Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Skip options and go directly to product.
Home | Oldest Version | Previous Version | Current Version | All | Text Only | Save Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On

Skip product version selection by date and time.   
040
FXUS64 KLUB 012019
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
319 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN ACROSS A
GREATER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRYLINE STRETCHING FROM
NEAR CHILDRESS...BACK SOUTHWEST TO JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK...DOWN TO
BROWNFIELD.  DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE DRYLINE ZONE ARE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S WITH LOW TO MID 60S EAST OF THE DRYLINE.  TEMPERATURES
ALOFT HAVE WARMED A BIT AND EVEN WITH DEEP MIXING...LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  ONLY MODEL THAT PAINTS
ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE IS THE NAM WHICH HAS A SMALL SLIVER OF 2000
J/KG CAPES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA.  COMPARED
TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...CU FIELD HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET SO
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW IN OUR AREA SEEING ANY POPS TONIGHT.  WENT
AHEAD AND REMOVED POPS FROM THE AREA WHICH WAS MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.

FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID-DAY.
TIMING AMONGST THE MODELS IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE WITH A
RAPID PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY MID-DAY.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT SO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE APPEARS TO BE DRY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE FRONT MAY ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH TO
COOL TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES.  REST OF THE
AREA WILL SEE THE FRONT HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES BELOW WHAT WE SAW TODAY. NORTH WIND WILL BE A BIT GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY STIR UP SOME BLOWING DUST.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ANY
DUST SHOULD SETTLE THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN A FAIRLY PLEASANT
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TOMORROW.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING...WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
ONCE BREEZY NRLY WINDS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT BY NIGHTFALL WHILST UNDERNEATH CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHILLY MORNING ON FRIDAY...WITH MODEL GUIDANCE HINTING AT TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER
50S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. WITH ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT
BACK-DOORING THROUGH THE CWA ON FRIDAY COURTESY OF AN ESEWRD
PROPAGATING UA LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...CAA WILL MAINTAIN
ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND 70S
/SOME 5-7 DEGREES BELOW NORM/. SFC WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SRLY
FLOW BY SATURDAY...THANKS TO A DEPARTING SFC RIDGE AND A NEARBY
DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARM-UP WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND 80S...WHICH MAY BE A WELCOME CHANGE
CONSIDERING ANOTHER COOL START TO THE MORNING IS ONCE AGAIN ON TAP
/40S AND 50S/.

LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN AMPLIFIED UA RIDGE
ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WILL PROMOTE NWRLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW
WOULD USUALLY RAISE EYEBROWS FOR CONVECTION TO IMPINGE ON THE
REGION FROM THE HIGHER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT
THE CASE THIS TIME GIVEN DRIER ENTRAINED AIR HAS BEEN BROUGHT IN
BY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE FA ON
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
LITTLE ELSE...DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY MID-HIGH ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS.
SHOULD SEE TEMPS CONTINUE ITS WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE LONG TERM...A FEW
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN CONUS BREAKING DOWN
AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SWRLY MID-LATE WEEK...AND THUS
MOISTURE FROM AN ERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL STREAM ACROSS
THE AREA WHILST S-SE SFC WINDS DRAWS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
RAINFALL WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON IF THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
INDEED COME INTO FRUITION. HENCE...WILL OPT FOR SILENT POPS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        51  70  42  69  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         53  73  45  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     54  73  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     55  73  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       56  74  47  73  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   55  76  48  73  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    56  76  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     61  79  47  75  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
SPUR          60  79  49  75  49 /  10  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     69  82  51  78  51 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.