Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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175
FXUS64 KLUB 230013
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
713 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG
AT ALL THREE TERMINALS...SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY AT KCDS...EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WE HAVE INDICATED A MVFR PERIOD IN THE TAFS. ANY FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15 UTC. SW SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BECOMING BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
HEIGHT FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ON TRACK TO REACH THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. DIFFUSE
SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH TO THE TX-
NM BORDER AND WILL REDUCE IN LENGTH AS A DECAYING COLD FRONT SETTLES
INTO THE NW PANHANDLE BY MON MORNING. RESERVOIR OF MOISTURE IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS WILL REMAIN INTACT TONIGHT AND PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR EARLY A.M. FOG GENERALLY OFF THE CAPROCK.

BY MIDDAY MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE EXITED
EAST OF THE REGION AHEAD OF STRONGER AND DEEPER W-SW FLOW. THIS
PROCESS WILL AID IN BIRTHING AN AFTERNOON DRYLINE ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS ALL THE WHILE PRESSURE FALLS FOCUS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION
AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH IN COLORADO. SCANT BACKGROUND ASCENT THIS FAR
SOUTH OF THE UPPER IMPULSE SPELLS NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CU
ALONG THE DRYLINE.

OUR ONLY CONCERN ON MONDAY IS FOR NEAR-CRITICAL WILDFIRE CONDITIONS
MAINLY IN OUR NWRN COUNTIES NEAR THE EDGE OF 20-30 KNOT WIND MAX
FROM 850-700MB. WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS /RECORD HIGH LIKELY AT
LBB/ WILL SINK RELATIVE HUMIDITIES INTO THE TEENS...BUT THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF 20-FT WIND SPEEDS NECESSARY FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO BE TOO MARGINAL.

LONG TERM...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND OF DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH BELOW
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS TRANSLATES EAST THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TUESDAY MORNING AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL VEER SLIGHTLY
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM NEAR RECORD VALUES IN SOME SPOTS
ON MONDAY. TUESDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER
80S WHICH IS APPROX 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH WILL PEAK IN THE MID/LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND SUBSIDE A
LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP OUR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW.

ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW SLOWLY EVOLVES INTO A BROAD TROUGH AXIS SETTING
UP WEDNESDAY TO OUR WEST WITHIN A INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE BUT GFS
PICKS UP ON SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG COLD FRONT THAT REACHES OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR NOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEST TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEAVING AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE
UNDER STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MANY OF US
STRUGGLING TO REACH 60 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. GFS INDICATES SOME
SHOWER CHANCES ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE AND TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES INDICATE
SOME QPF BUT LEFT POPS BELOW MENTION AT THIS POINT GIVEN DOUBT IN
MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN AN OTHERWISE DRY MODIFIED AIR MASS.

RIDGING PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST SIGN OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NOT
COMING UNTIL TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        41  84  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         43  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     44  84  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     44  84  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       46  86  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   45  84  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    46  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     49  86  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          48  85  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     50  85  59  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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