTIC
/IN CONTRAST TO IT/S PREVIOUS 12 UTC RUN/. ALTHOUGH IT HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE PROJECTION FROM 24 HOURS AGO OF
STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD...IT KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND THE
DEEP SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THE BETTER
CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF PROG...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD IT AND HAVE
CONTINUED THE TREND OF HIGHER POPS AND LOWER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        97  62  91  63  92 /   0  10  10  10  10
TULIA         98  66  94  66  93 /  10  10  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     98  67  95  67  93 /  10  10  10  20   0
LEVELLAND    100  67  96  66  93 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK      101  70  96  70  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
DENVER CITY  101  67  97  66  92 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD   102  68  97  66  93 /  10  10  10  10   0
CHILDRESS    101  74  98  72  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR         100  71  97  72  95 /  10  10  10  10   0
ASPERMONT    101  73  98  74  96 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
185
FXUS64 KLUB 312328
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
628 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON MOST OF THE WRN CONUS LATE
THIS AFTN...THUS CAUSING THE ONCE AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS TO FLATTEN...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LOCALLY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...WAS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH THAT WAS DRAPED FROM SERN
CO SSW ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
THEREFORE TIGHTENED A BIT LEADING TO BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS PER 20Z
METARS /15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 20-30 MPH/. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...HAS RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU-FIELD
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FA DUE TO
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES AND
ROLLING PLAINS LOCALES...COULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WRT SHOWING PRECIP
NEARING THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...JUST IN CASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN DEPICTED. IF STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND SBC
OF AOA 1.5 KJ/KG. HENCE...STORMS APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TOUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION
WHILST THE SFC TROUGH RELAXES...THUS CREATING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY GIVEN A 40-45 KT LLJ/. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. FOR LABOR
DAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AND PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...THANKS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS/. IN FACT...A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES AT KLBB
WILL TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2013 IF IT INDEED COMES INTO FRUITION.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SHARPENING OF A DRYLINE GENERALLY
DRAPED FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE TO MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THE LOCATION OF WHERE
THE FRONT MEETS THE DRYLINE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AREA OF CONCERN TO BE ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...VERSUS JUST EAST OF THE FA PER THE GFS. THE BEST 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ AND SBC /2.5-3.5 KJ/KG/ WILL BE SITUATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING...BUT A WATCHFUL EYE WILL STILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

LONG TERM...
THE LATEST RUNS STILL SUPPORT EARLIER TRENDS WITH THE FRONT HOLDING
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING...AND A TRIPLE POINT
ALONG THE DRY-LINE FRONT INTERSECTION PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. BUT THIS IS A NEAR ENOUGH CALL TO JUSTIFY A LOW MENTION FOR
THUNDER NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT WHILE SHEAR A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH
CONSIDERATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BUT SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME CLOSE RADAR VIEWING INTO THE EVENING. FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURGING WEAKLY SOUTH AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIPPLE MAY EMERGE THEN IN MODEST ZONAL
FLOW...AND COMBINE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TUESDAY. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO A MENTIONABLE
THUNDER CHANCE FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES PROBABLY BEST NEAR CAPROCK RIM.
UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A DRY STABLE OUTCOME EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARM SIDE. IN FACT MOST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK. VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND A WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE AS YET
UNSURE IF A SOLID MONSOONAL TAP WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF BAJA
COULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE HAVE EDGED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
MENTIONABLE ZONE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TAPERING
HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOPING JUST TO
LATCH ONTO THE CORRECT TREND FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  97  67  94  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  98  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  98  67  95  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  97  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  98  67  96  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64 100  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          67 100  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 100  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
066
FXUS64 KLUB 312025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD UA TROUGH CONTINUED TO IMPINGE ON MOST OF THE WRN CONUS LATE
THIS AFTN...THUS CAUSING THE ONCE AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS TO FLATTEN...IN ADDITION TO PROMOTING NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
LOCALLY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...WAS NEARING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTN...RESULTING IN A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH THAT WAS DRAPED FROM SERN
CO SSW ACROSS THE WRN SOUTH PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
THEREFORE TIGHTENED A BIT LEADING TO BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS PER 20Z
METARS /15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 20-30 MPH/. WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE
ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...HAS RESULTED IN AN AGITATED CU-FIELD
NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND CNTRL SOUTH PLAINS. THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP ACROSS THE FA DUE TO
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE AND AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. BY THIS
EVENING...ONCE THE SFC TROUGH MOVES TO ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLES AND
ROLLING PLAINS LOCALES...COULD SEE PRECIP DEVELOP MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THE NAM IS MOST BULLISH WRT SHOWING PRECIP
NEARING THE FAR SERN TX PANHANDLE. WILL STILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...JUST IN CASE THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP IS WEAKER THAN DEPICTED. IF STORMS ARE CAPABLE
OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS AND SBC
OF AOA 1.5 KJ/KG. HENCE...STORMS APPROACHING STRONG LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TOUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED WELL NE OF THE REGION
WHILST THE SFC TROUGH RELAXES...THUS CREATING LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS
/ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BREEZY GIVEN A 40-45 KT LLJ/. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. FOR LABOR
DAY...HOT CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AND PERHAPS BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TODAY...THANKS TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN PROGGED 850 MB
TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGIT READINGS/. IN FACT...A FORECAST HIGH OF 99 DEGREES AT KLBB
WILL TIE THE RECORD SET IN 2013 IF IT INDEED COMES INTO FRUITION.
ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE SHARPENING OF A DRYLINE GENERALLY
DRAPED FROM THE SERN TX PANHANDLE TO MEMPHIS TO TAHOKA. WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THE LOCATION OF WHERE
THE FRONT MEETS THE DRYLINE WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE AREA OF CONCERN TO BE ACROSS THE ERN AND SERN TX
PANHANDLE. THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...VERSUS JUST EAST OF THE FA PER THE GFS. THE BEST 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR /35-45 KTS/ AND SBC /2.5-3.5 KJ/KG/ WILL BE SITUATED
NORTH AND EAST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS LATE TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING...BUT A WATCHFUL EYE WILL STILL BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY IF
THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. TAKE A LOOK AT THE
LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE LATEST RUNS STILL SUPPORT EARLIER TRENDS WITH THE FRONT HOLDING
UP ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING...AND A TRIPLE POINT
ALONG THE DRY-LINE FRONT INTERSECTION PROBABLY JUST NORTH OF OUR
AREA. BUT THIS IS A NEAR ENOUGH CALL TO JUSTIFY A LOW MENTION FOR
THUNDER NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR NORTHEAST CORNER MONDAY EVENING
WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST. INSTABILITY
APPEARS DECENT WHILE SHEAR A BIT LOW AT THIS TIME FOR MUCH
CONSIDERATION OF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT BUT SHOULD MAKE FOR
SOME CLOSE RADAR VIEWING INTO THE EVENING. FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SURGING WEAKLY SOUTH AGAIN
EARLY TUESDAY. A MID LEVEL RIPPLE MAY EMERGE THEN IN MODEST ZONAL
FLOW...AND COMBINE WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE TUESDAY. THIS WAS ENOUGH TO PUSH US INTO A MENTIONABLE
THUNDER CHANCE FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL...
CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL ZONES PROBABLY BEST NEAR CAPROCK RIM.
UPPER HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A DRY STABLE OUTCOME EXPECTED AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE
WARM SIDE. IN FACT MOST TRENDS STILL SUPPORT SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK. VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND A WAVE
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER IS EXPECTED TO DRAPE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH WE ARE AS YET
UNSURE IF A SOLID MONSOONAL TAP WILL DEVELOP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL SYSTEM SPINNING OFF BAJA
COULD ADD MOISTURE TO THE MIX. WE HAVE EDGED THUNDER CHANCES INTO
MENTIONABLE ZONE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE TAPERING
HIGHS ANOTHER NOTCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOPING JUST TO
LATCH ONTO THE CORRECT TREND FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  95  63  93  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  97  67  94  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     63  98  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     63  98  67  95  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  71  97  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  98  67  96  66 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64 100  68  97  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 101  74  98  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          67 100  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 100  73  98  73 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05
598
FXUS64 KLUB 311723
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS ARE GRADUALLY PICKING UP THIS
AFTERNOON...COURTESY OF A NEARBY DEEPENING SFC TROUGH. WILL SEE
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO 16-19 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES...WITH GUSTS
OF AOA 20-23 KTS PARTICULARLY AT KCDS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA/-TSRA
DEVELOPING NEAR KCDS THIS EVENING...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME.  WIND SPEEDS WILL DECLINE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BREEZY DUE TO A
INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS AOA 13 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE -SHRA/-TSRA DEVELOP NEAR
KCDS BY THE EVENING. WILL HOWEVER OPT TO FORGO A PRECIP MENTION
AND AWAIT FOR THE POTENTIAL EVENT TO DRAW NEARER.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  95  63  90  64 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         67  97  67  96  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  97  68  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  98  68  97  67 /  10   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  99  71  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  98  67  97  67 /  10   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  99  69  97  68 /  10   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 101  73  99  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  99  72  97  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72 100  74  98  75 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
226
FXUS64 KLUB 311115
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
615 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND REMAIN ELEVATED WELL INTO
EVENING AS A STOUT LLJ REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE OF A LATE-DAY HIGH-BASED SHOWER/STORM...THOUGH PROSPECTS
ARE FAR TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  64  95  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         96  67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  66  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  66  98  68  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  98  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  66  98  67  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  66  99  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  73 101  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  68  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
983
FXUS64 KLUB 310850
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
350 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENGULFING MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EDGE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONE EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THIS FLOW WAS JUST SKIRTING THE AREA WITH
LIFT...TRIGGERING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
ZONES...WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS OF 08Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z AS THE UPPER FORCING
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH RACING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT PEAK HEATING WHERE IT WILL HELP TRIGGER A ROUND OF SEVERE
CONVECTION THERE. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY AND RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO
KANSAS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS SURFACE TROUGH TO SEE IF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT COUPLED WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING CAN BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. MOST
DETERMINISTIC NWP SUGGEST THAT THE CAP WILL WIN OUT LOCALLY
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
GREATER. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE KEPT POPS RATHER LOW /AND
SILENT/...TAPERING FROM 13 PERCENT NEAR MEMPHIS TO 5 PERCENT AT
DENVER CITY. SHOULD A ROGUE CLOUD BE ABLE TO BREACH THE CAP...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF STRONG STORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

WHAT IS MUCH MORE CERTAIN TODAY IS THE PROSPECT FOR ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON...WITH CLIMBING THICKNESSES AND RISING 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORTING READINGS A FEW DEGREES HOTTER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS ON
THE CAPROCK WILL TOP OUT WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH UPPER 90S A
SOLID BET FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OUT EAST. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT ON LABOR DAY AS MID-LVL FLOW VEERS MORE
WESTERLY ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SMALL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE HIGH PLAINS...AND SPREADING A WARM AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. A WEAK DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO FIRM UP ACROSS THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...RUNNING ROUGHLY FROM THE EAST-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE
SSWD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
STRONG HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
FOR HIGH-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...OR
THE CAP MIGHT HOLD. NOT MUCH QPF SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE TO HANG
OUR HAT ON...SO WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST BELOW MENTION IN THE MOST
LIKELY CI LOCATION...NAMELY BRISCOE...HALL AND CHILDRESS
COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WASHING
OUT DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
AGAIN...GIVEN THE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...WE/LL KEEP POPS JUST UNDER
MENTION. THERE SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WHERE THE FRONT
SETTLES. WED THROUGH FRI SHOULD BRING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE
CWA...AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
SHOW A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN TIER...AND IN A NEW TWIST...EVEN BUILDS HEIGHTS
OVER WEST TX HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND SLOWLY WEAKENS THE RIDGING OVER WTX AND NM...AS A LARGE
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH SINKS SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. ALSO
IN THE ECMWF DEPICTION...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...URGED ON BY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...WITH THE FRONT
ARRIVING IN OUR CWA BY NEXT SATURDAY. GIVEN THE MAJOR
DISAGREEMENT...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HINT AT SOME COOLER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUD COVER NEXT WEEKEND BY
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        96  64  95  63  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         96  67  97  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     95  66  97  68  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  66  98  68  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       97  69  98  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   96  66  98  67  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  66  99  69  97 /  10  10   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    100  73 101  73  99 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          98  68  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     99  72 100  74  98 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
569
FXUS64 KLUB 310425
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A FEW DISSIPATING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND/OR STAY NORTH OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC...AND WITH
WINDS STAYING UP NEAR 10-12 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT IS THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME. WILL THUS KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.
FINALLY...AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT TS VCNTY KCDS LATE SUNDAY AFTN AS A
SFC TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE. POSSIBILITY
REMAINS REMOTE ATTM AND WILL NOT EXTEND MENTION BEYOND THIS
DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE LIKELY
TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MINOR OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS SFC AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS RICH. WILL KEEP BOTH TAFS UNRESTRICTED ATTM.
FINALLY...LEE SFC TROUGH TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BY AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND BROAD UA TROUGHING IMPINGING ON
THE NW PACIFIC...HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
CO/NRN NM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO ACROSS THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
SINCE WANED. THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH S-SE SFC FLOW AND
PWATS OF 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE AIDING IN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OF THE CWA IN CURRY
COUNTY. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS EVENING...DOES RAISE
CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS TO POSSIBLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS /GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL GIVEN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIP MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SERN TX
PANHANDLE AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS ESEWRD OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. TOMORROW...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN COURTESY OF THE BROAD UA TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS SUCH...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN A BIT...LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20 MPH/. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MORE SO ACROSS THE
ERN PANHANDLES. A CAPPING INVERSION IS APPARENTLY MAINTAINING A GRIP
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...THUS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPEEDING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY IN BROAD
BUT WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE... WITH SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREEMENT BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP NEAR OR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRYING STILL LOOK TOO PRONOUNCED
FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON LABOR DAY...AND WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL THOUGH WEAKER
SHOVE BY AN EVEN SHALLOWER WAVE RIPPLING TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...WE WILL CONTINUE SIDING WITH THE GENERAL STRONG WARM-UP
THAT WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...IE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL COOL PUSH AT THIS POINT. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DEEP
MOISTURE UNABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THOUGH SOME AMOUNT OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. FOR THE XTH DAY IN A
ROW...THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE PROXIMITY. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND HAVE RETAINED SUB-
MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW MAY LEAN CLOSER TO OUR AREA AT SOME POINT
LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  96  64  96  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  96  66  97  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  96  66  97  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  97  70  99  70 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  98  67  99  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70 100  73 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  73 100  74 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
630
FXUS64 KLUB 302321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE LIKELY
TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF KCDS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO LATE
TONIGHT WHEN MINOR OBSTRUCTION TO VSBY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
HOWEVER...COMPARED TO THE LAST TWO MORNINGS SFC AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS RICH. WILL KEEP BOTH TAFS UNRESTRICTED ATTM.
FINALLY...LEE SFC TROUGH TO SHARPEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY WITH
SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS BY AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
A RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND BROAD UA TROUGHING IMPINGING ON
THE NW PACIFIC...HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
CO/NRN NM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO ACROSS THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
SINCE WANED. THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH S-SE SFC FLOW AND
PWATS OF 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE AIDING IN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OF THE CWA IN CURRY
COUNTY. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS EVENING...DOES RAISE
CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS TO POSSIBLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS /GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL GIVEN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIP MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SERN TX
PANHANDLE AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS ESEWRD OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. TOMORROW...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN COURTESY OF THE BROAD UA TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS SUCH...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN A BIT...LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20 MPH/. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MORE SO ACROSS THE
ERN PANHANDLES. A CAPPING INVERSION IS APPARENTLY MAINTAINING A GRIP
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...THUS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPEEDING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY IN BROAD
BUT WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE... WITH SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREEMENT BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP NEAR OR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRYING STILL LOOK TOO PRONOUNCED
FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON LABOR DAY...AND WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL THOUGH WEAKER
SHOVE BY AN EVEN SHALLOWER WAVE RIPPLING TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...WE WILL CONTINUE SIDING WITH THE GENERAL STRONG WARM-UP
THAT WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...IE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL COOL PUSH AT THIS POINT. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DEEP
MOISTURE UNABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THOUGH SOME AMOUNT OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. FOR THE XTH DAY IN A
ROW...THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE PROXIMITY. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND HAVE RETAINED SUB-
MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW MAY LEAN CLOSER TO OUR AREA AT SOME POINT
LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  96  64  96  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  96  66  97  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  96  66  97  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  97  70  99  70 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  98  67  99  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70 100  73 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  73 100  74 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
837
FXUS64 KLUB 302038
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS AND BROAD UA TROUGHING IMPINGING ON
THE NW PACIFIC...HAS RESULTED IN WEAK WNW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT HAS
CAUSED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN
CO/NRN NM LATE LAST NIGHT...AND THE ACTIVITY SHIFTED TO ACROSS THE
WRN OK PANHANDLE/NWRN TX PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAS
SINCE WANED. THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH S-SE SFC FLOW AND
PWATS OF 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE AIDING IN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE AND NW OF THE CWA IN CURRY
COUNTY. THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SAID
AREAS INCLUDING THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS LATER THIS
EVENING...LINGERING INTO TONIGHT. GRADUAL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
WIND SPEEDS ALOFT APPROACHING 30 KTS THIS EVENING...DOES RAISE
CONCERNS FOR A FEW STORMS TO POSSIBLY APPROACH STRONG LEVELS /GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL/...IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR MODERATE
RAINFALL GIVEN ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIP MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SERN TX
PANHANDLE AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS ESEWRD OVERHEAD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE
LOWER 70S OFF THE CAPROCK. TOMORROW...THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SWRN
CONUS WILL FLATTEN COURTESY OF THE BROAD UA TROUGH TRANSLATING EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS SUCH...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN A BIT...LEADING TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HENCE
BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS BY THE AFTN /AOA 20 MPH/. THE DOWNSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...MORE SO ACROSS THE
ERN PANHANDLES. A CAPPING INVERSION IS APPARENTLY MAINTAINING A GRIP
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...THUS
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPEEDING NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY IN BROAD
BUT WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE... WITH SOLUTIONS GENERALLY AGREEMENT BOUNDARY WILL
HANG UP NEAR OR OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND MID LEVEL DRYING STILL LOOK TOO PRONOUNCED
FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON LABOR DAY...AND WE
WILL RETAIN THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL THOUGH WEAKER
SHOVE BY AN EVEN SHALLOWER WAVE RIPPLING TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW
DEGREES...WE WILL CONTINUE SIDING WITH THE GENERAL STRONG WARM-UP
THAT WILL BE UNDERWAY THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE...IE WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEANINGFUL COOL PUSH AT THIS POINT. AN ELONGATED
UPPER RIDGE WILL FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH DEEP
MOISTURE UNABLE TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THOUGH SOME AMOUNT OF
TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. FOR THE XTH DAY IN A
ROW...THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE PROXIMITY. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THIS AND HAVE RETAINED SUB-
MENTIONABLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW MAY LEAN CLOSER TO OUR AREA AT SOME POINT
LATE IN THE WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  96  64  96  63 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         65  96  66  97  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  96  66  97  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  97  70  99  70 /  10  10   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  97  67  98  67 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    66  98  67  99  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     70 100  73 100  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          70  98  69  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73  99  73 100  74 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05
410
FXUS64 KLUB 301723
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA
TO DEVELOP NEAR KCDS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AOA 15-16 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-22 KTS AT BOTH TAF SITES. LIGHT VFR/MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL IS BECOMING
LESS INFLUENTIAL GIVEN DRIER GROUNDS. WILL HOLD OFF INSERTING A
MENTION FOR NOW BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
IT IS ANOTHER MILD AND MOIST START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 08Z. THE LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DO RAISE
EYEBROWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. HOWEVER...UP TO THIS POINT SATELLITE AND OBS CONFIRM CLEAR
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT KPVW HAS RECENTLY DROPPED TO
5SM. WE COULD YET SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT VEERING SURFACE FLOW AND DRIER GROUND
/IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/ SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL.

ALOFT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY UPSTREAM OF
YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS MINOR DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ON A
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TREK...BRUSHING BY OUR FAR NORTHERN AND AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WEAKNESS COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP A NOTCH FROM
YESTERDAY /AROUND 30 KNOTS/ WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK AND PROGGED SBCAPE IS
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG...SO OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED. STILL...A BRIEF STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...WITH THE PANHANDLE MOST FAVORED...THOUGH A LITTLE
ACTIVITY COULD LEAK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A HOT ONE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION
PROPELLING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW WITH RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS HELPING TO HOLD LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS KS...DEEPENING A SFC TROUGH AND
SRLY BREEZES ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HEATING ACROSS NW TX COULD
RESULT IN ISOLD TSTMS BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP IN THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE...BUT THE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR
AREA. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON LABOR DAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND COULD NEAR OUR NRN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY. IF IT DOES SO
IT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT ALOFT...BUT
THE FRONT MAY YET HOLD UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE QPF SIGNAL IS VERY
WEAK IN THE GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIER SW MID-LVL
FLOW DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY EASE DOWN. TUESDAY MAY ALSO SEE THE LAST GASP OF /WEAK/
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF. THIS
IS LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A REMNANT FOCUS FROM THE MONDAY/S FRONT
WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO ADD POPS AT THIS POINT. BEYOND TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...SLOWLY
GIVING WAY ON IT/S WRN FLANK AFTER MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY
MILD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MONSOON REGIME
RETURNING TO NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  96  64  95  65 /  10  10  10  10  10
TULIA         66  97  66  96  69 /  20  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     66  96  66  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     66  97  68  97  69 /  10   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       69  96  70  98  71 /  10   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   66  96  68  98  69 /  10   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    67  97  68  99  70 /  10   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  99  72  99  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  97  70  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  75 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
260
FXUS64 KLUB 301140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM A LITTLE LIGHT EARLY MORNING FOG THIS MORNING
PROVIDING MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KLBB...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
DOMINATE THE TERMINALS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KCDS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A TERMINAL IMPACT
IS LOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCES...LIGHT WINDS WILL
BE THE RULE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
IT IS ANOTHER MILD AND MOIST START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 08Z. THE LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DO RAISE
EYEBROWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. HOWEVER...UP TO THIS POINT SATELLITE AND OBS CONFIRM CLEAR
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT KPVW HAS RECENTLY DROPPED TO
5SM. WE COULD YET SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT VEERING SURFACE FLOW AND DRIER GROUND
/IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/ SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL.

ALOFT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY UPSTREAM OF
YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS MINOR DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ON A
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TREK...BRUSHING BY OUR FAR NORTHERN AND AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WEAKNESS COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP A NOTCH FROM
YESTERDAY /AROUND 30 KNOTS/ WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK AND PROGGED SBCAPE IS
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG...SO OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED. STILL...A BRIEF STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...WITH THE PANHANDLE MOST FAVORED...THOUGH A LITTLE
ACTIVITY COULD LEAK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A HOT ONE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION
PROPELLING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW WITH RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS HELPING TO HOLD LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS KS...DEEPENING A SFC TROUGH AND
SRLY BREEZES ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HEATING ACROSS NW TX COULD
RESULT IN ISOLD TSTMS BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP IN THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE...BUT THE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR
AREA. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON LABOR DAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND COULD NEAR OUR NRN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY. IF IT DOES SO
IT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT ALOFT...BUT
THE FRONT MAY YET HOLD UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE QPF SIGNAL IS VERY
WEAK IN THE GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIER SW MID-LVL
FLOW DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY EASE DOWN. TUESDAY MAY ALSO SEE THE LAST GASP OF /WEAK/
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF. THIS
IS LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A REMNANT FOCUS FROM THE MONDAY/S FRONT
WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO ADD POPS AT THIS POINT. BEYOND TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...SLOWLY
GIVING WAY ON IT/S WRN FLANK AFTER MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY
MILD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MONSOON REGIME
RETURNING TO NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  63  96  64  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         94  66  97  66  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  66  96  66  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  66  97  68  97 /  10  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       94  69  96  70  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   92  66  96  68  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    93  67  97  68  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  72  99  72  99 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          94  68  97  70  98 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     97  72  98  73  98 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
566
FXUS64 KLUB 300826
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
326 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
IT IS ANOTHER MILD AND MOIST START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AS OF 08Z. THE LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS DO RAISE
EYEBROWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
FOG. HOWEVER...UP TO THIS POINT SATELLITE AND OBS CONFIRM CLEAR
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THE VISIBILITY AT KPVW HAS RECENTLY DROPPED TO
5SM. WE COULD YET SEE A FEW POCKETS OF FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT VEERING SURFACE FLOW AND DRIER GROUND
/IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY/ SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE THIS POTENTIAL.

ALOFT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST TODAY UPSTREAM OF
YESTERDAY/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD LOW-AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAVE RESULTED IN POCKETS OF CLOUDINESS AND EVEN A
FEW SHOWERS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS MINOR DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ON A
SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TREK...BRUSHING BY OUR FAR NORTHERN AND AND
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
WEAKNESS COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING SHOULD HELP TO ERODE THE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MOIST CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE UP A NOTCH FROM
YESTERDAY /AROUND 30 KNOTS/ WITH STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT...THOUGH
THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE WEAK AND PROGGED SBCAPE IS
GENERALLY AOB 1000 J/KG...SO OVERALL STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED. STILL...A BRIEF STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...WITH THE PANHANDLE MOST FAVORED...THOUGH A LITTLE
ACTIVITY COULD LEAK INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS BEFORE
DISSIPATING THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A HOT ONE TODAY WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION
PROPELLING HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW WITH RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS HELPING TO HOLD LOWS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT THE SRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS KS...DEEPENING A SFC TROUGH AND
SRLY BREEZES ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HEATING ACROSS NW TX COULD
RESULT IN ISOLD TSTMS BREAKING THROUGH THE CAP IN THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE...BUT THE CAP WILL LIKELY HOLD FARTHER SOUTH IN OUR
AREA. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ON LABOR DAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AND COULD NEAR OUR NRN ZONES BY LATE MONDAY. IF IT DOES SO
IT COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME T-STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE
SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND LIFT ALOFT...BUT
THE FRONT MAY YET HOLD UP TO OUR NORTH AND THE QPF SIGNAL IS VERY
WEAK IN THE GUIDANCE. WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE DRIER SW MID-LVL
FLOW DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY EASE DOWN. TUESDAY MAY ALSO SEE THE LAST GASP OF /WEAK/
NW FLOW ALOFT...AND THE ECMWF IS GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF. THIS
IS LIKELY DEPENDENT ON A REMNANT FOCUS FROM THE MONDAY/S FRONT
WHICH THE ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO ADD POPS AT THIS POINT. BEYOND TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...SLOWLY
GIVING WAY ON IT/S WRN FLANK AFTER MIDWEEK AS A TROUGH ARRIVES ON
THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP US DRY AND SEASONABLY
MILD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MONSOON REGIME
RETURNING TO NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  63  96  64  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         94  66  97  66  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     93  66  96  66  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  66  97  68  97 /  10  10   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       94  69  96  70  98 /  10  10  10   0  10
DENVER CITY   92  66  96  68  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    93  67  97  68  99 /  10  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     96  72  99  72  99 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          94  68  97  70  98 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     97  72  98  73  98 /  10  10   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
770
FXUS64 KLUB 300447
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1147 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN ATTEMPT TO UNFOLD AT CDS BEFORE SUNRISE AS
TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NARROWING. SETUP HOWEVER IS LESS IDEAL
THAN LAST NIGHT SO WILL OMIT TAF MENTION ALTOGETHER. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT A WEAK IMPULSE NEAR CDS BY EARLY SAT
EVNG...BUT ANY TS LOOK TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SKC AT LBB AND CDS WITH LIGHT SLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  91  64  94  63 /  10  20  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  66  95  67 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  92  67  94  67 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  91  66  94  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  94  69  96  69 /   0  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  92  67  95  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  67  95  67 /   0  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  96  72  98  74 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPUR          71  95  69  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  73  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
609
FXUS64 KLUB 292338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR THRU 31/00Z WITH NO THREAT FOR TSRA. DECAYING
COLD FRONT NEAR THE TERMINALS WILL WASH OUT OVERNIGHT KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT/VRB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT BROUGHT PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL TO SEVERE HAIL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE OPENED UP AND SHEARED OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT UP BY
THE WRLY FLOW ALOFT TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AS SUCH...LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN FLEETING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO
CONTINUALLY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...NEAREST TO THE
THE BASE OF THE UA TROUGH AND BEST MOISTURE AXIS.
NONETHELESS...PRECIP DEVELOPMENT NEARING THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IS
NOT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT BRIEFLY OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS AFTN. AS THE UA TROUGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT...SO WILL THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY.

A COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE STALLED THIS AFTN FROM A
MEMPHIS TO FLOYDADA TO TAHOKA LINE. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEE IF IT AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MOST SOLUTIONS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THAT
PLAUSIBILITY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY BEING SO WEAK. ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL PRECIP OPPORTUNITY COURTESY OF NW FLOW
ALOFT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES. STORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
CO/NORTHERN NM TONIGHT...AND WITH FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT...IT WILL
TRANSLATE SE TO ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS SHOWN TO WANE A BIT BUT WILL RE-DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR/ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING PER THE NAM AND ECMWF /THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH/.
WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES GIVEN
THE ENSUING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...PWATS OF AOA 1.00 INCH AND S-SE
SFC WINDS WORKING IN FAVOR OF THIS SCENARIO.

ON THE HEELS OF THE UA TROUGH IS INVADING DRY AIR ALOFT IMPINGING ON
THE REGION...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRICKLE DOWN TO THE MID-LEVELS BY
TONIGHT PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AS DEWPOINTS PER 20Z METARS RANGED FROM THE
30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS /PWATS IN THE 0.75-1.60 RANGE/...AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE
50S AND 60S BY TONIGHT /PWATS IN THE 1.00-1.20 INCH RANGE/.
HENCE...IT IS NO WONDER THAT PRECIP WILL POTENTIALLY BE ABLE TO
LINGER INTO TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS
TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 90S/
THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL. /29

LONG TERM...
LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING
WEEK. SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FOLLOWING THE WEAK
IMPULSE LATE SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE LATE MONDAY WILL BE WEAKER STILL.
SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY LEADING TO
ENHANCED DRY AND WARM WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS OUR AREA. TRENDS
SUPPORT FURTHER MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH LEANS TOWARDS MORE OF A
LID AS WELL. AND THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO PEAK SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN LINE WITH EARLIER TRENDS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING
THOSE TWO AS THE WARMEST UPCOMING DAYS. AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST
UPPER RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE
CENTER CLOSE...CONTINUING DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS NEXT
ROUND OF AMPLIFICATION DEVELOPS WITH A WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN
RIDGE. EARLY TRENDS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY THE MONSOONAL TAP TO OUR
WEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  91  64  94  63 /   0  20  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  66  95  67 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  92  67  94  67 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  91  66  94  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  94  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  92  67  95  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  96  72  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          71  95  69  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
684
FXUS64 KLUB 292025
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT BROUGHT PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL TO SEVERE HAIL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE OPENED UP AND SHEARED OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT UP BY
THE WRLY FLOW ALOFT TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AS SUCH...LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN FLEETING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO
CONTINUALLY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...NEAREST TO THE
THE BASE OF THE UA TROUGH AND BEST MOISTURE AXIS.
NONETHELESS...PRECIP DEVELOPMENT NEARING THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IS
NOT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT BRIEFLY OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS AFTN. AS THE UA TROUGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT...SO WILL THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY.

A COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE STALLED THIS AFTN FROM A
MEMPHIS TO FLOYDADA TO TAHOKA LINE. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEE IF IT AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MOST SOLUTIONS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THAT
PLAUSIBILITY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY BEING SO WEAK. ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL PRECIP OPPORTUNITY COURTESY OF NW FLOW
ALOFT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES. STORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
CO/NORTHERN NM TONIGHT...AND WITH FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT...IT WILL
TRANSLATE SE TO ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS SHOWN TO WANE A BIT BUT WILL RE-DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR/ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING PER THE NAM AND ECMWF /THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH/.
WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES GIVEN
THE ENSUING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...PWATS OF AOA 1.00 INCH AND S-SE
SFC WINDS WORKING IN FAVOR OF THIS SCENARIO.

ON THE HEELS OF THE UA TROUGH IS INVADING DRY AIR ALOFT IMPINGING ON
THE REGION...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRICKLE DOWN TO THE MID-LEVELS BY
TONIGHT PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AS DEWPOINTS PER 20Z METARS RANGED FROM THE
30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS /PWATS IN THE 0.75-1.60 RANGE/...AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE
50S AND 60S BY TONIGHT /PWATS IN THE 1.00-1.20 INCH RANGE/.
HENCE...IT IS NO WONDER THAT PRECIP WILL POTENTIALLY BE ABLE TO
LINGER INTO TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS
TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 90S/
THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL. /29

&&

.LONG TERM...
LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING
WEEK. SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FOLLOWING THE WEAK
IMPULSE LATE SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE LATE MONDAY WILL BE WEAKER STILL.
SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY LEADING TO
ENHANCED DRY AND WARM WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS OUR AREA. TRENDS
SUPPORT FURTHER MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH LEANS TOWARDS MORE OF A
LID AS WELL. AND THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO PEAK SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN LINE WITH EARLIER TRENDS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING
THOSE TWO AS THE WARMEST UPCOMING DAYS. AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST
UPPER RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE
CENTER CLOSE...CONTINUING DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS NEXT
ROUND OF AMPLIFICATION DEVELOPS WITH A WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN
RIDGE. EARLY TRENDS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY THE MONSOONAL TAP TO OUR
WEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  91  64  94  63 /  10  20  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  66  95  67 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  92  67  94  67 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  91  66  94  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  94  69  96  70 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  92  67  95  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  96  72  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          71  95  69  97  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/05
899
FXUS64 KLUB 291722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR FOG AT BOTH TAF SITES DIMINISHED EARLIER THIS
MORNING...THOUGH MVFR CLOUD DECKS WERE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT AT KCDS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW VFR DECKS AT KCDS BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS IS SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
VFR/MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COMPUTER MODELS
SHOW ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO BE SLIGHTLY DRIER AT THE SFC THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A MENTION
ATTM...BUT WILL OF COURSE AMEND AS NECESSARY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING. THERE ARE
HINTS OF LIGHT -SHRA/-TSRA NEARING KCDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A MENTION ATTM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS OF 08Z...CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEN BENT
SOUTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /FORMERLY A CLOSED LOW/ THAT WAS SHEARING OUT AS IT WAS
ACCELERATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON ITS WAY TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
WELL...WITH MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR INVADING FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES...AND GIVEN THIS HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THOUGH A BULK...IF NOT ALL...OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
UNTIL PERHAPS A MINOR WAVE ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS TAKING ITS
TIME SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...BUT IT IS PROGGED TO STALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID-MORNING...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT...PARTICULARLY OUT EAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BEHIND THE STALLING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LINGER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL
BE LACKING THIS AFTERNOON /AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE ON THE NEGATIVE
SIDE/...IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST NWP IS RATHER SPARSE WITH QPF
LOCALLY AND GENERALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE
CWA...SHOULD IT OCCUR. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD...BUT DID MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND EAST
OF A BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS LINE. IF/WHERE STORMS DO
DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DOWN A NOTCH FROM YESTERDAY...
BUT MODEST INSTABILITY COULD EXIST ALONG WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IN CONCERT COULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT
TO PROPAGATE THIS WAY THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE INFLOW WILL TEMPER CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE
FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY FAVORED HIGHS NEAR
GUIDANCE...THOUGH DID TRIM OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND MORE ENERGETIC IN THE WRF-NAM THAN THE
GFS...AND RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WTX. THE NAM GENERATES T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND CARRIES IT SE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SREF IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE NAM BUT DOES INDICATE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR NRN ZONES. A MODERATE ULJ WILL ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND IS SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE MID-
LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHALLOW AND
BROAD TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THIS WAVE
BUT THE LATEST PROGS STALL IT OUT ACROSS THE OKLA OR NRN TX
PANHANDLES. SOME JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD OVER NW TX LATE SUNDAY BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

BEYOND MONDAY....SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRING US A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SUPPORT A RETURN OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NM AND THE RESULTING DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY EDGE EWD TOWARD WTX LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT THE SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO ADD ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD GET PRETTY TOASTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TIGHTENING GRADIENTS LEAD TO STRONGER S-SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S ON THE CAP TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THEN...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES SHOW A GRADUAL
DECLINING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGH TEMPS STILL
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  64  94  63 /  10  20  10  10  10
TULIA         64  90  67  95  68 /  10  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  91  68  95  68 /  10  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  92  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       68  93  70  96  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   67  93  67  96  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    67  93  68  96  68 /  20  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  95  72  98  75 /  20  10  10  10  10
SPUR          68  94  71  97  73 /  20  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  96  74  98  75 /  20  20  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
341
FXUS64 KLUB 291155
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE ROAMING THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH PATCHY BREAKS. BOTH KLBB AND KCDS HAVE SEEN
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS EARLIER THIS MORNING...THOUGH CURRENTLY
THE TERMINALS ARE VFR AND MVFR...RESPECTIVELY. BOTH TERMINALS
COULD SEE OCCASIONAL MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CIGS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH SUB-VFR CIGS PERHAPS LINGERING AT KCDS THROUGH LATE
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A SLIM CHANCE OF
SUB-VFR CIGS/BR TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A STORM FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN A TERMINAL IMPACT IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
AS OF 08Z...CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEN BENT
SOUTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /FORMERLY A CLOSED LOW/ THAT WAS SHEARING OUT AS IT WAS
ACCELERATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON ITS WAY TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
WELL...WITH MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR INVADING FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES...AND GIVEN THIS HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THOUGH A BULK...IF NOT ALL...OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
UNTIL PERHAPS A MINOR WAVE ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS TAKING ITS
TIME SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...BUT IT IS PROGGED TO STALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID-MORNING...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT...PARTICULARLY OUT EAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BEHIND THE STALLING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LINGER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL
BE LACKING THIS AFTERNOON /AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE ON THE NEGATIVE
SIDE/...IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST NWP IS RATHER SPARSE WITH QPF
LOCALLY AND GENERALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE
CWA...SHOULD IT OCCUR. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD...BUT DID MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND EAST
OF A BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS LINE. IF/WHERE STORMS DO
DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DOWN A NOTCH FROM YESTERDAY...
BUT MODEST INSTABILITY COULD EXIST ALONG WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IN CONCERT COULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT
TO PROPAGATE THIS WAY THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE INFLOW WILL TEMPER CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE
FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY FAVORED HIGHS NEAR
GUIDANCE...THOUGH DID TRIM OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S EAST.

LONG TERM...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND MORE ENERGETIC IN THE WRF-NAM THAN THE
GFS...AND RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WTX. THE NAM GENERATES T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND CARRIES IT SE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SREF IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE NAM BUT DOES INDICATE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR NRN ZONES. A MODERATE ULJ WILL ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND IS SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE MID-
LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHALLOW AND
BROAD TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THIS WAVE
BUT THE LATEST PROGS STALL IT OUT ACROSS THE OKLA OR NRN TX
PANHANDLES. SOME JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD OVER NW TX LATE SUNDAY BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

BEYOND MONDAY....SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRING US A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SUPPORT A RETURN OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NM AND THE RESULTING DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY EDGE EWD TOWARD WTX LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT THE SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO ADD ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD GET PRETTY TOASTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TIGHTENING GRADIENTS LEAD TO STRONGER S-SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S ON THE CAP TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THEN...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES SHOW A GRADUAL
DECLINING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGH TEMPS STILL
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  62  89  64  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TULIA         88  64  90  67  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     88  65  91  68  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     88  65  92  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       90  68  92  70  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  67  93  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    91  67  93  68  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     91  69  95  72  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          90  68  94  71  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  72  96  74  98 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
606
FXUS64 KLUB 290914
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
AS OF 08Z...CONVECTION STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS...THEN BENT
SOUTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. THIS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH /FORMERLY A CLOSED LOW/ THAT WAS SHEARING OUT AS IT WAS
ACCELERATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON ITS WAY TO BE
ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
WELL...WITH MUCH DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR INVADING FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE PASSING DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO EXIT THE EASTERN ZONES...AND GIVEN THIS HAVE
DECIDED TO MAINTAIN A MINIMAL STORM MENTION IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
THROUGH THIS MORNING THOUGH A BULK...IF NOT ALL...OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE
TROUGH...A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THOUGH NO OBVIOUS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE
UNTIL PERHAPS A MINOR WAVE ON SATURDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...A POORLY DEFINED/WEAK COLD FRONT WAS TAKING ITS
TIME SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA...BUT IT IS PROGGED TO STALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE...AND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS IT HAS PROMOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
MID-MORNING...BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY OR EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR ALL OF THE LOW CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT...PARTICULARLY OUT EAST.
MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BEHIND THE STALLING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LINGER IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL
BE LACKING THIS AFTERNOON /AND PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE ON THE NEGATIVE
SIDE/...IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT COULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MOST NWP IS RATHER SPARSE WITH QPF
LOCALLY AND GENERALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE
CWA...SHOULD IT OCCUR. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE TRENDED POPS
DOWNWARD...BUT DID MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ALONG AND EAST
OF A BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK TO MEMPHIS LINE. IF/WHERE STORMS DO
DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE DOWN A NOTCH FROM YESTERDAY...
BUT MODEST INSTABILITY COULD EXIST ALONG WITH PWATS NEAR 1.5
INCHES...WHICH IN CONCERT COULD SUPPORT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...WOULD EXPECT THEM TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MAY ATTEMPT
TO PROPAGATE THIS WAY THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE INFLOW WILL TEMPER CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAKING INTO THE
FA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY FAVORED HIGHS NEAR
GUIDANCE...THOUGH DID TRIM OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE THE HEAVIER
RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S...PERHAPS A FEW LOWER 70S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY...IT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY SHARPER AND MORE ENERGETIC IN THE WRF-NAM THAN THE
GFS...AND RESULTS IN A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY SWIFT NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER WTX. THE NAM GENERATES T-STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
AND CARRIES IT SE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SREF IS NOT AS BULLISH AS THE NAM BUT DOES INDICATE
SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WRN AND SRN TX PANHANDLE. WE HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR NRN ZONES. A MODERATE ULJ WILL ENHANCE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND IS SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. THE MID-
LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SHALLOW AND
BROAD TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN PLAINS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THIS WAVE
BUT THE LATEST PROGS STALL IT OUT ACROSS THE OKLA OR NRN TX
PANHANDLES. SOME JET ENERGY WILL SPREAD OVER NW TX LATE SUNDAY BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CAP WILL HOLD SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THOUGH.

BEYOND MONDAY....SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD AND SHOULD BRING US A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SUPPORT A RETURN OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK INTO NM AND THE RESULTING DIURNAL
CONVECTION COULD EVENTUALLY EDGE EWD TOWARD WTX LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT THE SIGNAL IS TOO WEAK TO ADD ANY POPS AT THIS TIME.

FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD GET PRETTY TOASTY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
TIGHTENING GRADIENTS LEAD TO STRONGER S-SW FLOW. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S ON THE CAP TO NEAR 100 IN THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THEN...HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES SHOW A GRADUAL
DECLINING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HIGH TEMPS STILL
ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARMER THAN AVERAGE...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  62  89  64  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TULIA         88  64  90  67  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     88  65  91  68  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     88  65  92  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       89  68  93  70  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   91  67  93  67  96 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    91  67  93  68  96 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     91  69  95  72  98 /  20  20  10  10  10
SPUR          90  68  94  71  97 /  20  20  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     93  72  96  74  98 /  20  20  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
118
FXUS64 KLUB 290430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE PRECIP
MENTION OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE SRN ROLLING PLAINS AND SCALE
BACK CLOUD COVER. AXIS OF DEEPEST LIFT PER WATER VAPOR DATA
CONTINUES TO SHUFFLE EAST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO NW TX
AHEAD OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND MUCH LOWER PWATS. READILY
APPARENT COLD POCKET FARTHER N-NW IN THE TX PANHANDLE WILL ALSO
PIVOT EAST OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS GARNER NEW TSTORMS NEAR THE
WESTERN FRINGES OF RICHER PWATS...BUT THIS SCENARIO SEEMS MOST
LIKELY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.

LASTLY...ONCOMING SHIFT WILL MONITOR FOR THE THREAT OF SOME FOG
THRU THE MORNING AS LATEST WEST TX MESONET OBS ARE SHOWING LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS PARTICULARLY IN BRISCOE AND FLOYD COUNTIES.
LIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO WINDS MAY PROVE JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
THIS MOISTURE FROM SETTLING OUT AS ALL DEW AND RESULT IN FOG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM FOR MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOP THRU 14Z MAINLY AT LBB...BUT THIS
THREAT IS TOO CONDITIONAL FOR ANY MORE MENTION THAN THIS.
OTHERWISE...THE WINDOW FOR TSRA HAS CLOSED AT LBB AND CDS...BUT
THIS MAY CRACK OPEN JUST ENUF BY FRI AFTN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS. WILL OPT FOR A PROB30 AT
CDS AND LBB TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  85  61  90  62 /  10  20  20  10  10
TULIA         61  88  64  92  65 /  10  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  88  65  91  65 /  10  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  88  64  91  64 /  10  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  68  93  69 /  10  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92  65 /  10  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  66  93  66 /  10  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  93  72  95  72 /  10  30  30  10  10
SPUR          66  92  67  94  67 /  30  30  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  95  72  97  71 /  60  40  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
944
FXUS64 KLUB 282323
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
623 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY MOVED EAST OF THE KLBB TERMINAL
AND IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN NEAR KCDS. WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY PERIODICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT KCDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS A NICE COMMA SHAPED LOW CENTERED OVER THE CO/NM STATE LINE
MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY PACE. WHILE PRECIP WAS SLOW GO THIS AM
WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR CONTINUOUS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THINGS ARE STARTING TO RAMP UP ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WILL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SVR IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL. BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REACH UP
TO 35KTS...WHICH HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR STORMS...AND A JET MAX
JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR HAPPY STORMS. ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS PWATS
WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR PRETTY
HEAVY RAINFALLS. STORM MOTIONS...AS IS OBSERVED CURRENTLY...WILL
FAVOR TRAINING STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING WHILE DECLINING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
BE GREATEST IN THAT AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MANY AREAS WITH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SEEING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WHILE OUR EASTERN
ZONES WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 70. MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE
FRONT BEING WEAK WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM GOING LOWER. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
AND THE MID 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...AND WILL BE EXITING THE SAID REGION TOMORROW NIGHT
THUS HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND SO WILL THE SPATIAL EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION /BEST CHANCES OFF THE CAPROCK/. HOWEVER A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH
PLAINS TOMORROW WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.60 INCHES/...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD AID IN SPOTTY LINGERING
PRECIP SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN
A BIT SUNDAY AND CAUSE SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS. LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UA LOW IMPINGING ON THE PACIFIC
NW...WILL SHIFT EAST TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HENCE PROMOTING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPING ALONG IT...AND POSSIBLY NEAR THE NRN ZONES.
THEREAFTER...AN UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND KEEPING STORMS
AT BAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASES...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES DECLINE JUST A BIT BY MID-WEEK...LEADING TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  85  61  90  62 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         61  88  64  92  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  88  65  91  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  88  64  91  64 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  68  93  69 /  40  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  66  93  66 /  40  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  93  72  95  72 /  50  30  30  10  10
SPUR          66  92  67  94  67 /  50  30  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  95  72  97  71 /  50  40  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
663
FXUS64 KLUB 282031
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
331 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS A NICE COMMA SHAPED LOW CENTERED OVER THE CO/NM STATE LINE
MOVING EASTWARD AT A STEADY PACE. WHILE PRECIP WAS SLOW GO THIS AM
WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR CONTINUOUS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
THE ROLLING PLAINS...THINGS ARE STARTING TO RAMP UP ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS WILL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE
WIDESPREAD SVR IS STILL NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL. BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REACH UP
TO 35KTS...WHICH HAS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SVR STORMS...AND A JET MAX
JUST TO OUR NORTH WILL PROMOTE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL
MAKE FOR HAPPY STORMS. ONE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AS PWATS
WELL OVER 1.5 INCHES AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES WILL MAKE FOR PRETTY
HEAVY RAINFALLS. STORM MOTIONS...AS IS OBSERVED CURRENTLY...WILL
FAVOR TRAINING STORMS. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING WHILE DECLINING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROF AXIS MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL
BE GREATEST IN THAT AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MANY AREAS WITH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SEEING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WHILE OUR EASTERN
ZONES WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 70. MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE
FRONT BEING WEAK WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM GOING LOWER. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
AND THE MID 90S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTN...AND WILL BE EXITING THE SAID REGION TOMORROW NIGHT
THUS HEADING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ON THE DECLINE AND SO WILL THE SPATIAL EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION /BEST CHANCES OFF THE CAPROCK/. HOWEVER A COLD
FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH
PLAINS TOMORROW WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RESIDUAL
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH ENDURING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE /PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00-1.60 INCHES/...A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD AID IN SPOTTY LINGERING
PRECIP SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WILL TIGHTEN
A BIT SUNDAY AND CAUSE SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS. LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BROAD UA LOW IMPINGING ON THE PACIFIC
NW...WILL SHIFT EAST TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HENCE PROMOTING
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE FA. MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTH TO ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH PRECIP
DEVELOPING ALONG IT...AND POSSIBLY NEAR THE NRN ZONES.
THEREAFTER...AN UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SERN CONUS WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND KEEPING STORMS
AT BAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASES...
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S ON SATURDAY TO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS /OFF THE
CAPROCK/ BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES DECLINE JUST A BIT BY MID-WEEK...LEADING TO
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  85  61  90  62 /  20  20  20  10  10
TULIA         61  88  64  92  65 /  40  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     61  88  65  91  65 /  40  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     63  88  64  91  64 /  40  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  91  68  94  69 /  50  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  91  66  92  65 /  50  30  20  10  10
BROWNFIELD    64  91  66  93  66 /  50  30  20  10  10
CHILDRESS     69  93  72  95  72 /  50  30  30  10  10
SPUR          66  92  67  94  67 /  50  30  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     69  95  72  97  71 /  50  40  30  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29
794
FXUS64 KLUB 281736
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1236 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
CU IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG A
LINE FROM CANYON TO CLOVIS WHILE A NEWER AND MORE EXTENSIVE LINE
OF CU HAS RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT ALONG A LINE
FROM CANADIAN TO SILVERTON. CLEAR SKIES DURING THE MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE HELPED BUILD INSTABILITY WITH THE 17Z RUC
ANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500J/KG WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNT
CO-LOCATED WITH WITH FRONT. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET INCREASES IN STRENGTH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HELP FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON. CURRENT
RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 20KTS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD
WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT WILL BUILD TO 35KTS ON THE HIGH SIDE.
WHILE A WIDE SPREAD SVR POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED SOME ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1211 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXISTS
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CDS AND SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD BY 19Z. TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AFTER 19Z AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME CU HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WHILE
THE CONFIDENCE OF BOTH TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED BY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
FAIRLY LOW AT THE MOMENT. FOR NOW ANY CONVECTION MENTION WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS TIME A WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWS AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM
- WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB - MOVING ACROSS COLORADO WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LVL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SW FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FROM CHIHUAHUA NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A
MODICUM OF LIFT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
OUR NE ZONES AND ALSO IN ERN NM. WE EXPECT THAT LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER JET EDGES CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS.
MUCH OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ERN NM INTO THE SW SPLNS BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE
EXTENT AND LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS WE
HEAD INTO INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE BULK OF UPPER FORCING ARRIVES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LVL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP FROM WRN OKLA SW INTO
THE WRN PERMIAN BASIN....BISECTING OUR CWA. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...NAMELY THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE OVERALL DEPICTION IS PRETTY MESSY. BECAUSE OF
THIS WE HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY BROADLY PAINTED...GENERALLY GOING
HIGH CHANCES MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCOMING JET ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WE/VE SEEN
IN SOME TIME...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS OR SO...WHICH COULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER AND MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OVERTURNING. IF AMPLE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES MAY RISE TOWARD
2000 J/KG WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE
MOIST REGIME WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES. ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE
MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE CONCERN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS COULD FORM A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE IF IT DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PICTURE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS
MUDDIED UP AT THE MOMENT BY SMALL SCALE FEATURES NOT WELL RESOLVED
THIS FAR OUT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON FRIDAY
AND PERSIST AROUND OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ANY
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED BY
THE AREA ON FRIDAY SO LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE...THE LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR
DETERMINING LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOWER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUT STILL IN A RESPECTABLE CATEGORY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. BEYOND SATURDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW. A
FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
FRONT TO STOP SHORT. OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLACING WEST TEXAS UNDER
A MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  85  61  90  62 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  86  63  91  65 /  40  30  30  10  10
PLAINVIEW     62  87  65  92  65 /  40  30  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  88  65  91  64 /  40  30  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  90  68  94  69 /  50  30  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  90  66  93  66 /  50  30  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  90  66  94  65 /  50  30  30  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  91  71  96  72 /  50  30  30  10  10
SPUR          67  91  68  95  68 /  50  30  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     70  94  71  97  71 /  50  40  40  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29
079
FXUS64 KLUB 281711
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1211 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXISTS
JUST SOUTHEAST OF CDS AND SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD BY 19Z. TSRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS BEGINNING AFTER 19Z AS
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME CU HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE. WHILE
THE CONFIDENCE OF BOTH TERMINALS BEING AFFECTED BY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY HIGH...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
FAIRLY LOW AT THE MOMENT. FOR NOW ANY CONVECTION MENTION WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF UNTIL TIMING CAN BE DETERMINED. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS TIME A WIND SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH CAN BE
EXPECTED...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWS AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM
- WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB - MOVING ACROSS COLORADO WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LVL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SW FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FROM CHIHUAHUA NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A
MODICUM OF LIFT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
OUR NE ZONES AND ALSO IN ERN NM. WE EXPECT THAT LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER JET EDGES CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS.
MUCH OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ERN NM INTO THE SW SPLNS BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE
EXTENT AND LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS WE
HEAD INTO INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE BULK OF UPPER FORCING ARRIVES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LVL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP FROM WRN OKLA SW INTO
THE WRN PERMIAN BASIN....BISECTING OUR CWA. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...NAMELY THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE OVERALL DEPICTION IS PRETTY MESSY. BECAUSE OF
THIS WE HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY BROADLY PAINTED...GENERALLY GOING
HIGH CHANCES MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCOMING JET ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WE/VE SEEN
IN SOME TIME...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS OR SO...WHICH COULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER AND MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OVERTURNING. IF AMPLE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES MAY RISE TOWARD
2000 J/KG WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE
MOIST REGIME WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES. ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE
MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE CONCERN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS COULD FORM A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE IF IT DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PICTURE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS
MUDDIED UP AT THE MOMENT BY SMALL SCALE FEATURES NOT WELL RESOLVED
THIS FAR OUT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON FRIDAY
AND PERSIST AROUND OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ANY
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED BY
THE AREA ON FRIDAY SO LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE...THE LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR
DETERMINING LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOWER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUT STILL IN A RESPECTABLE CATEGORY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. BEYOND SATURDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW. A
FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
FRONT TO STOP SHORT. OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLACING WEST TEXAS UNDER
A MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        59  85  61  90  62 /  40  20  20  10  10
TULIA         62  86  63  91  65 /  40  30  30  10  10
PLAINVIEW     62  87  65  92  65 /  40  30  30  10  10
LEVELLAND     64  88  65  91  64 /  40  30  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       67  90  68  94  69 /  50  30  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   65  90  66  93  66 /  50  30  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    65  90  66  94  65 /  50  30  30  10  10
CHILDRESS     70  91  71  96  72 /  50  30  30  10  10
SPUR          67  91  68  95  68 /  50  30  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     70  94  71  97  71 /  50  40  40  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51
136
FXUS64 KLUB 281132
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL THE SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30
FOR THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD...BUT T-STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE PAST 03 UTC...ESPECIALLY AT KCDS. VSBY REDUCTIONS AND
STRONG....ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TSRA...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY VEER FROM SE TO SSW AND REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWS AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM
- WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB - MOVING ACROSS COLORADO WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LVL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SW FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FROM CHIHUAHUA NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A
MODICUM OF LIFT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
OUR NE ZONES AND ALSO IN ERN NM. WE EXPECT THAT LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER JET EDGES CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS.
MUCH OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ERN NM INTO THE SW SPLNS BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE
EXTENT AND LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS WE
HEAD INTO INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE BULK OF UPPER FORCING ARRIVES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LVL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP FROM WRN OKLA SW INTO
THE WRN PERMIAN BASIN....BISECTING OUR CWA. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...NAMELY THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE OVERALL DEPICTION IS PRETTY MESSY. BECAUSE OF
THIS WE HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY BROADLY PAINTED...GENERALLY GOING
HIGH CHANCES MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCOMING JET ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WE/VE SEEN
IN SOME TIME...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS OR SO...WHICH COULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER AND MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OVERTURNING. IF AMPLE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES MAY RISE TOWARD
2000 J/KG WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE
MOIST REGIME WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES. ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE
MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE CONCERN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS COULD FORM A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE IF IT DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PICTURE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS
MUDDIED UP AT THE MOMENT BY SMALL SCALE FEATURES NOT WELL RESOLVED
THIS FAR OUT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON FRIDAY
AND PERSIST AROUND OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ANY
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED BY
THE AREA ON FRIDAY SO LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE...THE LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR
DETERMINING LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOWER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUT STILL IN A RESPECTABLE CATEGORY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. BEYOND SATURDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW. A
FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
FRONT TO STOP SHORT. OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLACING WEST TEXAS UNDER
A MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  59  85  61  90 /  30  40  20  20  10
TULIA         90  62  86  63  91 /  40  40  30  30  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  87  65  92 /  40  40  30  30  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  88  65  91 /  40  40  30  30  10
LUBBOCK       91  67  90  68  94 /  50  50  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   90  65  90  66  93 /  40  50  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    90  65  90  66  94 /  40  50  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     93  70  91  71  96 /  50  50  30  30  10
SPUR          93  67  91  68  95 /  60  50  30  30  10
ASPERMONT     95  70  94  71  97 /  50  50  40  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
661
FXUS64 KLUB 280844
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
344 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWS AN ENERGETIC SYSTEM
- WITH A CUTOFF LOW AT 500MB - MOVING ACROSS COLORADO WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IT ALSO
SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LVL MOISTURE ENTRAINED IN THE SW FLOW
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW FROM CHIHUAHUA NEWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A
MODICUM OF LIFT OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
OUR NE ZONES AND ALSO IN ERN NM. WE EXPECT THAT LIFT WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER JET EDGES CLOSER TO WEST TEXAS.
MUCH OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
ERN NM INTO THE SW SPLNS BEGINNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE
EXTENT AND LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS WE
HEAD INTO INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD...WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE BULK OF UPPER FORCING ARRIVES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LVL FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONLY THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP FROM WRN OKLA SW INTO
THE WRN PERMIAN BASIN....BISECTING OUR CWA. GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY
FAVORS DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE SFC
TROUGH...NAMELY THE FAR SE TX PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS...BUT THE OVERALL DEPICTION IS PRETTY MESSY. BECAUSE OF
THIS WE HAVE KEPT POPS FAIRLY BROADLY PAINTED...GENERALLY GOING
HIGH CHANCES MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN
TAPERING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE INCOMING JET ENERGY
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME OF THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WE/VE SEEN
IN SOME TIME...ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS OR SO...WHICH COULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. THIS IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTENT OF MID-LVL CLOUD
COVER AND MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH COULD LEAD TO
OVERTURNING. IF AMPLE HEATING DOES OCCUR...MLCAPES MAY RISE TOWARD
2000 J/KG WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THE
MOIST REGIME WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES. ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL BE
MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL STILL BE CONCERN. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE
STORMS COULD FORM A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED LINE TONIGHT...MOVING
THROUGH THE ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS LINE IF IT DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST PICTURE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS
MUDDIED UP AT THE MOMENT BY SMALL SCALE FEATURES NOT WELL RESOLVED
THIS FAR OUT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ON FRIDAY
AND PERSIST AROUND OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ANY
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY PASSED BY
THE AREA ON FRIDAY SO LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED.
THEREFORE...THE LOCATION OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR
DETERMINING LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE LOWER FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BUT STILL IN A RESPECTABLE CATEGORY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. BEYOND SATURDAY...CONVECTION CHANCES LOOK TO BE LOW. A
FRONT MAY MAKE A RUN AT THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT MODELS SHOW THIS
FRONT TO STOP SHORT. OTHERWISE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST US PLACING WEST TEXAS UNDER
A MONSOONAL FLOW REGIME BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  59  85  61  90 /  30  40  20  20  10
TULIA         90  62  86  63  91 /  40  40  30  30  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  87  65  92 /  40  40  30  30  10
LEVELLAND     89  64  88  65  91 /  40  40  30  30  10
LUBBOCK       91  67  90  68  94 /  50  50  30  30  10
DENVER CITY   90  65  90  66  93 /  40  50  30  30  10
BROWNFIELD    90  65  90  66  94 /  40  50  30  30  10
CHILDRESS     93  70  91  71  96 /  50  50  30  30  10
SPUR          93  67  91  68  95 /  60  50  30  30  10
ASPERMONT     95  70  94  71  97 /  50  50  40  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
104
FXUS64 KLUB 280502
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1202 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LIGHT/STEADY RAIN APPROACHING CDS APPEARS ON TRACK TO
DECAY...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP THERE THRU 08Z SHOULD NOT BE ENUF TO
PUSH CONDS BELOW VFR. NEAR LBB...SPOTTY SHRA AND A FEW TSRA LOOK
TO DRIFT NEARBY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

BETTER CHANCE AND COVERAGE OF TSRA /SOME STRONG OR SEVERE/ LOOKS
TO EMERGE THU AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER
TROUGH IMPACTS THE REGION. COULD SEE TSRA DEVELOP AS SOON AS THE
LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR NOW REMAINS IN
THE AFTN UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WILL KEEP A PROB30 AS
TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES WHILE RAISING VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IR SATELLITE
DATA IN THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A RESPECTABLE MATURATION OF
CONVECTION IN FLOYD COUNTY COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL-SCALE MCV
OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF FLOYDADA AT 930 PM PER 88D DATA. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN PAST DAYS...THESE SMALL FEATURES HAVE TENDED TO
FOCUS THE LION/S SHARE OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP AND THIS CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE TONIGHT FOR OUR NERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL AND MORE DIFFUSE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AREA WIDE CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME. NO OTHER UPDATES NECESSARY
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  20  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  90  67 /  20  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  30  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
884
FXUS64 KLUB 280251 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
951 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO LOWER POPS IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES WHILE RAISING VALUES
IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. IR SATELLITE
DATA IN THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A RESPECTABLE MATURATION OF
CONVECTION IN FLOYD COUNTY COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL-SCALE MCV
OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF FLOYDADA AT 930 PM PER 88D DATA. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN PAST DAYS...THESE SMALL FEATURES HAVE TENDED TO
FOCUS THE LION/S SHARE OF NOCTURNAL PRECIP AND THIS CERTAINLY
APPEARS TO BE THE CASE TONIGHT FOR OUR NERN COUNTIES...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL AND MORE DIFFUSE SHOWERS/TSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
AREA WIDE CONSIDERING THE NUMBER OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
A WEAKLY UNSETTLED SWLY FLOW REGIME. NO OTHER UPDATES NECESSARY
ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
SCTD TSRA AT 630 PM ABOUT 15W LBB MOVG NE WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDER
THRU 02Z AT LBB...BUT OVERALL THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE HOURS AHEAD. EARLIER TS AT CDS HAVE
SINCE DISSIPATED AND CONDS THERE LOOK TO BE QUIET THRU THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
18Z THU JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO CDS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ENTERED GENERIC PROB30S FOR BOTH TERMINALS
AS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TS AT THIS POINT ARE UNCLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  20  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  20  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  20  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  90  67 /  20  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  20  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  30  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
891
FXUS64 KLUB 272337
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
SCTD TSRA AT 630 PM ABOUT 15W LBB MOVG NE WARRANT A TEMPO THUNDER
THRU 02Z AT LBB...BUT OVERALL THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE IN THE HOURS AHEAD. EARLIER TS AT CDS HAVE
SINCE DISSIPATED AND CONDS THERE LOOK TO BE QUIET THRU THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AROUND OR AFTER
18Z THU JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE FROM LBB TO CDS AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. ENTERED GENERIC PROB30S FOR BOTH TERMINALS
AS THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF TS AT THIS POINT ARE UNCLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
UT WITH EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX SITTING UNDER A PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING SUCKED INTO THE LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS NM ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT.
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHANCE MENTION HAVING BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
WHILE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE TO OUR WEST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO FIRE SHALLOW CONVECTION.
ONE NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE 15Z HRRR DEVELOPING A LINE SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OBSERVED. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO FORM JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST PUTTING A MAJORITY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET HELPING PROMOTE DIVERGENCE. DUE TO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES SUB-LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. ONE ISSUE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE FA WITH THE
FARTHEST EXTENT BEING ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO BROWNFIELD. CAA
WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS FRONT WITH TEMPS MODERATING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S. WITH THE FRONT BEING WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD NOT BE
TOO HUGE OF AN ISSUE WHICH WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM MELTING THE
PAVEMENT OFF OF ROADS.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH NOTED ACROSS NERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTN...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
PWATS TO INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE FA
WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL AID IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH MAY IMPINGE ON THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE...NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD AID IN
CONTINUAL PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...UL SUPPORT WILL COMMENCE TO
DECLINE AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
MENTIONABLE POPS FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS NEAREST TO THE DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE APPEARS LOW AS A BIT OF A VEERING WIND
PROFILE LACKS SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.

BY SATURDAY...RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WASHED OUT/RETREATED NORTH...THE
LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT 10-14 POPS FOR NOW. A NEARBY
SFC TROUGH WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILST A BROAD UA LOW AFFECTING SRN CANADA/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THE SAID UA SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE FAR SERN
TX PANHANDLE MONDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A PRECIP FOCUS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS BEYOND FRIDAY ATTM...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS TRENDS HOLDS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
90S BY THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS OFF
THE CAPROCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  40  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  90  67 /  30  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  20  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
005
FXUS64 KLUB 272021
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
321 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OF INTEREST CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER
UT WITH EASTERN NM/WESTERN TX SITTING UNDER A PLUME OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING SUCKED INTO THE LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES MAKING
THEIR WAY ACROSS NM ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL TRIGGER OUR FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP LATER TONIGHT.
POPS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHANCE MENTION HAVING BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.
WHILE THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE TO OUR WEST...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVERHEAD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT. AS HAS BEEN SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO FIRE SHALLOW CONVECTION.
ONE NOTE OF INTEREST IS THE 15Z HRRR DEVELOPING A LINE SHALLOW
CONVECTION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS OBSERVED. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO FORM JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST PUTTING A MAJORITY OF OUR EASTERN ZONES IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET HELPING PROMOTE DIVERGENCE. DUE TO INCREASING
DIVERGENCE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES SUB-LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS. ONE ISSUE THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SURFACE FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT FAR INTO THE FA WITH THE
FARTHEST EXTENT BEING ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMIT TO BROWNFIELD. CAA
WILL BE RATHER WEAK WITH THIS FRONT WITH TEMPS MODERATING ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM WHAT WE WILL SEE TODAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS AND SOUTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW
90S. WITH THE FRONT BEING WEAK COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SHOULD NOT BE
TOO HUGE OF AN ISSUE WHICH WILL PREVENT HIGHS FROM MELTING THE
PAVEMENT OFF OF ROADS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH NOTED ACROSS NERN UTAH LATE THIS AFTN...IS PROGGED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWRD TO ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. A PERSISTENT UPSLOPE SFC REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR
PWATS TO INCREASE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE FA
WHICH COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL AID IN
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH MAY IMPINGE ON THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE...NRN SOUTH PLAINS AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HINTED AT BY MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH COULD AID IN
CONTINUAL PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER...UL SUPPORT WILL COMMENCE TO
DECLINE AS THE UA TROUGH EXITS EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTN.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
MENTIONABLE POPS FRIDAY...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS NEAREST TO THE DEPARTING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE APPEARS LOW AS A BIT OF A VEERING WIND
PROFILE LACKS SIGNIFICANT WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...HOWEVER LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN NOT BE RULED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS.

BY SATURDAY...RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PROGRESS EWRD ACROSS
THE CNTRL CONUS...THOUGH IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODEL
SOLUTIONS DISPLAY LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WASHED OUT/RETREATED NORTH...THE
LIGHT PRECIP APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT 10-14 POPS FOR NOW. A NEARBY
SFC TROUGH WILL PROMOTE BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS FOR THE
WEEKEND...WHILST A BROAD UA LOW AFFECTING SRN CANADA/NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL CAUSE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AS THE SAID UA SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...IT WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ACROSS THE FAR SERN
TX PANHANDLE MONDAY...WHICH COULD SERVE AS A PRECIP FOCUS. WILL
HOLD ON TO SILENT POPS BEYOND FRIDAY ATTM...THOUGH WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON LATER MODEL RUNS AND SEE IF THIS TRENDS HOLDS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER
80S-LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
90S BY THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY NEAR LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS OFF
THE CAPROCK BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  88  59  86  60 /  40  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  88  62  86  63 /  40  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     66  89  63  87  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LEVELLAND     66  91  64  88  64 /  30  40  40  20  20
LUBBOCK       69  91  67  91  67 /  30  40  40  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    67  93  65  90  65 /  30  40  40  20  20
CHILDRESS     73  92  69  90  70 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          68  94  66  91  67 /  20  50  50  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  70  94  70 /  20  50  50  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29
271
FXUS64 KLUB 271716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1216 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
RAIN/CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS
TONIGHT BUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR -TSRA WILL EXIST NEAR BOTH
TERMINALS. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE GREATER AT CDS TOMORROW AFTER
12Z WITH A CHANCE STILL POSSIBLE AT LBB. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF
THE COVERAGE AND TIMING...PRECIP MENTION WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH THE TAFS BEING UPDATED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        61  87  58  87  61 /  40  30  30  30  20
TULIA         65  87  62  89  63 /  40  30  30  30  20
PLAINVIEW     65  87  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     65  88  63  89  64 /  30  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  90  66  91  67 /  20  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   66  91  64  92  65 /  20  30  30  30  20
BROWNFIELD    66  91  64  92  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     72  91  69  91  70 /  20  40  40  30  30
SPUR          68  93  66  93  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  96  70 /  20  40  40  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51
178
FXUS64 KLUB 271144
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
644 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE TODAY. COVERAGE OF -TSRA WILL
BE HIGHER TO THE WEST OF BOTH TERMINALS...BUT A STORM IN THE
VICINITY OF EITHER TERMINAL CAN/T BE RULED OUT. CHANCES OF A -TSRA
IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL MAY INCREASE TONIGHT. STRONG...ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS AND LOW VSBYS IN THE VICINITY OF RAIN SHAFTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY...SRLY
SURFACE WINDS AOB 12 KTS WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
892
FXUS64 KLUB 270907
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
407 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY WED MORNING AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS OUT OF ERN NM INTO WTX. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN MINIMAL THE PAST HOUR PER WTLMA BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX
PANHANDLE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE LOCATED. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY...THE CWA WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A RICH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED BY AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO COLORADO. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOT ONLY SHOWS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS
MORNING....BUT SEEMS TO SHOW A ENHANCED SLUG OF MOISTURE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO SC NM. THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A STREAM OF
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...LIKELY MAXIMIZED OVER OUR WRN/NW
ZONES. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ACROSS OUR WEST/NW ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING. WHILE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DRY IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS...WE HAVE SEEN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN
THIS AREA EACH OF THE LAST COUPLE AFTERNOONS AND CAN/T REALLY SEE A
REASON THAT THIS WOULDN/T BE THE CASE TODAY. THE ONLY DOWNSIDE MAY
BE THE EXTENSIVE MID-LVL CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AND COULD DECREASE THE SURFACE INSTABILITY. BACK TO THE
WEST....PROGGED QPF IS NOT OUTSTANDING IN THE MODEL REALM BUT GIVEN
THE HIGH PWATS...RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTION...AND POSSIBILITY OF
SOME TRAINING CELLS THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE NW SPLNS INTO THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE. QUITE A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SO WE WILL LIMIT MENTION TO THE HWO.
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS SWERLY MID-LVL FLOW
MAINTAINS THE MOISTURE FETCH AND PERIODS OF LIFT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CHANCES OF RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE COME IN LESS
OPTIMISTIC ON WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THOUGH. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE
IN THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AS THE TROUGH NEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE...AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL AID IN THE LIFT ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND LINGER
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT EXTENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL BE
LOST BY FRIDAY MORNING RELYING ONLY ON THE FRONT AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.5 CLOSE TO
AN INCREDIBLE 2.0 INCHES AT CHILDRESS. CALCULATING A QUICK AND
DIRTY AVERAGE GIVES ABOUT 175-200 PERCENT OR NORMAL. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAY BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THICKNESS VALUES QUICKLY RISING AND GUIDANCE INDICATING
TEMPERATURES BACK WELL INTO THE 90S NEARING 100 DEGREES OFF THE
CAPROCK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        88  61  87  58  87 /  30  40  30  30  30
TULIA         89  65  87  62  89 /  30  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     89  65  87  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     89  65  88  63  89 /  20  30  30  30  30
LUBBOCK       93  69  90  66  91 /  20  20  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   91  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
BROWNFIELD    92  66  91  64  92 /  20  20  30  30  30
CHILDRESS     96  72  91  69  91 /  20  20  40  40  30
SPUR          94  68  93  66  93 /  20  20  40  40  30
ASPERMONT     97  72  97  69  96 /  20  20  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
342
FXUS64 KLUB 270430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PERHAPS
A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING THUNDER AT KCDS. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN
TAF ATTM.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  20  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  20  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  20  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  20  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
035
FXUS64 KLUB 262313
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST NEAR BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET. ONCE AGAIN....TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN A STORM IMPACTING A GIVEN TERMINAL REMAINS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION IN TAF ATTM.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
489
FXUS64 KLUB 262012
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVERHEAD WITH THE REGION
ENGULFED IN A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE. WHILE THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE MAKES IT RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY SHORTWAVES IN THE
REGION...ONE IS LIGHTLY OBSERVED ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS WHAT IS KEEPING CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AND THIS CLOUD COVER WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED QUITE A BIT SINCE THIS
MORNING WITH JUST ONE STUBBORN SHOWER REMAINING OVER NORTHERN
SWISHER COUNTY. THE RAIN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AS SOME INGREDIENTS REMAIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER THERE ARE ALSO INGREDIENTS TO HINDER
CONVECTION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT CREATED THE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES IS MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA LEAVING NO
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS SOME SURFACE
BOUNDARIES REMAIN FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES BUT ALSO ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
CURRENT CLOUD COVER. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING MAY HELP IN WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS SHOWN BY SOME POPCORN CU DEVELOPING
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDY AREAS. ISO THUNDER MENTION FOR THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE KEPT DURING THE FIRST PERIOD FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA.

RAIN DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY WEDNESDAY OVER NM AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NV PUSHES EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THIS AREA AND HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH LOW 90 HIGHS FOR THE REST
OF THE AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AS THICK CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED WITH SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING. TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
AN UA TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS NEVADA IS PROGGED TO DIG ESE TO NEAR
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION THURSDAY TO FINALLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...THUS BRINGING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL BY
THE LATTER-HALF OF THE WEEK. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL COMMENCE TO FALL
TOMORROW NIGHT...WHILST PWATS CLIMB INTO THE 1.30-1.80 INCH RANGE
THANKS TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME. MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBITED MID-UPPER
LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL...PARTLY AIDED BY A STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE MARIE.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES NEAREST TO THE UL SUPPORT TOMORROW
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES SPREADING EWRD THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UA TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UA TROUGH...BE IT NEARING THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE/NRN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NRN ROLLING PLAINS ON FRIDAY PER THE NAM AND GFS...OR WASHING
OUT ACROSS THE NRN-HALF OF THE FA PER THE ECMWF. HENCE...FINE
DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE IRONED OUT. PRECIP WILL LINGER MAINLY
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS SATURDAY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE THE UA
TROUGH FINALLY EXITS EAST OF THE FA BY LATE AFTN. SOME LOCALES COULD
SEE MODERATE-HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GIVEN THE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DUE TO THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDINESS...TEMPS
WILL FALL TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW NORM THURSDAY-SATURDAY /UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S/.

BY SUNDAY...UA RIDGING /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ WILL MOVE ACROSS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS HENCE ALLOWING FOR A BIT OF ATMOSPHERIC DRYING AS
HINTED AT BY PROGGED LOWERED PWATS. THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES COUPLED WITH A NEARBY SFC TROUGH PROMOTING
BREEZY SRLY SFC WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORM /MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  88  61  86  58 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         65  91  64  86  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  90  65  86  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  90  64  87  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       69  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   66  92  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  92  66  90  64 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  96  71  90  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  94  68  92  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  97  72  96  69 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29
536
FXUS64 KLUB 261708
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z AROUND
LBB...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND WILL BE KEPT OUT OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        62  89  61  86  60 /  20  30  30  30  30
TULIA         64  92  64  89  62 /  20  30  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     64  92  66  89  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     65  92  69  90  63 /  20  20  20  30  30
LUBBOCK       68  93  69  90  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   65  92  69  91  65 /  20  20  20  30  30
BROWNFIELD    66  93  70  91  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
CHILDRESS     74  97  71  93  69 /  10  10  20  40  40
SPUR          69  95  73  94  66 /  10  10  20  40  40
ASPERMONT     74  98  73  95  70 /  10  10  20  40  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

51/29/51
524
FXUS64 KLUB 261130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.AVIATION...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF KLBB THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IF AND WHEN A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS REASONABLE FOR KLBB...WHILE KCDS LOOKS EVEN MORE
OF A LONG-SHOT. SO WE WILL THUNDER OUT OF BOTH SITES FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  62  89  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
TULIA         93  64  92  64  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     93  64  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     91  65  92  69  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       94  69  93  69  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  65  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    94  66  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     99  74  97  71  93 /  10  10  10  20  40
SPUR          97  69  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT    100  74  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05
633
FXUS64 KLUB 260911
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
411 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
VERY SUBTLE FEATURES IN A MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO
CAUSE TROUBLE FOR SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN FROM MISSOURI THROUGH OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS WHILE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIPPLES IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW HAVE BEEN BIG
PLAYERS FOR CONVECTIVE AREAS AND MAY CONTINUE SO AGAIN TODAY. ONE
WEAK WAVE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING...ANOTHER EVEN MORE SUBTLE MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST...AND PERHAPS A
MORE ENERGETIC RIPPLE WAS GATHERING ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
NORTHERN MEXICO. OTHER THAN THE ACTIVITY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE OTHER TWO WAVES
SHOULD FAVOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS.
GIVEN THE GENEROUS COVERAGE OBSERVED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WE HAVE
OPTED TO EXPAND THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OR
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE COMING 24 HOUR PERIOD. SLOW
MOVEMENT AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25
AND 1.5 INCHES BRING CHANCE FOR MORE ISOLATED HEAVIER SHOWERS.
RETAINED A MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MAP TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS
OBSERVED HIGHS...THOUGH THINK WESTERN AREAS COULD DROP SLIGHTLY
GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST ZONES THOUGH SURFACE
INSTABILITY MAY BE LACKING FOR STRONGER STORMS. RMCQUEEN

&&

.LONG TERM...
WE WILL BE MOVING TO A MORE WETTER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THIS WEEK BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA WILL FLATTEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE ALLOWED INTO THE REGION
WITH HEIGHT FALLS OVERHEAD BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
BE PLENTIFUL WITH SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD
WITH SOME ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE MARIE IN THE EAST PACIFIC.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES OR ABOUT 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL CREATE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE TROUGH EXERTS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE AREA...WESTERN AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR
CONVECTION AS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AND BRING A COLD FRONT WITH IT SIMULTANEOUSLY.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT LATE THIS WEEK. EVEN SO...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL GREATLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        90  62  89  61  86 /  30  20  30  30  30
TULIA         93  64  92  64  89 /  20  20  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     93  64  92  66  89 /  20  20  20  20  30
LEVELLAND     91  65  92  69  90 /  20  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       94  68  93  69  90 /  20  10  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   93  65  92  69  91 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    94  66  93  70  91 /  20  10  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     99  74  97  71  93 /  10  10  10  20  40
SPUR          97  69  95  73  94 /  10  10  10  20  40
ASPERMONT    100  74  98  73  95 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/01
952
FXUS64 KLUB 260442
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
LATEST CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE ERN PNHDL WITH
A SMALL GROUP POSSIBLY IMPACTING KCDS TERMINAL AT ISSUANCE. ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WILL BE TOO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN TAFS.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TUE WITH MORE SCT CLOUDS IN THE
AFTN WITH ANY POTENTIAL CIGS VFR. BETTER STORM CHANCES SHIFT WELL N
OF BOTH TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING BUT ANY SUBTLE DISTURBANCE OR
REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD SPARK MORE ISOLD STORMS. VRBL WINDS THROUGH
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SERLY IN THE AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24
879
FXUS64 KLUB 260309 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1009 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST MANY OF THE SHORT TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. NUMEROUS OUTFLOWS CONTINUE TO ROAM
THE REGION...WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO HANGING
ON...THOUGH WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY. THAT SAID...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY MOIST
MID-LEVELS...RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND PERHAPS EVEN A
LINGERING MCV OR TWO. HENCE...WE HAVE EXTENDED MINIMAL STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR SPOTS UP ON THE
CAPROCK. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

..AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/23
552
FXUS64 KLUB 252338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

...AVIATION...
CONCERNS OF CONVECTION IMPACTING KLBB TERMINAL CONTINUES TO WANE
AS ADVANCING OUTFLOWS FAIL TO PRODUCE NEW STORMS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SCT LOW-MID CLOUD
IN WITH NON-ZERO THREAT OF CB DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT OR TUE AFTN.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE ANY
OUTFLOW THAT DOES MANAGE TO PASS THE TERMINAL. KCDS FURTHER
REMOVED FM ACTIVITY BUT ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT TERMINAL AROUND
ISSUANCE TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DROPPING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST
NIGHT/S AND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES. IN GENERAL...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD
OF ALTOCU HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH
VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND
LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS.

LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  20  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  20  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  20  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  20  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  20  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  10   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51/24
914
FXUS64 KLUB 251906
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH THE MAIN FLOW WELL TO OUR NORTH.  A DROPPING OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LARGELY CUT OFF ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE SURFACE
PATTERN IS QUITE COMPLEX GIVEN THE OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT/S AND
THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEXES.  IN GENERAL...WEAK CONVERGENGE IS
NOTED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND A FIELD OF ALTOCU HAS
BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.  SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST PULSE-TYPE ACTIVITY WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.  PWATS ARE FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH VALUES BETWEEN 1-1.5
INCHES AND AS SUCH...SOME EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS ARE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND LARGELY REMAIN DRY FOR
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGE IN THE LONGTERM FORECAST AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
TRY AND FIND SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THE FROPA LATER THIS WEEK.
OUR LOW OF INTEREST THAT WILL BRING DOWN THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SPINNING AWAY IN NORTHERN CAL. THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF
THE LOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW BEING POSITIONED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE 4 CORNERS PUTTING US IN A WEAK DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.
A LEE TROF WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW IN WHICH WILL BE OUR COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUTTING US IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WHICH
WILL CREATE SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT HELPING AID IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE TROF. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
OF BIG CONCERN AS 0 TO 6KM SHEAR WILL BE AT BEST UP TO 25 KTS. SOME
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE HOWEVER AS
INVERTED V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE PROMINENT. PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. AREA
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWATS REMAIN RELATIVELY
HIGH...1.3 INCHES IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO NEARLY 2 INCHES IN
OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS WILL CHANGE BY MID WEEKEND AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FULLY. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FROPA WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TO THE EAST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST SOLUTION WITH THE TROF EXITING
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW THE FROPA WILL BE KEPT DURING EARLY
FRIDAY IN THE FORECAST. THE TEMP FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER
TRICKY WITH GUIDANCE FLUCTUATING WITH EACH RUN AND THEY WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CLOUD/PRECIP COVER. CURRENT
THINKING ATM IS THAT GUIDANCE IS RUNNING RATHER WARM FOR HIGHS AND
COOL FOR LOWS. HIGHS HAVE BEEN TRENDED TOWARDS THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER AND CAA WHILE LOWS ARE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD DUE TO HAVING RATHER MOIST AIR THUS PREVENTING TEMPS FROM
COOLING OFF AS MUCH AS THEY COULD.

AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...ANOTHER LEE TROF DEVELOPS BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BRINGING RETURN FLOW TO THE FA WHICH WILL WARM TEMPS BACK
TO THE 90S. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE BUT WILL BE WEAK DUE TO
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  90  63  89  60 /  30  10  20  20  20
TULIA         65  92  65  92  63 /  30  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     65  92  65  92  65 /  30  10  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     64  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       69  94  68  93  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   65  93  65  92  68 /  30  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    65  94  66  93  69 /  30  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS     72  98  72  97  70 /  20  10  10  10  20
SPUR          69  96  69  95  72 /  20   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT     72  98  73  98  72 /  10   0  10  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

26/51
999
FXUS64 KLUB 251727
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
GREATEST THREAT FOR TSTMS APPEARS TO EXIST AT KLBB FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ISO RASH HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL INVOF ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26
890
FXUS64 KLUB 251112
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
612 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AN MCV OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT CONVECTION SUSTAINED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS. MODELS HAVE
BASICALLY NOT PICKED UP ON THIS ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY PERSIST AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF KLBB AND
DRIFT EASTWARD. HOWEVER...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT
TO MAKE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF AT THE MOMENT. GREATER CHANCES FOR
THUNDER WILL EXIST AT KLBB THAN AT KCDS. OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS
WERE STILL GOING CLOSE TO KCDS BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE TAF SITE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  70  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  50  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  30  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
935
FXUS64 KLUB 250952
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
452 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FROM YESTERDAY BUT ONLY
THE LOCATION OF CONVECTION. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH
THROUGH NEW MEXICO ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE
CONTINUED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE TODAY BUT IT MAY NOT
HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON INHIBITING CONVECTION WITH DEEP MIXING
UNDER HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS WILL BE
NEARLY ABSENT AGAIN WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE WEST
IN NEW MEXICO. A CHUNK OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS
WAY INTO NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AREA WIDE WITH ANOMALIES AROUND 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL. A MAX IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO EXIST ALTHOUGH IN A MORE WESTERLY POSITION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING...THIS WILL YIELD AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY. FURTHERMORE...WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SHUNT THE BULK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WEST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY AND MAYBE EVEN WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BEGIN FALLING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING
ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE VERY SLOW PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO
SWING JUST TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
ALSO SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THOUGH MAY NOT
PASS ALL AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY OR EVEN EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO
MAKES MUCH BETTER SENSE TO US...SO WE HAVE TRIMMED MOST SHOWERS
BACK A BIT PRIOR TO THAT ALTHOUGH STILL FAVORING WESTERN BORDER
AREAS. THEN WE HAVE EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CENTERED ON LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD WE EXPECT PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO SPIKE CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL GIVE
CAPABILITY OF MODERATE OR HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH
THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SLOW PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. DRYING AND WARMING STILL APPEARS TO FOLLOW BY LATER
SATURDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  93  66  90 /  30  30  10  20  20
TULIA         94  68  95  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  94  67  92 /  20  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     96  69  94  67  92 /  30  30  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       96  71  96  71  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  69  94  67  93 /  30  30  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    97  70  95  68  93 /  20  20  10  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  72 101  73  98 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          99  71  98  71  95 /  10  10   0  10  10
ASPERMONT    101  76 101  73  99 /  10  10   0  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

02/05

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