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843
FXUS64 KLUB 301129 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
629 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS. SHOWERS ARE MOVING
ACROSS THE KCDS TAF SITE THIS MORNING WHILE MOST OF THE PRECIP IS
BYPASSING KLBB. EXPECT A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AFTER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY SPARK ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
PLACED PROB30 GROUPS IN BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTH WIND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND COULD
POTENTIALLY ALSO BRING IN MVFR TO HIGH IFR CEILINGS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE ON HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL BE IS NOT HIGH AND
WILL HOLD IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR NOW.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS MATCHES UP WITH
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700 HPA LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A PRETTY BIG
BATCH OF CONVECTION...AND RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NEW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS FOR THIS REGION.

NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE 00Z NAM/03Z RUC
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THROUGH THE
DAY.  REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STILL EXPECT TO SEE
THE FRONT HELP FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LACK OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE INSTEAD OF HAVING IT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 75 TO 99
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS FROM MORNING STORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT HIGHS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS
TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NORMALLY YIELD DECENT PROSPECTS FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA...AND THIS BRINGS QUESTION TO JUST HOW FAR EAST
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CAN MAKE IT EACH DAY. INSTEAD...THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E/INSTABILITY
AIR FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL...AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
EDGE ACROSS THE STATE LINE...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO PICK UP ON A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROTATING AROUND/THROUGH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVING TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM CHANCES
AND PERHAPS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES
AND SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID NOT FULLY BITE OFF ON THIS YET...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THEN...RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
A STORM...INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE HELD ON TO A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH WE DID DRY IT OUT BEYOND 18Z.

BY LATE WEEKEND IT DOES APPEAR THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BRING AN END TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS
THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WESTERN DISTURBANCES BREAK OVER/THROUGH THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ANY INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS EVEN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR EARLY
AUGUST. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP...AND THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  59  78  60  80 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         87  62  77  60  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  62  80  62  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  63  79  64  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  61  82  62  85 /  20  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  63  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  10  10
SPUR          93  66  80  64  86 /  30  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  69  83  66  87 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
964
FXUS64 KLUB 300914
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
414 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  00Z UPA ANALYSIS MATCHES UP WITH
WV SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700 HPA LOCATED
ACROSS COLORADO AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.  MODELS HAVE THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A PRETTY BIG
BATCH OF CONVECTION...AND RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING NEW CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO A LINE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO.  THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND
CLIP THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNRISE
RESULTING IN INCREASED POPS FOR THIS REGION.

NEXT FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.  THE 00Z NAM/03Z RUC
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHILE THE GFS
CONTINUES TO PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP THROUGH THE
DAY.  REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...STILL EXPECT TO SEE
THE FRONT HELP FOCUS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  LACK OF
CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA MAY KEEP BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE INSTEAD OF HAVING IT BEEN
WORKED OVER BY PRIOR CONVECTION.  PWAT VALUES ARE BETWEEN 75 TO 99
PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGH TEMPS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
80S ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD
SHIELD IS FROM MORNING STORMS WHICH MAY IMPACT HIGHS ACROSS THIS
AREA.  ADJUSTED POPS TO BETTER REFLECT THE BEST COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.  LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE KEEPS TEMPS A BIT
WARMER WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT HELPS
TEMPS ACROSS THE CAPROCK FALL INTO THE LOW 60S.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS
WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING AND BROAD
TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT. THIS
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD NORMALLY YIELD DECENT PROSPECTS FOR
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT STORMS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS.
HOWEVER...RATHER COOL AND STABLE AIR IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE AREA
BEHIND TODAY/S FROPA...AND THIS BRINGS QUESTION TO JUST HOW FAR EAST
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CAN MAKE IT EACH DAY. INSTEAD...THE CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO PROPAGATE MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E/INSTABILITY
AIR FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
STILL...AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION
EDGE ACROSS THE STATE LINE...AND GIVEN THIS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A
THUNDER MENTION ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO PICK UP ON A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY OFF
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...ROTATING AROUND/THROUGH THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DIVING TOWARD NORTHWEST TEXAS BY EARLY SATURDAY.
IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION...THIS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM CHANCES
AND PERHAPS SUPPORT PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES
AND SOUTH PLAINS. WE DID NOT FULLY BITE OFF ON THIS YET...THOUGH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE EXPANDED INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. BEFORE THEN...RATHER MOIST CONDITIONS AND PERTURBED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD MAINTAIN A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS...PERHAPS
A STORM...INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH A DIMINISHING TREND IS
EXPECTED. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE HELD ON TO A MINIMAL STORM MENTION
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH WE DID DRY IT OUT BEYOND 18Z.

BY LATE WEEKEND IT DOES APPEAR THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND BRING AN END TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS PATTERN
SHIFT SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION AS
THE MONSOONAL CONVECTION REMAINS TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST. THIS COULD EVENTUALLY CHANGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS ONE OR MORE WESTERN DISTURBANCES BREAK OVER/THROUGH THE
RIDGE...THOUGH ANY INCREASED STORM CHANCES WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY
HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING
WEEK AS EVEN THE UPPER RIDGING THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAKE CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG FOR EARLY
AUGUST. TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO BREAK UP...AND THIS WILL YIELD HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S. A SLOW WARMING TREND SHOULD FOLLOW THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OR ALL
OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        86  59  78  60  80 /  30  30  20  20  10
TULIA         87  62  77  60  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     89  62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  62  80  62  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
LUBBOCK       94  63  79  64  84 /  30  30  20  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  61  82  62  85 /  20  40  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  63  81  64  85 /  30  30  20  20  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  81  64  86 /  50  40  20  10  10
SPUR          93  66  80  64  86 /  30  40  20  10  10
ASPERMONT     98  69  83  66  87 /  30  40  20  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/23
897
FXUS64 KLUB 300446
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1146 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PERIODS. IMPACTING PRIMARILY CDS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY FEATURING PERIODIC
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
CLEARING THE AREA VERY EARLY IN THE MORNING...HOWEVER...A BKN TO
OVC DECK OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP SHORTLY
THEREAFTER CAUSING PERIODIC VSBY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR
CRITERIA. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A LESSER POSSIBILITY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION. ALL OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LBB AS WELL...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION. EARLY TOMORROW
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH BOTH TERMINALS...WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCES APPEAR GREATEST
AT CDS THUS WARRANTING A PROB30 MENTION...BUT TOO LOW FOR MENTION
AT LBB AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  60  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  40  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16
205
FXUS64 KLUB 292310
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER
A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MAY CREATE MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
REGARDING THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THIS CLOUD COVER...SO WILL TREAT
WITH A MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS THE TAFS FOR NOW. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PRIMARILY CDS AFTER 2 AM AND LASTING POTENTIALLY INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT LBB...SO WILL
EXCLUDE A TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AT BOTH TERMINALS TOMORROW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF STORMS IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16
555
FXUS64 KLUB 292210
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
510 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS...AND NOW IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OPTED TO INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS ACROSS THIS AREA...AND REMOVED THUNDER
MENTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z GIVEN THE
CURRENTLY STABLE AIRMASS AND LINGERING SPRINKLE ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORMS DO REMAIN A POSSIBILITY LATER IN THE EVENING...AND
THUS POPS REMAIN UNCHANGED BEYOND 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  60  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99
897
FXUS64 KLUB 292037
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
PRECIP ACROSS THE WRN FCST AREA FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS ALL BUT
DISSIPATED. BEST CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO COME FROM THE WEST
WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF NEW MEXICO FROM RUIDOSO THROUGH SANTA FE TO WEST OF RATON.
TODAYS EARLIER CONVECTION KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND THUS INSTABILITY
MINIMIZED...BUT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED TO COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE MODESTLY...
WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE NM CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT. UPPER FORCING AND THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE WITH
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NRN NM SUPPORT IDEA OF HIGH
POPS ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND LOWER SOUTH WHERE FORCING LESS
FAVORABLE. PREVIOUS FCST HANDLES WELL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENT TO PATTERN AND MAGNITUDE OF POPS. OTHER ITEM TO WATCH
IN THE NEAR TERM IS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FLOW COULD
BRING A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE SERN ZONES.

ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLE
WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE SWD THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
AND INTO THE NRN ZONES EARLY AFTN. WITH FAVORABLE DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S AND 60S...COULD SEE SOME STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
DURING THE AFTN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO LIKELY END UP PRODUCING A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
HIGHS PROBABLY FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH THANKS TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM AN ONGOING COMPLEX OF
STORMS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD
RESIDE MAINLY EAST OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND ROLLING
PLAINS...BUT COULD SEE A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
ACTIVITY SNEAK INTO THE REGION IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH HELP
FROM A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. OTHERWISE...ANY NEWLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...POTENTIALLY
STILL IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...
NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL STILL
EXIST TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION. ANY ACTIVITY TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS.

POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO A
COOL DAY ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO
LOW-MID 80S. THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD TRY TO BRING ISOLATED STORMS TO NEAR THE
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO STATE BORDER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THE
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS NOTED BY A CONTINUED FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL ATTEMPT TO INHIBIT THIS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL PUSH BACK EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF
TROUGHINESS MOVING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO VEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST OF WEST TEXAS INTO NEXT WEEK...
UNTIL DETAILS AS TO HOW THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BECOME CLEARER. WILL CONTINUE THE GENERAL
WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR NOW AS THICKNESSES/HEIGHTS SLOWLY
RISE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  61  78  60 /  50  30  30  20  20
TULIA         66  84  62  76  60 /  50  30  30  20  10
PLAINVIEW     66  89  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20  10
LEVELLAND     67  91  62  80  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
LUBBOCK       70  92  63  79  63 /  30  30  30  20  10
DENVER CITY   68  94  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  20  20
BROWNFIELD    68  93  63  81  64 /  20  30  30  20  10
CHILDRESS     69  89  67  81  64 /  50  30  40  20  10
SPUR          68  94  66  80  64 /  30  30  40  20  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  69  82  66 /  30  30  40  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/31
989
FXUS64 KLUB 291728
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1228 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
RAIN ACROSS WRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE BUT MAY YET STICK AROUND ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL
HAVE TO ADJUST POPS AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. STILL
LOOKING AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION BEHIND DRIVEN
EWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH NEAR THE 4-CORNERS. CURRENT FCST HANDLES WELL AND WILL THUS
ADDRESS THAT SCENARIO WITH THE AFTN FCST PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AT KLBB TO TAPER OFF AND NOT REALLY CAUSE ANY ISSUES
EARLY THIS AFTN WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS NEAR THE NM LINE ALSO
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS WEST TO ERN NM WHERE
ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF KLBB. KCDS WITH
BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING A TS TOWARD 06Z AND WILL KEEP PROB30
MENTION THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  80  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  70  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  80  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  69  93  62  79 /  80  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  50  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  50  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  30  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07
659
FXUS64 KLUB 291205 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. A VERY-SLOW
MOVING AREA OF RAIN...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL THUNDER...CONTINUES
EXPANDING FROM THE WESTERN INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS. RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH
OF THIS AREA WITH POCKETS UP TO TWO INCHES IN COCHRAN COUNTY. THE WEST
TEXAS MESONET SITE NEAR LEVELLAND HAS RECORDED ABOUT AN INCH WHICH
SUGGESTS RADAR MAY BE JUST SLIGHTLY UNDERESTIMATING. THIS AREA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAY BRING
SOME LOCAL FLOODING CONCERNS. ALSO OF NOTE IS ANOTHER..STRONGER...COMPLEX
BACK TO THE NW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS MOVING EAST AT A
GREATER CLIP. THIS COULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SW TX PANHANDLE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRING SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS TO THAT AREA AS
WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  80  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  70  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  80  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       86  69  94  63  79 /  70  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  50  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  50  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  30  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
286
FXUS64 KLUB 291132
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
632 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL APPROACH KLBB BY 12 UTC AND WE HAVE A TEMPO LASTING
THROUGH 16 UTC AS THE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY SLOW-MOVING. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH KCDS LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KCDS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHORT PERIODS OF LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY DUE TO MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN BUT KEPT REDUCTIONS MILD FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  70  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  60  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       86  69  94  63  79 /  50  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  30  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  30  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  40  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33
599
FXUS64 KLUB 290921
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
421 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE RISE THIS MORNING AS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
SLOWLY MOVES EAST. A VEERING LOW-LVL WIND PROFILE WITH A MODEST
20-25 KT SERLY JET SHOULD MAINTAIN ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE E-SEWD...WHILE A RICH RESERVOIR OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE /PWATS 1.5 INCHES OR SO/ SUPPORTS HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AT 3
AM...THE RAIN COVERAGE IS FAIRLY SCATTERED AND SHOWING A SMALL
INCREASING TREND...BUT IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE STATE LINE INTO THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND INTO A GRADUALLY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THE LAST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE BUT DECREASING
INTENSITY AS THE ACTIVITY EDGES INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS BY 6
AM OR SO. WITH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE NOT HANDLING THE CURRENT
SITUATION VERY WELL WE HAVE LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE HRRR AND
RAMPED UP POPS QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING. AS
FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT AND WARM...MOIST
PROFILE EVEN SHALLOW ECHOES WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
DOWNPOURS...BUT WE WILL PROBABLY JUST HAVE TO SEE IF ANY TRAINING OF
CELLS DEVELOPS WHICH MAY POSE A ENHANCED THREAT OF FLOODING. IF
TRAINING DOES OCCUR...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME VERY
LOCALIZED THREE+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE ACTIVITY BY LATE MORNING AS THE LLJ WEAKENS
AND THE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT.

THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPS TODAY.
WE HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE...SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 80
NORTH TO NEAR 90 SOUTH. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE
SOME CONTINUATION OR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE WE MAY SEE MORE
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND WARMER TEMPS..WHILE COOLER TEMPS FARTHER
NORTH MAY KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED TO SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT.
THE FRONTAL ZONE GRADUALLY RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH MAY ALSO
PROVIDE A FOCUS...AS MAY ANY REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S
ACTIVITY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN NM AND SRN COLO SHOULD REGENERATE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WE EXPECT THIS ROUND TO BE MAINTAINED BY A 30 KT SRLY LLJ AS IT
TRACKS EWD ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES/HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR SRN TX PANHANDLE...AND LESSER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A
WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE MOIST MONSOONAL
PLUME TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY
SITTING WELL TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
IN RESPONSE TO THIS PASSING DISTURBANCE...WITH SURFACE WINDS
VEERING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. A MCS
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
AND AHEAD OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THE TAIL END OF THIS FORCING COULD KEEP AT LEAST LOW THUNDER
CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
RESIDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES. A STRONG MID-SUMMER
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO DROP
QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO BRINGING COOLER AIR BACK INTO WEST TEXAS...THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS IT DISPLACES RATHER TOASTY AIR IN ADVANCE OF IT.
GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND DECENT T/TD SPREADS...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...THOUGH RATHER QUICK STORM
MOTIONS WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IN FACT...THE BEST
STORM CHANCES MAY JUMP MUCH OF THE CWA DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT AND WHEN IT CAN BREACH ANY REMAINING CIN. ALSO DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A LARGE GRADIENT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA...WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONLY EDGING
INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE CAA BEGINS...WHILE THE SOUTHERN ZONES MAY
MAKE IT WELL INTO THE 90S.

IT DOES APPEAR THE COOLER AND INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEHIND THE
FROPA MAY TEND TO LIMIT RAIN/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH
ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID/UPPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST
FLOW WARRANTS KEEPING SOME THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER...AS WE ADVANCE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RATHER COOL AND
STABLE SURFACE RIDGING WILL TEND TO SQUASH RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD DIRECT CONVECTION TOWARD OR INTO AT
LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES. BEYOND THAT...THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AS THE SOUTHWESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD DOWNSTREAM OF WEST COAST
TROUGHINESS. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...THIS WOULD FURTHER LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...CONFINING THE HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION OF
NEW MEXICO TO NEW MEXICO. THUS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AFTER SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON THURSDAY...WITH PLENTY OF
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES KEEPING
READINGS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND SHOULD
FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  63  82  60  78 /  70  40  30  30  20
TULIA         81  66  84  61  76 /  70  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     81  67  88  61  77 /  60  30  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     87  68  93  61  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       85  69  93  62  79 /  50  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   91  67  95  61  83 /  30  20  20  30  20
BROWNFIELD    89  69  95  62  81 /  30  20  30  30  20
CHILDRESS     85  67  87  66  81 /  50  40  30  30  20
SPUR          87  70  95  65  80 /  40  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     91  72  98  68  83 /  40  20  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/23
249
FXUS64 KLUB 290455
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. LBB WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST
TERMINAL IMPACTED BY PRECIPITATION...AS ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT. PRECIPITATION IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE EASTWARD...MOST LIKELY IMPACTING CDS DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A BREAK IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY REDEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THIS LATER
ACTIVITY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT CDS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL IMPACTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  40  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  30  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  30  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  20  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  30  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  20  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99/16
495
FXUS64 KLUB 290140
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE STUBBORN LINE OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS FINALLY DIMINISHED AS OF
00Z...LEAVING THE ENTIRE CWA DRY FOR THE TIME BEING. ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS ONGOING AND CREEPING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE STATE LINE VERY SLOWLY. IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST
HOW FAR EAST THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRAVERSE BEFORE
DIMINISHING...HOWEVER MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS THE BORDER. UPDATED POPS TO
ELIMINATE MENTION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THROUGH 06Z...AND
FAVORED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO VARY CONSIDERABLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...AS IT DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AFTER 06Z AND SLOWLY
SPREADS IT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...OPTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES THROUGH 12Z WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF POPS WITH
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  40  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  30  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  30  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  20  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  30  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  20  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  20  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

16/99
492
FXUS64 KLUB 282321
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z AS
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DIMINISH.
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS EASTERN NM MAY REACH LBB
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS
BELOW 50 PERCENT AND LIKEWISE IS TOO LOW FOR EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
AT THIS TIME. WILL MAINTAIN LOW END MENTION OF -TSRA AT CDS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AS MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN ENHANCEMENT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH LBB AND CDS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS WELL...BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM EXPLICIT TAF MENTION
UNTIL CERTAINTY INCREASES REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  50  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  30  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  50  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/16
001
FXUS64 KLUB 282035
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
335 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR AND SFC OBS SHOW THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN AND BIG COUNTRY NOW PASSING KABI AND KMAF.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN AXIS
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHER N A BAND OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLIER WAS
SHOWING SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING IN THIS AREA
WHICH LIES JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BEING
SLOWLY SQUEEZED SOUTH INTO FAR W TX.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PNHDL WITH AN UPTICK IN
STORMS ACROSS ERN NM WITHIN A PLUME OF HEALTHY DEEP MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A HINT OF CYCLONIC SPIN
WITHIN THIS MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF MORNING BLOWUP OF
CONVECTION OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. IT APPEARS THIS FEATURE IS WHAT THE
SHORT RANGE AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON WITH RESPECT TO
STORMS CROSSING THE NM BORDER INTO W TX THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALSO IS LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AND
DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. ALL OF THIS
TO SAY THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
CONFIDENCE IN POPS LESSEN QUICKLY ON TUE AS WARMFRONT BEGINS TO WORK
BACK NORTH AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWV ENERGY GETS MIXED UP IN WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PNHDL. STILL FAVORING NORTHERN AREAS FOR POPS BUT
REMNANT BOUNDARY AND ANY OVERNIGHT MCV COULD STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS
FURTHER S.

FOR TEMPS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE QUITE A BIT TOMORROW AFTN ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN HANG TOUGH. PROGRESS
OF WARM FRONT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE 90 DEGREE ISOTHERM
GETS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK ALTHOUGH MORE CERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SHORT WAVE WILL JUST BRUSH THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT AS MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.
THIS WILL BRING MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO
OKLAHOMA. A MORE COMPLICATED FORECAST EXISTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE FA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING. LIFT WILL RECEIVE A
FURTHER BOOST FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.
IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW THE FRONT WILL PLAY INTO THE
CONVECTION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL POOL BEHIND
THE FRONT RESULTING IN CONTINUING ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES. ANOTHER DRAMATIC COOL OFF WILL OCCUR AFTER THE COLD
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN JET LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT
WILL LIKELY BE TOO LATE FOR ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SEVERE
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS.

WE WILL REMAIN IN THIS UPPER PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        63  84  64  83  61 /  50  50  30  40  30
TULIA         63  83  66  84  62 /  50  50  30  40  30
PLAINVIEW     65  83  67  89  62 /  40  40  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     68  88  68  92  63 /  50  20  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       67  87  70  92  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
DENVER CITY   69  92  68  95  62 /  30  10  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    69  91  69  94  64 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     67  83  69  84  66 /  50  60  30  40  30
SPUR          69  88  69  94  65 /  30  30  20  30  30
ASPERMONT     70  92  72  97  68 /  30  30  20  30  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/01
060
FXUS64 KLUB 281734
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENSIS HAS HELPED SUSTAIN CONVECTION FROM THE
PNHDL INTO WRN OK/NW TX. HAVE THUS KEPT VCTS IN KCDS TAF INTO THE
AFTN. VERY MOIST AIRMASS HAS PUSHED IN BEHIND THE FRONT SO RENEWED
ACTIVITY WITH ONE OR MORE MCS/S DRIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED. WITH MOST SHORT TERM MODELS SHOWING SOME CONVECTION IN
06-12Z TIMEFRAME HAVE CONTINUED PROB30 FORECAST FOR BOTH TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT KLBB. STRONG EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS FCST TO PERSIST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  63  84  62 /  50  40  30  40  30
TULIA         66  85  65  86  63 /  50  40  30  30  30
PLAINVIEW     66  87  66  88  63 /  40  30  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     67  91  67  91  64 /  30  30  20  20  30
LUBBOCK       70  90  69  92  65 /  30  30  20  20  30
DENVER CITY   67  92  67  94  65 /  20  20  20  20  30
BROWNFIELD    68  92  68  94  65 /  30  20  20  20  30
CHILDRESS     70  86  68  89  66 /  50  50  30  30  30
SPUR          68  91  68  96  66 /  30  30  20  20  30
ASPERMONT     71  92  71  98  70 /  30  30  20  20  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

24/99/99
560
FXUS64 KLUB 281146
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
646 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS WILL VEER EASTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH THEY
SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
INFLUENCES. THE BIGGEST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT CONVECTION HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH RECENT DEVELOPMENT
HAS COME WITHIN 10-20 NM OF KCDS. KCDS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES OF A STORM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THOUGH CONFIDENCE
OF A DIRECT IMPACT REMAIN RATHER LOW. HENCE WE HAVE DECIDED TO
CARRY VCTS AT KCDS THROUGH 18Z...AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. KLBB
WILL HAVE THE HIGHER THUNDER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM IMPACTS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM IMPACTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  64  86  63  84 /  40  50  40  30  40
TULIA         85  66  85  65  86 /  30  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     87  66  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       89  70  90  69  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   92  67  92  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  68  92  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     89  70  86  68  89 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          92  68  91  68  96 /  30  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  71  92  71  98 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
343
FXUS64 KLUB 280905
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
405 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL KICK
OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
PROVIDED THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THE PAST WEEK IS SLOWLY
SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS AS OF 08Z. IN ADDITION...EARLY
MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ADVANCING EASTWARD
FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES...WHILE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS ALSO EDGING SOUTHWARD IN A REGION OF
ELEVATED CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LASTLY...ROBUST CONVECTION WAS NOTED DEVELOPING AND MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF FAR WEST
TEXAS...WHILE A RELATIVE DEARTH IN ACTIVITY WAS IN PLACE OVER THE
CWA. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE DETAILS TO BE SORTED OUT /AND EVOLVE/
IN THE SHORT TERM...CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY HOW STORM CHANCES PLAY OUT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THAT SAID...LIFT WITH THE
MCS PASSING BY TO THE NORTH COUPLED WITH THE ELEVATED CONVERGENCE
SAGGING SOUTHWEST THROUGH OKLAHOMA WILL LIKELY BRING THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN ZONES THIS
MORNING WHERE WE ARE CARRYING CHANCE POPS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A
MINIMAL THUNDER MENTION THIS MORNING.

IT DOES APPEAR THE BETTER STORM CHANCES MAY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CAPROCK AND ROLLING PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS PROJECT A DECENT THETA-E RIDGE TO
DEVELOP...WHILE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS IN TOWARD CHILDRESS.
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND MODEST INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IF AFTERNOON HEATING IS
SUFFICIENT TO BREAK ANY WEAK CAP. PWATS CLIMBING TO AOA 1.5 INCHES
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL BRING THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THERE ARE THEN STRONG
INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING AND EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW. THE RECENT NAM RUNS SUGGEST TONIGHT/S MCS COULD AFFECT THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...THOUGH MOST OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BRUNT OF
THE IMPACTS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE FAVORED THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER /COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS/ WILL RESULT IN COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF CONSISTENCY IN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING
THE TUES/TUES NIGHT PERIOD...AT LEAST IN THE QPF FORECASTS ACROSS
WEST TEXAS. WE DO KNOW THAT THE CWA WILL BE UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
MOIST SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN IS HOW MUCH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING...AND IF THERE
WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE ONGOING THEME...OF HIGH CHANCE POPS
NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE SREF. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE A CONCERN. WE STILL EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR STORMS TO SHIFT
NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT A LARGE
TSTM COMPLEX OR TWO WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND
MOVE SEWD INTO OKLA...CUTTING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN TX PANHANDLE.
OUR NE ZONES WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SOME ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...PUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND TSTM COLD POOLS AS
WELL. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS
FRONT...AND WHETHER OR NOT WE/LL SEE MUCH ADDITIONAL TSTM
GENERATION WITH THE FROPA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING AREA-WIDE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO INDICATE A DECENT
NORTH-SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND PERHAPS SOME 70S IN THE NORTH. SOMEWHAT CONFUSINGLY...THE
ECMWF IS GENERATING A LOT OF QPF WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
THURSDAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO THE ENERGETIC AND COOL NW FLOW
ALOFT...BUT SFC INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKE IT WOULD BE LACKING IN THE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME AND THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY. WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW DIMINISHING CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEST.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CWA COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MED-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD TSTMS ACROSS SRN COLO
AND NRN NM FRIDAY...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE INTO AT LEAST INTO
THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
MORN. THE CURRENT INDICATIONS SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO ADD SOME POPS
IN ACROSS OUR WRN ZONES FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        85  64  86  63  84 /  40  50  40  30  40
TULIA         85  66  85  65  86 /  30  50  40  30  30
PLAINVIEW     87  66  87  66  88 /  30  40  30  20  30
LEVELLAND     90  67  91  67  91 /  30  30  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       89  70  90  70  92 /  30  30  30  20  20
DENVER CITY   92  67  92  67  94 /  20  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    92  68  92  68  94 /  30  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     89  70  86  68  89 /  30  50  50  30  30
SPUR          92  68  91  68  96 /  30  30  30  20  20
ASPERMONT     95  71  92  71  98 /  30  30  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
031
FXUS64 KLUB 280455 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE KLBB
TERMINAL. FRONT MADE IT THROUGH KCDS WITH A NORTHEAST WIND 15G25KT
BUT EXPECT WIND SPEED TO BE A BIT LOWER AT KLBB. FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE START OF THE 06Z TAFS. STORMS FIRED ALONG
THE FRONT NORTHEAST OF KLBB BUT HAVE DISSIPATED...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT WE SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AT KLBB AND LEFT
POPS OUT. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES
WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO CONTINUED THE PROB30
GROUPS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
686
FXUS64 KLUB 272340 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
640 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN ONSET OF
STORMS IS TOO LOW TO PLACE A PREVAILING TSRA IN AT THIS TIME BUT
IS HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALONG THE FRONT BUT LOCATION AND ONSET TIME REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING BEFORE THEN FOR NOW. WILL
EVALUATE WHEN THE LATEST COMPUTER FORECASTS ARRIVE TONIGHT AND SEE
IF WE CANNOT NAIL DOWN BETTER TIMING FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99
030
FXUS64 KLUB 272017
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
315 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS ONE LAST DAY OF HOT
CONDITIONS TODAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN WITH CHANCES OF
RAINFALL.

THE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE THE DOMINATE SYNOPTIC FEATURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND THUS...850 MB TEMPS REMAINED
HIGH /THOUGH SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM YESTERDAY/ LEADING TO ANOTHER
WARM DAY WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 90S TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT WILL NOT ONLY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THE UA RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAS ALSO SENT ITS ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY BREEZY COLD FRONT
/10-20 MPH/ ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY PER 20Z METARS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...AND CAUSED
A WIND SHIFT TO THE N-NE. IN FACT...AN AGITATED CU-FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AREA AND SEE IF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACES...FOR IF IT DOES...IT WILL LIKELY
BE HIGH-BASED AS EXHIBITED PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF
AGITATED CU-FIELDS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
SOUTH PLAINS...NEAREST TO THE MAIN FRONT. RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWED
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THERE AND
TOWARDS THE CWA LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. IF SO...THE ACTIVITY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HIGH-BASED AND HENCE...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS /40-50
MPH/ WILL BE A PLAUSIBILITY.

AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED THUS ALLOWING
THE MONSOON MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO BEND SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION. CONCURRENTLY...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW. THE PRESENCE OF THIS
LINGERING FRONT COUPLED WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE /PWATS THEREFORE
INCREASING TO AOA 1.50 INCHES/...AND SHARPENING NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
COULD FILTER MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NRN ZONES ARE INITIALLY FAVORED AS PWATS WILL BE HIGHEST
THERE...BUT CHANCES WILL SHIFT FROM ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING...TO ACROSS THE SRN AND WRN
ZONES TOMORROW AFTN. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD PROMOTE LOCALIZED
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALTHOUGH UL SUPPORT IS LACKING...A
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL TOMORROW WILL GIVE US
A BREAK FROM THE HOT CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
LONG TERM PERIO WILL OFFER QUITE A CHANGE FROM THIS PAST WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SLOWLY WEST. THIS WILL CERTAINLY ALLOW FOR THE
COOLER REGIME WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND PROBABLY
A WETTER REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WHERE AND
WHEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR REMAIN IN
QUESTION WITH MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CONTINUING TO FAVOR
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

LARGE SCALE SOLUTIONS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEEPENING VORTEX ACROSS
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE WEST TEXAS IN NORTHWESTLY MID LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK AND ALLOW A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO IMPACT
THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC NAM/GFS/EURO CAN ALL AGREE ON EARLY
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...BUT WHATEVER
LITTLE CLARITY THERE MAY BE THEN DISAPPEARS IN SUCCESSIVELY LATER
PERIODS. GFS ADVERTISES A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX ADVECTING OUT OF NEW
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS AND WPC QPF HAS
BOUGHT INTO THIS SOLUTION WITH QPF GUIDANCE. THERE IS SOME
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION...EURO
AND TTU WRF...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER TWO ARE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH THE COMPLEX. BASED ON THIS...HIGHEST POPS FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE IN THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

SURFACE BOUNDARY THEN RETREATS NORTH ON TUESDAY MOST LIKELY TAKING
BEST RAIN CHANCES WITH IT...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION GIVEN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WTH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK ON THURSDAY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS SURFACE
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING COPIOUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEW MEXICO WITH
EVENTUAL PROPAGATION/ADVECTION INTO WEST TEXAS. THE EURO HAS SIMILAR
DEVELOPMENT BUT MAINTAINS MAJORITY OF QPF WEST OF THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER...WHICH LOOKS TO BE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN NEARLY
NORTHERLY FLOW PROGGED AT 500 MB. NONTHELESS...SOMETHING TO EVALUATE
FURTHER AS THE UPCOMING WEEK PROGRESSES. JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  86  64  83  64 /  30  40  50  40  30
TULIA         64  85  66  82  66 /  30  30  50  40  30
PLAINVIEW     64  87  65  83  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
LEVELLAND     66  89  66  88  67 /  10  30  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       69  89  69  87  70 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  92  66  90  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    65  92  67  89  68 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     70  88  70  86  70 /  30  30  50  50  30
SPUR          67  90  68  88  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  94  71  91  71 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/13
184
FXUS64 KLUB 271720
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1220 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED JUST NORTH OF KCDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COMPUTER MODELS HINTING AT IT SAGGING SOUTH AND
AFFECTING KCDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...LEADING TO A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. AT KLBB...S-SW WINDS WILL ENSUE. HOWEVER...A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PUSH IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND
AFFECT KCDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND IMPINGE ON KLBB BY THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...AND HAVE THEREFORE INSERTED A PROB30 AT KCDS TO SHOW THE
BEST TIME OF THIS OCCURRENCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE A PRECIP
MENTION AT KLBB ATTM...GIVEN COMPUTER MODELS SHOW BETTER CHANCES
AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH
NORTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

LONG TERM...
.A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  85  64  85  63 /  30  40  40  40  30
TULIA         67  84  65  84  65 /  30  30  40  40  30
PLAINVIEW     67  86  65  85  66 /  20  30  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     68  89  64  90  66 /  10  30  20  30  20
LUBBOCK       71  89  69  89  69 /  10  30  30  30  20
DENVER CITY   69  91  66  91  66 /  10  20  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  91  66  91  67 /  10  30  20  20  20
CHILDRESS     71  88  69  86  69 /  30  30  40  40  30
SPUR          72  92  68  89  68 /  10  30  30  30  20
ASPERMONT     74  95  70  90  71 /  10  30  20  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
793
FXUS64 KLUB 271143
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
643 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD THROUGH KCDS BRINGING A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT THIS MORNING...AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
ALSO AFFECT KLBB. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION AT THE TERMINALS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE...SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES RESIDING AT
KCDS. EVEN SO...CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACT REMAINS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

LONG TERM...
..A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  85  64  85 /  20  30  40  40  40
TULIA         92  67  84  65  84 /  20  30  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     93  67  86  65  85 /  10  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     97  68  89  64  90 /  10  10  30  20  30
LUBBOCK       99  70  89  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   97  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  30  20  20
CHILDRESS    102  71  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40  40
SPUR         102  72  92  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
ASPERMONT    103  74  95  70  90 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
075
FXUS64 KLUB 270903
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE WELL ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE TODAY/TONIGHT AS A POTENT MID-SUMMER UPPER LOW SPINNING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING DIGS PROGRESSIVELY
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEEPEN THE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO SHIFT
WESTWARD EVER SO SLOWLY. EVEN SO...THE UPPER RIDGING THAT HAS
DICTATED THE WEATHER AND BROUGHT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION RECENTLY WILL NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN JUST YET. STILL...DEEP LAYER THICKNESSES AND
PROGGED LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO COOL SLIGHTLY...SO HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL PEAK
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE THE
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY EDGE IN
THIS MORNING AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER.
THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LOOSE DEFINITION THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REINFORCED BY A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT.

THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP INDICATES THAT THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
/SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES/ LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE IT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...OR ANY OUTFLOW
PUSHES ALONG IT...CAN MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES...A FEW
HIGH-BASED SLOW-MOVING STORMS COULD GRACE THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE CONVECTION IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO... WHERE A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW. THE
NM/CO CONVECTION MAY LAST LATE INTO TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES
EASTWARD...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE BEST THUNDER/RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHILE ALOFT THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOO. GIVEN THIS...AT
LEAST LOW THUNDER CHANCES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE
MILD...RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR FRIONA TO MID-70S AROUND
ASPERMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
...A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...

THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD BE MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME ONGOING ISOLD TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
SET UP A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON RUNNING ALONG AN ARC FROM NE NM TO THE SRN ROLLING
PLAINS PER THE 00 UTC RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...OR THE BOUNDARY
MAY SURGE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND TAKING THE FOCUS FOR
CI WITH IT PER MUCH OF THE HIGHER-RES GUIDANCE. NO CLEAR ANSWER
AT THIS POINT BUT WE HAVE RECONFIGURED POPS FROM FAVORING THE NORTH
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES. MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
TAKE THE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES BACK TO THE NORTH. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW TUE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM PERSISTENT
AND/OR TRAINING CELLS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS...BUT NO FIRM INDICATION AT THIS POINT. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BACK TO OUR
NW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE SRN
ROCKIES INDUCING WIDESPREAD STORMS FROM NRN NM ON NORTH...ALTHOUGH
WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE OUT SOME STORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IN THE CWA.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH WILL PROGRESS SWED INTO
WESTERN OKLA WED...WITH LESSER COVERAGE/CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER COOL SURGE...LIKELY OUTFLOW-AIDED...WILL PASS
THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TSTM CHANCES GOING
AND MAY ALSO PRODUCE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. IT WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER AREA-WIDE THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING AS A SHORTWAVE BRUSHES THE
AREA. HIGH TEMPS THURS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH...DEPENDING ON THE CLOUD COVER.

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
WITH THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST AND THE RIDGE IN THE WEST. A GRADUAL
EWD DRIFT MAY EDGE THE UPPER RIDGING CLOSER TO THE CWA WHILE A
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS KEEPS THE SUPPLY OF
COOLER AIR FLOWING IN. IN THIS PATTERN...THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DESERT SW INTO THE 4-CORNERS
REGION AND CENTRAL NM WHERE AMPLE MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRPAHIC LIFT WILL BE FOUND. IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY COULD CREEP TOWARD THE STATE LINE EACH EVENING...BUT
WE/LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. ONLY A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED FRI-SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  65  85  64  85 /  20  30  40  40  40
TULIA         92  67  84  65  84 /  20  30  30  40  40
PLAINVIEW     93  67  86  65  85 /  10  20  30  30  30
LEVELLAND     97  68  89  64  90 /  10  10  30  20  30
LUBBOCK       98  71  89  69  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
DENVER CITY   97  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  20  20  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  91  66  91 /  10  10  30  20  20
CHILDRESS    102  71  88  69  86 /  10  30  30  40  40
SPUR         102  72  92  68  89 /  10  10  30  30  30
ASPERMONT    103  74  95  70  90 /   0  10  30  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
739
FXUS64 KLUB 262319 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE SAID RIDGE HAS FLATTENED A BIT COURTESY
OF AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 24-31 DEGREES C HAS PROVIDED
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY...AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION
AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO. RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE ACTIVITY FROM IMPINGING ON THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE /UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/ WITH LOW
CONCERNS OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING MET...GIVEN ANTICIPATED
HEAT INDICES AOA 100 DEGREES F ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS /WHICH IS BELOW THE 105 DEGREE F CRITERIA/. CONCURRENTLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE DIVING SE TOWARDS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILST ITS ASSOCIATED SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITED NORTH OF THE
FA...THOUGH A SWRD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO OUR NRN
ZONES AND PERHAPS PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SAID LOCALES
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH POPS INCREASING MORE SO AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /TOMORROW EVENING-TOMORROW NIGHT/ AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...DUE TO S-SE SFC WINDS...TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LATE THIS
PAST WEEK. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXTENT AND DURATION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LONG-LIVED UPPER RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW STATIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
MORE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO BRING STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO INTO THE LONE STAR STATE.

WHILE ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT MAY BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
PROVIDES INFLOW INTO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE SAME STORY HOLDS
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MAY BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WARRANTED. FLOW THEN APPEARS AS
IT WILL VEER TO SOME DEGREE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS PUSHING THE RIDGE BACK EAST COME LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE PRESENT BEGINNING FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  66  86  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
TULIA         66  95  67  85  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  95  67  86  66 /   0  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     69  96  69  89  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  71  88  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  96  70  92  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  97  70  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     70 101  72  88  70 /  10  20  20  30  30
SPUR          69  99  73  91  70 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     74 100  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/93/14
337
FXUS64 KLUB 262045
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE OPPRESSIVE UA RIDGE CONTINUED TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE SAID RIDGE HAS FLATTENED A BIT COURTESY
OF AN UA LOW TRANSLATING ESE ACROSS SRN MANITOBA. DESPITE THE
DE-AMPLIFICATION...A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 24-31 DEGREES C HAS PROVIDED
THE REGION WITH ANOTHER HOT DAY...AS TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS OFF THE CAPROCK. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION
AND A NEARBY SFC TROUGH HAVE LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO. RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT THE ACTIVITY FROM IMPINGING ON THE CWA LATER THIS
EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE /UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
SW TX PANHANDLE TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS/ WITH LOW
CONCERNS OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEING MET...GIVEN ANTICIPATED
HEAT INDICES AOA 100 DEGREES F ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS /WHICH IS BELOW THE 105 DEGREE F CRITERIA/. CONCURRENTLY THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL BE DIVING SE TOWARDS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILST ITS ASSOCIATED SWRD MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/NRN TX PANHANDLE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITED NORTH OF THE
FA...THOUGH A SWRD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD PUSH INTO OUR NRN
ZONES AND PERHAPS PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SAID LOCALES
TOMORROW AFTN...WITH POPS INCREASING MORE SO AFTER THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD /TOMORROW EVENING-TOMORROW NIGHT/ AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. FURTHERMORE...DUE TO S-SE SFC WINDS...TEMPS TOMORROW
WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER 90S TO
LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY...BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THOSE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LATE THIS
PAST WEEK. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE
MONDAY ALONG THE FRONT...BUT EXTENT AND DURATION WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED BY CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LONG-LIVED UPPER RIDGING AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTH AS HEIGHTS FALL WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW STATIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
TUESDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
MORE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO BRING STORMS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO INTO THE LONE STAR STATE.

WHILE ANY UPPER DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT MAY BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS AN APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
PROVIDES INFLOW INTO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. THE SAME STORY HOLDS
FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AS PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER DISTURBANCE ALOFT
MAY BE PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO APPROACH BY THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WARRANTED. FLOW THEN APPEARS AS
IT WILL VEER TO SOME DEGREE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS PUSHING THE RIDGE BACK EAST COME LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE PRESENT BEGINNING FRIDAY...SO WILL KEEP INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        69  94  66  86  65 /  10  20  20  30  30
TULIA         66  95  67  85  66 /  10  20  20  30  30
PLAINVIEW     65  95  67  86  66 /   0  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     69  96  69  89  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  71  88  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   67  96  70  92  67 /   0  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    66  97  70  91  68 /   0  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     70 101  72  88  70 /  10  20  20  30  30
SPUR          69  99  73  91  70 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     74 100  74  94  72 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/31
603
FXUS64 KLUB 261717
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1217 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BREEZY
SRLY WINDS THIS AFTN WILL DECLINE A BIT OVERNIGHT /10-12 KTS/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AND WARM EVENING/NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND PROGGED 700/850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COMPARABLE HIGHS TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LUBBOCK WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW AND 7TH IN 2014. ANY APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW AIDED FRONT AND SLIM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NE NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CWA WHILE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO NW AND BRINGS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE IN THIS REGIME BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHS OVER THE
STALLING BOUNDARY...AND WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT THOUGH AND OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY QPF SIGNAL IN THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND NW FLOW /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALOFT...IT WOULD BE
SURPRISING IF WE DID NOT SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY FOUND ACROSS OUR NRN AND NE ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /FROM SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLA/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE AND
BRINGS ANOTHER COOL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
WORKS IN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AND THUS GENERATES QPF OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADLY PAINT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURS AND
EXTEND THEM INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        65  94  67  88  66 /  10  20  20  30  40
TULIA         67  95  68  87  67 /  10  20  20  30  40
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  30  30
LEVELLAND     69  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
LUBBOCK       71  97  73  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
DENVER CITY   69  97  71  94  68 /  10  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    69  98  71  94  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
CHILDRESS     74 101  73  91  71 /  10  10  20  30  40
SPUR          71  98  74  93  71 /   0  10  10  20  20
ASPERMONT     74 100  75  96  73 /   0   0  10  20  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
689
FXUS64 KLUB 261137
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY/TONIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS AND MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AND WARM EVENING/NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND PROGGED 700/850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COMPARABLE HIGHS TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LUBBOCK WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW AND 7TH IN 2014. ANY APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW AIDED FRONT AND SLIM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NE NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CWA WHILE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO NW AND BRINGS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE IN THIS REGIME BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHS OVER THE
STALLING BOUNDARY...AND WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT THOUGH AND OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY QPF SIGNAL IN THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND NW FLOW /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALOFT...IT WOULD BE
SURPRISING IF WE DID NOT SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY FOUND ACROSS OUR NRN AND NE ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /FROM SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLA/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE AND
BRINGS ANOTHER COOL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
WORKS IN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AND THUS GENERATES QPF OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADLY PAINT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURS AND
EXTEND THEM INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       100  65  94  67  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
TULIA         96  67  95  68  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     95  67  95  68  88 /   0  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     98  69  96  70  92 /   0  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK      100  71  97  72  91 /   0  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   99  69  97  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  98  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS    103  74 101  73  91 /   0  10  10  20  30
SPUR         101  71  98  74  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    103  74 100  75  96 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
064
FXUS64 KLUB 260859
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
359 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY AND WARM EVENING/NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND PROGGED 700/850 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST COMPARABLE HIGHS TO YESTERDAY...ABOUT 5-7
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. LUBBOCK WILL TOP OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK...PERHAPS HITTING 100 DEGREES FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A
ROW AND 7TH IN 2014. ANY APPRECIABLE STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS...FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS...WHERE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW AIDED FRONT AND SLIM
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TONIGHT...THOUGH IT WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA THROUGH
12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A FRONT MOVING THROUGH NE NM AND THE
TX PANHANDLE. UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIKELY BE LACKING AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY...SO IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THE ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE AFTER THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY.
WE/LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS OUR NRN ZONES THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT
FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE CWA WHILE
UPPER FLOW SHIFTS TO NW AND BRINGS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD IMPROVE IN THIS REGIME BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL-DEFINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT SHOWER COVERAGE
MAY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LVL JET STRENGTHS OVER THE
STALLING BOUNDARY...AND WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY FALL AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT THOUGH AND OUR CWA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE
PRIMARY QPF SIGNAL IN THE MED-RANGE GUIDANCE. STILL...WITH HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS AND NW FLOW /ALBEIT WEAK/ ALOFT...IT WOULD BE
SURPRISING IF WE DID NOT SEE SOME ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
LIKELY FOUND ACROSS OUR NRN AND NE ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TSTM
COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS /FROM SW KS THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL OKLA/...WHICH APPEARS TO BE FORCED BY A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE IN THE NW FLOW. THE ECMWF IS SHARPER WITH THIS WAVE AND
BRINGS ANOTHER COOL SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD SPARK A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN PRECIP
CHANCES BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AS DRIER LOW-LVL AIR
WORKS IN. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
INTO FRIDAY AND THUS GENERATES QPF OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WE WILL
CONTINUE TO BROADLY PAINT SLGT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THURS AND
EXTEND THEM INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.

THE UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA       100  65  94  67  88 /   0  10  20  20  30
TULIA         96  67  95  68  87 /   0  10  20  20  30
PLAINVIEW     95  67  95  68  88 /   0  10  10  20  30
LEVELLAND     98  69  96  70  92 /   0  10  10  10  20
LUBBOCK       99  71  97  73  91 /   0  10  10  10  20
DENVER CITY   99  69  97  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
BROWNFIELD    99  69  98  71  94 /   0  10  10  10  20
CHILDRESS    103  74 101  73  91 /   0  10  10  20  30
SPUR         101  71  98  74  93 /   0   0  10  10  20
ASPERMONT    103  74 100  75  96 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
895
FXUS64 KLUB 260445
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUN UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS BY LATE MORNING TO AROUND 20 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  96  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  70  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 102  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          70  99  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
399
FXUS64 KLUB 252330
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH SAT TO KEEP VFR CONDS INTACT.
MODEST SLY GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE ALREADY TAPERING OFF...BUT
THESE WILL RESUME BY LATE SAT MRNG MAINLY AT CDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
HOT/ABOVE NORMAL HEAT...AS 20Z METARS NOTED TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK...TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS OFF THE CAPROCK. COULD SEE TEMPS WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS PEAK HEATING SETTLES IN. GENERALLY LIGHT
S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WERE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH WERE OCCURRING...COURTESY OF A NEARBY SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS DEEPENED EVER-SO SLIGHTLY. AGITATED CU- FIELDS/SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO...WHICH WERE PROMPTED BY OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. RATHER WEAK SWRLY FLOW MAY
FILTER SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BUT LIKELY
NOT ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDURES /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS/.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL ENSUE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS EXPECTED. THESE WARM NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS COULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO AOA 100 DEGREES MORE SO ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
/105 DEGREES/. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY: THE UA RIDGE
WILL PERSIST...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS...STORMS IGNITING ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO MAY TRANSLATE TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIM CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS THE CWA WILL EXIST. FOCUS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA LOW
TRAVERSING SRN CANADA THAT WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE RETROGRADES WEST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN...CARVING OUT A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS IT CROSSES THE
BORDER INTO THE LAND OF 10000 LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. BEFORE THE
WELCOME SUMMER RELIEF...SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE AND LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS LIKELY EXPERIENCING TRIPLE DIGITS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FURTHER AIDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF COVERAGE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGING.

UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND BACK THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES. WHILE THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO LATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH HINTS OF ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WITH THE CEMENTED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SET OFF A MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF
AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX. WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD THEN PRESENT ANOTHER
APPRECIABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AHEAD OF A DOSE OF UPPER SUPPORT.
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN DICTATE
CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK...BUT WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK LOOKING TO OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY PROGGED
VEERING FLOW ALOFT...WOULD THINK PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE ON THE
DECLINE AND BEGIN FOCUSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  96  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  70  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 102  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          70  99  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
590
FXUS64 KLUB 252036
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
336 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE UA RIDGE OVERHEAD CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
HOT/ABOVE NORMAL HEAT...AS 20Z METARS NOTED TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK...TO UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS OFF THE CAPROCK. COULD SEE TEMPS WARM ANOTHER FEW DEGREES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS PEAK HEATING SETTLES IN. GENERALLY LIGHT
S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WERE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL BUT PERHAPS THE
FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE SPEEDS
OF 15-20 MPH WERE OCCURRING...COURTESY OF A NEARBY SFC TROUGH THAT
HAS DEEPENED EVER-SO SLIGHTLY. AGITATED CU- FIELDS/SHOWERS WERE
NOTED ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO...WHICH WERE PROMPTED BY OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS AND DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION. RATHER WEAK SWRLY FLOW MAY
FILTER SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...BUT LIKELY
NOT ACROSS THE CWA. FURTHERMORE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENDURES /SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT
DAYS/.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL ENSUE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS EXPECTED. THESE WARM NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS COULD PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO AOA 100 DEGREES MORE SO ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING
PLAINS...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
/105 DEGREES/. THUS...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED
HIGHLIGHTS ATTM. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY: THE UA RIDGE
WILL PERSIST...TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE
DIGITS...STORMS IGNITING ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO MAY TRANSLATE TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN...AND SLIM CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER
ACROSS THE CWA WILL EXIST. FOCUS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA LOW
TRAVERSING SRN CANADA THAT WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE RETROGRADES WEST WITH THE UPPER
LOW...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SASKATCHEWAN...CARVING OUT A CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AS IT CROSSES THE
BORDER INTO THE LAND OF 10000 LAKES SATURDAY EVENING. BEFORE THE
WELCOME SUMMER RELIEF...SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE AND LOCATIONS IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS LIKELY EXPERIENCING TRIPLE DIGITS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY WITH DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM
SECTOR AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING FURTHER AIDS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS A SURGE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. NOT
EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF COVERAGE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CONTINUED
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGING.

UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BY MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AND BACK THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT. PWATS WILL
INCREASE TO 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...LEADING TO HIGHER
RAINFALL CHANCES. WHILE THE TIMING OF ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE...INCREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO LATE TUESDAY ALONG WITH HINTS OF ENERGY ALOFT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WITH THE CEMENTED MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SET OFF A MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...POTENTIALLY IN THE FORM OF
AN ORGANIZED COMPLEX. WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD THEN PRESENT ANOTHER
APPRECIABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS AHEAD OF A DOSE OF UPPER SUPPORT.
THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL THEN DICTATE
CHANCES INTO LATE WEEK...BUT WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
WEEK LOOKING TO OCCUR THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY PROGGED
VEERING FLOW ALOFT...WOULD THINK PROBABILITIES SHOULD BE ON THE
DECLINE AND BEGIN FOCUSING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AS MONSOONAL FLOW
RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  66 /   0   0  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
PLAINVIEW     66  96  68  96  68 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  70  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  71  97  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  71  98  69 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     72 102  74 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          70  99  72 100  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     73 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29/31
820
FXUS64 KLUB 251722
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY S-SW SURFACE WINDS /10-12
KTS/.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  98  66  95  65 /   0  10  10  20  20
TULIA         68  98  68  96  67 /   0  10  10  10  20
PLAINVIEW     68  97  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20
LEVELLAND     68  99  67  97  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       72  99  71  98  71 /   0   0  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   68  98  68  97  67 /   0   0  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    69  99  69  98  68 /   0   0  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     73 102  73 102  72 /   0   0  10  10  20
SPUR          71  99  71 100  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
ASPERMONT     74 102  75 102  75 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29
571
FXUS64 KLUB 251125
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
625 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 105 DEGREES.

LONG TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        98  67  98  66  95 /   0   0  10  10  20
TULIA         96  68  98  68  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  97  68  96 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     98  68  99  67  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK      100  71  99  71  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   99  68  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    99  69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          98  71  99  71 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    100  74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33/23
262
FXUS64 KLUB 250904
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEST TEXAS WEATHER
TODAY RESULTING IN THE CONTINUATION OF THE MID-SUMMER HEAT. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN PROGGED 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND 850/700 MB
TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THAT HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER THAN
ON THURSDAY FOR MOST SPOTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES ON THE CAPROCK...WITH 100 TO 104
DEGREES COMMON IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS HEAT AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE
ENOUGH TO FORCE AN EXTREMELY ISOLATED AND BRIEF LATE DAY
SHOWER...THOUGH COVERAGE AND DURATION WOULD BE VERY LOW...WITH POPS
UNDER 5 PERCENT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO
MIDDLE 70S EAST. THIS TOASTY PATTERN DOES RAISE CONCERN FOR HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES...THOUGH IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES SHY OF THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD
OF 105 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUIDANCE
PROGGING THE WARMEST MID-LEVEL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS...WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND...HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AIR TEMP AND WE
DON/T EXPECT ANY EXCESSIVE HEAT HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. ON
SUNDAY...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE MIDWEST...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SPARK
SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
SRN COLO AND NRN NM. INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT MAY DIRECT SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY SEWD INTO OUR NW COUNTIES SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY SLIP INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT PROGRESSION IS UNCERTAIN. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A
MODEST DROP IN TEMPS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE FRONT /HOPEFULLY/ IN THE
AREA AND BETTER MID-LVL INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO
THE WEST. IN GENERAL...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF NW FLOW
ALOFT...AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE TUES THROUGH
THURS...WHICH WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR HOWEVER. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG PREFERENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM SRN COLO...SEWD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...INTO WRN OKLA AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUTS OUR NE ZONES IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR
RAIN...WITH CHANCES TAPERING DOWN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS A WELL-DEVELOPED MCS WED NIGHT...TIED TO A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE PLAINS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT MAY DRIVE
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. BY LATE
WEEK...GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BACK ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND GREAT BASIN. THE BEST
FOCUS FOR RAIN IN THIS PATTEN MAY BE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT
UPPER-FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING SOME ACTIVITY EASTWARD
INTO OUR WRN COUNTIES. AS FOR TEMPS...AFTER MAXING OUT OVER THE
WEEKEND...WE SHOULD SEE THEM GRADUALLY FALLING BACK THROUGH MID-
WEEK. THU MAY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 80S. IN THE FORECAST PATTERN WE WOULD USUALLY EXPECT ONLY A
GRADUAL...MODEST WARMING TREND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        98  67  98  66  95 /   0   0  10  10  20
TULIA         96  68  98  68  96 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     96  68  97  68  96 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     98  68  99  67  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK      100  72  99  71  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   99  68  98  68  97 /   0   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    99  69  99  69  98 /   0   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS    101  73 102  73 102 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          98  71  99  71 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    100  74 102  75 102 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

23/33
783
FXUS64 KLUB 250430
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BROAD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP VFR AND SKC CONDS
INTACT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AOB 11 KNOTS WILL VEER
FROM SE TO SW BY DAYBREAK BEFORE BACKING SELY AROUND 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
607
FXUS64 KLUB 242333
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
633 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR WITH LIGHT SELY WINDS VEERING S-SW AFTER 06Z. PRESENTLY
JUST A FEW SMALL SHRA/TSRA ARE FOUND ABOUT 40S LBB MOVG W...BUT
THESE WILL DECAY BY SUNSET AND NOT AFFECT THE TERMINAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPA DATA SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL
JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.  DECENT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE ON TOP OF US RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST AND EAST OF US...IT
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE SLIM TO NONE.
RUC/HRRR/AND ARW-WEST ARE ALL STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/GFS/TTU WRF KEEP THINGS DRY.
WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  HIGHS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
OVERDOING TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  VERIFICATION
NUMBERS SHOW THAT BY FAR THE BEST PERFORMING FIELDS FOR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN EITHER THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW OR WEIGHTED MODEL
FIELDS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WEIGHTED MODELS FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.  THIS KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CAPROCK
WITH 99 TO 102 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY START OFF HOT AND DRY...BUT WILL END
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED COURTESY OF AN UA LOW
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. DESPITE A
FLATTER UA RIDGE...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 27-32 DEGREES C SUGGEST HOT
TEMPS WILL ENDURE /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS/.
RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE UA RIDGE AND AID TO
IGNITE STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE PRECIP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING...THOUGH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NEW
MEXICO.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUS CAUSING THE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHARPEN. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AND AS A
RESULT...IS QUICKER IN DEPICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND ARE A TAD SLOWER ON ALL COUNTS...THEREBY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIP IMPINGING ON THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HENCE...A FEW DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE HASHED OUT.
NONETHELESS...A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS STILL BEING EXHIBITED
NEXT WEEK...AS MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO COULD
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS BEING
DEPICTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS ENDURING ABOVE 1.00
INCH...ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COMMENCING SUNDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
939
FXUS64 KLUB 242014
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
314 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
ANALYSIS OF THE 12Z UPA DATA SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE STARTING TO FALL
JUST A BIT COMPARED TO THE SAME TIME YESTERDAY.  DECENT CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS A BIT MORE EXPANSIVE
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  WITH THE RIDGE ON TOP OF US RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE TOO FAR WEST AND EAST OF US...IT
APPEARS THAT CHANCES FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE SLIM TO NONE.
RUC/HRRR/AND ARW-WEST ARE ALL STILL TRYING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE NAM/GFS/TTU WRF KEEP THINGS DRY.
WILL GO WITH NO POPS FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES FOR MORNING LOWS FRIDAY.  HIGHS HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
OVERDOING TEMPS BY 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  VERIFICATION
NUMBERS SHOW THAT BY FAR THE BEST PERFORMING FIELDS FOR TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN EITHER THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW OR WEIGHTED MODEL
FIELDS AND HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH THE WEIGHTED MODELS FOR HIGHS
TOMORROW.  THIS KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE CAPROCK
WITH 99 TO 102 FOR THE ROLLING PLAINS.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST MAY START OFF HOT AND DRY...BUT WILL END
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT AS COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THE UA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DOMINATING SYNOPTIC FEATURE ON
SATURDAY...THOUGH IT WILL BE LESS AMPLIFIED COURTESY OF AN UA LOW
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. DESPITE A
FLATTER UA RIDGE...THE SLIGHT UPTICK IN MID-UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES AND 850 MB TEMPS RANGING BETWEEN 27-32 DEGREES C SUGGEST HOT
TEMPS WILL ENDURE /UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS/.
RELATIVELY WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL ROUND THE UA RIDGE AND AID TO
IGNITE STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW THE PRECIP ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEARING THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EVENING...THOUGH VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND ERN NEW
MEXICO.

LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW WILL
DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THUS CAUSING THE UA RIDGE TO
RETROGRADE TOWARDS THE DESERT SW. AS SUCH...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHARPEN. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER IN SHOWING THIS EVOLUTION AND AS A
RESULT...IS QUICKER IN DEPICTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE OTHER
HAND ARE A TAD SLOWER ON ALL COUNTS...THEREBY SHOWING THE COLD FRONT
AND PRECIP IMPINGING ON THE FA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HENCE...A FEW DETAILS STILL NEEDS TO BE HASHED OUT.
NONETHELESS...A COOLER AND WETTER TREND IS STILL BEING EXHIBITED
NEXT WEEK...AS MOUNTAINOUS CONVECTION ACROSS NEW MEXICO COULD
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE
OF A COLD PASSAGE. FURTHERMORE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS BEING
DEPICTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH PWATS ENDURING ABOVE 1.00
INCH...ADDITIONAL RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN
THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS COMMENCING SUNDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S
EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  98  66  98  66 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         68  96  68  98  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     68  97  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       70  99  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   67  96  66  98  68 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    68  98  68  99  69 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72 100  72 102  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          70  99  69  99  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72 102  73 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
173
FXUS64 KLUB 241738 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1238 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
SLIM CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE KLBB TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND AMEND IF NECESSARY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
089
FXUS64 KLUB 241220
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
720 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

01
064
FXUS64 KLUB 240856
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
356 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN NM AND SRN COLO WILL
TEND TO ELONGATE E-W TODAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS ACROSS OUR CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE FIELD STRETCHING FROM SRN OKLA INTO
WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH TODAY...SKIRTING OUR SRN ZONES. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST BUT
PERHAPS NOT ALL CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE
SEEMS TOO LOW TO ADD TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES MAY
BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY GIVEN THE SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT...HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND UPPER 90S TO
ABOUT 102 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIE
OFF QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD NIGHT
EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK...PRECIPITATION LOOKS MORE
UNLIKELY...SPECIFICALLY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVENINGS. A FEW
SHORT WAVES ARE STILL PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD AROUND THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BUT LOOK TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT THE REGION. THE
PANHANDLES MAY SEE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THESE SHORT WAVES.
FURTHERMORE...WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION
TO MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES WEST AND AMPLIFIES.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. A DRYING TREND DURING THE REST OF THE
WEEK MAY BE ERASED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR NEXT WEEK. EXACT DETAILS
REMAIN UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST BUT THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STILL DOES LOOK WETTER AND COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  66  97  66  98 /   0   0  10  10  10
TULIA         94  68  98  69  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     94  68  98  68  99 /   0   0  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     95  68 101  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       97  70 101  70 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   96  68 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  69 100  68 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     99  73 104  73 103 /   0   0  10  10   0
SPUR          97  71 101  71 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     99  73 104  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01
829
FXUS64 KLUB 240449
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1149 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTD VFR AND MOSTLY SKC AS A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /  10   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
918
FXUS64 KLUB 232341
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
641 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR AND MOSTLY SKC THRU THU EVNG AS A DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 10K FEET AGL SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ELY WINDS
THIS EVNG WILL VEER SLY BY DAYBREAK AND REMAIN AOB 11 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93
843
FXUS64 KLUB 232038
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
338 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS ARE QUITE A BIT QUIETER TODAY COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  12Z UPA ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHICH HAS PUT THE KIBOSH ON ANY CONVECTION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  CU FIELD IS MUCH LESS ROBUST COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY AS WELL...ALSO INDICATING SUBSIDENCE IS TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE REGION.  EVEN WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE
NOT CLIMBED AS MUCH AS COULD HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE AS WEAK EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT TOO MUCH.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT AS WELL RESULTING IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

JORDAN

&&

.LONG TERM...
HOT CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THANKS TO AN
OPPRESSIVE /ALBEIT FLATTENED/ UA RIDGE...WITH TEMPS SOARING INTO THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH
IS SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. THESE SCORCHING DAYTIME TEMPS
FOLLOWED BY RATHER WARM NIGHTS /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ COULD NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS...THOUGH
HEAT INDICES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM. A FEW
EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROUNDING THE UA RIDGE MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS ACROSS NE NEW MEXICO DURING THE SAID PERIOD. STORMS WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FA DUE TO RATHER WEAK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SHOW THE UA RIDGE COMMENCING TO RETROGRADE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THUS PROMOTING WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE
PLAUSIBILITY OF STORMS TO TRANSLATE FROM NE NEW MEXICO TO
NEAR/ACROSS THE NW SOUTH PLAINS.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO AN UA LOW SYSTEM THAT WILL PROPAGATE EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA LATE THIS WEEK...THEN SE TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION EARLY NEXT...HENCE SHOVING THE UA RIDGE FARTHER TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE NW FLOW ALOFT TO SHARPEN. THE UA LOW/S ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
AS SUCH COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S BY MONDAY/.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY WHILST SFC
WINDS VEER TO AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT LONG
TERM SOLUTIONS EXHIBIT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. THIS COULD FURTHER
AID IN ENDURING STORM CHANCES AND COOLER CONDITIONS /HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY/. MEX GUIDANCE POPS
HAVE BEEN CREEPING UP DURING THE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH
INCREASES CONFIDENCE FOR A COOLER AND WETTER PERIOD. THUS...THE
INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEK APPEARS APPROPRIATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        66  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   0  10  10
TULIA         68  96  69  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     67  95  68  99  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     69  97  69 102  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       70  99  71 102  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   69  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    70  97  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     74 100  74 105  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
SPUR          71  98  71 102  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     73 103  74 105  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/29
339
FXUS64 KLUB 231740 AAB
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1240 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EASTERLY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...
600DM UPPER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER SRN COLO
TODAY...KEEPING OUR CWA IN MODEST NE FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL E-SE
FLOW. 3 AM SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THINNING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER OVER WTX...AND PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TODAY AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE MIGRATES TO THE SW AROUND THE HIGH. THUS THE
ATMOSPHERE IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY
AS YESTERDAY. WE WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WE CAN/T RULE
OUT AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO FROM THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SWWD INTO
SOUTHERN NM...CUTTING ACROSS OUR NW ZONES. ALSO OF SOME INTEREST IS
MODEL PROJECTIONS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING WEST OR SW
ACROSS OKLA AND POSSIBLY NEARING THE ERN TX PANHANDLE OR RED RIVER VLY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS UNFAVORABLY TIMED TO REACH
OUR CWA HOWEVER AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BE
COOLING/STABILIZING BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH. TEMP-WISE...WE STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THINKING CLOUD COVER
WILL NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH. TEMPS MAY EDGE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YSTDY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON THE CAPROCK AND
NEAR 100 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS. HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALIGN FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE AMBIENT TEMPS AS SFC DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN A LITTLE BIT
MORE. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...
SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE LONG TERM NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN. IN THE
MEANTIME...HEIGHTS THIS WEEK WILL DECREASE WITH A FLATTENING
RIDGE. THIS RIDGE WILL FLATTEN FROM A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...THICKNESS VALUES WILL RISE
WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE LOOK TO BREAK 100 DEGREES. AT THE
MOMENT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET
ALTHOUGH WILL COME CLOSE BOTH OF THESE AFTERNOONS.

WE STILL START TO SEE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AS
THE FLATTENED RIDGE MOVES BACK WEST. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE
OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GENERATING CONVECTION
OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BUT
ATMOSPHERIC FLOW WILL STILL BE WEAK WHICH WILL LIMIT THE ABILITY
OF CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL TAKE SHAPE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE MAKE A PATTERN CHANGE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL
DIP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TO THE AREA EITHER ON SUNDAY OR MONDAY AND STALL OUT FOR A
FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS NEXT WEEK FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN ANY SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR
TIMING ON ANY SHORT WAVES BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE ON TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        94  65  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         94  69  97  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     95  68  96  68 100 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     96  68  98  69 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       98  71  98  70 102 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   96  69  97  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    97  71  98  69 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS    100  74 103  73 106 /   0  10   0   0  10
SPUR          97  73 100  72 103 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT    101  75 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99

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