Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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505
FXUS64 KLUB 282342 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
642 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL GRADUALLY SWING TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER
THE TAF SITES...WIND WILL SWING TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE IN SPEED
TO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
UA TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND UA RIDGING COMMENCING TO
SPREAD OVERHEAD HAS LED TO CONTINUAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RATHER THIN HIGH CLOUDS/WISPS OF HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE STREAMED IN ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE FLOW ALOFT. LOOKING AT
THE SFC...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE WRN AND
NWRN SOUTH PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
COURTESY OF AN UPTICK IN 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS /THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE/ AND 850 MB TEMPS. AS OF 20Z...KLBB HAD A TEMP OF 86
DEGREES...WHICH IS 4 DEGREES SHY OF THE RECORD SET IN 1963. WITH
SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SUNLIGHT...WE SHALL SEE IF WE CAN TIE/BREAK
THE RECORD. EARLIER THIS MORNING...SFC WINDS WERE FROM A S-SW WIND
DIRECTION BUT HAS SINCE VEERED TO THE N-NW ACROSS ALL BUT THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WHERE S-SW SFC WINDS PERSISTED. THIS WIND SHIFT IS
COURTESY OF A SFC LOW THAT HAS PROGRESSED ESE ACROSS THE FA. MODEL
SOLUTIONS HINT AT THIS SFC LOW BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...WHILST SFC WINDS VEER TO THE E-
SE CWA-WIDE /AND AT TIMES BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/. DUE TO THIS
UPSLOPE SFC REGIME...PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 0.50-0.60 INCH
RANGE PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH COULD LEAD
TO FOGGY CONDITIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE SAID AREA FROM THE
EAST. THE NAM IS MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING SUB-VFR VIS APPROACHING
KCDS...THOUGH SFC WINDS VEERING AROUND TO THE W-NW BY AOA 29/09Z MAY
MITIGATE THIS FROM COMING INTO FRUITION /HOWEVER IT COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL/. WILL HOLD OFF ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR THIS WX PACKAGE
ATTM...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO ANALYZE SATELLITE TRENDS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY.

AN UA DISTURBANCE RACING EAST ACROSS SRN ALBERTA/NRN MONTANA LATE
THIS AFTN...WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SENDING A COLD FRONT DOWN OUR WAY...WITH
SOLUTIONS CONTINUING ITS QUICK ARRIVAL TIME OF IMPINGING ON THE FAR
SRN TX PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHERN ZONES BY AOA 15Z...THE CENTRAL
ZONES BY AOA 18Z AND CLEARING THE CWA AOA 00Z. THIS WILL MAKE FOR AN
INTERESTING TEMP FORECAST AS AN OBVIOUS TEMP-GRADIENT WILL EXIST:
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLY
LOWER 90S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 MB PER 3 HRS WILL RESULT IN NRLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25
MPH...WHICH IS MUCH LESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO.
THE OTHER WX FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS...DUE TO WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING/EQUATING WIND SPEED
CRITERIA /20 MPH/ AND TEMPS BEING ABOVE NORM. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FROPA IS PROGGED TO NOT BE TERRIBLY DRY WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT
RANGE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...CAN NOT RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS WHERE A BRIEF FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING IS LOW ATTM. /29

LONG TERM...
ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH DE-AMPLIFICATION EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY RE-AMPLIFICATION HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DIFFICULT TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CENTERED TUESDAY GIVEN RECENT TRENDS TO FURTHER DAMPEN
THE LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OUR WAY...CURRENTLY
600-700 MILES WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA. LOW LEVEL AIRMASS SHOULD
MOISTEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WIND
COMPONENTS PREVAILING...ALTHOUGH WRF/NAM CERTAINLY LOOKS OVERDONE
THIS REGARDS. SLOWER APPROACH OF THE SHORT-WAVE ALONE REQUIRED
TRIMMING THUNDER MENTION MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FACTOR IN ABOVE
ISSUES AND WE ONLY COULD RETAIN A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER FAVORING
MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY.

AIRMASS SHOULD RETURN MORE SOLIDLY INTO DRY AND WARM MODE WITH
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY ZONAL COMPONENTS ALOFT BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK PACIFIC-TYPE FRONT WEDNESDAY IS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN BUT EVEN SO WOULD RESULT IN VEERING AND DRYING LOWER
LEVELS WITH A SOLID WARMING PUSH. AND WE CANT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SHALLOW FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY MAINLY NORTHEAST PER GFS BUT
DONT SEE THIS ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF. WE HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY WARMER YET EACH DAY THOUGH STILL A COUPLE NOTCHES BELOW
POTENTIAL MAXIMUMS FOR THOSE DAYS. SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN
PROMINENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS MID WEEK.

BY FRIDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE SHOULD CARVE LOWER HEIGHTS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND WILL DRAG NEXT COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD...THIS ONE APPEARS TO HAVE A BETTER SUPPLY OF MODIFIED
CANADIAN OR CANADIAN-PACIFIC AIR SO SHOULD BRING ON A COUPLE
COOLER DAYS. DEEPENING OF A TROUGH TO OUR WEST OVER THE WEEKEND
MIGHT EVENTUALLY ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD LATE WEEKEND OR
EARLY THE NEXT WEEK...BUT SOLUTIONS TOO OUT OF PHASE FOR MORE THAN
A PASSING MEH FOR NOW. /05 RMCQUEEN

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AT LEAST
FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. A WARMER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENTS ALOFT AND PREVAILING SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS UNCERTAIN IF THEY WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT TIME OF YEAR SAYS WE
NEED TO KEEP A LOOKOUT. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        44  73  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
TULIA         47  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     47  76  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     48  80  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       49  80  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  86  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    49  84  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     51  81  46  76 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          52  84  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     55  89  51  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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