Area Forecast Discussion
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201
FXUS64 KLUB 251126 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
526 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THIS MORNING AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AROUND SUNSET WHICH WILL SWING THE WIND TO THE NORTH
AND USHER IN A LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW
LOW THE CEILINGS WILL BE BUT EXPECT THEM TO START OFF MVFR WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME SNOW AT KPVW AND KLBB BUT
PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME IN THE TAFS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM...
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED
LOW MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW.  THE
DRIER AIR HAS HELPED TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS THAT WERE
MOVING FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS.  AT THE SURFACE...DEWPOINTS WERE SOMEWHAT LOWER
ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WERE NARROWING JUST A BIT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.  SURFACE WIND HAS VEERED TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS.  WITH A BREAK
IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND A SLOW
CONTINUED VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
MANAGE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL BE A NICE...ALTHOUGH BRIEF...BREAK FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN.

AS THE CLOSED LOW SWINGS OUT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...A QUICK MOVING AND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  WIND SPEEDS WILL RAMP UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP.
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE CAPROCK AND NEAR 30 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  ALSO DIVING SOUTH WILL BE A DECENT SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL PROVIDE SOME WEAK LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.  TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BE ALL BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT TO SEE ALL SNOW IN THIS AREA.  SOME OF THE SNOW COULD MAKE IT
AS FAR SOUTH AS A BROWNFIELD...LUBBOCK...TO SILVERTON LINE WHILE THE
ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD MISS OUT.  ACCUMULATIONS MAY MANAGE TO MAKE IT
UP TO AN INCH UP AROUND DIMMITT AND FRIONA BEFORE SUNRISE AS THIS IS
THE MOST FAVORED AREA IN THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION.  SINCE THERE
HAS BEEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS...OPTED TO BUMP POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BUT ALSO SLOW HOW FAST THE SNOW SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER IS IN STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR AND MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK...AND MAYBE EVEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

INITIALLY AFTER 12Z ON THURSDAY WE COULD SOME LINGERING SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND COVERAGE WILL
WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER SUPPORT EXITS TO THE EAST AND DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN AT THE LOWER LEVELS. STILL...AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO
MAYBE AS MUCH AS A HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AFTER 12Z RESIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY...THOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
COULD LINGER NEAR THE TX/NM LINE. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CHILLY...WITH READINGS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER 20S
NORTHWEST TO LOWER OR MIDDLE 30S SOUTHEAST.

THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO WEST TEXAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH MOST SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE PAIRED WITH BRISK EASTERLY
WINDS WHICH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DOWN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
ZERO. IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER...IN
THE FORM OF A LOW AMPLITUDE BUT ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THAT
WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS SOME
QUESTION REGARDING THE EXACT LATITUDE IT WILL MOVE BY...AND THIS
RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY WHERE THE BEST SWATH OF
SNOW WILL BE DROPPED. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION IS FURTHEST
NORTH...AND WOULD FAVOR OUR NORTHERLY ZONES...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 100 MILE FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH IN TURN RESULTS IN
THE ENTIRE CWA RECEIVING A DECENT QUICK BURST OF SNOW LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS
AND PAINT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER
THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION. INITIALLY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR...BUT ONCE IT DOES SO...THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SHOULD
SUPPORT RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW RATIOS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS. EVEN
SO...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY WANE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RACES OFF TO THE EAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...THOUGH THIS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK. WE DO PLAN
ON ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ADVERTISE THE NEXT BOUT
OF COLD AND WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES COULD LINGER FROM LATE FRIDAY ON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PERSISTS. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER QUICK MOVING RIPPLE IN THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGHT THEN RACE BY ON SATURDAY...ENHANCING
THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT...THOUGH CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
MAY BE DIRECTED TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA KEEPING THE
PROSPECTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME LIGHT MOISTURE. THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM
AIR ATTEMPTS TO DISLODGE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY STEADY OR EVEN RISE GIVEN THE STRONG
WAA...THOUGH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL LIKELY FOLLOW SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF THE NEXT
INVADING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE WINTRY MIX SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...DEPENDING HOW COLD THE AIR IS BEHIND THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. ATTM...WE HAVE KEPT MOST OF THE AREA
LIQUID...THOUGH DO ADVERTISE A RA/SN MIX ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO EJECT EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THE 00Z GFS EVEN SUGGESTS THE WARM SECTOR COULD
SURGE NORTHWARD FAR ENOUGH TO BRING A SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z GFS ARE
LESS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE COOL SURFACE AIRMASS BEING DISLODGED
THAT QUICKLY. EVEN ONCE WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW
EJECTS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
RELOAD...SO THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  23  28  10 /   0  50  30  70
TULIA         56  24  29  12 /   0  30  20  60
PLAINVIEW     58  26  30  13 /   0  30  20  60
LEVELLAND     59  27  33  14 /   0  20  20  50
LUBBOCK       60  27  33  13 /   0  20  20  50
DENVER CITY   58  29  35  17 /   0  10  20  40
BROWNFIELD    59  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  40
CHILDRESS     57  27  33  15 /   0  20  10  30
SPUR          60  29  35  16 /   0  10  20  30
ASPERMONT     59  30  36  20 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99

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