Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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145
FXUS64 KLUB 191716
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1116 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR DOMINATED. VERY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT UNTIL A WEAK
COLD FRONT SEEPS SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST MON JAN 19 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER MILD WINTER DAY WILL VISIT NORTHWEST TEXAS TODAY THOUGH IT
WILL COME WITHOUT THE GUSTY WINDS OF THE WEEKEND. THE PLEASANT
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BENEATH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A COUPLE MINOR
RIPPLES IN THE FLOW WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION BUT THEY WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT OTHER THAN TO BRING A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. AT
THE SURFACE...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY
BEHIND AN EARLY TROUGH PASSAGE. THE LIGHT BREEZES WILL HAVE NO
COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...THOUGH THE LACK OF DOWNSLOPE SHOULD
TEMPER WARMING A BIT OFF THE CAPROCK IN COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY
/PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE/. REGARDLESS...IT
WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP EFFICIENTLY AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS BY
TUESDAY MORNING MOSTLY IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT WILL EASE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS INDICATIONS SUCH THAT GUSTY WINDS AREN/T
EXPECTED. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE INITIAL COOL-DOWN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM LOW 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S
SOUTH. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...THE VANGUARDS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
4-CORNERS REGION.

THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE CWA/S TEMPS
FROM RISING OUT OF THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW 50S IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST TO EAST BAND OF PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE WRN TEXAS PANHANDLE...BUT DIFFERS ON
WHETHER THIS BAND WILL DIP INTO OUR CWA BEFORE 6 PM OR SO. WE/LL
MAINTAIN A SLIVER OF RAIN CHANCES GOING ACROSS PARMER COUNTY. EARLY
WED EVENING...ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM ACROSS
THE PERMIAN BASIN...AND SPREAD NEWD WED NIGHT. THUS THE STAGE IS
SET FOR A SQUEEZE PLAY OF SORTS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...CAUGHT IN-
BETWEEN TOO STRONGER AREAS OF FORCING FOR PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH. EVEN SO...CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO BE PRETTY SOLID ACROSS
THE SRN TX PANHANDLE AND EVEN BETTER FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH
PLAINS INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND WE/VE
TRENDED POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR THOSE AREAS...WHILE HOLDING ON TO
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES. TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE ARE STILL LOOKING A BIT TRICKY. SKIES SHOULD BE OVERCAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVING
THROUGH WED NIGHT. STILL...GUIDANCE IS KEEPING TEMPS RELATIVELY
MILD WITH FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL LACK AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER AND THE
RISK OF FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LOW ATTM. OVERNIGHT WED INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WE WOULD EXPECT RAIN TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SNOW AT
LEAST ON THE CAPROCK...AND POSSIBLY INTO MUCH OF THE ROLLING
PLAINS AS WELL. OFF THE CAPROCK...ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
UNLIKELY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WE SHOULD SEE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS. RIGHT NOW WE ARE GOING 1-2
INCHES ACROSS OUR /SNOW BELT/ OF PARMER...CASTRO AND BAILEY
COUNTIES...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT TEMPS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK ON ROADS. A GREATER
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SURFACES TO BECOME ICY AND SLICK THOUGH
MERITS MENTION IN THE HWO. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...THEN FROZEN
PRECIP WOULD CHANGE BACK TO RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TAIL OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE PRETTY QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND DESPITE
NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A DRY FROPA OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        67  30  52  29  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         69  31  52  31  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     69  33  54  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     70  32  58  31  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       71  33  57  33  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   70  33  60  32  45 /   0   0   0   0  20
BROWNFIELD    70  32  59  33  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     72  36  58  34  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          72  36  58  34  49 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  36  62  35  52 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/05

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